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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herson asks: Where’s Cleggy?

Two Kings and a Joker is the hand the media traditionally aims to deal the public in their coverage of general elections. They don’t always manage to do so as it depends on the real-life characters available but the battle for No 10 is usually best told as a contest between two big parties with a wild-card element thrown in.

Read the full story here

EPG

It's not just a discretionary narrative; it's OFCOM. They have to be treated near-equally with Ukip, so the time they used to have has got reallocated to the big two parties, with tiny coverage of LD and Ukip.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Herdson, good article, especially the point on the new prince/princess [as cunningly mentioned by me on the last thread].

murali_s

Who cares?

After May 8th, we'll all be saying "were you up for Cleggie?"

AndyJS

Before the last election I recall we had a thread on the fact that it would be the "small towns" where the election was decided. Maybe we could have another one this time since it's the same constituencies that will probably prove to be decisive again.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. S, perhaps. Perhaps we'll be asking if "you were up for Balls".

MarqueeMark

I have rather more faith in the electorate to put aside the coverage of the Spare to the Heir when it comes to deciding which Party is going to feck them over most in the coming months (maybe years).

Although maybe some SNP knuckle-dragger can say something sufficiently toxic about Republicanism so that the two can get conflated....

Financier

FPT

Pulpstar said: Election forecast suggests Montgomeryshire is 18% chance of going yellow.

Watford is not on the start list any more...

The Cons sitting MP is very popular and well regarded by most of his constituents. The antics of Lembit Opik are not forgotten by the very conservative electorate, of ditching a well-loved Welsh lady for a Cheeky Girl.

The LD candidate is campaigning on the health issue which of course is a devolved matter and a matter which she is unable to affect.

murali_s

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. S, perhaps. Perhaps we'll be asking if "you were up for Balls".

Mr Dancer - maybe but hope not!

PS - Not a great fan of Mr Balls...

Pulpstar

AndyJS said:

Before the last election I recall we had a thread on the fact that it would be the "small towns" where the election was decided. Maybe we could have another one this time since it's the same constituencies that will probably prove to be decisive again.

Ipswich, Nuneaton, Pudsey have to be a starter for ten.

David_Evershed

murali_s said:

Who cares?

After May 8th, we'll all be saying "were you up for Cleggie?"

Anyone who cares about UK financial stability cares.

By being in coalition with the Conservatives the Lib Dems have saved the country from the same fete as Greece. People underestimate the trouble this country was in with its debt - and still is to a large extent.

The coalition has enabled the Uk to be able to continue to borrow to fund its growing debts and at a low interest rate. At the same time it has been able to run a substantial deficit to allow the country to recover from recession and reduce unemployment.

Vote Lib Dem again if you want stability.

Pulpstar

Reading the smoke signals Clegg would massively prefer a Conservative Gov't I think.

GIN1138

Villagate is one of those silly election stories that come and go but I think it does highlight something which I'm increasingly aware of, which is that as the election campaign goes on, David Cameron seem's to be increasingly fading away into irrelevance...

It's hard to put your finger on but it's like the tide is slowly going out on him or maybe submerging him...

paulbarker

"Dont speak too soon for the wheels still in spin" The atmosphere among Tory/Labour supporters still seems strangely febrile. Labour in particular have swung between despair & a "Sheffield Rally" type of overconfidence, they are on a high now but a couple of bad polls & a "gaffe" & they could swing back.
A lot can happen in 12 days.

GIN1138

As far as Clegg goes, I actually think he's had a reasonable campaign given the position the Lib-Dems are in.

I was expecting the whole thing to have fallen apart into acrimony and recrimination by now... Though they may be waiting until 10pm on election night of course...

Booting Lord Oakeshott out when they did has probably done the Lib-Dem's no end of good.

MarqueeMark

Pulpstar said:

Reading the smoke signals Clegg would massively prefer a Conservative Gov't I think.

Of course, if he had been actively promoting this proposal for the past five years, whilst deriding Labour as the financially irresponsible Left, things might have been a bit different. His yeah-but-no-but-yeah-but.... attitude to being in Government has left him and his party looking like prats.

murali_s

paulbarker said:

"Dont speak too soon for the wheels still in spin" The atmosphere among Tory/Labour supporters still seems strangely febrile. Labour in particular have swung between despair & a "Sheffield Rally" type of overconfidence, they are on a high now but a couple of bad polls & a "gaffe" & they could swing back.
A lot can happen in 12 days.

Agreed. Both sides need to calm down. This election is close and can still swing either way...

12 days is an eternity - though postal votes are being sent in as we speak...

Pulpstar

Clegg is going to scrape home, he's going to be the worst value winner on the night !

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Gin, even if he wins, he won't be PM for the whole term. He's a PM with a sell by date.

Pulpstar

Labour asking me for money, Conservatives promising motherhood and apple pie in the inbox today.

Flightpath1

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

Reading the smoke signals Clegg would massively prefer a Conservative Gov't I think.

Of course, if he had been actively promoting this proposal for the past five years, whilst deriding Labour as the financially irresponsible Left, things might have been a bit different. His yeah-but-no-but-yeah-but.... attitude to being in Government has left him and his party looking like prats.

Correct

John_N

A more pertinent effect will be the indirect one on the Con/Lab battles. With no means of attracting them back, the dissipation of the 2010 Lib Dem vote is now hard-wired into the voting patterns in those constituencies. In effect, Sturgeon might be causing Labour havoc north of the border but she’s done them a favour south of it.

I disagree with this. The fact that the SNP has replaced LD as the Joker is good for the Tories south of the border. It's been obvious since 2010 that the LD vote would collapse in 2015. Many people who switched to LD in 2010 don't like seeing the smarmy faces from this minor party (i.e. not CON or LAB, and without the outsider populism of UKIP, even) pontificate at them from positions in the cabinet. This demographic may be weighted towards those who voted LAB in elections before 2010, but that doesn't mean their default position is to switch back to LAB.

