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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My favourite GE15 spread bet: That there’ll be a CON margin on seats of fewer than 12

The chart shows the trend on the Sporting Index commons seats spread market over the past few months and as can be seen the Tories have opened a double digit lead which has remained for some weeks. Even yesterday’s poor polls for the Tories did not have much impact.

Read the full story here

Tim_B

First?

Scrapheap_as_was

Is this a trading strategy or intended to run until may 8?

Otherwise rip Ritchie benauld. A true cricket legend.

felix

RE yesterday's 'pollergasm' maybe there should be an automatic time delay on post and Twitter responses of say 24 hours. It would save vast quantities of egg on the faces of so many of the Westminster village idiots.

SimonStClare

Morning all.

Spread betting is certainly not a sport for the fainthearted, or those with short pockets - However, good luck to all those brave enough to try.

felix

I see the Guardian online front pages have no mention of any opinion polls yesterday

CarlottaVance

Grauniad claim an exclusive:

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/apr/10/exclusive-hillary-clinton-to-launch-presidential-campaign-sunday-en-route-to-iowa-source

felix

felix said:

I see the Guardian online front pages have no mention of any opinion polls yesterday

Apologies - just spotted it - much toned down though.

Indigo

Epic article in the Thanet Gazette.

But Zebediah Enoch Ezekiel Boaleris not so pleased.

The controversial candidate says he stands for “ the separation of Thanet from the Imperialist British and the establishment of an Afro-Thanetian Zaliphate run according to Boa'lia law,” and the eradication of Broadstairs,.

In response to news of Al Murray’s intentions Zebediah said: “I personally think he is making a mockery of South Thanet and democracy. We have no time for spoof parties.”

http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/Al-Murray-s-Thanet-South-election-fight-slammed/story-25855604-detail/story.html

Sean_F

Panelbase's huge swing to Labour was the shocker. Labour leads of 3% with TNS and 4% with Survation are nothing unusual.

Alanbrooke

Sean_F said:

Panelbase's huge swing to Labour was the shocker. Labour leads of 3% with TNS and 4% with Survation are nothing unusual.

Panelbase do tend to produce some exciting results. Their claim to fame is mostly based on calling the 2011 Holyrood elections right, since then they have been less notable.

OblitusSumMe

Given that the Conservatives start fifty seats ahead of Labour, and that Labour are likely to lose most of their Scottish seats, I fear that you have underestimated your downside risk.

Alanbrooke

Full NI election list.

Conservatives standing in 16 seats including having NI's first Sikh candidate. UKIP standing in 10.

Labour not fielding anyone as they believe sectarian politics is the best option for Paddies.

Progressive.


http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/10/one-all-male-constituency-24-candidates-are-female-3-unionist-parties-running-all-male-candidates-ge2015/

peter_from_putney

Mike Smithson in his thread header confidently asserts that:
" What’s the most you can lose and in this case I can’t envisage the circumstances in which the Tories are more than 30 seats ahead – in which case my loss would be 18 units."

That's interesting because just three days ago JackW's latest ARSE projection had the Tories winning 312 seats with Labour trailing on 246 seats, a hefty 66 seats behind.

Were Jack to be proved correct, and using OGH's own example of £20 per seat (not his actual bet he assures us, without indicating whether it was more or less than this figure), this would result in losses of a whopping great £1080, i.e (66-12) x £20.

One or other of these two gentleman appears likely to be proved very, very wrong. In pugilistic terms, this seems certain to be the contest for the World Heavyweight Championship of the forthcoming General Election.

I enjoy the occasional testosterone-fuelled spread bet, but this one wouldn't be for me.

noisywinter

Hmmm tories drifted down a bit back to 1.6 most seats. Could have done with Yougov showing a similar trend

Still I'm sure they will drift out towards evens at some point.

chestnut

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W6836w3tablesv2.pdf

Panelbase tables.

Another internet pollster where nearly 40% of their panel claim to have watched most or all of the TV debates.

Millsy

Ooh cost of living stuff from the Tories (rail fares). Need much more of that sort of thing to shore up support from workers

MikeSmithson

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

Panelbase's huge swing to Labour was the shocker. Labour leads of 3% with TNS and 4% with Survation are nothing unusual.

Panelbase do tend to produce some exciting results. Their claim to fame is mostly based on calling the 2011 Holyrood elections right, since then they have been less notable.

Panelbase was one of the top pollsters at the IndyRef alongside Ipsos-MORI and Survation.

The firm's GB polling is new and in common with many pollster is untested in a general election.

PeterC

peter_from_putney said:

Mike Smithson in his thread header confidently asserts that:
" What’s the most you can lose and in this case I can’t envisage the circumstances in which the Tories are more than 30 seats ahead – in which case my loss would be 18 units."

That's interesting because just three days ago JackW's latest ARSE projection had the Tories winning 312 seats with Labour trailing on 246 seats, a hefty 66 seats behind.

Were Jack to be proved correct, and using OGH's own example of £20 per seat (not his actual bet he assures us, without indicating whether it was more or less than this figure), this would result in losses of a whopping great £1080, i.e (66-12) x £20.

One or other of these two gentleman appears likely to be proved very, very wrong. In pugilistic terms, this seems certain to be the contest for the World Heavyweight Championship of the forthcoming General Election.

I enjoy the occasional testosterone-fuelled spread bet, but this one wouldn't be for me.

