To fit the latest Ashcroft polls, I have had to change my assumption about the % of 2010 Lab voters switching to SNP from 33% to 45%. My LD and Con assumptions fit fairly well.
But the consequence is that LD lose Ross to SNP because of SNP pickup of Lab voters. LD hold Berwickshire from Con by 300 votes.
What price a Lab/Con tactical deal? Tactical votes to save Mundell and push Lamont over the line in return for tactical votes to save Murphy and A N Other?
And a Lib Con stitch up. Give us Berwickshire and we will try to help save Mings old seat and support Jo and the Gordon candidate
What do you think the former in particular would do to the Labour vote more widely? An extra 1-3% points in one seat isn't worth a comparable fall elsewhere. And not everyone rates Mr Murphy (as the pro-indy folk on this board pointed out months back).
I don't know. I just musing really on what the panic might do to make some strange bedfellows! Both Lab and the Tories have squeezable chunks in third in Murphy and Mundells seats.
What will be interesting, given that it's the Lib Dems and Labour who are suffering the demonstrable collapse in support and the Tory vote seems to be holding at ca 16-17%, is what happens swing wise in the SNP-Con straight fights from last time - Perth and North Perthshire, Angus and Banff and Buchan and perhaps Moray. Will there be a big swing here too to the SNP, or in the absence of strong Lab and Lib presence will the SNP just hold them on a small swing 'business as usual'?
Thanks. I wasn't being critical of you, just thinking that any hint of a formal Tory-SLAB linkage might do more damage more widely than benefit locally.
On those issues you raise, the problem I have with seeing much juice for the anti-SNP side is the ineradicable anti-Tory sentiment in about 3/4 of Scots - and waving the Union Flag only gets you so far after what Mr Cameron and the other Unionist parties did with the Vow and the Smith Commission. Remember that about 1/4 of Scots were pro-indy and about 1/2 of Scots were pro-devomax before the indyref campaign and even if you only swap those around, you still get about 3/4 of Scots anti-Tory and the same number (but not nec the same ones) anti-status quo.
I said the other day I was wondering if many Labour supporters would actually abstain rather than vote for he Tories or SNP, and that is perhaps worth thinking about too.
Yep,all those things labour threw at the tories,one nation,panda's and now we could have labour down in Scotland and even down in south of England(except London)
One nation labour indeed - lol.
What are the Tories doing in Scotland ? or, the North East ?
At the risk of being flippant 'governing here'? Lol This is one hell of a messy election, I love it!
Where are the LD's supposed to get their seats from next Parliament?
I've always assumed the LD's wouldn't lose as many seats as predicted but it seems quite plausible for them to receive either no seats or very few in Scotland. The ITV/Comres poll the other day suggested they may keep no seats in the South West, another traditional Liberal area.
One potentially good thing about these polls is that Labour HQ might feel the focus of the next 3 weeks has to be massively increased on Scotland, diverting attention and resource away from key battles in England and Wales?
Or is that wishful thinking on my part?
Either way, can't help feeling from this polling that the Tories are heading for a big fat nil seats north of the border again. Which would be really undeserved with Ruth D doing sterling work, their share holding up well and a No vote achieved in the indyref. To think only last September some of us expected a Tory bounce and potentially a handful of seats in contention.
I don't think party resources are that easy to concentrate, particularly at such short notice. These things take planning, preparatory work over a long period of time and people on the ground. Scottish Labour are rather in the position of the Sixth Army at Stalingrad - cut off, on their own, and fighting hopelessly to the inevitable bitter end.
I think you're too negative (again) on Tory prospects. These polls show that they are in with a chance in two seats which are too close to call, and they were only 4% behind in Dumfries and Galloway in the February Ashcroft poll. That's a handful of seats in contention.
Shall we coin a new phrase, the silent Labour voter ?
I do still think Scottish Labour won't be decimated quite this badly, purely because we know a lot of the pro-independence voters last year were people who had never voted before (often benefit-claimants). I wouldn't be surprised if they just didn't show up on election day.
But even factoring that in, that's not going to save many Labour seats at this rate; we're probably talking about a 10% defeat in Glasgow SW for example as opposed to a 20% rout. At the end of the day, Labour are going to need some miracle that causes a genuine swing to hold on to these types of places.