Why not? For the simple reason that it's LAB that's now associated in people's minds with hung parliaments and coalitions and rainbows, and in particular, with the idea of a LAB-SNP coalition. Mad, yes, but that's how it is for many people.

And that will push many of them to vote CON.

Sure, this isn't logical, because we've just had 5 years of a CON-LD coalition. But voting isn't logical. A CON-LD coalition is in my opinion what we're likely to have for another 5 years too. Meanwhile pundits talk about all sorts of wacky scenarios.

CON are playing the 'vote for us if you don't want a hung parliament' card.

Or in other words, 'Miliband can only be PM if he agrees to let the Jocks get him in a 5-year-long half-Nelson, so vote CON for stability'.

And that propaganda line is very likely to work.

GIN1138

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Gin, even if he wins, he won't be PM for the whole term. He's a PM with a sell by date.

I think it's may have been better for Cameron and the Tories if he'd stood down as PM at the end of the coalition.

The Tories could have elected a new leader at some point earlier in the year who would now have taken over as the full-time leader.

LoyalConservative99

Clegg irritates me especially his renaging on boundary changes,but he and his party contributed to a period of stability with some serious reforms. His party doesn't deserve to get decimated and I hope he keeps his seat.

re Villa v West Ham,they both wear claret and blue .Seriously though DC has given about 30 speeches in the past few weeks and answered inane questions on many subjects?He's kept calm and controlled throughout ,no mean feat....

marktheowl

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

Reading the smoke signals Clegg would massively prefer a Conservative Gov't I think.

Of course, if he had been actively promoting this proposal for the past five years, whilst deriding Labour as the financially irresponsible Left, things might have been a bit different. His yeah-but-no-but-yeah-but.... attitude to being in Government has left him and his party looking like prats.

Smoke signals? Of course he would, for umpteen reasons, personal, reasonable, idiotic and philosophical.

Flightpath1

1-1 Spurs draw level

Pulpstar

Have Labour ruled out abstaining on a Conservative Queen Speech yet ?

I'm being utterly and totally serious when I say this too.

Remaining SLABers, Danczuk and the Barrow MP top of my list to effectively call for a Tory Gov't after the election if the result goes the way I think it will.

John_N

GIN1138 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Gin, even if he wins, he won't be PM for the whole term. He's a PM with a sell by date.

I think it's may have been better for Cameron and the Tories if he'd stood down as PM at the end of the coalition.

This is a very unpresidential election, as British GEs go.

Speedy

Returning a little to the previous thread, the LordA latest constituency polls is still offering the same picture as his previous 20 E&W constituency polls of Tory held seats, outside of the Tory VS UKIP seats the swing to Labour is still on average the 3% swing he recorded on average in the previous ones.

So Labour is still on course for 50 seat gains, with a 3% swing in E&W ex-London Tory seats and a 7% swing in London Tory seats.

Apart from that it was a good setting of polls for UKIP in that contrary to the ComRes UKIP poll they still maintain their strength, they are ahead in Thurrock and still have Rochester within sights with about the same margins as in the previous constituency polls.

SimonStClare

An excellent thread Mr Herdson – well worth the wait due to the slovenly Lordship.

Minor niggle - second paragraph, surely tis ‘whom’, not who?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 99, if the Lib Dems get decimated they'll be hugely relieved

Mr. Gin, maybe. I'm not so sure.

MarqueeMark

Pulpstar said:

Labour asking me for money, Conservatives promising motherhood and apple pie in the inbox today.

TSE was threatening fatherhood earlier...

SMukesh

GIN1138 said:

Villagate is one of those silly election stories that come and go but I think it does highlight something which I'm increasingly aware of, which is that as the election campaign goes on, David Cameron seem's to be increasingly fading away into irrelevance...

It's hard to put your finger on but it's like the tide is slowly going out on him or maybe submerging him...

If Villa gate carries on,we`ll have another dead cat thrown in by Lynton Crosby.

I feel for the feline population of this country.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. StClare, you're correct.

isam

Flightpath1 said:

1-1 Spurs draw level

GET IN THERE!!!!

Edit: oops I forgot, I support the Arsenal

Indigo

Who knew that Merkel was a Kipper activist.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3054810/Germany-leader-Angela-Merkel-calls-UK-immigrants-wake-refugee-crisis-Mediterranean.html

Angela Merkel threw down the gauntlet to David Cameron last night and said large countries should be prepared to accept more asylum seekers.

In other news, EU finance minsters decide abusing the Greeks is the way to solve their financial crisis, GrExit before the election ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-3054479/EU-chiefs-brand-Greek-finance-minister-time-waster-gambler-amateur.html

Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis was yesterday branded ‘a time-waster, a gambler and an amateur’ during furious exchanges with his European counterparts.

In private talks that were described as a ‘hammering’ for Greece in the Latvian capital of Riga, eurozone finance ministers hurled abuse at Varoufakis, pictured, amid warnings that a Greek exit from the single currency is now a ‘serious’ option.

marktheowl

LoyalConservative99 said:

Clegg irritates me especially his renaging on boundary changes,but he and his party contributed to a period of stability with some serious reforms. His party doesn't deserve to get decimated and I hope he keeps his seat.

re Villa v West Ham,they both wear claret and blue .Seriously though DC has given about 30 speeches in the past few weeks and answered inane questions on many subjects?He's kept calm and controlled throughout ,no mean feat....

Not that it's overly important, although it does highlight a long term sense that Cameron is an utter charlatan, but you really don't get football do you? Liverpool and Man Utd both play in red, not two teams to mix up. You don't 'forget' or have a 'brain fade' about who you support.

As with 'Flag gate' the daft thing about this is that people are getting paid to run his campaign and could've defused it fairly easily. He could've said afterwards "I'm a Villa fan myself, but thought the people I was speaking to should support their local team". He didn't and looks like a complete cretin as a result.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Indigo, it could happen, but they've said that stuff before and there's always been a fudge to keep the Greeks in. I'll believe it when I see it.

