Channel 4 was reporting yesterday that a "Tory source" told them Itchen is considered out of reach now. Their hope of a Con gain from Lab are now Halifax and Birmingham Northfield.
Did Lotd Ashcroft have the Bristol West poll before writing "but is in fact the Lib Dems who are doing best in the marginals". I thought they were value at evens in Torbay & Cornwall North on the back of that comment- not so sure now.
Thurrock and Rochester - UKIP doing well, taking votes from Lab.
Bristol NW and Bristol W - collapse of LD vote. In Bristol NW, LDs going equally to Con and Lab. In Bristol W, LDs going Green.
Colne V and High Peak are the only "normal" Con/Lab marginals. All MOE but I detect a small move from UKIP to Con in these seats reducing the Con->Lab swing.
I'm assuming the UKIP vote is hardening where UKIP has a chance and softening to Con where it has no chance.
Updating my model and incorporating these latest polls gives:
Con start with 307 gain 11 from LD lose 42 to Lab lose 3 to UKIP lose 1 to SNP end with 272 ... Con/LD is 298
Lab start with 258 gain 10 from LD gain 42 from Con lose 40 to SNP end with 270 ... Lab/SNP is 327
Political Better Mike Smithson knows Jack W's true identity, and the Backbencher has an idea herself. He was fairly well known in political life. But neither of us is telling.
"But neither of us is telling"...?
Enoch must be spinning! May I suggest that the Grauniad learn English!
# 'Neither I - nor Mr Smithson - will be telling.', # 'Yet neither of us will tell.' # 'So, neither one of us will tell!'
Just shows how low-quality the meejah are at reporting....
jokeW is senile (but not related to our, very own Marque from Sussex).
Taking the most recent Ashcroft constituency poll in each, my count of the top 76 Labour-Tory marginals shows the following overall picture:
> Labour ahead in 43 seats > Labour tied with the Tories in 4 seats > Tories holding 20 seats > UKIP taking 1 seat (Thurrock) > 8 seats unpolled (Peterborough, Stafford, Stourbridge, Aberconwy, Ilford North, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Brigg & Goole and Battersea)
Of the 43 seats in which Labour has a lead, their lead is 5% or less in 16 of those seats.
Of the 20 seats in which the Tories have a lead, their lead is 5% or less in 11 of those seats.
Ashcroft by elections 2014.
All seats were polled within the last 14 days of the election date. All seats registered a smaller Lab-Con differential in the Tories favour at the election when compared to the final poll.
2.4% Heywood and Middleton 2.4% Rochester and Strood 5.2% Clacton 5.3% Newark 6.2% Wythenshawe and Sale East
2-3 point leads for Labour at this stage are nowhere near enough in my view.
There are going to be Lab Gain seats with 8-9 point leads from last spring/summer that are right on the line now.
Yesterday they sent Yvette to Glasgow East to campaign for Curran
OK perhaps I was slightly wrong.
They could do things marginally better, for example if Cooper had campaigned in Edinburgh South or Dumfries and Galloway. However, she never made the TV coverage on either STV or BBC Scotland.
Responding to the Salmond the pickpocket image, Twitterers are showing a combination of intellectual criticism and protestations of "ooh, how dirty!"
This is an election. Elections are about emotion, not intellect. And it's politics. Politics is dirty. This looks like rather an effective poster from where I'm standing. The agency ain't going to lose any accounts over this one.
LAB haven't got the sense to take the fight to the SNP (advice to LAB HQ if you're reading: send some heavyweights north of the border, right now!). But CON obviously have.
My prediction is a CON plurality and another CON-LD coalition. Next most likely result: a CON majority. Next: a CON-SNP deal, doubtless spun as something completely different from a coalition, 'pact', 'S&C', etc., but a deal nonetheless.
The English question looms. In the third scenario above, it will have to be raised in a big way; there will hardly be any choice. In the other two scenarios, CON will probably raise it. Why? Because it's in their interests, and the sad reality is that LAB missed their chance. (I am a LAB member, by the way.)
You keep posting this nonsense about how Labour should be doing more and doing better against the SNP.
There is no political strategy Labour could use to stop their imminent wipe out in Scotland. The Shadow Foreign Secretary is about to be gutted by a 20 year old student purely because he is Labour and she is SNP.
Labour already called in the big guns they have available. Most would be toxic - Miliband and Balls would only lower their vote. They sent Murphy north and he's about to be slaughtered. They called up Gordon Brown and he's being laughed at.
Nothing Labour can do will change what is happening.
A good move by Yvette as that left honest Vern to front the foreign policy speech of Miliband in media interviews. Vern's interview with Andrew Neil was labelled by Isabel Oakshott as one of the worst crashes she had ever seen.
Well I think this puts Clegg's comments in context - see them as a campaigning tool. LDs are writing off their Labour seats and hoping it helps them to hold the Con ones.
can I just check with isam how much i've got on kelly in rochester and at what price ... i think I know (£100 at 11/10) but it's missing from my notes for my other bets with you (£50 4x KIP/Lib, £50 Tory <6.5% behind Farage)
Well I think this puts Clegg's comments in context - see them as a campaigning tool. LDs are writing off their Labour seats and hoping it helps them to hold the Con ones.
Yesterday they sent Yvette to Glasgow East to campaign for Curran
OK perhaps I was slightly wrong.
They could do things marginally better, for example if Cooper had campaigned in Edinburgh South or Dumfries and Galloway. However, she never made the TV coverage on either STV or BBC Scotland.