BBC news featuring the strong employment figures and at the same time showing David Cameron forceful rejection of the possibility of labour being held to 'hostage'' by the SNP demanding a 'ransom' of more borrowing, higher taxes, higher welfare and threat to the national security. Last night may well prove a 'pyrrhic' victory for Ed Miliband as the agenda turns to labour's relationship with the SNP and how they will dictate to RUK. I would think Lynton Crosby is sitting back thinking 'job done' as the simple message above will be repeated ad infinitum between today and 7th May. Noticed Nigel Farage was saying much the same and you can be certain Nick Clegg will follow. How this plays out will decide the election. (Just been reported the shadow Welsh Secretary Owen Smith says he favours the abolition of Trident)
Too much wishful thinking.
The Tories have still had a very poor campaign. The manifesto launch was squandered and now this Lab/SNP stuff is being overblown. The issue is that Labour will come out and say no coalition and for most people that is enough. Geeks like us understand the difference between C&S and a proper coalition but regular people really don't care, for them no coalition is enough. It stores up problems for after the election, but by then Ed will have the keys to No. 10.
A proper political earthquake, not this Ukip rumble in an ant's belly
The SNP earthquake is helping to suppress UKIP. UKIP thrive on media coverage, the frankly astonishing rise of the SNP is focusing the lime light to the north and sucking the oxygen of publicity from Farage's lungs.
One potentially good thing about these polls is that Labour HQ might feel the focus of the next 3 weeks has to be massively increased on Scotland, diverting attention and resource away from key battles in England and Wales?
Or is that wishful thinking on my part?
Either way, can't help feeling from this polling that the Tories are heading for a big fat nil seats north of the border again. Which would be really undeserved with Ruth D doing sterling work, their share holding up well and a No vote achieved in the indyref. To think only last September some of us expected a Tory bounce and potentially a handful of seats in contention.
Bob, take your head out of your posterior , she is another donkey. Only fantasists could have imagined the regional sockpuppets could win anything. Look at Mundell, I doubt he could run a bath, name any one of them that could get a real job, wipeout.
Sadly real jobs are drying up in Scotland thanks to the SNP's economic incompetence. Shocking jobs figures for Scotland in an otherwise booming market.
A proper political earthquake, not this Ukip rumble in an ant's belly
The SNP earthquake is helping to suppress UKIP. UKIP thrive on media coverage, the frankly astonishing rise of the SNP is focusing the lime light to the north and sucking the oxygen of publicity from Farage's lungs.
It's stealing publicity but at the same time helping UKIP in terms of people voting outside of the major parties and thinking this time it won't be a wasted vote.
Genuine 3-way battle to come 2nd in Scotland now. I reckon Jo Swinson might just be worth a bet at 3/1 on this polling.
Hhmmm . I'd like an extra point or two - 4/1 or 5/1. She may drift out on the basis on this poll.
Realistically she needs to add about 5 more points for her name recognition and then squeeze a few points from Labour and the Conservatives tactical switching. It's a stretch but possible.
What price a Lab/Con tactical deal? Tactical votes to save Mundell and push Lamont over the line in return for tactical votes to save Murphy and A N Other?
And a Lib Con stitch up. Give us Berwickshire and we will try to help save Mings old seat and support Jo and the Gordon candidate
What do you think the former in particular would do to the Labour vote more widely? An extra 1-3% points in one seat isn't worth a comparable fall elsewhere. And not everyone rates Mr Murphy (as the pro-indy folk on this board pointed out months back).
I don't know. I just musing really on what the panic might do to make some strange bedfellows! Both Lab and the Tories have squeezable chunks in third in Murphy and Mundells seats.
What will be interesting, given that it's the Lib Dems and Labour who are suffering the demonstrable collapse in support and the Tory vote seems to be holding at ca 16-17%, is what happens swing wise in the SNP-Con straight fights from last time - Perth and North Perthshire, Angus and Banff and Buchan and perhaps Moray. Will there be a big swing here too to the SNP, or in the absence of strong Lab and Lib presence will the SNP just hold them on a small swing 'business as usual'?
Thanks. I wasn't being critical of you, just thinking that any hint of a formal Tory-SLAB linkage might do more damage more widely than benefit locally.
On those issues you eeing much juice for the anti-SNP side is the ineradicable anti-Tory sentiment in about 3/4 of Scots - and waving the Union Flag only gets you so far after what Mr Cameron and the other Unionist parties did with the Vow and the Smith Commission. Remember that about 1/4 of Scots were pro-indy and about 1/2 of Scots were pro-devomax before the indyref campaign and even if you only swap those around, you still get about 3/4 of Scots anti-Tory and the same number (but not nec the same ones) anti-status quo.
I said the other day I was wondering if many Labour supporters would actually abstain rather than vote for he Tories or SNP, and that is perhaps worth thinking about too.
