I understand from a friend who is pretty senior in the Tory party they are expecting to lose about 40 to Labour;5 to UKIP (he wouldnt say which) and gain 12-15 from Lib Dems.
That would give the Tories about 275 seats (I'm prediciting 272). Not enough.
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
I understand from a friend who is pretty senior in the Tory party they are expecting to lose about 40 to Labour;5 to UKIP (he wouldnt say which) and gain 12-15 from Lib Dems.
That would give the Tories about 275 seats (I'm prediciting 272). Not enough.
I understand from a friend who is pretty senior in the Tory party they are expecting to lose about 40 to Labour;5 to UKIP (he wouldnt say which) and gain 12-15 from Lib Dems.
Lord Ashcrofts poll suggests they should lose significantly less than 40 seat's to Labour doesn't it?
Yesterday had a call from the CEO of a French-based Euro38billion global company whose non-French business is growing rapidly. Wanted the know what the result of the UKGE would be as they are thinking of moving their HQ to London. After much conversation they will decide after May 7. If the Cons win, they will come to London, if EdM is PM they will look elsewhere.
Also had a drinks yesterday evening with former colleagues where one speculated whether the late Ralph Miliband was a 'sleeper' and ever became active and whether such 'talents' had been passed to his progeny?
Do you ever get any actual work done? You seem to spend your entire time chatting to people who are in the middle of planning whether to base themselves in the UK or not and happen to be incredibly sensitive to minor political differences.
I'm convinced a number of comments on this blog come straight from Tory HQ!
I understand from a friend who is pretty senior in the Tory party they are expecting to lose about 40 to Labour;5 to UKIP (he wouldnt say which) and gain 12-15 from Lib Dems.
Lord Ashcrofts poll suggests they should lose significantly less than 40 seat's to Labour doesn't it?
My feeling is that this is pretty consistent with Ashcroft individual constituency polling isn't it?
Shame we have to spend £1-billion on Overseas-Aid-Consultants when we could buy some 'White-tail' Globemaster-IIIs. Then when have the politicos cared about defence or foreign-affairs (as opposed to supplementing their incomes/pensions)...?
Labour is already the oldest party (in terms of age of MPs), and the choice of a large number of retreads (like Zeichner) this time surprises me.
At least 8 of the new candidates replacing Labour retiring MPs are also over 50
St Helens South candidate is already over 65 Women selected in Blackburn, Neath and Coventry NE are around 60 Swansea East candidate is in mid 50 and Bristol South's one is 51. The chap replacing Blunkett in Sheffield is likely to be at least in the 55-60 range given he was a NUM rep during the miner strike. Same for new candidate in Bootle considering he was already a Cllr in 1981.
In many of these cases it's the CLP going for the "senior Cllr" route (St Helens South, Blackburn, Coventry NE, Sheffield Brightside and Bootle; 2 were sitting Council Leaders, 1 was the Deputy Council Leader and 1 a former Council leader).
I think this is highly undesirable because [1] Labour’s vote is skewed to the younger age brackets and [2] Labour badly needs an infusion of fresh talent and new ideas.
It will be interesting to look at the average age of MPs of the parties after the GE.
The Neath candidate is Ron Davies’ ex-wife.
She probably was the best choice on the shortlist, which included Tracey Ullman’s daughter, largely born and bought up in the US and now living in London.
Yesterday had a call from the CEO of a French-based Euro38billion global company whose non-French business is growing rapidly. Wanted the know what the result of the UKGE would be as they are thinking of moving their HQ to London. After much conversation they will decide after May 7. If the Cons win, they will come to London, if EdM is PM they will look elsewhere.
Also had a drinks yesterday evening with former colleagues where one speculated whether the late Ralph Miliband was a 'sleeper' and ever became active and whether such 'talents' had been passed to his progeny?
Do you ever get any actual work done? You seem to spend your entire time chatting to people who are in the middle of planning whether to base themselves in the UK or not and happen to be incredibly sensitive to minor political differences.
I'm convinced a number of comments on this blog come straight from Tory HQ!
My view is that party organisations don't need to be so hand on, Tory or otherwise. The internet will provide enthusiastic amateurs willing to shill the party line, and even take it further than the party itself can reasonably go (certainly when it comes to negative comments), with very little direction. Comments only come straight from Tory or Labour HQ in the sense of of people seeing, agreeing, then sharing them.
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
Do you realise how tedious and boring your posts become the closer the election approaches, and the more partisan you become?
I'm off to enjoy the day and have a good country walk. Good day to you.
a concern I have is Miliband as PM, buggering the English for his own partisan ends.
If LAB's lost its Scottish auto-vote bedrock, a rational leader would want to play very nice in England knowing that to annoy the only remaining constituency (sorry Wales) means he can kiss his political arse (as opposed to ARSE) goodbye. Is Miliband more rational than malicious? We'll see.
(Returning from lurkdom. Must be an election on or something.)
Colne Valley and High Peak are useful seats to poll, both historically Tory seats, taken by Blair in 1997 and only retaken by the Tories in 2010 with swings of over 6%.
They are the sorts of seats Labour would retake if the national polling like YouGov is to be believed - Colne Valley requires a Tory-Labour swing of 5.3% and High Peak 4.6%.
But the actual swings Labour are getting in these polls (4.5% and 3.5%) are more in line with the national phone polls...
