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  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Lilburne, no sofa or bed in the computer room, though ;)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    1) the next debate will be the biggest political event of its day.

    2) Ed Miliband will be aware of the dangers and presumably will be planning for them. He has no competition for the sensible statesman role.

    3) as Roger says, any publicity is good publicity. He is unlikely to do himself too much harm in the English battleground; he is very likely to exceed expectations.

    4) Scotland is a different matter entirely. He may well drive the final nail into the coffins of many Scottish Labour MPs. But if he thinks they're goners already, that's a price worth paying for the chance of winning votes in England.

    I think 4 is key, SLab is done, it is no more. Milliband should persue a strategy to sacrifice SLab to gain seats in England as that is where it counts.
    In case you missed it last night:

    @PickardJE: Introducing Labour's "Living Dead" - its 40 beleagured Scotland MPs. http://t.co/57T14BUgVp “I’m now set to Defcon f***ed,” says one.

    The article is well worth reading.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited April 2015
    Roger said:

    The challengers debate should be fun next week. A lefty love-in with a grinning Farage collecting Cammeron's votes from the other side.

    Unless Michael Green can organize a programme called 'one careful owner'on another channel it's difficult to see how Cameron's going to come out of this undamaged. If there's a silver lining it's that the Libs might come out of it even worse

    You really think the challengers debate will be 'fun'? Apparently a paltry 7m people claim to have watched last time which probably means about 1m really saw the whole thing. I like politics & I switched over after 30 minutes of utter boredom. The challengers debate could be lower than 5m or 15% of the likely turnout. Most of them will probably be kippers so expect a big win for Farage meme which in reality will mean nothing except publicity. Unless someone sparks the thing up early on its more of the same monotony.

    As for Mr Michael Green, Kate's due on 25th April but second babies often come early. Labourites will be praying not ;-)

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Good morning, everyone.

    I dislike this widespread postal voting. If someone has a medical or other valid reason (being in the army and posted overseas, for example) then fair enough, otherwise they should just go vote in person.

    Indeed, although I think being out of the country on holiday or business is fair enough. Early voting in person, like they have in the USA, would be preferable but it would mean local council staff having to do some work.

    I find it risible that we talk about Labour having lower turnout among its supporters. Anyone who can't be arsed to go and vote once every five years can't be counted as a supporter, in my view. Most of them live in city constituencies so the polling station really will be just round the corner.

    Most postal voters are elderly and therefore more likely to be Tory or UKIP inclined.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    MikeK said:

    What Zero Hours can actually mean:

    AlterAlterMedia retweeted
    Barnaby Spen ‏@Barnabyspeak Apr 1
    nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours

    The problem there sounds like an absolute tit of a employer lacking either basic consideration or elementary telephone-using skills. It's a fool's errand trying to anticipate and legislate against all the possible ways a wanker employer can act like a wanker - what the government should be doing instead is paying a reasonable level of unemployment benefit without a lot of judgemental micro-management so that the employee isn't scared to tell them where to stick their job.
    Alternatively, she could look for another job. It's not like she doesn't have the time because she has a full time job.

    If you really have problems with your employer you can almost always leave and claim JSA - bullying, or not getting paid, for example. But surely the thing you should do if you don't like your job is look for another one?

    And the reasons Jobcentres micromanage claimants is that many of them just will not do enough, or the right things, to look for work.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718

    antifrank said:

    In Portstewart I often get a stronger mobile signal from Donegal and find myself unintentionally internationally roaming, which is very annoying.

    You need 3, Ireland is one of those countries included in your plan.

    One thing that aggravates me is that the Channel Islands count as "overseas" which means even a text is expensive.
    And I've found myself in France along the S Coast.
    France is free on 3 as well. Don't know if you get a good French signal in the CI though.My last couple of holidays in the EU I have just gone with the EU roaming charges, and use an app to limit my data usage to a few MB a day. If you need to make a call you can use Skype when you have WiFi. But then I make and receive relatively few calls and texts.

    Having said that I can't remember whether Jersey and Guernsey (which are foreign countries after all) are in the EU or EEA or not.
    Hmm. I've always been pleased with O2, but you are making me wonder about 3. Contract anniversary is a bit away, so time for research/development.

    I've a sister in the CI, so there's no problem with ringing at off peak times, although if I need a daytime call, then, as you say, Skype is the answer.

    I THINK the CI's are in the EEA but they are definitely not in the EU.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Roger said:

    The challengers debate should be fun next week. A lefty love-in with a grinning Farage collecting Cammeron's votes from the other side.

    Unless Michael Green can organize a programme called 'one careful owner'on another channel it's difficult to see how Cameron's going to come out of this undamaged. If there's a silver lining it's that the Libs might come out of it even worse

    You really think the challengers debate will be 'fun'? Apparently a paltry 7m people claim to have watched last time which probably means about 1m really saw the whole thing. I like politics & I switched over after 30 minutes of utter boredom. The challengers debate could be lower than 5m or 15% of the likely turnout. Most of them will probably be kippers so expect a big win for Farage meme which in reality will mean nothing except publicity. Unless someone sparks the thing up early on its more of the same monotony.

    As for Mr Michael Green, Kate's due on 25th April but second babies often come early. Labourites will be praying not ;-)

    A "paltry" 7m?

    That implies a rather patronising view of the electorate. Anything that reaches - let's say 5m of that 7m are voters - 15% of the electorate - must be welcomed in terms of getting people involved.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    MikeK said:

    What Zero Hours can actually mean:

    AlterAlterMedia retweeted
    Barnaby Spen ‏@Barnabyspeak Apr 1
    nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours

    There is nothing EdM or any other Labour figure can do to prevent Labour being massacred in Scotland. So I doubt Ed will bother too much about serious debate with Sturgeon. That said, if she attacks him constantly it will show English voters that the SNP and Labour are not hand in glove.

    The really interesting exchanges for most voters will be Ed v Nigel. Ed is clearly vulnerable on immigration, but does have the opportunity to highlight Nigel's Thatcherism. That may give traditional Labour voters thinking about UKIP pause for thought, while it will appeal to UKIP-inclined Tories: a tasty double whammy for Ed if he can pull it off. If, of course, being the operative word.

    Having done OK against Paxman and the 7-way debate Ed is probably due a disaster. And we know that whatever happens the Sun, Express, Mail, Telegraph and Times headlines are already written.

    Let's hope nige highlights Labours search parties and open borders policy without checks and without building any infrastructure to cater for all these imported labour votes which has resulted in huge strains across public services.

