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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: June 13th 2013
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: June 13th 2013
Liversedge and Gomersal on Kirklees (Con Defence)
Last Local Elections (2012): Lab 32, Con 18, Lib Dem 10, Green 5, Others 4 (No Overall Control, Lab short by 3)
Ward Results in current electoral cycle
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Comments
Good gracious! Where did you obtain Clegg's secret election campaign strategy for 2015?
Thanks to Mr. Hayfield for works on the locals.
It's a great shame to see Mr. Socrates leaving the site. Hopefully I'll see him about on Twitter (I'm MorrisF1 there).
Sad to see Socrates leave PB
You might have missed his message but he says he'll be back so it's scarcely any different to the other posters who said virtually the same then came then came back unsurprisingly quicky. Of which there are now quite a few.
For that matter posters like Hunchman and Ave it appear and disappear for long stretches at will as do quite a few other posters. The difference is most of them don't usually announce a self-imposed temporary absence so ostentatiously.
Two areas I know - Watlington (on the Fen Rivers Way) near where I once met a girlfriend for the first time, and Woolston which I knew very well when I lived nearby. Woolston was dominated by a now-closed shipyard - see my profile pic of the recently-built HMS Severn there in 2002, just before the yard sadly closed.
It does look as though the Lib Dem performance will be interesting this evening.
And I liked reading the dialogue between him and Tim.
Sad to see him go.
Has Ave it been on here since Watford's implosion in football's most valuable game? He still owes me a pint, bless him!
And Socrates will be back before you know it.
The 2008 Lib Dem percentages in 2008 in the Kirklees ward was 6% and in the Southampton ward 12% rather closer to the 2011/2012 figures than the GE turnout year of 2010 .
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHBJLWkxVDlsdHZXMnFTQjNDUEE2MGc#gid=0
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/82801/thread
1. Many many leave ostentatiously (seant), only to return a few weeks later.
2. There has been much abuse from many. Seant had called people liars, a pretty harsh insult, especially as it was usually incorrect, on numerous occasions.
That this programme is even going ahead is an absolute disgrace.
1. The political class like to pretend they support mass immigration for cost/benefit reasons but they cover up the truth about costs like thousands of children being forced into prostitution. Things like that prove they - or their lobbyists - actively want unlimited mass immigration and they're prepared to lie about the costs and if they're prepared to lie about the costs they'd be prepared to lie about the benefits as well.
2. One of the reasons for the explosion in child sexual exploitation in this country over the last twelve or so years is the explosion in the black economy. Part of the demand for cheap/free prostitution comes from all the men working illegally and sending their money home. As no-one knows how many there are and what all the effects are - apart from the obvious ones like youth unemployment - none of the stats on cost/benefit are going to be accurate anyway.
Farrage being on QT in Scotland will do more for the Independence movement than Patrick Harvie ever would.
In principle she's not in favour of either independence or the status quo - she's a federalist, or less ideally a devo maxer. She embodies the huge folly that Cameron has potentially been guilty of, because it sounds like she's not doing what devo max supporters were 'supposed' to do when their preferred option was taken off the ballot paper.
Chances are Rupert will be extremely generous as he might just be familiar with how sensationally 'tell all' divorce stories go down in the tabloids.
edit: Not meant as a dig btw.
There is - Angus Robertson. As already stated, Riddoch is a devo max supporter who may vote Yes as the next best option.
The parties in favour of independence have THE MAJORITY both in the Scottish Parliament, and in the list vote in the most recent opinion poll. We didn't demand that this majority be reflected on the Question Time panel tonight, Fitalass. We merely suggested that a four-to-one imbalance in the other direction was a touch...how can I put this...bloody outrageous.
Just a profoundly immoral one.
A performance from Ronnie Scott's in December 1982, (audio only with photos):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn-ngKhqV2g
I was particularly interested because at the last GE and Holyrood elections none of my three children were old enough to vote, but all three of them will be eligible to vote in the Indy Ref next year. By then they will have only known an SNP administration at Holyrood for the last seven years. My youngest lad is currently part of the last lot of children who have gone through their schooling under the old curriculum, next year we see the first national exams under the new curriculum for excellence.
