This will sink Labour in the GE, in my opinion. The issue will dominate the remainder of the campaign. Expect a grave and statesmanlike intervention from John Major.
As a can the part which does not want to face the SNP dictating terms?
Strident lefty types are small beer compared to the floating voters in the middle England marginals.
Perhaps so. Nevertheless, I have my doubts that they will be so concerned at the prospect they will vote Tory in response, given the higher than average swing in the marginals.
Perhaps the only call regarding this disconnect between much of the polling and the seat markets is the view that Labour are going to ship so many seats in Scotland that they just cant make up the deficit.
Thats a risky assumption on both counts.
Agreed. It's a lot of seats they could stand to lose in Scotland, but a few percent here and there and it goes from total disaster to merely a disaster, and it doesn't take all that much to capture dozens upon dozens of seats in England if it clustered fortunately for them.
It's not necessarily about a late swing as such. Rather it has more to do with voting factors: 1. The elderly and more Tory-inclined's propensity to vote. 2. The young, under 30, and more Labour-inclined's propensity not to bother registering to vote. 3. The Tories' better organisation in getting their vote out generally, assisted by a hugely bigger war chest. 4. The "Shy Tory" factor (as ever).
None of the above factors on their own is huge, but taken together thet probably account for far more than the 18 seat difference identified in this thread berween what the polls are suggesting and the prices on offer from the spread-betting firms and ultimately explains how and why John Major won quite comfotably in 1992.
It looks increasinly likely that the Consrvatives may get most votes and seats now if only because of Labour's collapse in Scotland. I find that disappointing given what I think is this government's poor record, but then Labour is still blamed, with some justification, for the economic situation we're in. However here are reasons for liberals and progressives to take heart. Only a third or so of voters seem satisfied with this government, in spite of them being able to put the blame onto Labour quite successfully. The Blairites in the Labour party are a busted flush and I imagine have little hope of being rejeuvenated. I think you can probably say the same aboutt he Cleggites in the Lib Dems too. They must surely have leant heir lesson after 5 years in bed with the Tories. The opportunities for a progressive alliance would seem to be there. Ukip are less of a treat than they seemed 6 months ago and the stupid leadership of late by Farage has probably doen them permanent damage. But the most encouraging thing for me is the Tory campaign. I'm strangely uplifted to see them focussing relentlessly on the SNP and resorting to desperate bribes on right to buy and now Lloyds shares. It's almost as if they've given up trying to sell a Conservative message to the voters? Perhaps they just don't think the public will swallow such a message any more. I hope they are right.
Perhaps the only call regarding this disconnect between much of the polling and the seat markets is the view that Labour are going to ship so many seats in Scotland that they just cant make up the deficit.
Thats a risky assumption on both counts.
Assuming Labour lose all their Scottish seats, they would need 109 gains for a majority. Blair got 145 in 1997 and Dave got 100 gains in 2010.
We should be getting two phone polls tomorrow, ICM and Lord A, exciting times.
But tomorrow, there's a great guest article by a pollster, that none of you will want to miss.
The Good Lord set to join PB?
No, Keiran Pedley of GFK NOP.
They were the pollsters who were the most accurate pollster at the 2005 GE, and worked on the 2010 and the 2015 exit polls.
Oh!
It would be nice to have NOP doing regular polls again. And Gallop. And Harris. And Angus Reid.
#bringiton
Angus Reid they were very funny.
Huge Tory Majority nailed on.
Rod Crosby is the AR of 2015 IMO or it could be me of course.
Has Rod actually made a prediction? I know a while ago he inferred that his beloved Tories would be 100+ seats ahead...
They're not his beloved Tories. You may be too new here to know this, but Rod took a lot of stick from Tories on here in the 2005-10 Parliament for continually projecting that Cameron wouldn't get a majority.
I think you can probably say the same aboutt he Cleggites in the Lib Dems too. They must surely have leant heir lesson after 5 years in bed with the Tories. The opportunities for a progressive alliance would seem to be there.
The Labour-leaning LD voters have already left. The LD MPs returned in 2015 will be voted in by LD voters who polling companies tell us prefer the notion of a coalition with the Conservatives.
We should be getting two phone polls tomorrow, ICM and Lord A, exciting times.
But tomorrow, there's a great guest article by a pollster, that none of you will want to miss.
The Good Lord set to join PB?
No, Keiran Pedley of GFK NOP.
They were the pollsters who were the most accurate pollster at the 2005 GE, and worked on the 2010 and the 2015 exit polls.
Oh!
It would be nice to have NOP doing regular polls again. And Gallop. And Harris. And Angus Reid.
#bringiton
Angus Reid they were very funny.
Huge Tory Majority nailed on.
Rod Crosby is the AR of 2015 IMO or it could be me of course.
Has Rod actually made a prediction? I know a while ago he inferred that his beloved Tories would be 100+ seats ahead...
They're not his beloved Tories. You may be too new here to know this, but Rod took a lot of stick from Tories on here in the 2005-10 Parliament for continually projecting that Cameron wouldn't get a majority.
From the latter half of 2009,his prediction would have been in line with the polls.
Well, tomorrow is the end of registration - when do we get national data on comparative levels? Our postal votes go out on Tuesday when PV registration closes.
Idle anecdotia: I found an SNP voter last week, pondering what to do as sadly they've not put someone up here. The "oh God you might join the evil Nats" line doesn't seem to be manifesting itself here much, though I'm getting the slightly uncomfortable opposite from time to time ("Why have you ruled out a coalition with Sturgeon, she seems quite sensible?"). The Tories have switched their billboards from Salmond to "Labour will cost you £3205.63" or something like that.
After doing the first three debates, Ms Soubry is skipping the next two, so we'll have opposition-only debates just like the BBC. One Tory garden stake has appeared (vs 80 Labour ones) and one window poster (vs hundreds of Labour ones). I don't get the strategy of having just one printed and erected in a random place - surely either they should make an effort and have lots (there are more than two Conservatives in Broxtowe), or make a virtue of having none ("we do not concern ourselves with such trivia, we are debating the issues", etc.)? Perhaps more will yet appear.
And yeah, Flightpath, this is not a neutral commentary - just idle chatter after a busy day.
The left leaning friends who've discussed this with me share my opinion, rather quite liking the idea of a labour government backed up informally by the SNP.
Hear their manifesto will call for significant investment in the north of England, on a par with the level seen in the south east, this will see a lot of labour supporters in the north quite liking the idea of them having some influence.
What investment in the South East?
London gets 24 times as much spent on infrastructure per resident than north-east England
And please don't pretend London isn't in the south east, for those of is in the north it very much is and sums up why so many are happy that parties like the SNP are willing to taking about investing the same in the north as the south east.
They'll win a lot of friends up here taking about these issues that the main parties ignore.
We should be getting two phone polls tomorrow, ICM and Lord A, exciting times.
But tomorrow, there's a great guest article by a pollster, that none of you will want to miss.
The Good Lord set to join PB?
No, Keiran Pedley of GFK NOP.
They were the pollsters who were the most accurate pollster at the 2005 GE, and worked on the 2010 and the 2015 exit polls.
Oh!
It would be nice to have NOP doing regular polls again. And Gallop. And Harris. And Angus Reid.
#bringiton
Angus Reid they were very funny.
Huge Tory Majority nailed on.
Rod Crosby is the AR of 2015 IMO or it could be me of course.
Has Rod actually made a prediction? I know a while ago he inferred that his beloved Tories would be 100+ seats ahead...
They're not his beloved Tories. You may be too new here to know this, but Rod took a lot of stick from Tories on here in the 2005-10 Parliament for continually projecting that Cameron wouldn't get a majority.
From the latter half of 2009,his prediction would have been in line with the polls.
This time it`s not.
Wrong.
Of the 95 polls conducted in second half of 2009, 82 of them had Tory leads of double digits, ie a comfortable Tory Majority
We should be getting two phone polls tomorrow, ICM and Lord A, exciting times.
But tomorrow, there's a great guest article by a pollster, that none of you will want to miss.
The Good Lord set to join PB?
No, Keiran Pedley of GFK NOP.
They were the pollsters who were the most accurate pollster at the 2005 GE, and worked on the 2010 and the 2015 exit polls.
Oh!
It would be nice to have NOP doing regular polls again. And Gallop. And Harris. And Angus Reid.
#bringiton
Angus Reid they were very funny.
Huge Tory Majority nailed on.
Rod Crosby is the AR of 2015 IMO or it could be me of course.