What Labour needs is a poll showing they are making a comeback in Scotland!
Maybe they could spend some money to do some push-polling like Jo Swinton.
Well sure, but its not like her polling will save her seat at all, so I don't know that Labour commissioning some friendly polling would have much use.
If the Lab position does recover in Scotland even slightly though, they are looking at a very good night - it's only the collapse there preventing a majority (albeit a very slim one), and it'll only take a few points here and there to save several seats.
Well well v gd Tory polls from Ashcroft. They'll be cockahoop over this set & which make no sense of the national E&W swing until I guess you factor the LDs? For them this pollings horrendous.
Thurrock & Rochester both too close to call. Guess tories would give up Thurrock to see Reckless given the boot.
I'm guessing the mostly geriatric ukip vote has been factored into polling? I mean that the crumblies out vote us yoofs? Otherwise they could do better than expected.
Yesterday had a call from the CEO of a French-based Euro38billion global company whose non-French business is growing rapidly. Wanted the know what the result of the UKGE would be as they are thinking of moving their HQ to London. After much conversation they will decide after May 7. If the Cons win, they will come to London, if EdM is PM they will look elsewhere.
Also had a drinks yesterday evening with former colleagues where one speculated whether the late Ralph Miliband was a 'sleeper' and ever became active and whether such 'talents' had been passed to his progeny?
I just think with all the focus on Scotland were missing the biggest game changer of all which is wipeout of Liberal Democrats. I predict they will be left with under 20 seats & probably less than 15. Those 40+ seats are as many as the SNP. Many will go tory, some labour.
Yesterday they sent Yvette to Glasgow East to campaign for Curran
OK perhaps I was slightly wrong.
They could do things marginally better, for example if Cooper had campaigned in Edinburgh South or Dumfries and Galloway. However, she never made the TV coverage on either STV or BBC Scotland.
Ah well it was overshadowed by Ruth Davidson feeding a Solero to Jamie Ross of Buzzfeed.
Yesterday had a call from the CEO of a French-based Euro38billion global company whose non-French business is growing rapidly. Wanted the know what the result of the UKGE would be as they are thinking of moving their HQ to London. After much conversation they will decide after May 7. If the Cons win, they will come to London, if EdM is PM they will look elsewhere.
Also had a drinks yesterday evening with former colleagues where one speculated whether the late Ralph Miliband was a 'sleeper' and ever became active and whether such 'talents' had been passed to his progeny?
I love your anecdotes Financier. The have become an instant go to feature of pbCOM.
Well I think this puts Clegg's comments in context - see them as a campaigning tool. LDs are writing off their Labour seats and hoping it helps them to hold the Con ones.
I think it is probably more of a campaigning tool within his own party to pre-empt discussion between his surviving MPs on post election coalition strategy. I don't think he will succeed. War will break out within the LDs on May 8th.
can I just check with isam how much i've got on kelly in rochester and at what price ... i think I know (£100 at 11/10) but it's missing from my notes for my other bets with you (£50 4x KIP/Lib, £50 Tory
That's what I've got , do you want my bank details?
Rochester is Tory heartland. If you're going to defect to another party, you better be a popular local candidate. I never thought Reckless would retain.
I think a 3% deficit in a constituency poll two weeks before polling day doesn't exactly prove that Reckless is going to lose.
Andrew Marr's twitter theory on what Nick Clegg is doing:
Nick Clegg 's "no, no, no" to any deal with labour in FT very big election news – someone in Tory HQ deserves a bonus…
Why, because it's only partly payback for labour's decapitation strategy in Sheffield Hallam…
More important is Tory targeting in LibDem seats, warning of SNP – labour deal…spooking LD voters, hence forcing Clegg's hand...
Very clever Tory tactics. Losers? Apart from labour, left-wing Lib Dems and right wing Tories...
Any way, it changes the terms of trade. Hope this makes sense… Haven't yet learned how to number my tweets!
No, he hasn't quite ruled out any deal with labour – but it's the tone, the language… Labour now needs the Liberal Democrats to split.
Nick Clegg is clearly in the pocket of Osborne and Lynton. As I said before, I think it'll be better for Nick to lose Sheffield so he can come out properly as a Tory. Living this most obvious lie must be very tough for him. Kind of similar to when Elton John married a woman.
Well I think this puts Clegg's comments in context - see them as a campaigning tool. LDs are writing off their Labour seats and hoping it helps them to hold the Con ones.
I think it is probably more of a campaigning tool within his own party to pre-empt discussion between his surviving MPs on post election coalition strategy. I don't think he will succeed. War will break out within the LDs on May 8th.
If you had 20 MPs [lets be generous] & you were offered to continue in government with the tories & all the trappings of power to include deputy prime minister of Great Britain and other cabinet posts you really think they'd turn it down?
Of course the LDs will go into coalition with the tories if that can swing them across the line. But if and only if Nick Clegg is reelected.
To me the value at the moment looks like Con largest party.
Unionism does get pretty desperate. Although given nationalism lost last year and still its adherents act as though they'd won, the desperation of one side is matched by delusion on the other. Granted the SNP landslide shows which side is on the up and has momentum though.
My postal vote arrived this morning and has been returned already. Suspect that this is starting to be replicated across the country from this weekend.
My postal vote arrived this morning and has been returned already. Suspect that this is starting to be replicated across the country from this weekend.
Still waiting on mine, if it doesn't arrive by Monday, I fear I may not be able to vote (unless I fly back on election eve!)