If we had a Greek exit and the royal baby on the same day, I wonder what the media would do.

John_N

Coalitions can be backed at Betfair at the following prices:

CON/LD 2.7
LAB/LD 5.1
LAB/SNP/LD 8
LAB/SNP 8.4
CON/LD/DUP 9.6
CON/UKIP 17
CON/LAB 18
CON/UKIP/DUP 18.5
CON/SNP 21
CON/LD/UKIP 23
LAB/LD/GRN 25

Not much liquidity, though.

Note what the favourite is and how little media chitchat it's getting. Note that the SNP doesn't figure in either the favourite or the second favourite.

Dair

John_N said:

GIN1138 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Gin, even if he wins, he won't be PM for the whole term. He's a PM with a sell by date.

I think it's may have been better for Cameron and the Tories if he'd stood down as PM at the end of the coalition.

This is a very unpresidential election, as British GEs go.

Not really, it's all about President Nicola and who is going to be her proxy in Downing Street.

MarqueeMark

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 99, if the Lib Dems get decimated they'll be hugely relieved

Mr. Gin, maybe. I'm not so sure.

Indeed, Mr. Dancer. They'd probably even be happy to round it up to 6 losses....

Tissue_Price

John_N said:

Coalitions can be backed at Betfair at the following prices:

CON/LD 2.7
LAB/LD 5.1
LAB/SNP/LD 8
LAB/SNP 8.4
CON/LD/DUP 9.6
CON/UKIP 17
CON/LAB 18
CON/UKIP/DUP 18.5
CON/SNP 21
CON/LD/UKIP 23
LAB/LD/GRN 25

Not much liquidity, though.

Note what the favourite is and how little media chitchat it's getting. Note that the SNP doesn't figure in either the favourite or the second favourite.

That's a frankly stupid market that only settles if there is a coalition of some sort.

FrancisUrquhart

Pulpstar said:

Reading the smoke signals Clegg would massively prefer a Conservative Gov't I think.

I don't think it is a huge secret that Clegg and Alexander get on perfectly well with Cameron and Osborne. And doesn't Clegg also share the grace and favour residence with Hague. There really hasn't been any major fallings out between the 4, beyond boundary changes. All the minor spats has just playing to the home crowd.

If there really was massive amount of hatred, after the first 2-3 years they would have found a way to pull the plug or spent the past 2 years constantly blocking every single policy move. In a way, this has been the most united the most senior members of a government have been for 20+ years.

Dair

Speedy said:

Returning a little to the previous thread, the LordA latest constituency polls is still offering the same picture as his previous 20 E&W constituency polls of Tory held seats, outside of the Tory VS UKIP seats the swing to Labour is still on average the 3% swing he recorded on average in the previous ones.

So Labour is still on course for 50 seat gains, with a 3% swing in E&W ex-London Tory seats and a 7% swing in London Tory seats.

Apart from that it was a good setting of polls for UKIP in that contrary to the ComRes UKIP poll they still maintain their strength, they are ahead in Thurrock and still have Rochester within sights with about the same margins as in the previous constituency polls.

The only problem with that analysis is that the national polls are showing a swing of 4% to 4.5% despite what's happening in Scotland. That indicates something is moving more Labour somewhere that isn't being polled enough. Perhaps its in Lab/Lib marginals, perhaps its strengthening in South Wales but there is something there.

3% would be perfect for an SNP led government, 4.5% might get Miliband to the place where he has other options.

Indigo

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indigo, it could happen, but they've said that stuff before and there's always been a fudge to keep the Greeks in. I'll believe it when I see it.

If we had a Greek exit and the royal baby on the same day, I wonder what the media would do.

Pro-EU papers would cover the baby on the front page, Anti-EU papers would cover GrExit on the front page, the Sunday Sport would cover a Greek baby seen on the moon on theirs.

Tissue_Price

LDs 11-20 seat band still widely available at 4/1. This has to be value, given the 23-25 spread, and the Ashcroft polling.

isam

David Cameron football fan http://t.co/1LwPwrvbm7

Indigo

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Reading the smoke signals Clegg would massively prefer a Conservative Gov't I think.

I don't think it is a huge secret that Clegg and Alexander get on perfectly well with Cameron and Osborne. And doesn't Clegg also share the grace and favour residence with Hague. There really hasn't been any major fallings out between the 4, beyond boundary changes. All the minor spats has just playing to the home crowd.

If there really was massive amount of hatred, after the first 2-3 years they would have found a way to pull the plug or spent the past 2 years constantly blocking every single policy move. In a way, this has been the most united the most senior members of a government have been for 20+ years.

Its not because Clegg is a Tory though, its because Cameron is a Liberal.

OblitusSumMe

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Reading the smoke signals Clegg would massively prefer a Conservative Gov't I think.

I don't think it is a huge secret that Clegg and Alexander get on perfectly well with Cameron and Osborne. And doesn't Clegg also share the grace and favour residence with Hague. There really hasn't been any major fallings out between the 4, beyond boundary changes. All the minor spats has just playing to the home crowd.

If there really was massive amount of hatred, after the first 2-3 years they would have found a way to pull the plug or spent the past 2 years constantly blocking every single policy move. In a way, this has been the most united the most senior members of a government have been for 20+ years.

That partly has to be because Clegg is not after Cameron's job in the way that Brown was after Blair's. He is already leader of his party. Perhaps an example of how coalitions can be more stable than single party governments.

Verulamius

Royal birth on Thursday to clash with leaders QT? That will keep Clegg out of the news even more.

Clegg's hung parliament statement should help LD's in their battle against SNP.

MikeK

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11558840/How-Ukip-is-winning-the-Google-election.html

More people are searching online for UKIP in the run-up to the election than any of the three main parties.
In the fight for search clicks, the party is dwarfing others online, driving more than four times the amount of traffic to websites than any of the other parties.

This why I think that the polls are mostly wrong and David Herdson is headless in this.

