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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf’s Tuesday afternoon’s take and LAB move from a 2% defi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf’s Tuesday afternoon’s take and LAB move from a 2% deficit to a 2% lead with TNS

LAB retakes the lead with TNS

LAB 34% (+2), CON 32% (-2), LD 8% (-1), UKIP 15% (+1), GREEN 5% (0), OTHER 6% (+1

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    Good cartoon by the way.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Nice little cartoon Marf.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    DavidL said:

    On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.

    Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.
  • Dave may soon get to be what he wants, an ex-PM
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    edited April 2015

    DavidL said:

    On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.

    Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.
    Fair point.

    Edit. Actually I fear it is worse than you say. They have been uninterested not just disinterested in mass child abuse.*

    * Pedant star for the day? Tick.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    FPT
    Pong said:

    MikeK said:

    Laura Kuenssberg ✔ @bbclaurak

    Tebbit suggests Cameron is unlike politicians of previous generations who were 'real men' ...OUCH!

    What is a 'real man'? Who defines it? What can be unexpected of an unreal man?
    Norman tebbit lives in norman tebbit's own little world, surrounded by other norman tebbit-type people who think norman tebbit-like thoughts.

    The problem, at least for norman tebbit, is that his world no longer exists.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Yes but let's talk about TNS.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    MikeK said:

    Laura Kuenssberg ✔ @bbclaurak

    Tebbit suggests Cameron is unlike politicians of previous generations who were 'real men' ...OUCH!

    What is a 'real man'? Who defines it? What can be unexpected of an unreal man?
    How 'real' is Dom Morris? (The Conservative candidate for Exeter describes himself as a "Real person for Parliament")
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    FPT:
    DavidL said:

    Is Ed left wing? Not really.

    He is delusional about the power of the State to do good; he is naïve about how regulation and bureaucracy can make things better; he leaps onto band wagons with almost no thought at all as to the consequences but left wing? I don't really see it.

    In the past we had left wing politicians in this country. They had principles, beliefs and a vision of a future society which delusional or not they were clear that they had to work towards. I disagreed with their vision but I don't see anything like that kind of profound thinking on either side of the divide in the managerial era we now live in. Agree with them or not calling Ed left wing is frankly an insult to their memory and beliefs. He is an unconvincing managerial wannabe. He could still do a lot of damage though.

    It's debateable whether Ed is even as "left-wing" as Angela Merkel.
  • Been out... not a normal lead from my mortgage introducer news feed. Sounds worth a watch...

    Labour in mansion tax meltdown

    http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/252330/5/Industry_in_depth/Labour_in_mansion_tax_meltdown.htm

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,947

    Dave may soon get to be what he wants, an ex-PM

    The voters are mean. They never give politicians what they want......
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Yes but let's talk about TNS.
    I suspect that the real lead with TNS is 0%, and its poll just shifts back and forth. MORI and Populus consistently give small Labour leads as (for the moment) does Yougov. Opinium, ICM, Ashcroft, and Com Res give consistent Conservative leads (some of them fair-sized ones).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Nice cartoon, Marf!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?
    LordA is bouncy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,027
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Yes but let's talk about TNS.
    I suspect that the real lead with TNS is 0%, and its poll just shifts back and forth. MORI and Populus consistently give small Labour leads as (for the moment) does Yougov. Opinium, ICM, Ashcroft, and Com Res give consistent Conservative leads (some of them fair-sized ones).
    I think TNS will have been damned lucky if they get that close to the result to be honest.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Well any other ideas from Tory HQ, apart from SNP ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    edited April 2015
    Simple of average of this week's six polls so far = 33.3% each!

    Part-ELBOW says Lab 33.9, Con 33.4 :)

    Take your pick!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    kle4 said:

    Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.

    Are you just determined to be a reverse of the resident Labour pessimists? :p
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2015

    Been out... not a normal lead from my mortgage introducer news feed. Sounds worth a watch...

    Labour in mansion tax meltdown

    http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/252330/5/Industry_in_depth/Labour_in_mansion_tax_meltdown.htm

    LOL, "‘independent experts have verified that the party will raise £1.2bn from the tax in its first full year of operation", but they can't say what the tax rate will be or even whether it applies to the whole value or the value over £2m.

    Staggering to think that people are actually planning to vote for this party.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    Speedy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?
    LordA is bouncy.
    Telephone polls tend to be bouncy.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    FPT @BenM

    » show previous quotes
    Look, if Ed is PM on 8th May I will be cheering very loudly at the demise of Cameron, Osborne and the post crash Tory junta that has done and is doing so much damage to the country. If Cameron is PM then I will be properly terrified. Then it really will be 1992 all over again - we'd be months away from a post Tory election victory, Osborne inspired, economic crash.