Has Rod actually made a prediction? I know a while ago he inferred that his beloved Tories would be 100+ seats ahead...
I reported the L&N model, amongst others, and I don't think it was ever quite that good for the Tories. L&N themselves also forecasted something like 70 seats ahead, as recently as February. Then they changed their model!
I'm sticking to Tories most votes, most seats as I've been saying for 3 years. Majority still possible, although admittedly less likely than it once appeared.
There are issues of confidence to our economy if a referendum is called, but nevertheless one is needed.
However its clear that the BBC at least does not believe in the competence of the electorate, we only need to look at the nature of its coverage to see that. For any doubters about that we only need to look back at the issue of AGW where the more independently cerebral of you will recall the BBC specially organising a 'high level seminar' in 2006 which, with the necessary plausible deniability, would allow it to tell lies (because the issue was too important) about global warming.
I notice Dawkins mentions a serious and complex economic issue but no other eg the serious and complex issues of sovereignty, self-determination etc. Sigh.
Off topic my local UKIP candidate has taken to standing at the very busy main crossroads near to where I live and seems to be just saying hello and waving. He's certainly putting the hours in but the benefit of it over traditional door-knocking seems a bit uncertain to me. Not that it'll make any difference anyway it's safe Labour but there you go.
I was trying to explain earlier to someone that in terms of seats Labour plus SNP> Tories plus LD's will mean that almost certainly Miliband will be the next PM. My logic felt right- even if this meant that Labour won 255 (SNP circa 55) seats to the Tories 285 (LD's circa 25). My rationale is that the LD's would jump ship at not being able to secure the Tories a working majority (either in coalition or supply and confidence). Does this sound right?
I notice Dawkins mentions a serious and complex economic issue but no other eg the serious and complex issues of sovereignty, self-determination etc. Sigh.
Off topic my local UKIP candidate has taken to standing at the very busy main crossroads near to where I live and seems to be just saying hello and waving. He's certainly putting the hours in but the benefit of it over traditional door-knocking seems a bit uncertain to me. Not that it'll make any difference anyway it's safe Labour but there you go.
You have not seen any UKIP candidates shouting at the pavement yet then?
It's not necessarily about a late swing as such. Rather it has more to do with voting factors: 1. The elderly and more Tory-inclined's propensity to vote. 2. The young, under 30, and more Labour-inclined's propensity not to bother registering to vote. 3. The Tories' better organisation in getting their vote out generally, assisted by a hugely bigger war chest. 4. The "Shy Tory" factor (as ever).
None of the above factors on their own is huge, but taken together thet probably account for far more than the 18 seat difference identified in this thread berween what the polls are suggesting and the prices on offer from the spread-betting firms and ultimately explains how and why John Major won quite comfotably in 1992.
The Conservative lost 40 MPs in 1992.
If they do the same this year they lose.
And their vote share was down just 0.5%. It's very likely the Tory share will be down by more than that this time but they won't lose as many as 40 seats. Such is FPTP. (Not that the Labour increase in 1992, at 3.7 points, was particularly large).
Well, tomorrow is the end of registration - when do we get national data on comparative levels? Our postal votes go out on Tuesday when PV registration closes.
Idle anecdotia: I found an SNP voter last week, pondering what to do as sadly they've not put someone up here. The "oh God you might join the evil Nats" line doesn't seem to be manifesting itself here much, though I'm getting the slightly uncomfortable opposite from time to time ("Why have you ruled out a coalition with Sturgeon, she seems quite sensible?"). The Tories have switched their billboards from Salmond to "Labour will cost you £3205.63" or something like that.
After doing the first three debates, Ms Soubry is skipping the next two, so we'll have opposition-only debates just like the BBC. One Tory garden stake has appeared (vs 80 Labour ones) and one window poster (vs hundreds of Labour ones). I don't get the strategy of having just one printed and erected in a random place - surely either they should make an effort and have lots (there are more than two Conservatives in Broxtowe), or make a virtue of having none ("we do not concern ourselves with such trivia, we are debating the issues", etc.)? Perhaps more will yet appear.
And yeah, Flightpath, this is not a neutral commentary - just idle chatter after a busy day.
The left leaning friends who've discussed this with me share my opinion, rather quite liking the idea of a labour government backed up informally by the SNP.
Hear their manifesto will call for significant investment in the north of England, on a par with the level seen in the south east, this will see a lot of labour supporters in the north quite liking the idea of them having some influence.
What investment in the South East?
London gets 24 times as much spent on infrastructure per resident than north-east England
And please don't pretend London isn't in the south east, for those of is in the north it very much is and sums up why so many are happy that parties like the SNP are willing to taking about investing the same in the north as the south east.
They'll win a lot of friends up here taking about these issues that the main parties ignore.
Cutting government spending on London is likely to upset more Labour supporters than Conservatives.
We should be getting two phone polls tomorrow, ICM and Lord A, exciting times.
But tomorrow, there's a great guest article by a pollster, that none of you will want to miss.
The Good Lord set to join PB?
No, Keiran Pedley of GFK NOP.
They were the pollsters who were the most accurate pollster at the 2005 GE, and worked on the 2010 and the 2015 exit polls.
Oh!
It would be nice to have NOP doing regular polls again. And Gallop. And Harris. And Angus Reid.
#bringiton
Angus Reid they were very funny.
Huge Tory Majority nailed on.
Rod Crosby is the AR of 2015 IMO or it could be me of course.
Has Rod actually made a prediction? I know a while ago he inferred that his beloved Tories would be 100+ seats ahead...
I reported the L&N model, amongst others, and I don't think it was ever quite that good for the Tories. L&N themselves also forecasted something like 70 seats ahead, as recently as February. Then they changed their model!
I'm sticking to Tories most votes, most seats as I've been saying for 3 years. Majority still possible, although admittedly less likely than it once appeared.
Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't you the biggest proponent of 2010 being NOM (which it was) when the polls were showing Tory Maj. Now the polls are all but uniformly NOM you've switched for 2015 to a possible Tory Maj.
I've just registered to vote. Or at least I think I have.
o_O You were unregistered ?!
Yup.
Well, I've had an email informing me that my application to register to vote has been received.
Now it's down to the poor overworked and underfunded electoral services department of my local council to send me an email confirming or denying my registration. Apparently.
I'm not sure they've got this process quite right....
I share a building with an ex Tory MP, and, at the last election, my friend, a LD councillor asked me to put a "LD winning here" stake out at the front shared garden (well we all make mistakes don't we). I asked for his permission and he looked at me as if I had asked to murder and eat his grand children. He never even gave me a response. And I never put out the stake. We are still on friendly terms mind.
Until a couple of months ago I was staying with Methodist friends who are respectively a Labour councillor and a LibDem candidate, They make compromises - one has a sign at the front, the other at the back, and so on. It proably helps that the parties are in coaltion locally - might be tricky if it was a UKIP-SWP couple...
Am I the only person bored with the election campaign ?
With postal votes now being returned and all the debates done things might fizzle out somewhat as more people become bored.
Which means that the GOTV operation will become more important.
I have had a visit from my Tory wannabe MP and loadsa Labour leaflets (and one UKIP).
People may be bored, but the parties seem keen enough to make the best impression they can.
My impression is that half the voters are pretty keen, the other half merely tolerant. But yes, even the keen ones aren't really gripped by the campaign - they're merely engaged like supporters of rival teams. Nobody tells me about the awesome PPB they've seen or the amazing leaflet someone sent them.
I notice Dawkins mentions a serious and complex economic issue but no other eg the serious and complex issues of sovereignty, self-determination etc. Sigh.
Off topic my local UKIP candidate has taken to standing at the very busy main crossroads near to where I live and seems to be just saying hello and waving. He's certainly putting the hours in but the benefit of it over traditional door-knocking seems a bit uncertain to me. Not that it'll make any difference anyway it's safe Labour but there you go.
You have not seen any UKIP candidates shouting at the pavement yet then?
It is increasingly difficult to tell the difference between active schizophrenia and bluetooth phones. People ranting in public can be either...
The national swing in 1992 was 2.04% from Con to Lab. The Tories lost 41 seats and Labour gained 42. The same change in seats this time would give Lab 300, Con 266. Labour managed to get a swing in the marginals double the average in '92.
We should be getting two phone polls tomorrow, ICM and Lord A, exciting times.
But tomorrow, there's a great guest article by a pollster, that none of you will want to miss.
