On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
Michael Crick@MichaelLCrick·56 secs56 seconds ago Ashcroft polls show Nick Clegg 2% behind Labour in Sheffield Hallam, and Nigel Farage 1% behind Tories in Thanet South
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.
My big problem with those who support voting reform is they just ignore totally the fact we had a referendum on this and it was comprehensively rejected. The SNP are being told the issue was "settled for a generation" when it was a very close result, the voting reform referendum was overwhelmingly rejected but that doesn't seem to matter. At least let a whole Parliament pass before bringing it back up, this is worse.
As for the SNP would they even want a change to the voting system if they win all or vast majority of seats? Yes they previously wanted STV but that was while they were 'hard done by' in Westminster before this breakthrough. Why would the SNP turkeys vote for Christmas and sacrifice most of their MPs in Westminster to Labour.
If I was in the SNP I'd accept winning a relative Scottish landslide and try to keep all those seats and prioritise getting a second independence referendum. Given the indy referendum was close (and had a vow for more reform that the SNP can argue hasn't been delivered) it should surely be re-ran before a voting referendum that was rejected without a promise of any alternative. The SNP have a perfect excuse to turn down reform and keep their MPs rather than give them up - so why should they decide to cut off their own nose instead?
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
Yes I read this as a good poll for Labour. I'm on Clegg but have a gap in Con-LD/Con minority betting which I think comes into play if he loses his seat.
On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
Most punters put the political litter in the .... er .... litter bin.
There is no excuse for these constituency polls not to have named candidates.
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
Yes I read this as a good poll for Labour. I'm on Clegg but have a gap in Con-LD/Con minority betting which I think comes into play if he loses his seat.
On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
Not naming Clegg is probably an advantage for him.
Most punters put the political litter in the .... er .... litter bin.
Yes, and if they continue to do so then they'll never know Farage or Clegg is standing, so naming the candidates would actually make the poll more inaccurate!
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
Yes I read this as a good poll for Labour. I'm on Clegg but have a gap in Con-LD/Con minority betting which I think comes into play if he loses his seat.
How much does "Nick Clegg" add ?
We see a big Q2 shift for Huppert for instance.
Huppert's literature doesn't even mention the LDs - the yellow bird is obviously a drag on his ticket.
Does Ashcroft check for registered voters? I suspect not. Isn't Hallam partly student? Need to be sure that any anti-clegg student voters are actually registered.
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
Yes I read this as a good poll for Labour. I'm on Clegg but have a gap in Con-LD/Con minority betting which I think comes into play if he loses his seat.
How much does "Nick Clegg" add ?
We see a big Q2 shift for Huppert for instance.
Clegg only gets a 6% bonus in Q2.
Yes he gets some of the notoriously tough to shift tactical Tories.
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.
Ashcroft has shown the Lib Dems ahead in Birmingham Yardley (and local elections bear this out). There has been no poll for Leeds NW, although again, local elections have been good for the Lib Dems.
On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
Absolutely. Named candidates may make a difference months out from an election, but who's going to vote in these constituencies that hasn't figured out who's standing?
Clegg obviously engenders a lot of negative emotions on the part of a significant portion of the electorate. Farage is controversial and invokes sympathy/ antipathy but people don't judge him on his perceived record but rather on their understanding of his overall usefulness to their particular political cause. Having him in parliament could be viewed as useful to both Labour and Conservatives. Clegg is of little use to Conservatives and none to Labour supporters because both largely view him as a shameless opportunist that will do anything to cling to power and LibDems have deserted him in large numbers as well.
As a lapsed Tory voter who doesn't like tactical voting on principal - I'd vote Clegg in Sheffield Hallam in a heartbeat if it meant keeping Labour out. Cleggy's almost an adopted Tory these days ;-).
As for Thanet - UKIP need to send word to Labour voters in the seat that if they don't want the Tories to win they are the only ones who can stop them.
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.