The only obvious difference from the norm in these polls is the complete humiliation of the Lib Dems
Roger- the fact that Labour are getting within touching distance of seats like Colne Valley and High Peak means this could be a very good night indeed for Labour- this is close to a 5% swing, and brings Labour into the 300's if they get these.
That is not the case.
Well if you round up one swing and ignore the other it's 5%.
If we are generous, and limit Labour's losses in Scotland to just 30 seats, then they start (nominally) on 228 seats. If they took every single seat Ashcroft's constituency polls suggest, and the ties, then they'd take 47 seats from the Tories. Let's also assume they take a further 10 from the Liberal Democrats.
That gets Labour to.. 285 seats. And that assumes they hold on to double-figures in Scotland.
I find it very hard to see how they get into the 300's on these figures and swings.
You can still back NOM at 1.13 on Betfair this morning. It looks like value to me even at that price.
Agreed. However, I've played out that market, and I've now got to an all-green position with NOM at +£645, Con Maj at +£4 and Lab Maj at + £120.
I don't intend to put any more on. Partly out of boredom, and partly because I think there might be one or two better constituency bets still out there.
Zeichner (Lab candidate in Cambridge) was a curious choice.
He failed last time, and took Labour into 3rd place. He is a 60 year old trade union official. I don’t think he appeals much, except to the absolutely committed (hence, no doubt, Nick Palmer repeatedly tipping him). Labour is already the oldest party (in terms of age of MPs), and the choice of a large number of retreads (like Zeichner) this time surprises me.
Huppert is younger and more personable.
He has a chunky Tory vote to squeeze, and a gaffe-prone Tory candidate against him.
He may produce the best result of the night for the LibDems.
Not that it will happen of course, but were we to have a realignment in British politics, I wonder how things would shake up.
The Cameroons and Orange Bookers could join forces to be the Progressive Conservatives, around 215-2500 seats. The Tory right and UKIP could join forces to be the National Conservatives, around 40-75 seats. The Social Democrats and most of Labour to join forces and be Labour (its what the social dems want anyway), around 280-300 seats. The Green-PC-SNP-Hard left of Labour to be the SNP friends club, featuring others, or the Nationalist Labour Alliance. 50-75 seats
SLAB, SCON and SLD to ignore their impossible to unify aims to become the Scottish Unionist Party. 5-10 seats,
A sprinkling of New Labourites to go around each of the above.
Taking the most recent Ashcroft constituency poll in each, my count of the top 76 Labour-Tory marginals shows the following overall picture:
> Labour ahead in 43 seats > Labour tied with the Tories in 4 seats > Tories holding 20 seats > UKIP taking 1 seat (Thurrock) > 8 seats unpolled (Peterborough, Stafford, Stourbridge, Aberconwy, Ilford North, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Brigg & Goole and Battersea)
Of the 43 seats in which Labour has a lead, their lead is 5% or less in 16 of those seats.
Of the 20 seats in which the Tories have a lead, their lead is 5% or less in 11 of those seats.
Ashcroft by elections 2014.
All seats were polled within the last 14 days of the election date. All seats registered a smaller Lab-Con differential in the Tories favour at the election when compared to the final poll.
2.4% Heywood and Middleton 2.4% Rochester and Strood 5.2% Clacton 5.3% Newark 6.2% Wythenshawe and Sale East
2-3 point leads for Labour at this stage are nowhere near enough in my view.
There are going to be Lab Gain seats with 8-9 point leads from last spring/summer that are right on the line now.
I'm not quite that optimistic (I think it's the 4-5 point Labour leads that might be on the line) but the MoE of these polls is significant and so many things can change, not least of all turnout on the day.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st April Projection) :
Con 304 (+1) .. Lab 249 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (+1) .. SNP 40 (NC) .. PC 3 (+1) .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (+1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - TCTC Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 21 Apr - No Change.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
#TeamCon edging back with ARSE and some encouraging polling from The Good Lord Amen.
Maybe he is colour-blind (unlike our leftist-race-aware-asians-for-labour). If the kit fits....
I guess in Midlands he is a Brummie and when he comes to London,he becomes a Cockney.
Will we have a Tory manifesto for Westham fans?
My second team is Fenerbache: The story you will like!
As a kid in Brockley my father (or was it my grandmother) bought me a kit. It was yellow-and-blue stripes (but I did not like it). One of my elder sisters took ownership. [Action-man was refused as it was a doll: This was 1973.]
In the Naughties I bought a cheap clone of the Fenerbache kit; all out of reverance to my late-father (despite his sins). It is a team that I will support though will never see. A kind-of culture comply-blanckie.
Well I think this puts Clegg's comments in context - see them as a campaigning tool. LDs are writing off their Labour seats and hoping it helps them to hold the Con ones.
I think it is probably more of a campaigning tool within his own party to pre-empt discussion between his surviving MPs on post election coalition strategy. I don't think he will succeed. War will break out within the LDs on May 8th.
If you had 20 MPs [lets be generous] & you were offered to continue in government with the tories & all the trappings of power to include deputy prime minister of Great Britain and other cabinet posts you really think they'd turn it down?
Of course the LDs will go into coalition with the tories if that can swing them across the line. But if and only if Nick Clegg is reelected.
To me the value at the moment looks like Con largest party.
How many of the 20 would have the "trappings of power"? Two? Clegg and Laws? What do think the other 18 will feel?
