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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Could shy Kippers become a problem for pollsters like shy Tories in the 90s was?
Shy isn’t the first adjective I’d normally associate with UKIP supporters, but ever since David Cameron’s (in)famous comment about UKIP being a bunch of “fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly” there’s been a perception that UKIP are the BNP in blazers.
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Personally I'm not embarrassed to tells friends and family that I'm voting Ukip. But under no circumstances would I want my work colleagues to know!
Ukip's share of the vote will be one of the interesting things on the night - though it probably won't make much difference to the number of seats that Ukip wins.
Of course, Ukip's performance could be vital in determining the outcome of Tory-Labour marginals.
"... the by-election polls (all of which are conducted by phone) that have underestimated UKIP’s vote share have tended to be in more “Labour” areas (Barnsley, Wythenshawe & Sale East and Heywood & Middleton), whereas in contests with the Conservatives (Newark, Clacton and Rochester & Strood) the polls have relatively accurately measured the UKIP vote share, or even modestly overestimated it."
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/polling-divergence-phone-versus-online-and-established-versus-new/
Although this might also be that in Labour seats UKIP is drawing support from 2010 non-voters rather than 2010 converts, and they are being down-weighted by the pollsters.
The recent Mellon/Evans article said that Labour do not have to worry so much about UKIP eating into their current vote, as they appeal more to the Old Labour supporters who stopped voting Labour during the New Labour years.
Such a person may well be less embarrassed to admit voting UKIP, since they don't really support them, but they're probably less likely to say they're proud of voting UKIP than a genuine supporter.
Thinking ahead to May 7th/8th, some of the early declarations are unlikely to be useful in determining how the election is going to pan out. In those Sunderland seats the rise of Ukip could give a false impression of the swing from the Tories to Labour in the rest of the country, though I'm not sure in which direction. Still, it could be fun watching politicians getting overly excited about something that means very little!
On topic: the first table shows more clearly than anything else I've seen the problem that all our politicians have. It also suggests that, despite the widest choice in living memory, turnout may well be at the lower end of expectations. Solidaristic voting is a thing of the past...
I had a look at Ashcroft's Thurrock numbers yesterday.
On the basis of 2010 voters, UKIP are a distant third. They need the disengaged to turn out in substantial numbers and are locked in a two way fight with Labour for the C2DE vote, the Tories are comfortably ahead among ABC1.
They seem to have been trying to pass themselves off as UKIP, so it's certainly possible that their voters had told pollsters they intended to vote for UKIP.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#Results
http://news.yahoo.com/rich-richer-uk-index-wealthiest-people-213733069.html
Any other party's poll results changed significantly? :|Innocent Face|:
http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/5981/thirdreicheagle.jpg
http://wingsoverscotland.com/
Powers of prediction undiminished.
I think Party X would do a deal with Party Y it would put me off Party X:
Con + UKIP: 27
Con + LD: 20
Lab + LD: 18
Lab + SNP: 40
If the SNP do manage to win a large number of seats at the general election - thirty, forty or more - do you think it will be a good or bad thing for British politics?
Net 'good thing'
E&W: -41
Scot: +6
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/jermn7st06/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-250415.pdf
"Is there a National Socialist kit, where you customise a prepared blank?"
I think you're right. All Nationalist/fascist movements seem to base their logos on the Nazi symbol of an eagle above a swastika
Sun in utter panic now
EXCL - The Bozfather: Boris blasts back-stabbing Ed
Counterproductive bollox IMO
Of course none of the newspapers have the readership they once enjoyed, so whoever they back it's never going to have the influence it once did. All the printed press are down more than 50% on their numbers in the 90s. And The Sun puts its articles behind a paywall, which further limits their impact. I'd imagine internet and social media is much more influential these days. The Sun may tweet out all their stories, but you need to be signed up to Sun+ to read the actual content.
And before we get all the BS about Labour's unfair advantage under the current electoral map, let's remember that FPTP also gives the Tories a huge advantage over most other parties, so that 35% of the vote will deliver for more than 35% of MPs.
Yougov often ask the embarrassed/proud question on all sorts of market research. Would you be proud/embarrassed to work for the BBC/Channel 4/Daily Express type question.
The top bar chart looks as if it was asked of all respondents, not just kippers, so an LD like me would say they would be embarrassed to vote UKIP. Not a meaningful question really, and it explains why voters are embarrassed by all parties, with the bigger two showing less embarrassment. I do not believe that there are many shy Greens either!
The second question shows there is not much shy about kippers. They are proud of their party and beliefs. They are a marmite party that brings out strong feelings in one direction or another.
"On Rogerdamus 'the Tory story about Labour-SNP will put voters off Tory'........
Powers of prediction undiminished."
Thanks Carlotta. Your praise is always welcome. As it happens in this instance I don't believe their questions could reach those conclusions. The only way you could would be through a complex questionaire or face to face in a focus group.
I can't seem to find the post now, but UKIP Wales did have a piece up detailing some of the intimidation they/their candidates have experienced. If I recall correctly two UKIP shops have burned down, and candidates have been 'approached' either with commercial threats (losing public sector contracts) or open physical threats to themselves/their families.
The polling question by Yougov about being in touch with the concerns of ordinary people is always revealing for the Tories. Unless you can evidence that you are looking after most people and understand their lifes, then votes will go to other parties.
UKIP are not picking up tactical votes in Labour safe seats. I think that they are winning genuine converts there.
