Danny565 Umunna studied at Manchester University and would be Britain's first black PM, and is far more telegenic and charismatic than Ed Miliband (brutal I know, but it matters in politics), he will do fine in the Northern Cities while doing much better in the southern and midlands suburbs
Shall we coin a new phrase, the silent Labour voter ?
I do still think Scottish Labour won't be decimated quite this badly, purely because we know a lot of the pro-independence voters last year were people who had never voted before (often benefit-claimants). I wouldn't be surprised if they just didn't show up on election day.
But even factoring that in, that's not going to save many Labour seats at this rate; we're probably talking about a 10% defeat in Glasgow SW for example as opposed to a 20% rout. At the end of the day, Labour are going to need some miracle that causes a genuine swing to hold on to these types of places.
Labour is going to get an absolute pasting in Scotland. It took all its seats for granted and treated its electorate with contempt. Why on earth would anyone vote for that when there is a strong, consequence-free alternative?
I agree, and my big worry is that some Labour figures are going to complacently assume this is an issue just confined to Scotland because of independence. It's not: imo you hear much the same things in many of Labour's northern heartlands about the party taking them for granted and just focussing on southern middle-class voters, with the only difference being that northern England doesn't have a party like the SNP which is precision-packaged to mop up Labour voters.
Spot on. While UKIP is a right-wing party, Labour will just about hold on. Should that change, though, then it will be goodnight Vienna.
Two years of PM EdM and UKIP will be hoovering up Labour votes in northern England irrespective of what policies they have.
If UKIP elect a northern leader and shift to the left on the economy, they could wreak havoc with Labour's Northern voters.
That goes double if Labour elect Chuka Umunna as their next leader, who would go down in the North about as well as a stackload of copies of the Sun at Anfield.
Another metropolitan arsehole would be the last thing Labour need.
Normally you hope other parties are nice to you but Miliband last night really didn't want Sturgeon to be nice (and she tried!!) and he must have had 'be nasty back be nasty back' written all over his notes!! The last thing Labour want is to let England think he will do a deal with the SNP.
Pulpstar No, conservatives best interest is to ensure the unionist cause is still able to have a platform for Holyrood next year, tactical voting for Murphy to stop the SNP is best on that front
Danny565 Umunna studied at Manchester University and would be Britain's first black PM, and is far more telegenic and charismatic than Ed Miliband (brutal I know, but it matters in politics), he will do fine in the Northern Cities while doing much better in the southern and midlands suburbs
No, he would be another southern metropolitan arsehole. Being black doesn't change the fact that he is as far away from Labour's core vote as Ed.
Danny565 Umunna studied at Manchester University and would be Britain's first black PM, and is far more telegenic and charismatic than Ed Miliband (brutal I know, but it matters in politics), he will do fine in the Northern Cities while doing much better in the southern and midlands suburbs
Umunna's smugness is off the charts. He is arrogant and anyone who describes Londoners as trash is not fit to lead a party.
Pulpstar No, conservatives best interest is to ensure the unionist cause is still able to have a platform for Holyrood next year, tactical voting for Murphy to stop the SNP is best on that front
Who ever reads the above should be beware of the Murphy trap, your opponents will always support the person whom they most likely are able to beat.
The Tory support for Chukka Umunna to become Labour leader is the same trick they did with supporting Murphy as SLAB leader in order to destroy any chance Labour had in scotland.
There are huge numbers of people who just equate one side or the other of the political debate with 'bad'.
As an example we need look no further than Ed himself - he said in the last debate that he'd been 'fighting Tories all his life'. No period of decision, no period of thought - just fighting Tories. I think of myself as pretty right wing (small state), but I have never, nor would I ever, describe my political views, nor how I put them across as 'fighting socialists'.
there is quite a good argument i think for thinking of labour as a secular religon, rather than a political entity.(speaking as an apostate, obv)
The last thing Labour want is to let England think he will do a deal with the SNP.
Last night's group hug between three non-English leftwing women was very much a 'vote for us, only we will support you' image for both the Conservatives and UKIP.
I just can't see Labour most seats now - but Ed Mili PM never looked better lol
I don't think so. This is not good for him at all - it keeps the conversation on Sturgeon, and widens the gap between Labour and the Tories by 6 seats or so.
Yes - one thing to note over the last 48 hours has been how clear the LDs have been about the SNP - Danny Alexander said on BBC1 last night that it was alarming that the SNP could have any influence over the next Government.
