Even on a bad night for Labour generally, I expect them to run rampant in the Lib-Lab marginals, I think they'll take a lot more than 6. I kind of see where you're coming from with Bradford East, since Bradford does have a history of erratic election results, but an Ashcroft poll last year gave Labour a lead of more than 20% even on the "thinking about your constituency" question.
Tbh, I'm starting to think that the Lib Dems limiting their losses to the Tories to just 19 might be a tad optimistic, if the reports from the SW are anywhere near accurate.
I think the reports of LD collapse in the SW are overdone. In the main they are based on a single Comres poll which was an average across the region. But the variation across constituencies is significant. The LD vote has collapsed in Bristol but Ashcroft shows LDs hanging on (just) in Cornwall N, St Ives, Thornbury (easily), Torbay.
You just ignoring the Ashcroft poll of Bristol West? Liberals down in third on a pitiful 16%. It is every bit as bad as the SW Regional poll indicated.
Clearly you missed the part of Barnesian's post where he specifically mentioned Bristol West.
At the top of Buchanan Street, 2000 people quit their shopping to listen to Nicola Sturgeon launch her Women's Manifesto on the steps of the Concert Hall. Meanwhile in George Square half a mile away, Tommy Sheridan and a lot of the hard left are putting on a #hopeoverfear rally for another 3000 or so urging them all to back the SNP in the election.
Meanwhile Jim Murphy's in Neilston with two activists.
Lol - I adore David Cameron and the Tories but no way would I let them interrupt my shopping. There has to be some serious loons up there.
and the government of the day will have every interest in giving the Act's political implications a narrower interpretation than that for which the academics contend.
The Cabinet Manual seems to indicate what people have already made of them:-
'2.19 Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, if a government is defeated on a motion that ‘this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, there is then a 14-day period during which an alternative government can be formed from the House of Commons as presently constituted, or the incumbent government can seek to regain the confidence of the House. If no government can secure the confidence of the House of Commons during that period, through the approval of a motion that ‘this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government’, a general election will take place. Other decisions of the House of Commons which have previously been regarded as expressing ‘no confidence’ in the government no longer enable or require the Prime Minister to hold a general election. The Prime Minister is expected to resign where it is clear that he or she does not have the confidence of the House of Commons and that an alternative government does have the confidence.'
So sitting tight for an election and not giving a viable Opposition the chance does not seem to be an option. The CabMan goes on to say that the principles that apply are the same that apply after an indecisive election result.
'2.12 Where an election does not result in an overall majority for a single party, the incumbent government remains in office unless and until the Prime Minister tenders his or her resignation and the Government’s resignation to the Sovereign. An incumbent government is entitled to wait until the new Parliament has met to see if it can command the confidence of the House of Commons, but is expected to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence and there is a clear alternative.'
Are you saying that Cameron can stay in No.10 and , after 2 weeks, ask the Queen to call a second election without giving Miliband a chance to succeed in amotion of no confidence.
That would bring the Queen into politics !
No, I'm saying the contrary. The words "expected to resign" are code, I think, for "will otherwise be dismissed"...
I think the reports of LD collapse in the SW are overdone. In the main they are based on a single Comres poll which was an average across the region. But the variation across constituencies is significant. The LD vote has collapsed in Bristol but Ashcroft shows LDs hanging on (just) in Cornwall N, St Ives, Thornbury (easily), Torbay.
Again though, those Ashcroft polls which show the Lib Dems in the lead are prompting people to think about the local area. In every one of those seats, the Tories were ahead on the generic voting intentions question.
To be sure, some people will be going into the polling booths thinking about the local area (about how nice their smiley Lib Dem MP is, and how they managed to get dog mess cleared off the road that one time), but a lot of people are going to be primarily thinking about who they want in government.
LDs 11-20 seat band still widely available at 4/1. This has to be value, given the 23-25 spread, and the Ashcroft polling.
Yes, with how strongly the Tories are performing in the South West, I'm finding it very hard to see how the Lib Dems could get above 20 seats.
That's easy: they to 20 seats by losing:
6 to Labour 10 to the SNP and 19 to the Conservatives
Why so few to Labour? Because once you get past the obvious 5 in the betting odds, you get to Bradford East, where David Ward is probably a 50/50 shot to get re-elected and Hornsey and Wood Green, where there is a very substantial Conservative vote to squeeze. (In the rich, very Conservative voting, Highgate end of the constituency, the LibDems are going hard on "Would you rather a Con-LD coalition, or a Lab-SNP one?" And I think it's working - admittedly based solely on the Conservative voters I know.)
It's also possible that you only get 9 losses to the SNP. Jo Swinson has a chance if she can get tactical votes for her. The border seats look incredibly close. And I think Viscount Thurso - alone of Scottish Liberal Democrats - will get a meaningful personal vote.
That doesn't mean the 4-1 isn't good value. It's outstanding value and I've maxed out the amount that I'm allowed to bet on it with a bunch of bookmakers. But it is perfectly possible to see how the LibDems get 20 seats.
Interesting your observation on Jo Swinson. The sheer virulence of the nationalist campaign against her is astonishing. This is what some particularly malignant individual tweeted about this likeable and hard working young mother in reaction to a piece written by Isabel Hardman about the constituency.
"Jo Swinson Nick Clegg is, without any doubt, one of the most reprehensible characters I've laid eyes upon"
No wonder Clegg will have no truck with these extremists..
