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SystemSystem Posts: 12,677
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Both Farage and Clegg set to lose according to new Ashcroft polling

Sheffield Hallam
CON 15
LAB 37
LD 36
UKIP 7
GN 4

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Comments

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Surprising how consistent those polls are.

    Pretty much no change. UKIP vote in South Swindon is especially interesting.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    All on a knife edge though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    Con and UKIP are dead-level, in Thanet South, before adjustment for don't knows/won't says.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Pong said:

    Surprising how consistent those polls are.

    Pretty much no change. UKIP vote in South Swindon is especially interesting.

    The swing in Hallam is almost identical to the Bristol West swing.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    This is with no named candidates. Decent chance Farage and Clegg are both leading in reality.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    If the candidates were named, I suspect it would favour both Clegg and Farage slightly.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Being visible in the campaign doesn't seem to have helped Clegg. There has to be a real danger he will lose his seat.

    Ashcroft's marginals seem to be unfavourable to UKIP, but I personally believe it's close rather than Farage streaking ahead as Survation have.

    South Swindon is near identical to last time, no sign of much swingback there.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Has Clegg been able to spend much time campaigning in his seat?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited April 2015
    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Farage looks fine to me.

    Clegg less so.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Artist said:

    Being visible in the campaign doesn't seem to have helped Clegg. There has to be a real danger he will lose his seat.

    Ashcroft's marginals seem to be unfavourable to UKIP, but I personally believe it's close rather than Farage streaking ahead as Survation have.

    South Swindon is near identical to last time, no sign of much swingback there.

    Ashcroft or Survation have their polling reputations on the line here! The Thanet South difference is huge.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    All three polls are indistinguishable from dead heats, but will be most useful as tactical-vote bait.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Basic maths fail

    Michael Crick‏@MichaelLCrick·56 secs56 seconds ago
    Ashcroft polls show Nick Clegg 2% behind Labour in Sheffield Hallam, and Nigel Farage 1% behind Tories in Thanet South
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Farage looks fine to me.

    Clegg less so.

    Really? I read it the other way around.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    From end of previous thread, why would the SNP want to reform Westminster rather than try to leave it?
    Philip_Thompson said:

    My big problem with those who support voting reform is they just ignore totally the fact we had a referendum on this and it was comprehensively rejected. The SNP are being told the issue was "settled for a generation" when it was a very close result, the voting reform referendum was overwhelmingly rejected but that doesn't seem to matter. At least let a whole Parliament pass before bringing it back up, this is worse.

    As for the SNP would they even want a change to the voting system if they win all or vast majority of seats? Yes they previously wanted STV but that was while they were 'hard done by' in Westminster before this breakthrough. Why would the SNP turkeys vote for Christmas and sacrifice most of their MPs in Westminster to Labour.

    If I was in the SNP I'd accept winning a relative Scottish landslide and try to keep all those seats and prioritise getting a second independence referendum. Given the indy referendum was close (and had a vow for more reform that the SNP can argue hasn't been delivered) it should surely be re-ran before a voting referendum that was rejected without a promise of any alternative. The SNP have a perfect excuse to turn down reform and keep their MPs rather than give them up - so why should they decide to cut off their own nose instead?

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pong said:

    Surprising how consistent those polls are.

    Pretty much no change. UKIP vote in South Swindon is especially interesting.

    It is a bit higher than electoralcalculus has it (and LA seem to underestimate UKIP votes compared to other pollers - of course he could be correct.)

    In theory Swindon is Labour 288 and Tory 273 so the UKIP vote should be being squeezed.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Naming Farage in the polling question would be just as likely to put people into the Tory column as in the Ukip column
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ok ignoring MoE and not being named - these are hardly Sturgeonesque majorities that you would expect Farage to be creaming in.

    Much fun ahead..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    edited April 2015
    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    Yes I read this as a good poll for Labour. I'm on Clegg but have a gap in Con-LD/Con minority betting which I think comes into play if he loses his seat.

    How much does "Nick Clegg" add ?

    We see a big Q2 shift for Huppert for instance.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
    Most punters put the political litter in the .... er .... litter bin.

    There is no excuse for these constituency polls not to have named candidates.

