Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 31m 31 minutes ago #LibDems and #Greens in ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) since August - Greens now in free-fall?
twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/585151283759357952
If I wasn't on my phone I'd have he perfect image to describe the LDs performance.
Cameron helped out Labour by insisting on Bennett being invited to the debates.
How was that related to my post?
If you see the thread, there was mention of Greens in free fall.
The Laffer Curve has been known about for decades that's why,
The Laffer curve is notional only.
There is no evidence that the tax revenue curve has a single turning point. Also I'm amazed that every single proponent of the Laffer curve always an ever believes that we are on the right hand side of the curve.
Well we can compare and contrast the relative success and failure in both growing the economy and cutting the budget deficit in France (increasing top rate tax dramatically to 75%) and the UK (cutting back to a bit above Labour's preferred tax rate). Which nations have grown better since the 2012 budget and which deficits have come down faster?
It is total dishonesty to claim that Labour ever charged more than 40%. In their 13 whole years in power they only ever charged a top rate of 40% - for a reason.
The reason was that they did not need to. It only became an issue after the crash. The change was announced in the 2009 budget, the first opportunity to do so after the crash happened. As we all know, Osborne announced the reduction in 2012, a year before it happened, just as he has announced all other income tax related changes a year before they actually took place.
Typical Labour ignorance to think there was no deficit issue prior to the crash. The previous government ran a deficit of 2.5% or more every year from 2002 onwards, not 2009. Of course if you're running a 3.5% deficit like in 2004/5 during a boom then its going to be more in a bust, that's Economics 101. Yet even then Labour never once increased the top rate of tax.
Who, except for those on the left, was calling for top rate tax rises prior to 2008/09? Nobody. If you are now saying that the top rate of tax should have been raised earlier then I agree with you.
The problem with the british economies wasnt we werent taxed enough, its that we spend too much.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 33m 33 minutes ago Week-ending 5th April 2015 - First ever Tory lead in ELBOW! Con 34.1, Lab 33.8, UKIP 13.7, LD 8.0, Greens 4.8
Best bet about at moment is the 6/1 from Hills on LAB in Thanet South.
Con was 17% ahead of Lab in Thanet South in 2010.
For Lab to beat Con in Thanet South (regardless of what UKIP does) would imply a national Lab vote lead of at least 5% (it would be 10% on UNS) which would be Lab majority territory - available at 47-1 on Betfair.
But the last poll I saw had Con 31, Lab 30, UKIP 29. That shows an 8% swing from Con to Lab. Labour will finish third here. Either the Tories or UKIP, one of them has to give. I think Farage will by 5 points from Labour.
No you have Labour and UKIP reversed I believe.
I meant to say Labour will finish second here with UKIP first.
Sorry Surbiton. I wasn't arguing with your logic. Just I think you have the Labour and UKIP votes from the last poll reversed.
The Laffer Curve has been known about for decades that's why,
The Laffer curve is notional only.
There is no evidence that the tax revenue curve has a single turning point. Also I'm amazed that every single proponent of the Laffer curve always an ever believes that we are on the right hand side of the curve.
Well we can compare and contrast the relative success and failure in both growing the economy and cutting the budget deficit in France (increasing top rate tax dramatically to 75%) and the UK (cutting back to a bit above Labour's preferred tax rate). Which nations have grown better since the 2012 budget and which deficits have come down faster?
It is total dishonesty to claim that Labour ever charged more than 40%. In their 13 whole years in power they only ever charged a top rate of 40% - for a reason.
The reason was that they did not need to. It only became an issue after the crash. The change was announced in the 2009 budget, the first opportunity to do so after the crash happened. As we all know, Osborne announced the reduction in 2012, a year before it happened, just as he has announced all other income tax related changes a year before they actually took place.
Typical Labour ignorance to think there was no deficit issue prior to the crash. The previous government ran a deficit of 2.5% or more every year from 2002 onwards, not 2009. Of course if you're running a 3.5% deficit like in 2004/5 during a boom then its going to be more in a bust, that's Economics 101. Yet even then Labour never once increased the top rate of tax.
Who, except for those on the left, was calling for top rate tax rises prior to 2008/09? Nobody. If you are now saying that the top rate of tax should have been raised earlier then I agree with you.
The problem with the british economies wasnt we werent taxed enough, its that we spend too much.
What is the rule regarding Prime Minister after the election ? Is it after a confidence motion or just the next day ? If not, Cameron wins anyway because he will the PM for a few days , at least, unless it is a bad defeat.
I quite like the British system in this respect. In a way the PM is a bit like a medieval king or emperor (if you ignore the democracy!). As I see it a PM remains PM until they are deposed. Presumably if an opposition wins a majority at a general election it makes sense for a PM to just resign rather than try and win a confidence vote or pass a Queen's speech. If it's a hung parliament then the PM can try and soldier on until it's clear they can't command a majority in the house and then I presume they resign and recommend the leader of the largest party excluding their own gets a try.
What is the rule regarding Prime Minister after the election ? Is it after a confidence motion or just the next day ? If not, Cameron wins anyway because he will the PM for a few days , at least, unless it is a bad defeat.
