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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s hoping that taking on the non doms could be a narr

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  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    edited April 2015

    Non-doms: according to Andrew Neil's Twitter account, Labour promised to abolish the status in 1997.

    As I've said before, Labour are better at PR than the Conservatives, but bloody awful at actually governing.

    We'll see whether that 1997 promise or Balls a few months ago makes the broadcast or print media.

    It seems most of Ed's announcements were also promised in 1997. I guess the difference is that Blair was just lying, as he clearly thought it was better not to tackle these as UK economy boomed in the late 90's.

    I think Ed does believe he can and should do these things and we will be better off for doing it. Hollande thought it was just as easy to soak the rich and no austerity, what is Red Ed's favourite world leader doing now?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sky news report leads with Ed Balls comments...
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Morning all.

    Labour had 13 years to do something about Nom-Doms , there was a reason why they didn’t.

    This new policy by Ed shows a significant shift to the left imho and is just another attack on wealth creators and big employers.

    Yep - sounds like he is going to go "Hollande on steroids" - that worked well for the French

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    Pulpstar said:

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
    My resources will be deployed exclusively in West Yorkshire.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    F1: I think P3 finishes at about 6am on Saturday. If so, I'll put up the pre-qualifying piece on Friday.
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Jeremy Clarkson is set to make his first appearance on the BBC since losing his job as co-presenter on Top Gear.

    The controversial broadcaster will appear as the guest host of Have I Got News for You on 24 April.

    "Jeremy's contract has not been renewed on Top Gear but he isn't banned from appearing on the BBC," a BBC spokesman said.

    Clarkson has hosted the satirical news quiz on numerous occasions.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-32214799
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    Non-doms: according to Andrew Neil's Twitter account, Labour promised to abolish the status in 1997.

    As I've said before, Labour are better at PR than the Conservatives, but bloody awful at actually governing.

    We'll see whether that 1997 promise or Balls a few months ago makes the broadcast or print media.

    It seems most of Ed's announcements were also promised in 1997. I guess the difference is that Blair was just lying, as he clearly thought it was better not to tackle these as UK economy boomed in the late 90's.

    I think Ed does believe he can and should do these things and we will be better for doing it.
    Ed strikes me as a man who is well prepared to follow through.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I haven't had the news on in weeks - this is amusing enough to get me watching it again.
    Scott_P said:

    Sky news report leads with Ed Balls comments...

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    Pulpstar said:

    Non-doms: according to Andrew Neil's Twitter account, Labour promised to abolish the status in 1997.

    As I've said before, Labour are better at PR than the Conservatives, but bloody awful at actually governing.

    We'll see whether that 1997 promise or Balls a few months ago makes the broadcast or print media.

    It seems most of Ed's announcements were also promised in 1997. I guess the difference is that Blair was just lying, as he clearly thought it was better not to tackle these as UK economy boomed in the late 90's.

    I think Ed does believe he can and should do these things and we will be better for doing it.
    Ed strikes me as a man who is well prepared to follow through.
    I think you are right.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    Pulpstar said:

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
    My resources will be deployed exclusively in West Yorkshire.
    Aha - Halifax, Guiseley, Dewsbury and Keighley :)
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    BenM said:

    BenM said:

    I find it highly entertaining on this thread that the PB Tory response seems to be "only if this raises money" while the PB Labour response seems to say "this is right and fair even if it costs money".

    In which case PB Labourites, what budgets do you think should be cut to make this change if it costs money. Welsh Labour cut the NHS budget while English Tories increased it - do PB Labourites want to cut the NHS budget to pay for this change or would you prefer to cut something else?

    Defending an anachronistic relic of the colonial age.

    Has it really come to this for Tories?!
    Nonsense is it an anachronistic relic, the name may unusual be but many, many nations only charge local incomes and not foreign incomes unless they're brought in (exactly the same as the UK). There are plenty of nations for non-doms to up sticks and move to very, very easily if they wish to do so.

    But if you're so keen on costing the Treasury money in the name of "relics" where would you prefer to be cut? Do you want to cut the NHS or something else?

    Has it really come to this for Labour?
    It won't cost money.

    The Tories managed to spew £3bn on a reform no one wanted to make the NHS far worse than it was in 2010. Nothing to do with tax.

    Tory bunker billowing with smoke again.
    Afraid to answer the question?

