I'm confused I thought the pb kippers were saying the raw data was good for nige?
Rob Ford (Britain)@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind
It is, take a look at it.
Rob must mean Q1 vs Q2
If we're going entirely off Question 1 the Lib Dems are completely screwed.
I think Evens is a very nice price for Mr Farage at Corals right now.
Was anyone standing for Tower Hamlets First in the local or general election? If they were, what impact does this have on them? Does their candidature become invalid, because they listed themselves as members of a now defunct party, or is their party affiliation just left blank on the ballot paper?
If Tower Hamlets First ignores this ruling and tries to continue acting like a recognised party - sending observers to polling stations, etc - would they be breaking any laws? In the worst case, arresting a Tower Hamlets First representative at a polling station for illegal behaviour could cause disturbances, and some of the other parties' people may object vigorously if the Tower Hamlets First representatives are allowed to stay.
"The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?"
Someone once said that George Bush was more dangerous than Saddam which was not a value judgement on Bush just that his overwhelming power made him more dangerous.
I think I'd go for Farage for the same reasons. Farage would be impotent. Five years of these irresponsible Tories could damage us all
On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
Most punters put the political litter in the .... er .... litter bin.
There is no excuse for these constituency polls not to have named candidates.
Surely the residents of Hallam know that Clegg is their MP? Ditto, the residents of Thanet South must know that Farage is standing there, or are people really that disengaged from the election a week before it happens?
Most PBers tend to the obsessive where every nuance is hyper analysed and at times given a prominence that is not worthy of more than a passing glance.
Most "average" voters barely give politics a passing a glance.
And there lies the conundrum for the seasoned political forecaster although clearly this is not the case for my ARSE.
Mr. W, the notion that PBers are in any way divergent from the common man is as erroneous a belief as Julian the Apostate's confidence he could re-establish paganism as the dominant religion of Byzantium.
I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.
Indeed. CCHQ should be quietly asking their campaign to stand down in SH.
It seems clear that there should be a deal and Tories should stop campaigning in Hallam and Labour stop campaigning in South Thanet. The only block on this would be if there is a genuine relationship between Clegg and Cameron/Osborne.
Smacks of the 'coupon' ticket to me. Can't see it happening. Bit late anyway surely - people are voting.
What would the election look like now if the Tories and Lib Dems had officially got into bed and campaigned as the Coalition?
I suppose SW would be safely LibDems. Difficult to predict really, as a chunk of really pissed off Tories would surely have gone ukip.
Tim Ross @TimRossDT · 16m 16 minutes ago Nick Clegg says he'll "look at" Ashcroft poll putting him behind Lab in Hallam but insists: "our own polling shows that we are firmly ahead"
I'm confused I thought the pb kippers were saying the raw data was good for nige?
Rob Ford (Britain)@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind
It is, take a look at it.
Rob must mean Q1 vs Q2
If we're going entirely off Question 1 the Lib Dems are completely screwed.
I think Evens is a very nice price for Mr Farage at Corals right now.
Betfair market still fairly bullish on Cleggy's chances - 1.5 or so at the time of writing. I can't imagine a named poll would aid him too much, he's hardly universally loved and those few unaware that he is standing are very unlikely to be the tactical Tory switchers he needs. Related, if I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.
Nah, there are others in the LibDem Party willing to step up to the plate. Clegg out does not imply that a LibDem/ Conservative coalition is off the cards if the numbers add up. It might make the negotiations more difficult though.
Whilst I agree will remain a chance of a Lib/Con coalition, we must remember that the remaining Lib Dem rump will be to the left of Clegg, as is the party's membership. Cable probably would but can you foresee Farron going into coalition with the Tories?
As an aside, if Clegg does lose his seat, what is the protocol for selecting the new Lib Dem leader? They can't faff about too much in the midst of the no doubt chaotic coalition negotiations and/or second vote that are sure to follow the May election.
Tim Ross @TimRossDT · 16m 16 minutes ago Nick Clegg says he'll "look at" Ashcroft poll putting him behind Lab in Hallam but insists: "our own polling shows that we are firmly ahead"
BS. If that was true, he'd release the polls - simple as that.
Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council.
Just sayin'
That saves you fiddling his figures I suppose Sunil
No, no! That's YouGov
But in recent weeks, I've understood why he was "understating" the LDs - he only adds 30% of 2010 LD don't know/ref, as opposed to 50% of Con or Lab. A couple of weeks ago, I went through all Ashcrofts in the ELBOW spreadsheet back to August using the correct LD weighting.
I do not particularly care a monkey's wotsit for the LDs but by what matter of mind reading does he treat LD 'don't knows' different from everybody else's.
I'm confused I thought the pb kippers were saying the raw data was good for nige?
Rob Ford (Britain)@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind
It is, take a look at it.
Rob must mean Q1 vs Q2
If we're going entirely off Question 1 the Lib Dems are completely screwed.
I think Evens is a very nice price for Mr Farage at Corals right now.
thanks for the tip. evens is massive!
