ICM fans should note that UKIP over 3.5 seats is the same price now they have Ukip on 13% as it was when they had them on 7%
Well ICM hasn't given UKIP that kind of number since December when they gave them 14%.
But I suspect the change in the UKIP, LD numbers in ICM is more to do with a fear that ICM might have egg on it's face if they stuck to their previous numbers.
What have ICM changed in their methodology to produce a higher UKIP poll score?
Or are you just making things up?
I'm just commenting on the usual incident that by a pure coincidence most pollsters usually converge in the last few days before the GE.
Is it tomorrow when the pollsters start filtering out those who aren't registered to vote?
Changes in vote share will be very interesting
Am I correct in recalling a lot of the unregistered will be students? If so, I would suspect Labour and Greens would be the big losers.
The NUS at Unis have had a very active Electoral registration campaign/push. Wouldnt be at all surprised to see the student registrations up this time..
The seats with the biggest drops in registered voters have tended to be student ones.
Ed will be the SNP's prisoner. They'll do everything they can to prevent a fresh election, and along with PC, Green and assorted Leftists they'll have the votes to stop one.
In terms of legislation, nothing will pass without their say so. Merely abstain, and Ed loses every division of the House.
They must be wetting themselves. They've won the lottery jackpot, due to FPTP.
Nonsense. The government, whether a minority or otherwise, can always simply resort to the device of proposing a motion of no confidence in itself.
Is it tomorrow when the pollsters start filtering out those who aren't registered to vote?
Changes in vote share will be very interesting
Am I correct in recalling a lot of the unregistered will be students? If so, I would suspect Labour and Greens would be the big losers.
The NUS at Unis have had a very active Electoral registration campaign/push. Wouldnt be at all surprised to see the student registrations up this time..
Those that didn't register this time are going to mostly be people who didn't vote last time. In fact the number who were convinced to register and vote who wouldn't have five years ago may well balance the number who want to vote this time but can't.
FPT. Once again with contrary polls it's clearly down to methodology as to which gets it right:
Propensity to vote - which supporters will turn-out? Regional variation - Nw & Ldn v Sw & Midlands? Age distribution of support - older Tories/Ukip v younger Lab/SNP? How well are the pollsters picking up those registered to vote or those who didn't vote last time. My inclination as well as rationality think ICM is probably closer. The very sameness of YG and Populus also lends doubt.
I think rather than looking at the published results, we should spend more time in the weightings - all of them. There must be a reason why ICM continuously produce different results than others.
Do you mean different to Ashcroft/CR/Opinium? Plenty of 3+ Tory leads you're just tuning them all out.
3% Tory lead means 4.4% swing to Labour. I will take that.
It is nearer 2.5% in E & W - of course you've always got Scotland....oh.
Ed Balls : absolutely no deals with the SNP formal or informal.
So, if the polls are correct then what?? A supremely weak labour minority government?
Or another election?
Labour don't need to do any deals with the SNP. The SNP have said they'll support them in confidence votes, come hell or high water.
Of course, actually governing on a day-to-day basis on that would be a total nightmare, but that's a different point.
All the wheeling dealing would be behind the scenes though, it would be an utter shambles.
Ed will be the SNP's prisoner. Simples.
It's not as simple as that though, is it? Like any other minority administration leader, Ed will be reliant on finding common ground with other parties on an issue-by-issue basis. Sometimes that will be the SNP, other times (arguably more times) it could be the Tories. And the principle will be the same if we have Conservative minority government too (realistically that would be Conservative+rLD minority).
In the same way that nobody really knew how coalition would pan out - in particular, the incredible willingness of the LDs to hitch themselves to "the government" on issues that their supporters didn't agree with, and that they didn't need to support in order to maintain coalition - nobody really knows what will happen here. The only safe assumption is that politicians of all colours would rather join in the party and have some power than maintain a principled distance and risk another election.
What you appear to be saying is the only alternative would be for a Labour PM to rely on Tory MPs to pass his legislation.
ICM fans should note that UKIP over 3.5 seats is the same price now they have Ukip on 13% as it was when they had them on 7%
Well ICM hasn't given UKIP that kind of number since December when they gave them 14%.
But I suspect the change in the UKIP, LD numbers in ICM is more to do with a fear that ICM might have egg on it's face if they stuck to their previous numbers.
Do you really think pollsters do that? I can't imagine anyone really interested in statistics would bend them to suit, they're interested in the truth
The fact that Ryan Coetzee was on twitter this morning asking about the ICM poll before it came out shows how paranoid the LDs are about what is going on at the moment. Their private "comfort polling" is probably showing massive differences to what is really going on. On LD voice over the weekend LD activists were starting to take swipes at Ashcroft..
ICM fans should note that UKIP over 3.5 seats is the same price now they have Ukip on 13% as it was when they had them on 7%
Well ICM hasn't given UKIP that kind of number since December when they gave them 14%.
But I suspect the change in the UKIP, LD numbers in ICM is more to do with a fear that ICM might have egg on it's face if they stuck to their previous numbers.
Do you really think pollsters do that? I can't imagine anyone really interested in statistics would bend them to suit, they're interested in the truth
You have to wonder, the perils of groupthink are well known - convergence must seem tempting, pollsters quite often fiddle with their methodologies, and I've seen plenty of "manual adjustments" to the data before...
This is my only constituency bet - I only play the long odds bets. I think if he wasn't a Cabinet minister, he would be safe. However, as he was a member of the Cabinet which stood idly by for months before helping the oil industry, undoubtedly cost jobs and investment, will have lost him a good few %.
