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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » “Cameron has wanted out for a while – just wants to go out on a high” : Tim Montgomerie
Cameron’s great strength is that he’s always been seen as more popular than his party something that had appertained since he became leader nine and half years ago. There is little doubt that he is an electoral asset.
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The Neil tweet is just a statement of the obvious.
Whilst Tim Montgomerie is not exactly Dave's closest ally and confidante is he?
Whatever I think about Dave, I hardly think anyone could say "he's wanted out". All the evidence is he still rather enjoys his jolly job of "being PM" (which is part of the problem!)
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4412608.ece
He was asked directly, do you enjoy the job of being PM? He paused, he thought for a second or two, and then waffled with a total non-answer about rewarding doing public service and work left to do. It was clear the answer was actually no I don't really enjoy it and there wasn't any real passion in what he said either about public service either.
Can you imagine Thatcher being asked you know his PM lark, you enjoy it...she would have ripped the interviewer a new one. She lived and breathed for the job, Brown lived and breathed to get the job, Cameron doesn't.
There are actually positives to somebody running government without meddling in every decision, without having your own cabinet looking like they might shit themselves. But the thing is to get to that position, you have to have some real fight. Cameron didn't really fight in 2010, and he isn't now.
If DC makes it clear he's going before a potential 3rd term, his authority starts to bleed away from the second he says it. It's just a countdown from then
No I am not lying....it just happens to be in Canada.....
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/budget-main/article24046411/
I rather doubt we will be reading a similar headline in 2020 (or Labour balanced budget either).
Isn’t this just more of Monti chewing wasps from the side lines?
Sorry it just won't
Until theBBC fill them in of course
1) Do you agree/disagree with the statement that "Oddschecker is not a reliable source when it comes to seat levels"
2) Are there alternative archives of seat levels?
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/03/08/thatcherites-launch-attack-on-taliban-tim/
Deep thought: What if Ed isn't crap?
The "Queen Speech" test, is this man going to stand up and propose a load of dangerous ideological bollocks that will damage my country.
The "Putin" Test ("Is this the man I want to send to represent our country when we are negotiating with Putin"),
The "Cenotaph" test, although not as badly as he predecessor, Mr Foot, but I still winced as his lack of gravitas last Remembrance Sunday.
There are people on the left that pass these tests, but Miliband isn't one of them, Frank Field on the other hand, I might not agree with his positions, but he has integrity, experience of life, and appears to think about the outcome of his policies beyond their political utility.
It seems to ignore that the pool the SNP had to choose from was huge. The Referendum threw up hundreds of tireless, quality, switched on campaigners. That's where people like Mhairi Black and Chris Law came from. The SNP has some real talent in this new line up, talent not previously in the party but sourced from a huge pool.
But this is increasing drowned out by the tedious cutandpastery of various activists desperate to tell us about how wonderful their party is and what the latest line to take is.
The problem is that many of the things that they are passionate about are in the hands of Holyrood already. They do not care much for Union or English affairs, yet that is what they will spend time on.
Intelligent, committed albeit parochial people will get bored quickly discussing the Dawlish railway or Hospital reconfiguration in Leicester. They will either fail to turn up much (which would give effective EVFEL) or would get up to the variety of hijinks that bored intelligent people do. I think that they will get frustrated pretty quickly.
Con 5/10: rather directionless, and self contradictory, but no major gaffes: "Austerity or Unicorns? We can give you both"
Lab 5/10: A strange combination of earnest gimmickry and agreement with the Tories over key issues (austerity and Trident) that activists and supporters do not believe in.
LD 3/10: Invisible and not making progress
UKIP 4/10: Farage failed to capitalise on debates and "major party" status or to ignite either immigration or Europe as major election issues. Retreated to speaking to usual suspects and shore up the core vote.
Greens 4/10: not really engaged outside the student population.
SNP: 9/10 Sturgeon proving a far more effective leader than Salmond and a battle hardened campaigner; has made devolution issues and constitutional settlement central to the campaign for the first time since the 19th Century Irish Home rule paralysis.
The public are largely bored and unengaged by what is on offer outside Scotland. It is not just Cameron that is uninspired, he matches the mood of the country: resignation to austerity, a recognition that the economy is looking up and a vague sense of disgruntlement about the modern world.
The LibDems DESPERATELY need a leaked copy to surface in the next few days.....
Cameron will leave after the 2017 Referendum is my guess - whatever the outcome.
"...given the well-known differential between ‘best prime minister’ questions comparing David Cameron and Ed Miliband. One could be forgiven for assuming that David Cameron is therefore an asset for his party.
However, less than 30% of respondents tend to opt for David Cameron in ‘best prime minister’ questions (lower than average Conservative vote intention), and ratings of Cameron on YouGov’s ‘doing well or badly’ leadership question are consistently net negative (and have been since 2010).