Thanks, I neither dislike or like, want to particularly back or lay Farage but am price sensitive on him. When he's named he gets a boost, and the CONs are getting a spiral of silence boost in this poll. But he's too high profile for that really. I've backed all sides of the book here (Except the Lib Dems) - Evens is big, no doubt about it.
"The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?"
Someone once said that George Bush was more dangerous than Saddam which was not a value judgement on Bush just that his overwhelming power made him more dangerous.
I think I'd go for Farage for the same reasons. Farage would be impotent. Five years of these irresponsible Tories could damage us all
That is a no brainer for a lefty like me. Farage, every day of the week. Aside from the entertainment value, Farage represents a significant section of the electorate that are alienated from politics. I don't agree with him one iota, but I firmly believe he deserves his seat on merit.
Was anyone standing for Tower Hamlets First in the local or general election? If they were, what impact does this have on them? Does their candidature become invalid, because they listed themselves as members of a now defunct party, or is their party affiliation just left blank on the ballot paper?
If Tower Hamlets First ignores this ruling and tries to continue acting like a recognised party - sending observers to polling stations, etc - would they be breaking any laws? In the worst case, arresting a Tower Hamlets First representative at a polling station for illegal behaviour could cause disturbances, and some of the other parties' people may object vigorously if the Tower Hamlets First representatives are allowed to stay.
"In the worst case, arresting a Tower Hamlets First representative at a polling station for illegal behaviour could cause disturbances,"
Exactly why they have been removed as a political party. Would be interesting to know how many candidates/ community elders have put religious pressure on their multicultural society to vote one way or another.
Betfair market still fairly bullish on Cleggy's chances - 1.5 or so at the time of writing. I can't imagine a named poll would aid him too much, he's hardly universally loved and those few unaware that he is standing are very unlikely to be the tactical Tory switchers he needs. Related, if I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.
Nah, there are others in the LibDem Party willing to step up to the plate. Clegg out does not imply that a LibDem/ Conservative coalition is off the cards if the numbers add up. It might make the negotiations more difficult though.
Whilst I agree will remain a chance of a Lib/Con coalition, we must remember that the remaining Lib Dem rump will be to the left of Clegg, as is the party's membership. Cable probably would but can you foresee Farron going into coalition with the Tories?
As an aside, if Clegg does lose his seat, what is the protocol for selecting the new Lib Dem leader? They can't faff about too much in the midst of the no doubt chaotic coalition negotiations and/or second vote that are sure to follow the May election.
I think that was covered in Mike Smithson's podcast yesterday (toward the end).
"The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?"
Someone once said that George Bush was more dangerous than Saddam which was not a value judgement on Bush just that his overwhelming power made him more dangerous.
I think I'd go for Farage for the same reasons. Farage would be impotent. Five years of these irresponsible Tories could damage us all
...he deserves his seat on merit.
Arrogant nonsense. Not a single politician 'deserves' their seat.
With S Thanet, I do still think Farage will be understated by "Shy Kippers". Against that though is that there might be room for the Tories to tactically squeeze the Labour vote some more, since this poll will give Tory canvassers conclusive proof that they're best placed to beat him.
The Labour vote in Sheffield Hallam is weird and is clearly an anti-Clegg bloc put together for the express purpose of removing him. If it was in any way reflective of Labour's general popularity this election would be over. My guess is that come the day Clegg will squeeze over the line.
Farage I find more difficult to call but if the Tory vote is on the up generally I fancy their chances. I think evens for him now is not that generous. He should probably be very small odds against.
South Swindon suggests to me that election night is going to be a long haul with plenty of recounts. It is a creditable Labour performance to date suggesting 50+ Labour gains from the Tories and more than a dozen from the Lib Dems. But for Scotland this would a majority but the scale of the defeat there has gone from massive to, err, we need a new scale. This makes largest party quite hard to call but unless there is a major change of heart it makes Ed PM with SNP backing.
The Sunil on Sunday ELBOW team heartily welcome BMG Research to the polling banquet!
We've already added their poll to Wikipedia, and have incorporated their data into the part-ELBOW for the week so far.
The Lab lead in the official tally drops to 0.0% (0.04% to 2 dp!!), and the non-YouGov portion of the tally now shows a Con lead of 1.1%! (cf. Lab lead of 0.9% in YouGov-only)
Does a non YG version make sense? Should you not just average their daily polls for the week and add them in? Mind you, they do not seem to be moving much anyway.
ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
ITV News' latest poll shows Labour are currently leading by three points. Credit: PA
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
This 3% lead on marginals is just enough to get Miliband over the 265 mark to become PM. But with 7 days left, any further losses to the Tories and he's sunk. That doesn't necessarily give the Tories a working government but he's very close to losing his shot at PM (in Nicola's pocket).
"The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?"
Someone once said that George Bush was more dangerous than Saddam which was not a value judgement on Bush just that his overwhelming power made him more dangerous.