What's particularly sad about all of this, is that the Coalition delayed helping the oil industry under the naïve impression that it would some how damage the SNP. Good riddance to the lot of them in my book - I look forward to the pathetic scrabbling around for H of L seats, I can already see the DT/DM rabid headlines about the new Scottish invasion of the H of L.
Ad that additional taxation a year or two before, in which Mr Alexander (LD, NB) was implicit. Can't have helped Mr A in his constituency either.
Ed Balls : absolutely no deals with the SNP formal or informal.
So, if the polls are correct then what?? A supremely weak labour minority government?
Or another election?
Labour don't need to do any deals with the SNP. The SNP have said they'll support them in confidence votes, come hell or high water.
Of course, actually governing on a day-to-day basis on that would be a total nightmare, but that's a different point.
All the wheeling dealing would be behind the scenes though, it would be an utter shambles.
Ed will be the SNP's prisoner. Simples.
It's not as simple as that though, is it? Like any other minority administration leader, Ed will be reliant on finding common ground with other parties on an issue-by-issue basis. Sometimes that will be the SNP, other times (arguably more times) it could be the Tories. And the principle will be the same if we have Conservative minority government too (realistically that would be Conservative+rLD minority).
In the same way that nobody really knew how coalition would pan out - in particular, the incredible willingness of the LDs to hitch themselves to "the government" on issues that their supporters didn't agree with, and that they didn't need to support in order to maintain coalition - nobody really knows what will happen here. The only safe assumption is that politicians of all colours would rather join in the party and have some power than maintain a principled distance and risk another election.
What you appear to be saying is the only alternative would be for a Labour PM to rely on Tory MPs to pass his legislation.
FPT. Once again with contrary polls it's clearly down to methodology as to which gets it right:
Propensity to vote - which supporters will turn-out? Regional variation - Nw & Ldn v Sw & Midlands? Age distribution of support - older Tories/Ukip v younger Lab/SNP? How well are the pollsters picking up those registered to vote or those who didn't vote last time. My inclination as well as rationality think ICM is probably closer. The very sameness of YG and Populus also lends doubt.
I think rather than looking at the published results, we should spend more time in the weightings - all of them. There must be a reason why ICM continuously produce different results than others.
Do you mean different to Ashcroft/CR/Opinium? Plenty of 3+ Tory leads you're just tuning them all out.
3% Tory lead means 4.4% swing to Labour. I will take that.
It is nearer 2.5% in E & W - of course you've always got Scotland....oh.
Can someone explain to me if the GB wide Tory lead is 3%, and Labour vote in Scotland has dropped, how come in E&W, the Tories have a 7% lead ?
What can we learn about UKIP's likely performance relative to the polls from other European countries?
Is UKIP on 18% (Survation) or 10% (ComRes)? Are phone pollsters suffering from shy Kippers, or are on-line pollsters boosted by highly engaged activists?
I thought I'd go and look at elections in Europe where insurgent parties have made great progress, and see if there's anything to learn. Now: don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that UKIP is like the Front National, or Podemos, or the Finns, or the PVV. All I'm doing is looking in these countries and seeing whether phone or internet pollsters are more accurate at predicting x's in boxes.
So, first up, Finland's General Election.
A remarkably un-polled election! According to Wikipedia, only three pollsters took part - and they all appear to be phone pollsters:
Pollster Type Finns Taloustukimus Phone 16.7 TNS Gallup Phone 16.2 Tietoykkonen Phone 16.6
Actual Result 17.7
Result: phone pollsters underestimated the Finns' share by a little more than 1%.
Next: France and polling for the recent departmental elections.
We have the opposite issue in France, in that all the pollsters used Internet panels.
Pollster Type FN Opinion Way Internet 29 Harris Internet 29 Ipsos Internet 29 Odoxa Internet 29 Ifop Internet 30
Actual Result 25.2
Result: internet pollsters over-estimated the FN by 4 to 5%.
Not so sure the comparison with the Finns or FN is one that you can make Robert. In both those cases the parties have stood in previous elections as established parties and getting results in line with those they are getting this time. In the case of UKIP it is the rapid rise in their fortunes since the last election that is causing the pollsters so much of a headache when trying to factor them into the polls.
The comparison with Podemos is interesting though.
I have no problem at all with the Tory message the SNP/Lab.
In fact they need to flag these sorts of seat numbers which so far they don't seem to - joe public are odd and not political anoraks, they probably have no grasp of the earthquake in scottish politics which could see a party go from a handful of seats to near 50.
The implications for how money is redistributed around the regions is therefore under great threat to what has gone before - and that's often seen to be resented in England already.
the tories should mention the potential seats that could move in to the nationalist hands to re-inforce how much larger a force the snp will be.
It's also no surprise how low a profile Eck is playing in the campaign either as if he was, I think the Tory message would resonate still further with swing voters in E&W.
*now ducks for cover*
I have some potentially bad news for you.
I did hear on the grapevine, the Tory candidate for Buckingham next time around might be one Sol Campbell.
I'm turning kipper.
I've started to warm to Mark Reckless, I mean look at his profile pic on twitter, how can anyone have anything but love and admiration for him.
If I lived in Rochester I might contemplate voting for him.
Have I read correctly? You of all contemplating voting for Reckless? I remember the torrents of expletives pouring online here against Reckless from a certain TSE.
I have no problem at all with the Tory message the SNP/Lab.
In fact they need to flag these sorts of seat numbers which so far they don't seem to - joe public are odd and not political anoraks, they probably have no grasp of the earthquake in scottish politics which could see a party go from a handful of seats to near 50.
