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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling sees UKIP taking Thurr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling sees UKIP taking Thurrock but losing Rochester
Summary latest @LordAshcroft seat polls pic.twitter.com/I0ST2L7UC0
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The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st April Projection) :
Con 304 (+1) .. Lab 249 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (+1) .. SNP 40 (NC) .. PC 3 (+1) .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (+1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 22 seats short of a majority
Turnout Projection .. 67.5% (+0.5)
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Apr - No Change.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
But rejoice, rejoice, rejoice at the news from Rochester.
On Thread - Yet again no named candidates in the Lord A polls - it is a weakness.
Colne Valley, High Peak and Rochester could go either way.
But I'm hopeful for Kelly, if the party works hard.
I'm definitely going to spend Election Day in Rochester knocking up the voters.
But Vox Populi, Vox Dei
This is an election. Elections are about emotion, not intellect. And it's politics. Politics is dirty. This looks like rather an effective poster from where I'm standing. The agency ain't going to lose any accounts over this one.
LAB haven't got the sense to take the fight to the SNP (advice to LAB HQ if you're reading: send some heavyweights north of the border, right now!). But CON obviously have.
My prediction is a CON plurality and another CON-LD coalition.
Next most likely result: a CON majority.
Next: a CON-SNP deal, doubtless spun as something completely different from a coalition, 'pact', 'S&C', etc., but a deal nonetheless.
The English question looms. In the third scenario above, it will have to be raised in a big way; there will hardly be any choice. In the other two scenarios, CON will probably raise it. Why? Because it's in their interests, and the sad reality is that LAB missed their chance. (I am a LAB member, by the way.)
(sorry - originally posted this in the wrong thread)
"Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal."
There's no way of reading todays statement by Clegg other than he will only enter into a coalition with the Tories. For it to be otherwise Labour would have to have some control over the SNP which clearly they haven't got.
I imagine Labour supporters are flooding Sheffield
The SNP are the best thing that ever happened to the Tory party.
Here's why:
- in Scotland, they're taking all the LAB seats
- in England, they're allowing CON (and even LD) to scare people into changing their voting intention away from LAB to CON (or even LD)
Bold!
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/bristol-west/winning-party
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2007/oct/24/1
The Conservative solution is not good enough. We need an English Parliament. However, the Conservatives are at least recognising there's a problem, and their measure is a step in the right direction.
The Tories might be worth a punt at 5/1 with Hills for Thurrock. They're not too far away on this poll. Ed Miliband scores also joint last on the choice of PM question under "dissatisfied and prefer Miliband".
If the UKIP vote is squeezed in their favour, or it doesn't turn out whilst the Tories do, they might squeak it.
Like the old graffiti - "I used to think I was indecisive but now I'm not so sure."
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/nozx6j63ly/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-240415.pdf
Edited extra bit: hmm. Some suggestion it was a few days ago, but my point stands.
There is no political strategy Labour could use to stop their imminent wipe out in Scotland. The Shadow Foreign Secretary is about to be gutted by a 20 year old student purely because he is Labour and she is SNP.
Labour already called in the big guns they have available. Most would be toxic - Miliband and Balls would only lower their vote. They sent Murphy north and he's about to be slaughtered. They called up Gordon Brown and he's being laughed at.
Nothing Labour can do will change what is happening.
There's another very good result for the Conservatives in the Bristol/Somerset area. Perhaps Yeovil really is in danger.
They'll be pleased to be ahead in Rochester, and in with a shout in Thurrock. I guess they'd rather lose Thurrock to UKIP than Labour, as it denies Labour their number 3 target seat.
Rochester and Thurrock still both achievable for UKIP I see. I had no idea Labour were so close in Thurrock last time, they really should be winning a seat like that given the UKIP surge, surely? Part of me wonders if Clegg, who is clearly a glutton for punishment at times, is not only trying to seem more appealing to Tories to gain their tacticals in his own seat, but futilely trying to single handedly keep Lab resources away from other LD seats by getting them to focus even more on trying to decapitate him than was already the case.
On a more serious note, I agree. However, it's worth noting a willing soul's worth three pressed men, so it's not all bad.
For that matter, the Conservatives have a keen interest in protecting their right flank for the longer term.
It's a way of stopping more Con MPs defecting to UKIP in the future.
> Labour ahead in 43 seats
> Labour tied with the Tories in 4 seats
> Tories holding 20 seats
> UKIP taking 1 seat (Thurrock)
> 8 seats unpolled (Peterborough, Stafford, Stourbridge, Aberconwy, Ilford North, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Brigg & Goole and Battersea)
Of the 43 seats in which Labour has a lead, their lead is 5% or less in 16 of those seats.
Of the 20 seats in which the Tories have a lead, their lead is 5% or less in 11 of those seats.
8.5 NW City of Chester
7.5 NW Crewe and Nantwich
7.0 GL Finchley and Golders Green
7.0 SW Bristol W (Lib Dem Seat)
6.0 SE Milton Keynes South
5.5 GL Harrow East
5.5 NW Wirral west
5.0 EM Nuneaton
5.0 GL Croydon Central
5.0 SE Hove
5.0 NW Rossendale and Darwen
5.0 NW South Ribble
4.7 YOUGOV UNS last night
4.5 YH Colne Valley
4.0 NW Morecambe and Lunesdale
4.0 SE Rochester ad Strood
4.0 SW South Swindon
3.5 SE Southampton Itchen
3.5 EM High Peak
3.5 YH Cleethorpes
3.0 NE Stockton South
3.0 WM Dudley South
3.0 WM Halesowen
2.0 NW Pendle
1.5 YH Pudsey
1.5 SW Bristol NW
1.0 SE Dover
0.5 EE Harlow
0.5 EE Thurrock
0.5 EM Loughborough
0.5 NW Blackpool North
0.5 SW Gloucester
0.5 SW Worcester
-2.0 SW Kingswood
-3.5 SW NE Somerset
But in Times visits to Rossindale & Darwin and Norwich N, Tory attempts to plant seed of doubt about SNP v successful http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4422058.ece …
It's working...