I agree. This is potentially a very high risk bet as the seat difference could become a great deal more volatile than it has been over the past few weeks. The main point is to use a stop loss and not to go into the election night without a significant profit buffer.

peter_from_putney

noisywinter (Yesterday):
"I wish the markets hadn't closed and I could cash out my equities

I seriously think there's gonna be a very red ed day on the markets tomorow"

Well, FWIW a few minutes ago, IG Index had the FTSE 100 Index closing up by around 25 points today at 7041. Of course they could be proved wrong!

Purseybear

Great to see a proper betting thread.

Hope everyones calmer after such an exciting day. More than ever I think we need to wait to next week. I'm in on quite a few markets right now but I'm holding back from further bets til the post easter shakedown. This weeks polls could be totally wrong & I say that from betting pov.

We've also got the manifestos to come Monday & Tuesday tho' not convinced they will move the markets much. The rail fare freeze is a clever policy but wonder if they leaked it after such a bad day?

Sean_F

chestnut said:

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W6836w3tablesv2.pdf

Panelbase tables.

Another internet pollster where nearly 40% of their panel claim to have watched most or all of the TV debates.

Oddly, they rated Cameron above Milliband in the debate, but stll gave a big shift to Labour. Perhaps it's just one of those strange results you get from time to time.

richardDodd

A five year freeze on rail fares..Winner..

SMukesh

Tories seem to be making a lot of unfunded pledges,safe in the knowledge they aren't coming back?

Purseybear

chestnut said:

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W6836w3tablesv2.pdf

Panelbase tables.

Another internet pollster where nearly 40% of their panel claim to have watched most or all of the TV debates.

Yeah so tear it up.

noisywinter

peter_from_putney said:

noisywinter (Yesterday):
"I wish the markets hadn't closed and I could cash out my equities

I seriously think there's gonna be a very red ed day on the markets tomorow"

Well, FWIW a few minutes ago, IG Index had the FTSE 100 Index closing up by around 25 points today at 7041. Of course they could be proved wrong!

Yep markets in total denial- its gonna be interesting if Labour win. I will take the opportunity to significantly liquidate and maybe a cheeky short on the Sterling and the FTSE

Purseybear

OblitusSumMe said:

Given that the Conservatives start fifty seats ahead of Labour, and that Labour are likely to lose most of their Scottish seats, I fear that you have underestimated your downside risk.

Yeah big risks in this one. What I don't like about it are the elements of unknown. It's not just how you think Cons will do its Cons, Lab, SNP, LD, UKIP, PLAID all in the mix. Too many variables for my liking. Pinning a tail on a donkey but good luck to Mr Smithson & hope he makes money, providing I don't lose in the process.

alex.

"Conservatives to "freeze" rail fares for five years.

Question for supporters of the Govt's Local Government policies. Why is it for Private Sector providers of Public services a "freeze" is always actually an inflationary increase, and it is not considered reasonable for them to make below inflationary rises on the back of efficiencies and increased passenger numbers (even though doing these things are supposed to be Private Sector strengths on the back of increased capacity to invest), but in local Govt land ,inflation is not believed to exist (even though much of their services are delivered by Private Sector contractors expecting inflationary increases every year...)

OblitusSumMe

PeterC said:

peter_from_putney said:

Mike Smithson in his thread header confidently asserts that:
" What’s the most you can lose and in this case I can’t envisage the circumstances in which the Tories are more than 30 seats ahead – in which case my loss would be 18 units."

That's interesting because just three days ago JackW's latest ARSE projection had the Tories winning 312 seats with Labour trailing on 246 seats, a hefty 66 seats behind.

Were Jack to be proved correct, and using OGH's own example of £20 per seat (not his actual bet he assures us, without indicating whether it was more or less than this figure), this would result in losses of a whopping great £1080, i.e (66-12) x £20.

One or other of these two gentleman appears likely to be proved very, very wrong. In pugilistic terms, this seems certain to be the contest for the World Heavyweight Championship of the forthcoming General Election.

I enjoy the occasional testosterone-fuelled spread bet, but this one wouldn't be for me.

I agree. This is potentially a very high risk bet as the seat difference could become a great deal more volatile than it has been over the past few weeks. The main point is to use a stop loss and not to go into the election night without a significant profit buffer.

On the volatility it's worth pointing out that potential gains and losses on this spread bet are twice those available from buying or selling Labour seats, because each seat won or lost from the Tories counts double. So if you'd normally stake ten pounds on the seat spreads it would make sense to stake five pounds on this spread.

Alistair

FTPT

As a point of order @antifrank I don't think that @calum m posted the 125/1 odds on 0-5 SLab seats until after it had been cut and I had posted about getting 40/1 on it.

richardDodd

Smukesh Labour have committed the tax on Bankers Bonus,s ten times...at least...

foxinsoxuk

noisywinter said:

peter_from_putney said:

noisywinter (Yesterday):
"I wish the markets hadn't closed and I could cash out my equities

I seriously think there's gonna be a very red ed day on the markets tomorow"

Well, FWIW a few minutes ago, IG Index had the FTSE 100 Index closing up by around 25 points today at 7041. Of course they could be proved wrong!

Yep markets in total denial- its gonna be interesting if Labour win. I will take the opportunity to significantly liquidate and maybe a cheeky short on the Sterling and the FTSE

I don't think so, though quite likely to get a bit more volatile as the election day approaches. The market bottomed out in early 2009 and has been on an upward trend since. The uncertainty over the coalition did not make much difference in May 2010.

