Sunil what does your ELBOW show if yougov is left out. Personally I think there is a possibility that they are underrepresented with regards to Tories and as they report so frequently this is driving poll averaging out
Hi Nemtynakht
I did play around with this a few weeks ago, then stopped
Anyway, here is this week's ELBOW divided into YG and non-YG
YouGov only (7 polls, sample 11,232):
Lab 34.7 Con 33.2 UKIP 13.5 LD 7.9 Grn 5.2
Non-YouGov only (9 polls, sample 8,364):
Con 34.0 Lab 33.2 UKIP 13.6 LD 8.2 Grn 5.1
Looks like a stale YouGov panel. It is turning into a safety blanket for Labour. I have been in the YouGov VI at least 6 times in the past couple of weeks.
Isn't the best thing to do to take the 7 daily yougov polls and average them over the week - or take a rolling average? Then add that to the others for the average? Assuming these poll of polls are meaningful anyway. Taking 7 yougov polls and adding them to say 7 other polls and (simplistically) dividing them by 14, well that must be wrong. In any event the best you can do anyway is try to detect some trend and that surely must take 10 to 14 days to detect as well.
From someone born in Bradford and supports Burnley in Lancashire,disgusting ;-)
Born in Keighely actually, and Burnley were probably as near as any other top-class team at the time.
Keighley is in the metropolitan borough of the City of Bradford,he is what we call in football ,a Glory hunter ;-)
I know,it's Burnley = LOL
It wasn't when he was born and Keighley protects its identity as 'not-Bradford' jealously (which is ironic given that it's essentially Bradford's mini-me). But again, as it wasn't part of the district when he was growing up, either Bradford club would still have been closer, so it was glory support.
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
It happens - I make mistakes frequently. Of course (hypothetically) if an analysis were to show that of, say, 10 mistakes 9 favoured the tories (or Labour or whatever), then there might be some explanation required. Statistics can be quite a powerful tool.
Then there is, of course, analysing disparate events for common themes.
e.g. if a broadcaster (no names) significantly allowed a single political leader to present their case in a debate for longer than other political leaders then that could be something random. If the same broadcaster tended to have that same political party coming first in their news announcements much more often than another then that is probably co-incidence If the same broadcaster seemed to have a propensity to interrupt replies given by one major party leader than another - well maybe there is a reason for that as well. If the same broadcaster also tried to associate positive words with one political party (or leader) and negative words with another - well that is just how the cookie crumbles.
Now I am sure that no broadcaster would risk damage to their good name by doing these things consistently.
The headline is slightly misleading as he's been beaten by the even more pro-European Centre Party.
The question for Finland is who ends up in coalition with the Centre Party. Juha Sipila, who I met when I was tech analyst in the late 1990s, has said he's open about who he is coalition with, and refused to rule out the Eurosceptic True Finns, who came fourth on 15% of the vote.
Despite all the chat about a True Finn coalition, I suspect that there'll be a coalition with one of the other parties. We shall see...
Update: The Finns (formerly True Finns) are now on 17%... which puts them at roughly the same level as National Coalition and slightly ahead of the Social Democrats.
Well the Centre Party might have won the popular vote and The Finns are second largest party in votes, but I can see a continuation of the present government even if it composes of parties that came third, fourth, fifth and sixth.
Finland has a worse and more fragmented political system than Britain can ever have.
It's not quite as bonkers as the Netherlands, where there will almost certainly be five parties all with between 15 and 25 seats. Essentially, any coalition will require at least three parties.
Well for trivia's sake the Centre Party it's best since 2003, the Finns the second best ever (even if down 2% from last time). The ruling coalition parties: NCP is getting it's worst result since 1966, the SDP it's worst ever, the Left also the worst ever, the Greens the worst since 1987. It seems the Centre-Right-Left alliance was not that popular.
Survation. @Survation 6m6 minutes ago Survation. retweeted Sky News Tonight New polling just shown on @SkyNewsTonight The first coalition preferences of 1,826 CON/LAB/LD/UKIP/SNP voters:
D'Hondt (+1 FPTP island seat), Open Lists, No Threshold (although a de facto constituency threshold exists, varying from about 2.7% to 12.5%), List alliances permitted.
It's a test case of worse electoral systems than FPTP.
Open lists are an excellent voting system and what I'd support as first choice here, except that I wouldn't make choosing a candidate mandatory i.e. in addition to a box next to each candidate in a party's list, there'd also be a box at the top where a voter could express a preference for a party without picking a candidate (such votes would count when divvying up seats between parties but not for identifying which candidates within a list are elected).
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
It happens - I make mistakes frequently. Of course (hypothetically) if an analysis were to show that of, say, 10 mistakes 9 favoured the tories (or Labour or whatever), then there might be some explanation required. Statistics can be quite a powerful tool.
Then there is, of course, analysing disparate events for common themes.
e.g. if a broadcaster (no names) significantly allowed a single political leader to present their case in a debate for longer than other political leaders then that could be something random. If the same broadcaster tended to have that same political party coming first in their news announcements much more often than another then that is probably co-incidence If the same broadcaster seemed to have a propensity to interrupt replies given by one major party leader than another - well maybe there is a reason for that as well. If the same broadcaster also tried to associate positive words with one political party (or leader) and negative words with another - well that is just how the cookie crumbles.
Now I am sure that no broadcaster would risk damage to their good name by doing these things consistently.
Shall we give this broadcaster a codename? Perhaps 'Uncle'?
From someone born in Bradford and supports Burnley in Lancashire,disgusting ;-)
Born in Keighely actually, and Burnley were probably as near as any other top-class team at the time.
Keighley is in the metropolitan borough of the City of Bradford,he is what we call in football ,a Glory hunter ;-)
I know,it's Burnley = LOL
It wasn't when he was born and Keighley protects its identity as 'not-Bradford' jealously (which is ironic given that it's essentially Bradford's mini-me). But again, as it wasn't part of the district when he was growing up, either Bradford club would still have been closer, so it was glory support.