    Considering that Ed Balls and Alastair Darling have both said it will cost money, I repeat - if it costs money which departments do you want to cut to pay for it?
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    For Ceredigion watchers

    Plaid Cymru has been urged to remove its general election candidate for Ceredigion over claims that he once compared some English-born residents of rural Wales to Nazis.

    Mike Parker said he was "younger and angrier" when he said in 2001 parts of Wales were inhabited by "gun-toting Final Solution crackpots".

    Plaid said he now recognised the language he used as "inappropriate".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-32214504
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,667

    F1: I think P3 finishes at about 6am on Saturday. If so, I'll put up the pre-qualifying piece on Friday.

    Is this race live on the BBC, or is it one of their treacherous delayed highlight shows?

    As an aside, how long has the BBC contract got left? Is there a chance that we'll lose all races (bar the British GP, which I think is protected) from terrestrial TV?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited April 2015

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Plato said:



    So EdM sticks to the NHS instead and reverts to class war and non-doms? It's so lacking in coherence and grown-up economics - it'd be laughable if it wasn't so serious.

    You're right.

    But it will be popular - it's a new variety on "evil bankers will pay for good stuff for me"

    But it send a very clear, very unpleasant message.

    The demonisation of a specific group of individuals - which seems at the heart of Labour's approach - is very worrying. What next: should all bankers be forced to wear little yellow strips of cloth on their arms to indicate their wealth?
    I'm afraid Charles your now stuck with banker bashing for the rest of your working life. Osborne needed to put some blood on the carpet early on to kill the issue. He didn't and now it will hang around like a bad smell and get dragged out at every election.
    These things go in cycles. If it's the fate of my generation to be beaten then so be it. We'll still be here, doing our bit to help the UK, when the beating stops
    I think this is more than cyclical Charles, the size of the shock will stick with several generations. It will be like Germans and inflation.
    So like the second half of the 19th century. Oh well. Will prepare my daughter accordingly.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,122
    Could we be heading for another polling disaster like 1992?

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    If the polls are right, don't change much and UNS is followed even if only E+W, then Ed is PM.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,481
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
    My resources will be deployed exclusively in West Yorkshire.
    Aha - Halifax, Guiseley, Dewsbury and Keighley :)
    The likes of Elmet & Rothwell and Pudsey are going to be High Noon in this election.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157
    GIN1138 said:

    Could we be heading for another polling disaster like 1992?

    UKIP's general downweighting and the Lib Dems general upweighting could be overdone I'll admit.
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    One Labour person in charge of Treasury matters to another Labour Party Leader.
    "There is nothing that you could ever say to me now that I could ever believe."

    Fast forward to Ed Balls position on nomdoms in January..... and compare to what RedEdMiliband has said.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ToryTreasury: Fastest unravelling on record? Shows why Ed Miliband and Ed Balls should never be allowed anywhere near our economy http://t.co/H6AIEUsU5L
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    GIN1138 said:

    Could we be heading for another polling disaster like 1992?

    I think the polls are going to be largely right.

    Where things will go wrong is UNS.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I see the Tory Letter got another Labour donor
    Among the new signatories is Simon Woodroffe (pictured), the founder of Yo! Sushi and a former Labour backer, who appeared in a 2004 political broadcast.
    I heard a lovely intv with Mr Woodroffe just after he sold Yo! - he asked for the entire balance of the sale to be sent to his current account so he could stand at an ATM and print off the balance slip of £42000000.

    I was impressed at such a simple little pleasure.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Tory Treasury ‏@ToryTreasury 14m14 minutes ago
    HMRC data: more than 60% of non-doms here for 5 years or less - majority of non-doms unaffected by Labour policy
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    F1: I think P3 finishes at about 6am on Saturday. If so, I'll put up the pre-qualifying piece on Friday.

    Is this race live on the BBC, or is it one of their treacherous delayed highlight shows?

    As an aside, how long has the BBC contract got left? Is there a chance that we'll lose all races (bar the British GP, which I think is protected) from terrestrial TV?
    It looks like the treacherous delayed highlight show I'm afraid.
    BBC do have Bahrain next weekend if that's any consolation?
    http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/formula1/30704154
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    So to sum up:

    1: Taxing only locally-earned income like this is done in many nations including Ireland
    2: Anyone in the UK has the right to move to Ireland.
    3: Alastair Darling said it will cost the UK money
    4: Ed Balls said it will cost the UK money
    5: Its a good idea because ...
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    So Ed Balls thinks it would cost the UK money..are EdM and Ed Balls actually talking to each other... it all sounds rather chaotic to me
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    OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I don't understand this non-dom stuff. What tax advantage would accrue from claiming non-dom status as a citizen of Ireland, for example?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758



    I agree on the last sentence, of course, but I don't actually think anyone is demonising individual bankers as people. ... here we are merely discussing the exact proportions of large incomes to be paid in tax.