Yes, it's tricky. From the cons point of view, anywhere in Scotland they polled 30% last time they are in with a shot if they hold up and the rest split! but none of their seats if they achieved any would be safe holds at any stage. Scottish Toryism is essentially dead in the water and needs rebranding into a new centre right, pro Independence movement. As for SNP in coalition, well, this is precisely what the Unionist vote campaigned for in the referendum, for Scotland to retain a 57 seat presence in the HoC. One possible result of that at the extreme is now on the cards, Be careful what you wish for.
Yep,all those things labour threw at the tories,one nation,panda's and now we could have labour down in Scotland and even down in south of England(except London)
One nation labour indeed - lol.
What are the Tories doing in Scotland ? or, the North East ?
It was labour and miliband doing the one nation bollox.
Shall we coin a new phrase, the silent Labour voter ?
I think we will need to wait until after the election for that. Shy Tories were a factor in 1992, we know that for certain and it has been seen in subsequent elections. We have no evidence to state that the same effect exists for Labour in Scotland. These polls could be right and we're looking at a wipe out for SLAB.
A proper political earthquake, not this Ukip rumble in an ant's belly
The SNP earthquake is helping to suppress UKIP. UKIP thrive on media coverage, the frankly astonishing rise of the SNP is focusing the lime light to the north and sucking the oxygen of publicity from Farage's lungs.
It's stealing publicity but at the same time helping UKIP in terms of people voting outside of the major parties and thinking this time it won't be a wasted vote.
There was a piece the other day that pointed out that voters who are expecting a hung parliament are less likely to support Con/Lab than those that are not expecting a hung parliament.
If the SNP story increases expectation of a hung parliament, all the minor parties could benefit.
BBC news featuring the strong employment figures and at the same time showing David Cameron forceful rejection of the possibility of labour being held to 'hostage'' by the SNP demanding a 'ransom' of more borrowing, higher taxes, higher welfare and threat to the national security. Last night may well prove a 'pyrrhic' victory for Ed Miliband as the agenda turns to labour's relationship with the SNP and how they will dictate to RUK. I would think Lynton Crosby is sitting back thinking 'job done' as the simple message above will be repeated ad infinitum between today and 7th May. Noticed Nigel Farage was saying much the same and you can be certain Nick Clegg will follow. How this plays out will decide the election. (Just been reported the shadow Welsh Secretary Owen Smith says he favours the abolition of Trident)
Too much wishful thinking.
The Tories have still had a very poor campaign. The manifesto launch was squandered and now this Lab/SNP stuff is being overblown. The issue is that Labour will come out and say no coalition and for most people that is enough. Geeks like us understand the difference between C&S and a proper coalition but regular people really don't care, for them no coalition is enough. It stores up problems for after the election, but by then Ed will have the keys to No. 10.
With the greatest of respect I don't think it's me that is doing the wishful thinking. While the conservative campaign has been poor to date the real concentration on minds begins now with all the schools back from Easter.
If Murphy loses will he have to resign as SLab leader?
Because he won't be a member of any Parliament - which I think is a requirement under the leadership rules.
LOL.
I hope so, James Kelly is the one who fits the bill as a capable SLAB leader. And I was one of the very few here that predicted that Murphy was going to bomb, so my opinion on this might carry a little more weight than others who predicted that Murphy was going to be the next leader of the Labour party.
Anybody who had any clue would have known Murphy was toast, his back stabbing of Lamont , being a right winger and generally being very unpopular in Scotland made it a certainty. Fact he is useless to boot helped.
PS Kelly is not even Donkey level.
Kelly fits the profile of a SLAB leader like a glove, he is a Glasgow MSP and his area is law and infrastructure, his profile is good if you want to fight the SNP on grounds of lefty localism.
No, the centre right in Scotland will only prosper gain when it sheds the Tory label and sheds Unionism. The writing is on the wall, it's time to plan for a future apart.
A proper political earthquake, not this Ukip rumble in an ant's belly
The SNP earthquake is helping to suppress UKIP. UKIP thrive on media coverage, the frankly astonishing rise of the SNP is focusing the lime light to the north and sucking the oxygen of publicity from Farage's lungs.
Meh. UKIP are still very likely to get over 10% of the vote (i.e. twice that of the Nats, and possibly more than the LDS) thus coming THIRD in vote share,
That is an earthquake of its own. UKIP were trivially insignificant in 2010. Not any more. And they will have a few MPs, too.
In the face of a pathetic Miliband-Sturgeon non-Coalition, milking the English taxpayer, the vehemently English UKIP could prosper, mightily.
