If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed. Given it's the political editor of the Sun tweeting it early, it's unlikely to be a move to Labour.
But wolf has been cried so many times on polls, I'm always cautious now.
I predict Lab will still have a lead, but the supplementaries are horrific for Lab/great for the Tories on the North Britain separatists influencing the UK govt.
If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed. Given it's the political editor of the Sun tweeting it early, it's unlikely to be a move to Labour.
But wolf has been cried so many times on polls, I'm always cautious now.
I predict Lab will still have a lead, but the supplementaries are horrific for Lab/great for the Tories on the North Britain separatists influencing the UK govt.
I have just seen the Tory candidate for Eastleigh. She is one foxy lady!
I drove into eastleigh from hedge end today. 6 Labour signs 3 Ukip 2 lib dems. Absolutely no Tory signs. Even more surprising was the 2 billboards from Labour clearly going for the Ukip vote - candidate will protect NHS by stopping nasty immigrants.
I have just seen the Tory candidate for Eastleigh. She is one foxy lady!
I drove into eastleigh from hedge end today. 6 Labour signs 3 Ukip 2 lib dems. Absolutely no Tory signs. Even more surprising was the 2 billboards from Labour clearly going for the Ukip vote - candidate will protect NHS by stopping nasty immigrants.
If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed. Given it's the political editor of the Sun tweeting it early, it's unlikely to be a move to Labour.
But wolf has been cried so many times on polls, I'm always cautious now.
I predict Lab will still have a lead, but the supplementaries are horrific for Lab/great for the Tories on the North Britain separatists influencing the UK govt.
No. It'll be a Con lead.
I'll go 36 - 32.
I'm inclined to agree with Pulpstar. The Sun can't resist bigging up polls that are favourable for their team.
If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed. Given it's the political editor of the Sun tweeting it early, it's unlikely to be a move to Labour.
But wolf has been cried so many times on polls, I'm always cautious now.
I predict Lab will still have a lead, but the supplementaries are horrific for Lab/great for the Tories on the North Britain separatists influencing the UK govt.
If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed. Given it's the political editor of the Sun tweeting it early, it's unlikely to be a move to Labour.
But wolf has been cried so many times on polls, I'm always cautious now.
I predict Lab will still have a lead, but the supplementaries are horrific for Lab/great for the Tories on the North Britain separatists influencing the UK govt.
Think you may be right.
Thing is, the supplementaries aren't changing a thing. Miliband has reduced his disapproval from around -50 to -19 but it's not resulted in any change to the polling. The E&W voting looks fixed.
If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed.
I hope so, in whatever direction, but I don't think we can be certain something's changed. After all, he could argue that a poll showing no change, and thus that the fears of a Lab-SNP power sharing deal is not the game changer some are hoping for, is pretty interesting.
As I say I would hope from his bigging it up that something has changed, but as you say, best to be cautious with YouGov. Probably just a MOE change after several Lab leads.
Fair points. It's the fact it's the political editor of the Sun ramping it that swings me, but you could well be right for the reasons you mention.
If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed. Given it's the political editor of the Sun tweeting it early, it's unlikely to be a move to Labour.
But wolf has been cried so many times on polls, I'm always cautious now.
I predict Lab will still have a lead, but the supplementaries are horrific for Lab/great for the Tories on the North Britain separatists influencing the UK govt.
Reading Newton-Dunn's Tweet that is a possible interpretation but I still think it is on the VI. Only 2% lead last night.
I have just seen the Tory candidate for Eastleigh. She is one foxy lady!
I drove into eastleigh from hedge end today. 6 Labour signs 3 Ukip 2 lib dems. Absolutely no Tory signs. Even more surprising was the 2 billboards from Labour clearly going for the Ukip vote - candidate will protect NHS by stopping nasty immigrants.
Labour signs in Eastleigh O_O ?!
I thought they stood no chance but perhaps they are trying to convert the Ukip vote from by election. The other thing I thought was that Southampton Itchen is next door and either they are purposefully trying to target that or accidentally put up posters as well. Was in Itchen too but didn't see any posters or signs there.
