@SO - You're correct in that the Fixed Term Act makes an early dissolution more difficult, but it can still happen if no alternative govt could be formed. In the electoral scenario I've presented Miliband forming his own adminstration would be highly problematic.
Another incredibly bleak, cynical anti-war adventure film is Play Dirty with Michael Caine.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, where everyone, Germans included, are honourable, likeable heroes is The Battle of The River Plate...
The life and death of Colonel Blimp, is another one in which a central German character is sympathetic and honorable, all the more remarkable for being released in 1943. I think that this was a problem at the time.
@SO - You're correct in that the Fixed Term Act makes an early dissolution more difficult, but it can still happen if no alternative govt could be formed. In the electoral scenario I've presented Miliband forming his own adminstration would be highly problematic.
If the LDs and Labour combined have enough votes to prevent a Referendum Bill they would surely have enough votes to form a government.
Possibly but far from certain (remember in 2010 Lab+LD would not command a majority).
But we're moving away from your original argument, namely that the Tories would implode on the EU referendum should they not win a majority.
My point is to delineate a perfectly plausible set of events - indeed more probable than possible - in which not only do the Conservatives stay united but contrive to outwit their opponents. To answer my own question: confronted by a minority Tory government, say 10-15 short of an overall majority, introducing a referendum bill immediately on taking office, the opposition parties would not cobine to vote it down.
Labour hit 35% with ICM the month after the GE - basically as soon as the LDs went into coalition with the Tories - and have been at or above that level pretty much ever since. It would be interesting to know if there have been any similar upward ticks for losing governments in polls so soon after an election defeat.
I doubt it, as we've never had a coalition before. But does it not worry you that 3 years later Labour are no better off?
If I had a shedload invested in the outcome in 2015 I would be concerned to an extent, but I don't so I'm not. The best I have always thought that Labour could realistically hope for in 2015 is to be the biggest party in another hung Parliament. I have held that view sionce June 2010 and I am not going to change now. As I have said on here many times before, my hope is for a Labour/LD coalition. I do not want Labour to govern alone. I don't thnk the party has enough energy, vision or talent to do that.
The point about us having a coalition govertnment is an important one, though. We just do not know how polls *should* be performing, as we have not really been in this position before. My sense is that the Labour mid-level 30s score is a pretty firm base. If that is close to being the case, the Tories really do have a mountain to climb to win outright next time and a tough task to remain the largest party.
I believe that anything other than an outright victory would make it almost certain the Tories would descend very quickly into civil war. Cameron has said that if he leads the government after the next election there will be a referendum on EU membership in 2017. But he can only be sure he can deliver on that promise if he wins outright. If he is dependent on others, that 2017 date, the quetion to be asked and even whether the vote happens are out of his control. And that will be a red rag to the right-wing fundamentalists, who will already be apoplectic that once again the Tories have failed to win power on their own.
There could be a lot of people who similarly don't want Labour to govern on their own, depending on how many fail to believe Labour's apparent new-found fiscal discipline and want the Lib Dems to be a soft-left sanity check. Which might lead to some interesting individual results in 2015.
The polls are not complicated or unsurprising - the Conservatives got into government for the first time in 13 years and disappointed plenty of right-wingers; ditto the Lib Dems for left-wingers except they have also lost all the protestors to Labour and Ukip, and other assorted none-of-the-above types to Ukip. The most interesting thing about current polling is the 5-10% of former Lib Dems who now say they would vote Conservative.
And I don't know about Labour's current polling being a "base". If anything Labour (and everyone else) will lose voters back to the Lib Dems as the election approaches.
But I agree about the Conservatives - if they scrape back in Cameron won't last another five years (nor will he want to) and Ukip will get a few MPs (which won't be bad thing in the long term). But at least Balls will be kept away from the Treasury!