Just had a leaflet in from Stephen Kerr, the Tory candidate for Stirling making a very direct plea for tactical votes to stop the SNP. Unfortunately other Stirling Tories are already indicating they will be voting tactically for SLAB;
Yesterday had a call from the CEO of a French-based Euro38billion global company whose non-French business is growing rapidly. Wanted the know what the result of the UKGE would be as they are thinking of moving their HQ to London. After much conversation they will decide after May 7. If the Cons win, they will come to London, if EdM is PM they will look elsewhere.
Also had a drinks yesterday evening with former colleagues where one speculated whether the late Ralph Miliband was a 'sleeper' and ever became active and whether such 'talents' had been passed to his progeny?
Do you ever get any actual work done? You seem to spend your entire time chatting to people who are in the middle of planning whether to base themselves in the UK or not and happen to be incredibly sensitive to minor political differences.
Well I think this puts Clegg's comments in context - see them as a campaigning tool. LDs are writing off their Labour seats and hoping it helps them to hold the Con ones.
I think it is probably more of a campaigning tool within his own party to pre-empt discussion between his surviving MPs on post election coalition strategy. I don't think he will succeed. War will break out within the LDs on May 8th.
If you had 20 MPs [lets be generous] & you were offered to continue in government with the tories & all the trappings of power to include deputy prime minister of Great Britain and other cabinet posts you really think they'd turn it down?
Of course the LDs will go into coalition with the tories if that can swing them across the line. But if and only if Nick Clegg is reelected.
To me the value at the moment looks like Con largest party.
How many of the 20 would have the "trappings of power"? Two? Clegg and Laws? What do think the other 18 will feel?
Aren't about half of LDs in government positions at the moment? I imagine a similar ratio would be adopted.
Well I think this puts Clegg's comments in context - see them as a campaigning tool. LDs are writing off their Labour seats and hoping it helps them to hold the Con ones.
I think it is probably more of a campaigning tool within his own party to pre-empt discussion between his surviving MPs on post election coalition strategy. I don't think he will succeed. War will break out within the LDs on May 8th.
If you had 20 MPs [lets be generous] & you were offered to continue in government with the tories & all the trappings of power to include deputy prime minister of Great Britain and other cabinet posts you really think they'd turn it down?
Of course the LDs will go into coalition with the tories if that can swing them across the line. But if and only if Nick Clegg is reelected.
To me the value at the moment looks like Con largest party.
How many of the 20 would have the "trappings of power"? Two? Clegg and Laws? What do think the other 18 will feel?
Surely, the remaining LibDem voters are more right-wing. The centre of gravity of the party (at least in terms of voters) has moved rightwards.
So, I think the LibDems would be foolish to enter a coalition with Labour, as it will destroy what little remains. They need a period of re-building -- not a period of alienating their remaining voters.
I strongly suspect the LibDems will not enter a coalition with anyone, merely offering C & S to whatever can be cobbled together after May.
Just had a leaflet in from Stephen Kerr, the Tory candidate for Stirling making a very direct plea for tactical votes to stop the SNP. Unfortunately other Stirling Tories are already indicating they will be voting tactically for SLAB;
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 21st April Projection) :
Con 304 (+1) .. Lab 249 (-4) .. LibDem 30 (+1) .. SNP 40 (NC) .. PC 3 (+1) .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (+1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 22 seats short of a majority
Turnout Projection .. 67.5% (+0.5)
Current status of potential Egg-on-Face / Lifelong Embarrassment Factor (EOFLEF for short) in terms of OGH's & JackW's respective assessments of the GE outcome: EXTREME.
"Clegg's is the seat I want Labour to win most in the country. Then he can come out and join the Tories properly instead of masquerading with this ridiculous charade of pretending to be a liberal."
There's no way of reading todays statement by Clegg other than he will only enter into a coalition with the Tories. For it to be otherwise Labour would have to have some control over the SNP which clearly they haven't got.
I imagine Labour supporters are flooding Sheffield
I don't think that's right - if Lab+LD was viable he'd still be up for that, no? Obviously in those circumstances Ed Miliband would have the option of dispensing with LD and just working with the SNP, but a coalition with the LibDems would sound more stable than a minority government dependent on the SNP.
"A 1997-style bloodbath of MPs is expected on May 7, after the expenses watchdog forecast as many as 145 MPs could lose their seats in a rout that will cost taxpayers £18m. Winding up deposed and retiring MPs’ offices will cost the taxpayer as much £18.4 million, the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority, which regulates MPs’ costs, expects."
Yesterday had a call from the CEO of a French-based Euro38billion global company whose non-French business is growing rapidly. Wanted the know what the result of the UKGE would be as they are thinking of moving their HQ to London. After much conversation they will decide after May 7. If the Cons win, they will come to London, if EdM is PM they will look elsewhere.
Also had a drinks yesterday evening with former colleagues where one speculated whether the late Ralph Miliband was a 'sleeper' and ever became active and whether such 'talents' had been passed to his progeny?
Do you ever get any actual work done? You seem to spend your entire time chatting to people who are in the middle of planning whether to base themselves in the UK or not and happen to be incredibly sensitive to minor political differences.
Management is as mangement does: Some are good; most indifferent.
Corellation cannot be equated to causation: Otherwise people would be writing doctorates based upon the politicalbetting.vanillaforms.com@id (mine is 42), the number of posts to said address (and this should be 1770?) and - finally - their own perspective and - full-frontal - questioning of those that they disagree with!
I think Nick Clegg has just sounded the last post for the remaining Libs in Scotland.
I'm not even sure that Orkney and Shetland is safe on what seems an explicitly pro-Tory coalition position.
His position won't help in Con/LD marginals as it will put off Lab tactical voters. Vote LD, get Tory. LDs might lose a few Con/LD marginal seats because of this.
