The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st April Projection) :
Con 304 (+1) .. Lab 249 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (+1) .. SNP 40 (NC) .. PC 3 (+1) .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (+1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Apr - No Change.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Responding to the Salmond the pickpocket image, Twitterers are showing a combination of intellectual criticism and protestations of "ooh, how dirty!"
This is an election. Elections are about emotion, not intellect. And it's politics. Politics is dirty. This looks like rather an effective poster from where I'm standing. The agency ain't going to lose any accounts over this one.
LAB haven't got the sense to take the fight to the SNP (advice to LAB HQ if you're reading: send some heavyweights north of the border, right now!). But CON obviously have.
My prediction is a CON plurality and another CON-LD coalition. Next most likely result: a CON majority. Next: a CON-SNP deal, doubtless spun as something completely different from a coalition, 'pact', 'S&C', etc., but a deal nonetheless.
The English question looms. In the third scenario above, it will have to be raised in a big way; there will hardly be any choice. In the other two scenarios, CON will probably raise it. Why? Because it's in their interests, and the sad reality is that LAB missed their chance. (I am a LAB member, by the way.)
(sorry - originally posted this in the wrong thread)
"Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal."
There's no way of reading todays statement by Clegg other than he will only enter into a coalition with the Tories. For it to be otherwise Labour would have to have some control over the SNP which clearly they haven't got.
I imagine Labour supporters are flooding Sheffield
Interesting again to see how little difference "think of the constituency" makes, even in Thurrock. I think that in the most intensely-fought seats, voters are now already thinking of the local situation when they answer Q1. Colne Valley and High Peak remain too close to call, which is what I've heard too (others here have seen High Peak as a sure Tory hold, but their ground game there is particularly weak - it's a hard constituency to cover as it's so huge), as does Rochester & Stroud (where a bit of incumbency bonus is visible in Q2). Bristol West looks a pretty secure Lab gain.
peter- it was accompanied on Newsnight that the Jock bashing is working- Tory high command is pleased how this scaremongering, strategy is working for them. Also, why Clegg has refused any kind of deal with the SNP- he wants his fair share of Jock bashing too.
What they want is to take votes from LAB. Bashing Jocks is the means, not the end. Cameron - and if necessary, Cameron and Clegg - will be quite capable of doing a deal with the SNP after the election if that's what they need to do.
The SNP are the best thing that ever happened to the Tory party.
Here's why:
- in Scotland, they're taking all the LAB seats
- in England, they're allowing CON (and even LD) to scare people into changing their voting intention away from LAB to CON (or even LD)
Interesting that the responses to Q1 and Q2 seem to be converging, it is what you would assume would happen but good to have it confirmed.. Bristol West stands out to me most predictions have that as a LD hold, this suggests a pretty conclusive lab gain. Bristol MW seems pretty much a con hold and the other three are in play. What these polls dont take into account is how good the parties are at getting their voters to actually vote, lab probably has the advantage here though I would guess that counts for less at a GE with higher turnout. Not sure any great conclusions can be drawn here. Shame Thanet was not included
Mr. N, a concern I have is Miliband as PM, buggering the English for his own partisan ends.
The Conservative solution is not good enough. We need an English Parliament. However, the Conservatives are at least recognising there's a problem, and their measure is a step in the right direction.
Just bunged some more on Charlotte Leslie in Bristol North West with Corals at 4/9.
The Tories might be worth a punt at 5/1 with Hills for Thurrock. They're not too far away on this poll. Ed Miliband scores also joint last on the choice of PM question under "dissatisfied and prefer Miliband".
If the UKIP vote is squeezed in their favour, or it doesn't turn out whilst the Tories do, they might squeak it.
Interesting that the responses to Q1 and Q2 seem to be converging, it is what you would assume would happen but good to have it confirmed.. Bristol West stands out to me most predictions have that as a LD hold, this suggests a pretty conclusive lab gain. Bristol MW seems pretty much a con hold and the other three are in play. What these polls dont take into account is how good the parties are at getting their voters to actually vote, lab probably has the advantage here though I would guess that counts for less at a GE with higher turnout. Not sure any great conclusions can be drawn here. Shame Thanet was not included
Lord Ashcroft has hinted that he will poll South Thanet shortly.
Trivial MOE methodological query on last night's YG. Lab is +3 on raw preference, +3 among those who are sure how they'll vote, +5 among those who say they'll wait till polling day to finally decide and has fractionally higher likelihood to vote than the Conservatives. So why is the overall lead weighted for likelihood +2? The only reason I can think of is that there seems to be a group of voters who NEITHER say they're sure NOR that they're not sure, as the two figure don't add up to the total. So there may be a group of voters who say "I'm not sure if I'm sure or not", with a smaller Labour lead?
Like the old graffiti - "I used to think I was indecisive but now I'm not so sure."
Incidentally, today is the due date of the Duchess of Cambridge. One imagines parties are all ready to wish all the best, but they'll also need to be aware that any campaigning or speech could be utterly overwhelmed by the avalanches of royal baby coverage at any moment.
Edited extra bit: hmm. Some suggestion it was a few days ago, but my point stands.
Responding to the Salmond the pickpocket image, Twitterers are showing a combination of intellectual criticism and protestations of "ooh, how dirty!"