Speedy

Dair said:

Speedy said:

Returning a little to the previous thread, the LordA latest constituency polls is still offering the same picture as his previous 20 E&W constituency polls of Tory held seats, outside of the Tory VS UKIP seats the swing to Labour is still on average the 3% swing he recorded on average in the previous ones.

So Labour is still on course for 50 seat gains, with a 3% swing in E&W ex-London Tory seats and a 7% swing in London Tory seats.

Apart from that it was a good setting of polls for UKIP in that contrary to the ComRes UKIP poll they still maintain their strength, they are ahead in Thurrock and still have Rochester within sights with about the same margins as in the previous constituency polls.

The only problem with that analysis is that the national polls are showing a swing of 4% to 4.5% despite what's happening in Scotland. That indicates something is moving more Labour somewhere that isn't being polled enough. Perhaps its in Lab/Lib marginals, perhaps its strengthening in South Wales but there is something there.

3% would be perfect for an SNP led government, 4.5% might get Miliband to the place where he has other options.

But what really matters in terms of seats is the Tory-Labour swing in Tory seats, and that is where I'm focusing on, since not all Tory marginals and semi-marginals have been polled.

The LD seats have almost all been polled and the picture there is very clear with 10-11 LAB gains, 10 Tory gains and perhaps 10 SNP gains.

Danny565

Tissue_Price said:

LDs 11-20 seat band still widely available at 4/1. This has to be value, given the 23-25 spread, and the Ashcroft polling.

Yes, with how strongly the Tories are performing in the South West, I'm finding it very hard to see how the Lib Dems could get above 20 seats.

John_N

Dair said:

3% would be perfect for an SNP led government, 4.5% might get Miliband to the place where he has other options.

LOL at "SNP led government"! If LAB+SNP would be a majority and the SNP try to call the shots (as they so obviously would), I really hope Miliband has the nerve to tell them to eff off. He would soar in my esteem.

FrancisUrquhart

Indigo said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Reading the smoke signals Clegg would massively prefer a Conservative Gov't I think.

I don't think it is a huge secret that Clegg and Alexander get on perfectly well with Cameron and Osborne. And doesn't Clegg also share the grace and favour residence with Hague. There really hasn't been any major fallings out between the 4, beyond boundary changes. All the minor spats has just playing to the home crowd.

If there really was massive amount of hatred, after the first 2-3 years they would have found a way to pull the plug or spent the past 2 years constantly blocking every single policy move. In a way, this has been the most united the most senior members of a government have been for 20+ years.

Its not because Clegg is a Tory though, its because Cameron is a Liberal.

Not sure you can describe Osborne and Hague as Liberals....and the old park ranger and Steve Webb have managed to work with Osborne with minimal fuss. Only Uncle Vince has been unable to put this Tory hating aside and as a result spent 5 years achieving absolutely nothing.

anotherDave

Indigo said:

Who knew that Merkel was a Kipper activist.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3054810/Germany-leader-Angela-Merkel-calls-UK-immigrants-wake-refugee-crisis-Mediterranean.html

Angela Merkel threw down the gauntlet to David Cameron last night and said large countries should be prepared to accept more asylum seekers.

In other news, EU finance minsters decide abusing the Greeks is the way to solve their financial crisis, GrExit before the election ?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-3054479/EU-chiefs-brand-Greek-finance-minister-time-waster-gambler-amateur.html

Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis was yesterday branded ‘a time-waster, a gambler and an amateur’ during furious exchanges with his European counterparts.

In private talks that were described as a ‘hammering’ for Greece in the Latvian capital of Riga, eurozone finance ministers hurled abuse at Varoufakis, pictured, amid warnings that a Greek exit from the single currency is now a ‘serious’ option.

Harmonising EU member states refugee policy is one of the declared aims of the EU Commission.

"Ensuring that all EU countries apply asylum rules in the same manner, by fully implementing the common European asylum system (CEAS)"

http://ec.europa.eu/priorities/migration/index_en.htm

I believe the Home and Justice Affairs opt-in that passed last year means this policy is now set at the EU level. The UK does not have any veto, and will have to accept what is passed.

SandyRentool

So Cam reckons the first BME PM will be a Tory. Only if Priti wins in 2020.

Tissue_Price

SandyRentool said:

So Cam reckons the first BME PM will be a Tory. Only if Priti wins in 2020.

Sajid Javid?

FrancisUrquhart

SandyRentool said:

So Cam reckons the first BME PM will be a Tory. Only if Priti wins in 2020.

What about Sajid Javid?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Dave, ah, just another example of anti-democratic indefensible tosh from the EU.

It's fascinating. It's akin to the latter days of the Roman Empire, without any of the founding virtues and saddled instead with a plethora of vices. They've bypassed the Camilluses and Cunctators and Aurelians and moved directly to meddlesome eunuchs accountable to no-one.

Edited extra bit: considered axing that comparison, as it's very unfair to the Romans (West and East) but decided to leave it up.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Rentool, Mr. G tipped Patel as next leader at 50/1.

It's her or Justine Greening.

MikeK

Mark Tyrrell UKIP retweeted
Dino Fancellu ‏@DinoFancellu 16m16 minutes ago
A Lifelong Labour Voter Speaks http://guyfawk.es/1HZe7wf via @guidofawkes

A shy kipper speaks!

SandyRentool

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rentool, Mr. G tipped Patel as next leader at 50/1.

It's her or Justine Greening.

Mr G? I've been banging on about nothing else for 5 years!

OblitusSumMe

MikeK said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11558840/How-Ukip-is-winning-the-Google-election.html

More people are searching online for UKIP in the run-up to the election than any of the three main parties.
In the fight for search clicks, the party is dwarfing others online, driving more than four times the amount of traffic to websites than any of the other parties.

This why I think that the polls are mostly wrong and David Herdson is headless in this.

The article doesn't say how many of these searches were of the form "Tactical voting to stop UKIP" or "How to stop UKIP" or "Hilarious memes making fun of UKIP".

This makes it hard to use the aggregate search numbers as a proxy for public opinion.

