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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: June 13th 2013

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,127
    Sean_F said:

    FPT, so if the OECD is correct, the net benefit from mass immigration is 0.46% of GDP! Wow! The UK economy would really grind to halt without it. We'd be, oh, £2 a week worse off per head.

    Although the practical effects of immigration are no the same for everyone.

    Those with a vested interest in having downward pressure on wages and upward pressure on house prices gain many times greater than £2 per week.

    Those who lose out from those effects are financially penalised by immigration.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,359
    DavidL said:

    tim said:

    @DavidL

    Correct.
    And don't forget who the big beneficiaries of Osbornes housing bubble policy will be, while people under thirty pay the price

    The policy you complain about is designed to get first time buyers onto the housing ladder and is therefore a small step in the right direction.

    But something needs to be done about zero hour employment contracts, the casualisation of work, the quality of modern apprenticeships, the abuses of unpaid internships and the way that necessary reforms of social security are going to disproportionately impact on the young. They are getting hard done by, not just in this country but across Europe.
    DavidL, as a matter of interest, how do you reconcile your views on these employment rights, benefits and social fairness - all of which I normally hear from the non-Blairite left of the Labour Party, especially the trade unions - with unwavering support for the Conservative Party? I'm honestly not trying to needle you, and I'm not saying that they should make you vote Labour, since I'd agree that Labour's policies on these issues, like everything else, are at present at best visible in outline. But I'd have thought your concerns would make you non-aligned and open to change of allegiance?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061
    edited June 2013
    tim said:

    @Josias.

    What's the coverage since the digital switchover?

    People still choose BBC News by a massive margin among those who have both (which is a vast majority

    I've no idea what the coverage is now, although I used to have access to the figures six years ago (*). It does not look as though the figures for individual MUXes are published on the web, at least as far as I can find.

    (For anyone geeky enough the Freeview multiplex list can be found at http://www.a516digital.com/2013/03/uk-terrestrial-tv-multiplex-capacity.html )

    You also have no idea about what a 'vast majority' is. Look at the figures on BARB for BBC News 24 and Sky News, the direct competitor channels. More view BBC News, but hardly a 'vast majority'. For instance:
    Channel Average daily reach Weekly reach
    BBC News 3,461 9,300
    Sky News 2,100 5,638
    (I hope the table works. From http://www.barb.co.uk/viewing/weekly-total-viewing-summary )

    If you include BBC News on other BBC channels, then you are no doing a like-by-like comparison, and are showing the exact problem.

    (*) A few years ago Mrs J spent a wonderful (ahem) week with some Samsung engineers travelling around Spain in the back of a van testing signal reception on one of our chips. We did similar things here in the UK, for which we needed full information on the TV and radio transmitters.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,127

    Thanks for another interesting write-up, Mr. Hayfield.

    Two areas I know - Watlington (on the Fen Rivers Way) near where I once met a girlfriend for the first time, and Woolston which I knew very well when I lived nearby. Woolston was dominated by a now-closed shipyard - see my profile pic of the recently-built HMS Severn there in 2002, just before the yard sadly closed.

    It does look as though the Lib Dem performance will be interesting this evening.

    Are you saying that a British shipyard closed soon after 2002 ?

    You must be wrong.

    Don't you know that Fatcha shut all the shipyards in the 1980s ?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Just catching up on FPT and sorry to read that @Socrates has decided to spend his time elsewhere after relentless name-calling/trolling.

    I think Fitalass made the point well last night - there comes a point when there isn't enough meat in the sandwich and the small number of regular posters/going round in the same circles day in day out isn't very appetising.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    edited June 2013
    Apparently politicians have united (well, a few) to call for greater internet monitoring powers for the Establishment:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22891845

    Hmm. I do have some concerns about this sort of thing. Secret services can't opt out of spying on stuff that's on the internet, but the fact that so many of us use it and there's one internet means there would seem to be far more risk of innocent people getting spied on than by, say, tapping someone's phone or keeping their home under surveillance.