I quite like the British system in this respect. In a way the PM is a bit like a medieval king or emperor (if you ignore the democracy!). As I see it a PM remains PM until they are deposed. Presumably if an opposition wins a majority at a general election it makes sense for a PM to just resign rather than try and win a confidence vote or pass a Queen's speech. If it's a hung parliament then the PM can try and soldier on until it's clear they can't command a majority in the house and then I presume they resign and recommend the leader of the largest party excluding their own gets a try.
Thanks. But I was asking the question from a betting point of view. Cameron is favourite, but I am having difficulty understanding that since the Tories should be equally favourite.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 33m 33 minutes ago Week-ending 5th April 2015 - First ever Tory lead in ELBOW! Con 34.1, Lab 33.8, UKIP 13.7, LD 8.0, Greens 4.8
Best bet about at moment is the 6/1 from Hills on LAB in Thanet South.
People should not overlook Thurrock. This idea that it is sown up for UKIP is debatable. 12/5 best bet !
Yes Thurrock Labout 12/5 from 1/5 big movers!!
Just had another ride round Castle Point. Not a sniff of activity, apart from some local anti-development campaign poster. Didn't visit Canvey, though
I was in Leigh on Sea twice last week.. no political activity that I remember..
But there is a big UKIP billboard at Upminster Bridge, which is in my constituency, I noticed it today
The poster is a photo of a big coffee cup full of money with "Megabucks" written on it
"we will make big business pay their fair share of tax" (paraphrasing)
Obv a play on Starbucks.. I didn't really get it at first, though was jogging off a slight hangover!
Not UKIPs main message so a bit odd maybe? First bit of advertising I have seen around here from any party
We drove through Leigh as well, down roads where there are normally posters. Zilch.
However in Witham constituency there are few big Patel posters and a couple of small, generic, "Vote Labour" estate-agent-type boards. The was a big Tory poster on the way into Braintree but it's blown down and not been repaired.
"Backlash against Carmichael is gaining traction in Zetland."
I have seen some odd links to prove points on here but a letter from a reader of the Shetland Gazette to show a 'backlash' against Carmichael wins the Victor Ludorum.
Dair has finally taken the much coveted 'Party Hack award' from Scot n'pate.
5/2 for the Conservatives to win Corby is worth a punt..
Why?
Interesting seat. Louise Mensch won it for the Conservatives in 2010 by just less than 2000 votes. When she left Parliament two years later, Labour regained with a fairly comfortable majority of 7700. This majority was boosted by Louise Mensch's precipitate departure , but since then the local Conservatives are fighting hard with a very hard working Candidate and team. At 5/2 - 3/1 for the Tory's to regain, it might be worth a punt. The seat includes the town of Corby, which has traditionally been strongly "old" Labour and also the very rural East Northamptonshire which has been Conservative. It will be interesting to see which part of the Constituency outguns the other!
It would be interesting if the SNP surge and sense of Labour betrayal reached Corby!
An article in the Guardian on Cameron's "lamb" photo has this,
"When Thatcher’s big chance came with Maggie, she wasn’t about to let it slip: she held on to the calf for 13 minutes, solicitously asking the assembled photographers whether they had all the pictures they needed. Denis Thatcher famously muttered: “Be careful, dear, or you’ll have a dead calf on your hands.” Poor Maggie does look rather lifeless in one picture, but Thatcher got away with it: apparently the calf passed away not long after the photocall."
So, the Yes total, 46%, exactly matches the SNP total and even if the SNP win a comfortable majority of seats in May they would still narrowly lose a second referendum
Or a begging plea from Cameron to UKIP voters thread ? ;-)
He's saving them from voting in Ed by proxy. More of a public service - the big society you could call it.
Looks like Farage has logged into Carswells twitter again...
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:15 Come home to Dave? He's at home with Nick Clegg, Ed Lywellyn and all the other dreary, technocratic centrists.
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:17 Come home to Dave? Cameron and Crosby plan to hold a pretenderendum designed to achieve an In win based on a phoney New Deal. Don't be had
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:19 "Come home to us like a sensible fellow". Sound a little patrician from the guy who was calling you fruit cakes and racists, no?
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:21 "Now look. You just jolly well ought to come back here right now" demanded Cameron crossly
Or a begging plea from Cameron to UKIP voters thread ? ;-)
He's saving them from voting in Ed by proxy. More of a public service - the big society you could call it.
Looks like Farage has logged into Carswells twitter again...
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:15 Come home to Dave? He's at home with Nick Clegg, Ed Lywellyn and all the other dreary, technocratic centrists.
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:17 Come home to Dave? Cameron and Crosby plan to hold a pretenderendum designed to achieve an In win based on a phoney New Deal. Don't be had
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:19 "Come home to us like a sensible fellow". Sound a little patrician from the guy who was calling you fruit cakes and racists, no?
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:21 "Now look. You just jolly well ought to come back here right now" demanded Cameron crossly
I take issue with the second one. However much one might dislike how it will be framed, any referendum offered will presumably contain the option to leave, so it is not a pretenderendum at all, he's just whinging that what will be 'offered' from Europe will be spun and the media will be hostile, and that's not the same thing at all.
It's one of the weakest arguments in UKIP's arsenal, not least because I disagree with them that they would lose such a fight, if only they would actually fight it when the time comes rather than apparently planning to spend the whole time moaning about technicalities.