His position might help in Lab/LD marginals if it encourages Con tactical voting for LD. Looking at the close Lab/LD marginals there is only one where in practice this might help - Sheffield Hallam. (Perhaps Birmingham Yardley). Looks very selfish to me.
Yesterday had a call from the CEO of a French-based Euro38billion global company whose non-French business is growing rapidly. Wanted the know what the result of the UKGE would be as they are thinking of moving their HQ to London. After much conversation they will decide after May 7. If the Cons win, they will come to London, if EdM is PM they will look elsewhere.
Also had a drinks yesterday evening with former colleagues where one speculated whether the late Ralph Miliband was a 'sleeper' and ever became active and whether such 'talents' had been passed to his progeny?
Do you ever get any actual work done? You seem to spend your entire time chatting to people who are in the middle of planning whether to base themselves in the UK or not and happen to be incredibly sensitive to minor political differences.
Just had a leaflet in from Stephen Kerr, the Tory candidate for Stirling making a very direct plea for tactical votes to stop the SNP. Unfortunately other Stirling Tories are already indicating they will be voting tactically for SLAB;
These guys need to get their act together, Chris seems to think that David Cameron is on-side with him voting for SLAB !!
Lolz
'However the SNP now holds the seat at Holyrood and at this general election, given the national trend, it is a certainty that Stirling will elect either a Labour or Nationalist MP. While I’d like to see Cameron carry on as PM for another term, I don’t want to end up with a separatist as my representative at Westminster. Therefore I’m voting Labour. My question to him, during an interview for Saturday’s Scottish Daily Mail, was this: am I doing the wrong thing?
He looked thoughtful, and for one wonderful moment I thought he was going to high-five me, praise my political acuity and tell me to crack on. Sadly, he went with the predictable line: '‘I’m telling Conservatives all over Scotland, vote for what you value, vote for the team you support and that team is the Conservative Party"'
..err West Ham...no, SLab...wait, Stirling United, that's it!
Given the way the UKIP vote has held steady in Thurrock, I wonder if Ashcroft would find the same if he re-polled Plymouth Moor View, Grimsby, Dudley North. Certainly, his focus group in Moor View sounded good for UKIP.
Just had a leaflet in from Stephen Kerr, the Tory candidate for Stirling making a very direct plea for tactical votes to stop the SNP. Unfortunately other Stirling Tories are already indicating they will be voting tactically for SLAB;
These guys need to get their act together, Chris seems to think that David Cameron is on-side with him voting for SLAB !!
Not to mention Ruth Davidson, who doesn't like tactical voting away from the SCUP!
Well without having made some sort of arrangement well in advance - and the suddenness of the noticing of the SNP rise made that impossible even if one ignored that there was little inclination for it - the leaderships cannot officially approve of that sort of thing of course.
Labour is already the oldest party (in terms of age of MPs), and the choice of a large number of retreads (like Zeichner) this time surprises me.
At least 8 of the new candidates replacing Labour retiring MPs are also over 50
St Helens South candidate is already over 65 Women selected in Blackburn, Neath and Coventry NE are around 60 Swansea East candidate is in mid 50 and Bristol South's one is 51. The chap replacing Blunkett in Sheffield is likely to be at least in the 55-60 range given he was a NUM rep during the miner strike. Same for new candidate in Bootle considering he was already a Cllr in 1981.
In many of these cases it's the CLP going for the "senior Cllr" route (St Helens South, Blackburn, Coventry NE, Sheffield Brightside and Bootle; 2 were sitting Council Leaders, 1 was the Deputy Council Leader and 1 a former Council leader).
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep) 25/04/2015 09:43 Expecting a clarification from No10 soon that in fact the PM supports the West Hampstead Villains... One for @usasoccerguy
I think Nick Clegg has just sounded the last post for the remaining Libs in Scotland.
I'm not even sure that Orkney and Shetland is safe on what seems an explicitly pro-Tory coalition position.
His position won't help in Con/LD marginals as it will put off Lab tactical voters. Vote LD, get Tory. LDs might lose a few Con/LD marginal seats because of this.
His position might help in Lab/LD marginals if it encourages Con tactical voting for LD. Looking at the close Lab/LD marginals there is only one where in practice this might help - Sheffield Hallam. (Perhaps Birmingham Yardley). Looks very selfish to me.
It was interesting to compare this to Sir Bob Russell's unequivocal statement on BBC Look East last night: "Regrettably, David Cameron today has set one nation against another. That is not the role of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. I think David Cameron is no longer fit to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom." (http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b05qv0rc/look-east-east-24042015 - about 3.15 in)
I know that Bob probably qualifies as a member of the Lib Dem's own "awkward squad" (and his main competition comes from the Tories), but in a much shrunken Lib Dem parliamentary party this sort of view becomes more problematic.
I'm not at all sure that the remaining Lib Dems will agree with each other enough to go into coalition with any party at all, without fatally damaging their own party.
I understand from a friend who is pretty senior in the Tory party they are expecting to lose about 40 to Labour;5 to UKIP (he wouldnt say which) and gain 12-15 from Lib Dems.
Well I think this puts Clegg's comments in context - see them as a campaigning tool. LDs are writing off their Labour seats and hoping it helps them to hold the Con ones.
I think it is probably more of a campaigning tool within his own party to pre-empt discussion between his surviving MPs on post election coalition strategy. I don't think he will succeed. War will break out within the LDs on May 8th.