    There's also the data issue, namely there'd be bloody tons of it. Collecting it, storing it and not having it being stolen, lost or flogged off would be tricky.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @NickPalmer

    " it's a by-product of the pernicious circular view that because older people vote more, their interests have to come first. "

    Well said, Sir.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    On a lighter note, someone's trying to blame men for the menopause:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-22886668
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    tim said:

    @Josias.

    What's the coverage since the digital switchover?

    People still choose BBC News by a massive margin among those who have both (which is a vast majority

    I've no idea what the coverage is now, although I used to have access to the figures six years ago (*). It does not look as though the figures for individual MUXes are published on the web, at least as far as I can find.

    (For anyone geeky enough the Freeview multiplex list can be found at http://www.a516digital.com/2013/03/uk-terrestrial-tv-multiplex-capacity.html )

    You also have no idea about what a 'vast majority' is. Look at the figures on BARB for BBC News 24 and Sky News, the direct competitor channels. More view BBC News, but hardly a 'vast majority'. For instance:
    Channel Average daily reach Weekly reach
    BBC News 3,461 9,300
    Sky News 2,100 5,638
    (I hope the table works. From http://www.barb.co.uk/viewing/weekly-total-viewing-summary )

    If you include BBC News on other BBC channels, then you are no doing a like-by-like comparison, and are showing the exact problem.

    (*) A few years ago Mrs J spent a wonderful (ahem) week with some Samsung engineers travelling around Spain in the back of a van testing signal reception on one of our chips. We did similar things here in the UK, for which we needed full information on the TV and radio transmitters.
    From today's Times

    "The BBC, after all, is far and away Britain’s largest media organisation. By its own figures it provides 74 per cent of all television news hours in this country; some way above the figure that Ms Harman feels is acceptable. Last year a study by Enders Research found that the BBC accounted for 47 per cent of all the minutes of news that Britain consumes each day, by any medium." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/leaders/article3790840.ece
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,957

    DavidL said:

    Something that puts the recent small fall of pensioner income into perspective: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22890906

    "The IFS said while older people had become richer on average since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007/08, younger people had become poorer."

    This is the context in which the protection of pensioners' benefits has to be looked at. In this Parliament the government committed itself to protecting these benefits but this cannot continue. Although it hurt me personally I approved of the removal of CB from HRT but the same logic applies to winter fuel allowances, TV licences, additional personal allowances and the distortions caused by NI.

    As someone in my 50s with children I see that this recession has hurt a younger generation most. They are being loaded with debt and getting on the housing ladder is incredibly difficult compared with what it was 30 years ago. Regular work is hard to come by, employment rights seem to be something of a joke, they are kept less than busy with pointless education courses that they know are a joke and basically seem to have to mark far more time than my generation did before they can get going with life.

    Our politicians still have this image of the poor pensioner struggling to keep warm. Everyone else sees many examples living around them enjoying a golden age of early retirment and regular holidays, something they know will not exist in that way when they get to the ever later retirement age themselves.

    This so called "triumph of social policy" has gone too far. If we don't want our youth to be alienated we need to start giving them more attention. What politicians will be brave enough?

    Very good post. I'm 63, I was the author of the TV licences over 75 proposal, but I agree with you. There is a definite suggestion out there that if you're young, life is tough, there's nothing to be done about it, and politics is for older people. Employment? Not a lot of it about, sorry mate. Housing? Got to protect the green belt. University? Certainly, here's your £20,000 loan agrement. Employment rights? An old-fashioned concept getting in the way of efficiency. Crime? Yes, sonny, we've got our eye on YOU.