Indigo

FrancisUrquhart said:

Indigo said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pulpstar said:

Reading the smoke signals Clegg would massively prefer a Conservative Gov't I think.

I don't think it is a huge secret that Clegg and Alexander get on perfectly well with Cameron and Osborne. And doesn't Clegg also share the grace and favour residence with Hague. There really hasn't been any major fallings out between the 4, beyond boundary changes. All the minor spats has just playing to the home crowd.

If there really was massive amount of hatred, after the first 2-3 years they would have found a way to pull the plug or spent the past 2 years constantly blocking every single policy move. In a way, this has been the most united the most senior members of a government have been for 20+ years.

Its not because Clegg is a Tory though, its because Cameron is a Liberal.

Not sure you can describe Osborne and Hague as Liberals....and the old park ranger and Steve Webb have managed to work with Osborne with minimal fuss. Only Uncle Vince has been unable to put this Tory hating aside and as a result spent 5 years achieving absolutely nothing.

Hague didn't used to be a Liberal, these days I am not so sure, he has certainly gone native with the EU compared to his old harder line position. Economically I am not sure there is much between Osborne and a Orange Book lib dem, I can't help thinking that most of the fuss about austerity was for consumption by the SDP end of the party. Given where we are, and especially where we were post Brown there aren't that many choices, unless you are a deficit denier like half the Labour Party and the nats.

SMukesh

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rentool, Mr. G tipped Patel as next leader at 50/1.

It's her or Justine Greening.

Mr G? I've been banging on about nothing else for 5 years!

Priti Patel won`t be PM of this country.

calum

Just had a leaflet in from Stephen Kerr, the Tory candidate for Stirling making a very direct plea for tactical votes to stop the SNP. Unfortunately other Stirling Tories are already indicating they will be voting tactically for SLAB;

https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f

These guys need to get their act together, Chris seems to think that David Cameron is on-side with him voting for SLAB !!

Update:

As I hadn't heard anything from the LibDem candidate I thought I do a bit of research. It turns out according to Elizabeth Wilson:

"Supporters of all parties are switching to back Lib Dem Elisabeth Wilson this time - the only candidate able to deliver more powers for Scotland and protect local services."

MikeK

Richard Rogers retweeted
UKIP Walsall ‏@ukipwalsall 8m8 minutes ago
Tonnes of support for #UKIP in #Brownhills this morning! So much so the small group of Tories out canvassing decided to pack up and go home!

Indigo

SMukesh said:

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rentool, Mr. G tipped Patel as next leader at 50/1.

It's her or Justine Greening.

Mr G? I've been banging on about nothing else for 5 years!

Priti Patel won`t be PM of this country.

The same was said about Fatcha.

kle4

the Lib Dems still have five other cabinet ministers: when was the last time you saw or heard from any one of them?

True, although the other Cabinet and shadow Cabinet members have been very low key too

calum said:

"Supporters of all parties are switching to back Lib Dem Elisabeth Wilson this time ."

Reminds me of those 'thousands of people are turning back to British Gas' adverts.

Pulpstar

calum said:

Just had a leaflet in from Stephen Kerr, the Tory candidate for Stirling making a very direct plea for tactical votes to stop the SNP. Unfortunately other Stirling Tories are already indicating they will be voting tactically for SLAB;

https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f

These guys need to get their act together, Chris seems to think that David Cameron is on-side with him voting for SLAB !!

Update:

As I hadn't heard anything from the LibDem candidate I thought I do a bit of research. It turns out according to Elizabeth Wilson:

"Supporters of all parties are switching to back Lib Dem Elisabeth Wilson this time - the only candidate able to deliver more powers for Scotland and protect local services."

We've seen Labour on the slide all over Scotland whereas the Conservative vote seems to have held up. I'd suggest with it slipping back in the SNP-Lab battlegrounds, surely Stirling is the last place you'd vote Labour "tactically"

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Rentool, ah, but did you tip her?

Apologies, but that did largely pass me by.

MikeK

OblitusSumMe said:

MikeK said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11558840/How-Ukip-is-winning-the-Google-election.html

More people are searching online for UKIP in the run-up to the election than any of the three main parties.
In the fight for search clicks, the party is dwarfing others online, driving more than four times the amount of traffic to websites than any of the other parties.

This why I think that the polls are mostly wrong and David Herdson is headless in this.

The article doesn't say how many of these searches were of the form "Tactical voting to stop UKIP" or "How to stop UKIP" or "Hilarious memes making fun of UKIP".

This makes it hard to use the aggregate search numbers as a proxy for public opinion.

No, but it means that UKIP has caught the interest of tens of thousands more internet users than the nearest next party. And nobody needs the internet to learn how to stop UKIP, but they do if they are interested in voting for UKIP.

calum

I was surprised to discover when researching my local Lib Dem candidate for Stirling that Willie Rennie is one of my regional list MSPs. Fair to say as I'm a political geek and was unaware of this, it makes me wonder what % of the voting population could name their list MSPs. Further, if very few people know of their existence - what do these guys actually do all day?

weejonnie

Indigo said:

SMukesh said:

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rentool, Mr. G tipped Patel as next leader at 50/1.

It's her or Justine Greening.

Mr G? I've been banging on about nothing else for 5 years!

Priti Patel won`t be PM of this country.

The same was said about Fatcha.

Fatcha said it about Fatcha

anotherDave

OblitusSumMe said:

MikeK said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11558840/How-Ukip-is-winning-the-Google-election.html

More people are searching online for UKIP in the run-up to the election than any of the three main parties.
In the fight for search clicks, the party is dwarfing others online, driving more than four times the amount of traffic to websites than any of the other parties.

This why I think that the polls are mostly wrong and David Herdson is headless in this.

The article doesn't say how many of these searches were of the form "Tactical voting to stop UKIP" or "How to stop UKIP" or "Hilarious memes making fun of UKIP".

This makes it hard to use the aggregate search numbers as a proxy for public opinion.