Cameron forgetting what football team he is supposed to support.
What a cock.
I'm stunned, and no wonder Labour are having an absolute field day. It's not just a bit awkward, it proves one of the central charges consistently laid against him, that he's a fraud.
Part of me is glad he'll be gone in weeks. He's proved such a massive disappointment on so many levels, and I was one of his biggest supporters when Howard resigned.
The thing is I can accept that we all have brain freeze moments when we forget the most obvious or simple things. I am sure most people have that terrible feeling of a simple word or name on the tip of your tongue even though you know it is one you might use a dozen times a day.
But what I can't accept is that at that moment anyone would randomly spout out another name completely. Why would you? Just picking another team out at random makes no sense whatsoever, even with brain freeze.
No idea what this means for Cameron or what sort of person he is but it does seem all rather weird.
Mr. Tyndall, (and many others), there are such things as action slips [akin to Freudian slips] where we just get things wrong. Examples would be putting your toothbrush in the toilet rather than the mug, or the time I accidentally said "Yes" when asked if I wanted mushy peas.
Just finished Sallust's works. Covers the Catiline conspiracy, the Jugurthine War and refers to the Mithridatic Wars, although due to the fragmentary nature of the Histories it neglects the moment Pompey forgot which football team he supported, and dwells instead on the minor matters to which I have referred.
A Tory leaflet through my door this afternoon. Contrasts Cameron with "a coalition of chaos" under Labour and then shows a photo of Ed M, Clegg, Surgeon and, er, Nigel Farage. Surely shome mistake?
Finally had a Tory leaflet in Newton Abbott and it was all about the local elections to Teignbridge council, nothing about the general election at all.
The Lib Dem was only about 500 votes behind here in 2010, but it's being viewed (rightly) as a completely foregone conclusion.
The thing is I can accept that we all have brain freeze moments when we forget the most obvious or simple things. I am sure most people have that terrible feeling of a simple word or name on the tip of your tongue even though you know it is one you might use a dozen times a day.
But what I can't accept is that at that moment anyone would randomly spout out another name completely. Why would you? Just picking another team out at random makes no sense whatsoever, even with brain freeze.
No idea what this means for Cameron or what sort of person he is but it does seem all rather weird.
I've occasionally said totally the wrong thing by mistake.
"When I read Dair on Jo Swindon, the level of vitriol is such that I must admit I'd vote tactically for her."
Most of the Nats make unpleasant reading
Yes, whether they are left wing or right wing. In fact, have we had a left wing Nat on PB ?
Oh yes. No names, no packdrill, but I can assure you that we have a range. It's the lack of self-avowed Slabbers which continues to be the anomaly (unless it reflects a genuine collapse in the SLAB wider movement, of course).
People are complaining that our PM misspoke a name?
That's the issue for the election?
Not Labour's deficit. Not how we will handle Grexit. Not Russia's resurgence. Not how to improve business and jobs. Not how to integrate the various cultures in this country. Not the decision over the EU. Not anything of any real importance whatsoever.
Forgetting the name of a Football Club ..almost as serious as forgetting the Deficit..
Forgetting the name of his football club.
He is just one of us, isn't he ? We also forget which team we support from childhood to death.
A fraud !
Foxinsoxuk's Leicester City 1 - David Camerons Burnley - nil
Burnley will be his club next week ! Are there any marginal there ? Burnley itself is one.
Burnley's not a marginal. It's a safe Labour seat which due to ill-feeling about Kitty Ussher and her expenses, the Londoner parachuted in previously, surprisingly went Lib Dem in 2010.
It will return to the fold with ease on May 7th - Labour majority of 6,000 I reckon.
Pendle is full of Burnley supporters though, and to a lesser extent Rossendale, Calder Valley and Keighley (the latter where Campbell comes from)
Anyway, best not to mention Burnley given we've just been all but mathematically relegated today...
I think the reports of LD collapse in the SW are overdone. In the main they are based on a single Comres poll which was an average across the region. But the variation across constituencies is significant. The LD vote has collapsed in Bristol but Ashcroft shows LDs hanging on (just) in Cornwall N, St Ives, Thornbury (easily), Torbay.
Again though, those Ashcroft polls which show the Lib Dems in the lead are prompting people to think about the local area. In every one of those seats, the Tories were ahead on the generic voting intentions question.
To be sure, some people will be going into the polling booths thinking about the local area (about how nice their smiley Lib Dem MP is, and how they managed to get dog mess cleared off the road that one time), but a lot of people are going to be primarily thinking about who they want in government.
I believe the question is thinking about "your constituency"; we shall see if that is a useful predictor after the election.
Personally, I think the biggest determinant of LibDem seats is going to be their aggregate vote tally:
Forgetting the name of a Football Club ..almost as serious as forgetting the Deficit..
Forgetting the name of his football club.
He is just one of us, isn't he ? We also forget which team we support from childhood to death.
A fraud !
Foxinsoxuk's Leicester City 1 - David Camerons Burnley - nil
Burnley will be his club next week ! Are there any marginal there ? Burnley itself is one.
Burnley's not a marginal. It's a safe Labour seat which due to ill-feeling about Kitty Ussher and her expenses, the Londoner parachuted in previously, surprisingly went Lib Dem in 2010.
