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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Meanwhile LAB’s Scottish tICM have 3% CON lead while Populus have a 3% LAB one. In Scotland TNS has SNP 32% ahead
CON extend lead to 3 in latest Guardian ICM poll pic.twitter.com/4pTbLA8dMQ
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http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_guardian_campaignpoll3.pdf
edit: Nope!
The rest all to play for. No idea how it will work out from the polls.
Ed Balls : absolutely no deals with the SNP formal or informal.
So, if the polls are correct then what?? A supremely weak labour minority government?
Or another election?
[* I know, they aren't actually MPs at the moment. But you know what I mean]
The best way of telling which way the political wind is blowing
This week, 2 polls
CON +2
LAB +1
UKIP +2
LD -1
GREEN NC
Since the SPUDs were planted last Monday
19 polls from 11 organisations
CON -6
LAB -12
UKIP +10
LD NC
GREEN +1
Of course, actually governing day-to-day on that basis would be a total nightmare, but that's a different point.
Should we be even *less* confident?
"No."
"But he's holding a sign that says - "
"Look we didn't think it through, ok?" http://t.co/jWQQUJquIb
Right now we have a convergence on the LD & UKIP scores around the 8 and 14% number, but pollsters have not yet accepted a consensus on the Labour-Tory position, yet.
By next Wednesday I think pollsters will have a meeting or something of minds or phone calls to each other, to produce similar numbers as usual.
Good spot. I thought all the pollsters had started including UKIP in their prompts.
The SNP's vote is perfectly structured to deliver a clean sweep.
Other parties might take note that UKIP's is also...
Once again with contrary polls it's clearly down to methodology as to which gets it right:
Propensity to vote - which supporters will turn-out? Regional variation - Nw & Ldn v Sw & Midlands? Age distribution of support - older Tories/Ukip v younger Lab/SNP? How well are the pollsters picking up those registered to vote or those who didn't vote last time. My inclination as well as rationality think ICM is probably closer. The very sameness of YG and Populus also lends doubt.
https://pathwrangler.com/system/images/000/027/686/original/3.jpg?1409140356
With SNP on 55, Both lab and tories on <280 tops depending on if you believe Populus or ICM, what have we got?
Lab + SNP? Ruled out, maybe not enough anyway?
Lab + LD? Not enough
Tory + LD? Not enough
Lab + Con?? Surely not...
Con minority: Won;t last
Lab minority: Even with SNP abstaining on Queen's speech they won;t get much done surely
Tory + SNP: Ruled out
What a mess
In fact they need to flag these sorts of seat numbers which so far they don't seem to - joe public are odd and not political anoraks, they probably have no grasp of the earthquake in scottish politics which could see a party go from a handful of seats to near 50.
The implications for how money is redistributed around the regions is therefore under great threat to what has gone before - and that's often seen to be resented in England already.
the tories should mention the potential seats that could move in to the nationalist hands to re-inforce how much larger a force the snp will be.
It's also no surprise how low a profile Eck is playing in the campaign either as if he was, I think the Tory message would resonate still further with swing voters in E&W.
*now ducks for cover*
Or a false hope...
The blue worry is that ICM are overdoing the Tories, although less so now that the UKIP share has recovered.
Don't know what to make of Populus (And You Gov for that matter). You have to hand to them for sheer consistency on the numbers.
some of the polling companies are likely to be exposed with their pants down come 8th may
I suspect this is a one election thing.
I must see I'm jolly pleased that Labour hasn't got anyone anything like as good as Nicola. If Labour was led by someone as articulate, clear, calm and savvy as she was in her Today interview this morning, they'd be miles ahead of the Tories. She even manages to Tory-bash without personalising it. A class act.
Even with gerrymandered constituencies and the rise of UKIP they are still a million miles from a majority.
The various movements in ICM do seem a bit odd, they might be proved right but they certainly seem out of line with everyone else.
Still at least two more polls to get over excited about to come today
In the same way that nobody really knew how coalition would pan out - in particular, the incredible willingness of the LDs to hitch themselves to "the government" on issues that their supporters didn't agree with, and that they didn't need to support in order to maintain coalition - nobody really knows what will happen here. The only safe assumption is that politicians of all colours would rather join in the party and have some power than maintain a principled distance and risk another election.
They are doing what any rational group of people would do.
CON 280s
LAB 260s
SNP 50s
LD 20s
OTHERS / NI the rest.
Almost the perfect storm for UK politics.
But I suspect the change in the UKIP, LD numbers in ICM is more to do with a fear that ICM might have egg on it's face if they stuck to their previous numbers.
