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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A joyless recovery doesn’t necessarily mean a voteless recovery
Since speculation of a triple-dip recession was put onto the backburner with the modest growth recorded in the first quarter of the year, the preponderance of the economic stats have pointed to the embedding of a steady, if unspectacular, recovery. The employment figures this last week were as good an example as any:
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"To be absolutely clear: this isn’t an issue of image or PR. Rather, it’s essential to Labour’s re-invigoration that talented and passionate people from all walks of life can rise to the top of the party. Consider the architect of our treasured NHS, Nye Bevan. Bevan, from the South Wales valleys, left school at thirteen with no qualifications to work in a colliery. Today the only way he would be allowed into the House of Commons would be to empty the bins and scrub the floors."
People who have no idea about grammar and have to guess where the apostrophes go aren't going to put themselves forward cos they know they'll make a tw*t of themselves.
The schools people like Bevan went to taught all that basic stuff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5ffAx8SVJQ
"Mrs Gandhi (who?) is assassinated. Her son (who?) takes over (takes over as what?). Good evening. Indira Gandhi, ruler of the world's largest democracy (where?), died today, shot down by two of her own bodyguards. They were Sikhs, taking revenge for the invasion of their temple in June, and tonight mobs of Hindus have been attacking Sikhs in cities throughout the sub-continent (what sub-continent?). Within hours of the assassination, the country (what country?) had a new prime minister, Mrs Gandhi's son Rajiv. This was how India (at last, we are told.) first heard the news of the murder...:"
http://standpointmag.co.uk/features-june-13-camerons-too-late-to-tame-the-ukip-tiger-tim-congdon-nigel-farage
Each to his (or her) own, I suppose. But I really liked "Inception". I was surprised at how I was able to follow it closely at all levels without being confused, and without losing track of which was which. It has an amazing ending, which made the whole audience in the cinema do a big "oh!" at the last moment before the credits. But if you didn't like it, no need to bother watching it again just for that bit.
"After [Nehru's] release from prison, he plied [his father] Motilal with question after question and then, exhausted, sat back to ponder the grim realities. He was fully convinced that the movement was finished. He now understood the iron law that determines the rise and fall of large mass movements. On the upswing, people are prepared to accomplish miracles. They learn things very rapidly, assimilate new ideas quickly and can even politically overtake a leadership which appears to them cautious and conservative. Once the movement is past its peak without achieving success, then a lot depends on the political organisation. If, like Congress, it is incapable of holding things together, then people get demoralised, feel leaderless, and slip back into apathy."
Perhaps a warning for UKIP or Beppe Grillo or whoever.
http://www.crimaz.com/pay-per-views/619-watch-wwe-payback-2013-june-16-2013-6-16-2013-*full-replay-720p*-watch-online-download.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8huXkSaL7o
Quick technical question - apart from files being twice the size, what does Blue Ray formatting do that HD doesn't? I haven't seen many BR movies, but the quality does seem a bit richer/better depth when it comes to CGI.
1) The 29% who preferred Gordon to Dave
2) The 7% or so who were on the left of the LibDems (and prefer Balls to Osborne by a large margin)
3) The fed-up Kippers
It's possible to imagine 3) collapsing, which would disproportionately help the Tories. The first two groups are largely impervious to Tory persuasion. So the Tories need to GAIN votes over last time in significant numbers. Where are they going to come from?
I doubt that an upper middle class southerner like Ed will perform as well as Brown did in Scotland and Northern England.
But I think that NPXMP is being a little complacent.
Some of Gordons 29% and the left leaning 7% of LDs will have died, some will have moved, some will have changed their minds and some will have gone kipper, and some will not bother to vote next time. Some will have gone SNP, PC, Green or Respect.
If 10-15% of the 36% fall into one or other of these then Labours vote would be around 32%, leaving a lot of others up for grabs.
The Tories are showing similar attrition themselves and showing little sign of hoovering these up.
The volatility of the polls over the years shows that it is not yet game over. All parties need to play to the whistle.
Often the image quality will not be noticeable, but when it is: wow. At company Y we used to play the first half hour of 'Saving Private Ryan' on an endless loop on our test benches as it was a fairly good test of the decoding - data rich, and the explosions show up compression artifacting well.