Ashcroft has shown the Lib Dems ahead in Birmingham Yardley (and local elections bear this out). There has been no poll for Leeds NW, although again, local elections have been good for the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems also comfortably won local elections lately in Sheffield Hallam, and look what's happening there
The Yardley Ashcroft poll had the Lib Dems miles behind on the generic first question which increasingly I think is a better guide to the Lib Dems' chances.
Trying to occupy the middle ground between a Conservative Party that has in some ways moved to the left and a Labour Party that has moved to the right is a fool's errand. Especially if all you can offer is being the junior partner that will add a little bit of garnish to the dish that will be served to the electorate.
On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
Absolutely. Named candidates may make a difference months out from an election, but who's going to vote in these constituencies that hasn't figured out who's standing?
"I'm going to vote Kipper in my constituency of Thanet South - who's standing for them again ?"
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.
Ashcroft has shown the Lib Dems ahead in Birmingham Yardley (and local elections bear this out). There has been no poll for Leeds NW, although again, local elections have been good for the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems also comfortably won local elections lately in Sheffield Hallam, and look what's happening there
The Yardley Ashcroft poll had the Lib Dems miles behind on the generic first question which increasingly I think is a better guide to the Lib Dems' chances.
Lib Dems were behind on Q1 in Cambridge; Thornbury and Yate; Eastbourne; Kingston; Eastleigh..................
I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.
I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.
From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.
The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.
The problem for Labour is that they are pulling something of an inverse-SNP here. Large swings against the Lib Dems, but small swings against the Tories. They would win many more seats if it were the other way round.
On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
Absolutely. Named candidates may make a difference months out from an election, but who's going to vote in these constituencies that hasn't figured out who's standing?
No serious pollster in the US elections doesn't have named candidates in polling right down to the local dog catcher.
UK constituency polling until the Ashcroft era has been rare and frankly pretty Ed. Such an anomaly needs to addressed for future elections.
The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
Will be a great test of UKIP and Goodwin-Ford's hypothesis that UKIP is now a vehicle for WWC former Lab voters. Gut feel is that they will prefer Farage to a Tory, holding nose possibly.
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.
Ashcroft has shown the Lib Dems ahead in Birmingham Yardley (and local elections bear this out). There has been no poll for Leeds NW, although again, local elections have been good for the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems also comfortably won local elections lately in Sheffield Hallam, and look what's happening there
The Yardley Ashcroft poll had the Lib Dems miles behind on the generic first question which increasingly I think is a better guide to the Lib Dems' chances.
Lib Dems were behind on Q1 in Cambridge; Thornbury and Yate; Eastbourne; Kingston; Eastleigh..................
Well yes, but T&Y, Eastbourne and Eastleigh had the Lib Dems so infinitely far ahead on Q2 that I'm leaning towards holds, albeit not by such huge margins.
On the other hand, in Yardley Hemming was only ahead by 3% even on Q2, and that coupled with being 19% behind on Q1, i think he'll land somewhere inbetween - a Labour gain by about 5-8%.
On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
Most punters put the political litter in the .... er .... litter bin.
There is no excuse for these constituency polls not to have named candidates.
Surely the residents of Hallam know that Clegg is their MP? Ditto, the residents of Thanet South must know that Farage is standing there, or are people really that disengaged from the election a week before it happens?
And I bet PM Miliband would relish packing him off to run some far flung colonial outpost after the election too...
Bad news for Cameron. He really must urge the Hallam Tories to cease and desist with immediate effect, or actively go out and encourage Tories to back Clegg. The slender hopes of Coalition Continued require him to be returned.
On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
Most punters put the political litter in the .... er .... litter bin.
There is no excuse for these constituency polls not to have named candidates.
Everyone in Thanet S who is sober and not senile knows Farage is standing!!
I see a parallel between the LibDems and the German Free Democrats (Liberals). They enjoyed their best ever performance in 2010 and were voted out of parliament for the first time ever in 2014 after 4 years in office as the junior partner in a conservative/ liberal coalition. That obviously won't happen to the LibDems but they will be reduced to a small rump.