    It's not the details of the policy that are the issue.

    It's ongoing meme: "bankers destroyed the economy" ; "rich foreigners not paying their fair share"; "immigrants stealing our jobs"; "all muslims are about to join ISIS and/or murder us in our beds" [NB to be clear not all of these are Labour memes - you aren't the only guilty ones]

    In each case it is the identification of a group of "others" that normal people rarely, if ever, have much interaction with, and blaming them for everything that is wrong with our country.

    A Britain like that is a smaller and less pleasant country in my view. And I will condemn UKIP or Labour or whoever else promulgates it. Some Tories do, but not the leadership - who rightly focus on tax evasion and aggressive tax avoidance and on benefit fraud.

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    Mr. Pit, last year's race aside, Bahrain has tended to be bloody awful as a spectacle. It's my view overtaking is harder this year, which may mean it returns to tedium in Bahrain.

    Mr. Jessop, not sure about the contract. The BBC's Judas approach to coverage was and remains despicable [fair enough to lose it, not fair enough to do a deal to take it, for the first time ever, off of free-to-air TV].
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    So to sum up:

    1: Taxing only locally-earned income like this is done in many nations including Ireland
    2: Anyone in the UK has the right to move to Ireland.
    3: Alastair Darling said it will cost the UK money
    4: Ed Balls said it will cost the UK money
    5: Its a good idea because ...

    Ed Miliband believes he will gain at least one more vote.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I called it *thrashing about* earlier. I think I was understating it.

    So Ed Balls thinks it would cost the UK money..are EdM and Ed Balls actually talking to each other... it all sounds rather chaotic to me

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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    I don't understand this non-dom stuff. What tax advantage would accrue from claiming non-dom status as a citizen of Ireland, for example?

    It means all their earnings in Ireland is still taxed in Ireland, not the UK.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
    My resources will be deployed exclusively in West Yorkshire.
    Aha - Halifax, Guiseley, Dewsbury and Keighley :)
    The likes of Elmet & Rothwell and Pudsey are going to be High Noon in this election.
    Going to be a shocking night for the Tories if they don't hold onto Elmet.

    Also I reckon Dave can't afford to lose Pudsey - Ed can just about become PM without it.

    If Ed doesn't gain Dewsbury he ain't going to be PM
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    It seems to me that after a couple of shaky days at the start of the campaign, Labour are being very successful in dominating the media narrative with policy announcements at the start of each day.

    Tories best hope is very much a repeat of 1992, namely understating in the polls and Labour support melting away at the last minute.

    If Labour do get in (either with SNP or LD support) or on their own, then they better be sure that they do not foul up the economy this time. If they do, with perceived weak leadership and with UKIP waiting in the wings to sweep much of their WWC vote, they will be finished, maybe forever.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    So to sum up:

    1: Taxing only locally-earned income like this is done in many nations including Ireland
    2: Anyone in the UK has the right to move to Ireland.
    3: Alastair Darling said it will cost the UK money
    4: Ed Balls said it will cost the UK money
    5: Its a good idea because ...

    Ed Miliband believes he will gain at least one more vote.
    And it knocks Blair's 'unhelpful' intervention off the news cycle.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I thought ISIS were odds on to win Dewsbury at this rate.
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
    My resources will be deployed exclusively in West Yorkshire.
    Aha - Halifax, Guiseley, Dewsbury and Keighley :)
    The likes of Elmet & Rothwell and Pudsey are going to be High Noon in this election.
    Going to be a shocking night for the Tories if they don't hold onto Elmet.

    Also I reckon Dave can't afford to lose Pudsey - Ed can just about become PM without it.

    If Ed doesn't gain Dewsbury he ain't going to be PM
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761
    Ha ha - Guido's elves have found the video of Balls from January saying that abolishing non-dom status "Probably ends up costing Britain money".

    He's also being a good representative for the Irish Chamber of Commerce, pointing out why the affected non-doms should relocate there! I expect Luxembourg, Monaco and Switzerland to be promoting themselves too, as well as the Asian city states.
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    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Perfect timing from Ed to differentiate between Labour and the Cons.