But there is a law of diminishing returns; eventually you reach a state where most people cannot see a difference (especially as few people seem to calibrate their TVs).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/10120706/Woolwich-outrage-we-are-too-weak-to-face-up-to-the-extremism-in-our-midst.html
To start with the governments previous to those elections were one-party, rather than coalitions. We now have a coalition and for one partner it would appear that roughly half it's voters, and more in some areas, have taken what appears to be terminal umbrage at the party's participation in that coalition. At the same time the other partner has split, over what appear to be fairly basic issues.
Further, in 1983 there wasn't much, if any, of a "sleaze" issue. The big argument was over the competence or otherwise, both of the government party, resolved to a large extent by the Falklands War, and of the major opposition party, and in this case especially of it's leader.
In 1997 the government party was on the defensive on both sleaze and competence.
Thirdly there are the party leaders. As far as 1983 is concerned, people may not have liked Mrs T, but she was respected. David Steeel was widely seen as a decent man. Michael Foot was seen, as I recall, as a bit of a bumbler, with some friends whose loyalty to the State was questionable (...... and the Cold War was still in progress, remember). Three of the Gang of Four were also widely respected, especially Roy Jenkins.
Forward to 1997, and Major was seen as a nice man well out of his depth. Blair was a clean, fresh face, with no baggage, and the time Labour had spent out of office had meant that he was, to a considerable degree, surrounded by people untarnished by the Winter of Discontent. Paddy Ashdown, too, although he'd a problem or two was seen as a likeable, competent man, whose training had prepared him to cope with leadership. In England at any rate there wasn't another option, except perhaps Sir James Goldsmith, a weirdo!
Now what have we got? Cameron is seen as wildly out-of-touch with his own party members, let alone the person in the street, and to rely very largely on a close circle of the similarly out-of-touch. Clegg is perceived as someone whose touch on anything is fatal and moreover is fundamentally dishonest and Milliband as somewhat weird, although by no means in the same league as Goldsmith.
In neither 1983 nor 1997 did we have what appears at the moment at any rate to be a significnt fourth party, in England anyway, unashamedly on the right, whose leader is either very popular as "in touch with the inner Englishman" or regarded with deep suspicion.
The Avengers in BR is awesome - the field of depth is so good, I could almost touch the characters/sets, it looks crisper and sharper than reality if that makes any sense. Very impressive if you're a connoisseur of this stuff.
In the past month or so we have had the announcement of no fewer than a dozen large infrastructural civil engineering projects in the Highlands and North-east starting and I assume we are not the only part of the country to see this. Growth estimates have already been revised up by the so called experts from 0.5 to 0.8 or 1.0. Are we not likely to see 2013 growth nearer 1.5% by the end of the year, barring any major disaster of course!
Projects I can think of
Dualling A9
Dualling A96
Aberdeen by-pass
Inverness by-pass
A82 upgrades
Nigg port expansion
Cromarty Firth port expansion
Inverness College construction
Re-opening of one Speyside distillery 14 years after being closed
Major warehousing expansion at Glenmorangie Distillery
Upgrading at 5 other ports
Go ahead given for construction of several new health centres and schools
The creation of 80 miles of dual carriageway on both the A9 and A96 will take 12 years for the A9 and 17 years for the A96. Both projects are in the £2-3 billion range and will create/secure hundreds of construction jobs.
The by-passes will create hundreds of jobs in the short term as will the college construction and the Nigg and Croamrty Firth projects are set to create several thousand jobs between them of which the majority are long-term jobs not simply construction ones.
Aberdeen is booming. The oil and gas industry cannot find enough qualified engineering workers and colleges are expanding courses as fast as they can to train the next generation.
More data helps in scenes that are fast-moving: in these, there is less similarity between frames and groups of frames, and so more data needs to be stored. It is why you often get artifacting in flames on a standard-definition broadcast - it's hard to encode the flames within the frame rate.
But as I've said, most people don't calibrate their TV's video and audio to get the best performance. I've been to friend's houses where they're showing off their new wonderful blu-ray player on a TV that is out of alignment and fuzzy.
Nick Palmer is being too complacent. Voting for Labour as an opposition party is a different proposition to voting for Labour as a party of government. While 2010 Lib Dem voters now seem to have the zeal of the convert for Labour, there's no particular reason why 2010 Labour voters might not change their minds. Or simply not vote. It's hardly as if they're overwhelmed with enthusiasm for the current Labour leadership.