    At least win the election before blaming your future failures on the last lot. ( or the bankers...or anyone else for that matter)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.

    If there is no Grexit on election day I doubt any surge for any party is going to happen on the day.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:

    Coalition start point: 360

    Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - These are the seats that make Con, DUP, LD short of 323 according to Election Forecast:

    Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:

    LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.

    Bradford East
    Brent Central
    Manchester, Withington
    Norwich South
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Cardiff Central
    Hornsey and Wood Green
    Leeds North West
    Bristol West

    (10 losses to Lab)

    Orkney is the 1 LD Hold against SNP (10 losses)

    Con losses to Lab.

    6 London (Hendon, Brentford Isleworth, Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central)
    8 NW (Lancaster, Fleetwood, Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Morecambe, Warrington South)
    3 East (Waveney, Bedford, Ipswich)
    2 Yorkshire Humber (Dewsbury, Keighley)
    3 West Mids (Wolves SW, North Warks, Nuneaton)
    2 SW (Plymouth, Stroud)
    2 SE (Hastings, Hove)
    6 East Mids (Erewash, Amber Valley, Sherwood, Lincoln, Amber Valley, Broxtowe)

    Coalition End point: 308.

    Notable CON Holds according to their model:

    Pudsey, Brighton Kemptown, Thurrock (They have a caveat on UKIP modelling mind), Stockton South, DCT, Rossendale and Darwen.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Yes but let's talk about TNS.
    I suspect that the real lead with TNS is 0%, and its poll just shifts back and forth. MORI and Populus consistently give small Labour leads as (for the moment) does Yougov. Opinium, ICM, Ashcroft, and Com Res give consistent Conservative leads (some of them fair-sized ones).
    I think TNS will have been damned lucky if they get that close to the result to be honest.
    At one point, TNS were posting regular hefty Labour leads, but I think that was down to their weightings.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    FPT: Mr. Fenster, indeed.

    FPT: Mr. Jessop, pre-twentieth century? What era are we talking? Ancient Greek? Republican Rome?
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Look, if Ed is PM on 8th May I will be cheering very loudly at the demise of Cameron, Osborne and the post crash Tory junta that has done and is doing so much damage to the country.

    If Cameron is PM then I will be properly terrified. Then it really will be 1992 all over again - we'd be months away from a post Tory election victory, Osborne inspired, economic crash.

    Ok if ED is PM for at least 3 years than I will bet you £1000 that unemployment will be higher by the time he leaves office. You clearly think he is going to be a massive success, so how about it?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    kle4 said:

    Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.

    The idea that the Tories will benefit from a swing-back to the incumbent government is undermined by the fact that they aren't the incumbent. We have a coalition - so previous models might not apply so much.



  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,540
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.

    If there is no Grexit on election day I doubt any surge for any party is going to happen on the day.
    Or perhaps one polling company that produces what looks like an outlier will be proved right.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    UKIP's simple average so far this week = 13.3%

    Part-ELBOW says 13.2%
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Simple of average of this week's six polls so far = 33.3% each!

    Part-ELBOW says Lab 33.9, Con 33.4 :)

    Take your pick!

    I suggest you start to modify your weekly average a little as the election is on a Thursday not a Sunday, so the final week will not be a full week if you start the measurements on a Monday.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Yes but let's talk about TNS.
    I suspect that the real lead with TNS is 0%, and its poll just shifts back and forth. MORI and Populus consistently give small Labour leads as (for the moment) does Yougov. Opinium, ICM, Ashcroft, and Com Res give consistent Conservative leads (some of them fair-sized ones).
    I think TNS will have been damned lucky if they get that close to the result to be honest.
    At one point, TNS were posting regular hefty Labour leads, but I think that was down to their weightings.
    They used to weight to a combination of GE2010 and Euro2014, but now it's just GE2010.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Speedy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?
    LordA is bouncy.
    LordA is probably ICM so I'd combine the two into one 3%.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Been out... not a normal lead from my mortgage introducer news feed. Sounds worth a watch...

    Labour in mansion tax meltdown

    http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/252330/5/Industry_in_depth/Labour_in_mansion_tax_meltdown.htm

    But...but........ What about the 1000 nurses in the English NHS on day 1 or the 10000 was it in Scotland or .....oh you loose track quite easily given the amount of time this has been spent

    Not to worry they can always use the bankers bonus tax....

    Oh? I think I detect a slight fiscal flaw here.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited April 2015

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?
    LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    edited April 2015
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.

    If there is no Grexit on election day I doubt any surge for any party is going to happen on the day.
    Nor do I, but any forecast of Tories most seats seems to rely on it, despite how static things are.
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.