The Good Lord set to join PB?
No, Keiran Pedley of GFK NOP.
They were the pollsters who were the most accurate pollster at the 2005 GE, and worked on the 2010 and the 2015 exit polls.
Oh!
It would be nice to have NOP doing regular polls again. And Gallop. And Harris. And Angus Reid.
#bringiton
Angus Reid they were very funny.
Huge Tory Majority nailed on.
Rod Crosby is the AR of 2015 IMO or it could be me of course.
Has Rod actually made a prediction? I know a while ago he inferred that his beloved Tories would be 100+ seats ahead...
I reported the L&N model, amongst others, and I don't think it was ever quite that good for the Tories. L&N themselves also forecasted something like 70 seats ahead, as recently as February. Then they changed their model!
I'm sticking to Tories most votes, most seats as I've been saying for 3 years. Majority still possible, although admittedly less likely than it once appeared.
Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't you the biggest proponent of 2010 being NOM (which it was) when the polls were showing Tory Maj. Now the polls are all but uniformly NOM you've switched for 2015 to a possible Tory Maj.
What's changed?
I think Rod is a natural intellectual contrararian whose too intelligent for his own good (a bit like Dawkins). He needs to whack himself across the head a few times to lose some of his brain cells.
I've just registered to vote. Or at least I think I have.
o_O You were unregistered ?!
Yup.
Well, I've had an email informing me that my application to register to vote has been received.
Now it's down to the poor overworked and underfunded electoral services department of my local council to send me an email confirming or denying my registration. Apparently.
I'm not sure they've got this process quite right....
I emailed my council registration officer to be sure I was on the list last week, got a positive response the same day.
For those distracted by football... here's a collection of finest Hodges today...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago Potential Labour supporters. If you don't register the Tories win and you get 5 years of me telling you how right I was....
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago Potential Ukip supporters. If you don't register you don't get to see me streak...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential Tory supporters. If you don't register to vote I get sacked and Owen Jones gets my job...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential SNP supporters. If you don't register to vote think how daft you'll feel, you'll be the only one...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential Lib Dem supporters. If you don't register to vote then...oh, who am I kidding. What's the point...
The left leaning friends who've discussed this with me share my opinion, rather quite liking the idea of a labour government backed up informally by the SNP.
Hear their manifesto will call for significant investment in the north of England, on a par with the level seen in the south east, this will see a lot of labour supporters in the north quite liking the idea of them having some influence.
What investment in the South East?
London gets 24 times as much spent on infrastructure per resident than north-east England
And please don't pretend London isn't in the south east, for those of is in the north it very much is and sums up why so many are happy that parties like the SNP are willing to taking about investing the same in the north as the south east.
They'll win a lot of friends up here taking about these issues that the main parties ignore.
Cutting government spending on London is likely to upset more Labour supporters than Conservatives.
Maybe, but who mentioned cutting spending in London? This forum is incredibly London and southern centric isn't it?
SNP will make a lot of friends in the north with this approach, this will lead to many northern Labour MPs not being afraid of working with the SNP.
From what was on Sky earlier they'll call for HS3 and HS2 to be accelerated towards Scotland.
Well go down well up here and leave many left leaning voters quite happy with that kind of influence.
I notice Dawkins mentions a serious and complex economic issue but no other eg the serious and complex issues of sovereignty, self-determination etc. Sigh.
Off topic my local UKIP candidate has taken to standing at the very busy main crossroads near to where I live and seems to be just saying hello and waving. He's certainly putting the hours in but the benefit of it over traditional door-knocking seems a bit uncertain to me. Not that it'll make any difference anyway it's safe Labour but there you go.
You have not seen any UKIP candidates shouting at the pavement yet then?
It is increasingly difficult to tell the difference between active schizophrenia and bluetooth phones. People ranting in public can be either...
I'm hoping Mr Clegg will give us a proper demonstration of ranting in public at the Hallam count.
It's not necessarily about a late swing as such. Rather it has more to do with voting factors: 1. The elderly and more Tory-inclined's propensity to vote. 2. The young, under 30, and more Labour-inclined's propensity not to bother registering to vote. 3. The Tories' better organisation in getting their vote out generally, assisted by a hugely bigger war chest. 4. The "Shy Tory" factor (as ever).
None of the above factors on their own is huge, but taken together thet probably account for far more than the 18 seat difference identified in this thread berween what the polls are suggesting and the prices on offer from the spread-betting firms and ultimately explains how and why John Major won quite comfotably in 1992.
The Conservative lost 40 MPs in 1992.
If they do the same this year they lose.
And their vote share was down just 0.5%. It's very likely the Tory share will be down by more than that this time but they won't lose as many as 40 seats. Such is FPTP. (Not that the Labour increase in 1992, at 3.7 points, was particularly large).
In 1992 the Con-Lab swing was only 2% but the Conservatives suffered from the out of date constituency boundaries and through piling up enormous majorities in all those safe seats from Huntingdon to Henley.
Nationally Labour did much better in the marginals but even there the Conservatives sometimes did better than expected - usually in seats beginning with the letter B, Battersea, Batley, Basildon, Bury N, Bolton NW.
For those distracted by football... here's a collection of finest Hodges today...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago Potential Labour supporters. If you don't register the Tories win and you get 5 years of me telling you how right I was....
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago Potential Ukip supporters. If you don't register you don't get to see me streak...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential Tory supporters. If you don't register to vote I get sacked and Owen Jones gets my job...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential SNP supporters. If you don't register to vote think how daft you'll feel, you'll be the only one...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential Lib Dem supporters. If you don't register to vote then...oh, who am I kidding. What's the point...
I was at Wembley today.
We need some viagra, twice this season, we've not been able to get past a semi.
For those distracted by football... here's a collection of finest Hodges today...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago Potential Labour supporters. If you don't register the Tories win and you get 5 years of me telling you how right I was....
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago Potential Ukip supporters. If you don't register you don't get to see me streak...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential Tory supporters. If you don't register to vote I get sacked and Owen Jones gets my job...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential SNP supporters. If you don't register to vote think how daft you'll feel, you'll be the only one...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential Lib Dem supporters. If you don't register to vote then...oh, who am I kidding. What's the point...
Ha, very good.
On the subject of canvassing, I'm off work for the latter part of this week, so I've more hopeful I might be in with a chance of being contacted. 2 LD leaflets, 1 UKIP and 1 Lab so far, but I'm minded to give my vote to whichever side can actually be bothered to properly knock on my door in what is a very safe Tory seat. Should I let any canvasser who does knock know that, or would they think I was mocking them do you think?
It's not necessarily about a late swing as such. Rather it has more to do with voting factors: 1. The elderly and more Tory-inclined's propensity to vote. 2. The young, under 30, and more Labour-inclined's propensity not to bother registering to vote. 3. The Tories' better organisation in getting their vote out generally, assisted by a hugely bigger war chest. 4. The "Shy Tory" factor (as ever).
None of the above factors on their own is huge, but taken together thet probably account for far more than the 18 seat difference identified in this thread berween what the polls are suggesting and the prices on offer from the spread-betting firms and ultimately explains how and why John Major won quite comfotably in 1992.
The Conservative lost 40 MPs in 1992.
If they do the same this year they lose.
And their vote share was down just 0.5%. It's very likely the Tory share will be down by more than that this time but they won't lose as many as 40 seats. Such is FPTP. (Not that the Labour increase in 1992, at 3.7 points, was particularly large).
In 1992 the Con-Lab swing was only 2% but the Conservatives suffered from the out of date constituency boundaries and through piling up enormous majorities in all those safe seats from Huntingdon to Henley.
Nationally Labour did much better in the marginals but even there the Conservatives sometimes did better than expected - usually in seats beginning with the letter B, Battersea, Batley, Basildon, Bury N, Bolton NW.
I can't remember anyone having drawn attention to it but the fact is Kinnock could have become PM in 1992 on a much lower share of the vote than the Tories (in coalition with the LDs most likely).
For those distracted by football... here's a collection of finest Hodges today...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago Potential Labour supporters. If you don't register the Tories win and you get 5 years of me telling you how right I was....
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago Potential Ukip supporters. If you don't register you don't get to see me streak...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential Tory supporters. If you don't register to vote I get sacked and Owen Jones gets my job...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential SNP supporters. If you don't register to vote think how daft you'll feel, you'll be the only one...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential Lib Dem supporters. If you don't register to vote then...oh, who am I kidding. What's the point...