    If this latest red wheeze from Labour is so wonderful, why oh why did they not do it when they were in power for 13 years?

    The election is in 1 month.different leader,different party,different times...in case you haven't noticed

    Different party?
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Charles said:



    I agree on the last sentence, of course, but I don't actually think anyone is demonising individual bankers as people. ... here we are merely discussing the exact proportions of large incomes to be paid in tax.

    It's not the details of the policy that are the issue.

    It's ongoing meme: "bankers destroyed the economy" ; "rich foreigners not paying their fair share"; "immigrants stealing our jobs"; "all muslims are about to join ISIS and/or murder us in our beds" [NB to be clear not all of these are Labour memes - you aren't the only guilty ones]

    In each case it is the identification of a group of "others" that normal people rarely, if ever, have much interaction with, and blaming them for everything that is wrong with our country.

    A Britain like that is a smaller and less pleasant country in my view. And I will condemn UKIP or Labour or whoever else promulgates it. Some Tories do, but not the leadership - who rightly focus on tax evasion and aggressive tax avoidance and on benefit fraud.

    A much better way of putting what I was trying to say! I agree.

    How many times over have they spent the bankers' bonus tax now?
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    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
    My resources will be deployed exclusively in West Yorkshire.
    Aha - Halifax, Guiseley, Dewsbury and Keighley :)
    The likes of Elmet & Rothwell and Pudsey are going to be High Noon in this election.
    Going to be a shocking night for the Tories if they don't hold onto Elmet.

    Also I reckon Dave can't afford to lose Pudsey - Ed can just about become PM without it.

    If Ed doesn't gain Dewsbury he ain't going to be PM
    Elmet & Rothwell is one of those seats were you'd think, Majority of 8% and 16% Lib Dems there, Labour should hose up, according to all the hype.

    But we're very confident on holding the seat.

    Which makes me think, the 2010 Lib Dems to Lab switchers might not be that influential.
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    hi all, I have a question, apologies if it has been discussed on here before.
    Taking the odds available with bookmakers in each constituency and apportioning seats on that basis, as has been done by firstpastthepost.net in recent weeks, suggests that Labout would have a small lead in seats (currently 280-275), clearly contrasting with the current Most Seats market on Betfair and with bookmakers. My question is, do people think these findings are invalidated by likely restrictions on how much bookmakers will allow to be bet on individual seats ie do they treat them almost like novelty bets? My suspicion is that the answer is yes but I haven't tried to place a hefty bet on a constituency bet. Given that there are clearly people leaving lumpy four-figure bets on Tories to get most seats on Betfair at around 1.5, does this highlight a lack of sophistication amongst those punters or simply reflect it's not worth the effort trying to bet on multiple individual seats at better odds given likely restrictions? And does anyone have personal experience of how much it's possible to get on with bookmakers on an individual seat?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: Norman Smith slams Balls: "this was meant to be be a major manifesto pledge... and it's gone pear shaped"
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The opinions given in the article and the headline don't tally.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rosschawkins: Surely Lab knew that Balls iv was out there? Must have expected it to hit social media and get played back to back with his clips on telly
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I lost count at 9x. Think there's been a few more since then...

    Charles said:



    I agree on the last sentence, of course, but I don't actually think anyone is demonising individual bankers as people. ... here we are merely discussing the exact proportions of large incomes to be paid in tax.

    It's not the details of the policy that are the issue.

    It's ongoing meme: "bankers destroyed the economy" ; "rich foreigners not paying their fair share"; "immigrants stealing our jobs"; "all muslims are about to join ISIS and/or murder us in our beds" [NB to be clear not all of these are Labour memes - you aren't the only guilty ones]

    In each case it is the identification of a group of "others" that normal people rarely, if ever, have much interaction with, and blaming them for everything that is wrong with our country.

    A Britain like that is a smaller and less pleasant country in my view. And I will condemn UKIP or Labour or whoever else promulgates it. Some Tories do, but not the leadership - who rightly focus on tax evasion and aggressive tax avoidance and on benefit fraud.

    A much better way of putting what I was trying to say! I agree.

    How many times over have they spent the bankers' bonus tax now?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Norman Smith slams Balls: "this was meant to be be a major manifesto pledge... and it's gone pear shaped"

    If this really is a "major" part of the Labour manifesto, that blank piece of paper is still very empty.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Well done agent Ed Balls.