Survation. @Survation 6m6 minutes ago Survation. retweeted Sky News Tonight New polling just shown on @SkyNewsTonight The first coalition preferences of 1,826 CON/LAB/LD/UKIP/SNP voters:
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
It happens - I make mistakes frequently. Of course (hypothetically) if an analysis were to show that of, say, 10 mistakes 9 favoured the tories (or Labour or whatever), then there might be some explanation required. Statistics can be quite a powerful tool.
Then there is, of course, analysing disparate events for common themes.
e.g. if a broadcaster (no names) significantly allowed a single political leader to present their case in a debate for longer than other political leaders then that could be something random. If the same broadcaster tended to have that same political party coming first in their news announcements much more often than another then that is probably co-incidence If the same broadcaster seemed to have a propensity to interrupt replies given by one major party leader than another - well maybe there is a reason for that as well. If the same broadcaster also tried to associate positive words with one political party (or leader) and negative words with another - well that is just how the cookie crumbles.
Now I am sure that no broadcaster would risk damage to their good name by doing these things consistently.
Shall we give this broadcaster a codename? Perhaps 'Uncle'?
All pollsters should at least confirm that all respondents are registered to vote.
I assume they are allowed to ask?
They are. The only thing they're not allowed to ask is how someone voted at an election which hasn't yet concluded, if the results are to be published before close of poll (e.g. postal voters).
Survation. @Survation 6m6 minutes ago Survation. retweeted Sky News Tonight New polling just shown on @SkyNewsTonight The first coalition preferences of 1,826 CON/LAB/LD/UKIP/SNP voters:
The biggest thing for UKIP will be whether the broadcasters start putting up seat forecasts on the main TV news programmes in the last 48 hours.
Most people have a vague idea that UKIP will do reasonably well. We know they get 12% in the ICM wisdom - so, on average, people expect them to get 12%.
What 95% of people would realise for a second is that 12% of votes may only mean 1 to 5 seats. Most people will be flabbergasted that that could be the case.
If the majority of people see seat forecasts of UKIP getting 1 to 5 seats their vote share will crumble. The LDs lost 3% in 2010 in the final 24 hours. If UKIP is on 12% with 48 hours to go and seat forecasts get widely displayed so most people see them they could easily fall to 8% on the day.
Arguably that's already happening. I fully expect Ukip to end up with Clacton as their only seat.
All pollsters should at least confirm that all respondents are registered to vote.
I assume they are allowed to ask?
They are. The only thing they're not allowed to ask is how someone voted at an election which hasn't yet concluded, if the results are to be published before close of poll (e.g. postal voters).
Can they ask if they have already cast a postal ballot? If so, surely the question asking them how they would vote is basically asking them how the already voted? Who's going to answer something different to a vote they have already cast?
The biggest thing for UKIP will be whether the broadcasters start putting up seat forecasts on the main TV news programmes in the last 48 hours.
Most people have a vague idea that UKIP will do reasonably well. We know they get 12% in the ICM wisdom - so, on average, people expect them to get 12%.
What 95% of people would realise for a second is that 12% of votes may only mean 1 to 5 seats. Most people will be flabbergasted that that could be the case.
If the majority of people see seat forecasts of UKIP getting 1 to 5 seats their vote share will crumble. The LDs lost 3% in 2010 in the final 24 hours. If UKIP is on 12% with 48 hours to go and seat forecasts get widely displayed so most people see them they could easily fall to 8% on the day.
How could anyone possibly know how much the LDs lost in the last 24 hours of 2010?
But even if there was proof, you don't take a drop of 3 from 26 to 23 and apply it to make 12 into 9 (or 8 as you have done). You would divide 23 by 26 (0.88) and multiply the result by the UKIP score 24 hours before the GE
I was comparing polls done in the last 24 to 48 hours in 2010 to the final result.
I wasn't attempting to do a mathematical calculation suggesting what UKIP would get if it lost the same fraction of its vote this time as the LDs did in 2010. I am numerate - thanks.
I was merely illustrating the fact that things can change very dramatically at the very end - as they did in 2010 with the LDs. In my view UKIP may lose a bigger fraction of its vote at the end this time than the LDs did in 2010.
From someone born in Bradford and supports Burnley in Lancashire,disgusting ;-)
Born in Keighely actually, and Burnley were probably as near as any other top-class team at the time.
Keighley is in the metropolitan borough of the City of Bradford,he is what we call in football ,a Glory hunter ;-)
I know,it's Burnley = LOL
It wasn't when he was born and Keighley protects its identity as 'not-Bradford' jealously (which is ironic given that it's essentially Bradford's mini-me). But again, as it wasn't part of the district when he was growing up, either Bradford club would still have been closer, so it was glory support.
Glad you agree with the glory bit ;-)
To be fair to him (not something I'm generally inclined to be), he has stuck by them through thin and thin since then.
The biggest thing for UKIP will be whether the broadcasters start putting up seat forecasts on the main TV news programmes in the last 48 hours.
Most people have a vague idea that UKIP will do reasonably well. We know they get 12% in the ICM wisdom - so, on average, people expect them to get 12%.
What 95% of people would realise for a second is that 12% of votes may only mean 1 to 5 seats. Most people will be flabbergasted that that could be the case.
If the majority of people see seat forecasts of UKIP getting 1 to 5 seats their vote share will crumble. The LDs lost 3% in 2010 in the final 24 hours. If UKIP is on 12% with 48 hours to go and seat forecasts get widely displayed so most people see them they could easily fall to 8% on the day.
Arguably that's already happening. I fully expect Ukip to end up with Clacton as their only seat.
No Farage and no PDT. What more could you ask for? I suppose a unionist win in Gordon!
Survation. @Survation 6m6 minutes ago Survation. retweeted Sky News Tonight New polling just shown on @SkyNewsTonight The first coalition preferences of 1,826 CON/LAB/LD/UKIP/SNP voters:
It's not necessarily about a late swing as such. Rather it has more to do with voting factors: 1. The elderly and more Tory-inclined's propensity to vote. 2. The young, under 30, and more Labour-inclined's propensity not to bother registering to vote. 3. The Tories' better organisation in getting their vote out generally, assisted by a hugely bigger war chest. 4. The "Shy Tory" factor (as ever).