They have every reason to be optimistic in the medium term even as they face squalls right now. Remember they are following the electoral path the Nats have already established. From joke to irritant to player to government.
The UKIP bubble will pop just as surely as the BNP bubble before it.
A Miliband-Sturgeon non-coalition will see the (non-extremist) right unite behind the Conservatives under a new leader, not the party with 4 seats if they're lucky.
Genuine 3-way battle to come 2nd in Scotland now. I reckon Jo Swinson might just be worth a bet at 3/1 on this polling.
Hhmmm . I'd like an extra point or two - 4/1 or 5/1. She may drift out on the basis on this poll.
Realistically she needs to add about 5 more points for her name recognition and then squeeze a few points from Labour and the Conservatives tactical switching. It's a stretch but possible.
It's not impossible to think the LibDems could get four seats in Scotland
Jo (20% chance) The good Viscount (33% chance) BR&S (33% chance) Orkney & Shetland (80% chance)
Genuine 3-way battle to come 2nd in Scotland now. I reckon Jo Swinson might just be worth a bet at 3/1 on this polling.
Hhmmm . I'd like an extra point or two - 4/1 or 5/1. She may drift out on the basis on this poll.
Realistically she needs to add about 5 more points for her name recognition and then squeeze a few points from Labour and the Conservatives tactical switching. It's a stretch but possible.
It's not impossible to think the LibDems could get four seats in Scotland
Jo (20% chance) The good Viscount (33% chance) BR&S (33% chance) Orkney & Shetland (80% chance)
In fact, it's not impossible that the LibDems could be SIXTH in Scotland (behind SNP, Lab, Con, UKIP, Green) in terms of vote share, but could be the only party other than the SNP with a seat in the country.
Mr. Woolie, an English Parliament could yet rectify the situation. I suspect it won't, because the left want to fiddle fiefdoms and the Conservatives appear afraid of emasculating Westminster. But it could.
Genuine 3-way battle to come 2nd in Scotland now. I reckon Jo Swinson might just be worth a bet at 3/1 on this polling.
Hhmmm . I'd like an extra point or two - 4/1 or 5/1. She may drift out on the basis on this poll.
Realistically she needs to add about 5 more points for her name recognition and then squeeze a few points from Labour and the Conservatives tactical switching. It's a stretch but possible.
It's not impossible to think the LibDems could get four seats in Scotland
Jo (20% chance) The good Viscount (33% chance) BR&S (33% chance) Orkney & Shetland (80% chance)
In fact, it's not impossible that the LibDems could be SIXTH in Scotland (behind SNP, Lab, Con, UKIP, Green) in terms of vote share, but could be the only party other than the SNP with a seat in the country.
The LD's are very fortunate that we have FPTP now.
If we operated on PR with a 5% threshold then the LD's would have as many seats next month as the FDP have in the Bundestag.
Mr. Woolie, an English Parliament could yet rectify the situation. I suspect it won't, because the left want to fiddle fiefdoms and the Conservatives appear afraid of emasculating Westminster. But it could.
In England and for the retention of the UK, yes. But the Cons are going nowhere in Scotland and will not again IMO.
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
A proper political earthquake, not this Ukip rumble in an ant's belly
The SNP earthquake is helping to suppress UKIP. UKIP thrive on media coverage, the frankly astonishing rise of the SNP is focusing the lime light to the north and sucking the oxygen of publicity from Farage's lungs.
Meh. UKIP are still very likely to get over 10% of the vote (i.e. twice that of the Nats, and possibly more than the LDS) thus coming THIRD in vote share,
That is an earthquake of its own. UKIP were trivially insignificant in 2010. Not any more. And they will have a few MPs, too.
In the face of a pathetic Miliband-Sturgeon non-Coalition, milking the English taxpayer, the vehemently English UKIP could prosper, mightily.
They have every reason to be optimistic in the medium term even as they face squalls right now. Remember they are following the electoral path the Nats have already established. From joke to irritant to player to government.
The UKIP bubble will pop just as surely as the BNP bubble before it.
A Miliband-Sturgeon non-coalition will see the (non-extremist) right unite behind the Conservatives under a new leader, not the party with 4 seats if they're lucky.
A proper political earthquake, not this Ukip rumble in an ant's belly
The SNP earthquake is helping to suppress UKIP. UKIP thrive on media coverage, the frankly astonishing rise of the SNP is focusing the lime light to the north and sucking the oxygen of publicity from Farage's lungs.