Looking at the underlying questions, you'd think Cameron getting a second term was a shoe-in - 50% of all voters, if I'm reading it right, think he's done "a good job" as opposed to 38% a bad one and 12% don't knows. The corresponding ratings for the other leaders aren't great, even for the Sainted Sturgeon.
All supports my long-expressed gut feel that most people either want or would acquiesce in a Cameron second term, but the voting on May 7th simply won't produce that outcome. I'm convinced many UKIP-intending voters believe a vote for UKIP will force a more right wing/anti-EU agenda on Dave, but it won't - it will put Ed in.
Why aren't the Tories telling these voters that, instead of continuing with the SNP scaremongering?
Changes in vote share will be very interesting
I did hear on the grapevine, the Tory candidate for Buckingham next time around might be one Sol Campbell.
The theme tune has been WORRY WORRY WORRY SEPARATION BAD WORRY SNP BAD DOLLS HAIRCUTS SEPARATION BAAAD.
Of course, that may not be what has played south of the border - whether in reality or in the media. But it has ended up with the utterly paradoxical situation in Scotland where the SNP are actually campaigning for seats in the UK Parliament and the Unionist parties seem to have given up on the Union if the SNP win.
In terms of legislation, nothing will pass without their say so. Merely abstain, and Ed loses every division of the House.
They must be wetting themselves. They've won the lottery jackpot, due to FPTP.
The latest polls appear to show a little something for everyone, the only surprise is the TNS Scotland Poll - who'd have thunk the SNP lead over Labour could get even bigger?
The more sensible posters, like yourself, are far more pragmatic, as can be said for the blue side.
Or are you just making things up?
Is UKIP on 18% (Survation) or 10% (ComRes)? Are phone pollsters suffering from shy Kippers, or are on-line pollsters boosted by highly engaged activists?
I thought I'd go and look at elections in Europe where insurgent parties have made great progress, and see if there's anything to learn. Now: don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that UKIP is like the Front National, or Podemos, or the Finns, or the PVV. All I'm doing is looking in these countries and seeing whether phone or internet pollsters are more accurate at predicting x's in boxes.
So, first up, Finland's General Election.
A remarkably un-polled election! According to Wikipedia, only three pollsters took part - and they all appear to be phone pollsters: Result: phone pollsters underestimated the Finns' share by a little more than 1%.
Next: France and polling for the recent departmental elections.
We have the opposite issue in France, in that all the pollsters used Internet panels. Result: internet pollsters over-estimated the FN by 4 to 5%.
I was going to do Greece, but was unable to work out which pollsters were internet and which were phone, so hard to draw any definitive conclusions. For the record, of the last 10 polls, five underestimated SYRIZA's share, and five overestimated it.
Now to Spain where there were elections to the Andalucia parliament.
Here we have a lot of polls, and a fair amount of divergence in the likely result: Result: Podemos scored at the low end of the range of polls. However, it would appear (and I would caveat that we only know the type of half the polls), that the phone pollsters were much more accurate than the Internet ones who appeared to over-estimate Podemos by 4 to 5%.
Of course, this is a longstanding issue - but the SNP bring it into very sharp and easily understandable focus.
What's particularly sad about all of this, is that the Coalition delayed helping the oil industry under the naïve impression that it would some how damage the SNP. Good riddance to the lot of them in my book - I look forward to the pathetic scrabbling around for H of L seats, I can already see the DT/DM rabid headlines about the new Scottish invasion of the H of L.
If so, I would suspect Labour and Greens would be the big losers.
If I lived in Rochester I might contemplate voting for him.
https://twitter.com/markreckless
Rather than saying Ed will be the SNP's prisoner as PM, perhaps we should be saying he'll be Boris's.
I note that LD switchers to Con have reduced a bit to 13% and Lab switchers to UKIP have increased a bit to 7%.
The result is a 2% Con lead over Lab, but Con and Lab both on 270 seats. (42 Lab gains from Con)
It is very sensitive to what happens to the UKIP vote in the 42 Con/Lab marginals. A hard Con squeeze of UKIP could reduce the Lab gains to 20 (i.e. Con/Lab on 290/250 seats). This is the big unknown.
The other unknown is how new voters vote. My model is based on 2010 voter behaviour. But the Populus data has 26% of respondents not voting in 2010.
These break 23% Con, 34% Lab, 6% LD, 21% UKIP, 17% Green.
A big advantage for Labour. But most of these probably won't vote this time either so it is hard to model.
And the big unknown after 10pm on 7th May is how the LD MPs break.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election
That's probably about the right price, tbh
I'd back it at 50/1 and lay it at 20/1
If it has been such an issue, why has it not been raised before? DUP, UUP, SF, and so on have been around for decades.