    Are you just determined to be a reverse of the resident Labour pessimists? :p
    I'm kind of stuck with it after years of saying Labour would win; it'd look silly if I changed opinion now.

    On that subject, I have to work the day of the GE, then do the count, then back in to work the next morning, after which I imagine I will pass out - so if I am totally, laughably wrong, an absence in the immediate aftermath will not be down purely to embarrassment.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Speedy said:

    Simple of average of this week's six polls so far = 33.3% each!

    Part-ELBOW says Lab 33.9, Con 33.4 :)

    Take your pick!

    I suggest you start to modify your weekly average a little as the election is on a Thursday not a Sunday, so the final week will not be a full week if you start the measurements on a Monday.
    Actually an ELBOW week runs from Sunday to Saturday. Depends how many polls there will be between Sunday 3rd and Wednesday 6th.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    I wonder how Tebbit would rate Miligeek in the Real Man stakes..
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015
    Moses_ said:

    Been out... not a normal lead from my mortgage introducer news feed. Sounds worth a watch...

    Labour in mansion tax meltdown

    http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/252330/5/Industry_in_depth/Labour_in_mansion_tax_meltdown.htm

    But...but........ What about the 1000 nurses in the English NHS on day 1 or the 10000 was it in Scotland or .....oh you loose track quite easily given the amount of time this has been spent

    Not to worry they can always use the bankers bonus tax....

    Oh? I think I detect a slight fiscal flaw here.
    1000 nurses? Wowsers. Let's remind ourselves that equates to maybe an extra 2 per hospital, or possibly 1 for every 8 GP practices. It's not going to make any noticeable difference.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135

    Speedy said:

    Simple of average of this week's six polls so far = 33.3% each!

    Part-ELBOW says Lab 33.9, Con 33.4 :)

    Take your pick!

    I suggest you start to modify your weekly average a little as the election is on a Thursday not a Sunday, so the final week will not be a full week if you start the measurements on a Monday.
    Actually an ELBOW week runs from Sunday to Saturday. Depends how many polls there will be between Sunday 3rd and Wednesday 6th.
    We already have six this week so far and it's only Tuesday!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    kle4 said:

    Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.

    The idea that the Tories will benefit from a swing-back to the incumbent government is undermined by the fact that they aren't the incumbent. We have a coalition - so previous models might not apply so much.



    As past election analysis points to swingback occurring only on 1/3rd of elections and then only in 1/10th was it enough for a government to win an election, I have to say the odds of swingback saving this government was always low.

    But every election is unique, past behaviour is no guarantee for future performance, as the small print says on most investments.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    UKIP's simple average so far this week = 13.3%

    Part-ELBOW says 13.2%

    *Waves again at FoxInSox"

    Its Laphroaig for preference, please, Doc.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135
    Ishmael_X said:

    Speedy said:

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?
    LordA is bouncy.
    LordA is probably ICM so I'd combine the two into one 3%.
    Slightly different methodology. Ashcroft only assigns 30% of 2010 LibDem refused/don't know back to the LibDems, as opposed to 50% for Tory and Lab.

    ICM use 50% for all three parties.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Driving through Harrogate & Knaresborough today , I have never seen so many Yellow diamond signs.
    There must be a residue of hard core Lib Dems in that seat.
    In comparison hardly any signs seen, of any colour in York Outer & City of York.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?
    LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.

    Are you suggesting it could quite possibly be a terrrrrrrrrrrrrrible night for the Tories :O ?!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Pulpstar said:

    Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:

    Coalition start point: 360

    Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - These are the seats that make Con, DUP, LD short of 323 according to Election Forecast:

    Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:

    LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.

    Bradford East
    Brent Central
    Manchester, Withington
    Norwich South
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Cardiff Central
    Hornsey and Wood Green
    Leeds North West
    Bristol West

    (10 losses to Lab)

    No Bermondsey? I make Labour significant favourites for that one.
  • John_NJohn_N Posts: 389
    Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.

    Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited April 2015
    Danny565 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:

    Coalition start point: 360

    Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - These are the seats that make Con, DUP, LD short of 323 according to Election Forecast:

    Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:

    LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.

    Bradford East
    Brent Central
    Manchester, Withington
    Norwich South
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Cardiff Central
    Hornsey and Wood Green
    Leeds North West
    Bristol West

    (10 losses to Lab)

    No Bermondsey? I make Labour significant favourites for that one.
    17% probability according to Elec forecast.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?
    LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.

    There are clearly enough Lab-inclined people out there to make it a draw or slight Labour lead if they all showed up, but I suspect ICM's turnout filter will prove to be accurate unless Labour rustle up some "red meat" that can get people on council estates or working on pitiful salaries out to vote.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Their model is wrong for Galloway and UKIP mind.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.