The implications for how money is redistributed around the regions is therefore under great threat to what has gone before - and that's often seen to be resented in England already.
the tories should mention the potential seats that could move in to the nationalist hands to re-inforce how much larger a force the snp will be.
It's also no surprise how low a profile Eck is playing in the campaign either as if he was, I think the Tory message would resonate still further with swing voters in E&W.
*now ducks for cover*
I have some potentially bad news for you.
I did hear on the grapevine, the Tory candidate for Buckingham next time around might be one Sol Campbell.
FPT. Once again with contrary polls it's clearly down to methodology as to which gets it right:
Propensity to vote - which supporters will turn-out? Regional variation - Nw & Ldn v Sw & Midlands? Age distribution of support - older Tories/Ukip v younger Lab/SNP? How well are the pollsters picking up those registered to vote or those who didn't vote last time. My inclination as well as rationality think ICM is probably closer. The very sameness of YG and Populus also lends doubt.
I think rather than looking at the published results, we should spend more time in the weightings - all of them. There must be a reason why ICM continuously produce different results than others.
Do you mean different to Ashcroft/CR/Opinium? Plenty of 3+ Tory leads you're just tuning them all out.
3% Tory lead means 4.4% swing to Labour. I will take that.
It is nearer 2.5% in E & W - of course you've always got Scotland....oh.
Can someone explain to me if the GB wide Tory lead is 3%, and Labour vote in Scotland has dropped, how come in E&W, the Tories have a 7% lead ?
The Tory lead in E&W has dropped since 2010, when it was 11(?) percent.
Its the Con plus Ukip figure that astounds me, 48%
Yes. Imagine if UKIP didn't exist. Tories would be roaring home to a stonking majority.
And there's the rub.
How many of those people who're telling the pollsters they'll vote UKIP will stand in the box on the 7th, hover over the UKIP box, and then remember Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister tomorrow if they tick there? How many, like me, will hold my nose and vote for Dave?
A fair few I would guess.
That's why I'm not taking too much notice of the polls Ms Plato. On a personal level, I'm telling them one thing but have already decided to do something else.
I suspect that course of action will be exaggerated the nearer we get.
I find the hubris of some of the Labour guys on here quite staggering, all things considered.
Hubris? Most of us seem to be veering between Tory maj or Tory significantly largest party...
Should we be even *less* confident?
Indeed. I am struggling to think of any hubristic Labour posters on here. Maybe Nick Palmer's Broxtowe confidence falls into that description, but overall I think most of us expect the Tories to win most seats and votes next week. What amazes me is that they are not yet home and dry.
Is it tomorrow when the pollsters start filtering out those who aren't registered to vote?
Changes in vote share will be very interesting
Am I correct in recalling a lot of the unregistered will be students? If so, I would suspect Labour and Greens would be the big losers.
The NUS at Unis have had a very active Electoral registration campaign/push. Wouldnt be at all surprised to see the student registrations up this time..
The seats with the biggest drops in registered voters have tended to be student ones.
We will know on Wednesday..its guesswork up till then.
I have no problem at all with the Tory message the SNP/Lab.
In fact they need to flag these sorts of seat numbers which so far they don't seem to - joe public are odd and not political anoraks, they probably have no grasp of the earthquake in scottish politics which could see a party go from a handful of seats to near 50.
The implications for how money is redistributed around the regions is therefore under great threat to what has gone before - and that's often seen to be resented in England already.
the tories should mention the potential seats that could move in to the nationalist hands to re-inforce how much larger a force the snp will be.
It's also no surprise how low a profile Eck is playing in the campaign either as if he was, I think the Tory message would resonate still further with swing voters in E&W.
*now ducks for cover*
I have some potentially bad news for you.
I did hear on the grapevine, the Tory candidate for Buckingham next time around might be one Sol Campbell.
I'm turning kipper.
I've started to warm to Mark Reckless, I mean look at his profile pic on twitter, how can anyone have anything but love and admiration for him.
If I lived in Rochester I might contemplate voting for him.
"All supports my long-expressed gut feel that most people either want or would acquiesce in a Cameron second term"
I wouldn't like a second term but if it had to be I'd prefer it without Lib Dem involvement. They give opportunism a bad name
Maybe this will prompt some of the orange bookers to join the Cons - a good move in my view for both parties. The LD attempt to straddle left and right has finally hit the rocks this time.
I wonder whether Ed Miliband will do just well enough to provide his party with the worst possible election result of all.
Much better, and he would be able to safely ignore the SNP.
Much worse and his party could be rid of him and point to Cameron’s second term as the consequence of voting SNP (whether this is true or not).
I can’t see any way in which a Lab/SNP deal ends up being good in the long-term for Labour. Either it works well, in which case Labour’s Scottish seats are gone for good, or it works badly in which case Labour gets the blame.
Ed will be the SNP's prisoner. They'll do everything they can to prevent a fresh election, and along with PC, Green and assorted Leftists they'll have the votes to stop one.
In terms of legislation, nothing will pass without their say so. Merely abstain, and Ed loses every division of the House.
They must be wetting themselves. They've won the lottery jackpot, due to FPTP.
Nonsense. The government, whether a minority or otherwise, can always simply resort to the device of proposing a motion of no confidence in itself.
In other words, press the self-destruct button. Well yes, they could do that, which would not necessarily lead to another election.
FPT. Once again with contrary polls it's clearly down to methodology as to which gets it right:
Propensity to vote - which supporters will turn-out? Regional variation - Nw & Ldn v Sw & Midlands? Age distribution of support - older Tories/Ukip v younger Lab/SNP? How well are the pollsters picking up those registered to vote or those who didn't vote last time. My inclination as well as rationality think ICM is probably closer. The very sameness of YG and Populus also lends doubt.