Which means Lab + SNP/PC/Green/SDLP is going to have to get to 323 on its own.
Ladbrokes have just revised their seat prices and taking the favourite to win every seat gives:
Lab 264 SNP 53 PC 3 Green 1 SDLP 3 Total 324
So Ed makes it - but it is very, very, very tight.
Pulpstar No, conservatives best interest is to ensure the unionist cause is still able to have a platform for Holyrood next year, tactical voting for Murphy to stop the SNP is best on that front
Who ever reads the above should be beware of the Murphy trap, your opponents will always support the person whom they most likely are able to beat.
The Tory support for Chukka Umunna to become Labour leader is the same trick they did with supporting Murphy as SLAB leader in order to destroy any chance Labour had in scotland.
I think the Tories warning labour not to pick chukka,his smugness puts people off.
Tories need to tactically vote in England to stop a Labour /SNP government by saving lib dem MPs- At best it would be a con/LD government at worst a lab/LD one . Both better than a Lab/SNP one
MaxPB MP SE So what? Obama was a smug metropolitan Liberal miles apart from the white working class Democratic base and still won, if Umunna wins back some Tory voters who voted for Blair and are now voting for Cameron as well as increases ethnic turnout he can win quite easily, especially as after 10 years of a Tory led government (assuming Cameron is reelected) the mood will be for change and the Tory party will likely have shifted right after an EU referendum
There's also a new hashtag, #ScotRiots, and they are tweeting lots of quasi-haikus on it and on #WingsScotland about the rioting - dreadful nasty Nat behaviour, swearing at a cat in Auchnagatt and sic violence ...
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
UKIP.
UKIP because of the timing. Midnight makes no sense for a news release because everyone is asleep, and it is too late for the first editions.
It is too late for the first editions. That, I think, is the key. Midnight is when newspapers publish their own scoops -- because if they ran it in their first edition, all the other papers can nick it for their own later editions. Which party has just taken a million quid from a newspaper proprietor? UKIP. QED.
Speedy No, not impossible Murphy could still be First Minister in 2 elections time, who knows what will happen, especially as Holyrood is elected by PR as well as constituency seats
MaxPB MP SE So what? Obama was a smug metropolitan Liberal miles apart from the white working class Democratic base and still won, if Umunna wins back some Tory voters who voted for Blair and are now voting for Cameron as well as increases ethnic turnout he can win quite easily, especially as after 10 years of a Tory led government (assuming Cameron is reelected) the mood will be for change and the Tory party will likely have shifted right after an EU referendum
The white working class stopped being the Democrat base a long time ago, the coalition of the aggrieved took over. The media through Journolist etc. did a great job of shilling for Obama which just couldn't happen here with our more diverse media.
His election victories were nothing to write home about given the opponents and circumstances (recession, war).
Danny565 Umunna studied at Manchester University and would be Britain's first black PM, and is far more telegenic and charismatic than Ed Miliband (brutal I know, but it matters in politics), he will do fine in the Northern Cities while doing much better in the southern and midlands suburbs
Umunna's smugness is off the charts. He is arrogant and anyone who describes Londoners as trash is not fit to lead a party.
Yes, it's the smugness/arrogance that really does him in. Silly as it sounds, Northerners are very sensitive to being patronised by a certain type of southerner (NOT all or most southerners by any means, a certain type of posh, smug southerner) and Chuka unfortunately is a walking caricature of that, even moreso than Miliband.
Like ICM, they see a big increase in the Tory share of the vote.
(But in all honesty, it is a regression to the mean, last week's was an outlier, but it didn't stop a few PB lefties and the Guardian to say it was the day the polls changed)
I'm starting to believe that the dream I had in which I saw the BBC exit poll with Labour having 1-2 more seats than the Tories and largest party but being on 264 seats, might become a reality.
I just can't see Labour most seats now - but Ed Mili PM never looked better lol
I don't think so. This is not good for him at all - it keeps the conversation on Sturgeon, and widens the gap between Labour and the Tories by 6 seats or so.
Yes - one thing to note over the last 48 hours has been how clear the LDs have been about the SNP - Danny Alexander said on BBC1 last night that it was alarming that the SNP could have any influence over the next Government.
Which means Lab + SNP/PC/Green/SDLP is going to have to get to 323 on its own.