You are using figures from the 2010 polls when the Tories had a 7 point lead, you need to update your calculations with 2015 poll results.
Or are you just sponsored by the Daily Mail?
There's no point in ignoring it! It ain't 2010 anymore
The reason this is so damaging is that it plays on SNP strengths and exuberance, and Miliband's character. Will he really stand up to the SNP?
The SNP have set it up for the Tories first by ruling out a coalition, and then by crying foul when Tories address the issue. Yesterday after EVEL was brought up by Cameron Sturgeon was on the news saying it shouldn't happen. How does that play in average English household. SNP want the benefits of devolution but want to deny England fairness.
If the Tories win all the seats Ashcroft shows a small Labour lead of <5% in - i.e. confine losses to Labour to just 27 seats - and just drop Thurrock, South Thanet and Clacton to UKIP. Then they have 30 losses to make up.
A dozen gains from the Lib Dems would get them back up to 288 seats.
But even on that (relatively good) performance, that's probably still about six seats short of remaining in government.
Still, I doubt any would be as quick as that French MEP who quit the FN only a couple of days after the Euros.
And then I checked the Lab target list for High Peak and Colne valley(69 and 77).
If Lab`s that close in these seats,it does show what Con are up against.
Best bowled before they reach one-hundred, me-thinks,
From local election results it was already clear Labour was struggling in Bristol NW. High Peak and Colne Valley are what they should be given the national picture: close fights.
In Thurrock UKIP is taking votes from both Con and Lab. Again we knew it from previous polling and local results.
Con will be relived they are ahead in Rochester but Reckless in still in contention to hold it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Shortest-serving_by-election_victors
If you don't count him on the basis that he didn't (and couldn't) take up his seat then it's the 46 days of Henry Compton in 1905. The post-war record, Sands excluded, is 57 days.
No Lib Dem incumbent. In an area of Tory strength, and the type of posh spa town the Tories did so unexpectedly well in during GE2010 - e.g. Winchester and Harrogate.
"Part of me wonders if Clegg, who is clearly a glutton for punishment at times, is not only trying to seem more appealing to Tories to gain their tacticals in his own seat, but futilely trying to single handedly keep Lab resources away from other LD seats by getting them to focus even more on trying to decapitate him than was already the case."
If the Labour manifesto of 1983 was 'the longest suicide note in history' Clegg's message this morning was the shortest.
The Tories must try and limit their losses to Labour to 20 or less, and aim for a dozen gains or more from the Liberal Democrats. They must confine their UKIP losses to no more than 3-4.
15 existing Tory seats are write-offs to Labour. Labour will pick up between 15-40 seats from the Tories IMHO, my current best guess would be around the 30 mark.
Cameron seems destined to lead the party to results which are actually pretty good in many ways, just not quite good enough.
Reasonable Thurrock poll, again Ukip much further ahead on raw data.
Surprised Bown doesn't commission polls in those seats as Ukip would be miles ahead w Survation in all if them
I wonder whether the likes of Simon Hughes will hold in Southwark.
There are about 15 Lib defences from Lab and it does look like 10 Lab gains certain.
Don;t add up to me. Unless that is the labour poll score is too high with everybody but dear old survation, which painted a picture of a party in meltdown.
Is there really an appetite for radical left of centre politics in the reasonably prosperous swing seats we are talking about??? I very much doubt it.
But then the miracles of modern medicine intervened to ensure a "permanent" retirement wasn't enforced.
The Tory campaign is disgustingly anti-Scottish not just anti-SNP/Lab. No self-respecting Scot of any political persasion regards it with anything other than total contempt eg Alex Massie in the Spectator. It will finish the panda argument on no of Tories in Scotland in favour of the pandas.
Is it working south of the border? I would say not because on the burden of the evidence the poll position is basically unchanged despite Labour's inept campaign and indeed Farage's surprising under the weather performance which should have flattened UKIP but basically hasn't.
What it does tell you is that a Prime Minister who leaves his campaign totally in the hands of an Australian attack dog is not fit to be Prime Minister and in two to three weeks time will, in all probability, not be.
That gets Labour to.. 285 seats. And that assumes they hold on to double-figures in Scotland.
I find it very hard to see how they get into the 300's on these figures and swings.
Assume 3 Conservative losses to UKIP, and 14 or so gains from the Lib Dems. 8 Labour gains from the Lib Dems, and 30 losses to SNP, and 1 to UKIP. That would give 278 Con to 274 Lab.
Rogerdamus has pronounced that it is a terrible idea for the Tories to highlight the consequences of an SNP/Labour a££iance.......
Ed feared the SNP will insist SLAB is being abandoned and Labour was "giving up" on Scotland.
As we can see, Tories heard of the idea and grabbed it.
They are both centrist social democrats.
Indeed. But think about why. Would you be hitting websites and watching TV programmes if it were a foregone conclusion?
The media kind of needs it to be close and dramatic. And there's an added bonus. If the result is not like the polls then there's all those 'this is what swung it' analyses to read.
The tories are at best 2/1 for that seat. Pretty measly odds for a party that has no chance.