Meh. UKIP are still very likely to get over 10% of the vote (i.e. twice that of the Nats, and possibly more than the LDS) thus coming THIRD in vote share,
That is an earthquake of its own. UKIP were trivially insignificant in 2010. Not any more. And they will have a few MPs, too.
In the face of a pathetic Miliband-Sturgeon non-Coalition, milking the English taxpayer, the vehemently English UKIP could prosper, mightily.
They have every reason to be optimistic in the medium term even as they face squalls right now. Remember they are following the electoral path the Nats have already established. From joke to irritant to player to government.
The UKIP bubble will pop just as surely as the BNP bubble before it.
A Miliband-Sturgeon non-coalition will see the (non-extremist) right unite behind the Conservatives under a new leader, not the party with 4 seats if they're lucky.
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
It's getting a bit Kinnock of Sheffield. 'As Prime Minister, We're Alrigghhtt!'
Genuine 3-way battle to come 2nd in Scotland now. I reckon Jo Swinson might just be worth a bet at 3/1 on this polling.
Hhmmm . I'd like an extra point or two - 4/1 or 5/1. She may drift out on the basis on this poll.
Realistically she needs to add about 5 more points for her name recognition and then squeeze a few points from Labour and the Conservatives tactical switching. It's a stretch but possible.
It's not impossible to think the LibDems could get four seats in Scotland
Jo (20% chance) The good Viscount (33% chance) BR&S (33% chance) Orkney & Shetland (80% chance)
In fact, it's not impossible that the LibDems could be SIXTH in Scotland (behind SNP, Lab, Con, UKIP, Green) in terms of vote share, but could be the only party other than the SNP with a seat in the country.
Possible rather than probable.
I think it likely that incumbents will considerably outperform the polls and that will ensure SNP fail in up to 20 seats. We may also see the Unionist parties tactical voting for the best candidate to deprive the SNP. Probably worth several points and may edge some tight calls into the Unionist column.
That said the SNP are in for an excellent FPTP performance.
After getting literally one positive comment about the Conservative Prayer a few weeks ago, I thought Labour might like one.
Our leader, who art in Doncaster, hallowed be thy energy freeze, give us this day our bacon sandwiches, and forgive us our smears, as we forgive those who smear against us, and lead us not into opposition (again), but deliver us from the SNP, for thine is the Labour Party, until you lose an election, amen.
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
eh? what? why would anyone do that, unless it's something 'special'?
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
A proper political earthquake, not this Ukip rumble in an ant's belly
The SNP earthquake is helping to suppress UKIP. UKIP thrive on media coverage, the frankly astonishing rise of the SNP is focusing the lime light to the north and sucking the oxygen of publicity from Farage's lungs.
Meh. UKIP are still very likely to get over 10% of the vote (i.e. twice that of the Nats, and possibly more than the LDS) thus coming THIRD in vote share,
That is an earthquake of its own. UKIP were trivially insignificant in 2010. Not any more. And they will have a few MPs, too.
In the face of a pathetic Miliband-Sturgeon non-Coalition, milking the English taxpayer, the vehemently English UKIP could prosper, mightily.
They have every reason to be optimistic in the medium term even as they face squalls right now. Remember they are following the electoral path the Nats have already established. From joke to irritant to player to government.
The UKIP bubble will pop just as surely as the BNP bubble before it.
A Miliband-Sturgeon non-coalition will see the (non-extremist) right unite behind the Conservatives under a new leader, not the party with 4 seats if they're lucky.
One potentially good thing about these polls is that Labour HQ might feel the focus of the next 3 weeks has to be massively increased on Scotland, diverting attention and resource away from key battles in England and Wales?
Or is that wishful thinking on my part?
Either way, can't help feeling from this polling that the Tories are heading for a big fat nil seats north of the border again. Which would be really undeserved with Ruth D doing sterling work, their share holding up well and a No vote achieved in the indyref. To think only last September some of us expected a Tory bounce and potentially a handful of seats in contention.
Bob, take your head out of your posterior , she is another donkey. Only fantasists could have imagined the regional sockpuppets could win anything. Look at Mundell, I doubt he could run a bath, name any one of them that could get a real job, wipeout.
Sadly real jobs are drying up in Scotland thanks to the SNP's economic incompetence. Shocking jobs figures for Scotland in an otherwise booming market.
Doomed I tell you Doomed , the only boom is the one in your head
His majority is nearly 15%. Geez, really could be electoral yellow blood on carpet!
What's really amazing is that there will be a LibDem bloodbath... but it is still likely they will have 10x the number of seats of UKIP and will have more seats they had in 1983 or 1987.
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
eh? what? why would anyone do that, unless it's something 'special'?