    Nowt to do with Labour of course... As always. It's the savage cuts innit?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    What Zero Hours can actually mean:

    AlterAlterMedia retweeted
    Barnaby Spen ‏@Barnabyspeak Apr 1
    nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours

    Does it not occur to you that this is notewoithy because it is an exception rather than the rule?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    Mr. Lilburne, no sofa or bed in the computer room, though ;)

    You can probably buy the electronics to use you PC as a monitor, over WiFi.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    edited April 2015

    MikeK said:

    What Zero Hours can actually mean:

    AlterAlterMedia retweeted
    Barnaby Spen ‏@Barnabyspeak Apr 1
    nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours

    The problem there sounds like an absolute tit of a employer lacking either basic consideration or elementary telephone-using skills. It's a fool's errand trying to anticipate and legislate against all the possible ways a wanker employer can act like a wanker - what the government should be doing instead is paying a reasonable level of unemployment benefit without a lot of judgemental micro-management so that the employee isn't scared to tell them where to stick their job.
    Alternatively, she could look for another job. It's not like she doesn't have the time because she has a full time job.

    If you really have problems with your employer you can almost always leave and claim JSA - bullying, or not getting paid, for example. But surely the thing you should do if you don't like your job is look for another one?

    And the reasons Jobcentres micromanage claimants is that many of them just will not do enough, or the right things, to look for work.

    Can you get JSA if you leave a job until it's proved that constructive dismissal or other employer malpractice took place?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    This may have already been posted but John Denham is sticking the boot into Chukka and Rachael

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11517110/John-Denham-new-MPs-should-not-be-promoted-to-front-bench.html
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    Postal voting could make polls less accurate if respondents have a late change of mind and tell the pollster they voted differently or of regret.

    Am I right in thinking they're not allowed to ask how someone has actually voted?
    Why on earth would that be the case? they can and do ask that - see Exit Polls
    The only restriction that I'm aware of is publishing exit polls prior to the poll being closed being illegal.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    MikeK said:

    What Zero Hours can actually mean:

    AlterAlterMedia retweeted
    Barnaby Spen ‏@Barnabyspeak Apr 1
    nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours

    The problem there sounds like an absolute tit of a employer lacking either basic consideration or elementary telephone-using skills. It's a fool's errand trying to anticipate and legislate against all the possible ways a wanker employer can act like a wanker - what the government should be doing instead is paying a reasonable level of unemployment benefit without a lot of judgemental micro-management so that the employee isn't scared to tell them where to stick their job.
    Alternatively, she could look for another job. It's not like she doesn't have the time because she has a full time job.

    If you really have problems with your employer you can almost always leave and claim JSA - bullying, or not getting paid, for example. But surely the thing you should do if you don't like your job is look for another one?

    And the reasons Jobcentres micromanage claimants is that many of them just will not do enough, or the right things, to look for work.

    Can you get JSA if you leave a job until it's proved that constructive dismissal or other employer malpractice took place?
    Yes, in cases of LV (leaving voluntarily) JSA is paid until the decision is made, and any disallowance only starts from that point onwards - which may be after you signed off. Same goes if you are fired.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,137
    Hodges claiming in Telegraph this morning that Tories have big announcement lined up for 2nd half of this week, that "will redefine the Tory offer".

    Should be interesting. More rental social-housing sales? IHT uplift? something on income tax?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Purseybear

    "The challengers debate could be lower than 5m or 15% of the likely turnout."

    Have you any idea how much a one hour ad with 5,000,000 viewers would cost you?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Lilburne, a costly faff!

    I may well stay up here, and then either go to bed or watch the results roll in rapidly on the TV later on.

    I would like to see the Balls result. I think he'll win, but it's not certain.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    edited April 2015

    Good morning, everyone.

    I dislike this widespread postal voting. If someone has a medical or other valid reason (being in the army and posted overseas, for example) then fair enough, otherwise they should just go vote in person.

    Indeed, although I think being out of the country on holiday or business is fair enough. Early voting in person, like they have in the USA, would be preferable but it would mean local council staff having to do some work.

    I find it risible that we talk about Labour having lower turnout among its supporters. Anyone who can't be arsed to go and vote once every five years can't be counted as a supporter, in my view. Most of them live in city constituencies so the polling station really will be just round the corner.

    Most postal voters are elderly and therefore more likely to be Tory or UKIP inclined.

    The funny thing is you probably think that is a bad thing, having drunk the 60s kool aid, but wisdom comes with age.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/elder/8720182/Wisdom-comes-with-age-study-shows.html

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2432221/Wisdom-really-does-come-age-Older-peoples-knowledge-experience-means-make-better-decisions.html

    Time to raise the voting age in accordance with current scientific understanding. The left thrives on exploiting the ignorant.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    MikeK said:

    What Zero Hours can actually mean:

    AlterAlterMedia retweeted
    Barnaby Spen ‏@Barnabyspeak Apr 1
    nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours

    The problem there sounds like an absolute tit of a employer lacking either basic consideration or elementary telephone-using skills. It's a fool's errand trying to anticipate and legislate against all the possible ways a wanker employer can act like a wanker - what the government should be doing instead is paying a reasonable level of unemployment benefit without a lot of judgemental micro-management so that the employee isn't scared to tell them where to stick their job.
    Great. Encourage people to lounge around on the taxpayers hard earned coin.

    Labour's beloved Benefit Culture.
    You don't do any good by continually searching for someone to blame so the government can find a new way to meddle. The people who know best are the people doing the job and the people paying to have the job done. A few people may prefer not to work in a free market economy with a basic safety net, but the vast majority would rather work and increase their standard of living. The cost of paying that small minority will be tiny compared to the costs of this constant cycle of micro-managing the lives of the poor then meddling in employment contracts to try to repair the damage you did by taking away their leverage.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Roger said:

    Purseybear

    "The challengers debate could be lower than 5m or 15% of the likely turnout."

    Have you any idea how much a one hour ad with 5,000,000 viewers would cost you?

    You think a challengers political debate equates to an ad? I hope for the customers sake you're not in advertising.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    edited April 2015

    Roger said:

    se

    You really think the challengers debate will be 'fun'?...I like politics & I switched over [on the first debate] after 30 minutes of utter boredom.
    I thought it was great.

    There is nothing EdM or any other Labour figure can do to prevent Labour being massacred in Scotland. So I doubt Ed will bother too much about serious debate with Sturgeon. That said, if she attacks him constantly it will show English voters that the SNP and Labour are not hand in glove.

    Making the attacks about him being too weak to stand up to her easy to rebut if he does ok, and he has shown himself to be well prepared and not unlikable (if a bit weird), as well as reduce fear of Lab and the SNP dictating to the rest of England all the time.
    MikeK said:

    Mrecisions.