Morning all, I assume OGH hasn't got his peerage today? Are we really going to see insipid growth this year? It was +0.3% in Q1, every figure since April shows stronger performances so Q2 is likely to be +0.5% which gives us +0.8% in the 1st 6 months. The Q3 might be slower because North Sea Oil output will fall due to high maintenance programmes being planned in the summer but surely if growth is to be <1% then we will have to see a contraction in either Q3 of Q4?
In the past month or so we have had the announcement of no fewer than a dozen large infrastructural civil engineering projects in the Highlands and North-east starting and I assume we are not the only part of the country to see this. Growth estimates have already been revised up by the so called experts from 0.5 to 0.8 or 1.0. Are we not likely to see 2013 growth nearer 1.5% by the end of the year, barring any major disaster of course!
Projects I can think of Dualling A9 Dualling A96 Aberdeen by-pass Inverness by-pass A82 upgrades Nigg port expansion Cromarty Firth port expansion Inverness College construction Re-opening of one Speyside distillery 14 years after being closed Major warehousing expansion at Glenmorangie Distillery Upgrading at 5 other ports Go ahead given for construction of several new health centres and schools
The creation of 80 miles of dual carriageway on both the A9 and A96 will take 12 years for the A9 and 17 years for the A96. Both projects are in the £2-3 billion range and will create/secure hundreds of construction jobs.
The by-passes will create hundreds of jobs in the short term as will the college construction and the Nigg and Croamrty Firth projects are set to create several thousand jobs between them of which the majority are long-term jobs not simply construction ones.
Aberdeen is booming. The oil and gas industry cannot find enough qualified engineering workers and colleges are expanding courses as fast as they can to train the next generation. </p>
Nice to see you back on Easterross, re your post , just think what we will be able to achieve when we are independent and able to really run the economy
It proves once again, if it needed further proving, that when a thread is dead PBers revert to being film and TV critics.
Yes, its a dead day, but with Sir Baldrick honouring the Queens birthday, what more can we want.
I guess you weren't around when we posted about our favourite vegetables and cooking tips? That was an excellent run of posts that lasted several days... I think that was in 2008/09.
Speaking of films = how many times has Hugh Jackman played Wolverine?! I've only seen the X-Men but just looked him up and he's been this character loads of times.
It proves once again, if it needed further proving, that when a thread is dead PBers revert to being film and TV critics.
Yes, its a dead day, but with Sir Baldrick honouring the Queens birthday, what more can we want.
I guess you weren't around when we posted about our favourite vegetables and cooking tips? That was an excellent run of posts that lasted several days... I think that was in 2008/09.
Speaking of films = how many times has Hugh Jackman played Wolverine?! I've only seen the X-Men but just looked him up and he's been this character loads of times.
It proves once again, if it needed further proving, that when a thread is dead PBers revert to being film and TV critics.
Yes, its a dead day, but with Sir Baldrick honouring the Queens birthday, what more can we want.
I guess you weren't around when we posted about our favourite vegetables and cooking tips? That was an excellent run of posts that lasted several days... I think that was in 2008/09.
Speaking of films = how many times has Hugh Jackman played Wolverine?! I've only seen the X-Men but just looked him up and he's been this character loads of times.
"and if the governing parties can behave as the electorate expects governing parties to. "
David, that is a huge caveat Since the electorate's firm rejection of electoral reform, Clegg has behaved like a spoilt child who has been denied his long hoped-for toy - indeed he throws his toys out of the pram most of the time. I do not expect his behaviour to improve unless a nanny can be found to instill some discipline or he is put out for adoption (sacked as leader).
Last week's ST YouGov, showed NC as "dong badly" by 72% of those polled, by 36% of LD voters and 67% of 2010 LD voters. He rates badly by 63% of Cons voters and by 70% of 2010 Cons voters.
Similarly 66% of those polled think the Coalition is working badly together (34% of Cons and 36% of LDs and 53% of 2010 Cons and 58% of 2010 LDs).
With the LDs still in a panic over losing so much of their 2010 vote for their support of student fees and being part of the coalition, it is unlkely that NC's behaviour will change as he struggles to cling on to his remaining support.