On the topic of good value bets. The Tory equivalent of Brent Central is fifteen miles north in St Albans. Surely with the Lib Dem effort to win Watford, the Tories must be shorter than the 1/9 consensus.
Only hope for Labour now is that the election period and Cameron's overtures to the Kipper wing will send wavering Red Liberals back to Labour rather than Green or non-voting. Though a Tory minority government could lead to a more sustainable Labour administration than a narrow Lab victory with the 'help' of the SNP
Only hope for Labour now is that the election period and Cameron's overtures to the Kipper wing will send wavering Red Liberals back to Labour rather than Green or non-voting. Though a Tory minority government could lead to a more sustainable Labour administration than a narrow Lab victory with the 'help' of the SNP
Parties should always try to win every election. There isn't a single post-war election that the winning party should have preferred to lose. People often talk about 1992 as one the Tories should have lost, but it was the greatest triumph the Conservatve Party ever had. It entrenched their worldview as the consensus in mainstream British politics for another 20 years and proved Labour were unelectable - not just due to Thatcher but due to taking socialism seriously.
Or a begging plea from Cameron to UKIP voters thread ? ;-)
He's saving them from voting in Ed by proxy. More of a public service - the big society you could call it.
Looks like Farage has logged into Carswells twitter again...
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:15 Come home to Dave? He's at home with Nick Clegg, Ed Lywellyn and all the other dreary, technocratic centrists.
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:17 Come home to Dave? Cameron and Crosby plan to hold a pretenderendum designed to achieve an In win based on a phoney New Deal. Don't be had
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:19 "Come home to us like a sensible fellow". Sound a little patrician from the guy who was calling you fruit cakes and racists, no?
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:21 "Now look. You just jolly well ought to come back here right now" demanded Cameron crossly
I take issue with the second one. However much one might dislike how it will be framed, any referendum offered will presumably contain the option to leave, so it is not a pretenderendum at all, he's just whinging that what will be 'offered' from Europe will be spun and the media will be hostile, and that's not the same thing at all.
It's one of the weakest arguments in UKIP's arsenal, not least because I disagree with them that they would lose such a fight, if only they would actually fight it when the time comes rather than apparently planning to spend the whole time moaning about technicalities.
I agree. It will only be a pretenderum if the Tories do something stupid like go along with the proposed Lib Dem rigging of the electorate. If the final renegotiation doesn't achieve much, there will be plenty in the Conservative party who will say so loudly. I can even imagine some in the Cabinet would resign their positions if they are forced to back an In vote without major reform. The dominant position in the party is that we have one last shot at trying to get the thing to work properly, and we won't be had again. It's time to get rid of the whole socialist bent to the thing, to restore the power of our own courts and to put some sensible limits on free movement. If we don't make major strides to doing that, then most of the Tory activist base will be out campaigning alongside Nigel Farage.
On David Cameron's "come home" message, he mentioned the next Conservative government would do more on immigration and the EU. Has he announced new policies here? It would be nice to have some more arguments to use against UKIP waiverers on the doorstop.
Or a begging plea from Cameron to UKIP voters thread ? ;-)
He's saving them from voting in Ed by proxy. More of a public service - the big society you could call it.
Looks like Farage has logged into Carswells twitter again...
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:15 Come home to Dave? He's at home with Nick Clegg, Ed Lywellyn and all the other dreary, technocratic centrists.
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:17 Come home to Dave? Cameron and Crosby plan to hold a pretenderendum designed to achieve an In win based on a phoney New Deal. Don't be had
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:19 "Come home to us like a sensible fellow". Sound a little patrician from the guy who was calling you fruit cakes and racists, no?
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:21 "Now look. You just jolly well ought to come back here right now" demanded Cameron crossly
I It's one of the weakest arguments in UKIP's arsenal, not least because I disagree with them that they would lose such a fight, if only they would actually fight it when the time comes rather than apparently planning to spend the whole time moaning about technicalities.
. If we don't make major strides to doing that, then most of the Tory activist base will be out campaigning alongside Nigel Farage.
It is frustrating. There are things we need to sort out from our end, and things from there end. We need to have proper enforcement of minimum wage, with constabularies told that they need to take action on enfringement and the CPS need to prosecute. We need to make sure that local authorities are enforcing occupancy issues in housing with landlords that sneak through the cracks with dozens of young men to a house. We need to have a system of welfare that requires a minimum time of paying in before you can pay out. That child benefit and working tax credits are paid only to children resident here. Perfectly acceptable under EU rules. The EU doesnt care what we do, as long as we dont treat the citizens of other member states differently to how we treat our own.
Oh, and enforce equal opportunities in areas that are uncomfortable. If a company is only advertising for staff in polish language newspapers, it is almost certainly breaking legislation.
Or a begging plea from Cameron to UKIP voters thread ;-)
He's such a patronising git !
Don't read the comments at the bottom of the article - lol
I try to avoid reading the comments of politicians on facebook or twitter. It just opens the most foul abuse. A level that wouldnt be considered remotely acceptable in person.
Or a begging plea from Cameron to UKIP voters thread ;-)
He's such a patronising git !