    If there is no Grexit on election day I doubt any surge for any party is going to happen on the day.
    Nor do I, but any forecast of Tories most seats seems to rely on it, despite how static things are.
    Danny565 said:

    kle4 said:

    Tories still with almost no chance based on the polls (unless, as most seem to, one assumes the Tories will have a surge on the day itself, but that is no certainty). Not a hint of movement other than MOE.

    Are you just determined to be a reverse of the resident Labour pessimists? :p
    I'm kind of stuck with it after years of saying Labour would win; it'd look silly if I changed opinion now.

    On that subject, I have to work the day of the GE, then do the count, then back in to work the next morning, after which I imagine I will pass out - so if I am totally, laughably wrong, an absence in the immediate aftermath will not be down purely to embarrassment.
    I've done that a few times and it's very tiresome, I suggest you sleep a little between work and the count if there is time and pack some lunch and coffee, but not too much or else you get all exhausted when the effect of caffeine runs out.
    And another thing, lots of small breaks and small talk helps time pass, until the count is finished and the result declared.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,135

    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?
    LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.

    That's interesting, don't normally look at table 1 in ICM!
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Do not think Harrogate & Knaresborough is worth a punt at 10/1 for the LibDems.
    When the Conservatives are 1/33 though.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    John_N said:

    Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.

    Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.

    Given the Scotopocalypse, Labour will need to make about 100 net gains from the Tories to win an overall majority. If the very worst predictions of a Liberal Democrat meltdown come to pass then the Tories will have an overall majority if they don't make net losses to Labour & UKIP.

    One of those is a bit more likely than the other, but both are only slightly more likely than people listening to reasoned arguments about global warming on an internet comment thread.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Just completed an You Gov online poll-I only respond when they ask me-the usual questions,though there was one on going for a pint with the various party leaders,trustworthiness and attractiveness.I wonder after Ed Miliband has shown he has shagability with the Chester Hens and with the Mail,Telegraph,articles on his many good-looking girlfriends,he scores more highly in the attractiveness %.I have long held the view that his intellectual self-confidence was his most attractive feature,others may look at him more carnally.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    John_N said:

    Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.

    Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.


    "I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament." !!!!!!
    What are the chances of a Tory or a Labour majority then?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    John_N said:

    Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.

    Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.

    For the reasons explained on my post on my site earlier, the current odds of 1/8 on a hung Parliament represent value in my opinion. A pound to a shilling would probably be about right.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Danny565 said:


    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?
    LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.

    There are clearly enough Lab-inclined people out there to make it a draw or slight Labour lead if they all showed up, but I suspect ICM's turnout filter will prove to be accurate unless Labour rustle up some "red meat" that can get people on council estates or working on pitiful salaries out to vote.
    It is all about the marginals where LAB will probably do better than CON in maximising its vote. Outside the battlegrounds LAB will perform poorly.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Danny565 said:


    Sean_F said:

    Current summary:-

    Opinium 4% Con Lead
    Ashcroft 4% Con Lead
    ICM 2% Con Lead
    Survation 1% Con Lead
    Com Res 1% Con Lead
    Yougov 1% Lab Lead
    Panelbase 1% Lab Lead
    MORI 2% Lab Lead
    TNS 2% Lab Lead
    Populus 2% Lab Lead

    Opinium and Ashcroft are outliers?
    LAB was ahead with ICM before turnout weighting and the DK reallocation. Quite simply there were more LAB voters in the survey than CON ones. With Ashcroft there wasn't much in it before these two measures applied.

    There are clearly enough Lab-inclined people out there to make it a draw or slight Labour lead if they all showed up, but I suspect ICM's turnout filter will prove to be accurate unless Labour rustle up some "red meat" that can get people on council estates or working on pitiful salaries out to vote.
    It is all about the marginals where LAB will probably do better than CON in maximising its vote. Outside the battlegrounds LAB will perform poorly.

    Twas ever thus
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015

    Just completed an You Gov online poll-I only respond when they ask me-the usual questions,though there was one on going for a pint with the various party leaders,trustworthiness and attractiveness.I wonder after Ed Miliband has shown he has shagability with the Chester Hens and with the Mail,Telegraph,articles on his many good-looking girlfriends,he scores more highly in the attractiveness %.I have long held the view that his intellectual self-confidence was his most attractive feature,others may look at him more carnally.

    I'm sure the Hens said that Milliband was terrified of them, and wouldn't get off the bus.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    I don't know that I buy that the Conservatives have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party - isn't the Scottish Tory vote the only unionist vote that is holding up pretty well? (due to starting from a lower base). While they probably should vote tactically for Labour, it's not really campaigning for the SNP if they don't do that.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    John_N said:

    Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.

    Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.

    Given the Scotopocalypse, Labour will need to make about 100 net gains from the Tories to win an overall majority. If the very worst predictions of a Liberal Democrat meltdown come to pass then the Tories will have an overall majority if they don't make net losses to Labour & UKIP.

    One of those is a bit more likely than the other, but both are only slightly more likely than people listening to reasoned arguments about global warming on an internet comment thread.
    Remember CON needs to be 11.4% ahead in England before it stops losing seats to LAB. They are miles from the target.

  • John_N said:

    Betfair are currently implying a hung parliament has a probability of 89%.

    Two questions. 1) Does anyone here think that that figure is stickier downwards than upwards? 2) How high might it go before Question Time on 30 April? I find it hard to believe that anyone in their right mind is going to bet a pound to a shilling on a hung parliament.

    A number of us thought the probability was more like 95% some months ago, and posted our thoughts on here.

    Nothing in the interim has caused me to think that was a poor assessment and I would now put the probability at 98%. You'd need a pretty big betting bank to make meaningful amounts at the current short odds, but if you have the cash I wouldn't discourage you. They are still generous.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    EICIPM (Just with these)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    UKIP's simple average so far this week = 13.3%

    Part-ELBOW says 13.2%

    *Waves again at FoxInSox"

    Its Laphroaig for preference, please, Doc.
    It does look on the cards. But we shall see...

    It will be handy for toasting Alex Salmond as he walks smiling into Downing St to lay down the law to Ed.
  • Moses_ said:

    Been out... not a normal lead from my mortgage introducer news feed. Sounds worth a watch...

    Labour in mansion tax meltdown

    http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/mortgages/252330/5/Industry_in_depth/Labour_in_mansion_tax_meltdown.htm

    But...but........ What about the 1000 nurses in the English NHS on day 1 or the 10000 was it in Scotland or .....oh you loose track quite easily given the amount of time this has been spent

    Not to worry they can always use the bankers bonus tax....

    Oh? I think I detect a slight fiscal flaw here.
    1000 nurses? Wowsers. Let's remind ourselves that equates to maybe an extra 2 per hospital, or possibly 1 for every 8 GP practices. It's not going to make any noticeable difference.
    Over the past ten years, the number of nurses in the nhs has grown by approximately 1000 every 4 months. It seems reasonable to assume that might continue organically.

    September 2015. We have 1000 extra nurses. Only 4 months in and we are delivering on our manifesto promises. Great politics.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Todays BJESUS - NO CHANGE unlike ARSE swing to the left

    21.4.15 LAB 292 (292) CON 271(271) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 54(54) (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 15 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    DavidL said:

    On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.

    Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.
    A UKIP candidate has been obliged to report to the police for breaking the law on “treating” for providing sausage rolls at an event. Yet Jack Straw at elections in 2005 and 2010 held rallies for the Muslim community in Blackburn at which the Labour Party provided hundreds of voters with full sit down meals, free of charge, and Police refused to take any action – indeed they were protecting the event. This is yet another example of the political elite being above the law.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
  • I wonder how Tebbit would rate Miligeek in the Real Man stakes..

    Miligeek?!

    Stop the search for a new Peter Ustinov! We have a winner!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500

    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
    Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
    Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.
    He should be updating his CV.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    FalseFlag said:

    DavidL said:

    On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.

    Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.
    A UKIP candidate has been obliged to report to the police for breaking the law on “treating” for providing sausage rolls at an event. Yet Jack Straw at elections in 2005 and 2010 held rallies for the Muslim community in Blackburn at which the Labour Party provided hundreds of voters with full sit down meals, free of charge, and Police refused to take any action – indeed they were protecting the event. This is yet another example of the political elite being above the law.
    Was he reported or not?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    UKIP's simple average so far this week = 13.3%

    Part-ELBOW says 13.2%

    *Waves again at FoxInSox"

    Its Laphroaig for preference, please, Doc.
    It does look on the cards. But we shall see...

    It will be handy for toasting Alex Salmond as he walks smiling into Downing St to lay down the law to Ed.
    We shall see indeed, Doc, and I am not counting on a win. However, when that poll came out suggesting UKIP on 7% you did comment, so I thought it only polite to return the compliment.

    As for Salmond walking into Downing Street to give Miliband his orders, well, if it comes to that we have much bigger problems to worry about. I should add that nothing Miliband is likely to do will affect me too much, it is my son's generation that I fear for.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
    Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.
    A nasty little Blairite hyped by the media.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
    Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.
    He should be updating his CV.
    There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    edited April 2015
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
    Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.
    He should be updating his CV.
    There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.
    Is the rule that' you can only be elected leader if you are a member', or 'you can only be a leader if you are a member'?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
    Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.
    He should be updating his CV.
    His CV is simple , 9 years at Uni and graduated without a bus ticket. Then greasy pole climber in Labour party. End.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    RobD said:

    FalseFlag said:

    DavidL said:

    On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.

    Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.
    A UKIP candidate has been obliged to report to the police for breaking the law on “treating” for providing sausage rolls at an event. Yet Jack Straw at elections in 2005 and 2010 held rallies for the Muslim community in Blackburn at which the Labour Party provided hundreds of voters with full sit down meals, free of charge, and Police refused to take any action – indeed they were protecting the event. This is yet another example of the political elite being above the law.
    Was he reported or not?
    Formal complaint made obliging investigation. Police did a very good job apparently but The Crown Prosecution Service returned the file to Lancashire Police, saying that the offence was “Trivial” and there would be no prosecution.
  • marktheowlmarktheowl Posts: 169

    Just completed an You Gov online poll-I only respond when they ask me-the usual questions,though there was one on going for a pint with the various party leaders,trustworthiness and attractiveness.I wonder after Ed Miliband has shown he has shagability with the Chester Hens and with the Mail,Telegraph,articles on his many good-looking girlfriends,he scores more highly in the attractiveness %.I have long held the view that his intellectual self-confidence was his most attractive feature,others may look at him more carnally.

    I'm sure the Hens said that Milliband was terrified of them, and wouldn't get off the bus.
    They actually described him as "lovely", but don't let that ruin your preconceptions.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    FalseFlag said:

    RobD said:

    FalseFlag said:

    DavidL said:

    On reflection should the Cops not be taking the disappearance of such large numbers of people from the electoral register a bit more seriously? There has to be a real prospect that the previous arrangements did indeed facilitate quite wide spread and substantial electoral fraud.

    Being largely disinterested in mass child abuse, they're hardly likely to bother investigating a bit of vote rigging.
    A UKIP candidate has been obliged to report to the police for breaking the law on “treating” for providing sausage rolls at an event. Yet Jack Straw at elections in 2005 and 2010 held rallies for the Muslim community in Blackburn at which the Labour Party provided hundreds of voters with full sit down meals, free of charge, and Police refused to take any action – indeed they were protecting the event. This is yet another example of the political elite being above the law.
    Was he reported or not?
    Formal complaint made obliging investigation. Police did a very good job apparently but The Crown Prosecution Service returned the file to Lancashire Police, saying that the offence was “Trivial” and there would be no prosecution.
    I'm imagining the same will happen here?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
    Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.
    He should be updating his CV.
    There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.
    Is the rule that' you can only be elected leader if you are a member', or 'you can only be a leader if you are a member'?
    Rob , I am not sure but common thought was you had to be either an MSP or an MP to be party leader. We may well find out soon.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
    Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.
    He should be updating his CV.
    There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.
    Is the rule that' you can only be elected leader if you are a member', or 'you can only be a leader if you are a member'?
    The former - MSP or MP - seems to be clear. The unclear bit is the second version you give ...

    The newspaper which outed this was the Sunday Herald last Sunday, I believe.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015

    Just completed an You Gov online poll-I only respond when they ask me-the usual questions,though there was one on going for a pint with the various party leaders,trustworthiness and attractiveness.I wonder after Ed Miliband has shown he has shagability with the Chester Hens and with the Mail,Telegraph,articles on his many good-looking girlfriends,he scores more highly in the attractiveness %.I have long held the view that his intellectual self-confidence was his most attractive feature,others may look at him more carnally.

    I'm sure the Hens said that Milliband was terrified of them, and wouldn't get off the bus.
    They actually described him as "lovely", but don't let that ruin your preconceptions.

    Oh.

    'According to one attendee on LBC this morning “he looked terrified, absolutely terrified. And he wouldn’t actually come off the bus. He was just kind of lingering on the steps, waving sort of tentatively.”'

    (There's a recording for the hard of reading)

    http://order-order.com/page/2/#_@/dTAmu_lpBr7Paw
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
    Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.
    He should be updating his CV.
    There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.
    Is the rule that' you can only be elected leader if you are a member', or 'you can only be a leader if you are a member'?
    The former - MSP or MP - seems to be clear. The unclear bit is the second version you give ...

    The newspaper which outed this was the Sunday Herald last Sunday, I believe.
    Does anyone have the actual wording used in the constitution?