As he (and much of his party) are so much out of tune with the electorate on immigration and the EU (as they prioritised politics before electorate's needs), will the autumn LD conference see u-turns from the LDs as well as Labour - or will they go down in 2015 with all sandals leaking and lost causes drowning?
'There were many other reasons for the 1997 defeat, from sleaze to splits over Europe to a feeling that the Conservatives had run out of steam after eighteen years.'
No, the media had it in for Gentleman John and were besotted with Blair - thus the onslaught was relentless, unprecedented and brutal. I saw a cartoon the other day from the Major era. Two of his government's supposed catastrophe's were new-variant CJD and Gulf War syndrome. Are we even sure these days that those two things actually exist?
Jane Merrick @janemerrick23 Someone has pointed out that there are more male Lib Dem MPs with knighthoods than there are female Lib Dem MPs. SORT IT OUT NICK CLEGG!
What you just showed is national debt in two periods of growth and one recession. Shockingly enough, debt grows during a recession and grows slower if at all during periods of growth.
"To be absolutely clear: this isn’t an issue of image or PR. Rather, it’s essential to Labour’s re-invigoration that talented and passionate people from all walks of life can rise to the top of the party. Consider the architect of our treasured NHS, Nye Bevan. Bevan, from the South Wales valleys, left school at thirteen with no qualifications to work in a colliery. Today the only way he would be allowed into the House of Commons would be to empty the bins and scrub the floors."
People who have no idea about grammar and have to guess where the apostrophes go aren't going to put themselves forward cos they know they'll make a tw*t of themselves.
The schools people like Bevan went to taught all that basic stuff.
It proves once again, if it needed further proving, that when a thread is dead PBers revert to being film and TV critics.
Yes, its a dead day, but with Sir Baldrick honouring the Queens birthday, what more can we want.
I guess you weren't around when we posted about our favourite vegetables and cooking tips? That was an excellent run of posts that lasted several days... I think that was in 2008/09.
Speaking of films = how many times has Hugh Jackman played Wolverine?! I've only seen the X-Men but just looked him up and he's been this character loads of times.
What you just showed is national debt in two periods of growth and one recession. Shockingly enough, debt grows during a recession and grows slower if at all during periods of growth.
With respect that is not the point. The point is that we will inevitably have deficits on our trading account when we run consistent and substantial deficts in government spending. The reasons are obvious: government borrowing is a way of artificially increasing demand by bringing forward consumption from the future. At the moment demand in this country is being artificially inflated by over £100bn a year of borrowed money. This has allowed the economy to remain in its inflated state but only at the cost of ever more debt.
It would be astonishing if we were able to run a large enough trade surplus to offset this additional consumption. We have not done so since 1998.
The result is that debt has increased enormously to a point that is seriously dangerous. It is still increasing very fast and will do for some years yet. When we cannot borrow more consumption will fall very sharply and the balance of payments will recover. So we will have real austerity instead of pretend austerity. It will not be fun.
Quinnipiac has Hillary Clinton losing Colorado, the first state to turn from red to blue in 2016 with a Clinton candidacy (but bear in mind Bill lost Colorado in 1996 while winning nationally, she could well pick up Arkansas and WV while losing a state like Colorado)
•Chris Christie (R) 44% •Hillary Clinton (D) 41% •Marco Rubio (R) 46% •Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
Galaxy (Oz) Galaxy poll showing the Coalition leading 55-45, compared with 54-46 in Galaxy’s previous poll. Primary votes are 32% for Labor (down two), 47% for the Coalition (up one) and 11% for the Greens (up one). Under a Kevin Rudd leadership scenario, the primary votes are 38% for Labor, 43% for the Coalition and 11% for the Greens, with two-party preferred at 50-50. Nonetheless, only 34% said Gillard should make way for Rudd with 52% opposed (32-60 among Labor and 33-51 among Coalition supporters).