The autocomplete suggestions Google offers me are: "UKIP manifesto, UKIP news, UKIP the first 100 days"

Roger

MikeK

"A Lifelong (ex) Labour Voter Speaks"

How fascinating to hear the views of an ex Labour voter. I wonder what his views on the NHS and the economy are or perhaps you or Guido could try to find out what car he recommends.

anotherDave

Pulpstar said:

calum said:

Just had a leaflet in from Stephen Kerr, the Tory candidate for Stirling making a very direct plea for tactical votes to stop the SNP. Unfortunately other Stirling Tories are already indicating they will be voting tactically for SLAB;

https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f

These guys need to get their act together, Chris seems to think that David Cameron is on-side with him voting for SLAB !!

Update:

As I hadn't heard anything from the LibDem candidate I thought I do a bit of research. It turns out according to Elizabeth Wilson:

"Supporters of all parties are switching to back Lib Dem Elisabeth Wilson this time - the only candidate able to deliver more powers for Scotland and protect local services."

We've seen Labour on the slide all over Scotland whereas the Conservative vote seems to have held up. I'd suggest with it slipping back in the SNP-Lab battlegrounds, surely Stirling is the last place you'd vote Labour "tactically"

The worry for the Scottish Conservatives must surely be that their vote has not increased. The LDs support has vanished, but it all seems to have gone to the SNP/Greens rather than the Conservatives.

saddened

MikeK said:

OblitusSumMe said:

MikeK said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11558840/How-Ukip-is-winning-the-Google-election.html

More people are searching online for UKIP in the run-up to the election than any of the three main parties.
In the fight for search clicks, the party is dwarfing others online, driving more than four times the amount of traffic to websites than any of the other parties.

This why I think that the polls are mostly wrong and David Herdson is headless in this.

The article doesn't say how many of these searches were of the form "Tactical voting to stop UKIP" or "How to stop UKIP" or "Hilarious memes making fun of UKIP".

This makes it hard to use the aggregate search numbers as a proxy for public opinion.

No, but it means that UKIP has caught the interest of tens of thousands more internet users than the nearest next party.

A lot of UKIP searches are of the "that can't be true nobody is that stupid, I'd better check" variety. I mean some of their supporters believe they are going to get more than 30 seats, that is laugh out loud territory.

MikeK

Roger said:

MikeK

"A Lifelong (ex) Labour Voter Speaks"

How fascinating to hear the views of an ex Labour voter. I wonder what his views on the NHS and the economy are or perhaps you or Guido could try to find out what car he recommends.

Don't weep Roger; you'll make me cry in sympathy next.

kle4

anotherDave said:

Pulpstar said:

calum said:

Just had a leaflet in from Stephen Kerr, the Tory candidate for Stirling making a very direct plea for tactical votes to stop the SNP. Unfortunately other Stirling Tories are already indicating they will be voting tactically for SLAB;

https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f

These guys need to get their act together, Chris seems to think that David Cameron is on-side with him voting for SLAB !!

Update:

As I hadn't heard anything from the LibDem candidate I thought I do a bit of research. It turns out according to Elizabeth Wilson:

"Supporters of all parties are switching to back Lib Dem Elisabeth Wilson this time - the only candidate able to deliver more powers for Scotland and protect local services."

We've seen Labour on the slide all over Scotland whereas the Conservative vote seems to have held up. I'd suggest with it slipping back in the SNP-Lab battlegrounds, surely Stirling is the last place you'd vote Labour "tactically"

The worry for the Scottish Conservatives must surely be that their vote has not increased. The LDs support has vanished, but it all seems to have gone to the SNP/Greens rather than the Conservatives.

Disappointing for them, to be sure. I think they're playing for the next election - hoping SLAB and SLD stay mired in chaos, whereas they are stable and consistent, and can become the natural opposition to the SNP when the SNP fervour eventually flags, however long that takes. As long as the Tories have been doing poorly in Scotland, I imagine they are pretty patient by now.

Pong

calum said:

Just had a leaflet in from Stephen Kerr, the Tory candidate for Stirling making a very direct plea for tactical votes to stop the SNP. Unfortunately other Stirling Tories are already indicating they will be voting tactically for SLAB;

https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f

These guys need to get their act together, Chris seems to think that David Cameron is on-side with him voting for SLAB !!

Update:

As I hadn't heard anything from the LibDem candidate I thought I do a bit of research. It turns out according to Elizabeth Wilson:

"Supporters of all parties are switching to back Lib Dem Elisabeth Wilson this time - the only candidate able to deliver more powers for Scotland and protect local services."

If you could put a little x in the conservatives box, I'd be most grateful.

I'm on the tories to sneak 2nd here at 19/1

JosiasJessop

saddened said:

MikeK said:

OblitusSumMe said:

MikeK said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11558840/How-Ukip-is-winning-the-Google-election.html

More people are searching online for UKIP in the run-up to the election than any of the three main parties.
In the fight for search clicks, the party is dwarfing others online, driving more than four times the amount of traffic to websites than any of the other parties.

This why I think that the polls are mostly wrong and David Herdson is headless in this.

The article doesn't say how many of these searches were of the form "Tactical voting to stop UKIP" or "How to stop UKIP" or "Hilarious memes making fun of UKIP".

This makes it hard to use the aggregate search numbers as a proxy for public opinion.

No, but it means that UKIP has caught the interest of tens of thousands more internet users than the nearest next party.

A lot of UKIP searches are of the "that can't be true nobody is that stupid, I'd better check" variety. I mean some of their supporters believe they are going to get more than 30 seats, that is laugh out loud territory.

It'll be interesting to see if there is any correlation long-term between such metrics and actual results (although correlation does not imply causation should always be remembered).

I daresay there'll be an academic paper or two in it. But as we saw at the last election, 'buzz' about a party might not translate particularly well into votes.