This is an election. Elections are about emotion, not intellect. And it's politics. Politics is dirty. This looks like rather an effective poster from where I'm standing. The agency ain't going to lose any accounts over this one.
LAB haven't got the sense to take the fight to the SNP (advice to LAB HQ if you're reading: send some heavyweights north of the border, right now!). But CON obviously have.
My prediction is a CON plurality and another CON-LD coalition. Next most likely result: a CON majority. Next: a CON-SNP deal, doubtless spun as something completely different from a coalition, 'pact', 'S&C', etc., but a deal nonetheless.
The English question looms. In the third scenario above, it will have to be raised in a big way; there will hardly be any choice. In the other two scenarios, CON will probably raise it. Why? Because it's in their interests, and the sad reality is that LAB missed their chance. (I am a LAB member, by the way.)
You keep posting this nonsense about how Labour should be doing more and doing better against the SNP.
There is no political strategy Labour could use to stop their imminent wipe out in Scotland. The Shadow Foreign Secretary is about to be gutted by a 20 year old student purely because he is Labour and she is SNP.
Labour already called in the big guns they have available. Most would be toxic - Miliband and Balls would only lower their vote. They sent Murphy north and he's about to be slaughtered. They called up Gordon Brown and he's being laughed at.
Nothing Labour can do will change what is happening.
More examples of campaigners going with their heart's rather than their heads: Tories flooding Rochester, socialists flooding Sheffield, all getting sidetracked from the vital matter of defeating the real opposition.
But rejoice, rejoice, rejoice at the news from Rochester.
You do realise that the election hasn't actually finished yet?
Yes that's why I said on course to lose and why I'm going campaigning in Rochester.
But Vox Populi, Vox Dei
Ashcroft seems pretty consistent now in showing an average swing of about 3% to Labour in Con/Lab marginals outside London. That's probably sufficient for the Tories to be the largest party, but not sufficient to form a government.
There's another very good result for the Conservatives in the Bristol/Somerset area. Perhaps Yeovil really is in danger.
They'll be pleased to be ahead in Rochester, and in with a shout in Thurrock. I guess they'd rather lose Thurrock to UKIP than Labour, as it denies Labour their number 3 target seat.
A shame the Greens are not closer in Bristol West. Still a great result for them if they match the poll, but it'd be more fun if they took it or at least ran Labour close. As it is, an easy win.
Rochester and Thurrock still both achievable for UKIP I see. I had no idea Labour were so close in Thurrock last time, they really should be winning a seat like that given the UKIP surge, surely?
I imagine Labour supporters are flooding Sheffield
Part of me wonders if Clegg, who is clearly a glutton for punishment at times, is not only trying to seem more appealing to Tories to gain their tacticals in his own seat, but futilely trying to single handedly keep Lab resources away from other LD seats by getting them to focus even more on trying to decapitate him than was already the case.
More examples of campaigners going with their heart's rather than their heads: Tories flooding Rochester, socialists flooding Sheffield, all getting sidetracked from the vital matter of defeating the real opposition.
Labour's chances of forming the next government sharply increase if Nick Clegg is out of the House of Commons.
For that matter, the Conservatives have a keen interest in protecting their right flank for the longer term.
More examples of campaigners going with their heart's rather than their heads: Tories flooding Rochester, socialists flooding Sheffield, all getting sidetracked from the vital matter of defeating the real opposition.
Traitorous Pig Dogs Delenda Est.
It's a way of stopping more Con MPs defecting to UKIP in the future.
Last few marginals in ranked order (Con-Lab swing)
8.5 NW City of Chester 7.5 NW Crewe and Nantwich 7.0 GL Finchley and Golders Green 7.0 SW Bristol W (Lib Dem Seat) 6.0 SE Milton Keynes South 5.5 GL Harrow East 5.5 NW Wirral west 5.0 EM Nuneaton 5.0 GL Croydon Central 5.0 SE Hove 5.0 NW Rossendale and Darwen 5.0 NW South Ribble 4.7 YOUGOV UNS last night 4.5 YH Colne Valley 4.0 NW Morecambe and Lunesdale 4.0 SE Rochester ad Strood 4.0 SW South Swindon 3.5 SE Southampton Itchen 3.5 EM High Peak 3.5 YH Cleethorpes 3.0 NE Stockton South 3.0 WM Dudley South 3.0 WM Halesowen 2.0 NW Pendle 1.5 YH Pudsey 1.5 SW Bristol NW 1.0 SE Dover 0.5 EE Harlow 0.5 EE Thurrock 0.5 EM Loughborough 0.5 NW Blackpool North 0.5 SW Gloucester 0.5 SW Worcester -2.0 SW Kingswood -3.5 SW NE Somerset
More examples of campaigners going with their heart's rather than their heads: Tories flooding Rochester, socialists flooding Sheffield, all getting sidetracked from the vital matter of defeating the real opposition.
Traitorous Pig Dogs Delenda Est.
It's a way of stopping more Con MPS defecting to UKIP in the future.
I would laugh if a few Tories defected straight after the election and DID NOT hold a by election.