    Atmosphere and excitement is all very well if one can stay awake all night. I can't, so I shalln't.
    Agreed. I'm beginning to regret agreeing to help with the local count as a result, particular with work the next morning still.

    So little time left for postal votes, yet no manifestos are out. Why are the main parties so stupid?

    If potentially millions of us are willing and ready to cast our votes prior to hearing what the purported plans are via the manifestos - possibly through cynicism about what is in them being followed? Or already satisfied they know all they need to already? - then it isn't the parties who are the stupid ones, surely?

    I dislike this widespread postal voting. If someone has a medical or other valid reason (being in the army and posted overseas, for example) then fair enough, otherwise they should just go vote in person.

    Yes indeed. I don't like sounding condescending, but this is one of those area where I struggle not to. It's like with electronic voting, presented as the panacea to all our ills and will magically increase turnout, but if the only reason someone will not vote is because they cannot do it electronically, is that the type of person we care about exercising their right to vote or not? Given if someone physically cannot make it there are several options to ensure they do not lose their rights, if someone chooses to say 'Unless I can vote from my computer, I am not walking a couple hundred yards to do so' (yes some stations will be a lot further than that, but on average most are not at a difficult distance), that feels like a choice they have made and I don't see why it is necessary to bend over backwards to accommodate laziness, when we have already taken measures to ensure those who need extra consideration to vote can do so. Similarly, if no need for it, why a postal vote?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    FalseFlag said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I dislike this widespread postal voting. If someone has a medical or other valid reason (being in the army and posted overseas, for example) then fair enough, otherwise they should just go vote in person.

    Indeed, although I think being out of the country on holiday or business is fair enough. Early voting in person, like they have in the USA, would be preferable but it would mean local council staff having to do some work.

    I find it risible that we talk about Labour having lower turnout among its supporters. Anyone who can't be arsed to go and vote once every five years can't be counted as a supporter, in my view. Most of them live in city constituencies so the polling station really will be just round the corner.

    Most postal voters are elderly and therefore more likely to be Tory or UKIP inclined.

    The funny thing is you probably think that is a bad thing, having drunk the 60s kool aid, but wisdom comes with age.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/elder/8720182/Wisdom-comes-with-age-study-shows.html

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2432221/Wisdom-really-does-come-age-Older-peoples-knowledge-experience-means-make-better-decisions.html

    Time to raise the voting age in accordance with current scientific understanding. The left thrives on exploiting the ignorant.
    Is there any evidence that postal voters are likely to be older ones?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Alistair said:

    Dair said:


    No, not free reign.

    None of the participants will be allowed to address Tory or Liberal policy as they do not have the Right to Reply.

    Dem's the rules.

    Really? I thought they were given the opportunity to appear at this debate.
    I thought they weren't invited and it was set up specifically as a Challengers debate, initially with the four parties but Ed wanted to be added.

    Obviously if Con and Lib Dem were given an invite their policy is up for debate but I'm 99% sure they weren't asked so they are off limits.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    MikeK said:

    What Zero Hours can actually mean:

    AlterAlterMedia retweeted
    Barnaby Spen ‏@Barnabyspeak Apr 1
    nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours

    The problem there sounds like an absolute tit of a employer lacking either basic consideration or elementary telephone-using skills. It's a fool's errand trying to anticipate and legislate against all the possible ways a wanker employer can act like a wanker - what the government should be doing instead is paying a reasonable level of unemployment benefit without a lot of judgemental micro-management so that the employee isn't scared to tell them where to stick their job.
    Great. Encourage people to lounge around on the taxpayers hard earned coin.

    Labour's beloved Benefit Culture.
    Citizens Income is not a left wing policy.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    What Zero Hours can actually mean:

    AlterAlterMedia retweeted
    Barnaby Spen ‏@Barnabyspeak Apr 1
    nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours

    Does it not occur to you that this is notewoithy because it is an exception rather than the rule?
    I'm intrigued... is there a way she can check whether she's needed from home?
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited April 2015

    Postal voting could make polls less accurate if respondents have a late change of mind and tell the pollster they voted differently or of regret.

    Am I right in thinking they're not allowed to ask how someone has actually voted?
    Why on earth would that be the case? they can and do ask that - see Exit Polls
    The only restriction that I'm aware of is publishing exit polls prior to the poll being closed being illegal.

    'The Representation of the People Act 2002 inserted a section 66A into the initial 1983 of the same name and this read as follows. It is a criminal offence 'to publish, before a poll is closed, any statement about the way in which voters have voted in that election, where this statement is, or might reasonably be taken to be, based on information given by voters after they voted.'

    The 2002 Act specifically makes it an offence 'to publish, before a poll is closed, any forecast – including any estimate – of that election result, if the forecast is based on exit poll information from voters, or which might reasonably be taken to be based on it.

    These laws apply to both Parliamentary and local elections, elections to the Welsh Assembly and to by-elections. The 2002 Act applies both to exit polls conducted to focus on voting in a particular constituency or ward and to voting patterns nationally. Furthermore, the publication of exit polls is also prohibited during voting for European Parliamentary elections.

    The Times narrowly escaped legal action when they published an opinion poll in June 2004 on how people had voted in areas that had used all-postal ballots. Since the poll was published in the newspaper during the European Parliamentary elections that it referred to, the Electoral Commission (an independent watchdog on elections) alerted the Crown Prosecution Service. The Electoral Commission stated that publishing such an opinion poll amounted to publishing an exit poll before voting had closed. Nonetheless, the Crown Prosecution Service decided not to take any action against The Times, after discussions took place on the matter with the publishers.'


    As to why "on earth" this would be the case do I really need to answer that?
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    Hodges claiming in Telegraph this morning that Tories have big announcement lined up for 2nd half of this week, that "will redefine the Tory offer".

    Should be interesting. More rental social-housing sales? IHT uplift? something on income tax?

    Incumbents run mostly on their record,not promises.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    antifrank said:

    In Portstewart I often get a stronger mobile signal from Donegal and find myself unintentionally internationally roaming, which is very annoying.

    You need 3, Ireland is one of those countries included in your plan.

    One thing that aggravates me is that the Channel Islands count as "overseas" which means even a text is expensive.
    And I've found myself in France along the S Coast.
    France is free on 3 as well. Don't know if you get a good French signal in the CI though.My last couple of holidays in the EU I have just gone with the EU roaming charges, and use an app to limit my data usage to a few MB a day. If you need to make a call you can use Skype when you have WiFi. But then I make and receive relatively few calls and texts.

    Having said that I can't remember whether Jersey and Guernsey (which are foreign countries after all) are in the EU or EEA or not.
    Hmm. I've always been pleased with O2, but you are making me wonder about 3. Contract anniversary is a bit away, so time for research/development.