However, let's not forget though that this polling is a week old already...
Yesterday had a call from the CEO of a French-based Euro38billion global company whose non-French business is growing rapidly. Wanted the know what the result of the UKGE would be as they are thinking of moving their HQ to London. After much conversation they will decide after May 7. If the Cons win, they will come to London, if EdM is PM they will look elsewhere.
Also had a drinks yesterday evening with former colleagues where one speculated whether the late Ralph Miliband was a 'sleeper' and ever became active and whether such 'talents' had been passed to his progeny?
Do you ever get any actual work done? You seem to spend your entire time chatting to people who are in the middle of planning whether to base themselves in the UK or not and happen to be incredibly sensitive to minor political differences.
I'm convinced a number of comments on this blog come straight from Tory HQ!
Yesterday evening I had a quick drink with Control at a little place near the Circus. He was in very agitated state. There was, he firmly believed, a mole deep in the very heart of PB.com
"I don't think that's right - if Lab+LD was viable he'd still be up for that, no? Obviously in those circumstances Ed Miliband would have the option of dispensing with LD and just working with the SNP, but a coalition with the LibDems would sound more stable than a minority government dependent on the SNP."
But isn't it an odd position for a party who have made 'fair votes' their raison d'etre to say would have nothing to do with joining a government that was in any way beholden to a party that will (almost certainly) have considerably more seats than them?
Well, the thought up-thread was that they were effectively ruling out a coalition with Labour, and my point is that they're not - if the arithmetic is right, and Labour are willing to make concessions, they'll do it.
I guess the practical difficulty in that situation is that it's going to be hard for Ed Miliband to sell concessions to his own party if they also have the option of going into government without giving up cabinet jobs by working with the SNP. Maybe the way through this would be for the LibDems to go into opposition initially, then join a government coalition if and when the SNP start dicking Labour around.
Yesterday had a call from the CEO of a French-based Euro38billion global company whose non-French business is growing rapidly. Wanted the know what the result of the UKGE would be as they are thinking of moving their HQ to London. After much conversation they will decide after May 7. If the Cons win, they will come to London, if EdM is PM they will look elsewhere.
Also had a drinks yesterday evening with former colleagues where one speculated whether the late Ralph Miliband was a 'sleeper' and ever became active and whether such 'talents' had been passed to his progeny?
Bloody hell. Whoever would have thought this? But it does chime with my own anecdote. I was having a cream sherry the other day with an unbelievably successful entrepreneur from Birmingham who will open dozens of factories if the Tories win on 7th May, but is planning to close his business down and take a cyanide pill if Labour squeeze home.
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
Has it occurred to you he was reading the autocue, which was wrong...?
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
Has it occurred to you he was reading the autocue, which was wrong...?
Nope. He would know what team he supports if he supports one. Why has he pretended? It's so bizarre.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 30 mins30 minutes ago Cameron's cover up for his speechwriter reminds me of his refusal to point to out head-on-desk girl was convulsed with shyness not boredom
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
Has it occurred to you he was reading the autocue, which was wrong...?
Nope. He would know what team he supports if he supports one. Why has he pretended? It's so bizarre.
I wonder why politicians pretend to be footy fans. Mind you, with Cameron you wonder if he sometimes forgets what party he is.
At least Ed is a tribal Labourite.
Unfortunately, there is a significant portion of the thicker segment of the media and electorate who would take against someone because they did not follow football.
I would not be surprised if there was a strong correlation between those idiots and tribal political loyalists. After all, both are about supporting 'their' team regardless of any evidence.
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
How could anybody genuinely interested in football "forget" which team they support. Dave really is such a phony. Perhaps his PR company have told him he needs a few more votes in the East London & Essex and a few less in the Midlands!
I understand from a friend who is pretty senior in the Tory party they are expecting to lose about 40 to Labour;5 to UKIP (he wouldnt say which) and gain 12-15 from Lib Dems.
Lord Ashcrofts poll suggests they should lose significantly less than 40 seat's to Labour doesn't it?
My feeling is that this is pretty consistent with Ashcroft individual constituency polling isn't it?
Using the Ashcroft individual polls, I get Tories on 268 seats.
Ignoring the Ashcroft individual polls and just using my switching model with Con 2.4% share lead on Lab, I get Tories on 274 seats. This includes a squeeze on UKIP voters (except in seats where UKIP has a chance).
Mr. Observer, he wants to be liked. He's less comfortable in his skin than Boris is in his.
We also have Miliband's Blair impersonation. Clegg's the best 'performer', but the most authentic is Farage.
I've never understood why some feel awkward about being born into privilege. It seems as odd to me as people who dislike the successful and feel the automatic response to prosperity should be a tax hike.
Labour is already the oldest party (in terms of age of MPs), and the choice of a large number of retreads (like Zeichner) this time surprises me.
At least 8 of the new candidates replacing Labour retiring MPs are also over 50
St Helens South candidate is already over 65 Women selected in Blackburn, Neath and Coventry NE are around 60 Swansea East candidate is in mid 50 and Bristol South's one is 51. The chap replacing Blunkett in Sheffield is likely to be at least in the 55-60 range given he was a NUM rep during the miner strike. Same for new candidate in Bootle considering he was already a Cllr in 1981.
