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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Easter Monday afternoon polling round-up
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Easter Monday afternoon polling round-up
Latest YouGov Scotland poll. Independence Q: Yes 46% No 48% DK/WNV 6%
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@TSEofPB: Sun/YouGov Welsh poll
Lab 40% (nc) Con 27% (+2) UKIP 13% (-1) PC 9% (-2) LD 6% (+1)
The Tories have indeed hit people earning between about £40k [ where HRT starts ] to £120k very hard.
Many in this bracket also lost CB. The "squeezed middle" as Edward Miliband said so succinctly.
Once your earnings go above £150k, the Tories are indeed your friend. 50% tax becomes 45%. So if you earn £1m, you have been given £50k back by Osborne !
malcolmg said:
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So it is £100K before it kicks in.
Slightly over actually because it applies to your adjusted net income which is inevitably complicated like all of our tax code. Those earning over £120K pay tax on all of their earnings.
Thanks david
Quite brave to predict no change in seat situation in Wales.
If today`s Youguv(Wales) is correct,changes from GE2010 are:
Labour(+4)Con(+1),Lib(-15),PC(-2),UKIP(+10).
No. They will choose to help people who earn more than £150k.
People who earn more than £150k pay a lot more tax than those who earn (say) £60k.
Huh. Look what I've found. It's Ed's sheet of paper.
It's a WYSIWYG election. I doubt any Party will score more than a couple of percentage points above or below their current poll ratings.
I'm not sure if that will necessarily make Labour the largest Party. That's highly dependent on the SNP performance.
But however the SNP do, the next Parliament looks like being well and truly hung.
Look what I found.
Cameron`s sheet
_ _ _____ _ _ _
| | | | | __ \ | (_) (_)
| | __ _| |__ ___ _ _ _ __ | |__) |__ | |_ ___ _ ___ ___
| | / _` | '_ \ / _ \| | | | '__| | ___/ _ \| | |/ __| |/ _ \/ __|
| |___| (_| | |_) | (_) | |_| | | | | | (_) | | | (__| | __/\__ \
|______\__,_|_.__/ \___/ \__,_|_| |_| \___/|_|_|\___|_|\___||___/
Watch debate on TV.
He explicitly linked the increase in top end stamp duty (by 200bps?) to the reduction in income tax.
So if you earn £1m and living in a £4m house he charged you £80,000 and gave you back £50,000.
When he wasn't being as vague as usual, Ed Millicent defined the "squeezed middle" as people either side of the average income, which would be about £20k to about £35k.
50k to 120k is roughly the 70th to 99th percentiles. Squeezed middle - NOT. That's wellish off people who were clobbered by Mr Broon and have been clobbered, and not unclobbered (eg loss of personal tax allowance from £100k) by Mr Cameron.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11848303
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_368612.pdf
http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/03/valleys-of-trouble-labours-difficulties-in-their-welsh-heartland/
So cost on sale is £240,000 vs £350,000 in saved income tax ASSUMING (and few achieve this) sustained earnings of >£1m pa for 7 years.
So, according to Charles people earning £1m who have not moved house are £50,000 a year better off. But apparently they'll all work harder. Or something. And let's not forget the reductions in the taxes on dividends that many top earners will also enjoy. The fact is that the last few years have been astonishingly good for the very richest people in the UK (and elsewhere):
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2012/08/qe-the-ultimate-subsidy-for-the-rich/
The Romans regularly beat barbarians because they decided when and where to fight.
If one person in a household earns between £50k - £60k
one child -marginal rate of tax > 50%
three children = 65%
Between £100k and £120k - MRT = 60%
Above £150k : MRT = 45%
Tory fair play !
Osborne has set the tax to 5% more than Labour ever thought appropriate to set it. Even if it gets cut to 40% next time (no guarantee of that) then that would only be cutting it back to Gordon Brown's preferred tax rate.
Deciding to empty-chair himself sounds like a pretty astute move towards the post-politics speech circuit.
The swing from Con to Lab since 2010 is only 1.5%.
Above £150k : MRT = 40%
Labour fair play !
Why didn't Labour ever charge more than 40%? The Laffer Curve has been known about for decades that's why, Osborne cut the deficit by implementing a competitive tax rate that was both higher than Labour's real rate the entire period they were in government and lower than the French would charge that got taxes into the UK thus cutting the deficit.
Crosby predicted regular crossover (no more Labour leads) In January.
His model had the Tories 6 points up all the time now.
This was really rather funny, in an unfortunate sort of way ...
I meant Lynton Crosby not Rod Crosby.
His model`s such a joke,I prefer not to comment on it.
Am I the only one who thinks of Batman?
There is no evidence that the tax revenue curve has a single turning point. Also I'm amazed that every single proponent of the Laffer curve always an ever believes that we are on the right hand side of the curve.