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    Yes I read this as a good poll for Labour. I'm on Clegg but have a gap in Con-LD/Con minority betting which I think comes into play if he loses his seat.

    How much does "Nick Clegg" add ?

    We see a big Q2 shift for Huppert for instance.
    Clegg only gets a 6% bonus in Q2.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,578
    Unnamed UKIP candidate 2% ahead in Thanet South on raw data
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
    Not naming Clegg is probably an advantage for him.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    John Curtice's thoughts on the Ipsos MORI Scottish poll:

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/ipsos-mori-find-a-swing-to-the-snp-too/
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    JackW said:

    Most punters put the political litter in the .... er .... litter bin.

    Yes, and if they continue to do so then they'll never know Farage or Clegg is standing, so naming the candidates would actually make the poll more inaccurate!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    Yes I read this as a good poll for Labour. I'm on Clegg but have a gap in Con-LD/Con minority betting which I think comes into play if he loses his seat.

    How much does "Nick Clegg" add ?

    We see a big Q2 shift for Huppert for instance.
    Huppert's literature doesn't even mention the LDs - the yellow bird is obviously a drag on his ticket.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Farage looks fine to me.

    Clegg less so.

    Really? I read it the other way around.
    Assume their name boosts both equally.

    Clegg is getting the spiral of silence boost whereas Farage isn't. The CONs get it in Thanet South but they have no incumbency.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Farage looks fine to me.

    Clegg less so.

    Really? I read it the other way around.
    Deffo Clegg more in trouble. Compare tables 5 and 6, Clegg 2% behind in both, Farage not behind in either.

    Having said that lack of named candidates here is crazy.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,912
    Does Ashcroft check for registered voters? I suspect not. Isn't Hallam partly student? Need to be sure that any anti-clegg student voters are actually registered.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    Yes I read this as a good poll for Labour. I'm on Clegg but have a gap in Con-LD/Con minority betting which I think comes into play if he loses his seat.

    How much does "Nick Clegg" add ?

    We see a big Q2 shift for Huppert for instance.
    Clegg only gets a 6% bonus in Q2.
    Yes he gets some of the notoriously tough to shift tactical Tories.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.

    Ashcroft has shown the Lib Dems ahead in Birmingham Yardley (and local elections bear this out). There has been no poll for Leeds NW, although again, local elections have been good for the Lib Dems.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
    Absolutely. Named candidates may make a difference months out from an election, but who's going to vote in these constituencies that hasn't figured out who's standing?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Does Ashcroft check for registered voters?

    Does anybody?
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Clegg obviously engenders a lot of negative emotions on the part of a significant portion of the electorate. Farage is controversial and invokes sympathy/ antipathy but people don't judge him on his perceived record but rather on their understanding of his overall usefulness to their particular political cause. Having him in parliament could be viewed as useful to both Labour and Conservatives. Clegg is of little use to Conservatives and none to Labour supporters because both largely view him as a shameless opportunist that will do anything to cling to power and LibDems have deserted him in large numbers as well.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    edited April 2015
    As a lapsed Tory voter who doesn't like tactical voting on principal - I'd vote Clegg in Sheffield Hallam in a heartbeat if it meant keeping Labour out. Cleggy's almost an adopted Tory these days ;-).

    As for Thanet - UKIP need to send word to Labour voters in the seat that if they don't want the Tories to win they are the only ones who can stop them.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Farage looks fine to me.

    Clegg less so.

    Really? I read it the other way around.
    Assume their name boosts both equally.

    Clegg is getting the spiral of silence boost whereas Farage isn't. The CONs get it in Thanet South but they have no incumbency.
    I was thinking more in terms of future vote shifts. I expect Con to poll under 10% in Hallam.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.

    Ashcroft has shown the Lib Dems ahead in Birmingham Yardley (and local elections bear this out). There has been no poll for Leeds NW, although again, local elections have been good for the Lib Dems.
    The Lib Dems also comfortably won local elections lately in Sheffield Hallam, and look what's happening there :p

    The Yardley Ashcroft poll had the Lib Dems miles behind on the generic first question which increasingly I think is a better guide to the Lib Dems' chances.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Farage looks fine to me.