    ?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 59,292
    The question, at this point, for betting types, is not whether non-dom policy will work, but will it change the vote?
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,122
    edited April 2015



    If Labour do get in (either with SNP or LD support) or on their own, then they better be sure that they do not foul up the economy this time.

    Of course Labour will foul up the economy. It's what they do.



    If they do, with perceived weak leadership and with UKIP waiting in the wings to sweep much of their WWC vote, they will be finished, maybe forever.


    Every cloud has a silver lining.... :smiley:
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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Sandpit said:

    Ha ha - Guido's elves have found the video of Balls from January saying that abolishing non-dom status "Probably ends up costing Britain money".

    He's also being a good representative for the Irish Chamber of Commerce, pointing out why the affected non-doms should relocate there! I expect Luxembourg, Monaco and Switzerland to be promoting themselves too, as well as the Asian city states.

    How patriotic!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoshGrimstone: .@BBCNormanS desribes #BallsUp on non-doms as 'major gaffe moment"
    Chaos from @UKLabour
    How could they ever be trust to run the economy?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Did Tony Blair suggest this line of attack? Or perhaps Mandy?

    I can't think of who else could benefit from it!
    Scott_P said:

    @rosschawkins: Surely Lab knew that Balls iv was out there? Must have expected it to hit social media and get played back to back with his clips on telly

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    Going going gone.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/585735738941124608/photo/1

    Good job Labour don't run breweries.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,761

    Mr. Pit, last year's race aside, Bahrain has tended to be bloody awful as a spectacle. It's my view overtaking is harder this year, which may mean it returns to tedium in Bahrain.

    Mr. Jessop, not sure about the contract. The BBC's Judas approach to coverage was and remains despicable [fair enough to lose it, not fair enough to do a deal to take it, for the first time ever, off of free-to-air TV].

    Mr Dancer,
    Last year's race was brilliant because I didn't go for the first time in 5 years.
    The good news (for you if not for me) is that I'm not going this year either, so it may be another classic!
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    Charles said:

    Well done agent Ed Balls.

    ?
    Watch the video I posted in the comment before that.

    Ed Balls has sunk the non doms policy.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited April 2015
    Tax expert on Sky News, George Bull, it will "affect only 5,000 people"!
    "We think it will affect very few."

    Stunned. 5,000 is a WTF. Add to the circa 30,000 upset by being on a zero hour contract.

    Labour have become the party of the "less than 0.1%".
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157
    edited April 2015

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
    My resources will be deployed exclusively in West Yorkshire.
    Aha - Halifax, Guiseley, Dewsbury and Keighley :)
    The likes of Elmet & Rothwell and Pudsey are going to be High Noon in this election.
    Going to be a shocking night for the Tories if they don't hold onto Elmet.

    Also I reckon Dave can't afford to lose Pudsey - Ed can just about become PM without it.

    If Ed doesn't gain Dewsbury he ain't going to be PM
    Elmet & Rothwell is one of those seats were you'd think, Majority of 8% and 16% Lib Dems there, Labour should hose up, according to all the hype.

    But we're very confident on holding the seat.

    Which makes me think, the 2010 Lib Dems to Lab switchers might not be that influential.
    Eh ?

    I've never been tempted to hedge out of the extraordinary 9-2 either @Antifrank or Nabavi pointed out on Elmet a couple of years back - once.

    Elmet take Labour over 300 seats methinks !
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    "ISIS List of Punishments..."

    Put some of those punishments up for referendum here, and you might be surprised at how much support they get.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: Correction: Earlier we mistakenly stated @labourpress had stopped bringing a spoon to a knife fight. This was an error, and we apologise.
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    richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    The MSM and Twitter are all having a laugh at the Non Dom fiasco..well done Ed and Ed
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    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
    My resources will be deployed exclusively in West Yorkshire.
    Aha - Halifax, Guiseley, Dewsbury and Keighley :)
    The likes of Elmet & Rothwell and Pudsey are going to be High Noon in this election.
    Going to be a shocking night for the Tories if they don't hold onto Elmet.

    Also I reckon Dave can't afford to lose Pudsey - Ed can just about become PM without it.

    If Ed doesn't gain Dewsbury he ain't going to be PM
    Elmet & Rothwell is one of those seats were you'd think, Majority of 8% and 16% Lib Dems there, Labour should hose up, according to all the hype.