It now seems unlikely that real wages will even be holding their own by the next election. The small upward blip we saw last week seemed to be almost entirely driven by deferred bonuses and government policy is going to drive cuts in public sector earnings (something the government has found extremely difficult so far).
As the article said this is already completely unprecedented. By 2015 we will be in a situation that has not been recorded since the industrial revolution. How will voters respond?
Firstly, I think it is very unlikely that the government will get credit for the upturn. People will simply not feel better off because they are not. They will be worse off.
Secondly, the number still blaming the last Labour government remains important. This has remained surprisingly steady over time. Will it remain at current levels in 2 years time?
Thirdly, and most hopefully for the tories, will people think they are being offered a meaningful choice? This turns on the competency question that David discusses but I think it also goes to credibility. If Labour fail to reposition themselves to a point of accepting cuts to reduce the deficit and stop promising more goodies that the majority know we cannot afford they will not get the votes.
1983 is indeed the model for the last point. 1997 is when Labour did appear to offer such a choice. Labour need to get their thinking hats on. There is a narrative being established which is not favourable to them and it is their own fault.
" It is why you often get artifacting in flames on a standard-definition broadcast - it's hard to encode the flames within the frame rate"
Indeed - there aren't many films where they don't look like CGI, and pretty poor at that. That's why I still think Backdraft is the best flames movie as they're real...
I've noticed a certain video game quality CGI creeping into rather a lot of movies - it was obvious in Inception too, there's something about it that just feels wrong particularly during high-speed action. I find it really distracting.
Of course the tories have nothing to lose up here. In England London is growing very strongly and there seems to be continued strength in the east around Cambridge. But real wages have fallen everywhere as they had to. London may be back in positive territory by the next election but the midlands etc where most of the battle seats are will not be.
I think there is a bigger narrative that politicians of all persuasions seem unable to articulate and are certainly unabe to address: Our whole model is bust.
What happens when societies used to freebies have to go cold turkey? What happens when economies grown dependent on borrowed money or the printing presses have to balance their budgets? What happens when people find out there are limits to what the state can do?
All the devleoped nations are pushing deeper into the 'extend and pray' zone and seem quite incapable of accepting what is becoming obvious. A major fallout and rebalancing is coming along.
Miss Plato, I think that sort of thing is one of the largest problems with Indiana Jones and the Annoying Son. 'Real' effects (such as in the A-team) hold up better than dated or just obvious CGI.
In F1 news, Lotus has criticised Pirelli for taking conservative tyre choices to several of the next races: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22905355
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/14/spies-influence-john-le-carre
That is a little too apocalyptic for me. I do not think our economy is bust but it is seriously out of synch.
I would like this government, and the tories in particular, to do as David suggests and spend more time talking about these issues. Not only is it necessary to eliminate the current deficit but it is also necessary to run surpluses for very considerable periods of time to reduce the absolute level of debt.
The implications of that in both the level of services the state can provide and the level of taxation it is going to require are profound and not adequately discussed. I find this strange because almost by default the tories seem to be winning this argument and it is key to them being re-elected. I suspect that they look at the way their lead fell in the run up to the election when they started hinting at these things and find silence the better option. I think they are wrong to do that.
As things stand there is a risk that someone like Balls may seek to steal a march on them by seeking to reduce benefits for better off pensioners. We have already seen a tiny example of that but that is an area where Labour have little to lose. Thankfully, the absurd determination to keep a blank sheet of paper means this risk is relatively low.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLokDBOb7-U - the jet powered car is at 4.25 secs but its well worth watching from the start as they pack in every car stunt you can imagine.
I read a comedy article which had a piece on physical effects in movies, and the 'creeping horizontal flames' in Independence Day, done by building a model city, putting it on its side and lighting it on fire and slowing the footage down. It was amusingly pointed out that that is how you did it back in the day, spending weeks on making it, doing it in one and then hoping you didn't mess it up in case the model designer found you in the parking lot later and beat the crap out of you for making him do it again.
I know it became a bit abused in personal spats, but we lost the baby with the bathwater.
Blackadder the third - dish and dishonesty - as valid a criticism of politics today as the time in which it is set....
Universe is a bit hit and miss, I think.