They have all experienced their schooling and further education under this current administration, and have now become well acquainted with the system of free tuition fees and it impacts on further education opportunities for Scottish children at Scottish Universities.
And they also know how the new curriculum for excellence has been greeted by teachers and parents alike.
They have seen how the SNP has impacted on their every day life with their selective banning. Yep, the SNP want you to vote in a monumental decision about Independence, but they made you wait until you were 18 to be able to buy a packet of fags. They even wanted to bring in a new age limit of 21 before you can buy alcohol. Just this week my son told me that his 22 year old friend collected his brother from a sporting event and nipped into Tesco's for his parents to buy some groceries on the way home. This shopping list included one bottle of nice white wine on a special deal, they refused to serve him this.
I suspect for young people in particular in Scotland, this Indy Referendum won't just be about the issue of breaking up the UK. It will also be about growing up under the increasingly nannying influence of the SNP Government who are now really pushing nationalism and being Scottish right down our throats, whereas before it had been a far more natural home grown affair. Throw in the way that the SNP viewed what happened to Farage when he last visited Scotland vs their outrage over the make up of a BBC programme's guest panel, and you can see just how ridiculous their behaviour is becoming.
I suspect it won't be about that at all. It'll be about what's on the ballot paper - independence.
Do you support votes at 16, or not?
Almost as entertaining as this.
#indyref http://pic.twitter.com/ojJBHpPvgN
I support the SNP partly because it's a much more libertarian party than Labour. Everything's relative of course, but I'm quite comfortable with the party. If I lived in England I'd have a problem, because the only options on the "left" are authoritarian Labour, or fringe parties.
And it never occurred to you that it was a bit rich for you to talk about SNP inconsistency, when you want young people to be able to buy cigarettes, but not to have the most basic right of citizenship?
"But I am going to enjoy the delicious irony of the SNP being skewered by the very demographic they thought would be most favourable to Independence in this way."
The irony I anticipate finding most flavoursome is you recalling those words in eighteen months' time. Whatever the outcome of the referendum, I confidently expect young people to be among the groups proportionately most favourable for Yes.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jun/13/if-britain-had-joined-the-euro
Almost two years later the markets are up a fair bit.
If there isn't a crash this summer are you going to keep coming on here predicting that a crash is about to happen?
If you do this continually for the next 20 years then of course you will probably be right eventually. But it gets very boring. A stopped clock is right twice a day.
Lab 864 UKIP 741 Con 704 TUSC 136 LD 120 Green 107
A crap result for Labour, very good for UKIP, decent for Con and TUSC, bad for LD.
I think the other 2 count tomorrow
And Tesco were always quite capable of behaving like arseholes regardeless of the influence of the SNP
Somehow can't see "Vote for the continuation of the libertarian UK" gaining much traction as a meme (for want of a better word) to be honest
Bannings are fairly random around here (the words "pure comedy gold" get you banned, calling someone a member of the Ku Klux Klan doesn't), so who knows. I didn't see the post in question, so I've no idea if Socrates has a point, or is just indulging in some overly-theatrical Tim-bashing (was it Tim?).
Better watch that Kipper councillor doesn't steal your kipper logo.
It's the effect of UKIP gaining support all over England to a greater than lesser degree.
So as a point of order, I really do think that it says something about posters on this site who consistently criticise others for not shutting up and putting up it with it while ignoring the actually bad behaviour of someone who consistently targets and smears specific posters who disagrees with them. Especially when in the past on PB, one of the biggest successes was the need for such light touch moderation because the community essentially policed itself and as a cross party collective wouldn't tolerate this kind of behaviour.