Noting Mike's comments on the pre-weighted figures for Colne Valley & Rochester, do we know who does the polling for Lord A and how the weightings are arrived at? Presumably he commissions the polls privately - do we know if everything he commissions is published ? I would like someone to set my mind at rest because, to be honest, I do feel a little uncomfortable with polls that come from partisan sources. I might add that I feel the same way when I see a poll commissioned by Unite or Unison. I am not attacking the integrity of the polling companies but would generally like to know what room for manipulation there is in when polls are privately commissioned
Responding to the Salmond the pickpocket image, Twitterers are showing a combination of intellectual criticism and protestations of "ooh, how dirty!"
This is an election. Elections are about emotion, not intellect. And it's politics. Politics is dirty. This looks like rather an effective poster from where I'm standing. The agency ain't going to lose any accounts over this one.
LAB haven't got the sense to take the fight to the SNP (advice to LAB HQ if you're reading: send some heavyweights north of the border, right now!). But CON obviously have.
My prediction is a CON plurality and another CON-LD coalition. Next most likely result: a CON majority. Next: a CON-SNP deal, doubtless spun as something completely different from a coalition, 'pact', 'S&C', etc., but a deal nonetheless.
The English question looms. In the third scenario above, it will have to be raised in a big way; there will hardly be any choice. In the other two scenarios, CON will probably raise it. Why? Because it's in their interests, and the sad reality is that LAB missed their chance. (I am a LAB member, by the way.)
(sorry - originally posted this in the wrong thread)
The other thing it does for the Tories is plant a seed that may come to fruition if Labour do form a government.. I am fairly sure the 85% of English people will not wanto to be bribing th 8 % Scots or 2% ulstermen. If there is another election in short order, which there may have to be, then this predicts one of the problems that may lead to it.
The reason this is so damaging is that it plays on SNP strengths and exuberance, and Miliband's character. Will he really stand up to the SNP?
The SNP have set it up for the Tories first by ruling out a coalition, and then by crying foul when Tories address the issue. Yesterday after EVEL was brought up by Cameron Sturgeon was on the news saying it shouldn't happen. How does that play in average English household. SNP want the benefits of devolution but want to deny England fairness.
But rejoice, rejoice, rejoice at the news from Rochester.
You do realise that the election hasn't actually finished yet?
Yes that's why I said on course to lose and why I'm going campaigning in Rochester.
But Vox Populi, Vox Dei
Ashcroft seems pretty consistent now in showing an average swing of about 3% to Labour in Con/Lab marginals outside London. That's probably sufficient for the Tories to be the largest party, but not sufficient to form a government.
There's another very good result for the Conservatives in the Bristol/Somerset area. Perhaps Yeovil really is in danger.
They'll be pleased to be ahead in Rochester, and in with a shout in Thurrock. I guess they'd rather lose Thurrock to UKIP than Labour, as it denies Labour their number 3 target seat.
I think that's right.
If the Tories win all the seats Ashcroft shows a small Labour lead of <5% in - i.e. confine losses to Labour to just 27 seats - and just drop Thurrock, South Thanet and Clacton to UKIP. Then they have 30 losses to make up.
A dozen gains from the Lib Dems would get them back up to 288 seats.
But even on that (relatively good) performance, that's probably still about six seats short of remaining in government.
More examples of campaigners going with their heart's rather than their heads: Tories flooding Rochester, socialists flooding Sheffield, all getting sidetracked from the vital matter of defeating the real opposition.
Traitorous Pig Dogs Delenda Est.
It's a way of stopping more Con MPS defecting to UKIP in the future.
I would laugh if a few Tories defected straight after the election and DID NOT hold a by election.
It would indeed be funny. I'm trying to consider the most likely justifications they could give. If Cameron allied with the LDs rather than however many UKIP MPs there were, showing he was determined to act against conservative principles when given the choice? Cameron being ousted and replaced by another Europhile leader (I cannot see any openly Europhile one being chosen mind you)?
Still, I doubt any would be as quick as that French MEP who quit the FN only a couple of days after the Euros.
The only obvious difference from the norm in these polls is the complete humiliation of the Lib Dems
Roger- the fact that Labour are getting within touching distance of seats like Colne Valley and High Peak means this could be a very good night indeed for Labour- this is close to a 5% swing, and brings Labour into the 300's if they get these.
More examples of campaigners going with their heart's rather than their heads: Tories flooding Rochester, socialists flooding Sheffield, all getting sidetracked from the vital matter of defeating the real opposition.
Traitorous Pig Dogs Delenda Est.
It's a way of stopping more Con MPS defecting to UKIP in the future.
I would laugh if a few Tories defected straight after the election and DID NOT hold a by election.
Doesn't seem likely. If Cameron some how manages to cling on as PM with (even the best case version of) the maths he's looking at, the awkward squad will be cheerily readying the metaphorical vice for his mythical balls. If he departs as leader, they'll get their chance to appoint a eurosceptic leader. Either way they will have more power to deliver a UKIP-like agenda in British politics than they would within UKIP.
The only result I wasn't expecting is Bristol West.
From local election results it was already clear Labour was struggling in Bristol NW. High Peak and Colne Valley are what they should be given the national picture: close fights.
In Thurrock UKIP is taking votes from both Con and Lab. Again we knew it from previous polling and local results.
Con will be relived they are ahead in Rochester but Reckless in still in contention to hold it.