In many of these cases it's the CLP going for the "senior Cllr" route (St Helens South, Blackburn, Coventry NE, Sheffield Brightside and Bootle; 2 were sitting Council Leaders, 1 was the Deputy Council Leader and 1 a former Council leader).
As an aside, I see that Blunkett was born in Jessop Hospital in Sheffield. Doing a little digging, it is named after Thomas Jessop was a Sheffield steelmaker, from a family of steelmakers. Since my moniker's family had interests in steelmaking (e.g. the Butterley Company) in the nearby area, I wonder if he was a branch of the same family? A quick search of Josias' family shows no link.
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
Has it occurred to you he was reading the autocue, which was wrong...?
Please do not confuse our :tumbleweed:
The lickle-pup:
# Does reading (especially helped by 'bar-charts'), but fails to # Comprehend meaning.
SoWo can only equate such-like through his own, sad experiences. Those experiences of others - whom he may have had contact with - do not compute to his twin-brain-cell way-of-thinking....
Looking through the tables there are a number of assumptions and adjustments being made. They might be correct for a national poll but do they work at this level?
The numbers, with the exception of Bristol W, dont tell us very much, very much within moe with not any real change. However Bristol W is interesting, despite the straw grasping of OGH, unless the poll is a complete rogue and the methodology complete rubbish, the LDs are loosing. The difference in numbers is stark, from 1st to 3rd place. Stephen Williams might have a personal vote and some support from tories (for which there is evidence in the figures) but not enough on these figures. The implications for the LDs are not good, if their vote has dropped this much in prime LD territory in the South West what is happening in the LD-CON marginals?
O dear that poll has not come out blue, I must apply magic turnout ointment, pity I can't do this on May 7th. Maxim is if it is not blue in the lead then change it. Fair play anyone??
One more thing on Clegg's comments on working with the SNP: He strengthens Scottish Labour's line that you need to vote for them to get rid of David Cameron, rather than an SNP vote being the same as a Labour vote only more progressive. Until now Jim Murphy has had to rely on the claim that the biggest party tends to form a government and anything else would be a weird constitutional abberation, which isn't very convincing, and contradicts the line Labour may well be using the day after the election.
Cameron's gaffe is one of those "reinforcing" moments. People who already hate him will just use it to reinforce their hatred - fake, phoney, PR man, "always knew he was a wrong-un", etc
Speaking of which, toying with backing Rosberg at 4, each way, to win in Spain. He was very racy in Bahrain, and the slower circuit may not suit the Ferrari.
Bit wary, though. The three week break is long enough for changes to be made, and the Mercedes advantage isn't enormous. Overtaking could be tricky [Williams cannot challenge the front two teams but are fast enough to be a problem passing].
Intriguing to see how McLaren get on. On pace, they could equal the Ferraris.
I've not seen this market, but if you could back McLaren to be top 3 in the Constructors' at good odds [minimum of 20/1, preferably 40/1 plus] it might be worth a shot.
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
Has it occurred to you he was reading the autocue, which was wrong...?
Nope. He would know what team he supports if he supports one. Why has he pretended? It's so bizarre.
We know why politicians pretend such things, though I would hope they are wrong that people would in any way care, but yes, a silly error from Cameron. Not a gaffe of the major order, but opening oneself to ridicule is never a positive even if its not going to shift anything on its own.
On to more serious things: the Ashcroft polls clearly good for the Tories and support my view that Labour will do well to exceed its current seat total. If Clegg wins in Sheffield it now looks like we will get Coalition 2.0.
Cameron's gaffe is one of those "reinforcing" moments. People who already hate him will just use it to reinforce their hatred - fake, phoney, PR man, "always knew he was a wrong-un", etc
Speaking of which, toying with backing Rosberg at 4, each way, to win in Spain. He was very racy in Bahrain, and the slower circuit may not suit the Ferrari.
Bit wary, though. The three week break is long enough for changes to be made, and the Mercedes advantage isn't enormous. Overtaking could be tricky [Williams cannot challenge the front two teams but are fast enough to be a problem passing].
Intriguing to see how McLaren get on. On pace, they could equal the Ferraris.
I've not seen this market, but if you could back McLaren to be top 3 in the Constructors' at good odds [minimum of 20/1, preferably 40/1 plus] it might be worth a shot.
Rosberg's attitude impressed me at Bahrain - I'd thought he'd mentally give up after being utterly bested by Hamilton at the first three races. But he fought well - almost Hamiltonesque at times.
Having said that, I've got no doubt that Hamilton is the better of the two drivers. He's also won the world championship, so he knows he can do it. That doubt will be gnawing away at the back of Rosberg's mind.
I wouldn't bet against Hamilton for the title, again.
I missed that Mail piece. It is pretty priceless What the journalist leaves out is that the chap works as researcher for Blunkett. Hence he was a close ally of Blunkett rather than someone who would disapprove getting selected to succeed him.
Labour is already the oldest party (in terms of age of MPs), and the choice of a large number of retreads (like Zeichner) this time surprises me.
At least 8 of the new candidates replacing Labour retiring MPs are also over 50
St Helens South candidate is already over 65 Women selected in Blackburn, Neath and Coventry NE are around 60 Swansea East candidate is in mid 50 and Bristol South's one is 51. The chap replacing Blunkett in Sheffield is likely to be at least in the 55-60 range given he was a NUM rep during the miner strike. Same for new candidate in Bootle considering he was already a Cllr in 1981.