This is borne out in BES questions on leadership as well. On a BES dislike-like scale, where 0 = strongly dislike and 10 = strongly like, David Cameron’s mean score is 4.0, Ed Miliband’s is 3.7, Nick Clegg’s is 3.3 and Nigel Farage’s is 3.1. We should be cautious before concluding that David Cameron has an unequivocal leadership advantage."
http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/conservative-assets-and-liabilities/
"There has been no grand vision, no effort to ensure that the electorate learnt to love capitalism, no genuine attempt at kick-starting an ownership society. With less than three months before the election, it is now too late for a change of course. Yet the rot set in in 2005, when Mr Cameron became Tory leader."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11407030/The-Tories-are-paying-the-price-for-their-lack-of-a-grand-vision.html
It is one thing that could revive the LDs. Being the party that was anti-war and called out the fictions of Blair and Campell will play well. (How does Campbell survive or even sleep at night?; why do not interviewers pull him up for his proven mendacity?).
I think we all already know what Chilcott will say : New Labour dragged us into a war on a lie so Blair could cosy up to Bush.
But I think the country wants to move on. Blair is irrelevant now and the country wants to forget him and all his works.
The LibDems desperately need some sort of something in the favour in the next few days.
And it won’t come from anything Clegg’s associated with!
Sorry I'll repeat that, I couldn't quite hear your message .... turn up the volume Tim for the "Quiet Man".
Al "45 Minutes" Campbell seems to be trying to get himself in the news again recently, what chance someone in the media might ask him some probing questions about the delay to Chilcot's report?
It is entirely possible that on May 8th we will discover that one party or other has won this hidden campaign and will be measuring up the curtains in Downing Street. Or they may have wasted their money.
My own limited view is that the Conservative Party's youtube videos (and US-style attack ads) are better than Labour's, but I'm no expert.
On-topic, I'd be mildly surprised if David Cameron's wanting out changes a single vote. It has been known for some time, and in any case there is no bogeyman among his likely successors with whom Labour can scare the children. The Conservatives came a cropper with "vote Blair: get Brown" when they tried it. Perhaps the blue team might even turn it to their advantage if they can subtly hint to previously identified pro- or anti-EU voters that the likely next leader will be Europhile or Eurosceptic (and similarly for other issues on which wavering supporters have expressed concerns).
On (rather lame) topic, Tim M doesn't like Dave C - shock horror.
For balance, perhaps the next topic can be Dan Hodges doesn't like Ed M
What has been noticeable at work is how rarely there is any mention of the election.
Voter registration has been weird, I registered my wife and I but left off my brother - he used to live with us - but is now in Hungary.
They sent him a few reminders which we ignored - but he clearly is still on the register.
2 weeks to go and my wife has already voted by post.
I know Tim M isn't very popular on here, but how much credibility does he have with political correspondents?
Since I started taking an interest in politics and helped count votes in the 1964 GE when Labour won after a long period of Conservative rule (you've never had it so good " etc )... this is the most detached GE i can recall.
A GE to lose and pick up the pieces when the Government implodes ...
I did not have intimate relations with that web site !!
I wonder what the record for number of seats changing hands is? If Labour do have a good night the total seat churn is going to be high.
Tory Majority (or total, say 320+) - phone pollsters (ICM, Lord A, Comres) to start banging out consistent tory leads of 4%-6% - Online polls and the pollsters that have tended to overstate Labour (Survation etc.) to swing to a 1%-3% Con Lead. No polls in the final week showing Labour leads. If the non registered voters favours tories as I suspect it might, this may just about get them home.
Labour Majority - Don't see this a viable scenario from here. Would need a seismic event to occur.
Tory Minority (295-320) - A 1% to 2% swing from polling as it is from LAB to CON, with no LD revival to achieve this.
Labour Minority (265-290) - Pretty much where we are now, but to perform better than UNS in marginals.
Badly Hung Parliament with no viable stable government (CON 250-290, LAB 240-265). Where we are now, with any LD revival or UKIP out performing expectations, possible making this more likely.
Tim Montgomerie has been carping from the sidelines since the last election because there was no majority.I seem to remember a lot of analysis at that time saying it was a huge jump and practically impossible for Conservatives to gain a majority from their low base .In fact they made record gains.
For all Camerons faults, and yes I would like more Conservative policies ,I would never vote UKIP and risk another socialist government. I lived through the horrors of the seventies, and worked on the frontline in the NHS/social services during the whole of the Blair years and it was dire .Targets,managers,bed blockers ,MRSA,and Labours control freak mentality was not a good mix.Everone was constantly stressed.