    Clegg less so.

    Really? I read it the other way around.
    Assume their name boosts both equally.

    Clegg is getting the spiral of silence boost whereas Farage isn't. The CONs get it in Thanet South but they have no incumbency.
    I was thinking more in terms of future vote shifts. I expect Con to poll under 10% in Hallam.
    They'll get over 10%.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Trying to occupy the middle ground between a Conservative Party that has in some ways moved to the left and a Labour Party that has moved to the right is a fool's errand. Especially if all you can offer is being the junior partner that will add a little bit of garnish to the dish that will be served to the electorate.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
    Absolutely. Named candidates may make a difference months out from an election, but who's going to vote in these constituencies that hasn't figured out who's standing?
    "I'm going to vote Kipper in my constituency of Thanet South - who's standing for them again ?"

    Said no voter in the booth ever.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    edited April 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.

    Ashcroft has shown the Lib Dems ahead in Birmingham Yardley (and local elections bear this out). There has been no poll for Leeds NW, although again, local elections have been good for the Lib Dems.
    The Lib Dems also comfortably won local elections lately in Sheffield Hallam, and look what's happening there :p

    The Yardley Ashcroft poll had the Lib Dems miles behind on the generic first question which increasingly I think is a better guide to the Lib Dems' chances.
    Lib Dems were behind on Q1 in Cambridge; Thornbury and Yate; Eastbourne; Kingston; Eastleigh..................
  • RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.

    I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.

    From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.

    The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.

    The problem for Labour is that they are pulling something of an inverse-SNP here. Large swings against the Lib Dems, but small swings against the Tories. They would win many more seats if it were the other way round.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    RepublicanTory said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.
    Whereas Clegg is known to be popular? Hmmmm
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
    Absolutely. Named candidates may make a difference months out from an election, but who's going to vote in these constituencies that hasn't figured out who's standing?
    No serious pollster in the US elections doesn't have named candidates in polling right down to the local dog catcher.

    UK constituency polling until the Ashcroft era has been rare and frankly pretty Ed. Such an anomaly needs to addressed for future elections.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    edited April 2015
    RepublicanTory said:

    JackW said:



    The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?

    Will be a great test of UKIP and Goodwin-Ford's hypothesis that UKIP is now a vehicle for WWC former Lab voters. Gut feel is that they will prefer Farage to a Tory, holding nose possibly.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,335
    Is that heading correct - looks as 31% of Tories were backing Clegg.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.

    Ashcroft has shown the Lib Dems ahead in Birmingham Yardley (and local elections bear this out). There has been no poll for Leeds NW, although again, local elections have been good for the Lib Dems.
    The Lib Dems also comfortably won local elections lately in Sheffield Hallam, and look what's happening there :p

    The Yardley Ashcroft poll had the Lib Dems miles behind on the generic first question which increasingly I think is a better guide to the Lib Dems' chances.
    Lib Dems were behind on Q1 in Cambridge; Thornbury and Yate; Eastbourne; Kingston; Eastleigh..................
    Well yes, but T&Y, Eastbourne and Eastleigh had the Lib Dems so infinitely far ahead on Q2 that I'm leaning towards holds, albeit not by such huge margins.

    On the other hand, in Yardley Hemming was only ahead by 3% even on Q2, and that coupled with being 19% behind on Q1, i think he'll land somewhere inbetween - a Labour gain by about 5-8%.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,871
    JackW said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
    Most punters put the political litter in the .... er .... litter bin.

    There is no excuse for these constituency polls not to have named candidates.

    Surely the residents of Hallam know that Clegg is their MP?
    Ditto, the residents of Thanet South must know that Farage is standing there, or are people really that disengaged from the election a week before it happens?
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,180
    edited April 2015
    Looks like Clegg might be heading for a Patten.

    And I bet PM Miliband would relish packing him off to run some far flung colonial outpost after the election too...