    I've a sister in the CI, so there's no problem with ringing at off peak times, although if I need a daytime call, then, as you say, Skype is the answer.

    I THINK the CI's are in the EEA but they are definitely not in the EU.
    3 are the only people doing unlimited 4G and cheaper than you get 2-4 GB from other providers, and their 3G is pretty good as well. 4G still doesn't have full coverage but it is rolling out fast. I moved from Vodafone and although I don't get 4G at home but that doesn't really matter as you connect to the WiFi. Their EU roaming package is fairly expensive at £5 a day but with the EU roaming cap that is no longer so important, and there is a fairly random group of countries(including France, the USA, Ireland and all of Scandinavia) where you can use your minutes and data. DYOR of course but it works for me.

    As Mike says, 4G is magic, but you really need unlimited data to make it work and most phone companies have pulled back from that. You can do things like stream internet radio while out running, for example.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    Tories say he was their candidate until he was sacked last week for failing to support a council candidate.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Grandiose said:

    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    Tories say he was their candidate until he was sacked last week for failing to support a council candidate.
    Ofcourse they will say that.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    Hodges claiming in Telegraph this morning that Tories have big announcement lined up for 2nd half of this week, that "will redefine the Tory offer".

    Should be interesting. More rental social-housing sales? IHT uplift? something on income tax?

    Surely they missed that boat with the budget?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited April 2015
    Just had to smile.

    "Wales' education minister (Huw Lewis) has claimed education in England has been mismanaged by the UK government.

    Speaking at the NASUWT annual conference in Cardiff Bay, Huw Lewis said "ideology has been put before standards".

    He claimed millions had been wasted on "vanity projects such as free schools".

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-32188840

    Digging deeper, it is rally all about 'unqualified teachers' of which apparently Wales has very few. Of course Mr Lewis cannot see that having a PGCE makes anyone qualified to teach - where the requirements are: being in complete command of your subject to two levels above your pupils; being able to command attention and being a very good communicator.

    Often retired Professors (or leaders in industry) are marvellous communicators and bring their subject alive - but they certainly will not have a PGCE and so according to Welsh Labour are not qualified.

    It is really all about political control and having an average education where aspiration for excellence is quietly buried - and so Welsh education continues to decline.

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Grandiose said:

    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    Tories say he was their candidate until he was sacked last week for failing to support a council candidate.
    Story is even more complicated . Although the PPC he was deselected as a council candidate along with a couple of other standing councillors . The Conservative group on the council has been riven with disputes for some months .
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    In terms of expectations management one thing that will help Ed are loads of predictions he is going to be torn apart. The Times headline will surely please him.

    Miliband has a lot to play for and he's a good debater unlike Cameron.

    already he has announced in the Mirror that Cameron has been empty-chaired.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    FalseFlag said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I dislike this widespread postal voting. If someone has a medical or other valid reason (being in the army and posted overseas, for example) then fair enough, otherwise they should just go vote in person.

    Indeed, although I think being out of the country on holiday or business is fair enough. Early voting in person, like they have in the USA, would be preferable but it would mean local council staff having to do some work.

    I find it risible that we talk about Labour having lower turnout among its supporters. Anyone who can't be arsed to go and vote once every five years can't be counted as a supporter, in my view. Most of them live in city constituencies so the polling station really will be just round the corner.

    Most postal voters are elderly and therefore more likely to be Tory or UKIP inclined.

    The funny thing is you probably think that is a bad thing, having drunk the 60s kool aid, but wisdom comes with age.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/elder/8720182/Wisdom-comes-with-age-study-shows.html

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2432221/Wisdom-really-does-come-age-Older-peoples-knowledge-experience-means-make-better-decisions.html

    Time to raise the voting age in accordance with current scientific understanding. The left thrives on exploiting the ignorant.
    Is there any evidence that postal voters are likely to be older ones?
    Common sense! Older people are less likely to be able to travel to a polling station. In addition the crackdown on dodgy postal votes combined with new voter registration means returning officers are being stricter in processing postal votes. I have had 3 communications from the Returning Officer about my mother's and my postal vote.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    edited April 2015

    antifrank said:

    In Portstewart I often get a stronger mobile signal from Donegal and find myself unintentionally internationally roaming, which is very annoying.

    You need 3, Ireland is one of those countries included in your plan.

    One thing that aggravates me is that the Channel Islands count as "overseas" which means even a text is expensive.
    And I've found myself in France along the S Coast.
    France is free on 3 as well. Don't know if you get a good French signal in the CI though.My last couple of holidays in the EU I have just gone with the EU roaming charges, and use an app to limit my data usage to a few MB a day. If you need to make a call you can use Skype when you have WiFi. But then I make and receive relatively few calls and texts.

    Having said that I can't remember whether Jersey and Guernsey (which are foreign countries after all) are in the EU or EEA or not.
    Hmm. I've always been pleased with O2, but you are making me wonder about 3. Contract anniversary is a bit away, so time for research/development.

    I've a sister in the CI, so there's no problem with ringing at off peak times, although if I need a daytime call, then, as you say, Skype is the answer.

    I THINK the CI's are in the EEA but they are definitely not in the EU.
    3 are the only people doing unlimited 4G and cheaper than you get 2-4 GB from other providers, and their 3G is pretty good as well. 4G still doesn't have full coverage but it is rolling out fast. I moved from Vodafone and although I don't get 4G at home but that doesn't really matter as you connect to the WiFi. Their EU roaming package is fairly expensive at £5 a day but with the EU roaming cap that is no longer so important, and there is a fairly random group of countries(including France, the USA, Ireland and all of Scandinavia) where you can use your minutes and data. DYOR of course but it works for me.

    As Mike says, 4G is magic, but you really need unlimited data to make it work and most phone companies have pulled back from that. You can do things like stream internet radio while out running, for example.
    Just checked bro-in-law's Anglesey post code and 3 say they don't provide a service there. It's not THAT isolated either; vilage with a large caravan park, on the coast, not too far from Beaumaris!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    antifrank said:

    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    1) the next debate will be the biggest political event of its day.

    2) Ed Miliband will be aware of the dangers and presumably will be planning for them. He has no competition for the sensible statesman role.

    3) as Roger says, any publicity is good publicity. He is unlikely to do himself too much harm in the English battleground; he is very likely to exceed expectations.

    4) Scotland is a different matter entirely. He may well drive the final nail into the coffins of many Scottish Labour MPs. But if he thinks they're goners already, that's a price worth paying for the chance of winning votes in England.