It will return to the fold with ease on May 7th - Labour majority of 6,000 I reckon.
Pendle is full of Burnley supporters though, and to a lesser extent Rossendale, Calder Valley and Keighley (the latter where Campbell comes from)
Anyway, best not to mention Burnley given we've just been all but mathematically relegated today...
Labour majority of more than 10k, I'd reckon. Same in Redcar. Same in Bristol West.
I think the reports of LD collapse in the SW are overdone. In the main they are based on a single Comres poll which was an average across the region. But the variation across constituencies is significant. The LD vote has collapsed in Bristol but Ashcroft shows LDs hanging on (just) in Cornwall N, St Ives, Thornbury (easily), Torbay.
Again though, those Ashcroft polls which show the Lib Dems in the lead are prompting people to think about the local area. In every one of those seats, the Tories were ahead on the generic voting intentions question.
To be sure, some people will be going into the polling booths thinking about the local area (about how nice their smiley Lib Dem MP is, and how they managed to get dog mess cleared off the road that one time), but a lot of people are going to be primarily thinking about who they want in government.
I believe the question is thinking about "your constituency"; we shall see if that is a useful predictor after the election.
Personally, I think the biggest determinant of LibDem seats is going to be their aggregate vote tally:
4% difference in vote share makes a difference of 22 seats.
That looks about right to me. I have spoken to enough people over thd last week with no clue who their MP is, or how FPTP works that I cannot see the local question makes much difference.
Doug Ellis is his uncle. The former owner of Aston Villa.
But I think he likes Karen Brady for other reasons.
Deadly Doug wasn't his uncle, it was Sir William Dugdale, chairman for seven years sandwiched between two Ellis eras. He was chairman when they won the European Cup, which makes it bizarre that Cameron doesn't remember what year it was.
People are complaining that our PM misspoke a name?
That's the issue for the election?
Not Labour's deficit. Not how we will handle Grexit. Not Russia's resurgence. Not how to improve business and jobs. Not how to integrate the various cultures in this country. Not the decision over the EU. Not anything of any real importance whatsoever.
Great Britain today.
Can't blame anyone but Cameron for pretending to support a football club when he doesn't. His phoniness is a consistent aspect of his public persona. Huskies, windmills, bikes, Morrisons, Guinness, Easyjet and so on. Why he does it is a mystery. It does indicate a touch of distrust for the electorate - he does not believe they will take him as he is.
Labour sporting celebrities Gary Linekar, Alistair Campbell, Brian Moore and Piers Morgan are sneering aggresively at Dave's slip of the tongue. This is starting to look like bullying. Could garner Dave some sympathy with those of us who aren't mentally perfect.
I think the reports of LD collapse in the SW are overdone. In the main they are based on a single Comres poll which was an average across the region. But the variation across constituencies is significant. The LD vote has collapsed in Bristol but Ashcroft shows LDs hanging on (just) in Cornwall N, St Ives, Thornbury (easily), Torbay.
Again though, those Ashcroft polls which show the Lib Dems in the lead are prompting people to think about the local area. In every one of those seats, the Tories were ahead on the generic voting intentions question.
To be sure, some people will be going into the polling booths thinking about the local area (about how nice their smiley Lib Dem MP is, and how they managed to get dog mess cleared off the road that one time), but a lot of people are going to be primarily thinking about who they want in government.
I believe the question is thinking about "your constituency"; we shall see if that is a useful predictor after the election.
Personally, I think the biggest determinant of LibDem seats is going to be their aggregate vote tally:
4% difference in vote share makes a difference of 22 seats.
That looks about right to me. I have spoken to enough people over thd last week with no clue who their MP is, or how FPTP works that I cannot see the local question makes much difference.
I think that's why the LibDems are big on the poster bombing thing...
If Lord Ashcroft Question 1 is completely right, and Q2 completely wrong then the Lib Dems are looking at an almost complete wipeout with just Carmichael and Farron left I reckon.
Whilst I was driving through the outskirts of leafy St Albans Mrs JackW did her duty by PB and noted the following :
Con 6 .. Lab 5 .. LibDem 15 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. PC 0 .. SNP 0 .. Respect 0 .. NI 0 .. Speaker 0
PB yellow perilists shouldn't throw their sandals in the air in gay abandon as the dreaded orange diamonds (and candidate portrait posters) usually litter the streets by about 4 to 1.
The thing is I can accept that we all have brain freeze moments when we forget the most obvious or simple things. I am sure most people have that terrible feeling of a simple word or name on the tip of your tongue even though you know it is one you might use a dozen times a day.
But what I can't accept is that at that moment anyone would randomly spout out another name completely. Why would you? Just picking another team out at random makes no sense whatsoever, even with brain freeze.
No idea what this means for Cameron or what sort of person he is but it does seem all rather weird.
Labour sporting celebrities Gary Linekar, Alistair Campbell, Brian Moore and Piers Morgan are sneering aggresively at Dave's slip of the tongue. This is starting to look like bullying. Could garner Dave some sympathy with those of us who aren't mentally perfect.
"Slip of my tongue" - Jack W's arse !
Not at all. It makes him look like what he is, a prat !
Whilst I was driving through the outskirts of leafy St Albans Mrs JackW did her duty by PB and noted the following :
Con 6 .. Lab 5 .. LibDem 15 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. PC 0 .. SNP 0 .. Respect 0 .. NI 0 .. Speaker 0
PB yellow perilists shouldn't throw through sandals in the air in gay abandon as the dreaded orange diamonds (and candidate portrait posters) usually litter the streets by about 4 to 1.