    Bad news for Cameron. He really must urge the Hallam Tories to cease and desist with immediate effect, or actively go out and encourage Tories to back Clegg. The slender hopes of Coalition Continued require him to be returned.
  • RepublicanToryRepublicanTory Posts: 563
    JackW said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    On the other hand if anyone in these heavily-leafletted and canvassed seats hasn't yet figured out that Clegg/Farage is standing, then he or she is probably not the voting sort.
    Most punters put the political litter in the .... er .... litter bin.

    There is no excuse for these constituency polls not to have named candidates.

    Everyone in Thanet S who is sober and not senile knows Farage is standing!!
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    I see a parallel between the LibDems and the German Free Democrats (Liberals). They enjoyed their best ever performance in 2010 and were voted out of parliament for the first time ever in 2014 after 4 years in office as the junior partner in a conservative/ liberal coalition. That obviously won't happen to the LibDems but they will be reduced to a small rump.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    On the podcast in the post earlier today (very interesting by the way) the host Keiran pointed out that amongst private sector employees the conservatives are 7% ahead. Swindon has very high levels of employment so I think it will be a Tory hold.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    LibDems to get less than 20 seats is one of the best markets out there.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Philip_Thompson said:

    My big problem with those who support voting reform is they just ignore totally the fact we had a referendum on this and it was comprehensively rejected. The SNP are being told the issue was "settled for a generation" when it was a very close result, the voting reform referendum was overwhelmingly rejected but that doesn't seem to matter. At least let a whole Parliament pass before bringing it back up, this is worse.

    AV is not Propotional Representation or anything like PR.

    It is a gerrymander of the FPTP system to benefit the third party.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Had a look on the ipsos mori website and cannot find last voting intention. Anyone link or provide scores
  • RaRaRasputinRaRaRasputin Posts: 48
    Betfair market still fairly bullish on Cleggy's chances - 1.5 or so at the time of writing. I can't imagine a named poll would aid him too much, he's hardly universally loved and those few unaware that he is standing are very unlikely to be the tactical Tory switchers he needs. Related, if I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Danny565 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.

    Ashcroft has shown the Lib Dems ahead in Birmingham Yardley (and local elections bear this out). There has been no poll for Leeds NW, although again, local elections have been good for the Lib Dems.
    The Lib Dems also comfortably won local elections lately in Sheffield Hallam, and look what's happening there :p

    The Yardley Ashcroft poll had the Lib Dems miles behind on the generic first question which increasingly I think is a better guide to the Lib Dems' chances.
    Lib Dems were behind on Q1 in Cambridge; Thornbury and Yate; Eastbourne; Kingston; Eastleigh..................
    Well yes, but T&Y, Eastbourne and Eastleigh had the Lib Dems so infinitely far ahead on Q2 that I'm leaning towards holds, albeit not by such huge margins.

    On the other hand, in Yardley Hemming was only ahead by 3% even on Q2, and that coupled with being 19% behind on Q1, i think he'll land somewhere inbetween - a Labour gain by about 5-8%.
    If Q1 is absolubtely correct then I'm stuck a few quid.

    Though Uncle Vince might well pay for it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Rasputin.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Did we miss this?

    Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's pro-European, centrist Liberal Democrats have long resisted [an EU referendum], which they consider unnecessary. But in a Reuters interview, Clegg made clear the issue would not be a show-stopper.

    "I am not going to draw a red line against having a referendum," he said on Monday afternoon, talking in the back of the yellow "battle bus" he uses to criss-cross the country.

    http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2015/4/29/potential-ally-signals-could-back-camerons-eu-referendum-plan
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/593435568433975297
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,050
    Tight as a camel's bottom in a sandstorm (if you'll excuse me quoting Rowen Atkinson)
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Chris123 said:

    LibDems to get less than 20 seats is one of the best markets out there.

    I agree. I could only come up with 13 holds on the prediction game. Even with a few incumbents holding on it could be a good bet
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    RaRaRasputin said:

    I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.

    Indeed. CCHQ should be quietly asking their campaign to stand down in SH.
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited April 2015
    To equate the indyref with the referendum on AV voting seems absurd. One was essential when the vote was about the break-up of the UK. The AV referendum was about how best to interpret voters' intentions--a relatively unimportant bit of clerking.