I think rather than looking at the published results, we should spend more time in the weightings - all of them. There must be a reason why ICM continuously produce different results than others.
Do you mean different to Ashcroft/CR/Opinium? Plenty of 3+ Tory leads you're just tuning them all out.
3% Tory lead means 4.4% swing to Labour. I will take that.
Eh?
29:36 last time, so that's a 2% swing...
Apols if you are referring to something else altogether
I have no problem at all with the Tory message the SNP/Lab.
In fact they need to flag these sorts of seat numbers which so far they don't seem to - joe public are odd and not political anoraks, they probably have no grasp of the earthquake in scottish politics which could see a party go from a handful of seats to near 50.
The implications for how money is redistributed around the regions is therefore under great threat to what has gone before - and that's often seen to be resented in England already.
the tories should mention the potential seats that could move in to the nationalist hands to re-inforce how much larger a force the snp will be.
It's also no surprise how low a profile Eck is playing in the campaign either as if he was, I think the Tory message would resonate still further with swing voters in E&W.
*now ducks for cover*
I have some potentially bad news for you.
I did hear on the grapevine, the Tory candidate for Buckingham next time around might be one Sol Campbell.
I'm turning kipper.
I've started to warm to Mark Reckless, I mean look at his profile pic on twitter, how can anyone have anything but love and admiration for him.
If I lived in Rochester I might contemplate voting for him.
Have I read correctly? You of all contemplating voting for Reckless? I remember the torrents of expletives pouring online here against Reckless from a certain TSE.
I have no problem at all with the Tory message the SNP/Lab.
In fact they need to flag these sorts of seat numbers which so far they don't seem to - joe public are odd and not political anoraks, they probably have no grasp of the earthquake in scottish politics which could see a party go from a handful of seats to near 50.
The implications for how money is redistributed around the regions is therefore under great threat to what has gone before - and that's often seen to be resented in England already.
the tories should mention the potential seats that could move in to the nationalist hands to re-inforce how much larger a force the snp will be.
It's also no surprise how low a profile Eck is playing in the campaign either as if he was, I think the Tory message would resonate still further with swing voters in E&W.
*now ducks for cover*
I have some potentially bad news for you.
I did hear on the grapevine, the Tory candidate for Buckingham next time around might be one Sol Campbell.
I'm turning kipper.
I've started to warm to Mark Reckless, I mean look at his profile pic on twitter, how can anyone have anything but love and admiration for him.
If I lived in Rochester I might contemplate voting for him.
Have I read correctly? You of all contemplating voting for Reckless? I remember the torrents of expletives pouring online here against Reckless from a certain TSE.
The probability of me voting for Mark Reckless, have increased from zero to 0.0000001%
The torrents of expletives? You mean when I wrote a thread header that said of Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."
I was merely quoting a Tory MP.
I took no pleasure in writing that thread header. None whatsoever.
Are the Lib Dem even running this GE? You see very very little about any annoucements in the media.
Well they are busy with rearguard action, however if the Tories are putting everything they have in Yeovil then either the LD have truly been destroyed or someone in Tory HQ is really confident that the LD will hold zero seats.
My thinking is that we end up with a Lab-Con deal after the election as Labour realise there is no good outcome from them having anything to do with the SNP, and so we end up with no other possible government.
I imagine that if this happens Cameron will stay as PM if the Cons have more PMs than Lab, but both of them have 'lost' and resign from their party leaderships. Both choose new leaders and we do it all again in six months' time!
Almost as many 2010 Liberal Democrats voting Green as Labour in this poll, but both are behind the key segment in this election - the Liberal Conservatives changing their vote from Lib Dem to Tory to keep David Cameron in Number Ten.
Ed will be the SNP's prisoner. They'll do everything they can to prevent a fresh election, and along with PC, Green and assorted Leftists they'll have the votes to stop one.
In terms of legislation, nothing will pass without their say so. Merely abstain, and Ed loses every division of the House.
They must be wetting themselves. They've won the lottery jackpot, due to FPTP.
Nonsense. The government, whether a minority or otherwise, can always simply resort to the device of proposing a motion of no confidence in itself.
In other words, press the self-destruct button. Well yes, they could do that, which would not necessarily lead to another election.
Say they want to take the matter back to the country.
Dare the opposition to oppose you.
A lot more likely than I think most people realise.
Are the Lib Dem even running this GE? You see very very little about any annoucements in the media.
Well they are busy with rearguard action, however if the Tories are putting everything they have in Yeovil then either the LD have truly been destroyed or someone in Tory HQ is really confident that the LD will hold zero seats.
There are some decent odds on LD/Tory marginals out there if you think that people are shifting..
What you appear to be saying is the only alternative would be for a Labour PM to rely on Tory MPs to pass his legislation.
Good Luck in finding those MPs...
No seriously. Not rogue backbenchers, the Tory party. One step away from grand coalition territory. The conversation goes something like this "I need to put this eminently reasonable bill before the house to ensure that we continue to collect income tax and pensioners don't freeze to death, but in order to vote for it, the SNP are holding the people of Britain to ransom and insisting on fully devolved free prescriptions funding by a local income tax and selling deep-fried Trident to the Russians so I call on the Tories to support a bill to implement stuff they agree with and prevent the evil Scots doing...." [continues for 94 mins]
What happens then? SNP join Tories to vote no confidence, new election, almost certain loss of SNP seats, not least because they currently have all of them.... which they won't do. Or Tories set out their conditions for backing a bill, or SNP moderate their demands. Policy eBay basically, but let's not pretend the Nats are the only bidders in town.