Don't vote for what you believe in, you might end up with a slightly worse version of two things you don't like
Or as Peter Hitchens puts it...
"Imagine what would happen to a restaurant which, when you ordered steak, took an age to bring you a plate of lukewarm baked beans, accompanied by a platoon of spin doctors to tell you that this is what you really wanted, and to point out that the establishment next door was even worse?"
Or a begging plea from Cameron to UKIP voters thread ;-)
He's such a patronising git !
Don't read the comments at the bottom of the article - lol
I try to avoid reading the comments of politicians on facebook or twitter. It just opens the most foul abuse. A level that wouldnt be considered remotely acceptable in person.
I read them,it gives you a sense where things are going,not looking good Dave with the UKIP vote.
I think that's right. To date, Cameron seems to have been at his best when his back is against the wall, so I'm hoping he'll do that on EU changes. If he comes out and argues for sensible things, then it will be too politically embarrassing for Angela Merkel to oppose them, especially when she has her own eurosceptic opposition to face off. Things like supremacy of national courts over Brussels and limits on unemployed beggars being able to freely migrate should be so popular we will be bound to get them if we push hard enough.
I only post cute animal and novelty stories on Facebook as I'm only there by accident of my brother. I sometimes repost political stats/stories on Twitter but most are still great photography and fun stuff.
Being a single subject bore isn't something that appeals to me. And there are too many single braincell tweeters who are incapable of having an informed 140 character exchange.
Or a begging plea from Cameron to UKIP voters thread ;-)
He's such a patronising git !
Don't read the comments at the bottom of the article - lol
I try to avoid reading the comments of politicians on facebook or twitter. It just opens the most foul abuse. A level that wouldnt be considered remotely acceptable in person.
On David Cameron's "come home" message, he mentioned the next Conservative government would do more on immigration and the EU. Has he announced new policies here? It would be nice to have some more arguments to use against UKIP waiverers on the doorstop.
The UKIP waiverers are coming home already. Are you noticing anything different on the doorstep? It has become a rarity now to canvass a con to ukip switcher in a constituency i'm active in.
'I take issue with the second one. However much one might dislike how it will be framed, any referendum offered will presumably contain the option to leave, so it is not a pretenderendum at all, he's just whinging that what will be 'offered' from Europe will be spun and the media will be hostile, and that's not the same thing at all.
It's one of the weakest arguments in UKIP's arsenal, not least because I disagree with them that they would lose such a fight, if only they would actually fight it when the time comes rather than apparently planning to spend the whole time moaning about technicalities'
It's Carswell's weakest argument for defecting. In fact its no argument at all. A referendum gives a vote, the only way you are going to get that is by voting Tory. The public are not particularly energised to leave the EU, which makes not only makes any referendum exit vote difficult to achieve but also makes any UKIP majority unlikely as well (even some sort of Kingmaker result looks beyond them). If you want to live to see an EU referendum it would be crazy not to vote Tory in 2015.
Crosby predicted regular crossover (no more Labour leads) In January.
His model had the Tories 6 points up all the time now.
:-)
I meant Lynton Crosby not Rod Crosby.
His model`s such a joke,I prefer not to comment on it.
LOL - Agreed. RodCrosby will now come along and say the Tories will win by 150 seats!
Does anyone take him seriously?
I take Rod Crosby very seriously. I disagreed with him using the model outside the parameters it was originally modelled on, and I thought his use of the model when we have 5/6 parties polling over 5% was foolish. But that shouldn't prevent him putting in the hours to run the model regularly and reporting the result, because that's useful in its own right.
The usefulness of a model isn't in its accuracy, it's in its variance: a clock that is always exactly 30 minutes fast is useful, a clock that varies between 10 minutes fast and 10 minutes slow is useless, even if it's right on average.
My only problem with Rod is not that persisted withe the model for so long: it's that he stopped. If he'd kept going, we could tell how (in)accurate the model was and when.
On David Cameron's "come home" message, he mentioned the next Conservative government would do more on immigration and the EU. Has he announced new policies here? It would be nice to have some more arguments to use against UKIP waiverers on the doorstop.
The UKIP waiverers are coming home already. Are you noticing anything different on the doorstep? It has become a rarity now to canvass a con to ukip switcher in a constituency i'm active in.
Only hope for Labour now is that the election period and Cameron's overtures to the Kipper wing will send wavering Red Liberals back to Labour rather than Green or non-voting. Though a Tory minority government could lead to a more sustainable Labour administration than a narrow Lab victory with the 'help' of the SNP
Parties should always try to win every election. There isn't a single post-war election that the winning party should have preferred to lose. People often talk about 1992 as one the Tories should have lost, but it was the greatest triumph the Conservatve Party ever had. It entrenched their worldview as the consensus in mainstream British politics for another 20 years and proved Labour were unelectable - not just due to Thatcher but due to taking socialism seriously.
This next parliament is going to be ugly, far far uglier for Labour than the conservatives. That would be the only very fine thin silver lining to it. A party that has aligned itself as anti austerity having to cut cut cut. It will ahve to cut just to stand still The government has put into the budget significant departmental reductions in spending, but not outlined how they will be achieved.