The market may peak soon (it is at record highs) but that would be the case with any bit of domestic politics. Sell in May...

I would steer clear of stocks like Serco who make their money off privatised services though.

Alanbrooke

MikeSmithson said:

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

Panelbase's huge swing to Labour was the shocker. Labour leads of 3% with TNS and 4% with Survation are nothing unusual.

Panelbase do tend to produce some exciting results. Their claim to fame is mostly based on calling the 2011 Holyrood elections right, since then they have been less notable.

Panelbase was one of the top pollsters at the IndyRef alongside Ipsos-MORI and Survation.

The firm's GB polling is new and in common with many pollster is untested in a general election.

I seem to remember in the Indyref Panelbase were running consistently pro Yes ahead of the other pollsters. They ended up rolling back their position to closer to the other pollsters but wasn;t that after a methodology change ?

noisywinter

foxinsoxuk said:

noisywinter said:

peter_from_putney said:

noisywinter (Yesterday):
"I wish the markets hadn't closed and I could cash out my equities

I seriously think there's gonna be a very red ed day on the markets tomorow"

Well, FWIW a few minutes ago, IG Index had the FTSE 100 Index closing up by around 25 points today at 7041. Of course they could be proved wrong!

Yep markets in total denial- its gonna be interesting if Labour win. I will take the opportunity to significantly liquidate and maybe a cheeky short on the Sterling and the FTSE

I don't think so, though quite likely to get a bit more volatile as the election day approaches. The market bottomed out in early 2009 and has been on an upward trend since. The uncertainty over the coalition did not make much difference in May 2010.

The market may peak soon (it is at record highs) but that would be the case with any bit of domestic politics. Sell in May...

I would steer clear of stocks like Serco who make their money off privatised services though.

Well I don't think the 'volatility' will be a net spike up in the coming weeks!

Roger

The way the two main parties are offering ever more lavish bribes for our votes is quite thrilling.

When they get to a long week-end at the Cipriani in Venice I might weaken.

peter_from_putney

richardDodd said:

A five year freeze on rail fares..Winner..

Quite so ..... but the ultra-cynical rail commuting public will be asking and with considerable justification: "But why only now?"

PeterC

noisywinter said:

peter_from_putney said:

noisywinter (Yesterday):
"I wish the markets hadn't closed and I could cash out my equities

I seriously think there's gonna be a very red ed day on the markets tomorow"

Well, FWIW a few minutes ago, IG Index had the FTSE 100 Index closing up by around 25 points today at 7041. Of course they could be proved wrong!

Yep markets in total denial- its gonna be interesting if Labour win. I will take the opportunity to significantly liquidate and maybe a cheeky short on the Sterling and the FTSE

Interesting. FTSE looks to be in a pretty solid uptrend on my chart. Lets see how effectively it can hold the break above 7,000. STG/USD is probing below $1.50, which is a major support area. Lets see how a copes with this: a strong rally and a weekly close above $1.50 could be a better straw in the wind than the polls IMO.

richardDodd

PFP I don't think they will give a damn..it is still a winner... it will arrive with a Conservative victory as will the Referendum

Alanbrooke

peter_from_putney said:

richardDodd said:

A five year freeze on rail fares..Winner..

Quite so ..... but the ultra-cynical rail commuting public will be asking and with considerable justification: "But why only now?"

tut tut PtP you'll be saying it's becasue of the election next.

chestnut

alex. said:

"Conservatives to "freeze" rail fares for five years.

Question for supporters of the Govt's Local Government policies. Why is it for Private Sector providers of Public services a "freeze" is always actually an inflationary increase, and it is not considered reasonable for them to make below inflationary rises on the back of efficiencies and increased passenger numbers (even though doing these things are supposed to be Private Sector strengths on the back of increased capacity to invest), but in local Govt land ,inflation is not believed to exist (even though much of their services are delivered by Private Sector contractors expecting inflationary increases every year...)

I would have thought the £4bn subsidy of the railways would be high on the list of anyone seriously wanting to make a dent in the deficit.

It would mean lines and services closing though.

Charles

alex. said:

"Conservatives to "freeze" rail fares for five years.

Question for supporters of the Govt's Local Government policies. Why is it for Private Sector providers of Public services a "freeze" is always actually an inflationary increase, and it is not considered reasonable for them to make below inflationary rises on the back of efficiencies and increased passenger numbers (even though doing these things are supposed to be Private Sector strengths on the back of increased capacity to invest), but in local Govt land ,inflation is not believed to exist (even though much of their services are delivered by Private Sector contractors expecting inflationary increases every year...)

Cui bono.

Local government budgets are easy for central government to cut because someone else takes the blame.

Of course the rail fares policy is not a "freeze" in terms any normal person understands: they've shifted the maximum price increase for the basket of regulated fares from RPI+1 to RPI.

So if they felt like it, the rail companies could still impose stonking increases on selected routes...

TOPPING

Will Gatwick oil = people believe there is after all a money tree = spend spend spend it now = profligacy = Lab govt forever more = UK becomes Venezuela?

noisywinter

PeterC said:

noisywinter said:

peter_from_putney said:

noisywinter (Yesterday):
"I wish the markets hadn't closed and I could cash out my equities

I seriously think there's gonna be a very red ed day on the markets tomorow"

Well, FWIW a few minutes ago, IG Index had the FTSE 100 Index closing up by around 25 points today at 7041. Of course they could be proved wrong!