    The only connection was that both were decided by a referendum. We needed one in the first case, we did not in the second.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    RaRaRasputin said:

    Betfair market still fairly bullish on Cleggy's chances - 1.5 or so at the time of writing. I can't imagine a named poll would aid him too much, he's hardly universally loved and those few unaware that he is standing are very unlikely to be the tactical Tory switchers he needs. Related, if I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.

    Nah, there are others in the LibDem Party willing to step up to the plate. Clegg out does not imply that a LibDem/ Conservative coalition is off the cards if the numbers add up. It might make the negotiations more difficult though.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,578
    RepublicanTory said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.

    I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.

    From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.

    The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
    That might hold some sway if he wasn't 9-11% clear I polls that name him as the candidate

    Survation are UKIP friendly ok, but not that friendly
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dair said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    My big problem with those who support voting reform is they just ignore totally the fact we had a referendum on this and it was comprehensively rejected. The SNP are being told the issue was "settled for a generation" when it was a very close result, the voting reform referendum was overwhelmingly rejected but that doesn't seem to matter. At least let a whole Parliament pass before bringing it back up, this is worse.

    AV is not Propotional Representation or anything like PR.

    It is a gerrymander of the FPTP system to benefit the third party.
    Why do we need voting reform - quite happy with the local MP representing us - not some faceless party droid on a list system.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    RepublicanTory said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.

    I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.

    From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.

    The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
    There's an answer to that question. 20% of Labour voters from 2010 now support UKIP, while 7% now support the Conservatives.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited April 2015
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Looks like Clegg might be heading for a Patten.

    And I bet PM Miliband would relish packing him off to run some far flung colonial outpost after the election too...

    Bad news for Cameron. He really must urge the Hallam Tories to cease and desist with immediate effect, or actively go out and encourage Tories to back Clegg. The slender hopes of Coalition Continued require him to be returned.

    Patten's majority was pretty damn slim (round about 1,000 from memory). It's weird he's become the poster boy for a senior figure losing his seat, when the cushion of said seat was devoid of stuffing.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.

    The problem for Labour is that they are pulling something of an inverse-SNP here. Large swings against the Lib Dems, but small swings against the Tories. They would win many more seats if it were the other way round.
    Labour small swings against the Tories are actually just diluted versions of their large swings against the LDs. That's where their extra votes are coming from.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    antifrank said:

    John Curtice's thoughts on the Ipsos MORI Scottish poll:

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2015/04/ipsos-mori-find-a-swing-to-the-snp-too/

    This excerpt on tactical voting is worth considering:

    "What we do discover is that while some Tory and Liberal Democrat supporters say that they would vote Labour if they thought the party had a chance of winning in their constituency, only around a third or so would do so. At the same though around one in ten Tory and Liberal Democrat supporters say that they would switch to the SNP if they thought the nationalists had a chance of winning locally. That suggests that in a Labour-SNP contest tactical switching would at most be worth no more than one-fifth or so of the Conservative and Liberal Democrat vote locally."
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Sean_F said:

    RepublicanTory said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.

    I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.

    From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.

    The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
    There's an answer to that question. 20% of Labour voters from 2010 now support UKIP, while 7% now support the Conservatives.

    Source? Does not mesh with the data I have.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Did we miss this?

    Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's pro-European, centrist Liberal Democrats have long resisted [an EU referendum], which they consider unnecessary. But in a Reuters interview, Clegg made clear the issue would not be a show-stopper.

    "I am not going to draw a red line against having a referendum," he said on Monday afternoon, talking in the back of the yellow "battle bus" he uses to criss-cross the country.

    http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2015/4/29/potential-ally-signals-could-back-camerons-eu-referendum-plan


    Good Spot. Clearly positioning for Coalition II the sequel.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679


    are people really that disengaged from the election a week before it happens?

    There was a guy on the radio this morning who thought that Nick Clegg was the Prime Minister.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    KentRising said:

    RaRaRasputin said:

    I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.

    Indeed. CCHQ should be quietly asking their campaign to stand down in SH.
    It seems clear that there should be a deal and Tories should stop campaigning in Hallam and Labour stop campaigning in South Thanet. The only block on this would be if there is a genuine relationship between Clegg and Cameron/Osborne.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Betting alert:

    Corals have gone Evens Farage.