None of the above factors on their own is huge, but taken together thet probably account for far more than the 18 seat difference identified in this thread berween what the polls are suggesting and the prices on offer from the spread-betting firms and ultimately explains how and why John Major won quite comfotably in 1992.
Sorry, there's also an important 5th factor which I omitted to mention and which is new to this particular GE. Let's call it the English anti-Sturgeon/SNP Money Grubbing Very Left Wing vote. This is what it says on the can. The English voters, taken as a whole, must be sick and tired of the Scots taking an ever increasing share of social benefits across a wide range at the English taxpayers' expense. How do they best curtail this? Certainly not by voting Labour who are very likely to need to get into bed with the SNP after the GE in order to establish a workable government and equally not by voting LibDem who are on the point of becomig an irrelevance. No, the only way the English are likely to be able to limit the influence of the SNP is by voting Conservative - this fact is likely to become ever more evident as the campaign draws towards its close and is likely to be reflected in the polls.
The "English anti Sturgeon/ !!!!!!!!!!" .O h you mean the Scotophobic misogynist vote don't you. I really hope they are sick of us and boot us out. Nothing would make me happier. Begs the question why did they in the rotten Brit Establishment and Media fight tooth and nail and love bomb and lie daily to keep us under London's boot in the first place. It was Cameron/Clegg and Millibland working in cahoots to present the desperate VOW in the final week of the Referendum Campaign. Perhaps the electorate in the south will have a short memory or missed that bit of the Referendum Campaign. They cant exactly vote UKIP either as they want to keep the whole stinking bankrupt mess together as well. In short - you are effed. Best you can hope for is a Cameron majority and in 2016 the SNP and other pro Indy Parties go into Holyrood election and make it another Referendum. You could be rid of us before the Euro Referendum in 2017 I can only hope.
That is if the English voters believe the crap that the right wing Brit Press and Media churns out daily that is.
@rural_voter The polling companies have a problem. This election is not like the last, which is always true for any polling day. Who adapts to the changes correctly wins, and you will probably make a better wager going by "gut feeling" to be honest. Polling before the election only shows you where we have been, not where we are going.
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
Full disclosure may require I have significant sums dependent on EICIPM!!
I hope you have that big banner printed for the BBC to deploy on Big Ben tower when the exit poll is announced!
Mrs BJ has gone and booked a holiday when I was distracted by PB that is compulsory for me to attend for 6th to 9th mAY
I don;t think my Devon farm owner would be pleased if I over celebrate an EICIPM result.
So I will have to leave my daughter to unfurl the banner out of my bedroom window during one of her inevitable parties attended by teenagers of her acquaintance.
Edited extra bit: shade unfair to consider my query off-topic, no?
LOL. Surprised that button isn't used for every other post! Saying that, I do remember another battle between two posters involving flagging. It's the reason we aren't allowed to like a post anymore. And surprise surprise, a nat was involved.....
Mr. Foxinsox, that's very close to my first prediction in the guessing game. I do feel the Conservatives may do better. Not majority territory, but large enough that a coalition against them would be unstable (and very questionable, along Lab-Lib-SNP lines).
Mr. SMukesh, do you see Labour making sweeping gains in England, or holding on better than expected in Scotland?
To make up for 35 SLAB losses Labour in E and W would need 75 or so gains from LD and Tories. I cannot see it happening.
I stand by my Nojam prediction of 288 Con, 270 Lab which is very close to the consensus view, though my 14 for LD is definitely an outlier.
I thought I was pessimistic on the LibDems, but you're outdoing me :-)
Just believing the polls. 7-8% compared to 22% in 2010 is a hell of a drop, LDs are less certain of how they will be voting and both Locals and 2014 Euros show a bloodbath to be possible.
Incumbency and local councillors can only shore up the vote to a degree.
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
Full disclosure may require I have significant sums dependent on EICIPM!!
I hope you have that big banner printed for the BBC to deploy on Big Ben tower when the exit poll is announced!
Mrs BJ has gone and booked a holiday when I was distracted by PB that is compulsory for me to attend for 6th to 9th mAY
I don;t think my Devon farm owner would be pleased if I over celebrate an EICIPM result.
So I will have to leave my daughter to unfurl the banner out of my bedroom window during one of her inevitable parties attended by teenagers of her acquaintance.
You're on a holiday in Devon when the results come through ?
All pollsters should at least confirm that all respondents are registered to vote.
I assume they are allowed to ask?
They are. The only thing they're not allowed to ask is how someone voted at an election which hasn't yet concluded, if the results are to be published before close of poll (e.g. postal voters).
Can they ask if they have already cast a postal ballot? If so, surely the question asking them how they would vote is basically asking them how the already voted? Who's going to answer something different to a vote they have already cast?
They may be influenced by something that's happened in the campaign since they cast their vote. Though as the question is usually about a hypothetical "election being held tomorrow", rather than the real one taking place, asking about whether they have voted in the actual one is not quite the same as asking how likely it is they would vote in the hypothetical election - pretty damned close but still sufficiently distinct to avoid breaking the law.
Survation. @Survation 6m6 minutes ago Survation. retweeted Sky News Tonight New polling just shown on @SkyNewsTonight The first coalition preferences of 1,826 CON/LAB/LD/UKIP/SNP voters:
@Itwasrigged The thickest are the people who think simple solutions will solve our present problems. Blaming others gets us nowhere. It is time to "think outside the box".
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
Full disclosure may require I have significant sums dependent on EICIPM!!
I hope you have that big banner printed for the BBC to deploy on Big Ben tower when the exit poll is announced!
Mrs BJ has gone and booked a holiday when I was distracted by PB that is compulsory for me to attend for 6th to 9th mAY
I don;t think my Devon farm owner would be pleased if I over celebrate an EICIPM result.
So I will have to leave my daughter to unfurl the banner out of my bedroom window during one of her inevitable parties attended by teenagers of her acquaintance.
You're on a holiday in Devon when the results come through ?
Hope you have wifi
I would be utterly dismayed to miss election night. But I am a total anorak.
We are repeatedly told that 1992 could never happen again as polling has advanced and the methodology is now more sophisticated.