I was at Wembley today.
We need some viagra, twice this season, we've not been able to get past a semi.
Thought you might be, thought those would cheer you a little!
We should be getting two phone polls tomorrow, ICM and Lord A, exciting times.
But tomorrow, there's a great guest article by a pollster, that none of you will want to miss.
The Good Lord set to join PB?
No, Keiran Pedley of GFK NOP.
They were the pollsters who were the most accurate pollster at the 2005 GE, and worked on the 2010 and the 2015 exit polls.
Oh!
It would be nice to have NOP doing regular polls again. And Gallop. And Harris. And Angus Reid.
#bringiton
Angus Reid they were very funny.
Huge Tory Majority nailed on.
Rod Crosby is the AR of 2015 IMO or it could be me of course.
Has Rod actually made a prediction? I know a while ago he inferred that his beloved Tories would be 100+ seats ahead...
I reported the L&N model, amongst others, and I don't think it was ever quite that good for the Tories. L&N themselves also forecasted something like 70 seats ahead, as recently as February. Then they changed their model!
I'm sticking to Tories most votes, most seats as I've been saying for 3 years. Majority still possible, although admittedly less likely than it once appeared.
Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't you the biggest proponent of 2010 being NOM (which it was) when the polls were showing Tory Maj. Now the polls are all but uniformly NOM you've switched for 2015 to a possible Tory Maj.
What's changed?
I don't think I've ever put the Tory majority this time higher than "possible", while I consistently thought during 2005-2010 that it was all but "impossible". In a nutshell, they started too far behind, and the pro-Labour bias was still strong.
My estimations now are based on the general atrociousness of Miliband and the Labour front bench, the historical tendency for governments to serve more than one term, the likely fall in LibDem seats to the Tories' advantage, Cameron's high PM approval, and the generally sensible and effective government we've experienced since 2010...
For those distracted by football... here's a collection of finest Hodges today...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago Potential Labour supporters. If you don't register the Tories win and you get 5 years of me telling you how right I was....
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago Potential Ukip supporters. If you don't register you don't get to see me streak...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential Tory supporters. If you don't register to vote I get sacked and Owen Jones gets my job...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential SNP supporters. If you don't register to vote think how daft you'll feel, you'll be the only one...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago Potential Lib Dem supporters. If you don't register to vote then...oh, who am I kidding. What's the point...
Ha, very good.
On the subject of canvassing, I'm off work for the latter part of this week, so I've more hopeful I might be in with a chance of being contacted. 2 LD leaflets, 1 UKIP and 1 Lab so far, but I'm minded to give my vote to whichever side can actually be bothered to properly knock on my door in what is a very safe Tory seat. Should I let any canvasser who does knock know that, or would they think I was mocking them do you think?
Talking of canvassing, Bercow came round our village the other week with his team - that's the man up against a kipper and little else - only literature from him as well. Interestingly it had complimentary quotes in there on his speakership from Ken Clarke and Blunkett.
Ken C being one of my fave blues as some may know.
As I've said before he puts the leg-work in to his constituency and doesn't take it for granted.
I was trying to explain earlier to someone that in terms of seats Labour plus SNP> Tories plus LD's will mean that almost certainly Miliband will be the next PM. My logic felt right- even if this meant that Labour won 255 (SNP circa 55) seats to the Tories 285 (LD's circa 25). My rationale is that the LD's would jump ship at not being able to secure the Tories a working majority (either in coalition or supply and confidence). Does this sound right?
285 + 25 certainly means Dave is out, since not even the DUP bridges the gap.
295+25 is less certain. Dave probably stays but it is difficult.
Well, tomorrow is the end of registration - when do we get national data on comparative levels? Our postal votes go out on Tuesday when PV registration closes.
Idle anecdotia: I found an SNP voter last week, pondering what to do as sadly they've not put someone up here. The "oh God you might join the evil Nats" line doesn't seem to be manifesting itself here much, though I'm getting the slightly uncomfortable opposite from time to time ("Why have you ruled out a coalition with Sturgeon, she seems quite sensible?"). The Tories have switched their billboards from Salmond to "Labour will cost you £3205.63" or something like that.
After doing the first three debates, Ms Soubry is skipping the next two, so we'll have opposition-only debates just like the BBC. One Tory garden stake has appeared (vs 80 Labour ones) and one window poster (vs hundreds of Labour ones). I don't get the strategy of having just one printed and erected in a random place - surely either they should make an effort and have lots (there are more than two Conservatives in Broxtowe), or make a virtue of having none ("we do not concern ourselves with such trivia, we are debating the issues", etc.)? Perhaps more will yet appear.
And yeah, Flightpath, this is not a neutral commentary - just idle chatter after a busy day.
Yeah Mr Palmer? Well following Ms Eagles comments today you really had better get in that line for polishing your sporran.
The fact that the SNP do not represent English constituencies and actively want to break up the UK is all the more reason to be more than suspicious of their motives in being willing to prop up a Labour minority. SNP MPs will not even represent their constituents when it comes to a host of devolved matters but would be dictating far left issues to Miliband. And that is not an idle anecdote.
I share a building with an ex Tory MP, and, at the last election, my friend, a LD councillor asked me to put a "LD winning here" stake out at the front shared garden (well we all make mistakes don't we). I asked for his permission and he looked at me as if I had asked to murder and eat his grand children. He never even gave me a response. And I never put out the stake. We are still on friendly terms mind.
Until a couple of months ago I was staying with Methodist friends who are respectively a Labour councillor and a LibDem candidate, They make compromises - one has a sign at the front, the other at the back, and so on. It proably helps that the parties are in coaltion locally - might be tricky if it was a UKIP-SWP couple...
@Nickpalmer I think most people are drawn to pbCOM because there is genuine political dialogue and it attracts people who want to challenge themselves and others (aside from those who are looking to make money). Cheerleading one's own side amongst the like minded is boring to be honest. I never read comments in any other site. Sometimes it gets a bit personal, a la SeanT, but I always think it has because he has consumed a tad too much coupled with a borderline personality.
The principal legal adviser to the director of public prosecutions is a barrister who worked in the same chambers as the son of Lord Janner of Braunstone until late last year, The Times has learnt.
The Crown Prosecution Service has confirmed that Alison Saunders, the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), consulted Neil Moore — who was based at the 23 Essex Street chambers where Daniel Janner, QC, works — before concluding that it was not in the public interest to prosecute the veteran Labour peer on child abuse charges.
Senior police officers privately raised concerns with the DPP about Mr Moore’s involvement in the decision-making process.
It's not necessarily about a late swing as such. Rather it has more to do with voting factors: 1. The elderly and more Tory-inclined's propensity to vote. 2. The young, under 30, and more Labour-inclined's propensity not to bother registering to vote. 3. The Tories' better organisation in getting their vote out generally, assisted by a hugely bigger war chest. 4. The "Shy Tory" factor (as ever).
None of the above factors on their own is huge, but taken together thet probably account for far more than the 18 seat difference identified in this thread berween what the polls are suggesting and the prices on offer from the spread-betting firms and ultimately explains how and why John Major won quite comfotably in 1992.
The Conservative lost 40 MPs in 1992.
If they do the same this year they lose.
And their vote share was down just 0.5%. It's very likely the Tory share will be down by more than that this time but they won't lose as many as 40 seats. Such is FPTP. (Not that the Labour increase in 1992, at 3.7 points, was particularly large).
In 1992 the Con-Lab swing was only 2% but the Conservatives suffered from the out of date constituency boundaries and through piling up enormous majorities in all those safe seats from Huntingdon to Henley.
Nationally Labour did much better in the marginals but even there the Conservatives sometimes did better than expected - usually in seats beginning with the letter B, Battersea, Batley, Basildon, Bury N, Bolton NW.
I can't remember anyone having drawn attention to it but the fact is Kinnock could have become PM in 1992 on a much lower share of the vote than the Tories (in coalition with the LDs most likely).
If Kinnock had won in 1992 we would have had no Blair. No Granita pact and no Brown. No Landslide in 97 either, indeed possibly Hague as PM.
A very different history based on small differences.
Well, tomorrow is the end of registration - when do we get national data on comparative levels? Our postal votes go out on Tuesday when PV registration closes.