Ladbrokes have just revised their seat prices and taking the favourite to win every seat gives:
Lab 264 SNP 53 PC 3 Green 1 SDLP 3 Total 324
So Ed makes it - but it is very, very, very tight.
He's talking out of his hat, in that scenario supporting LAB would lessen the influence of SNP
There is no point going into a deal with a party with less than about 5 MPs. Any minor party would need to achieve at least some meaningful concession to avoid the stain of co-operation with a rival, and their voting power isn't worth it. That means the DUP, SNP and Lib Dems are the only partners worth factoring into these calculations.
I just can't see Labour most seats now - but Ed Mili PM never looked better lol
I don't think so. This is not good for him at all - it keeps the conversation on Sturgeon, and widens the gap between Labour and the Tories by 6 seats or so.
Yes - one thing to note over the last 48 hours has been how clear the LDs have been about the SNP - Danny Alexander said on BBC1 last night that it was alarming that the SNP could have any influence over the next Government.
Which means Lab + SNP/PC/Green/SDLP is going to have to get to 323 on its own.
Ladbrokes have just revised their seat prices and taking the favourite to win every seat gives:
Lab 264 SNP 53 PC 3 Green 1 SDLP 3 Total 324
So Ed makes it - but it is very, very, very tight.
That assumes that people like Danny Alexander will have any influence over the decision. On those numbers, he won't be there for a start.
If Lab+SNP=317 then Ed is in Downing St. If the Lib Dems are incapable of working with anyone the SNP will support and the SNP will not support the Tories, then Clegg & Co may as well just merge with the Conservatives now.
I suspect that's not what the Lib Dem activists and probably a majority of the surviving Lib Dem MPs will be after. On the above numbers, I'd anticipate an early Cameron resignation, Miliband being called to the Palace and a Lib Dem abstention on a Labour Queen's Speech and any other early votes of confidence. At the very minimum, they need to keep a new government in place until they have a new leader elected.
Survation fieldwork was yesterday / today - would be interesting to know the split - if a reasonable amount was today that's noteworthy given Con absence from the debate.
Whilst I wouldn't expect the debate to have any long term adverse consequence, I would have thought it might be negative for Con in the short-run - Miliband and Sturgeon attacking Cameron for missing the debate got a lot of airtime - not just in the debate but also on news programmes.
FalseFlag Crap, if Obama could win in the US given its history then Umunna could win here easily. Obama was also reelected in 2012 when the economic situation was not greatly in his favour and despite problems abroad too, indeed many of the white working class voted for McCain and Romney, some of the white working class may well vote UKIP or for a rightwing Tory, Umunna should be targeting moderate, middle class graduates living in the suburbs as Obama did, they are the ones who would win him the election
Pulpstar No, conservatives best interest is to ensure the unionist cause is still able to have a platform for Holyrood next year, tactical voting for Murphy to stop the SNP is best on that front
Who ever reads the above should be beware of the Murphy trap, your opponents will always support the person whom they most likely are able to beat.
The Tory support for Chukka Umunna to become Labour leader is the same trick they did with supporting Murphy as SLAB leader in order to destroy any chance Labour had in scotland.
Seriously? Every Tory I've seen comment on the issue genuinely believed Murphy to be by far the most capable candidate - potential or actual - to lead Scottish Labour. That he's presiding over a disaster is very far from being entirely his fault - the ship was holed long before he took over. Fact is at the moment they'd have trouble beating the SNP were Kier Hardie reincarnated.
I'm starting to believe that the dream I had in which I saw the BBC exit poll with Labour having 1-2 more seats than the Tories and largest party but being on 264 seats, might become a reality.
Lower bound for most seats:
650 - 59 Non Con, Non Lab seats (Scotland) - 18 NI - 4 PC (Upper limit) - Galloway - 2 Greens (Upper Limit (Bristol West)) - 30 England Lib Dem Holds (Outperformance of current expectations) - 4 UKIP (Upper end of expectations) = 266 Seats.
The Conservatives would be at the mercy of multiple parties plus every malcontent backbencher plus every marginal MP who wanted more spending on their constituency / region / subject of interest.
What the Conservatives need is some combination of:
Minimal losses to Labour (London and the North-West are the danger areas here)
Big gains from the LibDems (rural SW should be good but middle class suburbs are harder)
LibDems holding off SNP and Labour (not much chance)
A UKIP breakthrough against Labour (one or two is possible but more unlikely)
" Every Tory I've seen comment on the issue genuinely believed Murphy to be by far the most capable candidate - potential or actual - to lead Scottish Labour"
Danny Alexander appeals to me too as an MP, but perhaps this is the very issue.