But, this is clearly wrong.
If polling was so well understood, then the variation in poll results that we currently are experiencing would not be happening.
We were probably told in 1992 that errors as significant as those of 1970 couldn't happen again.
In 1970 I vaguely remember that Wilson was about 10 points ahead a week before the election.
The last poll in 1970 had the Tories ahead.
Many of the polls in 1997 and 2001 were just as bad as in 1992. The only reason no-one noticed was because they predicted a massive Labour win and the electorate delivered a massive Labour win. In those circumstances, sixty seats here or there don't matter. If it's a close election, they do.
Survation. @Survation 6m6 minutes ago Survation. retweeted Sky News Tonight New polling just shown on @SkyNewsTonight The first coalition preferences of 1,826 CON/LAB/LD/UKIP/SNP voters:
SNP prefer Labour LAB prefer LD CON prefer LD UKIP prefer CON
The LD voters still prefer a coalition with the Tories. The decimation that is upon them will be fully deserved. To be honest, the current LDs are only a third of the 2010 voters. The other two-thirds left a long time ago.
The LDs need to understand why in the South West , for example, where the two coalition partners are in contention, only they face the wipe out. Because they went to bed with the Tories. The Tories are not suffering for that - the Libs are facing extinction !
Sunil what does your ELBOW show if yougov is left out. Personally I think there is a possibility that they are underrepresented with regards to Tories and as they report so frequently this is driving poll averaging out
Hi Nemtynakht
I did play around with this a few weeks ago, then stopped
Anyway, here is this week's ELBOW divided into YG and non-YG
YouGov only (7 polls, sample 11,232):
Lab 34.7 Con 33.2 UKIP 13.5 LD 7.9 Grn 5.2
Non-YouGov only (9 polls, sample 8,364):
Con 34.0 Lab 33.2 UKIP 13.6 LD 8.2 Grn 5.1
Interesting that Ukip, LD and green are at similar levels
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
Full disclosure may require I have significant sums dependent on EICIPM!!
I hope you have that big banner printed for the BBC to deploy on Big Ben tower when the exit poll is announced!
Mrs BJ has gone and booked a holiday when I was distracted by PB that is compulsory for me to attend for 6th to 9th mAY
I don;t think my Devon farm owner would be pleased if I over celebrate an EICIPM result.
So I will have to leave my daughter to unfurl the banner out of my bedroom window during one of her inevitable parties attended by teenagers of her acquaintance.
You're on a holiday in Devon when the results come through ?
Hope you have wifi
I would be utterly dismayed to miss election night. But I am a total anorak.
I was running a teaching course in Africa in 2010. I had to get up at 0500 as the bandwidth made daytime surfing impossible. I missed all the fun. This time I booked the Friday off so as to enjoy an all nighter. Not sure if I can make London though.
With each threat that comes from the SNP indicating that they will be the sole arbitors of what passes the House of Commons the more likely England will move to the conservatives, but not only that it is now becoming obvious that the one subject that there will be a grand coalition is over EVEL which is now certain to happen fairly soon into the new parliament. I think the SNP are overplaying their hand
All this fighting talk is foolish. The SNP are about to engage with Westminster as never before. They are about to start voting and taking part. That can only be a good thing for both Scotland and the Union. The conflict will be within the SNP. There will be those who simply want to wreck the process, prove the futility of engaging with Westminster, and cause bad blood both sides of the border, and those with the genuine interests of the Scottish people at heart, who will use their newly achieved power wisely, and legislate with ambition and intelligence. Perhaps they will end up running the whole country. Let's wait and see what happens.
The actions of the SNP by participating in Union wide legislation is going to be very interesting. They may well be a fair number who are rather unexpectedly elected and find the whole Westminster parliament rather tiresome, or they may be seduced by the bright lights of the big city. They may not be the easiest bunch to keep in line.
The SNP are going to have to engage with the rest of the Union in ways that they never have before.
They're going to be a much needed injection of fresh blood I think.
Prediction:Labour over 300 Con under 250 Lib 20-30 UKIP 5 SNP45
Really? Fancy backing your prediction with hard cash? I'll lower the bar on Labour winning >290 seats (compared with your 300+) What do you say to a £20 even money bet on Labour seats. 290 seats or more you win, 289 seats or fewer I win. Settlement within 7 days of GE, by electronic bank transfer. Bet to be recorded with PtP. What do you say? Accept or reject by 9.00pm tonight.
Mr. SMukesh, do you see Labour making sweeping gains in England, or holding on better than expected in Scotland?
To make up for 35 SLAB losses Labour in E and W would need 75 or so gains from LD and Tories. I cannot see it happening.
I stand by my Nojam prediction of 288 Con, 270 Lab which is very close to the consensus view, though my 14 for LD is definitely an outlier.
I thought I was pessimistic on the LibDems, but you're outdoing me :-)
Just believing the polls. 7-8% compared to 22% in 2010 is a hell of a drop, LDs are less certain of how they will be voting and both Locals and 2014 Euros show a bloodbath to be possible.
Incumbency and local councillors can only shore up the vote to a degree.
I agree - although I suspect the Libs will top 10% on the night... just...
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
Full disclosure may require I have significant sums dependent on EICIPM!!
I hope you have that big banner printed for the BBC to deploy on Big Ben tower when the exit poll is announced!
Mrs BJ has gone and booked a holiday when I was distracted by PB that is compulsory for me to attend for 6th to 9th mAY
I don;t think my Devon farm owner would be pleased if I over celebrate an EICIPM result.
So I will have to leave my daughter to unfurl the banner out of my bedroom window during one of her inevitable parties attended by teenagers of her acquaintance.
You're on a holiday in Devon when the results come through ?
Hope you have wifi
I would be utterly dismayed to miss election night. But I am a total anorak.
I was running a teaching course in Africa in 2010. I had to get up at 0500 as the bandwidth made daytime surfing impossible. I missed all the fun. This time I booked the Friday off so as to enjoy an all nighter. Not sure if I can make London though.
If you can do that, bigjohn can sneak a 3G tablet into his suitcase and surreptitiously connect to BBC iPlayer under his blanket.