Just looking at the video of the Japanese MagLev train. I know there are all sorts of good reasons why not, but I'd much prefer HS2 to be exploring new technology like that. Even better would be the evacuated tube ideas of RM Salter. (http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P4874.pdf)
I know the enthusiasm for madcap ideas went out in the 70s, but for something so fundamental as trains I'd be happy to see a substantial national spend if it was a real game-changing idea.
At least triple the price and double the timespan (quadruple if you want to go with 'our' own Maglev technology rather than buy in Transrapid tech). And it will run from Old Oak Common to Solihull.
I have just seen the Tory candidate for Eastleigh. She is one foxy lady!
I drove into eastleigh from hedge end today. 6 Labour signs 3 Ukip 2 lib dems. Absolutely no Tory signs. Even more surprising was the 2 billboards from Labour clearly going for the Ukip vote - candidate will protect NHS by stopping nasty immigrants.
Labour signs in Eastleigh O_O ?!
I thought they stood no chance but perhaps they are trying to convert the Ukip vote from by election. The other thing I thought was that Southampton Itchen is next door and either they are purposefully trying to target that or accidentally put up posters as well. Was in Itchen too but didn't see any posters or signs there.
From Bursledon towards Eastleigh, some Lib Dem posters and one Tory farmer who always puts up posters, no Lab or UKIP.
If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed. Given it's the political editor of the Sun tweeting it early, it's unlikely to be a move to Labour.
But wolf has been cried so many times on polls, I'm always cautious now.
I predict Lab will still have a lead, but the supplementaries are horrific for Lab/great for the Tories on the North Britain separatists influencing the UK govt.
I'm surprised that you (and other PBers) take this view, especially having regard to the the fact that Labour led by only 1% last night. For a YouGov (of all pollsters) to produce an INTERESTING poll for once, suggests something far sexier than a few tweaks within the supplementaries! No, this has to be something much more dramatic surely? I agree with Pulpstar and am going for a Tory lead of 3% - 4%.
If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed. Given it's the political editor of the Sun tweeting it early, it's unlikely to be a move to Labour.
But wolf has been cried so many times on polls, I'm always cautious now.
I predict Lab will still have a lead, but the supplementaries are horrific for Lab/great for the Tories on the North Britain separatists influencing the UK govt.
Just looking at the video of the Japanese MagLev train. I know there are all sorts of good reasons why not, but I'd much prefer HS2 to be exploring new technology like that. Even better would be the evacuated tube ideas of RM Salter. (http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P4874.pdf)
I know the enthusiasm for madcap ideas went out in the 70s, but for something so fundamental as trains I'd be happy to see a substantial national spend if it was a real game-changing idea.
But maglev is terrible at fixing the track capacity issues which is the primary reason for HS2.
A maglev track cannot run onto other cities that don't have maglev track that HS2 does.
Also, the speeds wouldn't actually be quicker, the limitations are curvature and acceleration given the human body didn't appreciate massive acceleration around corners, up and down hills, away from stations or breaking to slow down.
Great is you've limitless budget, don't care about blight and aren't interested in resolving capacity issues, if you're only interested in speed, that isn't what HS2 is planned to achieve though.
If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed. Given it's the political editor of the Sun tweeting it early, it's unlikely to be a move to Labour.
But wolf has been cried so many times on polls, I'm always cautious now.
I predict Lab will still have a lead, but the supplementaries are horrific for Lab/great for the Tories on the North Britain separatists influencing the UK govt.
'Wiser minds than mine' is I think a Charlie Kennedy expression. It seems that the explanation of why the market for Tories to have most seats is so short, and Ed to be next PM is so short too. Laying them both, but I'm not comfortable with it.
Anyway another top-up of the betfair account to accommodate the strange views of others. (I don't win more than a crust on politics).