Yep markets in total denial- its gonna be interesting if Labour win. I will take the opportunity to significantly liquidate and maybe a cheeky short on the Sterling and the FTSE

Interesting. FTSE looks to be in a pretty solid uptrend on my chart. Lets see how effectively it can hold the break above 7,000. STG/USD is probing below $1.50, which is a major support area. Lets see how a copes with this: a strong rally and a weekly close above $1.50 could be a better straw in the wind than the polls IMO.

I bow to your superior charting expertise! I'm not a trader. But my layman view would be if any macro event could poke through an uptrend it would be Red Ed with his red hot pitchfork!

peter_from_putney

Alanbrooke said:

peter_from_putney said:

richardDodd said:

A five year freeze on rail fares..Winner..

Quite so ..... but the ultra-cynical rail commuting public will be asking and with considerable justification: "But why only now?"

tut tut PtP you'll be saying it's becasue of the election next.

That's £1 you owe the PB.com Social Fund for confusing me with another poster.

Charles

Roger said:

The way the two main parties are offering ever more lavish bribes for our votes is quite thrilling.

When they get to a long week-end at the Cipriani in Venice I might weaken.

If they offer that to everyone wouldn't it lower the tone somewhat?

Roger

Does anyone have an idea of the Lib Dems tactics during this campaign? Their attitude towards the Tories seems quite schizophrenic. One minute they're smothering with love bites the next they're attacking them with machettes.

It's tricky for them but this seems the worst of all worlds

alex.

Charles said:

alex. said:

"Conservatives to "freeze" rail fares for five years.

Question for supporters of the Govt's Local Government policies. Why is it for Private Sector providers of Public services a "freeze" is always actually an inflationary increase, and it is not considered reasonable for them to make below inflationary rises on the back of efficiencies and increased passenger numbers (even though doing these things are supposed to be Private Sector strengths on the back of increased capacity to invest), but in local Govt land ,inflation is not believed to exist (even though much of their services are delivered by Private Sector contractors expecting inflationary increases every year...)

Cui bono.

Local government budgets are easy for central government to cut because someone else takes the blame.

Of course the rail fares policy is not a "freeze" in terms any normal person understands: they've shifted the maximum price increase for the basket of regulated fares from RPI+1 to RPI.

So if they felt like it, the rail companies could still impose stonking increases on selected routes...

Well quite:

a) it's not a freeze across the board
b) it's not a "freeze", it is an inflationary increase
c) it's not an "inflationary increase" in line with the main Govt measure of inflation (CPI).

Gadfly

Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...

alex.

noisywinter said:

PeterC said:

noisywinter said:

peter_from_putney said:

noisywinter (Yesterday):
"I wish the markets hadn't closed and I could cash out my equities

I seriously think there's gonna be a very red ed day on the markets tomorow"

Well, FWIW a few minutes ago, IG Index had the FTSE 100 Index closing up by around 25 points today at 7041. Of course they could be proved wrong!

Yep markets in total denial- its gonna be interesting if Labour win. I will take the opportunity to significantly liquidate and maybe a cheeky short on the Sterling and the FTSE

Interesting. FTSE looks to be in a pretty solid uptrend on my chart. Lets see how effectively it can hold the break above 7,000. STG/USD is probing below $1.50, which is a major support area. Lets see how a copes with this: a strong rally and a weekly close above $1.50 could be a better straw in the wind than the polls IMO.

I bow to your superior charting expertise! I'm not a trader. But my layman view would be if any macro event could poke through an uptrend it would be Red Ed with his red hot pitchfork!

I suspect the markets will be far more concerned about a heavily hung Parliament than a clear Labour winner. Markets can probably influence a majority govt (even one predisposed against their interests) in a way they can't influence a govt dependent on minority votes.

richardDodd

Cipriani,s has slipped a bit so I am informed..much more fun to get plastered in Harry,s Bar

peter_from_putney

Stephen Fisher's updated weekly GE seats projection due out in the next hour or so. Labour assured of closing the gap, if not actually taking the lead on the back of some recent poor polling numbers for the Blue Team.

JosiasJessop

chestnut said:

alex. said:

"Conservatives to "freeze" rail fares for five years.

Question for supporters of the Govt's Local Government policies. Why is it for Private Sector providers of Public services a "freeze" is always actually an inflationary increase, and it is not considered reasonable for them to make below inflationary rises on the back of efficiencies and increased passenger numbers (even though doing these things are supposed to be Private Sector strengths on the back of increased capacity to invest), but in local Govt land ,inflation is not believed to exist (even though much of their services are delivered by Private Sector contractors expecting inflationary increases every year...)

I would have thought the £4bn subsidy of the railways would be high on the list of anyone seriously wanting to make a dent in the deficit.

It would mean lines and services closing though.

Network Rail's debt (now in the public sector) is expected to reach £50 billion by 2019. Part of this is accounted for by the upgrades necessary to cope with growing passenger numbers, for instance the various electrification schemes (all hail the coalition government for that). But it is still a massive and unhealthy level of debt.

If anything, we need rail prices to be put up, so the passenger and freight companies pay more track access charges to NR. The current system is great for passengers, but terrible for the nation's finances. Passengers get the advantage of NR's debt, but don't pay for most of it.

I do not expect this post to be popular. ;-)

Roger

Charles

"If they offer that to everyone wouldn't it lower the tone somewhat?"

Good point but I thought campaigning was so sophisticted they could tailor their message to indiviual voters.