Mr. SMukesh, do you see Labour making sweeping gains in England, or holding on better than expected in Scotland?
To make up for 35 SLAB losses Labour in E and W would need 75 or so gains from LD and Tories. I cannot see it happening.
I stand by my Nojam prediction of 288 Con, 270 Lab which is very close to the consensus view, though my 14 for LD is definitely an outlier.
You should get a calculator. Every Labour gain from the Tories reduces their distance by 2 seats not 1. If SLAB loses 35 seats then Labour would need only 42 gains from the Tories in E&W assuming that the Tory and Labour gains from the LD minus Tory loses to UKIP are equal (CON gains 14, LAB gains 10, minus 4 UKIP gains = 0), so a swing of just above 3.5% in E&W.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 2 mins2 minutes ago The great @GeorgeFoulkes says scottishlabour is outperforming SNP on the ground which is why my polls R significantly wrong #comfortpolling
Sunil what does your ELBOW show if yougov is left out. Personally I think there is a possibility that they are underrepresented with regards to Tories and as they report so frequently this is driving poll averaging out
Hi Nemtynakht
I did play around with this a few weeks ago, then stopped
Anyway, here is this week's ELBOW divided into YG and non-YG
YouGov only (7 polls, sample 11,232):
Lab 34.7 Con 33.2 UKIP 13.5 LD 7.9 Grn 5.2
Non-YouGov only (9 polls, sample 8,364):
Con 34.0 Lab 33.2 UKIP 13.6 LD 8.2 Grn 5.1
Looks like a stale YouGov panel. It is turning into a safety blanket for Labour. I have been in the YouGov VI at least 6 times in the past couple of weeks.
I did wonder about this. The lack of variation in the YouGov polls is beginning to make their approach look quite dodgy. Asking the same question over and over again and expecting a different answer... what's that the definition of?
On the other hand, last week's (12th April) ELBOW split into YG and non-YG gives this:
Prediction:Labour over 300 Con under 250 Lib 20-30 UKIP 5 SNP45
Really? Fancy backing your prediction with hard cash? I'll lower the bar on Labour winning >290 seats (compared with your 300+) What do you say to a £20 even money bet on Labour seats. 290 seats or more you win, 289 seats or fewer I win. Settlement within 7 days of GE, by electronic bank transfer. Bet to be recorded with PtP. What do you say? Accept or reject by 9.00pm tonight.
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
Full disclosure may require I have significant sums dependent on EICIPM!!
I hope you have that big banner printed for the BBC to deploy on Big Ben tower when the exit poll is announced!
Mrs BJ has gone and booked a holiday when I was distracted by PB that is compulsory for me to attend for 6th to 9th mAY
I don;t think my Devon farm owner would be pleased if I over celebrate an EICIPM result.
So I will have to leave my daughter to unfurl the banner out of my bedroom window during one of her inevitable parties attended by teenagers of her acquaintance.
You're on a holiday in Devon when the results come through ?
Hope you have wifi
Indeed would have cancelled if there was no WIFi of course I was supposed to be helping unseat the DPM will be gutted if he wins on 3rd recount!!
As a reminder to all about the SNP impact on Labour most seats:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · Apr 17 In terms of plurality LAB losses all 40 Scottish seats it could be offset by taking 20 CON seats in England & Wales.
Mr. SMukesh, do you see Labour making sweeping gains in England, or holding on better than expected in Scotland?
To make up for 35 SLAB losses Labour in E and W would need 75 or so gains from LD and Tories. I cannot see it happening.
I stand by my Nojam prediction of 288 Con, 270 Lab which is very close to the consensus view, though my 14 for LD is definitely an outlier.
I thought I was pessimistic on the LibDems, but you're outdoing me :-)
Just believing the polls. 7-8% compared to 22% in 2010 is a hell of a drop, LDs are less certain of how they will be voting and both Locals and 2014 Euros show a bloodbath to be possible.
Incumbency and local councillors can only shore up the vote to a degree.
Incumbents, local councillors and their close family and friends may be their only voters.
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
Full disclosure may require I have significant sums dependent on EICIPM!!
I hope you have that big banner printed for the BBC to deploy on Big Ben tower when the exit poll is announced!
Mrs BJ has gone and booked a holiday when I was distracted by PB that is compulsory for me to attend for 6th to 9th mAY
I don;t think my Devon farm owner would be pleased if I over celebrate an EICIPM result.
So I will have to leave my daughter to unfurl the banner out of my bedroom window during one of her inevitable parties attended by teenagers of her acquaintance.
You're on a holiday in Devon when the results come through ?
Hope you have wifi
Indeed would have cancelled if there was no WIFi of course I was supposed to be helping unseat the DPM will be gutted if he wins on 3rd recount!!
As a reminder to all about the SNP impact on Labour most seats:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · Apr 17 In terms of plurality LAB losses all 40 Scottish seats it could be offset by taking 20 CON seats in England & Wales.
@Itwasrigged The thickest are the people who think simple solutions will solve our present problems. Blaming others gets us nowhere. It is time to "think outside the box".
"Simple solutions" like renationalisation of the railways?
Prediction:Labour over 300 Con under 250 Lib 20-30 UKIP 5 SNP45
Really? Fancy backing your prediction with hard cash? I'll lower the bar on Labour winning >290 seats (compared with your 300+) What do you say to a £20 even money bet on Labour seats. 290 seats or more you win, 289 seats or fewer I win. Settlement within 7 days of GE, by electronic bank transfer. Bet to be recorded with PtP. What do you say? Accept or reject by 9.00pm tonight.
Offer me the correct value and I will agree.
Oh and I thought you were making a confident prediction in which you actually believed. I even offered you significantly better terms but still you declined. You're evidently all mouth and no trousers mate!
Prediction:Labour over 300 Con under 250 Lib 20-30 UKIP 5 SNP45
Good luck with that. I suppose it is possible that all of the pollsters are understating LAB and LD. And it's also possible that the phone pollsters are being more erroneous than the panel pollsters.
Would be a first on both, but as I say, good luck.