    But we're very confident on holding the seat.

    Which makes me think, the 2010 Lib Dems to Lab switchers might not be that influential.
    Eh ?

    I've never been tempted to hedge out of the extraordinary 9-2 either @Antifrank or Nabavi pointed out on Elmet a couple of years back - once.
    I know, it was my point, people used to say you could stick half the 2010 Lib Dem share onto Lab's 2010 vote.

    They don't say that now.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Was it Croc Dundee or Indiana Jones who started this meme? Croc did the "No this is a knife" and Indie shot a bloke - but which was first?
    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Correction: Earlier we mistakenly stated @labourpress had stopped bringing a spoon to a knife fight. This was an error, and we apologise.

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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:



    I agree on the last sentence, of course, but I don't actually think anyone is demonising individual bankers as people. ... here we are merely discussing the exact proportions of large incomes to be paid in tax.

    It's not the details of the policy that are the issue.

    It's ongoing meme: "bankers destroyed the economy" ; "rich foreigners not paying their fair share"; "immigrants stealing our jobs"; "all muslims are about to join ISIS and/or murder us in our beds" [NB to be clear not all of these are Labour memes - you aren't the only guilty ones]

    In each case it is the identification of a group of "others" that normal people rarely, if ever, have much interaction with, and blaming them for everything that is wrong with our country.

    A Britain like that is a smaller and less pleasant country in my view. And I will condemn UKIP or Labour or whoever else promulgates it. Some Tories do, but not the leadership - who rightly focus on tax evasion and aggressive tax avoidance and on benefit fraud.

    A much better way of putting what I was trying to say! I agree.

    How many times over have they spent the bankers' bonus tax now?
    Ironically I thought your post at 10:10 was a much better way of phrasing what I was trying to say!
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    Plato said:

    Was it Croc Dundee or Indiana Jones who started this meme? Croc did the "No this is a knife" and Indie shot a bloke - but which was first?

    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Correction: Earlier we mistakenly stated @labourpress had stopped bringing a spoon to a knife fight. This was an error, and we apologise.

    The Untouchables.

    You wanna know how to get Capone? They pull a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. *That's* the *Chicago* way! And that's how you get Capone
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    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Norman Smith slams Balls: "this was meant to be be a major manifesto pledge... and it's gone pear shaped"

    When Norman Smith attacks Labour they really really have effed up.

    Still, will the voters notice?
    This is the time for the Conservatives to roll out the posters and spend their war chest.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Oliver Cooper ‏@OliverCooper

    For a policy launch to completely unravel by 10:30am is pretty shambolic, even for Labour.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Norman Smith slams Balls: "this was meant to be be a major manifesto pledge... and it's gone pear shaped"

    Balls gone pear-shaped?

    That must hurt!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157
    Top trolling on the BBC comments board:

    "435. Posted by F1Fan
    on
    8 minutes ago
    Here is a real life scenario for you all - this is actually legal!

    I run an internet based business, I host my site on a server in Hong Kong and declare that when I die I wish to be buried in the republic of Ireland.

    Although I make a salary of 1.5 million per year I now have to pay only £30,000 tax.

    Oh and I have to ensure I take lots of holidays abroad, but hey I can afford it."
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I noticed that no one in poster display has noted buying up strategically important sites yet. Before GE2010 = we had quite a good handle on which ones were block booked way in advance [client unknown but an educated guess].

    Anyone out there who can find out?

    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Norman Smith slams Balls: "this was meant to be be a major manifesto pledge... and it's gone pear shaped"

    When Norman Smith attacks Labour they really really have effed up.

    Still, will the voters notice?
    This is the time for the Conservatives to roll out the posters and spend their war chest.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,122
    To be fair to Ed Balls, I think he know's the NomDom policy is nonsense and was being truthful in January when he admitted it was a pointless policy - He's probably been forced into the annoucement by Mad Milli.
  • Options
    The first Indiana Jones film (1981) came out before 'Dundee' (1986).

    Also, I believe the original Indy script called for a long fist-fight with the sword-wielding guy; shooting him was an ab-lib Ford thought up on the day to save time.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato said:

    Was it Croc Dundee or Indiana Jones who started this meme? Croc did the "No this is a knife" and Indie shot a bloke - but which was first?

    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Correction: Earlier we mistakenly stated @labourpress had stopped bringing a spoon to a knife fight. This was an error, and we apologise.