    I think 4 is key, SLab is done, it is no more. Milliband should persue a strategy to sacrifice SLab to gain seats in England as that is where it counts.
    In case you missed it last night:

    @PickardJE: Introducing Labour's "Living Dead" - its 40 beleagured Scotland MPs. http://t.co/57T14BUgVp “I’m now set to Defcon f***ed,” says one.

    The article is well worth reading.
    Happily read. I have a book that is almost entirely SNP weighted (bar a couple of Con value bets) so that's the kind of thing I like to see.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited April 2015

    Postal voting could make polls less accurate if respondents have a late change of mind and tell the pollster they voted differently or of regret.

    Am I right in thinking they're not allowed to ask how someone has actually voted?
    Why on earth would that be the case? they can and do ask that - see Exit Polls
    The only restriction that I'm aware of is publishing exit polls prior to the poll being closed being illegal.

    snip...

    As to why "on earth" this would be the case do I really need to answer that?
    You asked if they can ask the question...
    To which the answer is: Yes, of course they can ask, why on earth can they not ask? We still have a reasonably free press.

    They can't publish, but that is not the same question.

  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    Dair said:

    MikeK said:

    What Zero Hours can actually mean:

    AlterAlterMedia retweeted
    Barnaby Spen ‏@Barnabyspeak Apr 1
    nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours

    The problem there sounds like an absolute tit of a employer lacking either basic consideration or elementary telephone-using skills. It's a fool's errand trying to anticipate and legislate against all the possible ways a wanker employer can act like a wanker - what the government should be doing instead is paying a reasonable level of unemployment benefit without a lot of judgemental micro-management so that the employee isn't scared to tell them where to stick their job.
    Great. Encourage people to lounge around on the taxpayers hard earned coin.

    Labour's beloved Benefit Culture.
    Citizens Income is not a left wing policy.
    Not sure what CI has to do with this - it isn't anything like an unemployment benefit in the way it is calculated or paid.

    TheWatcher, clearly the employer is being unreasonable if they can't get in touch via email or phone. The question is: what is needed to resolve the situation?

    Preventing exclusivity in such arrangements is a good first step: our "nice girl" can look for additional work already, somewhere else.

    Strong jobs growth would help her find additional work or you could take Edmund's route and make not having a job a stronger option. But that's never going to be a good for her as a new job, so you're back to jobs growth again sooner or later.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    Mr. Lilburne, a costly faff!

    I may well stay up here, and then either go to bed or watch the results roll in rapidly on the TV later on.

    I would like to see the Balls result. I think he'll win, but it's not certain.

    Do you have a tablet? I will probably watch on the TV and follow PB on my phone, but a tablet would be even better.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323

    Hodges claiming in Telegraph this morning that Tories have big announcement lined up for 2nd half of this week, that "will redefine the Tory offer".

    Should be interesting. More rental social-housing sales? IHT uplift? something on income tax?

    Surely they missed that boat with the budget?
    For all the LD's alternative budget malarky, the budget is an agreed government measure. In the days of a coalition, that makes a difference in a way it hasn't before.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    As is often the case, the truth is very different:
    Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse
    That Tory --> Ukip defector was fired last week after attempting to run for council as an independent, emails show: pic.twitter.com/0W39Bt911I
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited April 2015

    Postal voting could make polls less accurate if respondents have a late change of mind and tell the pollster they voted differently or of regret.

    Am I right in thinking they're not allowed to ask how someone has actually voted?
    Why on earth would that be the case? they can and do ask that - see Exit Polls
    The only restriction that I'm aware of is publishing exit polls prior to the poll being closed being illegal.

    snip...

    As to why "on earth" this would be the case do I really need to answer that?
    You asked if they can ask the question...
    To which the answer is: Yes, of course they can ask, why on earth can they not ask? We still have a reasonably free press.

    They can't publish, but that is not the same question.

    You deserve a 4 letter response for being so silly but I don't want a ban so shall refrain. Pathetic wriggling: are you a politician? Just admit you got it wrong and move on.

    As I said, you can't publish polls about how people have actually voted regardless of whether that's an Exit or postal voting before 10pm on May 7th.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    antifrank said:

    In Portstewart I often get a stronger mobile signal from Donegal and find myself unintentionally internationally roaming, which is very annoying.

    You need 3, Ireland is one of those countries included in your plan.

    One thing that aggravates me is that the Channel Islands count as "overseas" which means even a text is expensive.
    And I've found myself in France along the S Coast.
    France is free on 3 as well. Don't know if you get a good French signal in the CI though.My last couple of holidays in the EU I have just gone with the EU roaming charges, and use an app to limit my data usage to a few MB a day. If you need to make a call you can use Skype when you have WiFi. But then I make and receive relatively few calls and texts.

    Having said that I can't remember whether Jersey and Guernsey (which are foreign countries after all) are in the EU or EEA or not.
    Hmm. I've always been pleased with O2, but you are making me wonder about 3. Contract anniversary is a bit away, so time for research/development.

    I've a sister in the CI, so there's no problem with ringing at off peak times, although if I need a daytime call, then, as you say, Skype is the answer.

    I THINK the CI's are in the EEA but they are definitely not in the EU.
    3 are the only people doing unlimited 4G and cheaper than you get 2-4 GB from other providers, and their 3G is pretty good as well. 4G still doesn't have full coverage but it is rolling out fast. I moved from Vodafone and although I don't get 4G at home but that doesn't really matter as you connect to the WiFi. Their EU roaming package is fairly expensive at £5 a day but with the EU roaming cap that is no longer so important, and there is a fairly random group of countries(including France, the USA, Ireland and all of Scandinavia) where you can use your minutes and data. DYOR of course but it works for me.

    As Mike says, 4G is magic, but you really need unlimited data to make it work and most phone companies have pulled back from that. You can do things like stream internet radio while out running, for example.
    Just checked bro-in-law's Anglesey post code and 3 say they don't provide a service there. It's not THAT isolated either; vilage with a large caravan park, on the coast, not too far from Beaumaris!
    You could always get a cheap PAYG SIM card for Anglesey, not sure how much forwarding your phone from its usual number would cost though.

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    SMukesh said:

    Grandiose said:

    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    Tories say he was their candidate until he was sacked last week for failing to support a council candidate.
    Ofcourse they will say that.
    They will say that because it's true and they have released the e-mail to prove it.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    As is often the case, the truth is very different:
    Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse
    That Tory --> Ukip defector was fired last week after attempting to run for council as an independent, emails show: pic.twitter.com/0W39Bt911I
    Just wondering why the Tories didn't make a public announcement for a week!
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    As is often the case, the truth is very different:
    Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse
    That Tory --> Ukip defector was fired last week after attempting to run for council as an independent, emails show: pic.twitter.com/0W39Bt911I
    Just wondering why the Tories didn't make a public announcement for a week!
    Because no one cares? Its rock solid Labour seat with LDs second.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Postal voting could make polls less accurate if respondents have a late change of mind and tell the pollster they voted differently or of regret.