Having crossed your borders this week, I was reassured to note the score was:
Con 0 .. Lab 0 .. LibDem 0 .. Green 0 .. UKIP 0 .. PC 0 .. SNP 0 .. Respect 0 .. NI 0 .. Speaker 0
Quite right too. Same in Wheathampstead but nr Welwyn I nearly totalled my car against a Tory car with speakers on the roof (wasn't the party chairman!)
In Royal Bercow, I've seen 2 Bercow, 0 the field.
Sorry OGH... but this is guaranteed to make most PB Tories feel a nice warm glow:
Olly.. Miligeek has been a fraud since day one..and it will continue in Downing Street if the country really loses its collective marbles..who gives a flying feck about a football club..lots of my braindead footie friends follow the club that is at the top of the league..to be associated with winners..sad...and of course Blair loved to watch Jacky Milburn playing .. except he never did watch him.
Labour sporting celebrities Gary Linekar, Alistair Campbell, Brian Moore and Piers Morgan are sneering aggresively at Dave's slip of the tongue. This is starting to look like bullying. Could garner Dave some sympathy with those of us who aren't mentally perfect.
If he'd been, for example, a West Brom fan and said West Ham, then fair enough. Slip of the tongue, even if still vaguely embarrassing.
Aston Villa becoming West Ham is not a slip of the tongue. It's someone who doesn't know the first thing about football thinking "that team i'm supposed to support, play in claret and blue, what are they called - West Ham, yes that's them". Or a speechwriter monumentally f---d up.
But either way, it's confirmed him as a fraud.
I want him to lose now. He's a cretin and a liability. Let's have Miliband as comedy PM for a bit, and get Boris in pronto for when Miliband's administration collapses.
People are complaining that our PM misspoke a name?
That's the issue for the election?
Not Labour's deficit. Not how we will handle Grexit. Not Russia's resurgence. Not how to improve business and jobs. Not how to integrate the various cultures in this country. Not the decision over the EU. Not anything of any real importance whatsoever.
Great Britain today.
Can't blame anyone but Cameron for pretending to support a football club when he doesn't. His phoniness is a consistent aspect of his public persona. Huskies, windmills, bikes, Morrisons, Guinness, Easyjet and so on. Why he does it is a mystery. It does indicate a touch of distrust for the electorate - he does not believe they will take him as he is.
I think no one doubts that Dave is a phoney. It is why the kippers in particular dislike him. They cannot trust him. Despite nearly 10 years in the spotlight as Tory leader, and five years as PM, he remains an enigma.
It is a bit like Tony Blairs Jackie Milburn moment. I don't think there is real malice in his deception, just an inability to understand what the truth is. As an earlier politician Pontius Pilate remarked "What is truth?"
As an aside; it is possible to change football teams, I was born in Lancs but started going to Leicester City when my lad went football mad ages 8. I no longer care for any other team.
It's not in the least surprising .The man is working his socks off and must have a total information overload.I couldn't care less what team any of them support.I want to hear more details about all the manifestos.What they mean for me and my family.
The media are not doing us any favours by concentrating on trivia.No wonder the public has tuned out and the polls are moribund.
LDs 11-20 seat band still widely available at 4/1. This has to be value, given the 23-25 spread, and the Ashcroft polling.
Yes, with how strongly the Tories are performing in the South West, I'm finding it very hard to see how the Lib Dems could get above 20 seats.
That's easy: they to 20 seats by losing:
6 to Labour 10 to the SNP and 19 to the Conservatives
Why so few to Labour? Because once you get past the obvious 5 in the betting odds, you get to Bradford East, where David Ward is probably a 50/50 shot to get re-elected and Hornsey and Wood Green, where there is a very substantial Conservative vote to squeeze. (In the rich, very Conservative voting, Highgate end of the constituency, the LibDems are going hard on "Would you rather a Con-LD coalition, or a Lab-SNP one?" And I think it's working - admittedly based solely on the Conservative voters I know.)
It's also possible that you only get 9 losses to the SNP. Jo Swinson has a chance if she can get tactical votes for her. The border seats look incredibly close. And I think Viscount Thurso - alone of Scottish Liberal Democrats - will get a meaningful personal vote.
That doesn't mean the 4-1 isn't good value. It's outstanding value and I've maxed out the amount that I'm allowed to bet on it with a bunch of bookmakers. But it is perfectly possible to see how the LibDems get 20 seats.
Even on a bad night for Labour generally, I expect them to run rampant in the Lib-Lab marginals, I think they'll take a lot more than 6. I kind of see where you're coming from with Bradford East, since Bradford does have a history of erratic election results, but an Ashcroft poll last year gave Labour a lead of more than 20% even on the "thinking about your constituency" question.
Tbh, I'm starting to think that the Lib Dems limiting their losses to the Tories to just 19 might be a tad optimistic, if the reports from the SW are anywhere near accurate.
Believe me, Lib Dem < 20 seats. They are like a dockside hooker !
Perhaps Surbiton can reveal to the rest of us what a dockside hooker is like?
So Cam reckons the first BME PM will be a Tory. ...
It would be true to form.