"Weak Ed Miliband will be at the mercy of the evil Tories" - maybe Lynton should try that one next?
My thinking is that we end up with a Lab-Con deal after the election as Labour realise there is no good outcome from them having anything to do with the SNP, and so we end up with no other possible government.
I imagine that if this happens Cameron will stay as PM if the Cons have more PMs than Lab, but both of them have 'lost' and resign from their party leaderships. Both choose new leaders and we do it all again in six months' time!
In betting terms that would be by far the best outcome...
Crap for the country, great for pong's bank account!
I have no problem at all with the Tory message the SNP/Lab.
In fact they need to flag these sorts of seat numbers which so far they don't seem to - joe public are odd and not political anoraks, they probably have no grasp of the earthquake in scottish politics which could see a party go from a handful of seats to near 50.
The implications for how money is redistributed around the regions is therefore under great threat to what has gone before - and that's often seen to be resented in England already.
the tories should mention the potential seats that could move in to the nationalist hands to re-inforce how much larger a force the snp will be.
It's also no surprise how low a profile Eck is playing in the campaign either as if he was, I think the Tory message would resonate still further with swing voters in E&W.
*now ducks for cover*
I have some potentially bad news for you.
I did hear on the grapevine, the Tory candidate for Buckingham next time around might be one Sol Campbell.
I'm turning kipper.
I've started to warm to Mark Reckless, I mean look at his profile pic on twitter, how can anyone have anything but love and admiration for him.
If I lived in Rochester I might contemplate voting for him.
Have I read correctly? You of all contemplating voting for Reckless? I remember the torrents of expletives pouring online here against Reckless from a certain TSE.
The probability of me voting for Mark Reckless, have increased from zero to 0.0000001%
The torrents of expletives? You mean when I wrote a thread header that said of Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."
I was merely quoting a Tory MP.
I took no pleasure in writing that thread header. None whatsoever.
Looks like someone flicked TSE into sarcasm mode this afternoon!
I have no problem at all with the Tory message the SNP/Lab.
In fact they need to flag these sorts of seat numbers which so far they don't seem to - joe public are odd and not political anoraks, they probably have no grasp of the earthquake in scottish politics which could see a party go from a handful of seats to near 50.
The implications for how money is redistributed around the regions is therefore under great threat to what has gone before - and that's often seen to be resented in England already.
the tories should mention the potential seats that could move in to the nationalist hands to re-inforce how much larger a force the snp will be.
It's also no surprise how low a profile Eck is playing in the campaign either as if he was, I think the Tory message would resonate still further with swing voters in E&W.
*now ducks for cover*
I have some potentially bad news for you.
I did hear on the grapevine, the Tory candidate for Buckingham next time around might be one Sol Campbell.
I'm turning kipper.
I've started to warm to Mark Reckless, I mean look at his profile pic on twitter, how can anyone have anything but love and admiration for him.
If I lived in Rochester I might contemplate voting for him.
I genuinely believe the SNP could take all the seats in Scotland; that reality would put the fear of God into both Labour and the Conservatives. Attempting to shut the nationalists out of the process would probably result in demands for independence.
Is there any read-across from Canada that we can see? Have the Bloc Quebecois ever got close to a clean sweep in the past?
I can't imagine they would - the political scene is more fragmented with a variety of Quebec-based parties at provincial level (for example, the Quebec Liberal Party - federalists, not seperatists, and entirely independent of the Canadian Liberals - hold a solid majority in the provincial government) so there are many ways for Quebecois to express their nationhood at the ballot box.
Plus there are entrenched and enfranchised groups of yellow-dog opposition to BQ, not least the significant Anglo minority and 'les autres' e.g. Italian-Canadians, Portuguese-Canadians.
IF, and I suspect it’s a big if, we get the following: Clegg loses, there’s a Grand Coalition and the FTPA is repealed (or the system in it used to allow another GE in a early next year) I suspect the LD’s will recover a lot of losses South of the border and make some gains nas well. Suspect it won’t make much difference to anyone N or the border.
Felix "Maybe this will prompt some of the orange bookers to join the Cons"
I hope so. This'll be the first election that I can remember where I wouldn't vote Lib Dem to keep out a Tory. If many Labour voters feel the same it'll make quite a difference
If the result of the election is Tories most seats (and an English majority), Lab second but EICIPM because of SNP ... who thinks that government would last a full five years.
Say what you want of the coalition, the Tories and LD's have worked together competently for a full five years. I simply can't see that happening next term if EICIPM - regardless of the fixed term act.
I have no problem at all with the Tory message the SNP/Lab.
In fact they need to flag these sorts of seat numbers which so far they don't seem to - joe public are odd and not political anoraks, they probably have no grasp of the earthquake in scottish politics which could see a party go from a handful of seats to near 50.
The implications for how money is redistributed around the regions is therefore under great threat to what has gone before - and that's often seen to be resented in England already.
the tories should mention the potential seats that could move in to the nationalist hands to re-inforce how much larger a force the snp will be.
It's also no surprise how low a profile Eck is playing in the campaign either as if he was, I think the Tory message would resonate still further with swing voters in E&W.
*now ducks for cover*
I have some potentially bad news for you.
I did hear on the grapevine, the Tory candidate for Buckingham next time around might be one Sol Campbell.
I'm turning kipper.
I've started to warm to Mark Reckless, I mean look at his profile pic on twitter, how can anyone have anything but love and admiration for him.
If I lived in Rochester I might contemplate voting for him.