Pulpstar No, conservatives best interest is to ensure the unionist cause is still able to have a platform for Holyrood next year, tactical voting for Murphy to stop the SNP is best on that front
Who ever reads the above should be beware of the Murphy trap, your opponents will always support the person whom they most likely are able to beat.
The Tory support for Chukka Umunna to become Labour leader is the same trick they did with supporting Murphy as SLAB leader in order to destroy any chance Labour had in scotland.
Seriously? Every Tory I've seen comment on the issue genuinely believed Murphy to be by far the most capable candidate - potential or actual - to lead Scottish Labour. That he's presiding over a disaster is very far from being entirely his fault - the ship was holed long before he took over. Fact is at the moment they'd have trouble beating the SNP were Kier Hardie reincarnated.
Murphy was the most capable but Findlay was the percentage choice in the circumstances (he says with losing-bet-slip spectacles on).
I'm starting to believe that the dream I had in which I saw the BBC exit poll with Labour having 1-2 more seats than the Tories and largest party but being on 264 seats, might become a reality.
Lower bound for most seats:
650 - 59 Non Con, Non Lab seats (Scotland) - 18 NI - 4 PC (Upper limit) - Galloway - 2 Greens (Upper Limit (Bristol West)) - 30 England Lib Dem Holds (Outperformance of current expectations) - 4 UKIP (Upper end of expectations) = 266 Seats.
PC could get 5 I suppose and Wyre Forest might get another NHS party
MaxPB MP SE So what? Obama was a smug metropolitan Liberal miles apart from the white working class Democratic base and still won, if Umunna wins back some Tory voters who voted for Blair and are now voting for Cameron as well as increases ethnic turnout he can win quite easily, especially as after 10 years of a Tory led government (assuming Cameron is reelected) the mood will be for change and the Tory party will likely have shifted right after an EU referendum
Umunna loves pushing progressive policies down peoples throats, whilst this might go down a treat in certain metropolitan constituencies, it will go down like a bad smell in an elevator elsewhere.
Pulpstar Moderate Tory, somewhat liberal, unionist I suppose
Thanks
The only side that's raised IndyRef 2 is the unionist one at this GE. It's a Holyrood 2016 issue ! Voting "tactically unionist" is a nonsense at this GE.
Pulpstar No, conservatives best interest is to ensure the unionist cause is still able to have a platform for Holyrood next year, tactical voting for Murphy to stop the SNP is best on that front
Who ever reads the above should be beware of the Murphy trap, your opponents will always support the person whom they most likely are able to beat.
The Tory support for Chukka Umunna to become Labour leader is the same trick they did with supporting Murphy as SLAB leader in order to destroy any chance Labour had in scotland.
Seriously? Every Tory I've seen comment on the issue genuinely believed Murphy to be by far the most capable candidate - potential or actual - to lead Scottish Labour. That he's presiding over a disaster is very far from being entirely his fault - the ship was holed long before he took over. Fact is at the moment they'd have trouble beating the SNP were Kier Hardie reincarnated.
That was their mistake if they genuinely believed that, Jim Murphy is very capable of leading the Tory party but not Scottish Labour. They were thinking like a Tory, not like an average scotsman, and an average scotsman has a very different perception of reality than an average Tory.
Looking back, it seems remarkable I thought the LDs might manage to outperform the polls and get 35 seats. 20-25 is looking the upper range, not even the likely range.
I also assume we've moved on from the 'expecting a late surge' explanation for the Tories still not breaking away, and so have fallen back on the old standby 'the polls are wrong'?
Just catching up on the debate. I really don't like the panto-esque nature of the audience (probably why I usually avoid watching QT!)
Yes, it was pretty bad. Heck, Dimbleby had to turn to them to tell them to actually let Farage speak. And Ed had some good lines that fell totally flat, while every utterance of Sturgeon resulted in hysterical ecstasy. If that's how they felt, fine, but a little more self control would not have been amiss. I feel the ITV crowd was more palatable - not restricted to silence like 5 years ago, but not trying to be the 6th participant either.
Tykejohnno/Danny565 Blair was smug, Cameron was smug, Wilson could be smug, they all won, so what?
One of the very reasons Cameron underperformed in the North last time was because of his smugness!