The only obvious difference from the norm in these polls is the complete humiliation of the Lib Dems
Roger- the fact that Labour are getting within touching distance of seats like Colne Valley and High Peak means this could be a very good night indeed for Labour- this is close to a 5% swing, and brings Labour into the 300's if they get these.
If you don't count him on the basis that he didn't (and couldn't) take up his seat then it's the 46 days of Henry Compton in 1905. The post-war record, Sands excluded, is 57 days.
But rejoice, rejoice, rejoice at the news from Rochester.
You do realise that the election hasn't actually finished yet?
Yes that's why I said on course to lose and why I'm going campaigning in Rochester.
But Vox Populi, Vox Dei
Ashcroft seems pretty consistent now in showing an average swing of about 3% to Labour in Con/Lab marginals outside London. That's probably sufficient for the Tories to be the largest party, but not sufficient to form a government.
There's another very good result for the Conservatives in the Bristol/Somerset area. Perhaps Yeovil really is in danger.
They'll be pleased to be ahead in Rochester, and in with a shout in Thurrock. I guess they'd rather lose Thurrock to UKIP than Labour, as it denies Labour their number 3 target seat.
Once again, Bath looks tasty.
No Lib Dem incumbent. In an area of Tory strength, and the type of posh spa town the Tories did so unexpectedly well in during GE2010 - e.g. Winchester and Harrogate.
"Part of me wonders if Clegg, who is clearly a glutton for punishment at times, is not only trying to seem more appealing to Tories to gain their tacticals in his own seat, but futilely trying to single handedly keep Lab resources away from other LD seats by getting them to focus even more on trying to decapitate him than was already the case."
If the Labour manifesto of 1983 was 'the longest suicide note in history' Clegg's message this morning was the shortest.
The Tories must try and limit their losses to Labour to 20 or less, and aim for a dozen gains or more from the Liberal Democrats. They must confine their UKIP losses to no more than 3-4.
15 existing Tory seats are write-offs to Labour. Labour will pick up between 15-40 seats from the Tories IMHO, my current best guess would be around the 30 mark.
If the Tories are right about the shy Tory effect being in play this time, it could be a decent night for them after all - some tight holds here, so if the effect is in play they could really limit their overall losses. Too bad if they lose more than 10-15 they are out of government, but it would be a very good result after 5 years of talking about cuts.
Cameron seems destined to lead the party to results which are actually pretty good in many ways, just not quite good enough.
The Tories must try and limit their losses to Labour to 20 or less, and aim for a dozen gains or more from the Liberal Democrats. They must confine their UKIP losses to no more than 3-4.
15 existing Tory seats are write-offs to Labour. Labour will pick up between 15-40 seats from the Tories IMHO, my current best guess would be around the 30 mark.
My Bristol West bet on the Lib Dems doesn't look good.
Mr Senior, of this parish was as optimistic as you for the LDs there. With the Lib Dems now third! Staggering to see a 10,000 majority of a LD incumbent over turned. But we all know how well the LD vote is apparently holding up where they have an incumbent?
The only obvious difference from the norm in these polls is the complete humiliation of the Lib Dems
Roger- the fact that Labour are getting within touching distance of seats like Colne Valley and High Peak means this could be a very good night indeed for Labour- this is close to a 5% swing, and brings Labour into the 300's if they get these.
That is not the case.
Well if you round up one swing and ignore the other it's 5%.
Rochester is Tory heartland. If you're going to defect to another party, you better be a popular local candidate. I never thought Reckless would retain.
If the Tories are right about the shy Tory effect being in play this time, it could be a decent night for them after all - some tight holds here, so if the effect is in play they could really limit their overall losses. Too bad if they lose more than 10-15 they are out of government, but it would be a very good result after 5 years of talking about cuts.
Cameron seems destined to lead the party to results which are actually pretty good in many ways, just not quite good enough.
I think Lord Ashcroft previously said 21 was the maximum number of Tory losses to realistically stay in government.
The only obvious difference from the norm in these polls is the complete humiliation of the Lib Dems
Roger- the fact that Labour are getting within touching distance of seats like Colne Valley and High Peak means this could be a very good night indeed for Labour- this is close to a 5% swing, and brings Labour into the 300's if they get these.
If Labour were winning everything up to Colne Valley and High Peak, you'd be right. Ashcroft suggests they aren't.
This SNP double whammy for Labour is a really cruel blow. My belief is that the Tory/Media campaign works even though most of the persuaded voters don't really understand what it's about. That's the power of advertising and the power of the bogeyman. And it's very hard for Labour to fight back against, since explaining their position only raises the profile of the Scottish question even more. I'm afraid to say it's about time Labour did more negative campaigning of its own.
I find it puzzling that the cons seem to be doing very well in marginals against a soft left of centre party (dems) and yet are about to concede 30 seats to a much more radical left of centre party (lab)
Don;t add up to me. Unless that is the labour poll score is too high with everybody but dear old survation, which painted a picture of a party in meltdown.
Is there really an appetite for radical left of centre politics in the reasonably prosperous swing seats we are talking about??? I very much doubt it.
Tories saved by methodology, Reckless ahead on raw data just as Ukip are in Lord Ashcrofts Basildon South, Castle Point and Boston polls Reasonable Thurrock poll, again Ukip much further ahead on raw data. Surprised Bown doesn't commission polls in those seats as Ukip would be miles ahead w Survation in all if them
Yes get some comfort polling and waste more money. BJ4UKIP?