As a reminder to all about the SNP impact on Labour most seats:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · Apr 17 In terms of plurality LAB losses all 40 Scottish seats it could be offset by taking 20 CON seats in England & Wales.
In terms of plurality, LAB losses of all 40 Scottish seats could be offset by taking an additional 20 CON seats in England & Wales in addition to those they need to win to offset the starting gap, plus any further ones they need should the Tories take more from the Lib Dems than Labour.
@JosiasJessop There is nothing wrong with "nationalisation", you are making a monopoly work for the benefit of the public, instead of shareholders. How you manage it is the difficult part.
It's not necessarily about a late swing as such. Rather it has more to do with voting factors: ....
Sorry, there's also an important 5th factor which I omitted to mention and which is new to this particular GE. Let's call it the English anti-Sturgeon/SNP Money Grubbing Very Left Wing vote. This is what it says on the can. The English voters, taken as a whole, must be sick and tired of the Scots taking an ever increasing share of social benefits across a wide range at the English taxpayers' expense. How do they best curtail this? Certainly not by voting Labour who are very likely to need to get into bed with the SNP after the GE in order to establish a workable government and equally not by voting LibDem who are on the point of becomig an irrelevance. No, the only way the English are likely to be able to limit the influence of the SNP is by voting Conservative - this fact is likely to become ever more evident as the campaign draws towards its close and is likely to be reflected in the polls.
The "English anti Sturgeon/ !!!!!!!!!!" .O h you mean the Scotophobic misogynist vote don't you. I really hope they are sick of us and boot us out. Nothing would make me happier. Begs the question why did they in the rotten Brit Establishment and Media fight tooth and nail and love bomb and lie daily to keep us under London's boot in the first place. It was Cameron/Clegg and Millibland working in cahoots to present the desperate VOW in the final week of the Referendum Campaign. Perhaps the electorate in the south will have a short memory or missed that bit of the Referendum Campaign. They cant exactly vote UKIP either as they want to keep the whole stinking bankrupt mess together as well. In short - you are effed. Best you can hope for is a Cameron majority and in 2016 the SNP and other pro Indy Parties go into Holyrood election and make it another Referendum. You could be rid of us before the Euro Referendum in 2017 I can only hope.
That is if the English voters believe the crap that the right wing Brit Press and Media churns out daily that is.
Well thats a very good rant if its aimed at reinforcing prejudices. The stinking mess was created by Scottish banks and Scots politicians. The vote is for the one party the SNP have vowed never to do a deal with. Tories. The one the 'money grubbing left' love to hate. England is entitled to protect itself from the fruits of Labour's botched devolution and the best way to do that is to vote tory.
@rural_voter The polling companies have a problem. This election is not like the last, which is always true for any polling day. Who adapts to the changes correctly wins, and you will probably make a better wager going by "gut feeling" to be honest. Polling before the election only shows you where we have been, not where we are going.
It does not even show that. It shows something that someone has factored or filtered through the c prism of the past.
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
Full disclosure may require I have significant sums dependent on EICIPM!!
I hope you have that big banner printed for the BBC to deploy on Big Ben tower when the exit poll is announced!
Mrs BJ has gone and booked a holiday when I was distracted by PB that is compulsory for me to attend for 6th to 9th mAY
I don;t think my Devon farm owner would be pleased if I over celebrate an EICIPM result.
So I will have to leave my daughter to unfurl the banner out of my bedroom window during one of her inevitable parties attended by teenagers of her acquaintance.
You're on a holiday in Devon when the results come through ?
Hope you have wifi
Indeed would have cancelled if there was no WIFi of course I was supposed to be helping unseat the DPM will be gutted if he wins on 3rd recount!!
Some yellow diamonds up in Dore today.
But almost as many Tory posters.
Sheffield Conservatives voting Tory I reckon.
Vote Labour signs up in Crookes and Stannington ?
Posters have suddenly appeared everywhere haven't they.
Never seen this many LAB ones locally.
A tiny number of "LD winning here" ones.
You would have thought a redesign to saving deposit here would have been in order.
As a reminder to all about the SNP impact on Labour most seats:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · Apr 17 In terms of plurality LAB losses all 40 Scottish seats it could be offset by taking 20 CON seats in England & Wales.
In terms of plurality, LAB losses of all 40 Scottish seats could be offset by taking an additional 20 CON seats in England & Wales in addition to those they need to win to offset the starting gap, plus any further ones they need should the Tories take more from the Lib Dems than Labour.
Fixed it.
And the result should be around 45 LAB gains from CON needed for Labour most seats, as I explained much further down in another post.
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
Full disclosure may require I have significant sums dependent on EICIPM!!
I hope you have that big banner printed for the BBC to deploy on Big Ben tower when the exit poll is announced!
Mrs BJ has gone and booked a holiday when I was distracted by PB that is compulsory for me to attend for 6th to 9th mAY
I don;t think my Devon farm owner would be pleased if I over celebrate an EICIPM result.
So I will have to leave my daughter to unfurl the banner out of my bedroom window during one of her inevitable parties attended by teenagers of her acquaintance.
You're on a holiday in Devon when the results come through ?
Hope you have wifi
Indeed would have cancelled if there was no WIFi of course I was supposed to be helping unseat the DPM will be gutted if he wins on 3rd recount!!
Some yellow diamonds up in Dore today.
But almost as many Tory posters.
Sheffield Conservatives voting Tory I reckon.
Vote Labour signs up in Crookes and Stannington ?
Posters have suddenly appeared everywhere haven't they.
Never seen this many LAB ones locally.
A tiny number of "LD winning here" ones.
You would have thought a redesign to saving deposit here would have been in order.
Labour are screwed in Sheffield Hallam.
They are brining Gordon Brown to campaign for Oliver Coppard.
Apart from the curse of Jonah Brown striking again, if there's one person to get Tories to vote tactically for Nick Clegg, it is seeing Gordon Brown campaigning in Dore, Totley and Fulwood.