Was Blair really that smug, especially at the beginning of his career (before the Messiah complex kicked in post-Iraq)? People don't mind people being posh in itself, it's when they combine poshness with a sense they take themselves too seriously and look down their nose at the plebs that they rub people up the wrong way. Boris stays on the right side of that with his self-deprecation and acting like a down-to-earth everyman (whether it's contrived or not), and I would argue Blair did too.
Yes, well, Survation comes back more into line with other pollsters. The CON-UKIP total looks very high to me compared to other pollsters so we'll see..
Danny565 Umunna studied at Manchester University and would be Britain's first black PM, and is far more telegenic and charismatic than Ed Miliband (brutal I know, but it matters in politics), he will do fine in the Northern Cities while doing much better in the southern and midlands suburbs
Your background does not count for very much. What matters is how you come across. This is shown by former stockbroker Nigel Farage seeming like the bloke down the pub. And Chukka Umunna comes across as a metropolitan professional type.
Pulpstar Moderate Tory, somewhat liberal, unionist I suppose
Thanks
The only side that's raised IndyRef 2 is the unionist one at this GE. It's a Holyrood 2016 issue
I rather think the point is the unionist side don't think it should be a Holyrood 2016 issue either, and are trying to head things off early, especially since as there's no point in being cagey that it will be an issue then, and it is absurd to suggest that an SNP landslide at the GE does not have implications for the IndyRef2 issue. It's certainly relevant now what may happen in a year, so what difference does it make if it is raised now or in a year?
Page 12 - 2.1% Tory lead on constituency question.
And this is with Survation continuing with their 40:60 ratio on ABC1:C2DE which should favour Labour.
Tories 83% sure to vote that way, Lab 73%, UKIP 66%. Looks promising for the "blue team", as OGH would say.
Another poll, another poll that you can read whatever you want. I think on election day there will be a decisive shift that will enable one party to consider a minority, maybe the polls pick it ip, maybe not. ALL the polls this last month, and I mean ALL have been as much use as a chocolate teapot in telling us anything new about how this election will pan out.
Pulpstar No, conservatives best interest is to ensure the unionist cause is still able to have a platform for Holyrood next year, tactical voting for Murphy to stop the SNP is best on that front
Who ever reads the above should be beware of the Murphy trap, your opponents will always support the person whom they most likely are able to beat.
The Tory support for Chukka Umunna to become Labour leader is the same trick they did with supporting Murphy as SLAB leader in order to destroy any chance Labour had in scotland.
Seriously? Every Tory I've seen comment on the issue genuinely believed Murphy to be by far the most capable candidate - potential or actual - to lead Scottish Labour. That he's presiding over a disaster is very far from being entirely his fault - the ship was holed long before he took over. Fact is at the moment they'd have trouble beating the SNP were Kier Hardie reincarnated.
That was their mistake if they genuinely believed that, Jim Murphy is very capable of leading the Tory party but not Scottish Labour. They were thinking like a Tory, not like an average scotsman, and an average scotsman has a very different perception of reality than an average Tory.
Well, maybe. But would another nonentity from Holyrood have been any better than Lamont? Murphy was the only one (bar Brown - belatedly) who showed any fight in the referendum campaign.
There are huge numbers of people who just equate one side or the other of the political debate with 'bad'.
As an example we need look no further than Ed himself - he said in the last debate that he'd been 'fighting Tories all his life'. No period of decision, no period of thought - just fighting Tories. I think of myself as pretty right wing (small state), but I have never, nor would I ever, describe my political views, nor how I put them across as 'fighting socialists'.
there is quite a good argument i think for thinking of labour as a secular religon, rather than a political entity.(speaking as an apostate, obv)
That's rather a good way of putting it. It's not just Labour though. If you're daft enough you can believe in virtually anything, and I'm not sure at all that I escape this.
Some random examples might be;
- My word is my bond (is it really city-person?) - The meek shall inherit (how's it going so far?) - Rise of the proletariat (they on holiday?) - Democracy now (seems a long time to have waited)
Anyway the trick has to be education.
Worryingly education is precisely the place where shibboleths reside.
Pulpstar No, conservatives best interest is to ensure the unionist cause is still able to have a platform for Holyrood next year, tactical voting for Murphy to stop the SNP is best on that front
Who ever reads the above should be beware of the Murphy trap, your opponents will always support the person whom they most likely are able to beat.
The Tory support for Chukka Umunna to become Labour leader is the same trick they did with supporting Murphy as SLAB leader in order to destroy any chance Labour had in scotland.