I think they're overdoing it. It really isn't as simple as adding Lab+SNP+PC+SDLP+Green and seeing if it makes 323. Internal Labour dynamics will be key if that equation is satisfied yet Mili is 25 seats and 2% behind.
Interesting programme on radio 4 at present on how professional gamblers work spotters to win in play betting. Worth catching, are there enough bets to make that worthwhile in politics?
Anyone have a link to the losses and gains to the electoral roll? I saw a few earlier (Loughborough l think must be Con hold now) but I would be interested in scanning a few more.
If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed. Given it's the political editor of the Sun tweeting it early, it's unlikely to be a move to Labour.
But wolf has been cried so many times on polls, I'm always cautious now.
I predict Lab will still have a lead, but the supplementaries are horrific for Lab/great for the Tories on the North Britain separatists influencing the UK govt.
I'm surprised that you (and other PBers) take this view, especially having regard to the the fact that Labour led by only 1% last night. For a YouGov (of all pollsters) to produce an INTERESTING poll for once, suggests something far sexier than a few tweaks within the supplementaries! No, this has to be something much more dramatic surely? I agree with Pulpstar and am going for a Tory lead of 3% - 4%.
Ah! Are YouGov doing the old 2% trick that they did with the Indy-ref.
That's the biggest MoE variation without anything fundamentally changing possible.
MOE on the new YouGov methodology seems to be about 1%
I mean, seriously, when they poll me they 99.5% know what they're going to get. That must be the case for the best part of half their sample, and they could probably predict another quarter with 80%+ certainty.
'Wiser minds than mine' is I think a Charlie Kennedy expression. It seems that the explanation of why the market for Tories to have most seats is so short, and Ed to be next PM is so short too. Laying them both, but I'm not comfortable with it.
Anyway another top-up of the betfair account to accommodate the strange views of others. (I don't win more than a crust on politics).
Feels so odd to lay Tories most seats and Ed PM, but the gap is overcooked now even by my reckoning.
But maglev is terrible at fixing the track capacity issues which is the primary reason for HS2.
A maglev track cannot run onto other cities that don't have maglev track that HS2 does.
Also, the speeds wouldn't actually be quicker, the limitations are curvature and acceleration given the human body didn't appreciate massive acceleration around corners, up and down hills, away from stations or breaking to slow down.
Great is you've limitless budget, don't care about blight and aren't interested in resolving capacity issues, if you're only interested in speed, that isn't what HS2 is planned to achieve though.
Fast trains = more capacity. Fluid dynamics really.
There's no problem if you build straight lines. You could easily build banked tracks within the tunnels to mitigate that. There is a slight problem with the 'if we crash you're deader that dead".
Tunnels don't 'blight', and as mentioned above fast=more capacity. However cost is really problematic.
Just looking at the video of the Japanese MagLev train. I know there are all sorts of good reasons why not, but I'd much prefer HS2 to be exploring new technology like that. Even better would be the evacuated tube ideas of RM Salter. (http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P4874.pdf)
I know the enthusiasm for madcap ideas went out in the 70s, but for something so fundamental as trains I'd be happy to see a substantial national spend if it was a real game-changing idea.
But maglev is terrible at fixing the track capacity issues which is the primary reason for HS2.
A maglev track cannot run onto other cities that don't have maglev track that HS2 does.
Also, the speeds wouldn't actually be quicker, the limitations are curvature and acceleration given the human body didn't appreciate massive acceleration around corners, up and down hills, away from stations or breaking to slow down.
Great is you've limitless budget, don't care about blight and aren't interested in resolving capacity issues, if you're only interested in speed, that isn't what HS2 is planned to achieve though.
Absolutely correct.
ISTR the Japanese planned Maglev line will run mostly in tunnel - 70% I think - to get over some of those issues.
If it's the daily Yougov, that means something's changed. Given it's the political editor of the Sun tweeting it early, it's unlikely to be a move to Labour.
But wolf has been cried so many times on polls, I'm always cautious now.