A proper political earthquake, not this Ukip rumble in an ant's belly
The SNP earthquake is helping to suppress UKIP. UKIP thrive on media coverage, the frankly astonishing rise of the SNP is focusing the lime light to the north and sucking the oxygen of publicity from Farage's lungs.
Meh. UKIP are still very likely to get over 10% of the vote (i.e. twice that of the Nats, and possibly more than the LDS) thus coming THIRD in vote share,
That is an earthquake of its own. UKIP were trivially insignificant in 2010. Not any more. And they will have a few MPs, too.
In the face of a pathetic Miliband-Sturgeon non-Coalition, milking the English taxpayer, the vehemently English UKIP could prosper, mightily.
They have every reason to be optimistic in the medium term even as they face squalls right now. Remember they are following the electoral path the Nats have already established. From joke to irritant to player to government.
The UKIP bubble will pop just as surely as the BNP bubble before it.
A Miliband-Sturgeon non-coalition will see the (non-extremist) right unite behind the Conservatives under a new leader, not the party with 4 seats if they're lucky.
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
Why would anyone do this? Hubris/tempting fate etc etc......
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
eh? what? why would anyone do that, unless it's something 'special'?
If it is labour,Blair anyone ;-)
Or Mr Brown as SoS for Scotland? Doesn't make sense given his retirement - but it may be something of the ilk: a de-Murphifying move to try and regain the initiative in Scotland.
Rotherham council, the South Yorkshire plods and the CPS must form a critical mass of unfitness for purpose:
' A woman was arrested and held in a police cell for six hours after pruning overhanging branches from a neighbour’s tree.
Karen Gaynor was detained, charged with criminal damage and spent seven months on bail after prosecutors decided she had cut the conifer back too much, in a boundary dispute with her neighbour.
Rotherham Magistrates’ Court took just 15 minutes to clear the 53-year-old mother of two after instead deciding she had acted with good intentions.
Speaking after her trial, she said she was “disgusted” at her treatment by the police and council.
Ms Gaynor said: "I'm delighted and relieved with the result but disgusted at how I have been treated."
She added that after the child sex abuse scandal which has struck Rotherham in recent months, “to think that the police and council have the time, money and resources to waste on such a silly thing as a tree, is disgusting." '
Even in that post, the river in Egypt makes an appearance:
"For what it’s worth, I still don’t expect Labour to be wiped out in Scotland to the extent that Ashcroft’s polls suggest. Those campaigning for Scottish Labour on the ground – hardened by a gruelling independence campaign – believe that seats like Alexander’s and Murphy’s will still be held. Certainly they remain more in play than this poll would suggest. "
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
eh? what? why would anyone do that, unless it's something 'special'?
If it is labour,Blair anyone ;-)
Or Mr Brown as SoS for Scotland? Doesn't make sense given his retirement - but it may be something of the ilk: a de-Murphifying move to try and regain the initiative in Scotland.
It's probably Labour and the only reason I can think of why they think they need to make that announcement is scotland.
So Brown in the cabinet is probably a reasonable guess.
Jo Swinson's private polling may have been well dodgy, but incumbency and a bit of tactical unionist voting makes her worth a punt at 5-1.
I've taken the max at Coral (£25) on this and have succesfully covered the gap in my book after taking an atrocious 1-2 on Labour there last year (And SNP 50-1)
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
eh? what? why would anyone do that, unless it's something 'special'?
If it is labour,Blair anyone ;-)
Or Mr Brown as SoS for Scotland? Doesn't make sense given his retirement - but it may be something of the ilk: a de-Murphifying move to try and regain the initiative in Scotland.
It's probably Labour and the only reason I can think of why they think they need to make that announcement is scotland.
So Brown in the cabinet is probably a reasonable guess.
Hmm. This might, then, turn out to be prescient, from a few days ago:
@SamCoatesTimes: Tonight at midnight, one of the main political parties will announce a ministerial appointment in the next government (if they win). Gosh.
UKIP.
UKIP because of the timing. Midnight makes no sense for a news release because everyone is asleep, and it is too late for the first editions.
It is too late for the first editions. That, I think, is the key. Midnight is when newspapers publish their own scoops -- because if they ran it in their first edition, all the other papers can nick it for their own later editions. Which party has just taken a million quid from a newspaper proprietor? UKIP. QED.
The UKIP bubble will pop just as surely as the BNP bubble before it.
A Miliband-Sturgeon non-coalition will see the (non-extremist) right unite behind the Conservatives under a new leader, not the party with 4 seats if they're lucky.