They will be eaten alive from the left. Blair and co had the stomach for tough government, and the majority necessary for it. Ironically they preceded over such a golden inheritance and a benign global outlook that the only tough decisions they made involved their interventionist foreign policy.
So you think the Onion is secure because they are two points ahead years before another referendum. Mmmm.
It does strike me if Salmond was capable (and he was) of taking YES from 30 to 45 in the space of two years (and he did) then the sainted lady might well manage to push them over the top over the next few years.
Finally the lasy from Shtland may not represent a surge against the ludicrous Carmichael on he own but a) there should be one and b) it was a bloody good letter!
Or a begging plea from Cameron to UKIP voters thread ? ;-)
He's saving them from voting in Ed by proxy. More of a public service - the big society you could call it.
Looks like Farage has logged into Carswells twitter again...
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:15 Come home to Dave? He's at home with Nick Clegg, Ed Lywellyn and all the other dreary, technocratic centrists.
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:17 Come home to Dave? Cameron and Crosby plan to hold a pretenderendum designed to achieve an In win based on a phoney New Deal. Don't be had
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:19 "Come home to us like a sensible fellow". Sound a little patrician from the guy who was calling you fruit cakes and racists, no?
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:21 "Now look. You just jolly well ought to come back here right now" demanded Cameron crossly
If there is going to be a meaningful break in favour of one party or the other it surely has to come in the next fortnight. My expectation is that, as usual, the campaign will make little difference and what we see now is what we get. If so Labour will be the largest party.
Yes - IMO most of the remaining don't knows are simply not going to vote. I'm specialising in ringing supposed DKs at the moment, and there's a modest number who are genuinely undecided, but mostly it's quite clear what they're doing, mostly following their previous leaning or just not voting.
Only hope for Labour now is that the election period and Cameron's overtures to the Kipper wing will send wavering Red Liberals back to Labour rather than Green or non-voting. Though a Tory minority government could lead to a more sustainable Labour administration than a narrow Lab victory with the 'help' of the SNP
Parties should always try to win every election. There isn't a single post-war election that the winning party should have preferred to lose. People often talk about 1992 as one the Tories should have lost, but it was the greatest triumph the Conservatve Party ever had. It entrenched their worldview as the consensus in mainstream British politics for another 20 years and proved Labour were unelectable - not just due to Thatcher but due to taking socialism seriously.
This next parliament is going to be ugly, far far uglier for Labour than the conservatives. That would be the only very fine thin silver lining to it. A party that has aligned itself as anti austerity having to cut cut cut. It will ahve to cut just to stand still The government has put into the budget significant departmental reductions in spending, but not outlined how they will be achieved.
They will be eaten alive from the left. Blair and co had the stomach for tough government, and the majority necessary for it. Ironically they preceded over such a golden inheritance and a benign global outlook that the only tough decisions they made involved their interventionist foreign policy.
Whichever party is in power, they will struggle. The difference is that as with McDoom, Labour spent every possible pound to make it as difficult as possible for an incoming Govt.. A new Labour Govt will do the same.. They have no idea how to be fiscally responsible
Fortunately for me.. 5 yrs down the line I will have quit the UK forever and will not give a F**k what they do..
Or a begging plea from Cameron to UKIP voters thread ? ;-)
He's saving them from voting in Ed by proxy. More of a public service - the big society you could call it.
Looks like Farage has logged into Carswells twitter again...
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:15 Come home to Dave? He's at home with Nick Clegg, Ed Lywellyn and all the other dreary, technocratic centrists.
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:17 Come home to Dave? Cameron and Crosby plan to hold a pretenderendum designed to achieve an In win based on a phoney New Deal. Don't be had
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:19 "Come home to us like a sensible fellow". Sound a little patrician from the guy who was calling you fruit cakes and racists, no?
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell) 06/04/2015 19:21 "Now look. You just jolly well ought to come back here right now" demanded Cameron crossly
Has he had a drink?
He didn't even have a drink when he won the by election so I doubt it!
Only hope for Labour now is that the election period and Cameron's overtures to the Kipper wing will send wavering Red Liberals back to Labour rather than Green or non-voting. Though a Tory minority government could lead to a more sustainable Labour administration than a narrow Lab victory with the 'help' of the SNP
Parties should always try to win every election. There isn't a single post-war election that the winning party should have preferred to lose. People often talk about 1992 as one the Tories should have lost, but it was the greatest triumph the Conservatve Party ever had. It entrenched their worldview as the consensus in mainstream British politics for another 20 years and proved Labour were unelectable - not just due to Thatcher but due to taking socialism seriously.
This next parliament is going to be ugly, far far uglier for Labour than the conservatives. That would be the only very fine thin silver lining to it. A party that has aligned itself as anti austerity having to cut cut cut. It will ahve to cut just to stand still The government has put into the budget significant departmental reductions in spending, but not outlined how they will be achieved.
They will be eaten alive from the left. Blair and co had the stomach for tough government, and the majority necessary for it. Ironically they preceded over such a golden inheritance and a benign global outlook that the only tough decisions they made involved their interventionist foreign policy.
Its absurd to suggest that if problems lie ahead that you should vote for the party least able to deal with it or most likely to make a mess of it.