Seriously? Every Tory I've seen comment on the issue genuinely believed Murphy to be by far the most capable candidate - potential or actual - to lead Scottish Labour. That he's presiding over a disaster is very far from being entirely his fault - the ship was holed long before he took over. Fact is at the moment they'd have trouble beating the SNP were Kier Hardie reincarnated.
Pulpstar No, conservatives best interest is to ensure the unionist cause is still able to have a platform for Holyrood next year, tactical voting for Murphy to stop the SNP is best on that front
Who ever reads the above should be beware of the Murphy trap, your opponents will always support the person whom they most likely are able to beat.
The Tory support for Chukka Umunna to become Labour leader is the same trick they did with supporting Murphy as SLAB leader in order to destroy any chance Labour had in scotland.
Seriously? Every Tory I've seen comment on the issue genuinely believed Murphy to be by far the most capable candidate - potential or actual - to lead Scottish Labour. That he's presiding over a disaster is very far from being entirely his fault - the ship was holed long before he took over. Fact is at the moment they'd have trouble beating the SNP were Kier Hardie reincarnated.
Hardie would have campaigned for yes vote.
Hardie would have agreed with UKIP on immigration.
"And this is with Survation continuing with their 40:60 ratio on ABC1:C2DE which should favour Labour."
You do know that many DE voters will be pensioners who favor the Tories, also C2 voters are blue collar workers so Pensioners+benefit claimants+Neets+Blue collar workers+ Low skilled workers=60% possible.
Danny565 Umunna studied at Manchester University and would be Britain's first black PM, and is far more telegenic and charismatic than Ed Miliband (brutal I know, but it matters in politics), he will do fine in the Northern Cities while doing much better in the southern and midlands suburbs
Your background does not count for very much. What matters is how you come across. This is shown by former stockbroker Nigel Farage seeming like the bloke down the pub. And Chukka Umunna comes across as a metropolitan professional type.
Wilson was an obvious fraud with his gannex mac and pipe - and successful politically. His background was I guess middle class (although his father was unemployed for a time) - but he played up to a working class image. He was of course academically extremely bright. I'm tempted to think that Wilson's experience with his unemployed father pushed him to socialism - maybe it did, but Tebbit's father too was unemployed with the opposite influence on his son.
Comments
Why SCON supporters seem so desperate to vote tactically for the benefit of SLAB and SLD is baffling.
One thing's for sure - they wont get any thanks for it.
The last thing Labour want is to let England think he will do a deal with the SNP.
The Tory support for Chukka Umunna to become Labour leader is the same trick they did with supporting Murphy as SLAB leader in order to destroy any chance Labour had in scotland.
5/6 under 275.5 probably the pick
Which means Lab + SNP/PC/Green/SDLP is going to have to get to 323 on its own.
Ladbrokes have just revised their seat prices and taking the favourite to win every seat gives:
Lab 264
SNP 53
PC 3
Green 1
SDLP 3
Total 324
So Ed makes it - but it is very, very, very tight.
There's also a new hashtag, #ScotRiots, and they are tweeting lots of quasi-haikus on it and on #WingsScotland about the rioting - dreadful nasty Nat behaviour, swearing at a cat in Auchnagatt and sic violence ...
Survation/Daily Mirror - General Election Poll
Headline voting intention (with change in brackets since our last poll on 9th April):
CON 34% (+4); LAB 33% (-2); UKIP 17% (+1); LD 7% (-1); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 3% (-1); AP 1% (NC)
Sample size: 1,314
Fieldwork dates: 16th - 17th April 2015
Method: GB adults interviewed online
As for Umunna polls have shown he would do better than Ed Miliband against the Tories when voters were shown videos of contendors. Indeed one Survation poll last autumn showed an Umunna led Labour Party would be on 37%, along with an Alan Johnson led Labour Party (and I admit Johnson would probably be the best of all of them for Labour). A Cooper led Labour was on 31%, Burnham led Labour 36% and Miliband led Labour 34%
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2826937/Ed-shadow-minister-plunges-dagger-Tristram-Hunt-joins-Labour-revolt-poll-says-Miliband-liability.html
His election victories were nothing to write home about given the opponents and circumstances (recession, war).
I suspect the borders seats will have more committed unionist voters.