In many of these cases it's the CLP going for the "senior Cllr" route (St Helens South, Blackburn, Coventry NE, Sheffield Brightside and Bootle; 2 were sitting Council Leaders, 1 was the Deputy Council Leader and 1 a former Council leader).
As an aside, I see that Blunkett was born in Jessop Hospital in Sheffield. Doing a little digging, it is named after Thomas Jessop was a Sheffield steelmaker, from a family of steelmakers. Since my moniker's family had interests in steelmaking (e.g. the Butterley Company) in the nearby area, I wonder if he was a branch of the same family? A quick search of Josias' family shows no link.
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
Has it occurred to you he was reading the autocue, which was wrong...?
Nope. He would know what team he supports if he supports one. Why has he pretended? It's so bizarre.
We know why politicians pretend such things, though I would hope they are wrong that people would in any way care, but yes, a silly error from Cameron. Not a gaffe of the major order, but opening oneself to ridicule is never a positive even if its not going to shift anything on its own.
Only Cameron of the leaders seems to think it's important. Won't cost him a vote, but it's one to add to his glorious pantheon along with the Guinness, the shopping in Morrisons, the Easyjet etc. It's a really strange lack of ease that probably explains why he does not seem that keen to fight and fight again to stay PM.
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
Do you realise how tedious and boring your posts become the closer the election approaches, and the more partisan you become?
I'm off to enjoy the day and have a good country walk. Good day to you.
Mr. Jessop, got to say I was surprised, and a bit irritated that he suddenly remembered his this racing business works [I'd backed the Ferraris to do well]. If only the Mercedes' brakes had failed (in a non-dangerous way) earlier. Oh well.
This title is near certain to be Hamilton's.
I did tip him and Rosberg pre-season.
Which reminds me, that's 3 wins for Hamilton. I think he needs 11/15 for my bet (at 9) for him to exceed the current in-season record. It's possible, but by no means certain.
Looking through the tables there are a number of assumptions and adjustments being made. They might be correct for a national poll but do they work at this level?
The numbers, with the exception of Bristol W, dont tell us very much, very much within moe with not any real change. However Bristol W is interesting, despite the straw grasping of OGH, unless the poll is a complete rogue and the methodology complete rubbish, the LDs are loosing. The difference in numbers is stark, from 1st to 3rd place. Stephen Williams might have a personal vote and some support from tories (for which there is evidence in the figures) but not enough on these figures. The implications for the LDs are not good, if their vote has dropped this much in prime LD territory in the South West what is happening in the LD-CON marginals?
I think a lot of 'general' or accepted behaviours go out the window when thinking about the CON-LD marginals. So much local baggage comes into play, and - paradoxically - the core vote might hold up more? My take is that, where the LDs have had a big majority, more people would have been voting LD for longer, and then - arguably - supporters felt more betrayed by some of the compromises that came out of coalition. For marginals, where blood, sweat and tears were heavier last GE, where tactical voting was more in evidence, supporters tend to be a bit more battle-hardened and happier to accept a bit of realpolitik.
I may be completely wrong, but I think in the CON-LD marginals (as far as the LD are concerned) there is still a lot to play for, particularly with 'good' LD incumbents who've had a good coalition, or where the CON incumbents have obvious local weaknesses. Of course, all these arguments work for CON to ;-)
Be careful about inferring an average Con-Lab marginals swing from these polls, because there is a selection bias: the marginals with bigger swings have already been polled and found to be not very competitive, like Brentford and Isleworth, so they aren't getting polled again.
Labour is already the oldest party (in terms of age of MPs), and the choice of a large number of retreads (like Zeichner) this time surprises me.
At least 8 of the new candidates replacing Labour retiring MPs are also over 50
St Helens South candidate is already over 65 Women selected in Blackburn, Neath and Coventry NE are around 60 Swansea East candidate is in mid 50 and Bristol South's one is 51. The chap replacing Blunkett in Sheffield is likely to be at least in the 55-60 range given he was a NUM rep during the miner strike. Same for new candidate in Bootle considering he was already a Cllr in 1981.
In many of these cases it's the CLP going for the "senior Cllr" route (St Helens South, Blackburn, Coventry NE, Sheffield Brightside and Bootle; 2 were sitting Council Leaders, 1 was the Deputy Council Leader and 1 a former Council leader).
As an aside, I see that Blunkett was born in Jessop Hospital in Sheffield. Doing a little digging, it is named after Thomas Jessop was a Sheffield steelmaker, from a family of steelmakers. Since my moniker's family had interests in steelmaking (e.g. the Butterley Company) in the nearby area, I wonder if he was a branch of the same family? A quick search of Josias' family shows no link.
IIRC from my childhood years, Butterley was renowned for its bricks.
Yep, I helped demolish a few Butterley brick buildings in my youth. ;-)
The Butterley Company sadly closed up shop a few years ago. Yet another steelworks closed. However they live on in many spectacular structures, including the Falkirk Wheel and St Pancras trainshed roof.
I think the Greens might go up in Bristol West from this poll mind, as it is now "safe" to switch between red and green as they have 58% of the vote between them so there is no chance of letting the yellow peril in.