    I'm on.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683


    Everyone in Thanet S who is sober and not senile knows Farage is standing!!

    And everyone who is not sober and senile is voting for him...?

    Sorry! Couldn't help myself.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    isam said:

    RepublicanTory said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.

    I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.

    From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.

    The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
    That might hold some sway if he wasn't 9-11% clear I polls that name him as the candidate

    Survation are UKIP friendly ok, but not that friendly
    Corals Evens Nige mate.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,879
    Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council.

    Just sayin'
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    isam said:

    RepublicanTory said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.

    I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.

    From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.

    The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
    That might hold some sway if he wasn't 9-11% clear I polls that name him as the candidate

    Survation are UKIP friendly ok, but not that friendly
    There won't be much tactical voting in Thanet. Let's remember this has always been a Tory/Lab battlefield where people are very much in one camp or the other. There won't be many who will switch against or behind Farage.

    Ashcroft overstates UKIP, Survation understates so let's say he's 4% ahead. :)

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I'm confused I thought the pb kippers were saying the raw data was good for nige?

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago
    UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,871
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Did we miss this?

    Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg's pro-European, centrist Liberal Democrats have long resisted [an EU referendum], which they consider unnecessary. But in a Reuters interview, Clegg made clear the issue would not be a show-stopper.

    "I am not going to draw a red line against having a referendum," he said on Monday afternoon, talking in the back of the yellow "battle bus" he uses to criss-cross the country.

    http://www.hl.co.uk/news/2015/4/29/potential-ally-signals-could-back-camerons-eu-referendum-plan

    Wasn't an EU referendum in their 2010 manifesto?

    Interesting to see the LDs softening for Coalition 2 - The Return. Dave had better get his team in Hallam delivering yellow leaflets for the next week. Maybe Clegg could reciprocate somewhere else, Morley and Outwood for example?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,912
    Dair said:

    KentRising said:

    RaRaRasputin said:

    I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.

    Indeed. CCHQ should be quietly asking their campaign to stand down in SH.
    It seems clear that there should be a deal and Tories should stop campaigning in Hallam and Labour stop campaigning in South Thanet. The only block on this would be if there is a genuine relationship between Clegg and Cameron/Osborne.
    Smacks of the 'coupon' ticket to me. Can't see it happening. Bit late anyway surely - people are voting.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Mr. Rose, and Mr. Recidivist, welcome to pb.com.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Tissue_Price said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Danny565 said:

    The worst part for Clegg is he's already put a severe tactical squeeze on the Tory vote there, there's surely not much further down they can go. The rise in the Labour vote in Hallam is just astonishing - even in 1997, they only got an increase of 20% in a couple of seats.

    In any case, the odds on Lab gaining Leeds NW and Birmingham Yardley should be tumbling on the basis of this poll and last week's Bristol West.

    The problem for Labour is that they are pulling something of an inverse-SNP here. Large swings against the Lib Dems, but small swings against the Tories. They would win many more seats if it were the other way round.
    Labour small swings against the Tories are actually just diluted versions of their large swings against the LDs. That's where their extra votes are coming from.
    In South Swindon the Liberal Democrats are down 12 points, but Labour are up just 2.

    Clegg and Cameron didn't manage to arrange a formal coupon election, but a lot of their voters are doing their best to make it happen.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Mr. Sandpit, I believe so, after Clegg derided a Lisbon vote and said In/Out made more sense. He's especially weaselly on EU votes.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,879
    edited April 2015
    The Sunil on Sunday ELBOW team heartily welcome BMG Research to the polling banquet!

    We've already added their poll to Wikipedia, and have incorporated their data into the part-ELBOW for the week so far.

    The Lab lead in the official tally drops to 0.0% (0.04% to 2 dp!!), and the non-YouGov portion of the tally now shows a Con lead of 1.1%! (cf. Lab lead of 0.9% in YouGov-only)

    @Tissue_Price. I like their data table!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,527
    Chris123 said:

    Sean_F said:

    RepublicanTory said:

    JackW said:

    Absolute bonkers from Lord A.

    No named candidates a week out from the election.

    Both Farage and Clegg will win comfortably.