What is actually happening is that the right is going through one of those spasms that happen every couple of generations or so* (1825s-1835s, 1846-1864, 1908-1913 for instance) and that will make it very difficult for them to win. UKIP are this generation's Ultras* and this generation's Ditchers*: irrelevant in the long term as they will fade away as society continues to change, but passionate about defending their (principally) social values.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra-Tories
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ditchers
Eton bad: Minor public school good
It's interesting where you draw the line and build the barricade, Roger.
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/the-impact-of-coalition-on-the-2015-general-election/#.VTyJWiFVhHw
This shows that people are much more likely to vote for the smaller parties if they expect a hung parliament.
That suggests 2005/2010 low turnout seats might be the surprises on election night.
Pen hovered over Trade Union Socialist Coalition and Green but ended up in Lab box.
"It is utterly extraordinary that the Tories are not romping home."
Even after the most incoherent campaign anyone can remember and the visible flowering of Ed over the last four weeks?
I get a real sense that Labour have become 'the hope over fear' party which as you suggest is a miracle. And I think most of it is down to the reflected glow of Ed's backing group Nicola Leanne and Natalie making the left look fashionable
Matthew Parris thought the Conservatives could ditch places like Clacton and other struggling towns, because they don't represent the future. But, perhaps the Clactons, Grimsbys, Great Yarmouths etc. (as well as Tower Hamlets and Rotherham) do represent the future
If I do vote Ukip,and I probably will, it won't be a matter of pride. It will be because I feel insulted by the mainstream politicians. It may be my getting older, but I feel increasingly annoyed by childish politics.
A recent example ... Ed and his article in the Muslim newspaper saying he is going to outlaw Isamophobia. Extra punishments for insulting a selected group who are special. Je ne suis Charlie indeed.
Why not pick out Christianophobia? Why not Jewishphobia? Oh wait a minute, there is something called antisemitismy - something some of my Muslim colleagues, although otherwise affable, are certainly guilty of. So he's talking about selective protection for a favoured group.
Or more likely, and giving him the benefit of the doubt, he will hope to garner a few votes and then quietly ignore his promise.
Being all things to all men is an LD pastime and Cameron is no slouch, but why do they think it works. Because the voters are fools.
Nicola has some odd policies but she tends to say it as she sees it. Even the Greens are deluded but honest.
Lie to me by all means, I expect you to, but don't insult my intelligence by treating us all as children.
1997: 25,000
2001: 19,000
2005: 15,000
2010: 10,000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Grimsby_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
The top rate is still higher than it was under Labour. It's an indication of the direction of travel, nothing more. The people who have really benefited under this government are those that have benefited from the substantial increases in the personal allowance.
And Matthew Paris speaks for no one but himself. His job is to be amusing and controversial.
If that's accurate, shy Lib Dems could be a factor as well [less embarrassed than Kippers, but also less proud].
I've had some unexpected politicians follow me. The Venezuelan minister was perhaps the most surprising.
Edited extra bit: incidentally, what commonly happens is getting followed, then unfollowed as politicians seek to increase their follower numbers. Some dubious fellow by the name of Grant Shapps did that, I think.
They don't like the SNP.
They might flog off social housing in a Thatcher lite kind of way.
Possibly a few extra quid here and there to garner some votes.
Er, that's it.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8672976.stm
2014 UKIP EU Parliament support map.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)
"Labour---> UKIP switchers are the type of people who voted for Thatcher in the 1980s."
As Oscar Wilde nearly said, I seem to have travelled from socialism in my youth through to possibly Ukip now without an intervening period of madness (Tory). Socialism always had an illogical feel to me as a scientist because free speech always equalled selective free speech.
I may go back to voting LD in the future - who knows?
Ed is up for it and better than we thought.
A little bit nicer in every way, but not recklessly nice
Can't answer the SNP challenge
LibDems
Wants to be a head or heart...
... But still an arse.
Not as mad as 2010
Not as interesting as 2014
Mr. Owls, I did go through them a while ago and unfollowed a fair few. I followed Davidson back, and will see whether she abandons me.
1. Online polls mostly small Labour lead.
2. Phone polls slightly bigger Con lead.
3. Regional, age, registered swings and turnout could easily produce results very different from the pollsters.
4. Unnecessary panic among some Tories.
5. Bizarre complacency among some Labourites - not least NPXMP
6. I have no clue as to how it will all turn out.
7. The £ could be in for a bumpy ride.
8. Scotland is pretty clearly another country now but we may have to move the border north to accommodate the current blue border towns.
Conservatives: Scotland! (The horror)
SNP: Scotland! (Fantastic)
Labour: OK, we can't tax and spend, but we don't like businessmen. We'll make the rich pay somehow.
Lib Dems: we can't find the unmute button.
UKIP: unfocused ranting and HIV stats.
Party I am voting for is not my first choice - but stands better chance of beating someone I like even less:
Con: 9
Lab: 12
Lib Dem: 20
UKIP: 14
So, just to be clear, Conservative voters are least likely to vote tactically.....
Trump, Murphy, Ronnie can't wait.
@EmmaReynoldsMP: To be clear Mark and others, it is not Labour party policy to introduce rent controls. @Markfergusonuk
Oh
E&W:
Con: 32
Lab: 48
LibD: 2
UKIP: 8
Scotland
Con: 19
Lab: 18
LibD: 1
SNP: 59
So what tactical voting there is is anti-SNP in Scotland, and predominantly anti-Labour in England....
What happened to the 'anti-Tory majority'?