Watching the Gallipolli ceremony on the TV. We really should make more of our links with Australia and New Zealand. They are a part of us and we of them.
I've just bumped into a whole circled wagon of Labour supporters handing out balloons 'save the NHS' badges etc. I really like the Labour Party. They all seem so sincere and not a 'hooray Henry' in sight
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 30 mins30 minutes ago Cameron's cover up for his speechwriter reminds me of his refusal to point to out head-on-desk girl was convulsed with shyness not boredom
Except...
GOsborneGenius (@GOsborneGenius) 25/04/2015 11:22 @hello2youz@paulwaugh Wrong Text of Cameron’s speech,seems to confirm the West Ham remark wasn’t in the script pic.twitter.com/kSb4YIzQBj
I think the Greens might go up in Bristol West from this poll mind, as it is now "safe" to switch between red and green as they have 58% of the vote between them so there is no chance of letting the yellow peril in.
I would also wonder about how contactable the average student is by a phone pollster calling randomised landline telephone numbers.
There is a very interesting piece in Parliamentary Affairs [(2015), 68(2), 1-16] by Lord Norton of Louth on the effect of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. He suggests that the Act has not merely made exclusive provision governing the dissolution of Parliament, but has formally codified what forms a motion of no confidence may take. He argues that only a motion in the form “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government" (s. 2(4)) now constitutes a motion of no confidence. It follows necessarily from this that the loss of a Queen's Speech, the Finance Bill or the main estimates will no longer amount to a loss of confidence of the House of Commons in HM Government. He even argues that a motion which the Prime Minister has explicitly declared is a motion of confidence is not a motion of confidence unless it is in the form set out in section 2(4) of the Act.
If his interpretation of the Act prevails, two significant consequences will follow. First, the assumption that Cameron must resign if the address in response to the Queen's Speech is successfully amended by the opposition parties is wrong. Second, a government could remain in office even if it failed to secure supply for the Crown, which raises the prospect of American-style government shutdowns.
On to more serious things: the Ashcroft polls clearly good for the Tories and support my view that Labour will do well to exceed its current seat total. If Clegg wins in Sheffield it now looks like we will get Coalition 2.0.
As a LD but broadly happy with the achievements of the coalition I hope you are right. However if I recall your predictions went a bit astray in the Scottish referendum so on that basis I suspect Labour will do better than you are expecting.
Watching the Gallipolli ceremony on the TV. We really should make more of our links with Australia and New Zealand. They are a part of us and we of them.
Why? Do you support 'genetics' or do you support 'free-choice'? Please stop assuming you can speak for others: Allow others to speak for themselves...!
I think the Greens might go up in Bristol West from this poll mind, as it is now "safe" to switch between red and green as they have 58% of the vote between them so there is no chance of letting the yellow peril in.
I would also wonder about how contactable the average student is by a phone pollster calling randomised landline telephone numbers.
That's a good point. The Greens have alot of members too there. Seeing themselves ahead of the Lib Dems must be cause for cheer too.
I understand from a friend who is pretty senior in the Tory party they are expecting to lose about 40 to Labour;5 to UKIP (he wouldnt say which) and gain 12-15 from Lib Dems.
Lord Ashcrofts poll suggests they should lose significantly less than 40 seat's to Labour doesn't it?
Disaster management. - otherwise buying UKIP seats would be a no-brainer.
Yesterday had a call from the CEO of a French-based Euro38billion global company whose non-French business is growing rapidly. Wanted the know what the result of the UKGE would be as they are thinking of moving their HQ to London. After much conversation they will decide after May 7. If the Cons win, they will come to London, if EdM is PM they will look elsewhere.
Also had a drinks yesterday evening with former colleagues where one speculated whether the late Ralph Miliband was a 'sleeper' and ever became active and whether such 'talents' had been passed to his progeny?
Could it be Carrefour - no, they only have a market cap in the mid-20s. Orange? No, turns out they're at 41bn. Obviously one of the CAC 40 though... remarkable that the press haven't got hold of it. Also good to know that at least one of France's largest few companies is experiencing rapid overseas growth. Still, it'll be a huge blow to France to lose such a flagship company.
Financier, I hope you've thought carefully before trading off the back of such a well-kept secret.
Watching the Gallipolli ceremony on the TV. We really should make more of our links with Australia and New Zealand. They are a part of us and we of them.
Why? Do you support 'genetics' or do you support 'free-choice'? Please stop assuming you can speak for others: Allow others to speak for themselves...!
He is not assuming he is speaking for others. He is expressing an opinion and one that is widely held as far as I can see. Certainly one that I agree with as well.
Not sure why you get so uppety about it. Do you have something against antipodeans?
There is a very interesting piece in Parliamentary Affairs [(2015), 68(2), 1-16] by Lord Norton of Louth on the effect of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. He suggests that the Act has not merely made exclusive provision governing the dissolution of Parliament, but has formally codified what forms a motion of no confidence may take. He argues that only a motion in the form “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government" (s. 2(4)) now constitutes a motion of no confidence. It follows necessarily from this that the loss of a Queen's Speech, the Finance Bill or the main estimates will no longer amount to a loss of confidence of the House of Commons in HM Government. He even argues that a motion which the Prime Minister has explicitly declared is a motion of confidence is not a motion of confidence unless it is in the form set out in section 2(4) of the Act.