Idle anecdotia: I found an SNP voter last week, pondering what to do as sadly they've not put someone up here. The "oh God you might join the evil Nats" line doesn't seem to be manifesting itself here much, though I'm getting the slightly uncomfortable opposite from time to time ("Why have you ruled out a coalition with Sturgeon, she seems quite sensible?"). The Tories have switched their billboards from Salmond to "Labour will cost you £3205.63" or something like that.
After doing the first three debates, Ms Soubry is skipping the next two, so we'll have opposition-only debates just like the BBC. One Tory garden stake has appeared (vs 80 Labour ones) and one window poster (vs hundreds of Labour ones). I don't get the strategy of having just one printed and erected in a random place - surely either they should make an effort and have lots (there are more than two Conservatives in Broxtowe), or make a virtue of having none ("we do not concern ourselves with such trivia, we are debating the issues", etc.)? Perhaps more will yet appear.
And yeah, Flightpath, this is not a neutral commentary - just idle chatter after a busy day.
The left leaning friends who've discussed this with me share my opinion, rather quite liking the idea of a labour government backed up informally by the SNP.
Hear their manifesto will call for significant investment in the north of England, on a par with the level seen in the south east, this will see a lot of labour supporters in the north quite liking the idea of them having some influence.
What investment in the South East?
There's this little place you might have heard of called London.
Although I've recently been vaulting up the PB Wooden Spoon League (especially after I predicted no more Lab leads for the rest of the campaign a couple of weeks ago), I'd like to point out that a year or so ago everyone laughed at me when I predicted the Lib Dems getting "only" 10% in the election.
We should be getting two phone polls tomorrow, ICM and Lord A, exciting times.
But tomorrow, there's a great guest article by a pollster, that none of you will want to miss.
The Good Lord set to join PB?
No, Keiran Pedley of GFK NOP.
They were the pollsters who were the most accurate pollster at the 2005 GE, and worked on the 2010 and the 2015 exit polls.
Oh!
It would be nice to have NOP doing regular polls again. And Gallop. And Harris. And Angus Reid.
#bringiton
Angus Reid they were very funny.
Huge Tory Majority nailed on.
Rod Crosby is the AR of 2015 IMO or it could be me of course.
Has Rod actually made a prediction? I know a while ago he inferred that his beloved Tories would be 100+ seats ahead...
I reported the L&N model, amongst others, and I don't think it was ever quite that good for the Tories. L&N themselves also forecasted something like 70 seats ahead, as recently as February. Then they changed their model!
I'm sticking to Tories most votes, most seats as I've been saying for 3 years. Majority still possible, although admittedly less likely than it once appeared.
Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't you the biggest proponent of 2010 being NOM (which it was) when the polls were showing Tory Maj. Now the polls are all but uniformly NOM you've switched for 2015 to a possible Tory Maj.
What's changed?
I don't think I've ever put the Tory majority this time higher than "possible", while I consistently thought during 2005-2010 that it was all but "impossible". In a nutshell, they started too far behind, and the pro-Labour bias was still strong.
My estimations now are based on the general atrociousness of Miliband and the Labour front bench, the historical tendency for governments to serve more than one term, the likely fall in LibDem seats to the Tories' advantage, Cameron's high PM approval, and the generally sensible and effective government we've experienced since 2010...
Have you been generally surprised by the effectiveness of the government? I remember from 05-10 you didn't rate Cameron at all, LOL!
The front pages of the Independant and the Telegraph are all about how the SNP will veto spending and block defence spending and close down the government. Absolutely toxic to the labour party.
there is much in the Orange Booker's agenda I could agree with both on social and economic policy.But their constitutional positions on voting reform and the EU are an absolute killer for me. So sorry. No not this time round :-)
We should be getting two phone polls tomorrow, ICM and Lord A, exciting times.
But tomorrow, there's a great guest article by a pollster, that none of you will want to miss.
The Good Lord set to join PB?
No, Keiran Pedley of GFK NOP.
They were the pollsters who were the most accurate pollster at the 2005 GE, and worked on the 2010 and the 2015 exit polls.
Oh!
It would be nice to have NOP doing regular polls again. And Gallop. And Harris. And Angus Reid.
#bringiton
Angus Reid they were very funny.
Huge Tory Majority nailed on.
Rod Crosby is the AR of 2015 IMO or it could be me of course.
Has Rod actually made a prediction? I know a while ago he inferred that his beloved Tories would be 100+ seats ahead...
I reported the L&N model, amongst others, and I don't think it was ever quite that good for the Tories. L&N themselves also forecasted something like 70 seats ahead, as recently as February. Then they changed their model!
I'm sticking to Tories most votes, most seats as I've been saying for 3 years. Majority still possible, although admittedly less likely than it once appeared.
Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't you the biggest proponent of 2010 being NOM (which it was) when the polls were showing Tory Maj. Now the polls are all but uniformly NOM you've switched for 2015 to a possible Tory Maj.
What's changed?
I don't think I've ever put the Tory majority this time higher than "possible", while I consistently thought during 2005-2010 that it was all but "impossible". In a nutshell, they started too far behind, and the pro-Labour bias was still strong.
My estimations now are based on the general atrociousness of Miliband and the Labour front bench, the historical tendency for governments to serve more than one term, the likely fall in LibDem seats to the Tories' advantage, Cameron's high PM approval, and the generally sensible and effective government we've experienced since 2010...
Have you been generally surprised by the effectiveness of the government? I remember from 05-10 you didn't rate Cameron at all, LOL!
That is true. I thought he was crap, until he became PM, and then I saw Miliband. Not much of an endorsement, but he as at least grown a little in the job, and Ed would turn us into an international joke, I fear.
There are issues of confidence to our economy if a referendum is called, but nevertheless one is needed.
However its clear that the BBC at least does not believe in the competence of the electorate, we only need to look at the nature of its coverage to see that. For any doubters about that we only need to look back at the issue of AGW where the more independently cerebral of you will recall the BBC specially organising a 'high level seminar' in 2006 which, with the necessary plausible deniability, would allow it to tell lies (because the issue was too important) about global warming.
The BBC reputedly spend thousands (a £140,000 figure has been banded around, but can't verify it) trying to prevent the list of people being disclosed - only to find that the information was freely available on the WAYBAK website. Conspiracy theorists about BBC pro-palestinian bias are still screaming for the 'Balen Report' into BBC reporting in the Middle East to be made public - 11 years after it was completed - that cost BBC licence payers about £200,000 (again allegedly).
We should be getting two phone polls tomorrow, ICM and Lord A, exciting times.
But tomorrow, there's a great guest article by a pollster, that none of you will want to miss.
The Good Lord set to join PB?
No, Keiran Pedley of GFK NOP.
They were the pollsters who were the most accurate pollster at the 2005 GE, and worked on the 2010 and the 2015 exit polls.
Oh!
It would be nice to have NOP doing regular polls again. And Gallop. And Harris. And Angus Reid.
#bringiton
Angus Reid they were very funny.
Huge Tory Majority nailed on.
Rod Crosby is the AR of 2015 IMO or it could be me of course.
Has Rod actually made a prediction? I know a while ago he inferred that his beloved Tories would be 100+ seats ahead...
I reported the Lssible Tory Maj.
What's changed?
I don't 2010...
Have you been generally surprised by the effectiveness of the government? I remember from 05-10 you didn't rate Cameron at all, LOL!
That is true. I thought he was crap, until he became PM, and then I saw Miliband. Not much of an endorsement, but he as at least grown a little in the job, and Ed would turn us into an international joke, I fear.
You don't think he'd grow in the job too? He's already proven those who believed his caricatured persona were wrong to do so.
On the face of it this looks like the SNP desperate to ensure the continuance of a Tory-led government so they can get their beloved second referendum as soon as possible.
If Kinnock had won in 1992 we would have had no Blair. No Granita pact and no Brown. No Landslide in 97 either, indeed possibly Hague as PM.
A very different history based on small differences.
FoxsinUk OK- if Kinnock had won in 1992. What would have happened to Blair and Brown- two of the most talented politicians in the post war era? They wouldn't have disappeared. They would have surfaced somewhere, later for sure than 1997, but they would have surfaced. Blair was a figure who was always going to dominate UK politics for a period, 1997 or later. He was a one in generation, perhaps one in a lifetime figure.
The principal legal adviser to the director of public prosecutions is a barrister who worked in the same chambers as the son of Lord Janner of Braunstone until late last year, The Times has learnt.
The Crown Prosecution Service has confirmed that Alison Saunders, the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), consulted Neil Moore — who was based at the 23 Essex Street chambers where Daniel Janner, QC, works — before concluding that it was not in the public interest to prosecute the veteran Labour peer on child abuse charges.