First Jewish leader (and PM) First unmarried leader (and PM). First female leader (and PM). Oldest leader this century (and PM). Youngest leader this century (and youngest PM this century) First openly homosexual leader (Scottish rather than UK level)
I see no reason why the first non-white leader shouldn't be a Tory either.
First Jewish leader is not true. D'israeli converted to christianity long before he became PM, but of course for the vast majority of UK christians of all types - even today, once born a Jew, always a Jew.
Labour sporting celebrities Gary Linekar, Alistair Campbell, Brian Moore and Piers Morgan are sneering aggresively at Dave's slip of the tongue. This is starting to look like bullying. Could garner Dave some sympathy with those of us who aren't mentally perfect.
"Slip of my tongue" - Jack W's arse !
Not at all. It makes him look like what he is, a prat !
You presumably have never made a verbal lapse. Fair enough. I claim no such perfection and as such find your sneering at those less perfect than you graceless.
Whilst I was driving through the outskirts of leafy St Albans Mrs JackW did her duty by PB and noted the following :
Con 6 .. Lab 5 .. LibDem 15 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. PC 0 .. SNP 0 .. Respect 0 .. NI 0 .. Speaker 0
PB yellow perilists shouldn't throw through sandals in the air in gay abandon as the dreaded orange diamonds (and candidate portrait posters) usually litter the streets by about 4 to 1.
Having crossed your borders this week, I was reassured to note the score was:
Con 0 .. Lab 0 .. LibDem 0 .. Green 0 .. UKIP 0 .. PC 0 .. SNP 0 .. Respect 0 .. NI 0 .. Speaker 0
It's not in the least surprising .The man is working his socks off and must have a total information overload.I couldn't care less what team any of them support.I want to hear more details about all the manifestos.What they mean for me and my family.
The media are not doing us any favours by concentrating on trivia.No wonder the public has tuned out and the polls are moribund.
Why the hell did Cameron feel the need to indicate support for a football club in the first place? This just comes over as him lacking authenticity which is bad. So what if he doesn't have a football team that he cares about?
If Lord Ashcroft Question 1 is completely right, and Q2 completely wrong then the Lib Dems are looking at an almost complete wipeout with just Carmichael and Farron left I reckon.
Julian Huppert will hold on in Cambridge. I think there were a couple of SW London seats where the LDs were ahead even without Q2 too.
So Cam reckons the first BME PM will be a Tory. ...
It would be true to form.
First Jewish leader (and PM) First unmarried leader (and PM). First female leader (and PM). Oldest leader this century (and PM). Youngest leader this century (and youngest PM this century) First openly homosexual leader (Scottish rather than UK level)
I see no reason why the first non-white leader shouldn't be a Tory either.
First Jewish leader is not true. D'israeli converted to christianity long before he became PM, but of course for the vast majority of UK christians of all types - even today, once born a Jew, always a Jew.
Whilst I was driving through the outskirts of leafy St Albans Mrs JackW did her duty by PB and noted the following :
Con 6 .. Lab 5 .. LibDem 15 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. PC 0 .. SNP 0 .. Respect 0 .. NI 0 .. Speaker 0
PB yellow perilists shouldn't throw their sandals in the air in gay abandon as the dreaded orange diamonds (and candidate portrait posters) usually litter the streets by about 4 to 1.
Poster watch in Leicester: a half a dozen large Keith Vaz Bilboards in big houses in Leafy Evington. Nothing visible for anyone else, or Vaz posters in the terraced backstreets of Highfields or St Matthews.
Verdict: Labour hold Leicester East, on low turnout.
One tory poster in a farmers field in Harborough. Safe Con hold on low turnout.
Whilst I was driving through the outskirts of leafy St Albans Mrs JackW did her duty by PB and noted the following :
Con 6 .. Lab 5 .. LibDem 15 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. PC 0 .. SNP 0 .. Respect 0 .. NI 0 .. Speaker 0
PB yellow perilists shouldn't throw their sandals in the air in gay abandon as the dreaded orange diamonds (and candidate portrait posters) usually litter the streets by about 4 to 1.
For the first time in ages, St. Alban's is no longer a marginal seat.
People are complaining that our PM misspoke a name?
That's the issue for the election?
Not Labour's deficit. Not how we will handle Grexit. Not Russia's resurgence. Not how to improve business and jobs. Not how to integrate the various cultures in this country. Not the decision over the EU. Not anything of any real importance whatsoever.
Great Britain today.
Can't blame anyone but Cameron for pretending to support a football club when he doesn't. His phoniness is a consistent aspect of his public persona. Huskies, windmills, bikes, Morrisons, Guinness, Easyjet and so on. Why he does it is a mystery. It does indicate a touch of distrust for the electorate - he does not believe they will take him as he is.
I think no one doubts that Dave is a phoney. It is why the kippers in particular dislike him. They cannot trust him. Despite nearly 10 years in the spotlight as Tory leader, and five years as PM, he remains an enigma.
It is a bit like Tony Blairs Jackie Milburn moment. I don't think there is real malice in his deception, just an inability to understand what the truth is. As an earlier politician Pontius Pilate remarked "What is truth?"
As an aside; it is possible to change football teams, I was born in Lancs but started going to Leicester City when my lad went football mad ages 8. I no longer care for any other team.
The Tony Blair Jackie Milburn story was made up. He never said it. But I guess the fact people thought he did is just as revealing and backs up what you say: people expect politicians to be phonies. Makes you wonder why the politicians do it.