I agree. But I read it as meaning that they've asked a separate question emphasizing that issue - "If you thought Labnour would depend on the SNP, would that make you more/less likely to vote for them?" or the like. I'll be surprised if there's a huge shift in VI.
@greenmiranda: 'Broadcasters are now covering the election as if there is no negative consequence to voting Conservative.' Discuss http://t.co/j7FRkKe3Ta
Betfair Tory odds definitely moving in sharply, and continuing to do so.
The YouGov Poll must be the most dramatic of the campaign so far
Unless its Tories by > 5%, I don't think anything warrants thoughts of dramatic shift. Although, YouGov is generally pretty steady in terms of swings, Labour have been up 4% with YouGov and within a day or two it is back to level pegging.
But maglev is terrible at fixing the track capacity issues which is the primary reason for HS2.
A maglev track cannot run onto other cities that don't have maglev track that HS2 does.
Also, the speeds wouldn't actually be quicker, the limitations are curvature and acceleration given the human body didn't appreciate massive acceleration around corners, up and down hills, away from stations or breaking to slow down.
Great is you've limitless budget, don't care about blight and aren't interested in resolving capacity issues, if you're only interested in speed, that isn't what HS2 is planned to achieve though.
Fast trains = more capacity. Fluid dynamics really.
There's no problem if you build straight lines. You could easily build banked tracks within the tunnels to mitigate that. There is a slight problem with the 'if we crash you're deader that dead".
Tunnels don't 'blight', and as mentioned above fast=more capacity. However cost is really problematic.
Simply not true.
The tube has huge capacity because ALL the trains run at exactly the same speed and all stop at exactly the same stops on the routes.
The WCML has not TRACK (not seat) capacity as freight, commuter and intercity services all share the tracks in a massively inefficient manner.
You seem to be missing the whole point of HS2.
By taking the faster services away from the WCML and ECML you leave slower commuter and freight services on the old lines, because you have taken away the faster services that gobble up track capacity you can run many many more slower services - at the same speed as the other commuter and freight services - see the tube- adding vast amounts of capacity.
Meanwhile, with HS2 tracks to Brum, Manc and Leeds you can continue to Liverpool, Glasgow, York, Edinburgh etc etc on the old tracks, removing those fast services off the old WCML.
Remind me, if you ran a maglev train from London to Manchester, how many Liverpool to London services would it be possible to remove of the WCML using that infrastructure?
Reality is maglev is massively inefficient as you need to build new infrastructure to every town and city you want to services and cannot make use of existing infrastructure.
There is a reason that thousands of miles of HS tracks are built every year around the world and very little maglev and it is not because transport planners are clueless.
But maglev is terrible at fixing the track capacity issues which is the primary reason for HS2.
A maglev track cannot run onto other cities that don't have maglev track that HS2 does.
Also, the speeds wouldn't actually be quicker, the limitations are curvature and acceleration given the human body didn't appreciate massive acceleration around corners, up and down hills, away from stations or breaking to slow down.
Great is you've limitless budget, don't care about blight and aren't interested in resolving capacity issues, if you're only interested in speed, that isn't what HS2 is planned to achieve though.
Fast trains = more capacity. Fluid dynamics really.
There's no problem if you build straight lines. You could easily build banked tracks within the tunnels to mitigate that. There is a slight problem with the 'if we crash you're deader that dead".
Tunnels don't 'blight', and as mentioned above fast=more capacity. However cost is really problematic.
"Fast trains = more capacity."
AIUI that is very wrong, although less wrong if they ever get ERTMS level 3 up and running (although IANAE).
The reason is the way block signalling works, and the vastly increased stopping distances for high-speed trains. Basically, you can fit more slow-speed trains on a line due to the fact they have shorter stopping distances. High-speed trains need longer blocks, or to take up two or three blocks, whereas a slow train may only take up one block, allowing the other blocks to be filled with other trains.
Where high speed routes win for capacity is in separating slow-moving freight and frequently-stopping local passenger traffic from the high-speed traffic.This frees up capacity on both lines.