Easterross for example could be offered midge repellent

OblitusSumMe

TOPPING said:

Will Gatwick oil = people believe there is after all a money tree = spend spend spend it now = profligacy = Lab govt forever more = UK becomes Venezuela?

Didn't work that way in the 80s. Tory government for tax cuts.

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

Stephen Fisher's updated weekly GE seats projection due out in the next hour or so. Labour assured of closing the gap, if not actually taking the lead on the back of some recent poor polling numbers for the Blue Team.

Take the 6-4 Ed PM if it's still up with hills

another_richard

A pretty pathetic comment from David 'the man who complained about Labour plans to cut the maximum pension pot but went quite when the Conservatives did it' Herdson last night:

" FWIW, I think Labour's going to win. The country doesn't have an adequate appreciation of how much shit we're all in and are going to vote for sparkly trinkets and the nice fuzzy feeling of having other people pay for the state to take care of all the responsibilities in their lives. It's mindless, ignorant, selfish and childish but that doesn't mean it's not going to happen. "

Why should the country have an adequate appreciation of how much shit we're all in when Cameron lied about "paying down Britain's debts". Or when Osborne claims Britain is doing so well in his Budget speech - which incidentally included a lie about the previous month's trade deficit being the lowest for fifteen years ?

Why shouldn't the country vote for the sparkly trinkets it wants when this government always finds money for the sparkly trinkets it wants eg HS2 ?

Why shouldn't the country vote for the nice fuzzy feeling when this government always finds money to give it the nice fuzzy feels it wants eg increased Overseas Aid ?

Why should the country think there's a shortage of money when everyday there's a promise from this government of future spending increases or future subsidies or future tax cuts eg paid voluntary leave and a rail fares freeze promised this morning ?

Instead Conservatives prefer to blame the people for being 'mindless, ignorant, selfish and childish'.

If you want 'mindless, ignorant, selfish and childish' you'll find plenty of it in Downing Street.

foxinsoxuk

Roger said:

Charles

"If they offer that to everyone wouldn't it lower the tone somewhat?"

Good point but I thought campaigning was so sophisticted they could tailor their message to indiviual voters.

Easterross for example could be offered midge repellent

I am still waiting for my owl. I am going to hold Ed to his promise...

Easterross

Morning all and on reading the thread header, I suspect OGH is kidding himself on. Ashcroft' 10 marginal this week showed a swing of 1.95% from Con to Labour. On that basis Labour will struggle to win more than 20 Tory seats and are set to lose 30 to the SNP.

I would reckon Jack's ARSE is a more reliable predictor than OGH.

MonikerDiCanio

OblitusSumMe said:

TOPPING said:

Will Gatwick oil = people believe there is after all a money tree = spend spend spend it now = profligacy = Lab govt forever more = UK becomes Venezuela?

Didn't work that way in the 80s. Tory government for tax cuts.

But it turned Scotland from a Tory/Liberal land of sanity into a SLab/SNP madhouse.

asjohnstone

Easterross said:

Morning all and on reading the thread header, I suspect OGH is kidding himself on. Ashcroft' 10 marginal this week showed a swing of 1.95% from Con to Labour. On that basis Labour will struggle to win more than 20 Tory seats and are set to lose 30 to the SNP.

I would reckon Jack's ARSE is a more reliable predictor than OGH.

Those seats weren't presented as representative of the marginals as a whole, but rather as 10 outliers that weren't in line with the broader trend.

Scott_P

@politicshome: Ed Miliband rules out a second Scottish independence referendum http://t.co/6JsxI4byrG http://t.co/VLLAme0WWQ

AlastairMeeks

SMukesh said:

Tories seem to be making a lot of unfunded pledges,safe in the knowledge they aren't coming back?

The rail pledge looks more like a con than uncosted. Fares will still rise, but not faster than inflation. That's not what most people would call a freeze.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

F1: just scanned some reports on P1. Apparently the five-tenths between Rosberg [Hamilton the same margin ahead] and the Ferraris is indicative of Mercedes returning to dominance.

That may be true. But the Mercedes had a four-tenths margin ahead of the Ferraris in every session of Malaysian qualifying:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/2015/malaysian-grand-prix/results/practice

Edited extra bit: P2 still got 25 minutes or so to go.

Easterross

Stephen Fisher will be interesting this morning. Populabourus will of course no doubt have its twice weekly Labour lead this morning.

murali_s

richardDodd said:

A five year freeze on rail fares..Winner..

Nationalisation makes more sense....

A "real" vote winner if Ed is brave enough!

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: just scanned some reports on P1. Apparently the five-tenths between Rosberg [Hamilton the same margin ahead] and the Ferraris is indicative of Mercedes returning to dominance.

That may be true. But the Mercedes had a four-tenths margin ahead of the Ferraris in every session of Malaysian qualifying:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/2015/malaysian-grand-prix/results/practice

Edited extra bit: P2 still got 25 minutes or so to go.

It looks as though the McLarens are doing a little better as well. And let's hope Manor can qualify - I like the plucky underdog.

FalseFlag

JosiasJessop said:

chestnut said:

alex. said:

"Conservatives to "freeze" rail fares for five years.

Question for supporters of the Govt's Local Government policies. Why is it for Private Sector providers of Public services a "freeze" is always actually an inflationary increase, and it is not considered reasonable for them to make below inflationary rises on the back of efficiencies and increased passenger numbers (even though doing these things are supposed to be Private Sector strengths on the back of increased capacity to invest), but in local Govt land ,inflation is not believed to exist (even though much of their services are delivered by Private Sector contractors expecting inflationary increases every year...)