MikeK

saddened said:

MikeK said:

OblitusSumMe said:

MikeK said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11558840/How-Ukip-is-winning-the-Google-election.html

More people are searching online for UKIP in the run-up to the election than any of the three main parties.
In the fight for search clicks, the party is dwarfing others online, driving more than four times the amount of traffic to websites than any of the other parties.

This why I think that the polls are mostly wrong and David Herdson is headless in this.

The article doesn't say how many of these searches were of the form "Tactical voting to stop UKIP" or "How to stop UKIP" or "Hilarious memes making fun of UKIP".

This makes it hard to use the aggregate search numbers as a proxy for public opinion.

No, but it means that UKIP has caught the interest of tens of thousands more internet users than the nearest next party.

A lot of UKIP searches are of the "that can't be true nobody is that stupid, I'd better check" variety. I mean some of their supporters believe they are going to get more than 30 seats, that is laugh out loud territory.

I wonder who's going to laugh the loudest on May 8th after the votes are all in.

david_herdson

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Herdson, good article, especially the point on the new prince/princess [as cunningly mentioned by me on the last thread].

Yes, you did. Damn you. ;-)

anotherDave

Healthcare.
I'm currently reading 'Welfare of Nations' by James Bartholomew.

The best healthcare systems to emulate are apparently: Holland, Switzerland, and Singapore.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_the_Netherlands
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_care_in_Switzerland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Singapore

saddened

JosiasJessop said:

saddened said:

MikeK said:

OblitusSumMe said:

MikeK said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11558840/How-Ukip-is-winning-the-Google-election.html

More people are searching online for UKIP in the run-up to the election than any of the three main parties.
In the fight for search clicks, the party is dwarfing others online, driving more than four times the amount of traffic to websites than any of the other parties.

This why I think that the polls are mostly wrong and David Herdson is headless in this.

The article doesn't say how many of these searches were of the form "Tactical voting to stop UKIP" or "How to stop UKIP" or "Hilarious memes making fun of UKIP".

This makes it hard to use the aggregate search numbers as a proxy for public opinion.

No, but it means that UKIP has caught the interest of tens of thousands more internet users than the nearest next party.

A lot of UKIP searches are of the "that can't be true nobody is that stupid, I'd better check" variety. I mean some of their supporters believe they are going to get more than 30 seats, that is laugh out loud territory.

It'll be interesting to see if there is any correlation long-term between such metrics and actual results (although correlation does not imply causation should always be remembered).

I daresay there'll be an academic paper or two in it. But as we saw at the last election, 'buzz' about a party might not translate particularly well into votes.

If Facebook activity counted as votes, Scotland would be independent and Nick Clegg would be PM.

saddened

MikeK said:

saddened said:

MikeK said:

OblitusSumMe said:

MikeK said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11558840/How-Ukip-is-winning-the-Google-election.html

More people are searching online for UKIP in the run-up to the election than any of the three main parties.
In the fight for search clicks, the party is dwarfing others online, driving more than four times the amount of traffic to websites than any of the other parties.

This why I think that the polls are mostly wrong and David Herdson is headless in this.

The article doesn't say how many of these searches were of the form "Tactical voting to stop UKIP" or "How to stop UKIP" or "Hilarious memes making fun of UKIP".

This makes it hard to use the aggregate search numbers as a proxy for public opinion.

No, but it means that UKIP has caught the interest of tens of thousands more internet users than the nearest next party.

A lot of UKIP searches are of the "that can't be true nobody is that stupid, I'd better check" variety. I mean some of their supporters believe they are going to get more than 30 seats, that is laugh out loud territory.

I wonder who's going to laugh the loudest on May 8th after the votes are all in.

I can guarantee it will be me. UKIP will be <5 seats.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Saddened, if popularity online dictated politics, Grumpy Cat would be PM.

Mr. Herdson, despair at the cunning insight of Morris, Lord of Dancers!*

*Temporarily ignoring the dodgy start to the F1 season.

weejonnie

saddened said:

MikeK said:

saddened said:

MikeK said:

OblitusSumMe said:

MikeK said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11558840/How-Ukip-is-winning-the-Google-election.html

More people are searching online for UKIP in the run-up to the election than any of the three main parties.
In the fight for search clicks, the party is dwarfing others online, driving more than four times the amount of traffic to websites than any of the other parties.

This why I think that the polls are mostly wrong and David Herdson is headless in this.

The article doesn't say how many of these searches were of the form "Tactical voting to stop UKIP" or "How to stop UKIP" or "Hilarious memes making fun of UKIP".

This makes it hard to use the aggregate search numbers as a proxy for public opinion.

No, but it means that UKIP has caught the interest of tens of thousands more internet users than the nearest next party.

A lot of UKIP searches are of the "that can't be true nobody is that stupid, I'd better check" variety. I mean some of their supporters believe they are going to get more than 30 seats, that is laugh out loud territory.

I wonder who's going to laugh the loudest on May 8th after the votes are all in.

I can guarantee it will be me. UKIP will be <5 seats.</p>

UKIP only 13% away from winning a majority! (18% Vs 31%)

anotherDave

JosiasJessop said:

saddened said:

MikeK said:

OblitusSumMe said:

MikeK said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11558840/How-Ukip-is-winning-the-Google-election.html

More people are searching online for UKIP in the run-up to the election than any of the three main parties.
In the fight for search clicks, the party is dwarfing others online, driving more than four times the amount of traffic to websites than any of the other parties.

This why I think that the polls are mostly wrong and David Herdson is headless in this.

The article doesn't say how many of these searches were of the form "Tactical voting to stop UKIP" or "How to stop UKIP" or "Hilarious memes making fun of UKIP".

This makes it hard to use the aggregate search numbers as a proxy for public opinion.

No, but it means that UKIP has caught the interest of tens of thousands more internet users than the nearest next party.

A lot of UKIP searches are of the "that can't be true nobody is that stupid, I'd better check" variety. I mean some of their supporters believe they are going to get more than 30 seats, that is laugh out loud territory.

It'll be interesting to see if there is any correlation long-term between such metrics and actual results (although correlation does not imply causation should always be remembered).