What you just showed is national debt in two periods of growth and one recession. Shockingly enough, debt grows during a recession and grows slower if at all during periods of growth.
I think you'll find that there was a recession in the period 1979-1981 and that the cheerleaders eulogise the growth we have now.
Living within your means is something that you chose to do or chose not to do whatever the economic circumstances, a state of mentality in effect. Certainly this can be varied temporarily by running a surplus in the good times and then spending more in bad times ie proper Keynesism.
But what we have now is an entitlement mentality - the belief we are entitled to a certain standard of living whether we can afford it or not.
Now unless the rest of the world has agreed to that at some point we are going to suffer some extreme economic pain.
It proves once again, if it needed further proving, that when a thread is dead PBers revert to being film and TV critics.
Yes, its a dead day, but with Sir Baldrick honouring the Queens birthday, what more can we want.
I guess you weren't around when we posted about our favourite vegetables and cooking tips? That was an excellent run of posts that lasted several days... I think that was in 2008/09.
Speaking of films = how many times has Hugh Jackman played Wolverine?! I've only seen the X-Men but just looked him up and he's been this character loads of times.
Mr. K, I'm quite surprised Tony Robinson gets a knighthood whereas Rowan Atkinson doesn't.
Well I suppose thats because Tony Robinson is well known as a Labour stalwart and is political and Rowan Atkinson isn't.
Having met and obliquely worked with Tony Robinson a couple of times I can safely say I do not like him at all. But I think it is fair to say that when it comes to a wide ranging contribution to arts and culture (although I am aware that is not what he got his Knighthood for), Robinson's contribution has been far wider and more significant than Atkinson's (who I do like very much).
Robinson and Mick Aston transformed archaeology in Britain with Time Team and the discipline, along with the associated subject of local history owes them a massive debt of gratitude. Nor was Robinson just a presenter. He was instrumental in getting the programmes made and ensuring they carried out real, valuable archaeological work as well as being entertaining. There has been nothing less than an explosion in interest in archaeology since Time Team began with many new opportunities for people to get actively involved.
Funnily enough the only other person in the last half century to have had such an impact on the discipline and on preserving our heritage was Mrs Thatcher with the introduction of PPG16 in the mid 80s.
They'll have to find a way to make it work in relation to trusts though.
There is a long way to go but Osborne and now Cameron have been on this journey almost since day one. There is no doubt at all about the direction of travel and that in itself will change things. In my limited experience the sort of families that enjoy these kinds of arrangements think long term and I would be surprised if they were not taking steps to address any potential embarrassments already.
Just as sophisticated and artificial tax planning has already become not only more difficult but morally reprehensible I think these arrangements will be unwound to some extent with more of this money declared and onshore.
It is hard to say how much tax this might generate but it has the potential to be a significant number.
"The trial, involving 400 patients with aggressive melanoma, found that when patients’ tumours were injected with a modified form of the herpes virus, T-Vec, 16 per cent of them were in complete or partial remission six months later, compared with only 2 per cent of patients in a control group. Kevin Harrington, a cancer specialist who treated Sir Michael at the Royal Marsden Hospital in London, is leading a similar study to test the benefits of T-Vec for patients with head and neck cancers. He predicts that virotherapies for cancer could be licensed within 18 months...
Virotherapy uses a two-pronged attack. Viruses replicate efficiently in tumours, because of the nature of cancer cells. Through genetic engineering, common viruses such as herpes can be modified to infect cancer almost exclusively, bypassing healthy cells. As the virus multiplies inside cells, they eventually rupture, spilling the virus into the surrounding area, triggering an immune reaction against the cancerous tissue — or as Sir Michael puts it, it “gets your body to say ‘what the hell’s going on here?’” Virotherapy is typically used alongside conventional treatments and aside from a bout of flu-like symptoms, severe side-effects appear to be rare.