NOTA is a big pool to fish in, as are some of the right of the LibDems who may not like the idea of a coalition with Miliband.
When I think about a film like the Blues Bros where they wrecked 103 cars in a single chase [and broke the record for doing so] or the spiral jump in Live & Let Die or Hooper et al and compare that to CGI - it just doesn't compare.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMagP52BWG8 - check out the sweetie papers rolling around on the dashboard as Dan Ackroyd drives through the parking lot...
As an aside, I am seriously pleased that Michael Hintze has been knighted. He is a simply fantastic guy and unbelievably generous.
Charlie Mayfield I know less well, but by reputation he is a very decent guy (just don't talk about Ewhurst)
Thank you, that was a very kind comment.
All Quiet on the Western Front springs to mind - any others? No Vietnam ones though - Full Apocalypse Platoon Hamburger July just remind me of being a teenager.
What I think the rise and partial fall of UKIP has shown is that politics in this country is more volatile and less tribal than we generally assume. The idea that Labour's 29% was a core vote that is never going to move is based on old assumptions I am not sure are valid anymore.
Volatility does not mean the tories will win of course, they may lose even more badly, but the next election is more up for grabs than the 29% + 7%'s think.
Ask Liam Fox or Adam Werritty about his generosity and they will be even more fulsome in their praise.
The Paths of Glory.
Please provide a link to what you are alluding to.
Because Osbrowne is a toxic liability who comes up with master strategies like banging on about Europe and immigration to kill the kipper vote. It's certainly not because Ed Balls is impressive.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKvENIKa8pc
Thanks - haven't seen GoN in years and don't know Paths at all - if any more spring to mind...
Sorry but I could have sworn you and others were making snide comments about 'Baldrick' getting a knighthood due to party affiliation. Still one rule for PB tories and one rule for everyone else is it Charles?
Obviously, I'm expecting this to be a move in a longer game that will make some people very rich at the expense of the taxpayer. But for now, hurrah!
http://www.education.gov.uk/schools/teachingandlearning/curriculum/nationalcurriculum2014/a00225864/assessing-without-levels
UKIP is run on a shoe-string, with very little organisation and few 'feet on the ground'. This will really hurt when it is understood that postal votes will be 25-30% at the next GE. The other 3 parties are well organized in handling that: UKIP is not. That this has a negative effective on democracy is conveniently forgotten. Either the tories or the LDs could have righted that wrong. The latter preferred to work on other constitutional reforms, neither of which was well thought through.
Watching The Prestige - it's rather good so far...
Hintze has given away millions of pounds to the National Gallery (where he is a Trustee), to the V&A and to many other good causes. He's given some tens of thousands (from memory) to the Tories, which any private citizen is entitled to do.
I'm proud of the fact that some of those who make a lot of money in our society choose to give it back. And I'm glad that the country recognises that through the honours system. If the prospect of a knighthood encourages just one more person to give away money then that is a great thing.
Postal votes are an electoral fact of life that every party has to deal with. Even the Greens and Galloway dealt with it with a minimal budget and astute targeting. The lib dems have taken massive hits on their base year on year despite having some expertise in dealing with that and a formidable on the ground GOTV organisation. So it's not quite a 'magic bullet' for any party. More of a basic requirement for any party with serious aspirations in harnessing their vote most effectively.
To be going on with ....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcykhFMgL40
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVSm_f7bO8s
Clip with Leslie Howard - who was killed in 1943.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6bBZhbxSeE
Tony Smith @TonyNewsCamera
If I did this in a car I'd cop a £50 fine MT “@LossieStnCdr: From the cockpit on the way into The Mall! pic.twitter.com/iWhVKQZ7dp”
Like that.
Come the election that will be a tricky call about the total number and which to give priority but again that is no different to the other parties. There will be a media focus on where Farage stands but I would think there has to be more than just absolute priority and every resource given to one seat and expect there will be. It's not some insurmountable barrier, more fairly dull but necessary logistics along with the activists ready to put in the footwork required.