    Must have been Indy - RotLA was back in early 80s and Croc not until 1985/6?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Love it. Thanx.

    The first Indiana Jones film (1981) came out before 'Dundee' (1986).

    Also, I believe the original Indy script called for a long fist-fight with the sword-wielding guy; shooting him was an ab-lib Ford thought up on the day to save time.

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Wow the BBC Election Live rolling coverage page currently virtually back-to-back on this mornings #BallsUp

    BenM seems to have gone rather quiet without ever saying what he'd prefer to cut if it costs money like Balls thinks.
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    Plato said:

    I noticed that no one in poster display has noted buying up strategically important sites yet. Before GE2010 = we had quite a good handle on which ones were block booked way in advance [client unknown but an educated guess].

    Anyone out there who can find out?

    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Norman Smith slams Balls: "this was meant to be be a major manifesto pledge... and it's gone pear shaped"

    When Norman Smith attacks Labour they really really have effed up.

    Still, will the voters notice?
    This is the time for the Conservatives to roll out the posters and spend their war chest.
    If they really have not bought up the key sites, then their campaign plan is very deficient. very bad planning, not the way to handle a big launch when you have buckets of dosh.
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    Nick Palmer,

    Only just saw your reply now but thank you for your kind comments and answer.

    Good luck with the campaign (and I say this as someone who is not a Labour member).

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I live in an ultra-marginal and we have posters in town with Milliband in Salmond's pocket up.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,057
    Plato said:

    I thought ISIS were odds on to win Dewsbury at this rate.

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
    My resources will be deployed exclusively in West Yorkshire.
    Aha - Halifax, Guiseley, Dewsbury and Keighley :)
    The likes of Elmet & Rothwell and Pudsey are going to be High Noon in this election.
    Going to be a shocking night for the Tories if they don't hold onto Elmet.

    Also I reckon Dave can't afford to lose Pudsey - Ed can just about become PM without it.

    If Ed doesn't gain Dewsbury he ain't going to be PM

    Are ISIS a registered political party in the UK?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157

    I live in an ultra-marginal and we have posters in town with Milliband in Salmond's pocket up.

    Which one :D ?
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    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Norman Smith slams Balls: "this was meant to be be a major manifesto pledge... and it's gone pear shaped"

    Balls gone pear-shaped?
    That must hurt!
    Only one response. Men only.
    http://checkemlads.com/v1.htm

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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The two eds

    It's more like Dick and non-Dom.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,335
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
    My resources will be deployed exclusively in West Yorkshire.
    Aha - Halifax, Guiseley, Dewsbury and Keighley :)
    The likes of Elmet & Rothwell and Pudsey are going to be High Noon in this election.
    Going to be a shocking night for the Tories if they don't hold onto Elmet.

    Also I reckon Dave can't afford to lose Pudsey - Ed can just about become PM without it.

    If Ed doesn't gain Dewsbury he ain't going to be PM
    Elmet & Rothwell is one of those seats were you'd think, Majority of 8% and 16% Lib Dems there, Labour should hose up, according to all the hype.

    But we're very confident on holding the seat.

    Which makes me think, the 2010 Lib Dems to Lab switchers might not be that influential.
    Eh ?

    I've never been tempted to hedge out of the extraordinary 9-2 either @Antifrank or Nabavi pointed out on Elmet a couple of years back - once.

    Elmet take Labour over 300 seats methinks !
    Those 16% Lib Dems would probably go 5% for the Lib Dems this time, 5% for Labour, 2% Conservative, 2% UKIP, 2% for Others this time round. An advantage for Labour, but hardly decisive.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    I live in an ultra-marginal and we have posters in town with Milliband in Salmond's pocket up.

    Which one :D ?
    Warrington South.

    Three way marginal last time: 35.8% Con (Gain from Lab), 33.0% Lab, 27.5 LD

    So far not seen a single Lab poster (though at the last Euros we had Unite posters in town as well as Con and UKIP).
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    dr_spyn said:
    Ed Balls has flip flopped on this faster than he's changed the status of his home to claim MPs expenses.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @itvnews: Ed Balls said in January that abolishing non-dom status 'would probably cost Britain money' http://t.co/TFPYtQ0Okf http://t.co/R541G3lZrO
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2015

    I've just unveiled #UKIP's new poster in #Grimsby. Our fisheries have been gutted by the EU. #UKIP will change this. pic.twitter.com/seq6yIf1IN

    — Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) April 8, 2015

    See also UKIP & EFD pamphlet called "Stolen Seas". No link, google it.