    We seem to have collectively shrugged off the riots as a mysterious outbreak of criminality, but it's hard to tell young people with a straight face that the political world is really paying attention to them. I do know some people under 30 who are interested in politics: they are almost without exception either idealists who want to save the world or careerists who want to be PM; few if any are interested because they feel Government policy will help their own lives. And I really do not think this is the fault of or limited to any one party - it's a by-product of the pernicious circular view that because older people vote more, their interests have to come first.

    When a huge block feels it has no meaningful stake in society, the sustainability of that society comes under serious threat. The income, quality of life and opportunity gaps opening up in the UK and elsewhere will have serious consequences for all of us in the end, not just the young. It's in all our interests, top rate tax payers included, to ensure that the majority gets a decent share of the vast amounts of wealth that are created here. I don't know how it should be done; but I'd love to see the beginnings of a discussion about it among our political parties.

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,127

    DavidL said:

    tim said:

    @DavidL

    Correct.
    And don't forget who the big beneficiaries of Osbornes housing bubble policy will be, while people under thirty pay the price

    The policy you complain about is designed to get first time buyers onto the housing ladder and is therefore a small step in the right direction.

    But something needs to be done about zero hour employment contracts, the casualisation of work, the quality of modern apprenticeships, the abuses of unpaid internships and the way that necessary reforms of social security are going to disproportionately impact on the young. They are getting hard done by, not just in this country but across Europe.
    DavidL, as a matter of interest, how do you reconcile your views on these employment rights, benefits and social fairness - all of which I normally hear from the non-Blairite left of the Labour Party, especially the trade unions - with unwavering support for the Conservative Party? I'm honestly not trying to needle you, and I'm not saying that they should make you vote Labour, since I'd agree that Labour's policies on these issues, like everything else, are at present at best visible in outline. But I'd have thought your concerns would make you non-aligned and open to change of allegiance?
    If I may butt in I'd say those things are good options for many people if they want them and they have the ability to chose.

    The problem is that globalisation has seen a shift of economic control and wealth to the rich and powerful.

    So that they have the ability to impose such employment measures on individuals rather than individuals chosing to take them.

    Personally I don't see any plans by Labour to mitigate the effects of globalisation, for many middle class leftists they seem to be something to be rejoiced in as long as they don't personally suffer.


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    The authorities have had this capability for years.
    A mate of mine used to be a security guard at one of the major mobile networks. There was a set of rooms that were only accessible to MOD staff.
    IMV this is all a prelude to making the data available to all and sundry a la RIPA.

    Apparently politicians have united (well, a few) to call for greater internet monitoring powers for the Establishment:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22891845

    Hmm. I do have some concerns about this sort of thing. Secret services can't opt out of spying on stuff that's on the internet, but the fact that so many of us use it and there's one internet means there would seem to be far more risk of innocent people getting spied on than by, say, tapping someone's phone or keeping their home under surveillance.

    There's also the data issue, namely there'd be bloody tons of it. Collecting it, storing it and not having it being stolen, lost or flogged off would be tricky.

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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,127
    Regarding tim's obsession with British retirees living in Spain.

    I'm curious as to how the Spanish view them. Are there calls for future retirees to be limited for example ?

    Or are they viewed as a source of investment and income for Spain ?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,061

    Thanks for another interesting write-up, Mr. Hayfield.

    Two areas I know - Watlington (on the Fen Rivers Way) near where I once met a girlfriend for the first time, and Woolston which I knew very well when I lived nearby. Woolston was dominated by a now-closed shipyard - see my profile pic of the recently-built HMS Severn there in 2002, just before the yard sadly closed.

    It does look as though the Lib Dem performance will be interesting this evening.

    Are you saying that a British shipyard closed soon after 2002 ?

    You must be wrong.

    Don't you know that Fatcha shut all the shipyards in the 1980s ?
    It was sad to go back five years later to see the VT buildings being demolished. The work - and many of the workers - were transferred to Portsmouth Dockyard. The main problem was that the Itchen was too narrow at the shipyard for large ships to be built and launched. In reality, due to cutbacks we were not building enough small naval ships, so it made sense to move operations to a larger base with more estuarine and land space. The fact the Woolston land was valuable might also have had an effect.