Senior police officers privately raised concerns with the DPP about Mr Moore’s involvement in the decision-making process.
Oh dear, she's f*cked, if true. Hoffman, and ex parte McCarthy, etc.
This is all hilarious - there is zero chance of the SNP blocking Trident or any defence spending for that matter - because it is blindingly obvious Con would support Lab on both Trident and any votes required for any defence spending.
But never mind - all good fun - and potentially toxic for Lab.
Well, tomorrow is the end of registration - when do we get national data on comparative levels? Our postal votes go out on Tuesday when PV registration closes.
Idle anecdotia: I found an SNP voter last week, pondering what to do as sadly they've not put someone up here. The "oh God you might join the evil Nats" line doesn't seem to be manifesting itself here much, though I'm getting the slightly uncomfortable opposite from time to time ("Why have you ruled out a coalition with Sturgeon, she seems quite sensible?"). The Tories have switched their billboards from Salmond to "Labour will cost you £3205.63" or something like that.
After doing the first three debates, Ms Soubry is skipping the next two, so we'll have opposition-only debates just like the BBC. One Tory garden stake has appeared (vs 80 Labour ones) and one window poster (vs hundreds of Labour ones). I don't get the strategy of having just one printed and erected in a random place - surely either they should make an effort and have lots (there are more than two Conservatives in Broxtowe), or make a virtue of having none ("we do not concern ourselves with such trivia, we are debating the issues", etc.)? Perhaps more will yet appear.
And yeah, Flightpath, this is not a neutral commentary - just idle chatter after a busy day.
The left leaning friends who've discussed this with me share my opinion, rather quite liking the idea of a labour government backed up informally by the SNP.
Hear their manifesto will call for significant investment in the north of England, on a par with the level seen in the south east, this will see a lot of labour supporters in the north quite liking the idea of them having some influence.
What investment in the South East?
There's this little place you might have heard of called London.
After a lovely weekend in the Forest of Dean / Monmouth, just got back to my abode and a Tory canvassser handed me a leaflet. Anyway an interesting 5 minute conversation followed. After being asked whether I was voting Tory this time, I listed all the reasons why I wouldn't be:
1) Foreign policy misadventures in Libya (my sympathies with all those who drowned in the latest tragedy, quite right for Farage to criticise the coalition for that), the braindead sanctions on Russia, and trying to go to war in Syria save around 15 brave Tory rebels
2) Chilcott enquiry delayed after the election - Cameron not standing up to Jeremy Heywood and providing leadership
3) Ongoing child abuse inquiry with the first 2 nominees closely related to well known establishment paedophiles and no reporting before the election - a complete shambles.
4) Whole stance on man made global warming and energy policy based thereupon.
5) Ongoing trampling of civil liberties and GCHQ in cahoots with the America NSA.
6) Whole stance on the Union and independence referendum
7) Contintual adherence to the bust FPTP / lack of electoral and constitutional reform
I said I'd happily vote as a Libertarian for a Douglas Carswell UKIP leadership - amazingly enough she (Tory canvasser) agreed with a lot of the points I was making. And I didn't get round to discussing the economic reforms I'd like to see, save mentioning that the eradicating the deficit pledge in 2010 had been missed by a country mile. She did say that I should go into politics myself - now there's a thought!
Prediction:Labour over 300 Con under 250 Lib 20-30 UKIP 5 SNP45
Really? Fancy backing your prediction with hard cash? I'll lower the bar on Labour winning >290 seats (compared with your 300+) What do you say to a £20 even money bet on Labour seats. 290 seats or more you win, 289 seats or fewer I win. Settlement within 7 days of GE, by electronic bank transfer. Bet to be recorded with PtP. What do you say? Accept or reject by 9.00pm tonight.
Offer me the correct value and I will agree.
Oh and I thought you were making a confident prediction in which you actually believed. I even offered you significantly better terms but still you declined. You're evidently all mouth and no trousers mate!
Could other posters help out as I don't normally bet.
What would be correct odds for Lab>290 seats?
Why are you so concerned with so called "correct odds"? You made an unqualified seats prediction. I offered to better this in your favour and offered you an even money bet on that basis. What's your problem exactly? £20 too much for you ?..... thought so.
Well as LAB most seats is 2.96 on Betfair about 3.5 would be fair on 290+ seats.
I think PFP you are trying to take advantage or make a point maybe would be fairer.
Not at all ..... I was simply responding to a big mouth who wasn't prepared to back his judgement and tried to hide behind "market odds" as if that had anything to do with the price of fish. We can all make outlandish, unsubstantiated claims. In doing so SMukesh should remember that PB.com is first and foremost a political betting site. It's wholly academic now anyway since my 9.00pm deadline has passed, conveniently for him.
A bit much from someone who put up a 'bet of the week' at 5/6 and wouldn't back it at 10/11
Maybe, but who mentioned cutting spending in London? This forum is incredibly London and southern centric isn't it?
SNP will make a lot of friends in the north with this approach, this will lead to many northern Labour MPs not being afraid of working with the SNP.
From what was on Sky earlier they'll call for HS3 and HS2 to be accelerated towards Scotland.
Well go down well up here and leave many left leaning voters quite happy with that kind of influence.
Does Sturgeon own shares in Magic Money Tree plc ?
And whether or not PB is London and southern centric I'm not.
So you'd hear no complaints from if government spending was cut in London and instead spent on northern England transport infrastructure.
Except that isn't going to happen, irrespective of who's in government.
Increased spending on the North West infrastructure has already been announced by Osborne and also on giving more autonomy for the NHS in the northwest. Last time I looked the Liverpool Manchester line was already being upgraded. The Northern Hub has already started construction. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-26068933 Manchester and Edinburgh have their trams...
The principal legal adviser to the director of public prosecutions is a barrister who worked in the same chambers as the son of Lord Janner of Braunstone until late last year, The Times has learnt.
The Crown Prosecution Service has confirmed that Alison Saunders, the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), consulted Neil Moore — who was based at the 23 Essex Street chambers where Daniel Janner, QC, works — before concluding that it was not in the public interest to prosecute the veteran Labour peer on child abuse charges.
Senior police officers privately raised concerns with the DPP about Mr Moore’s involvement in the decision-making process.
Oh dear, she's f*cked, if true. Hoffman, and ex parte McCarthy, etc.
My sister did her pupillage there.
What a surprise, people in the establishment protecting fellow members of the establishment. Never seen that happen before!
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Tick...just 17 tocks to go. Or about 3 tocks, if you think the postal vote is likely to swing it.
The news all acoss the media tomorrow and for the rest of the campaign re the SNP will be very toxic for labour and may well be the ' game changer' in this campaign
FoxsinUk OK- if Kinnock had won in 1992. What would have happened to Blair and Brown- two of the most talented politicians in the post war era? They wouldn't have disappeared. They would have surfaced somewhere, later for sure than 1997, but they would have surfaced. Blair was a figure who was always going to dominate UK politics for a period, 1997 or later. He was a one in generation, perhaps one in a lifetime figure.
Brown would probably have succeeded John Smith as Chancellor in a Kinnock government.
Blair might have become Labour leader after 2000, opposed the Iraq war and be PM now.
Yougov have built in a Labour lead with their revised methodology.
I'd suspect anything below a Labour lead of 3 of actually being a Tory lead
How so?
Well Yougov's panel seems to be selected from those when they had Labour with a 1 point lead - but when other opinion pollsters were beginning to report conservatives leading in the polls.
No doubt they can prove their methodology, but persistently sampling a population who are almost certainly very resistant to change in their voting outlook (the keenest are the ones who have subscribed to yougov) is going to dampen the effect of any change in the voting intention of the population as a whole.
After a lovely weekend in the Forest of Dean / Monmouth, just got back to my abode and a Tory canvassser handed me a leaflet. Anyway an interesting 5 minute conversation followed. After being asked whether I was voting Tory this time, I listed all the reasons why I wouldn't be:
1) Foreign policy misadventures in Libya (my sympathies with all those who drowned in the latest tragedy, quite right for Farage to criticise the coalition for that), the braindead sanctions on Russia, and trying to go to war in Syria save around 15 brave Tory rebels
2) Chilcott enquiry delayed after the election - Cameron not standing up to Jeremy Heywood and providing leadership
3) Ongoing child abuse inquiry with the first 2 nominees closely related to well known establishment paedophiles and no reporting before the election - a complete shambles.