The Institute of Cancer Research trial, in which Sir Michael took part, showed that 94 per cent of tumours removed surgically after treatment contained no remaining cancer cells. At the time the study was reported, two thirds of patients were free of disease and many have since reached the five-year landmark... http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/science/medicine/article3791828.ece
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22919576
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0036112/plotsummary?ref_=tt_ov_pl
But we're moving away from your original argument, namely that the Tories would implode on the EU referendum should they not win a majority.
My point is to delineate a perfectly plausible set of events - indeed more probable than possible - in which not only do the Conservatives stay united but contrive to outwit their opponents. To answer my own question: confronted by a minority Tory government, say 10-15 short of an overall majority, introducing a referendum bill immediately on taking office, the opposition parties would not cobine to vote it down.
The polls are not complicated or unsurprising - the Conservatives got into government for the first time in 13 years and disappointed plenty of right-wingers; ditto the Lib Dems for left-wingers except they have also lost all the protestors to Labour and Ukip, and other assorted none-of-the-above types to Ukip. The most interesting thing about current polling is the 5-10% of former Lib Dems who now say they would vote Conservative.
And I don't know about Labour's current polling being a "base". If anything Labour (and everyone else) will lose voters back to the Lib Dems as the election approaches.
But I agree about the Conservatives - if they scrape back in Cameron won't last another five years (nor will he want to) and Ukip will get a few MPs (which won't be bad thing in the long term). But at least Balls will be kept away from the Treasury!
Yes, its a dead day, but with Sir Baldrick honouring the Queens birthday, what more can we want.
Speaking of films = how many times has Hugh Jackman played Wolverine?! I've only seen the X-Men but just looked him up and he's been this character loads of times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFutWATCPg0&feature=g-vrec
Off to watch One Flew Over The Cuckcoo's Nest - I will like always switch it off right before the very end...
"and if the governing parties can behave as the electorate expects governing parties to. "
David, that is a huge caveat Since the electorate's firm rejection of electoral reform, Clegg has behaved like a spoilt child who has been denied his long hoped-for toy - indeed he throws his toys out of the pram most of the time. I do not expect his behaviour to improve unless a nanny can be found to instill some discipline or he is put out for adoption (sacked as leader).
Last week's ST YouGov, showed NC as "dong badly" by 72% of those polled, by 36% of LD voters and 67% of 2010 LD voters. He rates badly by 63% of Cons voters and by 70% of 2010 Cons voters.
Similarly 66% of those polled think the Coalition is working badly together (34% of Cons and 36% of LDs and 53% of 2010 Cons and 58% of 2010 LDs).
With the LDs still in a panic over losing so much of their 2010 vote for their support of student fees and being part of the coalition, it is unlkely that NC's behaviour will change as he struggles to cling on to his remaining support.
As he (and much of his party) are so much out of tune with the electorate on immigration and the EU (as they prioritised politics before electorate's needs), will the autumn LD conference see u-turns from the LDs as well as Labour - or will they go down in 2015 with all sandals leaking and lost causes drowning?
Just bought a homeopathic computer, it only has a tiny amount of processing power but it's got loads of memory.
No, the media had it in for Gentleman John and were besotted with Blair - thus the onslaught was relentless, unprecedented and brutal. I saw a cartoon the other day from the Major era. Two of his government's supposed catastrophe's were new-variant CJD and Gulf War
syndrome. Are we even sure these days that those two things actually exist?
Jane Merrick @janemerrick23
Someone has pointed out that there are more male Lib Dem MPs with knighthoods than there are female Lib Dem MPs. SORT IT OUT NICK CLEGG!
1979 47.2%
1980 44.0%
1981 46.1%
1982 46.1%
1983 44.8%
Government finances under control
1993 31.4%
1994 36.5%
1995 40.1%
1996 41.9%
1997 42.1%
A sharp increase but from a low base and back under control by the end of the period.
2010 57.1%
2011 66.6%
2012 71.8%
2013 75.4%
Oh dear.