Prediction:Labour over 300 Con under 250 Lib 20-30 UKIP 5 SNP45
Really? Fancy backing your prediction with hard cash? I'll lower the bar on Labour winning >290 seats (compared with your 300+) What do you say to a £20 even money bet on Labour seats. 290 seats or more you win, 289 seats or fewer I win. Settlement within 7 days of GE, by electronic bank transfer. Bet to be recorded with PtP. What do you say? Accept or reject by 9.00pm tonight.
Offer me the correct value and I will agree.
Oh and I thought you were making a confident prediction in which you actually believed. I even offered you significantly better terms but still you declined. You're evidently all mouth and no trousers mate!
Could other posters help out as I don't normally bet.
Your comments about the intergrity of pollsters are unacceptable.
It is fine to critique their methodgolgy, but not their integrity.
I will withdraw the allegations of deliberately favouring Labour (no evidence other than the effect) - but not the suggestion that all potential conflicts of interest should be disclosed.
For full disclosure, and MikeL and TSE can attest to this, my spreadsheet of polls occasionally, and totally unintentionally, has typos giving the Tories a boost at expense of Labour.
Honest mistake.....
Full disclosure may require I have significant sums dependent on EICIPM!!
I hope you have that big banner printed for the BBC to deploy on Big Ben tower when the exit poll is announced!
Mrs BJ has gone and booked a holiday when I was distracted by PB that is compulsory for me to attend for 6th to 9th mAY
I don;t think my Devon farm owner would be pleased if I over celebrate an EICIPM result.
So I will have to leave my daughter to unfurl the banner out of my bedroom window during one of her inevitable parties attended by teenagers of her acquaintance.
You're on a holiday in Devon when the results come through ?
Hope you have wifi
Indeed would have cancelled if there was no WIFi of course I was supposed to be helping unseat the DPM will be gutted if he wins on 3rd recount!!
Some yellow diamonds up in Dore today.
But almost as many Tory posters.
Sheffield Conservatives voting Tory I reckon.
Vote Labour signs up in Crookes and Stannington ?
Posters have suddenly appeared everywhere haven't they.
Never seen this many LAB ones locally.
A tiny number of "LD winning here" ones.
You would have thought a redesign to saving deposit here would have been in order.
The Liberals may have to invoke the Human Rights Charter to save them !
Mr. Herdson, are you saying they were sixty seats too good for Labour, or too bad?
Too good.
In 1997, the nine polls in the three last days before the election gave Labour leads varying between 10% and 24%, with only two at less than 17%, and all bar one gave Labour 46% or more.
In 2001, they were a little better but all the bias was still top-side for Labour.
Mr. SMukesh, do you see Labour making sweeping gains in England, or holding on better than expected in Scotland?
To make up for 35 SLAB losses Labour in E and W would need 75 or so gains from LD and Tories. I cannot see it happening.
I stand by my Nojam prediction of 288 Con, 270 Lab which is very close to the consensus view, though my 14 for LD is definitely an outlier.
Huh ?
Let's do the maths again !
Lab 258 -35 = 223
SNP 6 + 35 = 41
Let's say Lab wins only 40 from Con in E&W.
Con 307 - 40 = 267
Lab 223+ 40 = 263
LD loses 10 to SNP makes SNP 51.
LD loses 15 to Con and 10 to Labour. LD 57 - 10 - 15 - 10 = 22
Con 267 + 15 = 278
Lab 263 + 10 = 273.
Labour does not need to make 75 gains in E&W to "make up" Scottish losses.
Now here is a person who can do math (but still needs a calculator, CON seats are 306 not 307, and 267+15 =282 not 278, but a decent effort), a necessity for profitable betting.
Comments
EdM virtually guaranteed EdB wd be Chancellor job if Labour govt here http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/18/ed-miliband-tories-labour-one-nation-conservatives-eu … I'm told civil servants worry about tensions
Best price for Ed Miliband as next Prime Minister: 10/11 (Coral) - you can do slightly better on Betfair
Best price for Ed Balls as next Chancellor: 11/8 (Ladbrokes)
In any event the best you can do anyway is try to detect some trend and that surely must take 10 to 14 days to detect as well.
Ooh
Crossover.
Then there is, of course, analysing disparate events for common themes.
e.g. if a broadcaster (no names) significantly allowed a single political leader to present their case in a debate for longer than other political leaders then that could be something random.
If the same broadcaster tended to have that same political party coming first in their news announcements much more often than another then that is probably co-incidence
If the same broadcaster seemed to have a propensity to interrupt replies given by one major party leader than another - well maybe there is a reason for that as well.
If the same broadcaster also tried to associate positive words with one political party (or leader) and negative words with another - well that is just how the cookie crumbles.
Now I am sure that no broadcaster would risk damage to their good name by doing these things consistently.
Well for trivia's sake the Centre Party it's best since 2003, the Finns the second best ever (even if down 2% from last time).
The ruling coalition parties: NCP is getting it's worst result since 1966, the SDP it's worst ever, the Left also the worst ever, the Greens the worst since 1987.
It seems the Centre-Right-Left alliance was not that popular.
Survation. retweeted Sky News Tonight
New polling just shown on @SkyNewsTonight The first coalition preferences of 1,826 CON/LAB/LD/UKIP/SNP voters:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CC-cTuLVAAAAxLn.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CC-cTtOUsAAJp39.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CC-cTrKUIAEBUId.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CC-cTsTVEAEy3UY.jpg
Open lists are an excellent voting system and what I'd support as first choice here, except that I wouldn't make choosing a candidate mandatory i.e. in addition to a box next to each candidate in a party's list, there'd also be a box at the top where a voter could express a preference for a party without picking a candidate (such votes would count when divvying up seats between parties but not for identifying which candidates within a list are elected).
"Q6.So far as you know, are you registered to vote in UK elections?"
SNP prefer Labour
LAB prefer LD
CON prefer LD
UKIP prefer CON
In 1970 I vaguely remember that Wilson was about 10 points ahead a week before the election.
In the end it is a choice between two ideas, voter registration is just a hurdle to be crossed.
I wasn't attempting to do a mathematical calculation suggesting what UKIP would get if it lost the same fraction of its vote this time as the LDs did in 2010. I am numerate - thanks.