I think it's a very encouraging result for Reckless in Rochester.
Agreed. At worst it looks like it'll be close and he's in with a shout. Given the Tories were initially, if briefly, hopeful of retaining the seat at the by-election, and then confident of regaining it at the GE, this poll means everything is still in play.
If the Tories are right about the shy Tory effect being in play this time, it could be a decent night for them after all - some tight holds here, so if the effect is in play they could really limit their overall losses. Too bad if they lose more than 10-15 they are out of government, but it would be a very good result after 5 years of talking about cuts.
Cameron seems destined to lead the party to results which are actually pretty good in many ways, just not quite good enough.
I think Lord Ashcroft previously said 21 was the maximum number of Tory losses to realistically stay in government.
Given the total collapse of the LDs, who might not even be inclined to prop the Tories up again, personally I don't think they can lose more than 10 overall and stay in government. I admit that's probably among the most negative assessments of the Tory chances (even in the event of what would be a good result for them) that are out there.
The Tory campaign is disgustingly anti-Scottish not just anti-SNP/Lab. No self-respecting Scot of any political persasion regards it with anything other than total contempt eg Alex Massie in the Spectator. It will finish the panda argument on no of Tories in Scotland in favour of the pandas.
Is it working south of the border? I would say not because on the burden of the evidence the poll position is basically unchanged despite Labour's inept campaign and indeed Farage's surprising under the weather performance which should have flattened UKIP but basically hasn't.
What it does tell you is that a Prime Minister who leaves his campaign totally in the hands of an Australian attack dog is not fit to be Prime Minister and in two to three weeks time will, in all probability, not be.
The only obvious difference from the norm in these polls is the complete humiliation of the Lib Dems
Roger- the fact that Labour are getting within touching distance of seats like Colne Valley and High Peak means this could be a very good night indeed for Labour- this is close to a 5% swing, and brings Labour into the 300's if they get these.
That is not the case.
Well if you round up one swing and ignore the other it's 5%.
If we are generous, and limit Labour's losses in Scotland to just 30 seats, then they start (nominally) on 228 seats. If they took every single seat Ashcroft's constituency polls suggest, and the ties, then they'd take 47 seats from the Tories. Let's also assume they take a further 10 from the Liberal Democrats.
That gets Labour to.. 285 seats. And that assumes they hold on to double-figures in Scotland.
I find it very hard to see how they get into the 300's on these figures and swings.
Seems a bit weird to show changes on vote from 2010 in Rochester and call it a Con gain? If the don't knows and reallocations are based in 2010 votes it's a bit of a nonsense isn't it?
But rejoice, rejoice, rejoice at the news from Rochester.
You do realise that the election hasn't actually finished yet?
Yes that's why I said on course to lose and why I'm going campaigning in Rochester.
But Vox Populi, Vox Dei
Ashcroft seems pretty consistent now in showing an average swing of about 3% to Labour in Con/Lab marginals outside London. That's probably sufficient for the Tories to be the largest party, but not sufficient to form a government.
There's another very good result for the Conservatives in the Bristol/Somerset area. Perhaps Yeovil really is in danger.
They'll be pleased to be ahead in Rochester, and in with a shout in Thurrock. I guess they'd rather lose Thurrock to UKIP than Labour, as it denies Labour their number 3 target seat.
I think that's right.
If the Tories win all the seats Ashcroft shows a small Labour lead of <5% in - i.e. confine losses to Labour to just 27 seats - and just drop Thurrock, South Thanet and Clacton to UKIP. Then they have 30 losses to make up.
A dozen gains from the Lib Dems would get them back up to 288 seats.
But even on that (relatively good) performance, that's probably still about six seats short of remaining in government.</p>
A 3% swing gives Labour 38 seats. If we add Harrow East and Finchley, and subtract Thurrock, that's 39.
Assume 3 Conservative losses to UKIP, and 14 or so gains from the Lib Dems. 8 Labour gains from the Lib Dems, and 30 losses to SNP, and 1 to UKIP. That would give 278 Con to 274 Lab.
I find it puzzling that the cons seem to be doing very well in marginals against a soft left of centre party (dems) and yet are about to concede 30 seats to a much more radical left of centre party (lab)
Don;t add up to me. Unless that is the labour poll score is too high with everybody but dear old survation, which painted a picture of a party in meltdown.
Is there really an appetite for radical left of centre politics in the reasonably prosperous swing seats we are talking about??? I very much doubt it.
I don't think most people regard Labour as being anywhere close to radical left, even if the coalition government, party leadership and coming cull of a large chunk of MPs and members means the LDs are now close to the centre than them.
lol...In Bristol West,LIBS have a majority of 12,000 and it doesn`t even figure in Lab`s 105 target seats.The swing is Lib-Lab 17%
It truly does feel like Labour could be in for a lucky election, just edging over the line in some places, or in Bristol West, not even improving that massively but aided by a massive increase for a party that is coming from nowhere and cannot realistically win. I'd have thought Thurrock was in the same situation, but it looks like Labs luck might not extend quite that far, not that it needs to.