1: A five year moratorium on unskilled migration (at a time we're nearing full employment). 2: Leaving the EU (the proposed question on the referendum is absurdly biased) 3: Opposing TTIP (free trade agreement with the USA).
But basically the problem is pension cuts and tax increases that the EU is demanding. Even the slightest EU demand cannot probably pass the greek parliament much less the current demands.
Comments
But the consequence is that LD lose Ross to SNP because of SNP pickup of Lab voters.
LD hold Berwickshire from Con by 300 votes.
Overall, LD 2, SNP 57, Con 0, Lab 0
On those issues you raise, the problem I have with seeing much juice for the anti-SNP side is the ineradicable anti-Tory sentiment in about 3/4 of Scots - and waving the Union Flag only gets you so far after what Mr Cameron and the other Unionist parties did with the Vow and the Smith Commission. Remember that about 1/4 of Scots were pro-indy and about 1/2 of Scots were pro-devomax before the indyref campaign and even if you only swap those around, you still get about 3/4 of Scots anti-Tory and the same number (but not nec the same ones) anti-status quo.
I said the other day I was wondering if many Labour supporters would actually abstain rather than vote for he Tories or SNP, and that is perhaps worth thinking about too.
This is one hell of a messy election, I love it!
I think you're too negative (again) on Tory prospects. These polls show that they are in with a chance in two seats which are too close to call, and they were only 4% behind in Dumfries and Galloway in the February Ashcroft poll. That's a handful of seats in contention.
But even factoring that in, that's not going to save many Labour seats at this rate; we're probably talking about a 10% defeat in Glasgow SW for example as opposed to a 20% rout. At the end of the day, Labour are going to need some miracle that causes a genuine swing to hold on to these types of places.
The Tories have still had a very poor campaign. The manifesto launch was squandered and now this Lab/SNP stuff is being overblown. The issue is that Labour will come out and say no coalition and for most people that is enough. Geeks like us understand the difference between C&S and a proper coalition but regular people really don't care, for them no coalition is enough. It stores up problems for after the election, but by then Ed will have the keys to No. 10.
Jack's point about named incumbents is significant; OR
You have a fantastic opportunity!
Shocking jobs figures for Scotland in an otherwise booming market.
So if Con is flat nationally there is scope for them to do a bit better in key seats for them.
Realistically she needs to add about 5 more points for her name recognition and then squeeze a few points from Labour and the Conservatives tactical switching. It's a stretch but possible.
As for SNP in coalition, well, this is precisely what the Unionist vote campaigned for in the referendum, for Scotland to retain a 57 seat presence in the HoC. One possible result of that at the extreme is now on the cards,
Be careful what you wish for.
If the SNP story increases expectation of a hung parliament, all the minor parties could benefit.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/why-all-this-talk-of-a-hung-parliament-could-be-a-self-fulfilling-prophecy/
Bath
Bermondsey & Old Southwark
Birmingham Yardley (oo)
Bradford East (o)
Brecon & Radnorshire
Bristol West (o)
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross (o)
Cambridge
Carshalton & Wallington
Ceridigion
Colchester
Eastleigh (o)
Eastbourne
Hazel Grove
Horney & Wood Green (oo)
Kingston & Surbiton (o)
Lewes
Orkney & Shetland
Twickenham
Sheffield Hallam
Sutton & Cheam
Watford (oo)
Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Yeovil
o = Might well not be held
oo = An outside shot
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/msps/currentmsps/James-Kelly-MSP.aspx
But we don't have to wait long to see if he's up for the job or not:
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/james-kelly-msp-happy-new-4856504
"Rutherglen MSP James Kelly has been handed to task of leading the Labour campaign for the 2016 Scottish Elections."
I can't afford any more.
These Ashcroft polls have cleaned me out lol
In these seats alone, Labour has lost the following percentage of 2010 voters:
DC and T: 31%
RS and L: 60%
NE Fife: 47%
East dunbartonshire: 53%
B,R and S: 10%
East renfrew: 40%
Glasgow SE: 46%
Paisley: 35%
Labour in the low 20s looks more likely than the high 20s numbers being seen in some of the net polling.
A Miliband-Sturgeon non-coalition will see the (non-extremist) right unite behind the Conservatives under a new leader, not the party with 4 seats if they're lucky.
Jo (20% chance)
The good Viscount (33% chance)
BR&S (33% chance)
Orkney & Shetland (80% chance)
You can still get 11/10 on the SNP in Glasgow South West with BoyleSports. Not too shabby for a 21% poll lead, I'd say.
https://twitter.com/Mattzel89/status/588787038519963648
Mr. Woolie, an English Parliament could yet rectify the situation. I suspect it won't, because the left want to fiddle fiefdoms and the Conservatives appear afraid of emasculating Westminster. But it could.