On the topic of good value bets. The Tory equivalent of Brent Central is fifteen miles north in St Albans. Surely with the Lib Dem effort to win Watford, the Tories must be shorter than the 1/9 consensus.
The only election communication I have had from the Conservatives this year is for the local district ward election with no mention of the general election. In contrast I have had three general election leaflets from the Lib Dems, and one each from Labour and UKIP. Make of that what you will.
The problem there is that many Labour party top bods (Cruddas, McLuskey, Balls...) want an EU referendum
Ed Balls? Source?
Several, type "Ed Balls EU referendum" into google
He is toeing the party line now since Cameron said he would have one as they need to differentiate themselves from the Tories, but look at his comments pre Cast Iron Dave's commitment
Squareroot New Zealand is a fine country and probably the closest to the UK of any nation on earth but in the middle of nowhere, it also has about the same gdp per capita as us anyway. In any case, while Key has restore the Kiwi finances, in a couple of years no doubt New Zealand Labor will return to power too
"Backlash against Carmichael is gaining traction in Zetland."
I have seen some odd links to prove points on here but a letter from a reader of the Shetland Gazette to show a 'backlash' against Carmichael wins the Victor Ludorum.
Dair has finally taken the much coveted 'Party Hack award' from Scot n'pate.
You're going to love the front page of the Nat rag.
Squareroot New Zealand is a fine country and probably the closest to the UK of any nation on earth but in the middle of nowhere, it also has about the same gdp per capita as us anyway. In any case, while Key has restore the Kiwi finances, in a couple of years no doubt New Zealand Labor will return to power too
Only hope for Labour now is that the election period and Cameron's overtures to the Kipper wing will send wavering Red Liberals back to Labour rather than Green or non-voting. Though a Tory minority government could lead to a more sustainable Labour administration than a narrow Lab victory with the 'help' of the SNP
Parties.
This next parliameny.
Whichever party is in power, they will struggle. The difference is that as with McDoom, Labour spent every possible pound to make it as difficult as possible for an incoming Govt.. A new Labour Govt will do the same.. They have no idea how to be fiscally responsible
Fortunately for me.. 5 yrs down the line I will have quit the UK forever and will not give a F**k what they do..
New Zealand is the place to go to...
They never really got punished for their sheer recklessness nature that they ran the public finances when it became clear they would lose. Any semblance of good government was thrown out of the window.
There are arguments you can thrown at Brown. His decision to pump up public spending in 2001, which was largely funded by the revenue from the city of london, and to run a sustained deficit right up to the crash.
The public finances in 2001 were in an incredibly good position. The deficit up until the crash was perfectly sustainable. Brown presented himself as a fiscal conservative, we had a golden rule that spending would be fiscally neutral over the economic cycle.
All good and well, but he (and everyone else it seemed) believed that boom and bust had ended and we had no real economic cycle anymore, just sustained perpetual economic growth. If that was true, then a small managed deficit was fine.
He allowed the debt to move from 30% of gdp (it peaked at 43% in 1996 and was dropping considerably from there on) in 2001 to rise to 38% in 2008. A totally unnecessary increase, in a period of mass employment, low unemployment, the economy firing on all cylinders and revenues flowing in like no ones business.
In 2008, as Ken Clarke has pointed out about budgets in the past, a small deficit in the good times swells out of all control when the economy turns.
Gordon Browns solution to the crash was to spend spend spend. He turned all the taps on, full. He couldnt flush money through the system quick enough.
Between 2008 and second quarter of 2010 debt jumped from 38% to 60%. By the fourth quarter of 2011 it was 70% and now sits at about 75%.
The lesson is of course, once you turn those taps on, it becomes almost impossible to turn them off.
The problem there is that many Labour party top bods (Cruddas, McLuskey, Balls...) want an EU referendum
Ed Balls? Source?
Several, type "Ed Balls EU referendum" into google
He is toeing the party line now since Cameron said he would have one as they need to differentiate themselves from the Tories, but look at his comments pre Cast Iron Dave's commitment
Ah, I see. There is a difference between "thinking a thing is a good idea", "wanting a thing to happen", and "working towards making a thing happen". I think Cruddas would work to achieve a EU referendum, but Balls would not necessarily do so.
Anything Blair puts his name to can only cause harm. He is most probably the most toxic politician since Thatcher.
However both these 'toxic' politicians managed to win three general elections, and win them with two or more of them with three figure majorities.
Just think the actual width and depth of support you need to win with over a hundred majority. Cameron and Miliband are fighting over who can possibly scrape enough to be largest party. Each of them would consider 300 to be a breathtaking and resounding endorsement of their policies etc. Lady Thatcher got 397 seats the second time of asking. Blair managed 418 on the first and barely changed the second.
"Backlash against Carmichael is gaining traction in Zetland."
I have seen some odd links to prove points on here but a letter from a reader of the Shetland Gazette to show a 'backlash' against Carmichael wins the Victor Ludorum.
Dair has finally taken the much coveted 'Party Hack award' from Scot n'pate.
You're going to love the front page of the Nat rag.
I saw it earlier and I agree, the second bullet point is simply bizarre.
I have mixed feelings about The National, it's made a good, solid start and has the potential to become a decent paper. But I don't trust The Herald team to avoid the trap of turning the whole thing into a Shortbread Tin instead of a Scottish equivalent of The Mail.