    Now I linked it:
    http://www.ukip-ashford.co.uk/images/Stolen Seas.pdf
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    DennisBetsDennisBets Posts: 244
    Pulpstar said:

    Top trolling on the BBC comments board:

    "435. Posted by F1Fan
    on
    8 minutes ago
    Here is a real life scenario for you all - this is actually legal!

    I run an internet based business, I host my site on a server in Hong Kong and declare that when I die I wish to be buried in the republic of Ireland.

    Although I make a salary of 1.5 million per year I now have to pay only £30,000 tax.

    Oh and I have to ensure I take lots of holidays abroad, but hey I can afford it."

    Hell yes....we are gonna shut you down boiiiiiiy :)
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited April 2015
    MikeK said:

    I've just unveiled #UKIP's new poster in #Grimsby. Our fisheries have been gutted by the EU. #UKIP will change this. pic.twitter.com/seq6yIf1IN

    — Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) April 8, 2015

    See also UKIP & EFD pamphlet called "Stolen Seas". No link, google it.

    The UK Fishermen who sold their quotas to the Spanish gutted the industry.

    Never fails to amaze me that they're willing to blame others for this, whilst more than happy to take the boat loads of cash on offer.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,157
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Went canvassing yesterday, forgotten how much fun it is.

    High peak ?
    My resources will be deployed exclusively in West Yorkshire.
    Aha - Halifax, Guiseley, Dewsbury and Keighley :)
    The likes of Elmet & Rothwell and Pudsey are going to be High Noon in this election.
    Going to be a shocking night for the Tories if they don't hold onto Elmet.

    Also I reckon Dave can't afford to lose Pudsey - Ed can just about become PM without it.

    If Ed doesn't gain Dewsbury he ain't going to be PM
    Elmet & Rothwell is one of those seats were you'd think, Majority of 8% and 16% Lib Dems there, Labour should hose up, according to all the hype.

    But we're very confident on holding the seat.

    Which makes me think, the 2010 Lib Dems to Lab switchers might not be that influential.
    Eh ?

    I've never been tempted to hedge out of the extraordinary 9-2 either @Antifrank or Nabavi pointed out on Elmet a couple of years back - once.

    Elmet take Labour over 300 seats methinks !
    Those 16% Lib Dems would probably go 5% for the Lib Dems this time, 5% for Labour, 2% Conservative, 2% UKIP, 2% for Others this time round. An advantage for Labour, but hardly decisive.
    Add 20% of the Lib Dem vote to Labour for a net effect maybe on average.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,800
    MikeK said:

    I've just unveiled #UKIP's new poster in #Grimsby. Our fisheries have been gutted by the EU. #UKIP will change this. pic.twitter.com/seq6yIf1IN

    — Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) April 8, 2015

    See also UKIP & EFD pamphlet called "Stolen Seas". No link, google it.

    BUT BUT BUT the BBC told us on the radio all day yesterday it is ok, fishing has gone (no mention why), but there are wind turbines now.
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    I live in an ultra-marginal and we have posters in town with Milliband in Salmond's pocket up.

    There's one by the Redbridge roundabout (border of Wanstead and Ilford.)

    To be honest, I think most people seeing it would wonder why the SNP are campaigning in Essex.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @itvnews: Ed Balls said in January that abolishing non-dom status 'would probably cost Britain money' http://t.co/TFPYtQ0Okf http://t.co/R541G3lZrO

    Oh dear. Another case of the two Eds not briefing each other - or ad hoc policy on the hoof?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,667
    Do any Labour-leaning posters have any comments to make over the success of the government's troubled families scheme?

    Or are they more interested in hatred of the rich (excepting 'their' rich) than helping the less fortunate?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    EdM is making a speech about NonDoms shortly - this will be fun. I wouldn't normally watch him - but after the debacle this morning, I can't wait to hear the rationale for it.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,294
    All gone pear shaped.

    http://order-order.com/2015/04/08/bbc-on-labour-non-dom-gaffe-its-all-gone-pear-shaped/#_@/b-TYV7E9nUDVTA

    Does the two EdEd monster not talk with each other?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: Watch @BBCNormanS savage @edballsmp: http://t.co/4PLOV8o4jc Is there bad blood here?
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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Interesting poll tonight.....so I hear!
This discussion has been closed.