323 for a practical majority
minus 8 DUP = 315
minus 25 Lib Dems (optimistic) = 290
minus 2 UKIP = 288 is the 'bar' for the Tories
(But in all honesty, it is a regression to the mean, last week's was an outlier, but it didn't stop a few PB lefties and the Guardian to say it was the day the polls changed)
There wont be another Con-LD coalition so if the Conservatives do well it will be ConMin.
If Lab+SNP=317 then Ed is in Downing St. If the Lib Dems are incapable of working with anyone the SNP will support and the SNP will not support the Tories, then Clegg & Co may as well just merge with the Conservatives now.
I suspect that's not what the Lib Dem activists and probably a majority of the surviving Lib Dem MPs will be after. On the above numbers, I'd anticipate an early Cameron resignation, Miliband being called to the Palace and a Lib Dem abstention on a Labour Queen's Speech and any other early votes of confidence. At the very minimum, they need to keep a new government in place until they have a new leader elected.
Page 12 - 2.1% Tory lead on constituency question.
And this is with Survation continuing with their 40:60 ratio on ABC1:C2DE which should favour Labour.
Whilst I wouldn't expect the debate to have any long term adverse consequence, I would have thought it might be negative for Con in the short-run - Miliband and Sturgeon attacking Cameron for missing the debate got a lot of airtime - not just in the debate but also on news programmes.
650 - 59 Non Con, Non Lab seats (Scotland) - 18 NI - 4 PC (Upper limit) - Galloway - 2 Greens (Upper Limit (Bristol West)) - 30 England Lib Dem Holds (Outperformance of current expectations) - 4 UKIP (Upper end of expectations) = 266 Seats.
Also, how possible is it that the Tories could end up in Scotland with second-most seats?
The Conservatives would be at the mercy of multiple parties plus every malcontent backbencher plus every marginal MP who wanted more spending on their constituency / region / subject of interest.
What the Conservatives need is some combination of:
Minimal losses to Labour (London and the North-West are the danger areas here)
Big gains from the LibDems (rural SW should be good but middle class suburbs are harder)
LibDems holding off SNP and Labour (not much chance)
A UKIP breakthrough against Labour (one or two is possible but more unlikely)
Danny Alexander appeals to me too as an MP, but perhaps this is the very issue.
The only side that's raised IndyRef 2 is the unionist one at this GE. It's a Holyrood 2016 issue ! Voting "tactically unionist" is a nonsense at this GE.
They were thinking like a Tory, not like an average scotsman, and an average scotsman has a very different perception of reality than an average Tory.
I also assume we've moved on from the 'expecting a late surge' explanation for the Tories still not breaking away, and so have fallen back on the old standby 'the polls are wrong'? True. For what it's worth, I don't find Cameron as smug as Blair. Yes, it was pretty bad. Heck, Dimbleby had to turn to them to tell them to actually let Farage speak. And Ed had some good lines that fell totally flat, while every utterance of Sturgeon resulted in hysterical ecstasy. If that's how they felt, fine, but a little more self control would not have been amiss. I feel the ITV crowd was more palatable - not restricted to silence like 5 years ago, but not trying to be the 6th participant either.
Was Blair really that smug, especially at the beginning of his career (before the Messiah complex kicked in post-Iraq)? People don't mind people being posh in itself, it's when they combine poshness with a sense they take themselves too seriously and look down their nose at the plebs that they rub people up the wrong way. Boris stays on the right side of that with his self-deprecation and acting like a down-to-earth everyman (whether it's contrived or not), and I would argue Blair did too.
What else have we got tonight?
Opinium 9pm?
You Gov 10.30pm?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015
I think on election day there will be a decisive shift that will enable one party to consider a minority, maybe the polls pick it ip, maybe not.
ALL the polls this last month, and I mean ALL have been as much use as a chocolate teapot in telling us anything new about how this election will pan out.
Some random examples might be;
- My word is my bond (is it really city-person?)
- The meek shall inherit (how's it going so far?)
- Rise of the proletariat (they on holiday?)
- Democracy now (seems a long time to have waited)
Anyway the trick has to be education.
Worryingly education is precisely the place where shibboleths reside.
You do know that many DE voters will be pensioners who favor the Tories, also C2 voters are blue collar workers so Pensioners+benefit claimants+Neets+Blue collar workers+ Low skilled workers=60% possible.
I'm tempted to think that Wilson's experience with his unemployed father pushed him to socialism - maybe it did, but Tebbit's father too was unemployed with the opposite influence on his son.