I think I'd go for Farage for the same reasons. Farage would be impotent. Five years of these irresponsible Tories could damage us all
You need to watch what those people are putting in your tea.
If there are shy voters who are reluctant to admit who they are really voting for then my theory is that they would be more shy with telephone pollsters than with internet pollsters .
So the difference between the results of internet pollsters and telephone pollsters might reflect who the voters are shy of and by how much.
who is where on the labourdoorstep today so far....ignoring those in their own constituencies
Byrne: Hallam and Loughborough Cooper: Brentford Tristram: Dudley South and Birmingham Yardley Balls: Hove Reeves: Hove Kane (Wythenshawe & Sale East): Bolton West Bridgent Phillipson (one of the Sunderlands MPs): Redcar Bryant: Lincoln McTaggart (Slough): Milton Keynes South Malhotra (Feltham): Brentford Corbyn: Peterborough Twigg: Bury North Jones (Hyndburn): Rossendale St Helens North candidate: Rossendale Kendall: Redditch
Comments
I think Evens is a very nice price for Mr Farage at Corals right now.
If Tower Hamlets First ignores this ruling and tries to continue acting like a recognised party - sending observers to polling stations, etc - would they be breaking any laws? In the worst case, arresting a Tower Hamlets First representative at a polling station for illegal behaviour could cause disturbances, and some of the other parties' people may object vigorously if the Tower Hamlets First representatives are allowed to stay.
"The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?"
Someone once said that George Bush was more dangerous than Saddam which was not a value judgement on Bush just that his overwhelming power made him more dangerous.
I think I'd go for Farage for the same reasons. Farage would be impotent. Five years of these irresponsible Tories could damage us all
Most "average" voters barely give politics a passing a glance.
And there lies the conundrum for the seasoned political forecaster although clearly this is not the case for my ARSE.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/29/betfair_account_recovery_vuln_fixed_hidden_email_form/
Nick Clegg says he'll "look at" Ashcroft poll putting him behind Lab in Hallam but insists: "our own polling shows that we are firmly ahead"
I hope he wasn't commenting about the accuracy of his ARSE when he handed over his dosh.
Our JackW has finally blown his cover and emerged in Glasgow.
As an aside, if Clegg does lose his seat, what is the protocol for selecting the new Lib Dem leader? They can't faff about too much in the midst of the no doubt chaotic coalition negotiations and/or second vote that are sure to follow the May election.
That is a no brainer for a lefty like me. Farage, every day of the week. Aside from the entertainment value, Farage represents a significant section of the electorate that are alienated from politics. I don't agree with him one iota, but I firmly believe he deserves his seat on merit.
Exactly why they have been removed as a political party. Would be interesting to know how many candidates/ community elders have put religious pressure on their multicultural society to vote one way or another.
S Thanet - UKIP gain
S Swindon - CON hold
S Hallam - LD hold
there you go
It's up to the electorate in the constituency.
Con 31% (NC)
Lab 40% (+1)
LD 8% (+1)
UKIP 15% (-3)
Green 5% (+1)
(Figures in brackets show changes from November 2014)
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/itv-news-marginal-seats-poll/
Tantalisingly poised.
"I'll happily call these seats now.
S Thanet - UKIP gain
S Swindon - CON hold
S Hallam - LD hold"
So not plucked from Jack's ARSE but from your own
Farage I find more difficult to call but if the Tory vote is on the up generally I fancy their chances. I think evens for him now is not that generous. He should probably be very small odds against.
South Swindon suggests to me that election night is going to be a long haul with plenty of recounts. It is a creditable Labour performance to date suggesting 50+ Labour gains from the Tories and more than a dozen from the Lib Dems. But for Scotland this would a majority but the scale of the defeat there has gone from massive to, err, we need a new scale. This makes largest party quite hard to call but unless there is a major change of heart it makes Ed PM with SNP backing.
If this was any normal election, Labour would be pretty delighted with our latest poll results.
In the top 50 Conservative held Labour targets seats that we polled, there's a swing of 3.5 % away from the Tories.
That would be enough, if translated into seats, for Labour to take 44 out of the 50 - so that's places like Carlisle, Ipswich and Keighley turning red.
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-04-29/poll-labour-ahead-in-key-tory-held-battleground-seats/
Still seems like Labour did better in the last poll but that sample included 40 seats?
So the difference between the results of internet pollsters and telephone pollsters might reflect who the voters are shy of and by how much.
Byrne: Hallam and Loughborough
Cooper: Brentford
Tristram: Dudley South and Birmingham Yardley
Balls: Hove
Reeves: Hove
Kane (Wythenshawe & Sale East): Bolton West
Bridgent Phillipson (one of the Sunderlands MPs): Redcar
Bryant: Lincoln
McTaggart (Slough): Milton Keynes South
Malhotra (Feltham): Brentford
Corbyn: Peterborough
Twigg: Bury North
Jones (Hyndburn): Rossendale
St Helens North candidate: Rossendale
Kendall: Redditch