I'm quite serious about 1% being MOE on the new YouGov methodology. Maybe 1.5%. I think that's why they introduced the new methodology, in fact - to make sure they were picking up genuine switchers.
YouGov have basically had this 34.5%-33.5% to Labour ever since they changed. Anything substantially different would be very interesting, though naturally you'd want to see it more-or-less repeated tomorrow.
Betfair Tory odds definitely moving in sharply, and continuing to do so.
The YouGov Poll must be the most dramatic of the campaign so far
Unless its Tories by > 5%, I don't think anything warrants thoughts of dramatic shift. Although, YouGov is generally pretty steady in terms of swings, Labour have been up 4% with YouGov and within a day or two it is back to level pegging.
Quite. Still, even something like Tories by 3 or even two would break up the recent string of monotonous results, even if it did not mean much at all.
A new poster for the Con council seats of Evington and North Evington vandalised the day it went up on Humberstone rd.
I wore my tartan tie (usually kept for Burns night) today. No animosity to Scots or indeed remarks about the election from either patients or staff.
One of my recently naturalised foreign Doctors popped his head into my office to sing God save the Queen.. I looked blank for a bit until the penny dropped: the Queens birthday. On the one hand he has assimilated both knowledge and loyalty, but on the other hand he has not assimilated British reticence in these matters...
Just looking at the video of the Japanese MagLev train. I know there are all sorts of good reasons why not, but I'd much prefer HS2 to be exploring new technology like that. Even better would be the evacuated tube ideas of RM Salter. (http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P4874.pdf)
I know the enthusiasm for madcap ideas went out in the 70s, but for something so fundamental as trains I'd be happy to see a substantial national spend if it was a real game-changing idea.
Yes. A hundred times yes.
There are issues that others are discovering with Maglev, and the latest incarnation of a partially evacuated tube is Elon Musk's (Tesla, SpaceX) Hyperloop system intended to go from San Fran to LA, but the point is that we British are supposed to be good at this stuff.
< rant > We have some of the best engineers and aerodynamicists in the world here working for the likes of BAE, Airbus, RR and the F1 teams; what happened to the idea that we are innovators and world leaders in new technology?? Does everyone forget that we made Concorde, the hovercraft, cars like the E-Type and more recently the McLaren F1 and P1??? These things require vision and leadership from the top to get right, there's no reason why we can't be the world's best at new train technology too, if only there were the will to do it. < /rant >
Comments
I'll go 36 - 32.
Thing is, the supplementaries aren't changing a thing. Miliband has reduced his disapproval from around -50 to -19 but it's not resulted in any change to the polling. The E&W voting looks fixed.
1950 +85
1955 -18
1966 -52
1974F +13
1983 -60
2001 +1
Miliband to beat Wilson?
Ed seems to have a fanbase amongst the adult ladies as well. I am truly baffled by women.
I will ask my wife later, and report back.
But I find the fact that 17 year olds fancy Miliband less baffling than the fact that ~35% of 18-110 year olds want to vote for his party...
The latest evacuated tube vactrain idea is Hyperloop:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop
As I pointed out earlier, money can be wasted on some rather (ahem) interesting ideas:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracked_Hovercraft
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAC-2qUFois
For a YouGov (of all pollsters) to produce an INTERESTING poll for once, suggests something far sexier than a few tweaks within the supplementaries!
No, this has to be something much more dramatic surely? I agree with Pulpstar and am going for a Tory lead of 3% - 4%.
Pretty much all the bookies also slashed their odds on EdPM today and there's £5k waiting to be matched on betfair @ 1.79.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election/bet-history/ed-miliband/today
A maglev track cannot run onto other cities that don't have maglev track that HS2 does.
Also, the speeds wouldn't actually be quicker, the limitations are curvature and acceleration given the human body didn't appreciate massive acceleration around corners, up and down hills, away from stations or breaking to slow down.
Great is you've limitless budget, don't care about blight and aren't interested in resolving capacity issues, if you're only interested in speed, that isn't what HS2 is planned to achieve though.