If you had 20 MPs [lets be generous] & you were offered to continue in government with the tories & all the trappings of power to include deputy prime minister of Great Britain and other cabinet posts you really think they'd turn it down?
Of course the LDs will go into coalition with the tories if that can swing them across the line. But if and only if Nick Clegg is reelected.
To me the value at the moment looks like Con largest party.
How many of the 20 would have the "trappings of power"? Two? Clegg and Laws? What do think the other 18 will feel?
Surely, the remaining LibDem voters are more right-wing. The centre of gravity of the party (at least in terms of voters) has moved rightwards.
So, I think the LibDems would be foolish to enter a coalition with Labour, as it will destroy what little remains. They need a period of re-building -- not a period of alienating their remaining voters.
I strongly suspect the LibDems will not enter a coalition with anyone, merely offering C & S to whatever can be cobbled together after May.
I agree with your last paragraph. They won't be in fit state to do anything else.
I also agree that the centre of gravity of the remaining LD voters has moved rightwards. But the ambition of the LDs should surely be to attract back those past supporters who are put off by the neo-liberal agenda of the current LD leadership? Why be content with a rump of 7 or 8% share as a Tory-Lite party?
The resurgence of the LDs can only happen if Clegg goes as leader and there is some form of cooperation with labour.
I have been an active member of the LDs (and Liberals) since 1983. I resigned in 2011, not because of the coalition which I supported, but by the decisions by Clegg on student fees/NHS reorganisation/deep cuts which were unnecessary and not what LDs stood for. I've recently rejoined so I can vote Clegg out next month.
Mr. Bede, I do wonder if Sir Bob actually means that or is expressing the view for electoral (or internal party political) reasons. If he really means it, it baffles me how people can consider a Scottish Parliament good, ever more powers for Scotland good, and a halfway step towards equality for England some kind of horrid nationalism.
Did a very detailed political YouGov earlier. VI, Constituency VI, impression of various Leaders/Chancellors; views on Scottish independence, views on whether my impression of the party leaders has changed during the election, which one (I though this was particularly interesting) seems to want to win the most, which would be funniest in the pub, on a date, and which would make me / the country better off, and which would be most likely to lead to Scottish independence.
I think Nick Clegg has just sounded the last post for the remaining Libs in Scotland.
I'm not even sure that Orkney and Shetland is safe on what seems an explicitly pro-Tory coalition position.
His position won't help in Con/LD marginals as it will put off Lab tactical voters. Vote LD, get Tory. LDs might lose a few Con/LD marginal seats because of this.
His position might help in Lab/LD marginals if it encourages Con tactical voting for LD. Looking at the close Lab/LD marginals there is only one where in practice this might help - Sheffield Hallam. (Perhaps Birmingham Yardley). Looks very selfish to me.
Yep, looks like some pre-emptive positioning from Clegg. He clearly wants to lose the Dem part of the LibDems and move back towards being the Liberal party. They won't come close to 50 seats again for a long time though. Their job now is to keep the more swivel-eyed of the Tories irrelevant.
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
"I don't think that's right - if Lab+LD was viable he'd still be up for that, no? Obviously in those circumstances Ed Miliband would have the option of dispensing with LD and just working with the SNP, but a coalition with the LibDems would sound more stable than a minority government dependent on the SNP."
But isn't it an odd position for a party who have made 'fair votes' their raison d'etre to say would have nothing to do with joining a government that was in any way beholden to a party that will (almost certainly) have considerably more seats than them?
Mr. Observer, bah. He may aspire to that but he's a long way from a liberal. There's nothing liberal about trying to bugger the electoral system for partisan advantage, or gum up the Lords with a deranged proposal, or dance ridiculously for and against a referendum on Lisbon and then EU membership, having a three-line whip abstention on the former and then voting against the latter after having it in the manifesto.
Labour is already the oldest party (in terms of age of MPs), and the choice of a large number of retreads (like Zeichner) this time surprises me.
At least 8 of the new candidates replacing Labour retiring MPs are also over 50
St Helens South candidate is already over 65 Women selected in Blackburn, Neath and Coventry NE are around 60 Swansea East candidate is in mid 50 and Bristol South's one is 51. The chap replacing Blunkett in Sheffield is likely to be at least in the 55-60 range given he was a NUM rep during the miner strike. Same for new candidate in Bootle considering he was already a Cllr in 1981.
In many of these cases it's the CLP going for the "senior Cllr" route (St Helens South, Blackburn, Coventry NE, Sheffield Brightside and Bootle; 2 were sitting Council Leaders, 1 was the Deputy Council Leader and 1 a former Council leader).
As an aside, I see that Blunkett was born in Jessop Hospital in Sheffield. Doing a little digging, it is named after Thomas Jessop was a Sheffield steelmaker, from a family of steelmakers. Since my moniker's family had interests in steelmaking (e.g. the Butterley Company) in the nearby area, I wonder if he was a branch of the same family? A quick search of Josias' family shows no link.
I defy any football fan to justify the 'brain fade' excuse
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
100% correct. No-one forgets what football team they support. A complete fake.
Comments
Thurrock and Rochester - UKIP doing well, taking votes from Lab.
Bristol NW and Bristol W - collapse of LD vote.
In Bristol NW, LDs going equally to Con and Lab. In Bristol W, LDs going Green.
Colne V and High Peak are the only "normal" Con/Lab marginals. All MOE but I detect a small move from UKIP to Con in these seats reducing the Con->Lab swing.
I'm assuming the UKIP vote is hardening where UKIP has a chance and softening to Con where it has no chance.