4) Whole stance on man made global warming and energy policy based thereupon.
5) Ongoing trampling of civil liberties and GCHQ in cahoots with the America NSA.
6) Whole stance on the Union and independence referendum
7) Contintual adherence to the bust FPTP / lack of electoral and constitutional reform
I said I'd happily vote as a Libertarian for a Douglas Carswell UKIP leadership - amazingly enough she (Tory canvasser) agreed with a lot of the points I was making. And I didn't get round to discussing the economic reforms I'd like to see, save mentioning that the eradicating the deficit pledge in 2010 had been missed by a country mile. She did say that I should go into politics myself - now there's a thought!
Yes. I am sure that the ICM polls will give the required amphetamine fix the Tories so dearly need to keep their hopes up. Better weekly too. Without ICM I would hate to see what their mood would be like.
After a lovely weekend in the Forest of Dean / Monmouth, just got back to my abode and a Tory canvassser handed me a leaflet. Anyway an interesting 5 minute conversation followed. After being asked whether I was voting Tory this time, I listed all the reasons why I wouldn't be:
1) Foreign policy misadventures in Libya (my sympathies with all those who drowned in the latest tragedy, quite right for Farage to criticise the coalition for that), the braindead sanctions on Russia, and trying to go to war in Syria save around 15 brave Tory rebels
2) Chilcott enquiry delayed after the election - Cameron not standing up to Jeremy Heywood and providing leadership
3) Ongoing child abuse inquiry with the first 2 nominees closely related to well known establishment paedophiles and no reporting before the election - a complete shambles.
4) Whole stance on man made global warming and energy policy based thereupon.
5) Ongoing trampling of civil liberties and GCHQ in cahoots with the America NSA.
6) Whole stance on the Union and independence referendum
7) Contintual adherence to the bust FPTP / lack of electoral and constitutional reform
I said I'd happily vote as a Libertarian for a Douglas Carswell UKIP leadership - amazingly enough she (Tory canvasser) agreed with a lot of the points I was making. And I didn't get round to discussing the economic reforms I'd like to see, save mentioning that the eradicating the deficit pledge in 2010 had been missed by a country mile. She did say that I should go into politics myself - now there's a thought!
I reported the L&N model, amongst others, and I don't think it was ever quite that good for the Tories. L&N themselves also forecasted something like 70 seats ahead, as recently as February. Then they changed their model!
I'm sticking to Tories most votes, most seats as I've been saying for 3 years. Majority still possible, although admittedly less likely than it once appeared.
Correct me if I'm wrong but weren't you the biggest proponent of 2010 being NOM (which it was) when the polls were showing Tory Maj. Now the polls are all but uniformly NOM you've switched for 2015 to a possible Tory Maj.
What's changed?
I don't think I've ever put the Tory majority this time higher than "possible", while I consistently thought during 2005-2010 that it was all but "impossible". In a nutshell, they started too far behind, and the pro-Labour bias was still strong.
My estimations now are based on the general atrociousness of Miliband and the Labour front bench, the historical tendency for governments to serve more than one term, the likely fall in LibDem seats to the Tories' advantage, Cameron's high PM approval, and the generally sensible and effective government we've experienced since 2010...
Thanks for responding, makes sense. If you don't mind answering what rough chance do you rate the possibility at?
Maybe, but who mentioned cutting spending in London? This forum is incredibly London and southern centric isn't it?
SNP will make a lot of friends in the north with this approach, this will lead to many northern Labour MPs not being afraid of working with the SNP.
From what was on Sky earlier they'll call for HS3 and HS2 to be accelerated towards Scotland.
Well go down well up here and leave many left leaning voters quite happy with that kind of influence.
Does Sturgeon own shares in Magic Money Tree plc ?
And whether or not PB is London and southern centric I'm not.
So you'd hear no complaints from if government spending was cut in London and instead spent on northern England transport infrastructure.
Except that isn't going to happen, irrespective of who's in government.
Increased spending on the North West infrastructure has already been announced by Osborne and also on giving more autonomy for the NHS in the northwest. Last time I looked the Liverpool Manchester line was already being upgraded. The Northern Hub has already started construction. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-26068933 Manchester and Edinburgh have their trams...
Do you ever tire of bleating propaganda ?
Its all 'paid' for by the Magic Money Tree.
And transport infrastructure spending is still far higher in London than elsewhere.
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · now YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Tick...just 17 tocks to go. Or about 3 tocks, if you think the postal vote is likely to swing it.
The news all acoss the media tomorrow and for the rest of the campaign re the SNP will be very toxic for labour and may well be the ' game changer' in this campaign
What went wrong with all the other 'game changers' ?
Yougov have built in a Labour lead with their revised methodology.
I'd suspect anything below a Labour lead of 3 of actually being a Tory lead
How so?
Well Yougov's panel seems to be selected from those when they had Labour with a 1 point lead - but when other opinion pollsters were beginning to report conservatives leading in the polls.
No doubt they can prove their methodology, but persistently sampling a population who are almost certainly very resistant to change in their voting outlook (the keenest are the ones who have subscribed to yougov) is going to dampen the effect of any change in the voting intention of the population as a whole.
Surely though that is how it is- there will not be great fluctuations from one week to the next. Ashcroft's whores drawers polling often seems quite bizarre by comparison (thanks to FoxinUK for that quote). YouGov have to hope that they have a representative sample.
ICM tomorrow will be telling because they will pull out the stops to get their sample right.
Yougov have built in a Labour lead with their revised methodology.
I'd suspect anything below a Labour lead of 3 of actually being a Tory lead
How so?
Well Yougov's panel seems to be selected from those when they had Labour with a 1 point lead - but when other opinion pollsters were beginning to report conservatives leading in the polls.
No doubt they can prove their methodology, but persistently sampling a population who are almost certainly very resistant to change in their voting outlook (the keenest are the ones who have subscribed to yougov) is going to dampen the effect of any change in the voting intention of the population as a whole.
Totally agreed - I'm disregarding YouGov as I think they are a complete joke with their methodology. JackW - I have a suggestion, ARSE avec YouGov, ARSE sans YouGov, with the latter being much better!
3) Ongoing child abuse inquiry with the first 2 nominees closely related to well known establishment paedophiles and no reporting before the election - a complete shambles.
If you are referring to Lady Butler Sloss and to Fiona Wolff I think you should clarify that:
(1) Sir Michael Havers (Butler Sloss's brother) has never been (to my knowledge) accused of paedophilia. The issue was that he was Attorney General at the time and was involved in the decision not to pursue the allegations in the 1980s
(2) Leon Brittan has been accused but never convicted.
Obviously as they are both dead there is no legal risk, but it's certainly impolite, at least, to state as fact what either false or unproven
Comments
If they do the same this year they lose.
This time it`s not.
http://gu.com/p/4vgpm
And please don't pretend London isn't in the south east, for those of is in the north it very much is and sums up why so many are happy that parties like the SNP are willing to taking about investing the same in the north as the south east.
They'll win a lot of friends up here taking about these issues that the main parties ignore.
Of the 95 polls conducted in second half of 2009, 82 of them had Tory leads of double digits, ie a comfortable Tory Majority
I'm sticking to Tories most votes, most seats as I've been saying for 3 years. Majority still possible, although admittedly less likely than it once appeared.
However its clear that the BBC at least does not believe in the competence of the electorate, we only need to look at the nature of its coverage to see that.
For any doubters about that we only need to look back at the issue of AGW where the more independently cerebral of you will recall the BBC specially organising a 'high level seminar' in 2006 which, with the necessary plausible deniability, would allow it to tell lies (because the issue was too important) about global warming.
http://ccgi.newbery1.plus.com/blog/?p=109
http://omnologos.com/full-list-of-participants-to-the-bbc-cmep-seminar-on-26-january-2006/
The 30 (or 28 it would seem) 'invited guests who are specialists in the area of climate change' were of course nothing of the kind. They are 'activists' and certainly not 'the best scientific experts'.
http://www.thegwpf.org/call-bbc-seminar-global-warming-climate-policy-coverage/
Off topic my local UKIP candidate has taken to standing at the very busy main crossroads near to where I live and seems to be just saying hello and waving. He's certainly putting the hours in but the benefit of it over traditional door-knocking seems a bit uncertain to me. Not that it'll make any difference anyway it's safe Labour but there you go.
True Finns placing 2nd.
twitter.com/AuraSalla/status/589889039240691712
And a big thanks for all your work compiling polls.