I would have thought the £4bn subsidy of the railways would be high on the list of anyone seriously wanting to make a dent in the deficit.

It would mean lines and services closing though.

Network Rail's debt (now in the public sector) is expected to reach £50 billion by 2019. Part of this is accounted for by the upgrades necessary to cope with growing passenger numbers, for instance the various electrification schemes (all hail the coalition government for that). But it is still a massive and unhealthy level of debt.

If anything, we need rail prices to be put up, so the passenger and freight companies pay more track access charges to NR. The current system is great for passengers, but terrible for the nation's finances. Passengers get the advantage of NR's debt, but don't pay for most of it.

I do not expect this post to be popular. ;-)

I wonder if those academics who showed what an immense cost immigration had been to this country included such infrastructure costs. Solve immigration, solve the deficit.

Pulpstar

@Peterfromputney

Buying any sort of Labour seats or seat spread is not the best Labour bet imo whilst the 6-4 with Hills for PM Ed remains up (PM on August 1st)

http://ponyonthetories.blogspot.co.uk/ for the reasoning

foxinsoxuk

Easterross said:

Morning all and on reading the thread header, I suspect OGH is kidding himself on. Ashcroft' 10 marginal this week showed a swing of 1.95% from Con to Labour. On that basis Labour will struggle to win more than 20 Tory seats and are set to lose 30 to the SNP.

I would reckon Jack's ARSE is a more reliable predictor than OGH.

The Ashcroft polls did show some seat to seat variation, and getting a good sample in single constituencies is a bit of an issue.

Nonetheless the Tories were doing well in the North West and Midlands. A swing TO the Tories in Loughborough for example, and whoever takes Loughborough has formed the government for several decades.

I do not like the spread betting markets. It is easy to get the downside wrong.

I now have about £500 at risk on May 7th. I will probably put a few further stakes on towards the day itself but am getting close to my limits.

JosiasJessop

Roger said:

Charles

"If they offer that to everyone wouldn't it lower the tone somewhat?"

Good point but I thought campaigning was so sophisticted they could tailor their message to indiviual voters.

Easterross for example could be offered midge repellent

Point of order: if Easterross lives in the place I think he does, then midges are not that much of a problem. It's far worse on the west coast.

Highlanders are the easiest-going people on the planet. If I had to live with the long, dark winters, only to be plagued with midges during the summer, then I'd become a homicidal maniac.

Pulpstar

For the Tories its still backing in individual seats.

JosiasJessop

FalseFlag said:

JosiasJessop said:

chestnut said:

alex. said:

"Conservatives to "freeze" rail fares for five years.

Question for supporters of the Govt's Local Government policies. Why is it for Private Sector providers of Public services a "freeze" is always actually an inflationary increase, and it is not considered reasonable for them to make below inflationary rises on the back of efficiencies and increased passenger numbers (even though doing these things are supposed to be Private Sector strengths on the back of increased capacity to invest), but in local Govt land ,inflation is not believed to exist (even though much of their services are delivered by Private Sector contractors expecting inflationary increases every year...)

I would have thought the £4bn subsidy of the railways would be high on the list of anyone seriously wanting to make a dent in the deficit.

It would mean lines and services closing though.

Network Rail's debt (now in the public sector) is expected to reach £50 billion by 2019. Part of this is accounted for by the upgrades necessary to cope with growing passenger numbers, for instance the various electrification schemes (all hail the coalition government for that). But it is still a massive and unhealthy level of debt.

If anything, we need rail prices to be put up, so the passenger and freight companies pay more track access charges to NR. The current system is great for passengers, but terrible for the nation's finances. Passengers get the advantage of NR's debt, but don't pay for most of it.

I do not expect this post to be popular. ;-)

I wonder if those academics who showed what an immense cost immigration had been to this country included such infrastructure costs. Solve immigration, solve the deficit.

A bogus and stupid argument. The growth in passenger numbers has far exceeded population growth.

pinball13

JosiasJessop said:

chestnut said:

alex. said:

"Conservatives to "freeze" rail fares for five years.

Question for supporters of the Govt's Local Government policies. Why is it for Private Sector providers of Public services a "freeze" is always actually an inflationary increase, and it is not considered reasonable for them to make below inflationary rises on the back of efficiencies and increased passenger numbers (even though doing these things are supposed to be Private Sector strengths on the back of increased capacity to invest), but in local Govt land ,inflation is not believed to exist (even though much of their services are delivered by Private Sector contractors expecting inflationary increases every year...)

I would have thought the £4bn subsidy of the railways would be high on the list of anyone seriously wanting to make a dent in the deficit.

It would mean lines and services closing though.

Network Rail's debt (now in the public sector) is expected to reach £50 billion by 2019. Part of this is accounted for by the upgrades necessary to cope with growing passenger numbers, for instance the various electrification schemes (all hail the coalition government for that). But it is still a massive and unhealthy level of debt.

If anything, we need rail prices to be put up, so the passenger and freight companies pay more track access charges to NR. The current system is great for passengers, but terrible for the nation's finances. Passengers get the advantage of NR's debt, but don't pay for most of it.

I do not expect this post to be popular. ;-)

If NR deserve more cash why should it come from pax and not TOCs?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Jessop, glanced at Twitter. Ferrari may be better on the medium tyres [it's only a maybe, though]. I'd still expect Mercedes to get the front row.