    I love that area, but it had a totally different feel when the shipyard was open. Now it will be mostly a residential development, as on the other side of the river.

    http://m.dailyecho.co.uk/news/9843505.Major_development_underway_at_VT_site/
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    dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-mod-defence-deal-warning-1-2966493

    I used to live behind that ship :) (just to the right of the tower blocks).

    I wonder how many people are convinced by these kinds of stories. Can't particularly see it being int the interests of rUK to refuse to deal with scotland, impoverish everyone and cause a rush of Scottish refugees to England...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,368

    DavidL said:

    tim said:

    @DavidL

    Correct.
    And don't forget who the big beneficiaries of Osbornes housing bubble policy will be, while people under thirty pay the price

    The policy you complain about is designed to get first time buyers onto the housing ladder and is therefore a small step in the right direction.

    But something needs to be done about zero hour employment contracts, the casualisation of work, the quality of modern apprenticeships, the abuses of unpaid internships and the way that necessary reforms of social security are going to disproportionately impact on the young. They are getting hard done by, not just in this country but across Europe.
    DavidL, as a matter of interest, how do you reconcile your views on these employment rights, benefits and social fairness - all of which I normally hear from the non-Blairite left of the Labour Party, especially the trade unions - with unwavering support for the Conservative Party? I'm honestly not trying to needle you, and I'm not saying that they should make you vote Labour, since I'd agree that Labour's policies on these issues, like everything else, are at present at best visible in outline. But I'd have thought your concerns would make you non-aligned and open to change of allegiance?
    It's a fair question Nick. I strongly support the government's stance on macro-economic questions and I recognise the need for international competitiveness. What I don't like is that so much of the need for that competitiveness falls on a particular part of the population, the lower skilled and the young.

    I agree with a lot that Southam says on here about the need to invest in our young and provide them with the sort of training that Germany seems to supply to its kids rather than the absurd college courses my poor wife has to teach.

    I will probably never forgive Gordon Brown for what he did to this country or, with the greatest of respect, those who stood silently with him and allowed him to do it. But whilst I find the tories, particularly Cameroons who are more socially liberal, most to my taste I will never agree with any party's whole agenda.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Pubgoer, there's a significant difference between looking at an individual's or group's online activities and requiring information for two years to be gathered and stored from everyone's online activities.
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    PBModeratorPBModerator Posts: 661
    new thread
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Boris' monthly phone-in on LBC is on at 0900 http://ukrp.musicradio.com/lbc973/live?rpMsp=3
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-mod-defence-deal-warning-1-2966493

    I used to live behind that ship :) (just to the right of the tower blocks).

    I wonder how many people are convinced by these kinds of stories. Can't particularly see it being int the interests of rUK to refuse to deal with scotland, impoverish everyone and cause a rush of Scottish refugees to England...

    But independent Scotland won't be part of the EU and therefore free movement of people will not apply. New Hadrian's wall anyone?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Harry Hayfield @HarryHayfield
    #Woolston on #Southampton: #Lab 864 (32%), #UKIP 731 (27%), #Con 704 (26%), #TUSC 136 (5%). #LibDem 120 (5%), #Green 107 (4%) #Lab HOLD
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    fitalass said:

    AndyJS said:

    I thought someone said there would only be one pro-independence panelist tonight?

    As with the current polls, the parties in favour of Independence are in the minority. But despite this being the case, they expect to get equal billing and representation and whinge like mad if they don't. So enjoy the hypocrisy of the SNP then bitching about the democratically elected Conservative party currently in Government at Westminster getting so much airtime in Scotland.

    Only a Tory could come out with claptrap like that. Good to see the London Regional Tories got a severe pasting on QT last night , even 16 & 17 yera olds know they are sh***
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