Updating my model and incorporating these latest polls gives:
Con start with 307
gain 11 from LD
lose 42 to Lab
lose 3 to UKIP
lose 1 to SNP
end with 272 ... Con/LD is 298
Lab start with 258
gain 10 from LD
gain 42 from Con
lose 40 to SNP
end with 270 ... Lab/SNP is 327
It's more likely cockup than conspiracy, IMO, but still very curious.
Has Ashcroft committed to publishing every poll that he commissions?
Enoch must be spinning! May I suggest that the Grauniad learn English! Just shows how low-quality the meejah are at reporting....
jokeW is senile (but not related to our, very own Marque from Sussex).
Maybe they could spend some money to do some push-polling like Jo Swinton.
All seats were polled within the last 14 days of the election date. All seats registered a smaller Lab-Con differential in the Tories favour at the election when compared to the final poll.
2.4% Heywood and Middleton
2.4% Rochester and Strood
5.2% Clacton
5.3% Newark
6.2% Wythenshawe and Sale East
2-3 point leads for Labour at this stage are nowhere near enough in my view.
There are going to be Lab Gain seats with 8-9 point leads from last spring/summer that are right on the line now.
They could do things marginally better, for example if Cooper had campaigned in Edinburgh South or Dumfries and Galloway. However, she never made the TV coverage on either STV or BBC Scotland.
For some unknown reason....
can I just check with isam how much i've got on kelly in rochester and at what price ... i think I know (£100 at 11/10) but it's missing from my notes for my other bets with you (£50 4x KIP/Lib, £50 Tory <6.5% behind Farage)
I think that's all of them.
I tend to agree
If the Lab position does recover in Scotland even slightly though, they are looking at a very good night - it's only the collapse there preventing a majority (albeit a very slim one), and it'll only take a few points here and there to save several seats.
Thurrock & Rochester both too close to call. Guess tories would give up Thurrock to see Reckless given the boot.
I'm guessing the mostly geriatric ukip vote has been factored into polling? I mean that the crumblies out vote us yoofs? Otherwise they could do better than expected.
Yesterday had a call from the CEO of a French-based Euro38billion global company whose non-French business is growing rapidly. Wanted the know what the result of the UKGE would be as they are thinking of moving their HQ to London. After much conversation they will decide after May 7. If the Cons win, they will come to London, if EdM is PM they will look elsewhere.
Also had a drinks yesterday evening with former colleagues where one speculated whether the late Ralph Miliband was a 'sleeper' and ever became active and whether such 'talents' had been passed to his progeny?
Ignore at you're betting peril.
I reckon there are a few newspapers that would like that story.
(MP`s titter when he stands up to speak).
#dollgate
Wow.
What a total fake!
ogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/watch-david-cameron-bizarrely-switches-his-football-allegiance-to-west-ham/
Nick Clegg 's "no, no, no" to any deal with labour in FT very big election news – someone in Tory HQ deserves a bonus…
Why, because it's only partly payback for labour's decapitation strategy in Sheffield Hallam…
More important is Tory targeting in LibDem seats, warning of SNP – labour deal…spooking LD voters, hence forcing Clegg's hand...
Very clever Tory tactics. Losers? Apart from labour, left-wing Lib Dems and right wing Tories...
Any way, it changes the terms of trade. Hope this makes sense… Haven't yet learned how to number my tweets!
No, he hasn't quite ruled out any deal with labour – but it's the tone, the language… Labour now needs the Liberal Democrats to split.
"I mean that the crumblies out vote us yoofs?"
Yay, we coffin-dodgers rule. Is that the correct yoof phrase?
It s a good point, though. Is age taken into account or is it assumed on certainty to vote?
Of course the LDs will go into coalition with the tories if that can swing them across the line. But if and only if Nick Clegg is reelected.
To me the value at the moment looks like Con largest party.
https://twitter.com/kdugdalemsp
Will we have a Tory manifesto for Westham fans?
I don't intend to put any more on. Partly out of boredom, and partly because I think there might be one or two better constituency bets still out there.
He failed last time, and took Labour into 3rd place. He is a 60 year old trade union official. I don’t think he appeals much, except to the absolutely committed (hence, no doubt, Nick Palmer repeatedly tipping him). Labour is already the oldest party (in terms of age of MPs), and the choice of a large number of retreads (like Zeichner) this time surprises me.
Huppert is younger and more personable.
He has a chunky Tory vote to squeeze, and a gaffe-prone Tory candidate against him.
He may produce the best result of the night for the LibDems.
The Cameroons and Orange Bookers could join forces to be the Progressive Conservatives, around 215-2500 seats.
The Tory right and UKIP could join forces to be the National Conservatives, around 40-75 seats.
The Social Democrats and most of Labour to join forces and be Labour (its what the social dems want anyway), around 280-300 seats.
The Green-PC-SNP-Hard left of Labour to be the SNP friends club, featuring others, or the Nationalist Labour Alliance. 50-75 seats
SLAB, SCON and SLD to ignore their impossible to unify aims to become the Scottish Unionist Party. 5-10 seats,
A sprinkling of New Labourites to go around each of the above.
As the one and only Kevin Keegan said; 'I'd love it if Nigel Clegg lost Sheffield Hallam,"...or words to that effect.
I'm not even sure that Orkney and Shetland is safe on what seems an explicitly pro-Tory coalition position.
So far so good.
As a kid in Brockley my father (or was it my grandmother) bought me a kit. It was yellow-and-blue stripes (but I did not like it). One of my elder sisters took ownership. [Action-man was refused as it was a doll: This was 1973.]