    The latter is quite clear. He'd have to be a member of one of the qualifying places in order to be leader. If he isn't, he is no longer able to be leader. I wonder what the punishment for breaking the rule is?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,043
    edited April 2015
    On topic. How can a good pollster become so crap in a few short days. How depressing! :D
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    UKIP's simple average so far this week = 13.3%

    Part-ELBOW says 13.2%

    *Waves again at FoxInSox"

    Its Laphroaig for preference, please, Doc.
    It does look on the cards. But we shall see...

    It will be handy for toasting Alex Salmond as he walks smiling into Downing St to lay down the law to Ed.
    We shall see indeed, Doc, and I am not counting on a win. However, when that poll came out suggesting UKIP on 7% you did comment, so I thought it only polite to return the compliment.

    As for Salmond walking into Downing Street to give Miliband his orders, well, if it comes to that we have much bigger problems to worry about. I should add that nothing Miliband is likely to do will affect me too much, it is my son's generation that I fear for.
    I might look for a BOGOF offer; we both may need to drown our sorrows!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    Pulpstar said:

    Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:

    Coalition start point: 360

    Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - These are the seats that make Con, DUP, LD short of 323 according to Election Forecast:

    Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:

    LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.

    Bradford East
    Brent Central
    Manchester, Withington
    Norwich South
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Cardiff Central
    Hornsey and Wood Green
    Leeds North West
    Bristol West

    (10 losses to Lab)

    Orkney is the 1 LD Hold against SNP (10 losses)

    Con losses to Lab.

    6 London (Hendon, Brentford Isleworth, Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central)
    8 NW (Lancaster, Fleetwood, Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Morecambe, Warrington South)
    3 East (Waveney, Bedford, Ipswich)
    2 Yorkshire Humber (Dewsbury, Keighley)
    3 West Mids (Wolves SW, North Warks, Nuneaton)
    2 SW (Plymouth, Stroud)
    2 SE (Hastings, Hove)
    6 East Mids (Erewash, Amber Valley, Sherwood, Lincoln, Amber Valley, Broxtowe)

    Coalition End point: 308.

    Notable CON Holds according to their model:

    Pudsey, Brighton Kemptown, Thurrock (They have a caveat on UKIP modelling mind), Stockton South, DCT, Rossendale and Darwen.

    My analysis (using Ashcroft polls where available)

    Con - start 307. Gain 10 LDs, lose 2 UKIP, 1 SNP and 47 Lab = 267
    LDs - start 57 Lose 10 Con, 9 Lab, and 10 SNP = 28
    Right wing Coalition 295

    Lab - start 258. Gain 9 LDs and 47 Con. Lose 40 SNP = 274
    SNP - start 6. Gain 1 Con, 40 Lab, 10 LD = 57
    Left wing coalition 331 plus PC and Green

    10 of the potential Lab gains from Con are on majorities of less than 1000. If 500 people in those 10 constituencies can be persuaded to switch from Lab to Con, then the figures are 305 versus 321. The 4.3 million UKIP voters are irrelevant to this. Funny old system!
  • marktheowlmarktheowl Posts: 169

    Just completed an You Gov online poll-I only respond when they ask me-the usual questions,though there was one on going for a pint with the various party leaders,trustworthiness and attractiveness.I wonder after Ed Miliband has shown he has shagability with the Chester Hens and with the Mail,Telegraph,articles on his many good-looking girlfriends,he scores more highly in the attractiveness %.I have long held the view that his intellectual self-confidence was his most attractive feature,others may look at him more carnally.

    I'm sure the Hens said that Milliband was terrified of them, and wouldn't get off the bus.
    They actually described him as "lovely", but don't let that ruin your preconceptions.

    Oh.

    'According to one attendee on LBC this morning “he looked terrified, absolutely terrified. And he wouldn’t actually come off the bus. He was just kind of lingering on the steps, waving sort of tentatively.”'

    (There's a recording for the hard of reading)

    http://order-order.com/page/2/#_@/dTAmu_lpBr7Paw
    Well another one said he was lovely, http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/apr/19/ed-miliband-makes-bride-to-bes-day-as-hen-party-mobs-labour-bus

    It could easily be both of course, that initially the commotion caused tentativity, but they were happy with the selfie and high fives.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    I'm told the LibDem candidate arrived late at the Stafford hustings. He lives in Surrey. When the topic turned to traffic congestion in Stafford he said he understood the problems because he used to live in Truro, which, apparently, is similar to Stafford.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Latest poll.

    The labour /SNP strategy going well I see ;-)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FalseFlag said:

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
    Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.
    A nasty little Blairite hyped by the media.
    Murphy is arguably more of a hindrance to Labour in Scotland than Ed is. On yesterday's YouGov poll ratings, Murphy has a slightly better net rating than Ed, BUT that's only because Murphy does respectably with Tory voters. Among 2010 Labour voters (i.e. the people Labour desperately need to win back), Ed outpolls Murphy.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,378
    edited April 2015
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    Now Jim Murphy is wading in to give the SNP yet more airtime. He said:

    "John Major and David Cameron have given up on the Scottish Conservative Party and are giving their all to the SNP.