    I think your are probably correct with Clegg but I disagree with your comment regarding Farage. There are plenty of people who DONT want him.

    I dont think you should undersestimate his ANTI personal vote.

    From my experiance on the door step and talking to other canvassers it is still very tight-but Scobie is going backwards-it is a straight blue purple fight.

    The question is- do more Labour supporters want to see the Tory beaten or Farage beaten?
    There's an answer to that question. 20% of Labour voters from 2010 now support UKIP, while 7% now support the Conservatives.

    Source? Does not mesh with the data I have.
    It's in the table for the Ashcroft poll.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    rottenborough said:

    Dair said:

    KentRising said:

    RaRaRasputin said:

    I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.

    Indeed. CCHQ should be quietly asking their campaign to stand down in SH.
    It seems clear that there should be a deal and Tories should stop campaigning in Hallam and Labour stop campaigning in South Thanet. The only block on this would be if there is a genuine relationship between Clegg and Cameron/Osborne.
    Smacks of the 'coupon' ticket to me. Can't see it happening. Bit late anyway surely - people are voting.
    What would the election look like now if the Tories and Lib Dems had officially got into bed and campaigned as the Coalition?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council.

    Just sayin'

    That saves you fiddling his figures I suppose Sunil ;)
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    rottenborough said:

    Dair said:

    KentRising said:

    RaRaRasputin said:

    I were David Cameron I'd be trying to siphon off a few thousand pounds to poor Cleggy's campaigning - no Clegg = no Conservative/LD coalition(?) = no more Cameron as PM.

    Indeed. CCHQ should be quietly asking their campaign to stand down in SH.
    It seems clear that there should be a deal and Tories should stop campaigning in Hallam and Labour stop campaigning in South Thanet. The only block on this would be if there is a genuine relationship between Clegg and Cameron/Osborne.
    Smacks of the 'coupon' ticket to me. Can't see it happening. Bit late anyway surely - people are voting.
    But if the Tories stop campaigning in Hallam it will help Clegg, while if Labour stop campaigning in Thanet it will help the Tories.

    What's in the deal for Labour?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,096
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    I'm confused I thought the pb kippers were saying the raw data was good for nige?

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago
    UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind

    It is, take a look at it.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Pulpstar said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    I'm confused I thought the pb kippers were saying the raw data was good for nige?

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago
    UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind

    It is, take a look at it.
    I think he's now corrected himself

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    I'm confused I thought the pb kippers were saying the raw data was good for nige?

    Rob Ford (Britain)‏@robfordmancs·16 mins16 minutes ago
    UKIP have often complained abt @LordAshcroft adjustments for past vote - but unadjusted figs in Thanet S even worse for them - 5 pts behind

    It is, take a look at it.
    Rob must mean Q1 vs Q2
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council.
    Neither are any of the newspaper or other media outlets that commission polls.

    He uses the same companies and it's their membership that counts. Not his.
    Just sayin'

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,879
    edited April 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ashcroft is not a member of the British Polling Council.

    Just sayin'

    That saves you fiddling his figures I suppose Sunil ;)
    No, no! That's YouGov :)

    But in recent weeks, I've understood why he was "understating" the LDs - he only adds 30% of 2010 LD don't know/ref, as opposed to 50% of Con or Lab. A couple of weeks ago, I went through all Ashcrofts in the ELBOW spreadsheet back to August using the correct LD weighting.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Anorak said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    Looks like Clegg might be heading for a Patten.

    And I bet PM Miliband would relish packing him off to run some far flung colonial outpost after the election too...

    Bad news for Cameron. He really must urge the Hallam Tories to cease and desist with immediate effect, or actively go out and encourage Tories to back Clegg. The slender hopes of Coalition Continued require him to be returned.

    Patten's majority was pretty damn slim (round about 1,000 from memory). It's weird he's become the poster boy for a senior figure losing his seat, when the cushion of said seat was devoid of stuffing.
    Chris P said it was the best thing that ever happened to him, losing his seat. The cheers from the Eurosceptic Toryboys as the results were given was the defining feature of the 92 election, and set the tone for what was going to happen to the Tories.
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