On the podcast in the post earlier today (very interesting by the way) the host Keiran pointed out that amongst private sector employees the conservatives are 7% ahead. Swindon has very high levels of employment so I think it will be a Tory hold.
My big problem with those who support voting reform is they just ignore totally the fact we had a referendum on this and it was comprehensively rejected. The SNP are being told the issue was "settled for a generation" when it was a very close result, the voting reform referendum was overwhelmingly rejected but that doesn't seem to matter. At least let a whole Parliament pass before bringing it back up, this is worse.
AV is not Propotional Representation or anything like PR.
It is a gerrymander of the FPTP system to benefit the third party.
Betfair market still fairly bullish on Cleggy's chances - 1.5 or so at the time of writing. I can't imagine a named poll would aid him too much, he's hardly universally loved and those few unaware that he is standing are very unlikely to be the tactical Tory switchers he needs. Related, if I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.
Ashcroft has shown the Lib Dems ahead in Birmingham Yardley (and local elections bear this out). There has been no poll for Leeds NW, although again, local elections have been good for the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems also comfortably won local elections lately in Sheffield Hallam, and look what's happening there
The Yardley Ashcroft poll had the Lib Dems miles behind on the generic first question which increasingly I think is a better guide to the Lib Dems' chances.
Lib Dems were behind on Q1 in Cambridge; Thornbury and Yate; Eastbourne; Kingston; Eastleigh..................
Well yes, but T&Y, Eastbourne and Eastleigh had the Lib Dems so infinitely far ahead on Q2 that I'm leaning towards holds, albeit not by such huge margins.
On the other hand, in Yardley Hemming was only ahead by 3% even on Q2, and that coupled with being 19% behind on Q1, i think he'll land somewhere inbetween - a Labour gain by about 5-8%.
If Q1 is absolubtely correct then I'm stuck a few quid.
Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's pro-European, centrist Liberal Democrats have long resisted [an EU referendum], which they consider unnecessary. But in a Reuters interview, Clegg made clear the issue would not be a show-stopper.
"I am not going to draw a red line against having a referendum," he said on Monday afternoon, talking in the back of the yellow "battle bus" he uses to criss-cross the country.
I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.
Indeed. CCHQ should be quietly asking their campaign to stand down in SH.
To equate the indyref with the referendum on AV voting seems absurd. One was essential when the vote was about the break-up of the UK. The AV referendum was about how best to interpret voters' intentions--a relatively unimportant bit of clerking.
The only connection was that both were decided by a referendum. We needed one in the first case, we did not in the second.
Betfair market still fairly bullish on Cleggy's chances - 1.5 or so at the time of writing. I can't imagine a named poll would aid him too much, he's hardly universally loved and those few unaware that he is standing are very unlikely to be the tactical Tory switchers he needs. Related, if I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.
Nah, there are others in the LibDem Party willing to step up to the plate. Clegg out does not imply that a LibDem/ Conservative coalition is off the cards if the numbers add up. It might make the negotiations more difficult though.
I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.
I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.
From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.
The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
That might hold some sway if he wasn't 9-11% clear I polls that name him as the candidate
Survation are UKIP friendly ok, but not that friendly
My big problem with those who support voting reform is they just ignore totally the fact we had a referendum on this and it was comprehensively rejected. The SNP are being told the issue was "settled for a generation" when it was a very close result, the voting reform referendum was overwhelmingly rejected but that doesn't seem to matter. At least let a whole Parliament pass before bringing it back up, this is worse.
AV is not Propotional Representation or anything like PR.
It is a gerrymander of the FPTP system to benefit the third party.
Why do we need voting reform - quite happy with the local MP representing us - not some faceless party droid on a list system.
I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.
I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.
From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.
The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
There's an answer to that question. 20% of Labour voters from 2010 now support UKIP, while 7% now support the Conservatives.