If his interpretation of the Act prevails, two significant consequences will follow. First, the assumption that Cameron must resign if the address in response to the Queen's Speech is successfully amended by the opposition parties is wrong. Second, a government could remain in office even if it failed to secure supply for the Crown, which raises the prospect of American-style government shutdowns.
Was there ever a time when the Government had to resign as a result of losing a finance bill? Surely it was a question of political will then, and now.
Watching the Gallipolli ceremony on the TV. We really should make more of our links with Australia and New Zealand. They are a part of us and we of them.
Why? Do you support 'genetics' or do you support 'free-choice'? Please stop assuming you can speak for others: Allow others to speak for themselves...!
As ever, I am touched by your obsesseion with me Fluffy. It is clearly an important part of your little life. Bless you xx
It looks like the Liberal Democrats are going to save too many deposits from an optimal vote distribution point of view. Would it be best for their long term interests if Nick Clegg lost? Another coalition with Cameron would surely end with the few holdouts being mopped up in 2020.
I missed that Mail piece. It is pretty priceless What the journalist leaves out is that the chap works as researcher for Blunkett. Hence he was a close ally of Blunkett rather than someone who would disapprove getting selected to succeed him.
Labour is already the oldest party (in terms of age of MPs), and the choice of a large number of retreads (like Zeichner) this time surprises me.
At least 8 of the new candidates replacing Labour retiring MPs are also over 50
St Helens South candidate is already over 65 Women selected in Blackburn, Neath and Coventry NE are around 60 Swansea East candidate is in mid 50 and Bristol South's one is 51. The chap replacing Blunkett in Sheffield is likely to be at least in the 55-60 range given he was a NUM rep during the miner strike. Same for new candidate in Bootle considering he was already a Cllr in 1981.
In many of these cases it's the CLP going for the "senior Cllr" route (St Helens South, Blackburn, Coventry NE, Sheffield Brightside and Bootle; 2 were sitting Council Leaders, 1 was the Deputy Council Leader and 1 a former Council leader).
As an aside, I see that Blunkett was born in Jessop Hospital in Sheffield. Doing a little digging, it is named after Thomas Jessop was a Sheffield steelmaker, from a family of steelmakers. Since my moniker's family had interests in steelmaking (e.g. the Butterley Company) in the nearby area, I wonder if he was a branch of the same family? A quick search of Josias' family shows no link.
Do you have the electoral roll shrinkage figures handy that you posted before? Are there any updated ones. Could be critical in places like Bristol West.
I ask simply because I find his utterances very puzzling - and have seen no clear explanation in particular of his initial speech, which promised such things as thousands of pounds to each foodbank, within 24 hours of winning the election, etc. One other Pber suggested that he was running amok, and I'm beginning to wonder that.
For 70 years the Labour Party has held Great Grimsby without threatening to reverse the town’s decline. That its retiring MP, Austin Mitchell, who has been in post for 38 years, briefly changed his surname to “Haddock” showed solidarity but did not recreate the lost shoals. As a mark of mounting disaffection, his majorities have been shrinking:
Never appoint a chippy from the 'Seventies:
As a pre-schooler - not sent to expensive nuseries in Wales - I used to watch his crap. The Pipkins were more informative.
I agree that partisan posting that isn't funny interesting or informative is boring and should be avoided. But from the other side the amount of mindless Tory propaganda coming out of head office is just so gross I can well understand the temptation to return it. How can Cameron possibly work with the Scots again after an attack so insensitive even Alex Salmond would blush before trying anything similar.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 30 mins30 minutes ago Cameron's cover up for his speechwriter reminds me of his refusal to point to out head-on-desk girl was convulsed with shyness not boredom
Except...
GOsborneGenius (@GOsborneGenius) 25/04/2015 11:22 @hello2youz@paulwaugh Wrong Text of Cameron’s speech,seems to confirm the West Ham remark wasn’t in the script pic.twitter.com/kSb4YIzQBj
Good heavens!
There he is, ranting on, buttonholing anyone and everyone with his Cameron fixation.
Bring back the horse, I say!
I guess it makes a change from running a farm in Cheshire
Clegg and Carmichael don't have a personal vote in my opinion. Hallam should be 80%+ and Orkney and Shetland is such a Lib Dem stronghold that a donkey with a yellow rosette should be able to win there. Even with the SNP surge it should be near the top of the list.
Huppert and Burstow are the pair with the biggest PV methinks.
Watching the Gallipolli ceremony on the TV. We really should make more of our links with Australia and New Zealand. They are a part of us and we of them.
Why? Do you support 'genetics' or do you support 'free-choice'? Please stop assuming you can speak for others: Allow others to speak for themselves...!
As ever, I am touched by your obsesseion with me Fluffy. It is clearly an important part of your little life. Bless you xx
Hmm,
You really are clueless: I am a Mehmet.
Please stop assuming you speak for me or my relations....
Interesting list. Apart from one or two oddballs most are Toryish. After Clegg's announcement this morning even getting a cigarette paper between them would need a neuro surgeon.
Election forecast suggests Montgomeryshire is 18% chance of going yellow.
Watford is not on the start list any more...
The Cons sitting MP is very popular and well regarded by most of his constituents. The antics of Lembit Opik are not forgotten by the very conservative electorate, of ditching a well-loved Welsh lady for a Cheeky Girl.