Beginning of last week, I was terrified that the Tories might be about to break away, but with this weekend's polls (showing the Tories only slightly nudging forwards at best) I'm starting to feel a bit relieved. Though as others have pointed out, it could be that Easter weekend polls aren't that reliable, so we'll have to wait a few more days probably to be sure that shift hasn't happened.
It is total dishonesty to claim that Labour ever charged more than 40%. In their 13 whole years in power they only ever charged a top rate of 40% - for a reason.
Neither Arfon (Caernarfon) nor Ynys Mon have dumped a sitting MP since ... Lady Megan Lloyd George lost Anglesey in 1951, nearly three quarters of a century ago !!!
When the seat has changed hands, it has done so when the previous incumbent stood down (or in the case of Keith Best was hauled off to prison).
Overwhelmingly, odds are that Albert Owen and Hywel Francis will both be back after May 2015.
Always remember in the West Wales seats, the candidates matter much more than the party. Guto Bebb is safe for the Tories in Aberconwy, for much the same reason.
Neither Labour nor Plaid Cymru are doing well enough to make many gains in Wales.
On the other hand, I am quite pleasantly surprised by Miliband's approval ratings particularly amongst Labour supporters.
Speaking of the Kardashians
Or are you pedantically squirming that Labour was only in power for 12 whole tax years (and all but a few weeks of a 13th) in which they only ever charged 40%?
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3027440/Labour-claims-Cameron-secret-plan-cut-taxes-millionaires-parties-trade-blows-spending-plans.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
"Okay, it was a serious breach of the rules, but the culprit’s been punished enough."
I think we can all now relax and take it as a certainty that Nicola has been economical with the truth. Carmichael has admitted it's someone in his department and even Biggles doesn't think it was fake. Sorry Nicola but time to come clean.
Labour is a hollow drum, no policies, no principles, no point; just the noise of bygone days.
Or did Osborne inherit a situation where Labour the previous government had only ever charged 40% in any of their whole years in power?
The way in which the story is being backpedalled is most interesting.
"Come off it Roger. There's is absolutely no way that Sturgeon, both a professional lawyer and politician, would lie. Get real."
It's the way you tell 'em!!
"Labour is a hollow drum, no policies, no principles, no point; just the noise of bygone days."
Very Churchillian!
Shouldn't you be on the sponsored bogle stroll for Ludlow's fifth Conservative Club?
I'll go a couple of bricks a mile.
Some may be looking at the money they have in the bank; your assumption that they are all doing that, rather than acting in the best interests of their businesses, says more about you than them.
Labour's attack on them shows exactly the anti-business agenda they have. Which will be rather dangerous for the country.
(It has also been seen before with Labour's attack on JCB)
I believe the most likely seats to change are Cardiff North, Cardiff Central and Brecon & Radnor, in that order.
Whilst the Cardiff seats look very vulnerable, remember Labour is in power both in the Assembly and in the Council offices in Cardiff, and they are having to take some unpopular decisions locally. It is not a slam dunk.
In Wales, neither the Labour Party, nor the Tories, nor Plaid Cymru are doing well enough to make any big gains.
They can however simply feast on the carcass of the LibDems.
UKIP did very, very well in the Euros, but their big chance will be in the next Welsh Assembly elections.
Oh, no ! Guess what Tories are saying ? He was sacked last week.
Beautiful day for it too.
Osborne was placing an "open" sign in the UK's window just at the point when high earners in France were most worried.
The growth in the French population in London has a testimony to the success of the policy (although it hasn't helped house prices and rents)
No I didn't confuse Moniker with a Sturgeon fancier. In fact I was going to reply with a lawyer joke but these Nats are so messianic about her that I thought they may be so incensed they'd do a Charlie Hebdo so I rowed back
Not really. Year one income was low because Brown gave everyone a year to reduce their exposure; year two the income went up; year three it went down again because Osborne gave everyone a year to prepare ways in which they could delay their exposure until the rate was reduced. There was absolutely no evidence with which to make a decision. It was a leap of faith.
Osborne was placing an "open" sign in the UK's window just at the point when high earners in France were most worried.
The growth in the French population in London has a testimony to the success of the policy (although it hasn't helped house prices and rents)
Actually, the polls were very tight:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2012#19_March_2012_to_22_April_2012http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2012#19_March_2012_to_22_April_2012
So clearly Osborne saw something that others could not see. It's amazing that none of this has come out. And what you are saying is that the French would have swallowed the 75 pence rate and stayed in France if UK income tax had remained at 50 pence. Wow, just wow.
Still plenty genuinely undecided or declining to say. But, considering they hold the seat, surprisingly few admitting to voting LibDem this time. A significant number of former LibDems saying they probably won't vote. Them holding anything like 30 seats is going to need a lot of shy LibDems....
Also hearing that the Tories are doing much better in Plymouth than they have any right to expect.
Now Labour want to take a leap of faith backwards. What evidence is there to support it?