And I bet PM Miliband would relish packing him off to run some far flung colonial outpost after the election too...
Bad news for Cameron. He really must urge the Hallam Tories to cease and desist with immediate effect, or actively go out and encourage Tories to back Clegg. The slender hopes of Coalition Continued require him to be returned.
Patten's majority was pretty damn slim (round about 1,000 from memory). It's weird he's become the poster boy for a senior figure losing his seat, when the cushion of said seat was devoid of stuffing.
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.
The problem for Labour is that they are pulling something of an inverse-SNP here. Large swings against the Lib Dems, but small swings against the Tories. They would win many more seats if it were the other way round.
Labour small swings against the Tories are actually just diluted versions of their large swings against the LDs. That's where their extra votes are coming from.
This excerpt on tactical voting is worth considering:
"What we do discover is that while some Tory and Liberal Democrat supporters say that they would vote Labour if they thought the party had a chance of winning in their constituency, only around a third or so would do so. At the same though around one in ten Tory and Liberal Democrat supporters say that they would switch to the SNP if they thought the nationalists had a chance of winning locally. That suggests that in a Labour-SNP contest tactical switching would at most be worth no more than one-fifth or so of the Conservative and Liberal Democrat vote locally."
I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.
I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.
From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.
The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
There's an answer to that question. 20% of Labour voters from 2010 now support UKIP, while 7% now support the Conservatives.
Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's pro-European, centrist Liberal Democrats have long resisted [an EU referendum], which they consider unnecessary. But in a Reuters interview, Clegg made clear the issue would not be a show-stopper.
"I am not going to draw a red line against having a referendum," he said on Monday afternoon, talking in the back of the yellow "battle bus" he uses to criss-cross the country.
I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.
Indeed. CCHQ should be quietly asking their campaign to stand down in SH.
It seems clear that there should be a deal and Tories should stop campaigning in Hallam and Labour stop campaigning in South Thanet. The only block on this would be if there is a genuine relationship between Clegg and Cameron/Osborne.
I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.
I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.
From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.
The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
That might hold some sway if he wasn't 9-11% clear I polls that name him as the candidate
Survation are UKIP friendly ok, but not that friendly
I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.
I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.
From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.
The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
That might hold some sway if he wasn't 9-11% clear I polls that name him as the candidate
Survation are UKIP friendly ok, but not that friendly
There won't be much tactical voting in Thanet. Let's remember this has always been a Tory/Lab battlefield where people are very much in one camp or the other. There won't be many who will switch against or behind Farage.
Ashcroft overstates UKIP, Survation understates so let's say he's 4% ahead.
I'm confused I thought the pb kippers were saying the raw data was good for nige?
Rob Ford (Britain)@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind
Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's pro-European, centrist Liberal Democrats have long resisted [an EU referendum], which they consider unnecessary. But in a Reuters interview, Clegg made clear the issue would not be a show-stopper.
"I am not going to draw a red line against having a referendum," he said on Monday afternoon, talking in the back of the yellow "battle bus" he uses to criss-cross the country.
Interesting to see the LDs softening for Coalition 2 - The Return. Dave had better get his team in Hallam delivering yellow leaflets for the next week. Maybe Clegg could reciprocate somewhere else, Morley and Outwood for example?
I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.
Indeed. CCHQ should be quietly asking their campaign to stand down in SH.
It seems clear that there should be a deal and Tories should stop campaigning in Hallam and Labour stop campaigning in South Thanet. The only block on this would be if there is a genuine relationship between Clegg and Cameron/Osborne.
Smacks of the 'coupon' ticket to me. Can't see it happening. Bit late anyway surely - people are voting.
The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.
In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.
The problem for Labour is that they are pulling something of an inverse-SNP here. Large swings against the Lib Dems, but small swings against the Tories. They would win many more seats if it were the other way round.
Labour small swings against the Tories are actually just diluted versions of their large swings against the LDs. That's where their extra votes are coming from.
In South Swindon the Liberal Democrats are down 12 points, but Labour are up just 2.