I was born in and lived until recently in the socialist borough of Newham which has always been 100 %
Labour ,and its become less prosperous and poorer over those years. Sad to see it go downhill .It has become more run down and I include Stratford which is an absolute mess since the building of Westfield and the Olympic Park.
So I have first hand experience of Labours policies in action over many years and its not good.
I for one would offer you 11/10 Labour most seats
I suppose that, like many people, the prospect of having real power to effect the change I believe in is attractive. But politicians delude themselves if they think they'll get real lasting power. And so all political careers end in failure. Which leaves me wondering what sort of personality type is attracted to politics these days. It's not just showbiz for uglies - it's becoming showbiz for weirdos. Maybe Blair was smart to realise that being PM is perhaps only an entry ticket to things more valuable and rewarding.
Mild, possibly unsettled.
Verification chance - less than 1%
The real gap between the Tories and Labour is pretty much in the margin of error so far as economic policy, borrowing and priorities for spending is concerned. We are not getting a real choice (possibly because there isn't one). This is why neither Labour's back to the 30s nonsense and the Tories debt will run out of control hysteria are not finding traction. Both are unconvincing hyperbole about a change of emphasis.
Whoever wins this election will continue with a policy of austerity light, will continue to borrow too much until the next crash comes along (October according to Hunchman), will remain in and frustrated by the EU, will underspend on our defence, will continue to over regulate business, will run scared of the teaching unions and will continue to shove around the deck chairs on the great ship NHS.
This is not necessarily a bad thing. Sharp ideological shifts from one extreme to another are not good for the country. I remember the nonsense with British Steel being privatised, nationalised and privatised until there was very little left to play with. But it doesn't make politics particularly interesting at the moment. Except in Scotland of course where it is far too interesting for my tastes.
Why? Not for any lack of quality in the candidate (once of this parish, incidentally), nor because I don't think the outcome matters: it does. I think maybe it's been the nature of the campaign. It needs to be more than simply about management and national accountancy. Where are the ideas worth fighting for? There are aspects of this election, and this campaign, which are reminiscent of the 1929 election where Baldwin went into it on the uninspiring slogan of "Safety First" (and lost, to a subsequent minority Labour government).
I have known Hinckley since 1975 when I was buying hosiery for Sainsburys and John Lewis - The Lib Dems are based in an old hosiery factory - very nostalgic!
What's happened to Labour in Scotland could easily happen to them in the North, and even parts of Wales.
Meanwhile, you'll have a Conservative opposition with a relatively strong parliamentary presence, probably not leeching much more to UKIP (perhaps gaining substantial votes and members back) in opposition to the Labour-led government under a new leader - probably Boris.
The next parliament could run Labour into the ground as a party of national government.
Mrs JackW and I are partly responsible for their recent demise as IIRC the last time we ventured across their portal was several years back in the large store in Borehamwood where quite inexplicably there were no staff available to wheel our trolley for us !!!!!
Are you still in ladies underwear ?!?
14 days 14 hours 14 minutes 14 seconds
With the vote in England looking much closer than that,rather delusional to think the Tories will get 300 seats.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/when-april-turns-to-may-what-seat.html
I'm not presently intending to put up any more posts before the election, though I might do so if I find that I have something specific to say about some new development.
Seriously...
HE`ll probably lose in London if he stood here a third time.
One thing we can all vouch for. In every contest, Ed has been underestimated, to his opponents surprise. One of them was his own brother. The other is the Conservative Party and its near rabid supporters.
"Ed is Crap" - we don't see that too often now.
I'm a fan of Tesco - another unpopular opinion!
Socialism did nothing for me ,who was born into abject poverty.I was lucky enough to go to a grammar school in one of the most deprived part of the country ,still is, and got I on through my own hard work.
Socialism levels people down and is therefore oppressive .Oh we'll give you money,a basic home etc but stay down there where you are ,don't aspire to do better unless of course you are one of the well off elites.
Sorry if that doesn't fit with your socialist utopia.I have lived it.
And it could well happen, There are few candidates amongst the Conservative hopefuls who stand a chance of bridging the gap between the Europhiles and Europhobes; the hardliners and the wets. If the Conservatives move to the right under a new leader, they will gain support from loudmouths but lose it from the public; if they stay where they are then the loudmouths will rebel.
The way the Conservatives argue amongst themselves and lack of party discipline is terrible for the party, but I quite like it: it is better for democracy than the way Labour run themselves most of the time.
No "Cry Freedom" moment, with the exception of, we must all appreciate and enjoy, the SNP partying.
Ed Miliband has been campaigning on Social Inequality and Fairness from day one of his leadership.Initially dismissed as leftist,it is this idea which has gained currency during the campaign and helped Labour shrug off the rabid Tory attacks.