I'm hardly David Cameron's biggest fan, but I for one don't blame him for not giving a shit about football, and I don't blame him for pretending he does. That's what politicians believe the public care about.
If Lord Ashcroft Question 1 is completely right, and Q2 completely wrong then the Lib Dems are looking at an almost complete wipeout with just Carmichael and Farron left I reckon.
Julian Huppert will hold on in Cambridge. I think there were a couple of SW London seats where the LDs were ahead even without Q2 too.
Carshalton should be safe. Kingston & Surbiton less so. Bermondsey and Sutton & Cheam will fall. So will all the others except Twickenham.
It's not in the least surprising .The man is working his socks off and must have a total information overload.I couldn't care less what team any of them support.I want to hear more details about all the manifestos.What they mean for me and my family.
The media are not doing us any favours by concentrating on trivia.No wonder the public has tuned out and the polls are moribund.
Why the hell did Cameron feel the need to indicate support for a football club in the first place? This just comes over as him lacking authenticity which is bad. So what if he doesn't have a football team that he cares about?
This isn't trivia but about the man.
Absolutely bang on.
The front pages in the tabloids will crucify Cameron tomorrow over this. A car crash.
But at least it may remind folk that he still exists and is actually seeking re-election...
It's not in the least surprising .The man is working his socks off and must have a total information overload.I couldn't care less what team any of them support.I want to hear more details about all the manifestos.What they mean for me and my family.
The media are not doing us any favours by concentrating on trivia.No wonder the public has tuned out and the polls are moribund.
Why the hell did Cameron feel the need to indicate support for a football club in the first place? This just comes over as him lacking authenticity which is bad. So what if he doesn't have a football team that he cares about?
This isn't trivia but about the man.
Sorry to see Burnley bottom. But no point us both going down...
David Cameron's football problems are certainly an indication of a certain crassness, but I do think some are losing perspective. They're coming dangerously close to Ross Perot's view that a man who would cheat on his wife would cheat on his country.
If Lord Ashcroft Question 1 is completely right, and Q2 completely wrong then the Lib Dems are looking at an almost complete wipeout with just Carmichael and Farron left I reckon.
Julian Huppert will hold on in Cambridge. I think there were a couple of SW London seats where the LDs were ahead even without Q2 too.
Of that quartet of celebrities, I think Cameron's cock-up is mildly less serious than Campbell's when he worked for Blair, or Morgan's when he worked for the Mirror.
Mind you, being attacked by those two may well persuade people Cameron's a good egg.
If Lord Ashcroft Question 1 is completely right, and Q2 completely wrong then the Lib Dems are looking at an almost complete wipeout with just Carmichael and Farron left I reckon.
Julian Huppert will hold on in Cambridge. I think there were a couple of SW London seats where the LDs were ahead even without Q2 too.
Carshalton should be safe. Kingston & Surbiton less so. Bermondsey and Sutton & Cheam will fall. So will all the others except Twickenham.
I think Twickenham will fall before Bermondsey. I think there are an increasing number of Conservative voters in the constituency to lend their votes to Hughes. While Twickenham will see Red Liberals return.
Olly.. Miligeek has been a fraud since day one..and it will continue in Downing Street if the country really loses its collective marbles..who gives a flying feck about a football club..lots of my braindead footie friends follow the club that is at the top of the league..to be associated with winners..sad...and of course Blair loved to watch Jacky Milburn playing .. except he never did watch him.
If Lord Ashcroft Question 1 is completely right, and Q2 completely wrong then the Lib Dems are looking at an almost complete wipeout with just Carmichael and Farron left I reckon.
Julian Huppert will hold on in Cambridge. I think there were a couple of SW London seats where the LDs were ahead even without Q2 too.
Huppert gets a 7% swing from Q1 to Q2.
My Labour party member friend in Cambridge thinks Huppert wins.
People are complaining that our PM misspoke a name?
That's the issue for the election?
Not Labour's deficit. Not how we will handle Grexit. Not Russia's resurgence. Not how to improve business and jobs. Not how to integrate the various cultures in this country. Not the decision over the EU. Not anything of any real importance whatsoever.
Great Britain today.
Can't blame anyone but Cameron for pretending to support a football club when he doesn't. His phoniness is a consistent aspect of his public persona. Huskies, windmills, bikes, Morrisons, Guinness, Easyjet and so on. Why he does it is a mystery. It does indicate a touch of distrust for the electorate - he does not believe they will take him as he is.
I think no one doubts that Dave is a phoney. It is why the kippers in particular dislike him. They cannot trust him. Despite nearly 10 years in the spotlight as Tory leader, and five years as PM, he remains an enigma.
It is a bit like Tony Blairs Jackie Milburn moment. I don't think there is real malice in his deception, just an inability to understand what the truth is. As an earlier politician Pontius Pilate remarked "What is truth?"
As an aside; it is possible to change football teams, I was born in Lancs but started going to Leicester City when my lad went football mad ages 8. I no longer care for any other team.
The Tony Blair Jackie Milburn story was made up. He never said it. But I guess the fact people thought he did is just as revealing and backs up what you say: people expect politicians to be phonies. Makes you wonder why the politicians do it.
The quote was made up. He did speak about Newcastle United but in the same interview , he did say it was after the Milburn era.