Clegg and Cameron didn't manage to arrange a formal coupon election, but a lot of their voters are doing their best to make it happen.
The Sunil on Sunday ELBOW team heartily welcome BMG Research to the polling banquet!
We've already added their poll to Wikipedia, and have incorporated their data into the part-ELBOW for the week so far.
The Lab lead in the official tally drops to 0.0% (0.04% to 2 dp!!), and the non-YouGov portion of the tally now shows a Con lead of 1.1%! (cf. Lab lead of 0.9% in YouGov-only)
I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.
I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.
From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.
The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
There's an answer to that question. 20% of Labour voters from 2010 now support UKIP, while 7% now support the Conservatives.
I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.
Indeed. CCHQ should be quietly asking their campaign to stand down in SH.
It seems clear that there should be a deal and Tories should stop campaigning in Hallam and Labour stop campaigning in South Thanet. The only block on this would be if there is a genuine relationship between Clegg and Cameron/Osborne.
Smacks of the 'coupon' ticket to me. Can't see it happening. Bit late anyway surely - people are voting.
What would the election look like now if the Tories and Lib Dems had officially got into bed and campaigned as the Coalition?
I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.
Indeed. CCHQ should be quietly asking their campaign to stand down in SH.
It seems clear that there should be a deal and Tories should stop campaigning in Hallam and Labour stop campaigning in South Thanet. The only block on this would be if there is a genuine relationship between Clegg and Cameron/Osborne.
Smacks of the 'coupon' ticket to me. Can't see it happening. Bit late anyway surely - people are voting.
But if the Tories stop campaigning in Hallam it will help Clegg, while if Labour stop campaigning in Thanet it will help the Tories.
I'm confused I thought the pb kippers were saying the raw data was good for nige?
Rob Ford (Britain)@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind
I'm confused I thought the pb kippers were saying the raw data was good for nige?
Rob Ford (Britain)@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind
I'm confused I thought the pb kippers were saying the raw data was good for nige?
Rob Ford (Britain)@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind
And I bet PM Miliband would relish packing him off to run some far flung colonial outpost after the election too...
Bad news for Cameron. He really must urge the Hallam Tories to cease and desist with immediate effect, or actively go out and encourage Tories to back Clegg. The slender hopes of Coalition Continued require him to be returned.
Patten's majority was pretty damn slim (round about 1,000 from memory). It's weird he's become the poster boy for a senior figure losing his seat, when the cushion of said seat was devoid of stuffing.
Chris P said it was the best thing that ever happened to him, losing his seat. The cheers from the Eurosceptic Toryboys as the results were given was the defining feature of the 92 election, and set the tone for what was going to happen to the Tories.
Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council.
Just sayin'
That saves you fiddling his figures I suppose Sunil
No, no! That's YouGov
But in recent weeks, I've understood why he was "understating" the LDs - he only adds 30% of 2010 LD don't know/ref, as opposed to 50% of Con or Lab. A couple of weeks ago, I went through all Ashcrofts in the ELBOW spreadsheet back to August using the correct LD weighting.
Comments
Pretty much no change. UKIP vote in South Swindon is especially interesting.
No named candidates a week out from the election.
Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.
Ashcroft's marginals seem to be unfavourable to UKIP, but I personally believe it's close rather than Farage streaking ahead as Survation have.
South Swindon is near identical to last time, no sign of much swingback there.
Clegg less so.
Michael Crick@MichaelLCrick·56 secs56 seconds ago
Ashcroft polls show Nick Clegg 2% behind Labour in Sheffield Hallam, and Nigel Farage 1% behind Tories in Thanet South
In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.
In theory Swindon is Labour 288 and Tory 273 so the UKIP vote should be being squeezed.
Much fun ahead..
How much does "Nick Clegg" add ?
We see a big Q2 shift for Huppert for instance.