The LD candidate is campaigning on the health issue which of course is a devolved matter and a matter which she is unable to affect.
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
Do you realise how tedious and boring your posts become the closer the election approaches, and the more partisan you become?
I'm off to enjoy the day and have a good country walk. Good day to you.
Errrm? It's spot on, you just don't forget who you support, you can like other teams, have sympathy for other teams, go and watch other teams more regularly than your team if they're more local, but you don't forget who you support. He could've praised West Ham wholeheartedly in the right words, but utterly messed up.
On its own it's obviously entirely unimportant - the notion that everyone has to like football is daft, and it's actually when pursued fully pretty nerdy rather than the slick cool game the marketing has it. However it plays into the idea Cameron will say anything and is a charlatan, which is his major weakness, that he's a sorry looking crap pub Blair tribute act.
It won't change the polls, but it certainly helps one of Labour's campaign messages, which is that you can't believe a word the Tory high command says. Osborne must be furious, not least because he actually is an avid Chelsea fan to the extent that he risked an horrific photo opportunity when they won the European Cup.
Comments
It doesn't look at all good in terms of casualties.
EDIT although he seems to have noticed!!!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100243898/ed-miliband-is-a-real-baseball-fan-better-than-being-a-fake-football-fan-like-most-politicians/
At least Ed is a tribal Labourite.
That really is LOLworthy ...
Shame we have to spend £1-billion on Overseas-Aid-Consultants when we could buy some 'White-tail' Globemaster-IIIs. Then when have the politicos cared about defence or foreign-affairs (as opposed to supplementing their incomes/pensions)...?
Expressed personal opinions are not promises.
It will be interesting to look at the average age of MPs of the parties after the GE.
The Neath candidate is Ron Davies’ ex-wife.
She probably was the best choice on the shortlist, which included Tracey Ullman’s daughter, largely born and bought up in the US and now living in London.
I'm off to enjoy the day and have a good country walk. Good day to you.
(Returning from lurkdom. Must be an election on or something.)
Colne Valley and High Peak are useful seats to poll, both historically Tory seats, taken by Blair in 1997 and only retaken by the Tories in 2010 with swings of over 6%.
They are the sorts of seats Labour would retake if the national polling like YouGov is to be believed - Colne Valley requires a Tory-Labour swing of 5.3% and High Peak 4.6%.
But the actual swings Labour are getting in these polls (4.5% and 3.5%) are more in line with the national phone polls...
However, let's not forget though that this polling is a week old already...
I guess the practical difficulty in that situation is that it's going to be hard for Ed Miliband to sell concessions to his own party if they also have the option of going into government without giving up cabinet jobs by working with the SNP. Maybe the way through this would be for the LibDems to go into opposition initially, then join a government coalition if and when the SNP start dicking Labour around.
Miliband (or another Labour leader) will want to try and reclaim Scotland.
Of course, the man's a damned fool, so who knows what madness he'll spew forth.
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 39 mins39 minutes ago
Suspect a mortified speechwriter sees PM as best boss in world, risking 'brain fade' ridicule to spare their blushes http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/25/david-cameron-blames-brain-fade-for-getting-his-football-team-wrong …
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh 30 mins30 minutes ago
Cameron's cover up for his speechwriter reminds me of his refusal to point to out head-on-desk girl was convulsed with shyness not boredom
I would not be surprised if there was a strong correlation between those idiots and tribal political loyalists. After all, both are about supporting 'their' team regardless of any evidence.
Ignoring the Ashcroft individual polls and just using my switching model with Con 2.4% share lead on Lab, I get Tories on 274 seats. This includes a squeeze on UKIP voters (except in seats where UKIP has a chance).
We also have Miliband's Blair impersonation. Clegg's the best 'performer', but the most authentic is Farage.
I've never understood why some feel awkward about being born into privilege. It seems as odd to me as people who dislike the successful and feel the automatic response to prosperity should be a tax hike.
The lickle-pup:
# Does reading (especially helped by 'bar-charts'), but fails to
# Comprehend meaning.
SoWo can only equate such-like through his own, sad experiences. Those experiences of others - whom he may have had contact with - do not compute to his twin-brain-cell way-of-thinking....
That zed: He is not outwith hope.
The numbers, with the exception of Bristol W, dont tell us very much, very much within moe with not any real change. However Bristol W is interesting, despite the straw grasping of OGH, unless the poll is a complete rogue and the methodology complete rubbish, the LDs are loosing. The difference in numbers is stark, from 1st to 3rd place. Stephen Williams might have a personal vote and some support from tories (for which there is evidence in the figures) but not enough on these figures. The implications for the LDs are not good, if their vote has dropped this much in prime LD territory in the South West what is happening in the LD-CON marginals?
He's just remembered the claret and blue and probably all the news stuff about West Ham's new stadium and big price cuts for the paying public.
It's not towards the top in the league of fakery though.
The winner of that award is the Nanny's Kitchenette.
Speaking of which, toying with backing Rosberg at 4, each way, to win in Spain. He was very racy in Bahrain, and the slower circuit may not suit the Ferrari.
Bit wary, though. The three week break is long enough for changes to be made, and the Mercedes advantage isn't enormous. Overtaking could be tricky [Williams cannot challenge the front two teams but are fast enough to be a problem passing].