    The Tory Party no longer has its own independent campaign in Scotland but has become an active campaigner for the SNP. The Tories are making it clear by their words and their deeds today that David Cameron can only be saved by Scotland voting SNP.”

    The funny thing about all of this focus on the SNP is that before the campaign started the SNPs biggest concern was probably that they were going to be side-lined by the MSM and Westminster parties !!

    Murphy and SLAB are in self destruct mode. I thought you could be sectioned to prevent harm to yourself and others but I guess I must have been wrong.
    Murphy sounds more and more deranged every day, they have no clue what to do.
    He should be updating his CV.
    There were reports, that he denied, that he had consulted lawyers re whether he could stay SLAB leader if he gets turfed out of Westminster.
    Is the rule that' you can only be elected leader if you are a member', or 'you can only be a leader if you are a member'?
    The former - MSP or MP - seems to be clear. The unclear bit is the second version you give ...

    The newspaper which outed this was the Sunday Herald last Sunday, I believe.
    Does anyone have the actual wording used in the constitution?

    The latter is quite clear. He'd have to be a member of one of the qualifying places in order to be leader. If he isn't, he is no longer able to be leader. I wonder what the punishment for breaking the rule is?
    Part of the problem is that nobody seems to have a copy (as far as I know) - presumably not least because there is no such organization as Scottish Labour that could have a constitution. Just the local members of Labour.

    The Labour rule book is not very helpful ...

    "7. Election of the Leader of the Scottish Labour Party
    A. The Leader of the Scottish Labour Party shall be
    elected according to the procedural rules set out
    by the Scottish Executive Committee."

    page 17 on http://labourlist.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Rule-Book-2013.pdf

    In any case, if it is merely a procedural/administrative issue, Mr M can easily change the rules, should he so wish [edit: subject to committee agreement]. That seems to be what happened when suddenly SLAB no longer published the actual numbers voting in the election which saw Mr Murphy appointed.

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    I heard somewhere that Katie Hopkins will leave the UK if Labour get into power.

    Who's not going to vote Labour now? Anyone?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,711
    Barnesian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can the Gov't survive - a seat by seat analysis:

    Coalition start point: 360

    Seeing as the rest of parliament is basically to the left of Labour with the exception of the DUP - These are the seats that make Con, DUP, LD short of 323 according to Election Forecast:

    Con/LD; SNP/Lab not important for this analysis:

    LD losses to Labour according to Election forecast.

    Bradford East
    Brent Central
    Manchester, Withington
    Norwich South
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Cardiff Central
    Hornsey and Wood Green
    Leeds North West
    Bristol West

    (10 losses to Lab)

    Orkney is the 1 LD Hold against SNP (10 losses)

    Con losses to Lab.

    6 London (Hendon, Brentford Isleworth, Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central)
    8 NW (Lancaster, Fleetwood, Chester, Bury North, Wirral West, Morecambe, Warrington South)
    3 East (Waveney, Bedford, Ipswich)
    2 Yorkshire Humber (Dewsbury, Keighley)
    3 West Mids (Wolves SW, North Warks, Nuneaton)
    2 SW (Plymouth, Stroud)
    2 SE (Hastings, Hove)
    6 East Mids (Erewash, Amber Valley, Sherwood, Lincoln, Amber Valley, Broxtowe)

    Coalition End point: 308.

    Notable CON Holds according to their model:

    Pudsey, Brighton Kemptown, Thurrock (They have a caveat on UKIP modelling mind), Stockton South, DCT, Rossendale and Darwen.

    My analysis (using Ashcroft polls where available)

    Con - start 307. Gain 10 LDs, lose 2 UKIP, 1 SNP and 47 Lab = 267
    LDs - start 57 Lose 10 Con, 9 Lab, and 10 SNP = 28
    Right wing Coalition 295

    Lab - start 258. Gain 9 LDs and 47 Con. Lose 40 SNP = 274
    SNP - start 6. Gain 1 Con, 40 Lab, 10 LD = 57
    Left wing coalition 331 plus PC and Green

    10 of the potential Lab gains from Con are on majorities of less than 1000. If 500 people in those 10 constituencies can be persuaded to switch from Lab to Con, then the figures are 305 versus 321. The 4.3 million UKIP voters are irrelevant to this. Funny old system!
    I don't think Labour will pick up more than 40 seats from the Conservatives unless they perform very much better than expected on the night.
This discussion has been closed.