Scotland knows who is to blame for its health outcomes. The Labour Party.
Health outcomes are long term consequences, you don't change them in 5 years. You don't change them dramatically in less than 20 years. 60 years of Labour policy of "Make poor people poorer, make sick people sicer" takes a lot of work to undo.
Comments
http://www.shetlandtimes.co.uk/2015/04/06/things-dont-just-happen-judith-dumont#.VSLcjuIOfko.twitter
https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-spending.htm
But there is a big UKIP billboard at Upminster Bridge, which is in my constituency, I noticed it today
The poster is a photo of a big coffee cup full of money with "Megabucks" written on it
"we will make big business pay their fair share of tax" (paraphrasing)
Obv a play on Starbucks.. I didn't really get it at first, though was jogging off a slight hangover!
Not UKIPs main message so a bit odd maybe? First bit of advertising I have seen around here from any party
However in Witham constituency there are few big Patel posters and a couple of small, generic, "Vote Labour" estate-agent-type boards.
The was a big Tory poster on the way into Braintree but it's blown down and not been repaired.
" but it's blown down and not been repaired."
Tory cutbacks I reckon?
Once upon a time labour had it.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/04/coffee-shots-election-fatigue-sets-in/
:-o
"Backlash against Carmichael is gaining traction in Zetland."
I have seen some odd links to prove points on here but a letter from a reader of the Shetland Gazette to show a 'backlash' against Carmichael wins the Victor Ludorum.
Dair has finally taken the much coveted 'Party Hack award' from Scot n'pate.
"When Thatcher’s big chance came with Maggie, she wasn’t about to let it slip: she held on to the calf for 13 minutes, solicitously asking the assembled photographers whether they had all the pictures they needed. Denis Thatcher famously muttered: “Be careful, dear, or you’ll have a dead calf on your hands.” Poor Maggie does look rather lifeless in one picture, but Thatcher got away with it: apparently the calf passed away not long after the photocall."
I wonder if it was true?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/06/david-cameron-lamb-photos-thatcher-calf-nick-clegg-hedgehog
Labour brainwashing.
Does anyone take him seriously?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3027731/Come-home-Cameron-issues-impassioned-plea-Ukip-supporters-vote-Tory-Miliband-Number-10.html
Or a begging plea from Cameron to UKIP voters thread ;-)
I think most Kippers on PB are Ex-labour voters,I could be wrong.
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell)
06/04/2015 19:15
Come home to Dave? He's at home with Nick Clegg, Ed Lywellyn and all the other dreary, technocratic centrists.
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell)
06/04/2015 19:17
Come home to Dave? Cameron and Crosby plan to hold a pretenderendum designed to achieve an In win based on a phoney New Deal. Don't be had
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell)
06/04/2015 19:19
"Come home to us like a sensible fellow". Sound a little patrician from the guy who was calling you fruit cakes and racists, no?
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell)
06/04/2015 19:21
"Now look. You just jolly well ought to come back here right now" demanded Cameron crossly
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/04/coffee-shots-election-fatigue-sets-in/
It's one of the weakest arguments in UKIP's arsenal, not least because I disagree with them that they would lose such a fight, if only they would actually fight it when the time comes rather than apparently planning to spend the whole time moaning about technicalities.
Though a Tory minority government could lead to a more sustainable Labour administration than a narrow Lab victory with the 'help' of the SNP
666 minutes
........................................................................
Possibly a devil of a projection.
We need to have proper enforcement of minimum wage, with constabularies told that they need to take action on enfringement and the CPS need to prosecute.
We need to make sure that local authorities are enforcing occupancy issues in housing with landlords that sneak through the cracks with dozens of young men to a house.
We need to have a system of welfare that requires a minimum time of paying in before you can pay out. That child benefit and working tax credits are paid only to children resident here.
Perfectly acceptable under EU rules. The EU doesnt care what we do, as long as we dont treat the citizens of other member states differently to how we treat our own.
Oh, and enforce equal opportunities in areas that are uncomfortable. If a company is only advertising for staff in polish language newspapers, it is almost certainly breaking legislation.
Or as Peter Hitchens puts it...
"Imagine what would happen to a restaurant which, when you ordered steak, took an age to bring you a plate of lukewarm baked beans, accompanied by a platoon of spin doctors to tell you that this is what you really wanted, and to point out that the establishment next door was even worse?"
Look at his track record. Then throw your toys out the pram because you don't like his message.
I think that's right. To date, Cameron seems to have been at his best when his back is against the wall, so I'm hoping he'll do that on EU changes. If he comes out and argues for sensible things, then it will be too politically embarrassing for Angela Merkel to oppose them, especially when she has her own eurosceptic opposition to face off. Things like supremacy of national courts over Brussels and limits on unemployed beggars being able to freely migrate should be so popular we will be bound to get them if we push hard enough.
Being a single subject bore isn't something that appeals to me. And there are too many single braincell tweeters who are incapable of having an informed 140 character exchange.
'I take issue with the second one. However much one might dislike how it will be framed, any referendum offered will presumably contain the option to leave, so it is not a pretenderendum at all, he's just whinging that what will be 'offered' from Europe will be spun and the media will be hostile, and that's not the same thing at all.