I was merely illustrating the fact that things can change very dramatically at the very end - as they did in 2010 with the LDs. In my view UKIP may lose a bigger fraction of its vote at the end this time than the LDs did in 2010.
Con under 250
Lib 20-30
UKIP 5
SNP45
That is if the English voters believe the crap that the right wing Brit Press and Media churns out daily that is.
The polling companies have a problem. This election is not like the last, which is always true for any polling day.
Who adapts to the changes correctly wins, and you will probably make a better wager going by "gut feeling" to be honest.
Polling before the election only shows you where we have been, not where we are going.
Not sure I can see that. But, we've not long to wait until we know one way or the other.
Edited extra bit: shade unfair to consider my query off-topic, no?
Mr. Rigged, entirely possible to disagree with the SNP weltanschauung or consider Sturgeon annoying without being a misogynist or disliking Scots.
I stand by my Nojam prediction of 288 Con, 270 Lab which is very close to the consensus view, though my 14 for LD is definitely an outlier.
I don;t think my Devon farm owner would be pleased if I over celebrate an EICIPM result.
So I will have to leave my daughter to unfurl the banner out of my bedroom window during one of her inevitable parties attended by teenagers of her acquaintance.
Choose one from the list
1. Quebracho
2. Lignum Vitae
3. Gidgee
4. Snake wood
5. SLAB wood
1-4 are the hardest woods known to man
5 is the thickest
Mr. Foxinsox, that's very close to my first prediction in the guessing game. I do feel the Conservatives may do better. Not majority territory, but large enough that a coalition against them would be unstable (and very questionable, along Lab-Lib-SNP lines).
Incumbency and local councillors can only shore up the vote to a degree.
Hope you have wifi
The thickest are the people who think simple solutions will solve our present problems.
Blaming others gets us nowhere. It is time to "think outside the box".
The LDs need to understand why in the South West , for example, where the two coalition partners are in contention, only they face the wipe out. Because they went to bed with the Tories. The Tories are not suffering for that - the Libs are facing extinction !
I'll lower the bar on Labour winning >290 seats (compared with your 300+)
What do you say to a £20 even money bet on Labour seats. 290 seats or more you win, 289 seats or fewer I win. Settlement within 7 days of GE, by electronic bank transfer.
Bet to be recorded with PtP.
What do you say? Accept or reject by 9.00pm tonight.
Every Labour gain from the Tories reduces their distance by 2 seats not 1.
If SLAB loses 35 seats then Labour would need only 42 gains from the Tories in E&W assuming that the Tory and Labour gains from the LD minus Tory loses to UKIP are equal (CON gains 14, LAB gains 10, minus 4 UKIP gains = 0), so a swing of just above 3.5% in E&W.
Not 75.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 2 mins2 minutes ago
The great @GeorgeFoulkes says scottishlabour is outperforming SNP on the ground which is why my polls R significantly wrong #comfortpolling
YouGov only (5 polls, sample 7,631):
Lab 34.6
Con 33.9
UKIP 13.0
LD 7.9
Grn 5.0
Non-YouGov only (7 polls, sample 6,939):
Lab 33.9
Con 32.3
UKIP 14.6
LD 8.6
Grn 4.9
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · Apr 17
In terms of plurality LAB losses all 40 Scottish seats it could be offset by taking 20 CON seats in England & Wales.
But almost as many Tory posters.
Sheffield Conservatives voting Tory I reckon.
Vote Labour signs up in Crookes and Stannington ?
We should be getting two phone polls tomorrow, ICM and Lord A, exciting times.
But tomorrow, there's a great guest article by a pollster, that none of you will want to miss.
I even offered you significantly better terms but still you declined.
You're evidently all mouth and no trousers mate!
Would be a first on both, but as I say, good luck.
Fixed it.
http://tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/E-2015/en/tulos_kokomaa.html
And this one is not so good.
http://www.electograph.com/p/special-finl.html
Or this one.
http://yle.fi/uutiset/polls_close_in_finnish_election_live_results/7938227
So far with 88% counted.
Centre 22.3
Finns 17.6
NCP 17.5
SDP 16.5
GRN 8
Left 7.5
Finns now projected to be second largest party.
There is nothing wrong with "nationalisation", you are making a monopoly work for the benefit of the public, instead of shareholders.
How you manage it is the difficult part.
The vote is for the one party the SNP have vowed never to do a deal with. Tories. The one the 'money grubbing left' love to hate. England is entitled to protect itself from the fruits of Labour's botched devolution and the best way to do that is to vote tory.
Let's do the maths again !
Lab 258 -35 = 223
SNP 6 + 35 = 41
Let's say Lab wins only 40 from Con in E&W.
Con 307 - 40 = 267
Lab 223+ 40 = 263
LD loses 10 to SNP makes SNP 51.
LD loses 15 to Con and 10 to Labour. LD 57 - 10 - 15 - 10 = 22
Con 267 + 15 = 278
Lab 263 + 10 = 273.
Labour does not need to make 75 gains in E&W to "make up" Scottish losses.
Never seen this many LAB ones locally.
A tiny number of "LD winning here" ones.
You would have thought a redesign to saving deposit here would have been in order.
They are brining Gordon Brown to campaign for Oliver Coppard.
Apart from the curse of Jonah Brown striking again, if there's one person to get Tories to vote tactically for Nick Clegg, it is seeing Gordon Brown campaigning in Dore, Totley and Fulwood.
What would be correct odds for Lab>290 seats?
Yes, polls are a "guestimate" of what we think will happen.
Much the same as weather foercasts
Mr. Eagles, presumably by 'modern history' you refer to the Macedonian dynasty of Byzantium?
Edited extra bit: just reading Sallust at the moment. Enjoying his description of Roman degeneracy during the Jugurthine War.
In 1997, the nine polls in the three last days before the election gave Labour leads varying between 10% and 24%, with only two at less than 17%, and all bar one gave Labour 46% or more.
In 2001, they were a little better but all the bias was still top-side for Labour.
I mean, if ICM replicate that, a double digit lead for the blues is possible.
I do feel the Scottish situation and the spectre of an SNP-Labour coalition [not formal, but still] will help the Conservatives twice over.