Reports that Greece has reshuffled its bailout negotiating team, or in effect withdrawing finance minister Yanis Varoufakis from front line discussions, has caused Athens' borrowing costs to slide.
Investors hope that the substitution of the combative Mr Varoufakis - replaced, it is understood, in talks with creditors by deputy foreign minister Euclid Tsakalotos - will make for a more collegiate negotiating process. In turn, this should render an agreement more likely.
Felix "Maybe this will prompt some of the orange bookers to join the Cons"
I hope so. This'll be the first election that I can remember where I wouldn't vote Lib Dem to keep out a Tory. If many Labour voters feel the same is should be quite different from previous elections
I have already voted LABOUR. May even have elected a Tory by default. But it is worth it. The bloody betrayal....
Even now Ed Davey has the gall to send me , at least, 5 letters saying only he can stop the Conservative.
Are the Lib Dem even running this GE? You see very very little about any annoucements in the media.
Ground war, not air war for the LDs. If you live in an LD marginal (and they're all marginal, right?) you see plenty. Though with candidate front-and-centre and minimal LD branding.
I see that pollsters are starting once again to ditch their differences in favour of converging their numbers ahead of the GE.
Right now we have a convergence on the LD & UKIP scores around the 8 and 14% number, but pollsters have not yet accepted a consensus on the Labour-Tory position, yet.
By next Wednesday I think pollsters will have a meeting or something of minds or phone calls to each other, to produce similar numbers as usual.
A less cynical mind would suggest that the don't knows will have broken one way of the other by then.
20% of the people ICM polled said they don't know, the initial numbers before weightings are applied have the Tories on 22% and Labour on 21%. Almost tempting to suggest a poll means nothing when there's that amount of uncertainty still.
Felix "Maybe this will prompt some of the orange bookers to join the Cons"
I hope so. This'll be the first election that I can remember where I wouldn't vote Lib Dem to keep out a Tory. If many Labour voters feel the same is should be quite different from previous elections
I have already voted LABOUR. May even have elected a Tory by default. But it is worth it. The bloody betrayal....
Even now Ed Davey has the gall to send me , at least, 5 letters saying only he can stop the Conservative.
Really, you s.o.b - You are the Tory !
How is it a betrayal for a centre party to work with the centre-right party that won the most seats at the election?
Especially when before the election the centre party said they'd expect to work with whoever had most seats.
My thinking is that we end up with a Lab-Con deal after the election as Labour realise there is no good outcome from them having anything to do with the SNP, and so we end up with no other possible government.
I imagine that if this happens Cameron will stay as PM if the Cons have more PMs than Lab, but both of them have 'lost' and resign from their party leaderships. Both choose new leaders and we do it all again in six months' time!
In betting terms that would be by far the best outcome...
Crap for the country, great for pong's bank account!
Good for Sandpit's bank account too!
I first thought of this outcome at the start of the year as the polls remained stagnant, but as the election gets closer what was a very long shot has drifted in to be a real possibility.
I just can't see the markets putting up with a 'Belgium' scenario - so have everyone agree to change the leaders, bring in some fresh policies on both sides and run the election again in the autumn. Meanwhile lame ducks Cameron and Miliband get to be in charge of dealing with the shhhh being thrown on all sides for a few months!
Felix "Maybe this will prompt some of the orange bookers to join the Cons"
I hope so. This'll be the first election that I can remember where I wouldn't vote Lib Dem to keep out a Tory. If many Labour voters feel the same is should be quite different from previous elections
I have already voted LABOUR. May even have elected a Tory by default. But it is worth it. The bloody betrayal....
Even now Ed Davey has the gall to send me , at least, 5 letters saying only he can stop the Conservative.
Really, you s.o.b - You are the Tory !
How is it a betrayal for a centre party to work with the centre-right party that won the most seats at the election?
Especially when before the election the centre party said they'd expect to work with whoever had most seats.
What do you think was betrayed?
THe election literature was clear. Only we can stop the Tories. The b@stards !!!
I am one Labour voter that has been expecting the Tories to pull away into a commanding lead for the last 12 months or more. If the polls continue to stay broadly as they are for much longer I might actually have to have a rethink.
Are the Lib Dem even running this GE? You see very very little about any annoucements in the media.
Ground war, not air war for the LDs. If you live in an LD marginal (and they're all marginal, right?) you see plenty. Though with candidate front-and-centre and minimal LD branding.
If the LD brand is so bad that their candidates are having to downplay being the LD candidate, they've got a problem that leaflets won't fix.
If the result of the election is Tories most seats (and an English majority), Lab second but EICIPM because of SNP ... who thinks that government would last a full five years.
Say what you want of the coalition, the Tories and LD's have worked together competently for a full five years. I simply can't see that happening next term if EICIPM - regardless of the fixed term act.
Thing is, I don't want a government to work together "competently" to enact policies that none of its constituent parties' voters thought they were voting for. I'm not choosing the most competent manager, secure in the knowledge that as long as the manager I vote for is represented at the table, they will make responsible choices which differ entirely from the tone of their campaign and are completely at odds with my odd choices.
I don't understand why anyone would think that's a good thing. I can't imagine that many of those who praise the current coalition (as a matter of process rather than policy) would be equally satisfied if Clegg had just spent 5 years propping up Brown on a massive spending binge, yet in substance that would be the same: LDs can say they've used their judgement to support a stable government and implement the policies they believe are best for the country.
I maintain that part of the fallout of this most peculiar election will be a popular debate on democratic representation. That the SNP could return 50-odd MPs from a popular vote of only 5% - vs the Greens who'll get one seat (if they're lucky) on a similar vote share, UKIP, who'll get 3-5 on more than twice as many votes will seem, to say the least, unbalanced.