McLaren, if they can get their issues sorted, will make a number of great leaps forward. It'll be interesting to see [if we do] what the car's ultimate pace is.

malcolmg

Scott_P said:

@politicshome: Ed Miliband rules out a second Scottish independence referendum http://t.co/6JsxI4byrG http://t.co/VLLAme0WWQ

These losers really know their stuff. What chance is there of SNP being under 50% with total useless erses like this pontificating on what we can and cannot do.

richardDodd

No more Nationalisation please...I still remember the last batch..

Easterross

Josias, you are quite correct. On the Moray Firth we have our own variety of Nationalist peasant biting midgies. They don't bite poor aristos, gentry and farming folk as our diets aren't rich enough and we have been around for 30 generations so we are not very tasty!

Pulpstar

JosiasJessop said:

chestnut said:

alex. said:

"Conservatives to "freeze" rail fares for five years.

Question for supporters of the Govt's Local Government policies. Why is it for Private Sector providers of Public services a "freeze" is always actually an inflationary increase, and it is not considered reasonable for them to make below inflationary rises on the back of efficiencies and increased passenger numbers (even though doing these things are supposed to be Private Sector strengths on the back of increased capacity to invest), but in local Govt land ,inflation is not believed to exist (even though much of their services are delivered by Private Sector contractors expecting inflationary increases every year...)

I would have thought the £4bn subsidy of the railways would be high on the list of anyone seriously wanting to make a dent in the deficit.

It would mean lines and services closing though.

Network Rail's debt (now in the public sector) is expected to reach £50 billion by 2019. Part of this is accounted for by the upgrades necessary to cope with growing passenger numbers, for instance the various electrification schemes (all hail the coalition government for that). But it is still a massive and unhealthy level of debt.

If anything, we need rail prices to be put up, so the passenger and freight companies pay more track access charges to NR. The current system is great for passengers, but terrible for the nation's finances. Passengers get the advantage of NR's debt, but don't pay for most of it.

I do not expect this post to be popular. ;-)

One of the big issues I have with the coalition copying Blairism. The Railways are now neither fish nor fowl, like Universities and some other stuff. If Railways, Schools, Hospitals are going to be either nationalised or privatised we should go the whole shebang. Privatising the profits and nationalising the debt is the worst of both worlds.

BenM

That was quite a fun topsy turvey day yesterday.

Very positive for Labour in nearly all respects. Let's see if it is maintained. The next seven days will be more indicative.

And RIP Richie Benaud. A true legend.

peter_from_putney

Easterross said:

Morning all and on reading the thread header, I suspect OGH is kidding himself on. Ashcroft' 10 marginal this week showed a swing of 1.95% from Con to Labour. On that basis Labour will struggle to win more than 20 Tory seats and are set to lose 30 to the SNP.

I would reckon Jack's ARSE is a more reliable predictor than OGH.

But it isn't just JackW who is projecting a comfortable Tory win - last Friday Stephen Fisher had the Blue Team winning by 300 seats to Labour's 258, a net loss of 30 points or £600 in OGH's example ..... Ouch!

another_richard

Charles said:

alex. said:

"Conservatives to "freeze" rail fares for five years.

Question for supporters of the Govt's Local Government policies. Why is it for Private Sector providers of Public services a "freeze" is always actually an inflationary increase, and it is not considered reasonable for them to make below inflationary rises on the back of efficiencies and increased passenger numbers (even though doing these things are supposed to be Private Sector strengths on the back of increased capacity to invest), but in local Govt land ,inflation is not believed to exist (even though much of their services are delivered by Private Sector contractors expecting inflationary increases every year...)

Cui bono.

Local government budgets are easy for central government to cut because someone else takes the blame.

Of course the rail fares policy is not a "freeze" in terms any normal person understands: they've shifted the maximum price increase for the basket of regulated fares from RPI+1 to RPI.

So if they felt like it, the rail companies could still impose stonking increases on selected routes...

That will be the RPI which the government says shouldn't be used when comparing inflation to pay rises.

Pulpstar

malcolmg said:

Scott_P said:

@politicshome: Ed Miliband rules out a second Scottish independence referendum http://t.co/6JsxI4byrG http://t.co/VLLAme0WWQ

These losers really know their stuff. What chance is there of SNP being under 50% with total useless erses like this pontificating on what we can and cannot do.

Judging by the polls alot of No voters must have smelt the coffee by now too.

not_on_fire

It's very hard not to feel cynical about any government when they happily use RPI for money you have to pay them, but then claim it's inappropriate for money they pay out and the lower CPI should be used instead.

As for the rail fares policy, hopefully this will treated with appropriate disdain given the Tories privatised the railways and at the start of this parliament removed the fares flex and rose fares by RPI+3

Plato

I've just caught up with the last thread - not the disaster for the Tories some were predicting. The change of the Guardian's frontpage is most amusing. Premature ejaculation if ever there was one.

Gadfly said:

Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

Easterross said:

Morning all and on reading the thread header, I suspect OGH is kidding himself on. Ashcroft' 10 marginal this week showed a swing of 1.95% from Con to Labour. On that basis Labour will struggle to win more than 20 Tory seats and are set to lose 30 to the SNP.

I would reckon Jack's ARSE is a more reliable predictor than OGH.

But it isn't just JackW who is projecting a comfortable Tory win - last Friday Stephen Fisher had the Blue Team winning by 300 seats to Labour's 258, a net loss of 30 points or £600 in OGH's example ..... Ouch!