St. George's Day was a perfect opportunity for Labour to deal with the SNP question by publishing their plans for English devolution. The idea of a "England-only manifesto" came from Jack Dromey, but Ed Miliband wasn't interested.
Ed feared the SNP will insist SLAB is being abandoned and Labour was "giving up" on Scotland.
As we can see, Tories heard of the idea and grabbed it.
Is there really an appetite for radical left of centre politics in the reasonably prosperous swing seats we are talking about??? I very much doubt it.
Doubtful, but as Labour aren't offering radical left of centre politics i figure people aren't all that bothered. The truth is you can't put a fag paper between Labour and Cons on most issues.
Responding to the Salmond the pickpocket image, Twitterers are showing a combination of intellectual criticism and protestations of "ooh, how dirty!"
This is an election. Elections are about emotion, not intellect. And it's politics. Politics is dirty. This looks like rather an effective poster from where I'm standing. The agency ain't going to lose any accounts over this one.
LAB haven't got the sense to take the fight to the SNP (advice to LAB HQ if you're reading: send some heavyweights north of the border, right now!). But CON obviously have.
My prediction is a CON plurality and another CON-LD coalition. Next most likely result: a CON majority. Next: a CON-SNP deal, doubtless spun as something completely different from a coalition, 'pact', 'S&C', etc., but a deal nonetheless.
The English question looms. In the third scenario above, it will have to be raised in a big way; there will hardly be any choice. In the other two scenarios, CON will probably raise it. Why? Because it's in their interests, and the sad reality is that LAB missed their chance. (I am a LAB member, by the way.)
You keep posting this nonsense about how Labour should be doing more and doing better against the SNP.
There is no political strategy Labour could use to stop their imminent wipe out in Scotland. The Shadow Foreign Secretary is about to be gutted by a 20 year old student purely because he is Labour and she is SNP.
Labour already called in the big guns they have available. Most would be toxic - Miliband and Balls would only lower their vote. They sent Murphy north and he's about to be slaughtered. They called up Gordon Brown and he's being laughed at.
Nothing Labour can do will change what is happening.
Yougov have Labour/SNP as a highly unpopular combination.
Who needs Yougov?
Rogerdamus has pronounced that it is a terrible idea for the Tories to highlight the consequences of an SNP/Labour a££iance.......
Well if it isn't shifting the YouGov VI scores as of yet, then it may not be a terrible idea (I think it's the most potentially effective one they have), but the unpopularity of it isn't proving helpful as yet either.
This is the damnedest of elections. LD's aside, there is a not a single day that provides for any clear trends.
Indeed. But think about why. Would you be hitting websites and watching TV programmes if it were a foregone conclusion?
The media kind of needs it to be close and dramatic. And there's an added bonus. If the result is not like the polls then there's all those 'this is what swung it' analyses to read.
The only obvious difference from the norm in these polls is the complete humiliation of the Lib Dems
Roger- the fact that Labour are getting within touching distance of seats like Colne Valley and High Peak means this could be a very good night indeed for Labour- this is close to a 5% swing, and brings Labour into the 300's if they get these.
That is not the case.
Well if you round up one swing and ignore the other it's 5%.
If we are generous, and limit Labour's losses in Scotland to just 30 seats, then they start (nominally) on 228 seats. If they took every single seat Ashcroft's constituency polls suggest, and the ties, then they'd take 47 seats from the Tories. Let's also assume they take a further 10 from the Liberal Democrats.
That gets Labour to.. 285 seats. And that assumes they hold on to double-figures in Scotland.
I find it very hard to see how they get into the 300's on these figures and swings.
You can still back NOM at 1.13 on Betfair this morning. It looks like value to me even at that price.
I find it puzzling that the cons seem to be doing very well in marginals against a soft left of centre party (dems) and yet are about to concede 30 seats to a much more radical left of centre party (lab)
Don;t add up to me. Unless that is the labour poll score is too high with everybody but dear old survation, which painted a picture of a party in meltdown.
Is there really an appetite for radical left of centre politics in the reasonably prosperous swing seats we are talking about??? I very much doubt it.
Ignoring how strongly many Labour voters would disagree with your use of "radical" here, the point you might be missing is that the LD vote in Blue-Yellow marginals was supported by large numbers of left-of-centre Labour voters last time round. This time round most of us have reached the point of considering the LDs as rebadged Tories and they don't merit a tactical vote as a result. Clegg, as has been noted this morning, seems to be only too happy to validate this view.
The only obvious difference from the norm in these polls is the complete humiliation of the Lib Dems
Roger- the fact that Labour are getting within touching distance of seats like Colne Valley and High Peak means this could be a very good night indeed for Labour- this is close to a 5% swing, and brings Labour into the 300's if they get these.
That is not the case.
If they got a 5% swing and seats like Colne and High Peak it would be. Labour are within touching distance but maybe this scaremongering Jock business will boost the Tories.
Comments
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st April Projection) :
Con 304 (+1) .. Lab 249 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (+1) .. SNP 40 (NC) .. PC 3 (+1) .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (+1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 22 seats short of a majority
Turnout Projection .. 67.5% (+0.5)
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Apr - No Change.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
But rejoice, rejoice, rejoice at the news from Rochester.
On Thread - Yet again no named candidates in the Lord A polls - it is a weakness.
Colne Valley, High Peak and Rochester could go either way.