If we operated on PR with a 5% threshold then the LD's would have as many seats next month as the FDP have in the Bundestag.
Yes, we all knew they were going to take a beating but what's indicated in these polls is truly unbelievable
I expected SNP 47, Lab 12 at the GE. I might have to revise that to SNP 59, Others 0!
Incredibly sad,
I'd reckon the Libs to hold 18 to 22 of my list of 25.
There may be one or two outside the list.
But I'd be surprised.
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_manifesto_summary
That doesn't make sense, syntactically, to me.
I think it likely that incumbents will considerably outperform the polls and that will ensure SNP fail in up to 20 seats. We may also see the Unionist parties tactical voting for the best candidate to deprive the SNP. Probably worth several points and may edge some tight calls into the Unionist column.
That said the SNP are in for an excellent FPTP performance.
Our leader,
who art in Doncaster,
hallowed be thy energy freeze,
give us this day our bacon sandwiches,
and forgive us our smears, as we forgive those who smear against us,
and lead us not into opposition (again),
but deliver us from the SNP,
for thine is the Labour Party,
until you lose an election,
amen.
Suffering from too many re-drafts.
The latest Ashcroft poll of Scottish seats is more than a mere earthquake – it’s a cataclysm.
http://labourlist.org/2015/04/the-latest-ashcroft-poll-of-scottish-seats-is-more-than-a-mere-earthquake-its-a-cataclysm/
Vettel had a brake failure, then Perez took his front wing off.
' A woman was arrested and held in a police cell for six hours after pruning overhanging branches from a neighbour’s tree.
Karen Gaynor was detained, charged with criminal damage and spent seven months on bail after prosecutors decided she had cut the conifer back too much, in a boundary dispute with her neighbour.
Rotherham Magistrates’ Court took just 15 minutes to clear the 53-year-old mother of two after instead deciding she had acted with good intentions.
Speaking after her trial, she said she was “disgusted” at her treatment by the police and council.
Ms Gaynor said: "I'm delighted and relieved with the result but disgusted at how I have been treated."
She added that after the child sex abuse scandal which has struck Rotherham in recent months, “to think that the police and council have the time, money and resources to waste on such a silly thing as a tree, is disgusting." '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/11544322/Woman-arrested-held-in-cell-for-six-hours-and-put-on-trial-for-over-pruning-tree.html
Three of them ...
"For what it’s worth, I still don’t expect Labour to be wiped out in Scotland to the extent that Ashcroft’s polls suggest. Those campaigning for Scottish Labour on the ground – hardened by a gruelling independence campaign – believe that seats like Alexander’s and Murphy’s will still be held. Certainly they remain more in play than this poll would suggest. "
So Brown in the cabinet is probably a reasonable guess.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/midlothian/winning-party
And presumably Hannan couldn't continue to be an MEP if he was a member of the House of Lords and a member of government.
Jo Swinson's private polling may have been well dodgy, but incumbency and a bit of tactical unionist voting makes her worth a punt at 5-1.
I've taken the max at Coral (£25) on this and have succesfully covered the gap in my book after taking an atrocious 1-2 on Labour there last year (And SNP 50-1)
http://www.thenational.scot/cartoon/the-strip-april-13.3
UKIP because of the timing. Midnight makes no sense for a news release because everyone is asleep, and it is too late for the first editions.
It is too late for the first editions. That, I think, is the key. Midnight is when newspapers publish their own scoops -- because if they ran it in their first edition, all the other papers can nick it for their own later editions. Which party has just taken a million quid from a newspaper proprietor? UKIP. QED.
http://www.ukip.org/ukip_manifesto_summary I'm not reading a 72 page manifesto.
But just from skimming it:
1: A five year moratorium on unskilled migration (at a time we're nearing full employment).
2: Leaving the EU (the proposed question on the referendum is absurdly biased)
3: Opposing TTIP (free trade agreement with the USA).
To start with.
Perhaps what you are hearing maybe related to this:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-17/greek-creditors-search-for-scenarios-to-prevent-euro-exit?cmpid=twtr1
But basically the problem is pension cuts and tax increases that the EU is demanding. Even the slightest EU demand cannot probably pass the greek parliament much less the current demands.
But Raik, Hami and the Red Bull should get a penalty for what they did in the pit lane, again IMHO. ;-)
But you can guarantee that the opposite would happen, given my track record and deciphering on-track incidents.