And not unconnected the corresponding trade balances:
1979 £1bn surplus
1980 £6bn surplus
1981 £8bn surplus
1982 £6bn surplus
1983 £4bn surplus
1993 £1bn deficit
1994 £2bn surplus
1995 £4bn surplus
1996 £4bn surplus
1997 £6bn surplus
2010 £32bn deficit
2011 £24bn deficit
2012 £36bn deficit
Unless the rest of the world announced that it owed Britain a living then at some point we will experience austerity instead of 'austerity'.
Seen that film dozens of times, a classic... Billy plays the Sherrifs deputy in Mississippi Burning doesnt he? Another fav film of mine
It would be astonishing if we were able to run a large enough trade surplus to offset this additional consumption. We have not done so since 1998.
The result is that debt has increased enormously to a point that is seriously dangerous. It is still increasing very fast and will do for some years yet. When we cannot borrow more consumption will fall very sharply and the balance of payments will recover. So we will have real austerity instead of pretend austerity. It will not be fun.
•Chris Christie (R) 44%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 41%
•Marco Rubio (R) 46%
•Hillary Clinton (D) 45%
•Chris Christie (R) 48%
•Joe Biden (D) 32%
•Marco Rubio (R) 48%
•Joe Biden (D) 35%
Living within your means is something that you chose to do or chose not to do whatever the economic circumstances, a state of mentality in effect. Certainly this can be varied temporarily by running a surplus in the good times and then spending more in bad times ie proper Keynesism.
But what we have now is an entitlement mentality - the belief we are entitled to a certain standard of living whether we can afford it or not.
Now unless the rest of the world has agreed to that at some point we are going to suffer some extreme economic pain.
And Frederickson was the Subway Ghost in Ghost...
Robinson and Mick Aston transformed archaeology in Britain with Time Team and the discipline, along with the associated subject of local history owes them a massive debt of gratitude. Nor was Robinson just a presenter. He was instrumental in getting the programmes made and ensuring they carried out real, valuable archaeological work as well as being entertaining. There has been nothing less than an explosion in interest in archaeology since Time Team began with many new opportunities for people to get actively involved.
Funnily enough the only other person in the last half century to have had such an impact on the discipline and on preserving our heritage was Mrs Thatcher with the introduction of PPG16 in the mid 80s.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22915954
They'll have to find a way to make it work in relation to trusts though.
Just as sophisticated and artificial tax planning has already become not only more difficult but morally reprehensible I think these arrangements will be unwound to some extent with more of this money declared and onshore.
It is hard to say how much tax this might generate but it has the potential to be a significant number.
"The trial, involving 400 patients with aggressive melanoma, found that when patients’ tumours were injected with a modified form of the herpes virus, T-Vec, 16 per cent of them were in complete or partial remission six months later, compared with only 2 per cent of patients in a control group. Kevin Harrington, a cancer specialist who treated Sir Michael at the Royal Marsden Hospital in London, is leading a similar study to test the benefits of T-Vec for patients with head and neck cancers. He predicts that virotherapies for cancer could be licensed within 18 months...
Virotherapy uses a two-pronged attack. Viruses replicate efficiently in tumours, because of the nature of cancer cells. Through genetic engineering, common viruses such as herpes can be modified to infect cancer almost exclusively, bypassing healthy cells. As the virus multiplies inside cells, they eventually rupture, spilling the virus into the surrounding area, triggering an immune reaction against the cancerous tissue — or as Sir Michael puts it, it “gets your body to say ‘what the hell’s going on here?’” Virotherapy is typically used alongside conventional treatments and aside from a bout of flu-like symptoms, severe side-effects appear to be rare.
The Institute of Cancer Research trial, in which Sir Michael took part, showed that 94 per cent of tumours removed surgically after treatment contained no remaining cancer cells. At the time the study was reported, two thirds of patients were free of disease and many have since reached the five-year landmark... http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/science/medicine/article3791828.ece
Who’ll win the UKIP-Lib Dem fight at GE2015 both in terms of seats and votes? Your chance to make your prediction. http://bit.ly/16rnvVg