In the Naughties I bought a cheap clone of the Fenerbache kit; all out of reverance to my late-father (despite his sins). It is a team that I will support though will never see. A kind-of culture comply-blanckie.
:and-your-analysis-is:
https://medium.com/@chrisdeerin/why-i-will-vote-labour-b058b17e042f
These guys need to get their act together, Chris seems to think that David Cameron is on-side with him voting for SLAB !!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32459294
So, I think the LibDems would be foolish to enter a coalition with Labour, as it will destroy what little remains. They need a period of re-building -- not a period of alienating their remaining voters.
I strongly suspect the LibDems will not enter a coalition with anyone, merely offering C & S to whatever can be cobbled together after May.
Winding up deposed and retiring MPs’ offices will cost the taxpayer as much £18.4 million, the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority, which regulates MPs’ costs, expects."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11562467/Election-2015-as-many-as-145-MPs-could-lose-seats.html
And wasn't Lucien Fletcher (remember him....) a Hammer too?
Corellation cannot be equated to causation: Otherwise people would be writing doctorates based upon the politicalbetting.vanillaforms.com@id (mine is 42), the number of posts to said address (and this should be 1770?) and - finally - their own perspective and - full-frontal - questioning of those that they disagree with!
:cheer-up-gaijin-(no-mention-of-'it-is-eight')-oh..!:
His position might help in Lab/LD marginals if it encourages Con tactical voting for LD. Looking at the close Lab/LD marginals there is only one where in practice this might help - Sheffield Hallam. (Perhaps Birmingham Yardley). Looks very selfish to me.
LOL
'However the SNP now holds the seat at Holyrood and at this general election, given the national trend, it is a certainty that Stirling will elect either a Labour or Nationalist MP. While I’d like to see Cameron carry on as PM for another term, I don’t want to end up with a separatist as my representative at Westminster. Therefore I’m voting Labour. My question to him, during an interview for Saturday’s Scottish Daily Mail, was this: am I doing the wrong thing?
He looked thoughtful, and for one wonderful moment I thought he was going to high-five me, praise my political acuity and tell me to crack on. Sadly, he went with the predictable line:
'‘I’m telling Conservatives all over Scotland, vote for what you value, vote for the team you support and that team is the Conservative Party"'
..err West Ham...no, SLab...wait, Stirling United, that's it!
St Helens South candidate is already over 65
Women selected in Blackburn, Neath and Coventry NE are around 60
Swansea East candidate is in mid 50 and Bristol South's one is 51.
The chap replacing Blunkett in Sheffield is likely to be at least in the 55-60 range given he was a NUM rep during the miner strike.
Same for new candidate in Bootle considering he was already a Cllr in 1981.
In many of these cases it's the CLP going for the "senior Cllr" route (St Helens South, Blackburn, Coventry NE, Sheffield Brightside and Bootle; 2 were sitting Council Leaders, 1 was the Deputy Council Leader and 1 a former Council leader).
Patrick O'Flynn (@oflynnmep)
25/04/2015 09:43
Expecting a clarification from No10 soon that in fact the PM supports the West Hampstead Villains... One for @usasoccerguy
Michael Deacon (@MichaelPDeacon)
25/04/2015 09:45
Aston Ham, or West Villa? Let's consult Hansard pic.twitter.com/y7mPCd9ssi
I know that Bob probably qualifies as a member of the Lib Dem's own "awkward squad" (and his main competition comes from the Tories), but in a much shrunken Lib Dem parliamentary party this sort of view becomes more problematic.
I'm not at all sure that the remaining Lib Dems will agree with each other enough to go into coalition with any party at all, without fatally damaging their own party.
I also agree that the centre of gravity of the remaining LD voters has moved rightwards. But the ambition of the LDs should surely be to attract back those past supporters who are put off by the neo-liberal agenda of the current LD leadership? Why be content with a rump of 7 or 8% share as a Tory-Lite party?
The resurgence of the LDs can only happen if Clegg goes as leader and there is some form of cooperation with labour.
I have been an active member of the LDs (and Liberals) since 1983. I resigned in 2011, not because of the coalition which I supported, but by the decisions by Clegg on student fees/NHS reorganisation/deep cuts which were unnecessary and not what LDs stood for. I've recently rejoined so I can vote Clegg out next month.
I collapsed on my 21st birthday and when I came round the first thing they asked me was arsenals result that day... 0-0 at Southampton, Adams sent off, no hesitation!
He is a fake and this proves it conclusively if there was any doubt
"I don't think that's right - if Lab+LD was viable he'd still be up for that, no? Obviously in those circumstances Ed Miliband would have the option of dispensing with LD and just working with the SNP, but a coalition with the LibDems would sound more stable than a minority government dependent on the SNP."
But isn't it an odd position for a party who have made 'fair votes' their raison d'etre to say would have nothing to do with joining a government that was in any way beholden to a party that will (almost certainly) have considerably more seats than them?
Clegg's a 'we know best' eurocrat.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2829358/SEBASTIAN-SHAKESPEARE-David-Blunkett-s-successor-toasted-news-Baroness-Thatcher-s-death.html
As an aside, I see that Blunkett was born in Jessop Hospital in Sheffield. Doing a little digging, it is named after Thomas Jessop was a Sheffield steelmaker, from a family of steelmakers. Since my moniker's family had interests in steelmaking (e.g. the Butterley Company) in the nearby area, I wonder if he was a branch of the same family? A quick search of Josias' family shows no link.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jessop_Hospital