Even movies like The Peacemaker, Battle Los Angeles and Starship Troopers are worth a look if you fancy some no brainer helicopter shooty shooty adventure.
http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/single-view/view/igc-grants-deutsche-bahn-access-to-channel-tunnel.html
Nick Clegg has been allocated a late role in #troopingthecolour. It involves a bucket and a shovel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y07I_KER5fE
On another note - the list of those who turned down Honours is fascinating http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declining_a_British_honour
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0389557/
And also in his early film Soldier of Orange.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0076734/?ref_=sr_1
Perhaps the best war (or antiwar?) Film that I have seen recently was Come and See. It is brutal in its picture of the Russian Partisan war, and must give some indication of what life is like in parts of Syria. The reprisal massacre scene is horrific in its casual brutality, particularly the church scene.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xWL-qyS_UOM
Paths of Glory
Breaker Morant
Das Boot
The Dambusters
Agree re Starship and the Nazis - it was so obvious within the first 10 mins of the film with the action set in Buenos Aires and the blue eyes/Aryan look. For a film that's pretty old - its really stood up rather well.
I've got Witness for the Prosecution on my watch-list - I wonder if that'll be as good as I remember... it had 6 Oscar nominations http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0051201/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1
Pork chop hill,gregory peck at his best in this Korean war movie.
@RodCrosby
"Paths of Glory
Breaker Morant"
Don't know them - will look them up, but agree re Das Boot and Dambusters - both super films.
The recovery is better than our European peers, but will be slow. It is certainly heartening that unemployment is now better than at the election. Despite the public sector attrition there has been job creation.
A slow and steady recovery would be a good thing, rather than a return to Labour boom and bust. It does expose Balls as yesterdays man, not least as a "stimulus" package would be obsolete by 2015.
I went to a very interesting speech by Andy Burnham on Wednesday at the national NHS commissioning show. He clearly envisages NHS cuts to fund Social care, and says there will be service closures. He also rather contradicted himself, promising to work within existing CCG structures while making them accountable to local elected councilors.
I liked his realistic approach and expect him to be a good Health Minister next time round, and he would have been a better choice than either Milliband as leader.
The point about us having a coalition govertnment is an important one, though. We just do not know how polls *should* be performing, as we have not really been in this position before. My sense is that the Labour mid-level 30s score is a pretty firm base. If that is close to being the case, the Tories really do have a mountain to climb to win outright next time and a tough task to remain the largest party.
I believe that anything other than an outright victory would make it almost certain the Tories would descend very quickly into civil war. Cameron has said that if he leads the government after the next election there will be a referendum on EU membership in 2017. But he can only be sure he can deliver on that promise if he wins outright. If he is dependent on others, that 2017 date, the quetion to be asked and even whether the vote happens are out of his control. And that will be a red rag to the right-wing fundamentalists, who will already be apoplectic that once again the Tories have failed to win power on their own.
Breaker Morant is interesting in its depiction of the perpetrators of a extra judicial killing of suspects as the heroes. This may have been because murder of Boers would have been acceptable to some liberal minds 30 years ago. The British are depicted as the villains, for punishing the Australians for the killings.
Old films do show how attitudes have moved on.
Another recommendation would be Peckinpah's Cross of Iron:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0074695/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1
Some great ones in there - I don't really remember Monty's Double or Wooden Horse/Sea of Sand - isn't the Cruel Sea with Jack Hawkins? That was very powerful.
I do love Mr Hawkins - he's ace in League of Gentlemen
Ah yes = of course Zulu, Ice Cold and Eagle has Landed. Don't know the others - is Master and Commander the one with Russell Crowe?
I really enjoyed Flight of the Phoenix.
The Referendum Bill will be its first legislation in the new Parliament. Will Labour and LD vote against it, full in the knowledge that should they combine to scuttle it, the consequence will be a second election within months when the new Govt is already enjoying its honeymoon period? I don't think so. Do you?
I find I prefer WW2 movies that aren't in your face propaganda - In Which We Serve for instance. That was OTT even more me as a little kid.
Cameron is having a lean spell. But he is essentially not disliked by the public. And his ratings will recover. In itself it does not mean much. Callaghan beat Thatcher hugely in personal liking states. Fat good it did Labour.
George is basically seen as an upper class t**t. So any recovery [ let's face it, all economies ultimately recover. Most G20 economies are well above 2007 levels ] will not help the Tories as much as say Ken Clarke, whom the public did not hate. However, the Tories after 1992 could not have won , whatever they did !
At the opposite end of the spectrum, where everyone, Germans included, are honourable, likeable heroes is The Battle of The River Plate...