    Am I right in thinking they're not allowed to ask how someone has actually voted?
    Why on earth would that be the case? they can and do ask that - see Exit Polls
    The only restriction that I'm aware of is publishing exit polls prior to the poll being closed being illegal.

    'The Representation of the People Act 2002 inserted a section 66A into the initial 1983 of the same name and this read as follows. It is a criminal offence 'to publish, before a poll is closed, any statement about the way in which voters have voted in that election, where this statement is, or might reasonably be taken to be, based on information given by voters after they voted.'

    The 2002 Act specifically makes it an offence 'to publish, before a poll is closed, any forecast – including any estimate – of that election result, if the forecast is based on exit poll information from voters, or which might reasonably be taken to be based on it.

    These laws apply to both Parliamentary and local elections, elections to the Welsh Assembly and to by-elections. The 2002 Act applies both to exit polls conducted to focus on voting in a particular constituency or ward and to voting patterns nationally. Furthermore, the publication of exit polls is also prohibited during voting for European Parliamentary elections.

    The Times narrowly escaped legal action when they published an opinion poll in June 2004 on how people had voted in areas that had used all-postal ballots. Since the poll was published in the newspaper during the European Parliamentary elections that it referred to, the Electoral Commission (an independent watchdog on elections) alerted the Crown Prosecution Service. The Electoral Commission stated that publishing such an opinion poll amounted to publishing an exit poll before voting had closed. Nonetheless, the Crown Prosecution Service decided not to take any action against The Times, after discussions took place on the matter with the publishers.'


    As to why "on earth" this would be the case do I really need to answer that?
    Interesting, so what are pollsters doing in practice? I guess the approach is to lump together the responses of people who have already voted and people who are still guessing how they'll vote? But breaking them down in the detailed tables would represent an imprisonable cross-tab?

    And could you legally conduct an exit poll in the UK, as long as you didn't publish the result in the UK?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    edited April 2015
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    As is often the case, the truth is very different:
    Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse
    That Tory --> Ukip defector was fired last week after attempting to run for council as an independent, emails show: pic.twitter.com/0W39Bt911I
    Just wondering why the Tories didn't make a public announcement for a week!
    Because they wanted to have the new candidate in place first? Seems a strange thing to comment on, with 600+ candidates I am sure all parties will have little local difficulties. I am sure we could find some Labour ones if we look hard enough - Bradford rings a bell.

  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    As is often the case, the truth is very different:
    Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse
    That Tory --> Ukip defector was fired last week after attempting to run for council as an independent, emails show: pic.twitter.com/0W39Bt911I
    Just wondering why the Tories didn't make a public announcement for a week!
    Because no one cares? Its rock solid Labour seat with LDs second.

    Coz it's national headlines today.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    Postal voting could make polls less accurate if respondents have a late change of mind and tell the pollster they voted differently or of regret.

    Am I right in thinking they're not allowed to ask how someone has actually voted?
    Why on earth would that be the case? they can and do ask that - see Exit Polls
    The only restriction that I'm aware of is publishing exit polls prior to the poll being closed being illegal.

    'The Representation of the People Act 2002 inserted a section 66A into the initial 1983 of the same name and this read as follows. It is a criminal offence 'to publish, before a poll is closed, any statement about the way in which voters have voted in that election, where this statement is, or might reasonably be taken to be, based on information given by voters after they voted.'




    As to why "on earth" this would be the case do I really need to answer that?
    Interesting, so what are pollsters doing in practice? I guess the approach is to lump together the responses of people who have already voted and people who are still guessing how they'll vote? But breaking them down in the detailed tables would represent an imprisonable cross-tab?

    And could you legally conduct an exit poll in the UK, as long as you didn't publish the result in the UK?
    Re the second thats effectively what happens isn't it? They take the data and then its embargoed until close of polling.

    Re the first it's an interesting one. In practice I bet they don't screen them out? But what if someone says 'I've already voted'? It would then be illegal to include a response in the data!

    I like the way Mr Smithson puts the spotlight on postal votes. Its really easy to forget that 1/5th will vote before polling day.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,983
    Alistaire

    "Happily read. I have a book that is almost entirely SNP weighted (bar a couple of Con value bets) so that's the kind of thing I like to see.

    I can't access the FT page. Can you tell me their predictions for the 4 Edinburgh seats?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108


    Common sense! Older people are less likely to be able to travel to a polling station. In addition the crackdown on dodgy postal votes combined with new voter registration means returning officers are being stricter in processing postal votes. I have had 3 communications from the Returning Officer about my mother's and my postal vote.

    If I was speculating on the largest component cohort in the postal votes cast in the UK, my initial thoughts would be "fictitious individuals".
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Lilburne, no. I'm a shocking luddite. No mobile phone either.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    Postal voting could make polls less accurate if respondents have a late change of mind and tell the pollster they voted differently or of regret.

    Am I right in thinking they're not allowed to ask how someone has actually voted?
    Why on earth would that be the case? they can and do ask that - see Exit Polls
    The only restriction that I'm aware of is publishing exit polls prior to the poll being closed being illegal.

    snip...

    As to why "on earth" this would be the case do I really need to answer that?
    You asked if they can ask the question...
    To which the answer is: Yes, of course they can ask, why on earth can they not ask? We still have a reasonably free press.

    They can't publish, but that is not the same question.

    You deserve a 4 letter response for being so silly but I don't want a ban so shall refrain. Pathetic wriggling: are you a politician? Just admit you got it wrong and move on.

    As I said, you can't publish polls about how people have actually voted regardless of whether that's an Exit or postal voting before 10pm on May 7th.
    Who's wriggling? You asked:
    Am I right in thinking they're not allowed to ask how someone has actually voted?

    I answered that question, I even said that they would not be allowed to publish the results before your boringly long winded quoting of statute.

    My initial response was a bit flippant, i'll admit to that much.

    Pollsters can ask what they like, they are not allowed to publish exit polls (being any poll conducted after the person has voted) before the poll has closed, but they can still ask it along with other questions. They don't have to publish the responses.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    As is often the case, the truth is very different:
    Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse
    That Tory --> Ukip defector was fired last week after attempting to run for council as an independent, emails show: pic.twitter.com/0W39Bt911I
    Just wondering why the Tories didn't make a public announcement for a week!
    Because no one cares? Its rock solid Labour seat with LDs second.