Intriguing to see how McLaren get on. On pace, they could equal the Ferraris.
I've not seen this market, but if you could back McLaren to be top 3 in the Constructors' at good odds [minimum of 20/1, preferably 40/1 plus] it might be worth a shot.
My other Labour hunches
Ilford North
Enfield Southgate
Finchley
Reading West.
Those are all of the "very tight race" mind.
Having said that, I've got no doubt that Hamilton is the better of the two drivers. He's also won the world championship, so he knows he can do it. That doubt will be gnawing away at the back of Rosberg's mind.
I wouldn't bet against Hamilton for the title, again.
What the journalist leaves out is that the chap works as researcher for Blunkett. Hence he was a close ally of Blunkett rather than someone who would disapprove getting selected to succeed him.
This title is near certain to be Hamilton's.
I did tip him and Rosberg pre-season.
Which reminds me, that's 3 wins for Hamilton. I think he needs 11/15 for my bet (at 9) for him to exceed the current in-season record. It's possible, but by no means certain.
I may be completely wrong, but I think in the CON-LD marginals (as far as the LD are concerned) there is still a lot to play for, particularly with 'good' LD incumbents who've had a good coalition, or where the CON incumbents have obvious local weaknesses. Of course, all these arguments work for CON to ;-)
The Butterley Company sadly closed up shop a few years ago. Yet another steelworks closed. However they live on in many spectacular structures, including the Falkirk Wheel and St Pancras trainshed roof.
GOsborneGenius (@GOsborneGenius)
25/04/2015 11:22
@hello2youz @paulwaugh Wrong
Text of Cameron’s speech,seems to confirm the West Ham remark wasn’t in the script pic.twitter.com/kSb4YIzQBj
If his interpretation of the Act prevails, two significant consequences will follow. First, the assumption that Cameron must resign if the address in response to the Queen's Speech is successfully amended by the opposition parties is wrong. Second, a government could remain in office even if it failed to secure supply for the Crown, which raises the prospect of American-style government shutdowns.
Financier, I hope you've thought carefully before trading off the back of such a well-kept secret.
Not sure why you get so uppety about it. Do you have something against antipodeans?
I expect Eastham to go blue.
Mulholland has a lot going in his favour though.
Gordon Brown is rallying Labour in Scotland.
No deals,no compromise,no coalition with SNP`.
Leeds NW,the Milton Keynes seats are possible gains.
Carshalton
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Thornbury
Colchester
Sutton
Southport
Westmorland
Cambridge
North Norfolk
Lewes
80-90% "Safe"
Orkney
Twickers
Cheltenham
Kingston
Hazel Grove
Yeovil
70-80% "Reasonably safe"
Bermondsey
60- 70% "Should hold"
Yardley
Bath
Brecon and Radnorshire
50-60% "Knife edge, back Lib Dem at Evens"
Torbay
Hallam
I ask simply because I find his utterances very puzzling - and have seen no clear explanation in particular of his initial speech, which promised such things as thousands of pounds to each foodbank, within 24 hours of winning the election, etc. One other Pber suggested that he was running amok, and I'm beginning to wonder that.
As a pre-schooler - not sent to expensive nuseries in Wales - I used to watch his crap. The Pipkins were more informative.
:though-jack-hargreaves-was-best:
Mulholland PV could pull it through.
Not on the Hanretty list mind...
https://twitter.com/ScotIndyDebate/status/591922037855248384
Brown has clout in Scotland though he is persona non grata in England.
He did save the Union when the Independence campaign were running amok at the end.
Watford is not on the start list any more...
Tedious........etc
I agree that partisan posting that isn't funny interesting or informative is boring and should be avoided. But from the other side the amount of mindless Tory propaganda coming out of head office is just so gross I can well understand the temptation to return it. How can Cameron possibly work with the Scots again after an attack so insensitive even Alex Salmond would blush before trying anything similar.
There he is, ranting on, buttonholing anyone and everyone with his Cameron fixation.
Bring back the horse, I say!
I guess it makes a change from running a farm in Cheshire
Huppert and Burstow are the pair with the biggest PV methinks.
You really are clueless: I am a Mehmet.
Please stop assuming you speak for me or my relations....
:tumbleweed:
Swing required 4%
National swing-10%
Interesting list. Apart from one or two oddballs most are Toryish. After Clegg's announcement this morning even getting a cigarette paper between them would need a neuro surgeon.
Let's hope we can get as much help to Nepal as possible.
He hasn't told us how he'd vote a Labour Queen's speech if Con + LD can't get the numbers to govern.
I expect Farron is sharpening the knife.
The LD candidate is campaigning on the health issue which of course is a devolved matter and a matter which she is unable to affect.
On its own it's obviously entirely unimportant - the notion that everyone has to like football is daft, and it's actually when pursued fully pretty nerdy rather than the slick cool game the marketing has it. However it plays into the idea Cameron will say anything and is a charlatan, which is his major weakness, that he's a sorry looking crap pub Blair tribute act.
It won't change the polls, but it certainly helps one of Labour's campaign messages, which is that you can't believe a word the Tory high command says. Osborne must be furious, not least because he actually is an avid Chelsea fan to the extent that he risked an horrific photo opportunity when they won the European Cup.