It's one of the weakest arguments in UKIP's arsenal, not least because I disagree with them that they would lose such a fight, if only they would actually fight it when the time comes rather than apparently planning to spend the whole time moaning about technicalities'
It's Carswell's weakest argument for defecting. In fact its no argument at all.
A referendum gives a vote, the only way you are going to get that is by voting Tory.
The public are not particularly energised to leave the EU, which makes not only makes any referendum exit vote difficult to achieve but also makes any UKIP majority unlikely as well (even some sort of Kingmaker result looks beyond them).
If you want to live to see an EU referendum it would be crazy not to vote Tory in 2015.
The usefulness of a model isn't in its accuracy, it's in its variance: a clock that is always exactly 30 minutes fast is useful, a clock that varies between 10 minutes fast and 10 minutes slow is useless, even if it's right on average.
My only problem with Rod is not that persisted withe the model for so long: it's that he stopped. If he'd kept going, we could tell how (in)accurate the model was and when.
Would the principled, patriotic lions (or anti-TPDs) please stand up.
They will be eaten alive from the left. Blair and co had the stomach for tough government, and the majority necessary for it. Ironically they preceded over such a golden inheritance and a benign global outlook that the only tough decisions they made involved their interventionist foreign policy.
So you think the Onion is secure because they are two points ahead years before another referendum. Mmmm.
It does strike me if Salmond was capable (and he was) of taking YES from 30 to 45 in the space of two years (and he did) then the sainted lady might well manage to push them over the top over the next few years.
Finally the lasy from Shtland may not represent a surge against the ludicrous Carmichael on he own but a) there should be one and b) it was a bloody good letter!
@hendopolis: GUARDIAN: Cameron's EU vote threatens chaos - Blair #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers http://t.co/3zHBGQbEwC
Fortunately for me.. 5 yrs down the line I will have quit the UK forever and will not give a F**k what they do..
New Zealand is the place to go to...
'Will this do Labour's cause good or harm?
@hendopolis: GUARDIAN: Cameron's EU vote threatens chaos - Blair #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers http://t.co/3zHBGQbEwC'
Fortunately he was blocked when he wanted to give us the Euro and these days he has as much credibility as David Icke.
Somebody should tell him to go back to stuffing his pockets..
David Cameron's plan to 'destroy' the Liberal Democrats
Interview: The Prime Minister tells the Telegraph that the road to a Conservative victory will run through Nick Clegg's heartlands
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11518408/David-Camerons-plan-to-destroy-the-Liberal-Democrats.html
But middle England still listens to Blair.
He is toeing the party line now since Cameron said he would have one as they need to differentiate themselves from the Tories, but look at his comments pre Cast Iron Dave's commitment
Looks at the second bullet point
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CB7-b4pWMAErGg8.jpg
but not on fixing the problem...
@thetimes: Tomorrow’s front page: Yorkshire teens slip net to Syria http://t.co/cCwP55GGam
There are arguments you can thrown at Brown. His decision to pump up public spending in 2001, which was largely funded by the revenue from the city of london, and to run a sustained deficit right up to the crash.
The public finances in 2001 were in an incredibly good position. The deficit up until the crash was perfectly sustainable. Brown presented himself as a fiscal conservative, we had a golden rule that spending would be fiscally neutral over the economic cycle.
All good and well, but he (and everyone else it seemed) believed that boom and bust had ended and we had no real economic cycle anymore, just sustained perpetual economic growth. If that was true, then a small managed deficit was fine.
He allowed the debt to move from 30% of gdp (it peaked at 43% in 1996 and was dropping considerably from there on) in 2001 to rise to 38% in 2008. A totally unnecessary increase, in a period of mass employment, low unemployment, the economy firing on all cylinders and revenues flowing in like no ones business.
In 2008, as Ken Clarke has pointed out about budgets in the past, a small deficit in the good times swells out of all control when the economy turns.
Gordon Browns solution to the crash was to spend spend spend. He turned all the taps on, full. He couldnt flush money through the system quick enough.
Between 2008 and second quarter of 2010 debt jumped from 38% to 60%. By the fourth quarter of 2011 it was 70% and now sits at about 75%.
The lesson is of course, once you turn those taps on, it becomes almost impossible to turn them off.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11518049/Campaign-calculus-The-Conservatives-are-running-out-of-time.html
Just think the actual width and depth of support you need to win with over a hundred majority. Cameron and Miliband are fighting over who can possibly scrape enough to be largest party. Each of them would consider 300 to be a breathtaking and resounding endorsement of their policies etc. Lady Thatcher got 397 seats the second time of asking. Blair managed 418 on the first and barely changed the second.
Toxic my a*se.
I have mixed feelings about The National, it's made a good, solid start and has the potential to become a decent paper. But I don't trust The Herald team to avoid the trap of turning the whole thing into a Shortbread Tin instead of a Scottish equivalent of The Mail.
Health outcomes are long term consequences, you don't change them in 5 years. You don't change them dramatically in less than 20 years. 60 years of Labour policy of "Make poor people poorer, make sick people sicer" takes a lot of work to undo.