But I'm hopeful for Kelly, if the party works hard.
I'm definitely going to spend Election Day in Rochester knocking up the voters.
But Vox Populi, Vox Dei
This is an election. Elections are about emotion, not intellect. And it's politics. Politics is dirty. This looks like rather an effective poster from where I'm standing. The agency ain't going to lose any accounts over this one.
LAB haven't got the sense to take the fight to the SNP (advice to LAB HQ if you're reading: send some heavyweights north of the border, right now!). But CON obviously have.
My prediction is a CON plurality and another CON-LD coalition.
Next most likely result: a CON majority.
Next: a CON-SNP deal, doubtless spun as something completely different from a coalition, 'pact', 'S&C', etc., but a deal nonetheless.
The English question looms. In the third scenario above, it will have to be raised in a big way; there will hardly be any choice. In the other two scenarios, CON will probably raise it. Why? Because it's in their interests, and the sad reality is that LAB missed their chance. (I am a LAB member, by the way.)
(sorry - originally posted this in the wrong thread)
"Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal."
There's no way of reading todays statement by Clegg other than he will only enter into a coalition with the Tories. For it to be otherwise Labour would have to have some control over the SNP which clearly they haven't got.
I imagine Labour supporters are flooding Sheffield
The SNP are the best thing that ever happened to the Tory party.
Here's why:
- in Scotland, they're taking all the LAB seats
- in England, they're allowing CON (and even LD) to scare people into changing their voting intention away from LAB to CON (or even LD)
Bold!
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/bristol-west/winning-party
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2007/oct/24/1
The Conservative solution is not good enough. We need an English Parliament. However, the Conservatives are at least recognising there's a problem, and their measure is a step in the right direction.
The Tories might be worth a punt at 5/1 with Hills for Thurrock. They're not too far away on this poll. Ed Miliband scores also joint last on the choice of PM question under "dissatisfied and prefer Miliband".
If the UKIP vote is squeezed in their favour, or it doesn't turn out whilst the Tories do, they might squeak it.
Like the old graffiti - "I used to think I was indecisive but now I'm not so sure."
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/nozx6j63ly/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-240415.pdf
Edited extra bit: hmm. Some suggestion it was a few days ago, but my point stands.
There is no political strategy Labour could use to stop their imminent wipe out in Scotland. The Shadow Foreign Secretary is about to be gutted by a 20 year old student purely because he is Labour and she is SNP.
Labour already called in the big guns they have available. Most would be toxic - Miliband and Balls would only lower their vote. They sent Murphy north and he's about to be slaughtered. They called up Gordon Brown and he's being laughed at.
Nothing Labour can do will change what is happening.
There's another very good result for the Conservatives in the Bristol/Somerset area. Perhaps Yeovil really is in danger.
They'll be pleased to be ahead in Rochester, and in with a shout in Thurrock. I guess they'd rather lose Thurrock to UKIP than Labour, as it denies Labour their number 3 target seat.
Rochester and Thurrock still both achievable for UKIP I see. I had no idea Labour were so close in Thurrock last time, they really should be winning a seat like that given the UKIP surge, surely? Part of me wonders if Clegg, who is clearly a glutton for punishment at times, is not only trying to seem more appealing to Tories to gain their tacticals in his own seat, but futilely trying to single handedly keep Lab resources away from other LD seats by getting them to focus even more on trying to decapitate him than was already the case.
On a more serious note, I agree. However, it's worth noting a willing soul's worth three pressed men, so it's not all bad.
For that matter, the Conservatives have a keen interest in protecting their right flank for the longer term.
It's a way of stopping more Con MPs defecting to UKIP in the future.
> Labour ahead in 43 seats
> Labour tied with the Tories in 4 seats
> Tories holding 20 seats
> UKIP taking 1 seat (Thurrock)
> 8 seats unpolled (Peterborough, Stafford, Stourbridge, Aberconwy, Ilford North, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Brigg & Goole and Battersea)
Of the 43 seats in which Labour has a lead, their lead is 5% or less in 16 of those seats.
Of the 20 seats in which the Tories have a lead, their lead is 5% or less in 11 of those seats.
8.5 NW City of Chester
7.5 NW Crewe and Nantwich
7.0 GL Finchley and Golders Green
7.0 SW Bristol W (Lib Dem Seat)
6.0 SE Milton Keynes South
5.5 GL Harrow East
5.5 NW Wirral west
5.0 EM Nuneaton
5.0 GL Croydon Central
5.0 SE Hove
5.0 NW Rossendale and Darwen
5.0 NW South Ribble
4.7 YOUGOV UNS last night
4.5 YH Colne Valley
4.0 NW Morecambe and Lunesdale
4.0 SE Rochester ad Strood
4.0 SW South Swindon
3.5 SE Southampton Itchen
3.5 EM High Peak
3.5 YH Cleethorpes
3.0 NE Stockton South
3.0 WM Dudley South
3.0 WM Halesowen
2.0 NW Pendle
1.5 YH Pudsey
1.5 SW Bristol NW
1.0 SE Dover
0.5 EE Harlow
0.5 EE Thurrock
0.5 EM Loughborough
0.5 NW Blackpool North
0.5 SW Gloucester
0.5 SW Worcester
-2.0 SW Kingswood
-3.5 SW NE Somerset
But in Times visits to Rossindale & Darwin and Norwich N, Tory attempts to plant seed of doubt about SNP v successful http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4422058.ece …
It's working...