I daresay there'll be an academic paper or two in it. But as we saw at the last election, 'buzz' about a party might not translate particularly well into votes.

There was something about web searches for symptoms predicting epidemics.

In this case there is nothing exceptional about web searches for political parties during an election. UKIP/Greens are less clearly defined so it would make sense for there to be more curiosity about what they're offering.

I wouldn't be surprised about huge traffic spikes knocking out websites the day before the election either.

david_herdson

Pulpstar said:

Have Labour ruled out abstaining on a Conservative Queen Speech yet ?

I'm being utterly and totally serious when I say this too.

Remaining SLABers, Danczuk and the Barrow MP top of my list to effectively call for a Tory Gov't after the election if the result goes the way I think it will.

Why would they need to? A government now only falls on an explicit VoNC due to the FTPA. It may choose to resign on losing a Queen's Speech or Budget but there's no obligation to.

david_herdson

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indigo, it could happen, but they've said that stuff before and there's always been a fudge to keep the Greeks in. I'll believe it when I see it.

If we had a Greek exit and the royal baby on the same day, I wonder what the media would do.

I thought Philip was in quite good health given his age?

Carnyx

kle4 said:

anotherDave said:

Pulpstar said:

calum said:

Just had a leaflet in from Stephen Kerr, the Tory candidate for Stirling making a very direct plea for tactical votes to stop the SNP. Unfortunately other Stirling Tories are already indicating they will be voting tactically for SLAB;

https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f

These guys need to get their act together, Chris seems to think that David Cameron is on-side with him voting for SLAB !!

Update:

As I hadn't heard anything from the LibDem candidate I thought I do a bit of research. It turns out according to Elizabeth Wilson:

"Supporters of all parties are switching to back Lib Dem Elisabeth Wilson this time - the only candidate able to deliver more powers for Scotland and protect local services."

We've seen Labour on the slide all over Scotland whereas the Conservative vote seems to have held up. I'd suggest with it slipping back in the SNP-Lab battlegrounds, surely Stirling is the last place you'd vote Labour "tactically"

The worry for the Scottish Conservatives must surely be that their vote has not increased. The LDs support has vanished, but it all seems to have gone to the SNP/Greens rather than the Conservatives.

Disappointing for them, to be sure. I think they're playing for the next election - hoping SLAB and SLD stay mired in chaos, whereas they are stable and consistent, and can become the natural opposition to the SNP when the SNP fervour eventually flags, however long that takes. As long as the Tories have been doing poorly in Scotland, I imagine they are pretty patient by now.

I do wonder though how they would have fared if they'd gone with Murdo Fraser and a proper shakeup and possible autonomy from London HQ.

Your comment did - not intentionally I am usre - remind me of Mr Salmond's crack some years ago:

"Mr Salmond claimed former foreign secretary and Scottish secretary Sir Malcolm [Rifkind] and ex-Scottish secretary Lord Forsyth had presided over the electoral decline of the Tories north of the Border, when they served in the cabinets of Margaret Thatcher and John Major.

He dubbed the two Tory grandees “the Bourbons of Scottish politics – they have ‘learned nothing and forgotten nothing’” ".

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-alex-salmond-hits-back-at-tory-bourbons-in-battle-over-devo-max-1-2128186

tlg86

david_herdson said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indigo, it could happen, but they've said that stuff before and there's always been a fudge to keep the Greeks in. I'll believe it when I see it.

If we had a Greek exit and the royal baby on the same day, I wonder what the media would do.

I thought Philip was in quite good health given his age?

Very good!

david_herdson

SimonStClare said:

An excellent thread Mr Herdson – well worth the wait due to the slovenly Lordship.

Minor niggle - second paragraph, surely tis ‘whom’, not who?

I did instinctively think about that but it was gone midnight when I wrote the piece, so my brain wasn't perhaps focussed as much as it should have been on the finer points of grammar.

Eh_ehm_a_eh

calum said:

I was surprised to discover when researching my local Lib Dem candidate for Stirling that Willie Rennie is one of my regional list MSPs. Fair to say as I'm a political geek and was unaware of this, it makes me wonder what % of the voting population could name their list MSPs. Further, if very few people know of their existence - what do these guys actually do all day?

Well Willie, Ruth and Kez are all glad of the list.

Roger

It's difficult not to be angry with the Lib Dems. So many talented and articulate MP's (I just heard Jo Swinson) and such a rubbishy leadership. I wonder whether their best chance isn't for someone like Farron to rock the boat and say what every remaining Lib Dem must be thinking. Time for Clegg and Co to join the Tories.

John_N

Indigo said:

unless you are a deficit denier

Deficit denier? Is that like negative denier, meaning not wearing tights at all?

Indigo

weejonnie said:

Indigo said:

SMukesh said:

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rentool, Mr. G tipped Patel as next leader at 50/1.

It's her or Justine Greening.

Mr G? I've been banging on about nothing else for 5 years!

Priti Patel won`t be PM of this country.

The same was said about Fatcha.

Fatcha said it about Fatcha

That doesn't count, that's expected

"While one does not seek the office, one has pledged oneself to the service of one's country, and if one's friends were to persuade one that was the best way one could serve, one might have to accept the responsibility whatever one's own private wishes might be." etc

weejonnie

With regards to UKIP

In April 2014 there were 500,000 searchers about related matters to UKIP
In May 2014 there were 2,182,000 searches
In March 2015 there were 429,000 searchers

The average number of searches per month for UKIP policies is 51,000 (361,000 in May 2014)
the average number of searches per month for UKIP manifesto is 18,000 and
the average number of searches per month for "Is ukip Racist" or "ukip racist" is 10,000 - 89,000 in May 2014

Data taken from Google adwords requesting "UKIP" as keyword.

NB - almost certain that number of searches per month is NOT uniform.

Note that the European Elections were on 22nd May and the General Election is on the 7th - so would expect number of people looking up UKIP to start increasing rapidly now as they start making up their minds.