    Coz it's national headlines today.
    Its nowhere on Sky and its buried on BBC under a headline 'Ex Tory candidate quits for Ukip' and goes on to talk about how he was sacked by the tories last week.

    All it looks like is 'tory reject' as per soccer chants.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Grandiose said:


    Not sure what CI has to do with this - it isn't anything like an unemployment benefit in the way it is calculated or paid.

    An Unemployment Benefit without "less stringent requirements" is in effect a Citizens Income.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    As is often the case, the truth is very different:
    Matthew Holehouse @mattholehouse
    That Tory --> Ukip defector was fired last week after attempting to run for council as an independent, emails show: pic.twitter.com/0W39Bt911I
    Just wondering why the Tories didn't make a public announcement for a week!
    Because no one cares? Its rock solid Labour seat with LDs second.

    Coz it's national headlines today.
    Is it? Which papers are carrying that headline?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    Indigo said:

    First!

    (I was just thinking to my self how nice it was going to be watching the general election coverage as I eat my breakfast and lunch, but then I realised I am going to be on vacation on a tropical island with no internet worth a damn, life is tough sometimes!)

    Tough at the top
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Question for Mr Smithson & others.

    I know this is different from the polling companies but I'm right that you're also not allowed to publish a photo of how you vote? By 'publish' I take it that means any form of social media? So you cant go into the polling booth and snap chat your vote for example? Its definitely an offence in most of the U.S.

    So how do you know your Twickenham vote swap is guaranteed? Do you send each other personal emails? And what if one gets your photo and then changes his mind about the swap? You've then got no legal redress? Curious!
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    antifrank said:

    In Portstewart I often get a stronger mobile signal from Donegal and find myself unintentionally internationally roaming, which is very annoying.

    You need 3, Ireland is one of those countries included in your plan.

    One thing that aggravates me is that the Channel Islands count as "overseas" which means even a text is expensive.
    And I've found myself in France along the S Coast.
    France is free on 3 as well. Don't know if you get a good French signal in the CI though.My last couple of holidays in the EU I have just gone with the EU roaming charges, and use an app to limit my data usage to a few MB a day. If you need to make a call you can use Skype when you have WiFi. But then I make and receive relatively few calls and texts.

    Having said that I can't remember whether Jersey and Guernsey (which are foreign countries after all) are in the EU or EEA or not.
    Hmm. I've always been pleased with O2, but you are making me wonder about 3. Contract anniversary is a bit away, so time for research/development.

    I've a sister in the CI, so there's no problem with ringing at off peak times, although if I need a daytime call, then, as you say, Skype is the answer.

    I THINK the CI's are in the EEA but they are definitely not in the EU.
    3 are the only people doing unlimited 4G and cheaper than you get 2-4 GB from other providers, and their 3G is pretty good as well. 4G still doesn't have full coverage but it is rolling out fast. I moved from Vodafone and although I don't get 4G at home but that doesn't really matter as you connect to the WiFi. Their EU roaming package is fairly expensive at £5 a day but with the EU roaming cap that is no longer so important, and there is a fairly random group of countries(including France, the USA, Ireland and all of Scandinavia) where you can use your minutes and data. DYOR of course but it works for me.

    As Mike says, 4G is magic, but you really need unlimited data to make it work and most phone companies have pulled back from that. You can do things like stream internet radio while out running, for example.
    I'm on a 3 "All you can eat data" contract with free international data roaming for £15 a month. The art with mobiles is to buy the phone outright and operate on SIM only.

  • So when should I expect the main parties manifestos to be released?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Morris Dancer, Charles Kennedy is seeking re-election (much to my surprise) and for obvious reasons has suspended his campaign for a few days. His father Ian was an incredibly well known person throughout Lochaber. After Alistair Carmichael, I believe Charles remains the Scottish LibDem most likely to hold on.

    Separately, I wonder when SLAB MPs will waken up and realise that their likely imminent demise is down to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown who set up Holyrood to kill off nationalism once and for always. We can see how well that has worked over the past 16 years.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    Question for Mr Smithson & others.

    I know this is different from the polling companies but I'm right that you're also not allowed to publish a photo of how you vote? By 'publish' I take it that means any form of social media? So you cant go into the polling booth and snap chat your vote for example? Its definitely an offence in most of the U.S.

    So how do you know your Twickenham vote swap is guaranteed? Do you send each other personal emails? And what if one gets your photo and then changes his mind about the swap? You've then got no legal redress? Curious!

    The law isn't clear on that apparently:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27486392

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Gawain Towler (@GawainTowler)
    06/04/2015 08:41
    Labour cllr 'didn't help constituent because he backed @UKIP' dailym.ai/1PaG1bo - In FPTP an elected official serves all constituents
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,165
    antifrank said:

    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    1) the next debate will be the biggest political event of its day.

    2) Ed Miliband will be aware of the dangers and presumably will be planning for them. He has no competition for the sensible statesman role.

    3) as Roger says, any publicity is good publicity. He is unlikely to do himself too much harm in the English battleground; he is very likely to exceed expectations.

    4) Scotland is a different matter entirely. He may well drive the final nail into the coffins of many Scottish Labour MPs. But if he thinks they're goners already, that's a price worth paying for the chance of winning votes in England.

    I think 4 is key, SLab is done, it is no more. Milliband should persue a strategy to sacrifice SLab to gain seats in England as that is where it counts.
    In case you missed it last night:

    @PickardJE: Introducing Labour's "Living Dead" - its 40 beleagured Scotland MPs. http://t.co/57T14BUgVp “I’m now set to Defcon f***ed,” says one.

    The article is well worth reading.
    I wonder if it's the same SLab MP who said he was only standing to get the redundancy? I'm thinking it may be Tom Harris of an almost adjacent parish; he'd be capable of the odd bit of pithy honesty (as long as in this case it was unattributable).
  • SMukesh said:

    Tory candidate for Hull defects to UKIP.

    Not quite an MP but...

    A Tory in Hull will never be anywhere near being an MP!
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Douglas Alexander claims he is fighting for fairer bus fares for Renfrewshire. Someone should ask him what that has to do with Westminster? It is an issue for Renfrewshire Council never mind Holyrood.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Well, indeed, Mr. Easterross. 'Killing nationalism stone dead' has proven as much bravado foolishness as slapping an alligator in the face with your todger.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    Mr. Lilburne, no. I'm a shocking luddite. No mobile phone either.

    Surely you have a Kindle?At the very least you would want to know what your books looI like.

    I have only got one phone now, but it is my mobile. I only got cold callers on the landline anyway.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    Yorkcity said:

    Dair said:

    Roger said:

    The challengers debate should be fun next week. A lefty love-in with a grinning Farage collecting Cammeron's votes from the other side.