PM Ed is still value at 6-4 on that projection from Stephen Fisher. This is why it's such a ridiculous bet right now.

Alistair

we

richardDodd said:

No more Nationalisation please...I still remember the last batch..

Yeah East Coast rail was such a disaster.

Oh no, wait, it was flippin brilliant and made massive profits for the tax payer. My mistake.

Roger

Doddy

"A five year freeze on rail fares..Winner.."

I think I'd hold out for better than that

Alistair

So that's both Cameron and Miliband coming out against the universal right for self determination. Interesting.

peter_from_putney

BenM said:

That was quite a fun topsy turvey day yesterday.

Very positive for Labour in nearly all respects. Let's see if it is maintained. The next seven days will be more indicative.

And RIP Richie Benaud. A true legend.

I remember the old joke about why Richie Benaud never opened his mouth when commentating - the same reason why Aussies wear those crazy hats with corks hanging down on strings ..... it's to stop the flies getting in.

God bless him.

Pulpstar

Roger said:

Doddy

"A five year freeze on rail fares..Winner.."

I think I'd hold out for better than that

@Roger With regard to your Scottish bets I reckon Edinburgh South may well be one of the last bastions that Labour narrowly holds. Not so sure on Aberdeen South.

Roger

Easterross


"Populabourus will of course no doubt have its twice weekly Labour lead this morning."

Have you always been paranoid? Maybe it's a Scottish thing....

SquareRoot

Alistair said:

we

richardDodd said:

No more Nationalisation please...I still remember the last batch..

Yeah East Coast rail was such a disaster.

Oh no, wait, it was flippin brilliant and made massive profits for the tax payer. My mistake.

British rail was an effing disaster, it made huge losses with out of date rolling stock, it was never much better than cattle trucks.. it never had the money to invest in the infrastructure nor adequately for decent rolling stock..

Pulpstar

Alistair said:

So that's both Cameron and Miliband coming out against the universal right for self determination. Interesting.

If neither Labour nor the Conservatives want another go - well it's up to them. But they in return will get no favours from SNP MPs.

Labour couldn't have played a better game than it has so far to lose Scotland tbh.

chestnut

Pulpstar said:

One of the big issues I have with the coalition copying Blairism. The Railways are now neither fish nor fowl, like Universities and some other stuff. If Railways, Schools, Hospitals are going to be either nationalised or privatised we should go the whole shebang. Privatising the profits and nationalising the debt is the worst of both worlds.

A nationalised rail service would be a disaster for whoever the transport minister was.

It would be as troublesome and irritating as the unionised London Tube is to the Mayor.

I suspect that devolution and FFA would focus a few minds on the cost of it all when you see the comparative per mile subsidies.

Jonathan

Roger said:

Does anyone have an idea of the Lib Dems tactics during this campaign? Their attitude towards the Tories seems quite schizophrenic. One minute they're smothering with love bites the next they're attacking them with machettes.

It's tricky for them but this seems the worst of all worlds

They're in a tricky position. Not only are they simultaneously pro and anti the Tories. If they promise to do something, it's reasonable to assume they will do the opposite if they get into government. The stronger their promise, the more likely the u turn.

FalseFlag

Alistair said:

So that's both Cameron and Miliband coming out against the universal right for self determination. Interesting.

Still not recognising Crimea's long sought reunification with Russia, let alone pressuring Kiev to implement Minsk II by devolving power and restarting basic state services?

OblitusSumMe

MonikerDiCanio said:

OblitusSumMe said:

TOPPING said:

Will Gatwick oil = people believe there is after all a money tree = spend spend spend it now = profligacy = Lab govt forever more = UK becomes Venezuela?

Didn't work that way in the 80s. Tory government for tax cuts.

But it turned Scotland from a Tory/Liberal land of sanity into a SLab/SNP madhouse.

Plan for losing Sussex, then.

MonikerDiCanio

peter_from_putney said:

BenM said:

That was quite a fun topsy turvey day yesterday.

Very positive for Labour in nearly all respects. Let's see if it is maintained. The next seven days will be more indicative.

And RIP Richie Benaud. A true legend.

I remember the old joke about why Richie Benaud never opened his mouth when commentating - the same reason why Aussies wear those crazy hats with corks hanging down on strings ..... it's to stop the flies getting in.

God bless him.

If only the UK public had someone with a tenth of Benaud's acumen and wisdom to vote for in the GE.
A heartfelt salute to the incomparable Benaud.

Morris_Dancer

P2 over.

Pre-qualifying piece should be up sometime today.

SouthamObserver

Alistair said:

So that's both Cameron and Miliband coming out against the universal right for self determination. Interesting.

The UK is a country and one that the Scots have just voted to remain a part of in a referendum that those advocating separation consistently declared was a once in a lifetime/generation opportunity. Why should I, a citizen of this country, have to see its existence put at risk every few years unless it is the will of the people of the UK that this be the case? As we know, the SNP signed up to the Smith Commission which confirmed that issues pertaining to the UK constitution were a reserved matter.

Roger

Pulpstar


@Roger With regard to your Scottish bets I reckon Edinburgh South may well be one of the last bastions that Labour narrowly holds. Not so sure on Aberdeen South.

I hope you're right. Edinburgh South is the one I'm really concerned about. It's ironic that one of the closest results last time should now be among the safer ones. Having said that it's by no means a shoo in. What position would you put it in in terms of likely SLAB wins?