You are using figures from the 2010 polls when the Tories had a 7 point lead, you need to update your calculations with 2015 poll results.
Or are you just sponsored by the Daily Mail?
There's no point in ignoring it! It ain't 2010 anymore
The reason this is so damaging is that it plays on SNP strengths and exuberance, and Miliband's character. Will he really stand up to the SNP?
The SNP have set it up for the Tories first by ruling out a coalition, and then by crying foul when Tories address the issue. Yesterday after EVEL was brought up by Cameron Sturgeon was on the news saying it shouldn't happen. How does that play in average English household. SNP want the benefits of devolution but want to deny England fairness.
If the Tories win all the seats Ashcroft shows a small Labour lead of <5% in - i.e. confine losses to Labour to just 27 seats - and just drop Thurrock, South Thanet and Clacton to UKIP. Then they have 30 losses to make up.
A dozen gains from the Lib Dems would get them back up to 288 seats.
But even on that (relatively good) performance, that's probably still about six seats short of remaining in government.
Still, I doubt any would be as quick as that French MEP who quit the FN only a couple of days after the Euros.
And then I checked the Lab target list for High Peak and Colne valley(69 and 77).
If Lab`s that close in these seats,it does show what Con are up against.
Best bowled before they reach one-hundred, me-thinks,
From local election results it was already clear Labour was struggling in Bristol NW. High Peak and Colne Valley are what they should be given the national picture: close fights.
In Thurrock UKIP is taking votes from both Con and Lab. Again we knew it from previous polling and local results.
Con will be relived they are ahead in Rochester but Reckless in still in contention to hold it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_by-election_records#Shortest-serving_by-election_victors
If you don't count him on the basis that he didn't (and couldn't) take up his seat then it's the 46 days of Henry Compton in 1905. The post-war record, Sands excluded, is 57 days.
No Lib Dem incumbent. In an area of Tory strength, and the type of posh spa town the Tories did so unexpectedly well in during GE2010 - e.g. Winchester and Harrogate.
"Part of me wonders if Clegg, who is clearly a glutton for punishment at times, is not only trying to seem more appealing to Tories to gain their tacticals in his own seat, but futilely trying to single handedly keep Lab resources away from other LD seats by getting them to focus even more on trying to decapitate him than was already the case."
If the Labour manifesto of 1983 was 'the longest suicide note in history' Clegg's message this morning was the shortest.
The Tories must try and limit their losses to Labour to 20 or less, and aim for a dozen gains or more from the Liberal Democrats. They must confine their UKIP losses to no more than 3-4.
15 existing Tory seats are write-offs to Labour. Labour will pick up between 15-40 seats from the Tories IMHO, my current best guess would be around the 30 mark.
Cameron seems destined to lead the party to results which are actually pretty good in many ways, just not quite good enough.
Reasonable Thurrock poll, again Ukip much further ahead on raw data.
Surprised Bown doesn't commission polls in those seats as Ukip would be miles ahead w Survation in all if them
I wonder whether the likes of Simon Hughes will hold in Southwark.
There are about 15 Lib defences from Lab and it does look like 10 Lab gains certain.
Don;t add up to me. Unless that is the labour poll score is too high with everybody but dear old survation, which painted a picture of a party in meltdown.
Is there really an appetite for radical left of centre politics in the reasonably prosperous swing seats we are talking about??? I very much doubt it.
But then the miracles of modern medicine intervened to ensure a "permanent" retirement wasn't enforced.
The Tory campaign is disgustingly anti-Scottish not just anti-SNP/Lab. No self-respecting Scot of any political persasion regards it with anything other than total contempt eg Alex Massie in the Spectator. It will finish the panda argument on no of Tories in Scotland in favour of the pandas.
Is it working south of the border? I would say not because on the burden of the evidence the poll position is basically unchanged despite Labour's inept campaign and indeed Farage's surprising under the weather performance which should have flattened UKIP but basically hasn't.
What it does tell you is that a Prime Minister who leaves his campaign totally in the hands of an Australian attack dog is not fit to be Prime Minister and in two to three weeks time will, in all probability, not be.
That gets Labour to.. 285 seats. And that assumes they hold on to double-figures in Scotland.
I find it very hard to see how they get into the 300's on these figures and swings.
Assume 3 Conservative losses to UKIP, and 14 or so gains from the Lib Dems. 8 Labour gains from the Lib Dems, and 30 losses to SNP, and 1 to UKIP. That would give 278 Con to 274 Lab.
Rogerdamus has pronounced that it is a terrible idea for the Tories to highlight the consequences of an SNP/Labour a££iance.......
Ed feared the SNP will insist SLAB is being abandoned and Labour was "giving up" on Scotland.
As we can see, Tories heard of the idea and grabbed it.
They are both centrist social democrats.
Indeed. But think about why. Would you be hitting websites and watching TV programmes if it were a foregone conclusion?
The media kind of needs it to be close and dramatic. And there's an added bonus. If the result is not like the polls then there's all those 'this is what swung it' analyses to read.
The tories are at best 2/1 for that seat. Pretty measly odds for a party that has no chance.