There is no excuse for these constituency polls not to have named candidates.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/ipsos-mori-find-a-swing-to-the-snp-too/
Clegg is getting the spiral of silence boost whereas Farage isn't. The CONs get it in Thanet South but they have no incumbency.
Having said that lack of named candidates here is crazy.
Does anybody?
As for Thanet - UKIP need to send word to Labour voters in the seat that if they don't want the Tories to win they are the only ones who can stop them.
The Yardley Ashcroft poll had the Lib Dems miles behind on the generic first question which increasingly I think is a better guide to the Lib Dems' chances.
Said no voter in the booth ever.
I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.
From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.
The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
UK constituency polling until the Ashcroft era has been rare and frankly pretty Ed. Such an anomaly needs to addressed for future elections.
On the other hand, in Yardley Hemming was only ahead by 3% even on Q2, and that coupled with being 19% behind on Q1, i think he'll land somewhere inbetween - a Labour gain by about 5-8%.
Ditto, the residents of Thanet South must know that Farage is standing there, or are people really that disengaged from the election a week before it happens?
And I bet PM Miliband would relish packing him off to run some far flung colonial outpost after the election too...
Bad news for Cameron. He really must urge the Hallam Tories to cease and desist with immediate effect, or actively go out and encourage Tories to back Clegg. The slender hopes of Coalition Continued require him to be returned.
It is a gerrymander of the FPTP system to benefit the third party.
Though Uncle Vince might well pay for it.
Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's pro-European, centrist Liberal Democrats have long resisted [an EU referendum], which they consider unnecessary. But in a Reuters interview, Clegg made clear the issue would not be a show-stopper.
"I am not going to draw a red line against having a referendum," he said on Monday afternoon, talking in the back of the yellow "battle bus" he uses to criss-cross the country.
http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2015/4/29/potential-ally-signals-could-back-camerons-eu-referendum-plan
The only connection was that both were decided by a referendum. We needed one in the first case, we did not in the second.
Survation are UKIP friendly ok, but not that friendly
"What we do discover is that while some Tory and Liberal Democrat supporters say that they would vote Labour if they thought the party had a chance of winning in their constituency, only around a third or so would do so. At the same though around one in ten Tory and Liberal Democrat supporters say that they would switch to the SNP if they thought the nationalists had a chance of winning locally. That suggests that in a Labour-SNP contest tactical switching would at most be worth no more than one-fifth or so of the Conservative and Liberal Democrat vote locally."
Source? Does not mesh with the data I have.
Good Spot. Clearly positioning for Coalition II the sequel.
are people really that disengaged from the election a week before it happens?
There was a guy on the radio this morning who thought that Nick Clegg was the Prime Minister.
Corals have gone Evens Farage.
I'm on.
Everyone in Thanet S who is sober and not senile knows Farage is standing!!
And everyone who is not sober and senile is voting for him...?
Sorry! Couldn't help myself.
Ashcroft overstates UKIP, Survation understates so let's say he's 4% ahead.
Just sayin'
Rob Ford (Britain)@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago
UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind
Interesting to see the LDs softening for Coalition 2 - The Return. Dave had better get his team in Hallam delivering yellow leaflets for the next week. Maybe Clegg could reciprocate somewhere else, Morley and Outwood for example?
Clegg and Cameron didn't manage to arrange a formal coupon election, but a lot of their voters are doing their best to make it happen.
We've already added their poll to Wikipedia, and have incorporated their data into the part-ELBOW for the week so far.
The Lab lead in the official tally drops to 0.0% (0.04% to 2 dp!!), and the non-YouGov portion of the tally now shows a Con lead of 1.1%! (cf. Lab lead of 0.9% in YouGov-only)
@Tissue_Price. I like their data table!
What's in the deal for Labour?
But in recent weeks, I've understood why he was "understating" the LDs - he only adds 30% of 2010 LD don't know/ref, as opposed to 50% of Con or Lab. A couple of weeks ago, I went through all Ashcrofts in the ELBOW spreadsheet back to August using the correct LD weighting.