You really need to work out just how small the lunch box needs to get before there ain't enough sandwiches, never mind meat in the middle, to feed an interesting wide ranging political debate which then produces some interesting and varied betting opportunities. So for those that far too easily dismiss the contributions of the non betting posters on this site, just remember that they too played their part in helping to build up the profile of this site, which in turn helped it become the success it has become as part of the political narrative in the media. You don't have to be a punter here to see your points picked up and then given further currency elsewhere, which again does tend to influence the political markets.
What was once a thriving community where a large and diverse group of posters engaged in mainly polite, robust and good natured debate on many topics, has now turned into a closed shop with a little clique talking amongst themselves about the same topics day in and day out. PB has lost its mojo right now, lets talk more about how we get that back instead of assuming that the last person who left will be back in quick time. And because, frankly, that has no longer been the case of late.
The kippers did not win in Eastleigh. That's not an opinion it's a fact.
PB tories call their insults 'robust debate' while if they get back what they dish it out it's immediately 'smears' 'accusations' or some such other passive aggressive bollocks. cockroach is of course a term of endearment and not blatant proof of hypocrisy.
The idea that the PB tories are the helpless oppressed victims on this site is frankly one of the most hilariously dumb fantasies you could possibly imagine.
That is a crap result.
The LDs were down 3.6% since 2012.
Apparently Harman wants a 15% media market share cap. Top plan.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22899952
Which will skew the market even more as there are a limited umber of people and companies who can / would want to own a media organisation. Given the plethora of scandals surrounding the BBC, I'm not sure that their market dominance (especially in the news) is warranted.
The 'fit and proper person' test is also utterly bogus and rife for political mischief.
"The IFS said while older people had become richer on average since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007/08, younger people had become poorer."
This is the context in which the protection of pensioners' benefits has to be looked at. In this Parliament the government committed itself to protecting these benefits but this cannot continue. Although it hurt me personally I approved of the removal of CB from HRT but the same logic applies to winter fuel allowances, TV licences, additional personal allowances and the distortions caused by NI.
As someone in my 50s with children I see that this recession has hurt a younger generation most. They are being loaded with debt and getting on the housing ladder is incredibly difficult compared with what it was 30 years ago. Regular work is hard to come by, employment rights seem to be something of a joke, they are kept less than busy with pointless education courses that they know are a joke and basically seem to have to mark far more time than my generation did before they can get going with life.
Our politicians still have this image of the poor pensioner struggling to keep warm. Everyone else sees many examples living around them enjoying a golden age of early retirment and regular holidays, something they know will not exist in that way when they get to the ever later retirement age themselves.
This so called "triumph of social policy" has gone too far. If we don't want our youth to be alienated we need to start giving them more attention. What politicians will be brave enough?
She wouldn't have said it if it applied to the BBC as well. It should though.
It's hard to watch it when you cannot get reception.
And the amount of income is irrelevant - what matters is market share.
I'm a fan of the BBC. But the recent scandals have been shocking and shown a terrible culture that exists within the organisation.
Harman full of shit as usual. Why's it a monopoly (or an overly mighty firm, at least) if it's a private company that is successful and people choose to support, but it isn't when it's a public sector organisation about four times larger which people are obliged through taxation to support?
It's like the left crying out for a cap on donations, except the unions, or some theists who use the argument of First Cause (Teleological, is it?) to insist that because everything must have a cause God must be the cause of the Universe [when asked 'what caused God?' they reply that he's an exception to their own rule].
But something needs to be done about zero hour employment contracts, the casualisation of work, the quality of modern apprenticeships, the abuses of unpaid internships and the way that necessary reforms of social security are going to disproportionately impact on the young. They are getting hard done by, not just in this country but across Europe.
We seem to have collectively shrugged off the riots as a mysterious outbreak of criminality, but it's hard to tell young people with a straight face that the political world is really paying attention to them. I do know some people under 30 who are interested in politics: they are almost without exception either idealists who want to save the world or careerists who want to be PM; few if any are interested because they feel Government policy will help their own lives. And I really do not think this is the fault of or limited to any one party - it's a by-product of the pernicious circular view that because older people vote more, their interests have to come first.