My rationale is that the LD's would jump ship at not being able to secure the Tories a working majority (either in coalition or supply and confidence). Does this sound right?
What's changed?
Well, I've had an email informing me that my application to register to vote has been received.
Now it's down to the poor overworked and underfunded electoral services department of my local council to send me an email confirming or denying my registration. Apparently.
I'm not sure they've got this process quite right....
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago
Potential Labour supporters. If you don't register the Tories win and you get 5 years of me telling you how right I was....
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6h 6 hours ago
Potential Ukip supporters. If you don't register you don't get to see me streak...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago
Potential Tory supporters. If you don't register to vote I get sacked and Owen Jones gets my job...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago
Potential SNP supporters. If you don't register to vote think how daft you'll feel, you'll be the only one...
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges · 6 hrs6 hours ago
Potential Lib Dem supporters. If you don't register to vote then...oh, who am I kidding. What's the point...
The left leaning friends who've discussed this with me share my opinion, rather quite liking the idea of a labour government backed up informally by the SNP.
Hear their manifesto will call for significant investment in the north of England, on a par with the level seen in the south east, this will see a lot of labour supporters in the north quite liking the idea of them having some influence.
What investment in the South East?
London gets 24 times as much spent on infrastructure per resident than north-east England
http://gu.com/p/4vgpm
And please don't pretend London isn't in the south east, for those of is in the north it very much is and sums up why so many are happy that parties like the SNP are willing to taking about investing the same in the north as the south east.
They'll win a lot of friends up here taking about these issues that the main parties ignore.
Cutting government spending on London is likely to upset more Labour supporters than Conservatives.
Maybe, but who mentioned cutting spending in London? This forum is incredibly London and southern centric isn't it?
SNP will make a lot of friends in the north with this approach, this will lead to many northern Labour MPs not being afraid of working with the SNP.
From what was on Sky earlier they'll call for HS3 and HS2 to be accelerated towards Scotland.
Well go down well up here and leave many left leaning voters quite happy with that kind of influence.
Nationally Labour did much better in the marginals but even there the Conservatives sometimes did better than expected - usually in seats beginning with the letter B, Battersea, Batley, Basildon, Bury N, Bolton NW.
We need some viagra, twice this season, we've not been able to get past a semi.
He makes the £55 million we spent on Andy Carroll and Stewart Downing look value for money.
The #FACup final will be played on Gerrard's birthday. Wouldn't it be great for him to be there for that?! ..... I hope he can get a ticket
On the subject of canvassing, I'm off work for the latter part of this week, so I've more hopeful I might be in with a chance of being contacted. 2 LD leaflets, 1 UKIP and 1 Lab so far, but I'm minded to give my vote to whichever side can actually be bothered to properly knock on my door in what is a very safe Tory seat. Should I let any canvasser who does knock know that, or would they think I was mocking them do you think?
And whether or not PB is London and southern centric I'm not.
So you'd hear no complaints from if government spending was cut in London and instead spent on northern England transport infrastructure.
Except that isn't going to happen, irrespective of who's in government.
Liverpool, the new Spurs?
My estimations now are based on the general atrociousness of Miliband and the Labour front bench, the historical tendency for governments to serve more than one term, the likely fall in LibDem seats to the Tories' advantage, Cameron's high PM approval, and the generally sensible and effective government we've experienced since 2010...
Ken C being one of my fave blues as some may know.
As I've said before he puts the leg-work in to his constituency and doesn't take it for granted.
295+25 is less certain. Dave probably stays but it is difficult.
Well following Ms Eagles comments today you really had better get in that line for polishing your sporran.
The fact that the SNP do not represent English constituencies and actively want to break up the UK is all the more reason to be more than suspicious of their motives in being willing to prop up a Labour minority. SNP MPs will not even represent their constituents when it comes to a host of devolved matters but would be dictating far left issues to Miliband. And that is not an idle anecdote.
The principal legal adviser to the director of public prosecutions is a barrister who worked in the same chambers as the son of Lord Janner of Braunstone until late last year, The Times has learnt.
The Crown Prosecution Service has confirmed that Alison Saunders, the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), consulted Neil Moore — who was based at the 23 Essex Street chambers where Daniel Janner, QC, works — before concluding that it was not in the public interest to prosecute the veteran Labour peer on child abuse charges.
Senior police officers privately raised concerns with the DPP about Mr Moore’s involvement in the decision-making process.
A very different history based on small differences.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a one-point lead: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
LAB lead with YouGov down to 1%
CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5
Although I've recently been vaulting up the PB Wooden Spoon League (especially after I predicted no more Lab leads for the rest of the campaign a couple of weeks ago), I'd like to point out that a year or so ago everyone laughed at me when I predicted the Lib Dems getting "only" 10% in the election.
@thetimes: Tomorrow’s front page: We will hold UK defence to ransom, SNP warns http://t.co/K74UYL4iKS http://t.co/7fVXlv1bv0
@jonwalker121: SNP says it will order Labour to delay #hs2 to Birmingham and begin construction in Scotland http://t.co/ByS1farwr9 http://t.co/wYzXSrQEVE
If Dalglish hadn't signed Suarez for him, he'd already be history.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11548611/Election-2015-SNP-prepared-to-paralyse-Armed-Forces-unless-Trident-is-scrapped.html
I'd suspect anything below a Labour lead of 3 of actually being a Tory lead
If they have all the Scottish MPs then what can they do if EdM tells them to Fack Off ?
Bring down his government possibly but they'd have much more to lose than gain at the subsequent general election.
If Kinnock had won in 1992 we would have had no Blair. No Granita pact and no Brown. No Landslide in 97 either, indeed possibly Hague as PM.
A very different history based on small differences.
FoxsinUk
OK- if Kinnock had won in 1992. What would have happened to Blair and Brown- two of the most talented politicians in the post war era? They wouldn't have disappeared. They would have surfaced somewhere, later for sure than 1997, but they would have surfaced.
Blair was a figure who was always going to dominate UK politics for a period, 1997 or later. He was a one in generation, perhaps one in a lifetime figure.
My sister did her pupillage there.
But never mind - all good fun - and potentially toxic for Lab.
Then say London, not the South East.
1) Foreign policy misadventures in Libya (my sympathies with all those who drowned in the latest tragedy, quite right for Farage to criticise the coalition for that), the braindead sanctions on Russia, and trying to go to war in Syria save around 15 brave Tory rebels
2) Chilcott enquiry delayed after the election - Cameron not standing up to Jeremy Heywood and providing leadership
3) Ongoing child abuse inquiry with the first 2 nominees closely related to well known establishment paedophiles and no reporting before the election - a complete shambles.
4) Whole stance on man made global warming and energy policy based thereupon.
5) Ongoing trampling of civil liberties and GCHQ in cahoots with the America NSA.
6) Whole stance on the Union and independence referendum
7) Contintual adherence to the bust FPTP / lack of electoral and constitutional reform
I said I'd happily vote as a Libertarian for a Douglas Carswell UKIP leadership - amazingly enough she (Tory canvasser) agreed with a lot of the points I was making. And I didn't get round to discussing the economic reforms I'd like to see, save mentioning that the eradicating the deficit pledge in 2010 had been missed by a country mile. She did say that I should go into politics myself - now there's a thought!
Last time I looked the Liverpool Manchester line was already being upgraded.
The Northern Hub has already started construction.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-26068933
Manchester and Edinburgh have their trams...
Con 7/1
Lab 1/7
Tie 8/1
http://tinyurl.com/PandasPandasPandas
Blair might have become Labour leader after 2000, opposed the Iraq war and be PM now.
No doubt they can prove their methodology, but persistently sampling a population who are almost certainly very resistant to change in their voting outlook (the keenest are the ones who have subscribed to yougov) is going to dampen the effect of any change in the voting intention of the population as a whole.
Spoken like a true fruitcake.
Its all 'paid' for by the Magic Money Tree.
And transport infrastructure spending is still far higher in London than elsewhere.
ICM tomorrow will be telling because they will pull out the stops to get their sample right.
(1) Sir Michael Havers (Butler Sloss's brother) has never been (to my knowledge) accused of paedophilia. The issue was that he was Attorney General at the time and was involved in the decision not to pursue the allegations in the 1980s
(2) Leon Brittan has been accused but never convicted.
Obviously as they are both dead there is no legal risk, but it's certainly impolite, at least, to state as fact what either false or unproven