Of course, this is a longstanding issue - but the SNP bring it into very sharp and easily understandable focus.
All the SNP have to do is to stand in every rUK constituency in the next election and thereafter.
If it has been such an issue, why has it not been raised before? DUP, UUP, SF, and so on have been around for decades.
The NI parties haven't returned even double-figures in MPs, let alone the 40-50 that polling suggests for SNP. In a hung parliament, even if they aren't part of a governing deal, that's an enormously powerful bloc, wielding power in enormous disproportion to their electoral base (in terms of actual numbers of voters).
And if they stood in every UK constituency they'd still be overrepresented in parliament, proportionate to their national share, against UKIP, the Greens and probably the LDs.
What you appear to be saying is the only alternative would be for a Labour PM to rely on Tory MPs to pass his legislation.
Good Luck in finding those MPs...
No seriously. Not rogue backbenchers, the Tory party. One step away from grand coalition territory. The conversation goes something like this "I need to put this eminently reasonable bill before the house to ensure that we continue to collect income tax and pensioners don't freeze to death, but in order to vote for it, the SNP are holding the people of Britain to ransom and insisting on fully devolved free prescriptions funding by a local income tax and selling deep-fried Trident to the Russians so I call on the Tories to support a bill to implement stuff they agree with and prevent the evil Scots doing...." [continues for 94 mins]
What happens then? SNP join Tories to vote no confidence, new election, almost certain loss of SNP seats, not least because they currently have all of them.... which they won't do. Or Tories set out their conditions for backing a bill, or SNP moderate their demands. Policy eBay basically, but let's not pretend the Nats are the only bidders in town.
"Weak Ed Miliband will be at the mercy of the evil Tories" - maybe Lynton should try that one next?
Bottom line, either Ed does the SNP's bidding or goes cap-in-hand to the Tories.
Either way, the Tories will be happy for the farce to run for as long as possible.
Felix "Maybe this will prompt some of the orange bookers to join the Cons"
I hope so. This'll be the first election that I can remember where I wouldn't vote Lib Dem to keep out a Tory. If many Labour voters feel the same is should be quite different from previous elections
I have already voted LABOUR. May even have elected a Tory by default. But it is worth it. The bloody betrayal....
Even now Ed Davey has the gall to send me , at least, 5 letters saying only he can stop the Conservative.
Really, you s.o.b - You are the Tory !
How is it a betrayal for a centre party to work with the centre-right party that won the most seats at the election?
Especially when before the election the centre party said they'd expect to work with whoever had most seats.
What do you think was betrayed?
Tony Blair has not said much of sense for a long time.
But, he did with regard to the LibDems.
"The problem they have is very simple: they fought the 2010 election on a platform quite significantly to the left of the Labour party and ended up in a Conservative government with a platform that is significantly to the right of Labour.”
If the result of the election is Tories most seats (and an English majority), Lab second but EICIPM because of SNP ... who thinks that government would last a full five years.
Say what you want of the coalition, the Tories and LD's have worked together competently for a full five years. I simply can't see that happening next term if EICIPM - regardless of the fixed term act.
Was it a surprise ? The Orange Bookers are the Tory b!tch.
Are the Lib Dem even running this GE? You see very very little about any annoucements in the media.
Ground war, not air war for the LDs. If you live in an LD marginal (and they're all marginal, right?) you see plenty. Though with candidate front-and-centre and minimal LD branding.
If the LD brand is so bad that their candidates are having to downplay being the LD candidate, they've got a problem that leaflets won't fix.
In Bradford East, the LibDem candidate is using his suspension from the party as a positive.
IF, and I suspect it’s a big if, we get the following: Clegg loses, there’s a Grand Coalition and the FTPA is repealed (or the system in it used to allow another GE in a early next year) I suspect the LD’s will recover a lot of losses South of the border and make some gains nas well. Suspect it won’t make much difference to anyone N or the border.
Apparently, the FPTA can't simply be repealed, since it's impossible to revive prerogative powers, once they've gone.
Can someone link me to what Bennett has actually said, I feel (hope) the Daily Mail may be distorting the position somewhat.
Whatever it was, I doubt it's as daft as the 'White Genocide' hashtag. Though it was only a matter of time before the Greens got a bit of the UKIP treatment with the press pulling out the bonkers policies and candidates.
Comments
"All supports my long-expressed gut feel that most people either want or would acquiesce in a Cameron second term"
I wouldn't like a second term but if it had to be I'd prefer it without Lib Dem involvement. They give opportunism a bad name
I do think the ICM figures for Wales are a bit suspect - do we really think the Tories are on only 17% vs Labour's rather high sounding 53%?
Good Luck in finding those MPs...
On LD voice over the weekend LD activists were starting to take swipes at Ashcroft..
The comparison with Podemos is interesting though.
You of all contemplating voting for Reckless?
I remember the torrents of expletives pouring online here against Reckless from a certain TSE.
Someone is laying Cons at 1.64 for £700
Ukip 13/8 general
Obscene
Much better, and he would be able to safely ignore the SNP.
Much worse and his party could be rid of him and point to Cameron’s second term as the consequence of voting SNP (whether this is true or not).
I can’t see any way in which a Lab/SNP deal ends up being good in the long-term for Labour. Either it works well, in which case Labour’s Scottish seats are gone for good, or it works badly in which case Labour gets the blame.
29:36 last time, so that's a 2% swing...
Apols if you are referring to something else altogether
The torrents of expletives? You mean when I wrote a thread header that said of Mark Reckless defecting: "I can't say the word c**t but he's a f**king c**t who deserves a hot poker up his arse."