This is one episode in Blair's life that I will defend him on.
Whilst I was driving through the outskirts of leafy St Albans Mrs JackW did her duty by PB and noted the following :
Con 6 .. Lab 5 .. LibDem 15 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. PC 0 .. SNP 0 .. Respect 0 .. NI 0 .. Speaker 0
PB yellow perilists shouldn't throw their sandals in the air in gay abandon as the dreaded orange diamonds (and candidate portrait posters) usually litter the streets by about 4 to 1.
The most yellow diamonds I ever saw was around Windsor in 2010. The Lib Dem vote tanked.
If Lord Ashcroft Question 1 is completely right, and Q2 completely wrong then the Lib Dems are looking at an almost complete wipeout with just Carmichael and Farron left I reckon.
Julian Huppert will hold on in Cambridge. I think there were a couple of SW London seats where the LDs were ahead even without Q2 too.
Huppert gets a 7% swing from Q1 to Q2.
My Labour party member friend in Cambridge thinks Huppert wins.
I never argue with pessimism :-)
OK but I have serious doubts about any Lib Dem in a University town. A Kingston University [ not comparable ] poll [ scientific ? ] shows support for the LDs dropping from 52% to 5%.
SURBITON and SO.. Blair actually said he watched Milburn score a goal..must have been on the same wavelength as the Incontrovertible Proof about WMD and the 45 minute countdown.
So Cam reckons the first BME PM will be a Tory. ...
It would be true to form.
First Jewish leader (and PM) First unmarried leader (and PM). First female leader (and PM). Oldest leader this century (and PM). Youngest leader this century (and youngest PM this century) First openly homosexual leader (Scottish rather than UK level)
I see no reason why the first non-white leader shouldn't be a Tory either.
First Jewish leader is not true. D'israeli converted to christianity long before he became PM, but of course for the vast majority of UK christians of all types - even today, once born a Jew, always a Jew.
Wasn't Michael Howard the first Jewish leader of a major UK party ?
It's not in the least surprising .The man is working his socks off and must have a total information overload.I couldn't care less what team any of them support.I want to hear more details about all the manifestos.What they mean for me and my family.
The media are not doing us any favours by concentrating on trivia.No wonder the public has tuned out and the polls are moribund.
Why the hell did Cameron feel the need to indicate support for a football club in the first place? This just comes over as him lacking authenticity which is bad. So what if he doesn't have a football team that he cares about?
This isn't trivia but about the man.
Absolutely bang on.
The front pages in the tabloids will crucify Cameron tomorrow over this. A car crash.
But at least it may remind folk that he still exists and is actually seeking re-election...
I doubt it will be covered by the Tory tabloids. The Mirror will have some fun though.
SURBITON and SO.. Blair actually said he watched Milburn score a goal..must have been on the same wavelength as the Incontrovertible Proof about WMD and the 45 minute countdown.
It's not in the least surprising .The man is working his socks off and must have a total information overload.I couldn't care less what team any of them support.I want to hear more details about all the manifestos.What they mean for me and my family.
The media are not doing us any favours by concentrating on trivia.No wonder the public has tuned out and the polls are moribund.
Why the hell did Cameron feel the need to indicate support for a football club in the first place? This just comes over as him lacking authenticity which is bad. So what if he doesn't have a football team that he cares about?
This isn't trivia but about the man.
Absolutely bang on.
The front pages in the tabloids will crucify Cameron tomorrow over this. A car crash.
But at least it may remind folk that he still exists and is actually seeking re-election...
I do agree. I am technically a Gooner (as a child you have to have a team). Now soccer bores me to tears, I would rather watch rugby or cricket, the only team I am really a partisan of is Essex CCC.
But at least I can remember I am supposed to be an Arsenal fan. What's wrong with saying "I hate soccer it's a crock of sh*te"? On the other hand I can't imagine why it is at all relevant. We all know all the party leaders are pseuds, as Francis Rossi said last night to a heckler "I'm an actor" just pretending to project an image.
Comments
To be sure, some people will be going into the polling booths thinking about the local area (about how nice their smiley Lib Dem MP is, and how they managed to get dog mess cleared off the road that one time), but a lot of people are going to be primarily thinking about who they want in government.
What a cock.
I'm stunned, and no wonder Labour are having an absolute field day. It's not just a bit awkward, it proves one of the central charges consistently laid against him, that he's a fraud.
Part of me is glad he'll be gone in weeks. He's proved such a massive disappointment on so many levels, and I was one of his biggest supporters when Howard resigned.
He is just one of us, isn't he ? We also forget which team we support from childhood to death.
A fraud !
Sentimental, brain-rotting garbage.
"When I read Dair on Jo Swindon, the level of vitriol is such that I must admit I'd vote tactically for her."
Most of the Nats make unpleasant reading
But what I can't accept is that at that moment anyone would randomly spout out another name completely. Why would you? Just picking another team out at random makes no sense whatsoever, even with brain freeze.
No idea what this means for Cameron or what sort of person he is but it does seem all rather weird.
Mr. Tyndall, (and many others), there are such things as action slips [akin to Freudian slips] where we just get things wrong. Examples would be putting your toothbrush in the toilet rather than the mug, or the time I accidentally said "Yes" when asked if I wanted mushy peas.