Anyway another top-up of the betfair account to accommodate the strange views of others. (I don't win more than a crust on politics).
That's the biggest MoE variation without anything fundamentally changing possible.
Anyone have a link to the losses and gains to the electoral roll? I saw a few earlier (Loughborough l think must be Con hold now) but I would be interested in scanning a few more.
I mean, seriously, when they poll me they 99.5% know what they're going to get. That must be the case for the best part of half their sample, and they could probably predict another quarter with 80%+ certainty.
Just a tweak mind.
There's no problem if you build straight lines. You could easily build banked tracks within the tunnels to mitigate that. There is a slight problem with the 'if we crash you're deader that dead".
Tunnels don't 'blight', and as mentioned above fast=more capacity. However cost is really problematic.
ISTR the Japanese planned Maglev line will run mostly in tunnel - 70% I think - to get over some of those issues.
The YouGov Poll must be the most dramatic of the campaign so far
No one other than the Sun/Sunday Times and YouGov know what the figures are.
The tube has huge capacity because ALL the trains run at exactly the same speed and all stop at exactly the same stops on the routes.
The WCML has not TRACK (not seat) capacity as freight, commuter and intercity services all share the tracks in a massively inefficient manner.
You seem to be missing the whole point of HS2.
By taking the faster services away from the WCML and ECML you leave slower commuter and freight services on the old lines, because you have taken away the faster services that gobble up track capacity you can run many many more slower services - at the same speed as the other commuter and freight services - see the tube- adding vast amounts of capacity.
Meanwhile, with HS2 tracks to Brum, Manc and Leeds you can continue to Liverpool, Glasgow, York, Edinburgh etc etc on the old tracks, removing those fast services off the old WCML.
Remind me, if you ran a maglev train from London to Manchester, how many Liverpool to London services would it be possible to remove of the WCML using that infrastructure?
Reality is maglev is massively inefficient as you need to build new infrastructure to every town and city you want to services and cannot make use of existing infrastructure.
There is a reason that thousands of miles of HS tracks are built every year around the world and very little maglev and it is not because transport planners are clueless.
AIUI that is very wrong, although less wrong if they ever get ERTMS level 3 up and running (although IANAE).
The reason is the way block signalling works, and the vastly increased stopping distances for high-speed trains. Basically, you can fit more slow-speed trains on a line due to the fact they have shorter stopping distances. High-speed trains need longer blocks, or to take up two or three blocks, whereas a slow train may only take up one block, allowing the other blocks to be filled with other trains.
Where high speed routes win for capacity is in separating slow-moving freight and frequently-stopping local passenger traffic from the high-speed traffic.This frees up capacity on both lines.
YouGov have basically had this 34.5%-33.5% to Labour ever since they changed. Anything substantially different would be very interesting, though naturally you'd want to see it more-or-less repeated tomorrow.
A new poster for the Con council seats of Evington and North Evington vandalised the day it went up on Humberstone rd.
I wore my tartan tie (usually kept for Burns night) today. No animosity to Scots or indeed remarks about the election from either patients or staff.
One of my recently naturalised foreign Doctors popped his head into my office to sing God save the Queen.. I looked blank for a bit until the penny dropped: the Queens birthday. On the one hand he has assimilated both knowledge and loyalty, but on the other hand he has not assimilated British reticence in these matters...
There are issues that others are discovering with Maglev, and the latest incarnation of a partially evacuated tube is Elon Musk's (Tesla, SpaceX) Hyperloop system intended to go from San Fran to LA, but the point is that we British are supposed to be good at this stuff.
< rant >
We have some of the best engineers and aerodynamicists in the world here working for the likes of BAE, Airbus, RR and the F1 teams; what happened to the idea that we are innovators and world leaders in new technology?? Does everyone forget that we made Concorde, the hovercraft, cars like the E-Type and more recently the McLaren F1 and P1??? These things require vision and leadership from the top to get right, there's no reason why we can't be the world's best at new train technology too, if only there were the will to do it.
< /rant >