I was merely quoting a Tory MP.
I took no pleasure in writing that thread header. None whatsoever.
So, SNP 5.4%, Lab 2.2%, Con 1.3% - TNS
That means in the rest of GB
Con 33.7%, Lab 29.8%. Sorry ! I forgot to multiply by 10/9
So, in E&W only : Con 37.4% Lab 33.1%
I make it 4.3% Tory lead in E&W. 11.7% in 2010.
So, 3.7% swing from C to Lab in E&W - even on these figures.
Well they are busy with rearguard action, however if the Tories are putting everything they have in Yeovil then either the LD have truly been destroyed or someone in Tory HQ is really confident that the LD will hold zero seats.
My thinking is that we end up with a Lab-Con deal after the election as Labour realise there is no good outcome from them having anything to do with the SNP, and so we end up with no other possible government.
I imagine that if this happens Cameron will stay as PM if the Cons have more PMs than Lab, but both of them have 'lost' and resign from their party leaderships. Both choose new leaders and we do it all again in six months' time!
Dare the opposition to oppose you.
A lot more likely than I think most people realise.
What happens then? SNP join Tories to vote no confidence, new election, almost certain loss of SNP seats, not least because they currently have all of them.... which they won't do. Or Tories set out their conditions for backing a bill, or SNP moderate their demands. Policy eBay basically, but let's not pretend the Nats are the only bidders in town.
"Weak Ed Miliband will be at the mercy of the evil Tories" - maybe Lynton should try that one next?
'ICM - The Golden Hodge that keeps delivering.'
Are you still selling plonk?
Crap for the country, great for pong's bank account!
Population of Uk = 64 M
Plus there are entrenched and enfranchised groups of yellow-dog opposition to BQ, not least the significant Anglo minority and 'les autres' e.g. Italian-Canadians, Portuguese-Canadians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QysIbmSZB8
A belter of a tune, pity about Benson's later words.
I hope so. This'll be the first election that I can remember where I wouldn't vote Lib Dem to keep out a Tory. If many Labour voters feel the same it'll make quite a difference
Say what you want of the coalition, the Tories and LD's have worked together competently for a full five years. I simply can't see that happening next term if EICIPM - regardless of the fixed term act.
Reports that Greece has reshuffled its bailout negotiating team, or in effect withdrawing finance minister Yanis Varoufakis from front line discussions, has caused Athens' borrowing costs to slide.
Investors hope that the substitution of the combative Mr Varoufakis - replaced, it is understood, in talks with creditors by deputy foreign minister Euclid Tsakalotos - will make for a more collegiate negotiating process. In turn, this should render an agreement more likely.
Even now Ed Davey has the gall to send me , at least, 5 letters saying only he can stop the Conservative.
Really, you s.o.b - You are the Tory !
20% of the people ICM polled said they don't know, the initial numbers before weightings are applied have the Tories on 22% and Labour on 21%. Almost tempting to suggest a poll means nothing when there's that amount of uncertainty still.
100% holds
Carshalton
Eastleigh
Eastbourne
Sutton
Thornbury
99-95
Colchester
Southport
Westmorland
Cambridge
Norfolk North
Lewes
Yeovil is hold #18;
Bath #21
Torbay #22
Real bloodbath in the SW forecast.
Coming up this afternoon: four new marginals, the Ashcroft National Poll, and a Scottish focus group special. See @ConHome, 4pm
Especially when before the election the centre party said they'd expect to work with whoever had most seats.
What do you think was betrayed?
Well, the Libs joined with the Tories. Guess what, it is the Tories who are screwing them.
I sincerely hope he loses at Hallam.
I first thought of this outcome at the start of the year as the polls remained stagnant, but as the election gets closer what was a very long shot has drifted in to be a real possibility.
I just can't see the markets putting up with a 'Belgium' scenario - so have everyone agree to change the leaders, bring in some fresh policies on both sides and run the election again in the autumn. Meanwhile lame ducks Cameron and Miliband get to be in charge of dealing with the shhhh being thrown on all sides for a few months!
Somerton and Frome is 0% Lib Dems to hold btw.
I don't understand why anyone would think that's a good thing. I can't imagine that many of those who praise the current coalition (as a matter of process rather than policy) would be equally satisfied if Clegg had just spent 5 years propping up Brown on a massive spending binge, yet in substance that would be the same: LDs can say they've used their judgement to support a stable government and implement the policies they believe are best for the country.
And if they stood in every UK constituency they'd still be overrepresented in parliament, proportionate to their national share, against UKIP, the Greens and probably the LDs.
Either way, the Tories will be happy for the farce to run for as long as possible.
But, he did with regard to the LibDems.
"The problem they have is very simple: they fought the 2010 election on a platform quite significantly to the left of the Labour party and ended up in a Conservative government with a platform that is significantly to the right of Labour.”
Just shows how nuts and how really fascist the Greens and Nuttily Bennet really are.
Just shows how nuts and how really fascist the Greens and Nuttily Bennet really are.
Eugenics? The Greens really are Class A lunatics.
Just shows how nuts and how really fascist the Greens and Nuttily Bennet really are.
i cannot beleive it's as what the mail is saying....
Kingston and Surbiton BC London Edward Davey Lib. Dem. 21241 James Berry Conservative 18164
According to UK Elect.
I can't find that story on the Daily Mail website, do you have a link?
69% probability to hold according to Election forecast.
Just shows how nuts and how really fascist the Greens and Nuttily Bennet really are.
LOL!
Is this for real?
Is this really true ? Or has someone making fun of The Mail.