Just finished Sallust's works. Covers the Catiline conspiracy, the Jugurthine War and refers to the Mithridatic Wars, although due to the fragmentary nature of the Histories it neglects the moment Pompey forgot which football team he supported, and dwells instead on the minor matters to which I have referred.
The Lib Dem was only about 500 votes behind here in 2010, but it's being viewed (rightly) as a completely foregone conclusion.
Torbay, Brecon and Radnorshire, and Bath are the three with the highest enough degree of correlation specifically to make it decent value
Football is the opium of the people ?
People are complaining that our PM misspoke a name?
That's the issue for the election?
Not Labour's deficit. Not how we will handle Grexit. Not Russia's resurgence. Not how to improve business and jobs. Not how to integrate the various cultures in this country. Not the decision over the EU. Not anything of any real importance whatsoever.
Great Britain today.
It will return to the fold with ease on May 7th - Labour majority of 6,000 I reckon.
Pendle is full of Burnley supporters though, and to a lesser extent Rossendale, Calder Valley and Keighley (the latter where Campbell comes from)
Anyway, best not to mention Burnley given we've just been all but mathematically relegated today...
Personally, I think the biggest determinant of LibDem seats is going to be their aggregate vote tally:
7% - 7 seats
8% - 11
9% - 16
10% - 19
11% - 29
12% - 34
4% difference in vote share makes a difference of 22 seats.
Not the same in Bradford East.
Immigration mug anyone?
"the snp are racist"
Must be DESPERATE not to get into power...
The SNP are anti English shock.
Whilst I was driving through the outskirts of leafy St Albans Mrs JackW did her duty by PB and noted the following :
Con 6 .. Lab 5 .. LibDem 15 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. PC 0 .. SNP 0 .. Respect 0 .. NI 0 .. Speaker 0
PB yellow perilists shouldn't throw their sandals in the air in gay abandon as the dreaded orange diamonds (and candidate portrait posters) usually litter the streets by about 4 to 1.
Not at all. It makes him look like what he is, a prat !
Con 0 .. Lab 0 .. LibDem 0 .. Green 0 .. UKIP 0 .. PC 0 .. SNP 0 .. Respect 0 .. NI 0 .. Speaker 0
Quite right too. Same in Wheathampstead but nr Welwyn I nearly totalled my car against a Tory car with speakers on the roof (wasn't the party chairman!)
In Royal Bercow, I've seen 2 Bercow, 0 the field.
Sorry OGH... but this is guaranteed to make most PB Tories feel a nice warm glow:
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·6 mins6 minutes ago
Wish I could be like phoney @David_Cameron - I could decide to support @OfficialFOXES and wouldn't feel as crap as I do #utc
Aston Villa becoming West Ham is not a slip of the tongue. It's someone who doesn't know the first thing about football thinking "that team i'm supposed to support, play in claret and blue, what are they called - West Ham, yes that's them". Or a speechwriter monumentally f---d up.
But either way, it's confirmed him as a fraud.
I want him to lose now. He's a cretin and a liability. Let's have Miliband as comedy PM for a bit, and get Boris in pronto for when Miliband's administration collapses.
It is a bit like Tony Blairs Jackie Milburn moment. I don't think there is real malice in his deception, just an inability to understand what the truth is. As an earlier politician Pontius Pilate remarked "What is truth?"
As an aside; it is possible to change football teams, I was born in Lancs but started going to Leicester City when my lad went football mad ages 8. I no longer care for any other team.
The media are not doing us any favours by concentrating on trivia.No wonder the public has tuned out and the polls are moribund.
Perhaps Surbiton can reveal to the rest of us what a dockside hooker is like?
FInished
Traitors
Left wing
racist
not racist
bad
a joke
racist
liars
Greens are
idiots
good for you
dangerous
This isn't trivia but about the man.
The Lib Dem policies are right wing on economic and business issues whilst left wing on welfatre issues.
Lib Dems are more accurately descrobed as being liberal. The clue is in the name.
Verdict: Labour hold Leicester East, on low turnout.
One tory poster in a farmers field in Harborough. Safe Con hold on low turnout.
'This isn't trivia but about the man.'
Your having a laugh?
biased
left wing
killing democracy
propaganda
anti-semitic
The front pages in the tabloids will crucify Cameron tomorrow over this. A car crash.
But at least it may remind folk that he still exists and is actually seeking re-election...
Bring on the Chelsea!
ill
a banker
married
Love the last one :-) He clearly has a lot of admirers out there
a horsefly
Says it all really
Mind you, being attacked by those two may well persuade people Cameron's a good egg.
I never argue with pessimism :-)
This is one episode in Blair's life that I will defend him on.
For anyone that would like to play, the very small game for the presidential election in Poland is available here:
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/poland15/
Entries close Wednesday 6th May and the UK game will be out next.
Cheers,
DC
Tory Reform Group retweeted
Anna Soubry@Anna_Soubry·3 hrs3 hours ago
Welcome back @Conservatives thank u #turningBroxtoweblue @TeamBroxtowe15
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/pandora/the-shocking-truth-blair-did-not-lie-about-jackie-milburn-6146880.html
But at least I can remember I am supposed to be an Arsenal fan. What's wrong with saying "I hate soccer it's a crock of sh*te"?
On the other hand I can't imagine why it is at all relevant. We all know all the party leaders are pseuds, as Francis Rossi said last night to a heckler "I'm an actor" just pretending to project an image.