    Unless Michael Green can organize a programme called 'one careful owner'on another channel it's difficult to see how Cameron's going to come out of this undamaged. If there's a silver lining it's that the Libs might come out of it even worse

    There's only going to be one definite loser in the Challenger Debate.

    Ed Miliband will be ripped apart.

    Farage could join him but if he's smart and plays along, says as little controversial things as possible and basically behaves he can avoid drawing attention from Sturgeon and ending up buried as bad as Miliband.

    Who's chairing it? Miliband could end up with his "Help me Rona!" moment.
    Will anyone be watching ?

    It will be like watching a Europa league quarter final with no English involvement on ITV 4.
    Normal people will be watching , the effete premiership type fans will not , huffed that their "world class" teams were dumped out in early rounds by minnows.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited April 2015

    Question for Mr Smithson & others.

    I know this is different from the polling companies but I'm right that you're also not allowed to publish a photo of how you vote? By 'publish' I take it that means any form of social media? So you cant go into the polling booth and snap chat your vote for example? Its definitely an offence in most of the U.S.

    So how do you know your Twickenham vote swap is guaranteed? Do you send each other personal emails? And what if one gets your photo and then changes his mind about the swap? You've then got no legal redress? Curious!

    The law isn't clear on that apparently:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27486392

    The bit which isn't clear is taking the selfie. The bit which is clear is publishing it e.g. to social media. If it communicates information about the way someone has voted or is about to vote - or to communicate the unique identification number on the ballot paper then it's not allowed as the article and Electoral Commission make clear. So if you Snapchatted or instagrammed it's not allowed.

    You're allowed to take a selfie and not publish it anywhere just as your hypothetical wriggle of an opinion poll company taking the time and trouble to ask you how you voted in order not to publish the result.

    Im curious how in a vote swap you convey the info or is it just taken on trust?
  • Douglas Alexander claims he is fighting for fairer bus fares for Renfrewshire. Someone should ask him what that has to do with Westminster? It is an issue for Renfrewshire Council never mind Holyrood.

    Is it?

    Do councils have a say on bus fares in Scotland?

    Honestly thought they were deregulated like in England.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Morris Dancer, Charles Kennedy is seeking re-election (much to my surprise) and for obvious reasons has suspended his campaign for a few days. His father Ian was an incredibly well known person throughout Lochaber. After Alistair Carmichael, I believe Charles remains the Scottish LibDem most likely to hold on.

    Separately, I wonder when SLAB MPs will waken up and realise that their likely imminent demise is down to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown who set up Holyrood to kill off nationalism once and for always. We can see how well that has worked over the past 16 years.

    I thought the responsibility for this masterstroke was generally believed to be 100% Donald Dewar.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313

    Douglas Alexander claims he is fighting for fairer bus fares for Renfrewshire. Someone should ask him what that has to do with Westminster? It is an issue for Renfrewshire Council never mind Holyrood.

    Is it?

    Do councils have a say on bus fares in Scotland?

    Honestly thought they were deregulated like in England.
    Even in England, some bus routes get a local government subsidy, and most of their funding comes from Westminster. But as Easteross says, I'd have thought it was a devolved matter.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    Mr. Lilburne, I do loathe cold callers.

    I've got a Kindle (e-reader, not tablet).

    F1: idly having a look at Twitter, it's reported Raikkonen reckons Ferrari can challenge Mercedes in cool conditions.

    If so, China and Bahrain should be good for the prancing horse (long straights, not much in the way of slow corners). So, if you think Ferrari have a good shot, you may wish to back them now, then lay/hedge during the end of the initial four fly-aways (after Bahrain).

    Later in the season other types of circuits are involved (notably the slow and awful Monaco and Singapore, at which Ferrari may, relatively, struggle). That said, Monza and Austria should be very nice for the team.

    If Ferrari cannot challenge in cool conditions, the title will belong to Mercedes.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Independent mp weighs in

    Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell)
    06/04/2015 10:09
    Mike Whitehead - still on Conservative website as their candidate. Not so ex after all hullconservatives.co.uk/mike-whitehead…
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    Question for Mr Smithson & others.

    I know this is different from the polling companies but I'm right that you're also not allowed to publish a photo of how you vote? By 'publish' I take it that means any form of social media? So you cant go into the polling booth and snap chat your vote for example? Its definitely an offence in most of the U.S.

    So how do you know your Twickenham vote swap is guaranteed? Do you send each other personal emails? And what if one gets your photo and then changes his mind about the swap? You've then got no legal redress? Curious!

    The law isn't clear on that apparently:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27486392

    The bit which isn't clear is taking the selfie. The bit which is clear is publishing it e.g. to social media. If it communicates information about the way someone has voted or is about to vote - or to communicate the unique identification number on the ballot paper then it's not allowed as the article and Electoral Commission make clear. So if you Snapchatted or instagrammed it's not allowed.

    You're allowed to take a selfie and not publish it anywhere just as your hypothetical wriggle of an opinion poll company taking the time and trouble to ask you how you voted in order not to publish the result.
    Sigh,

    again you're asking/answering the wrong question.
    If I show my friend a photo of an event, my son blowing out his birthday cake candles for example, am I "publishing" that picture? If I print it out and post a copy to my Mum, am I "publishing" it?
    If OGH takes a photo of his completed ballot, and his friend does likewise, are they "publishing" the pictures?

    No, of course they are not; don't be such a silly billy.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    I am much taken by Mike's blue finger nail polish as he posted that ballot paper....if only he had also shown a bit of leg as well.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    Given the efforts being put in by the parties on postal votes ,I would have thought that we will see a sharp increase in the level of postal voting.I would guess it could be up to 40% of the votes cast in some seats.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    malcolmg said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Dair said:

    Roger said:

    The challengers debate should be fun next week. A lefty love-in with a grinning Farage collecting Cammeron's votes from the other side.

    Unless Michael Green can organize a programme called 'one careful owner'on another channel it's difficult to see how Cameron's going to come out of this undamaged. If there's a silver lining it's that the Libs might come out of it even worse

    There's only going to be one definite loser in the Challenger Debate.

    Ed Miliband will be ripped apart.

    Farage could join him but if he's smart and plays along, says as little controversial things as possible and basically behaves he can avoid drawing attention from Sturgeon and ending up buried as bad as Miliband.

    Who's chairing it? Miliband could end up with his "Help me Rona!" moment.
    Will anyone be watching ?

    It will be like watching a Europa league quarter final with no English involvement on ITV 4.
    Normal people will be watching , the effete premiership type fans will not , huffed that their "world class" teams were dumped out in early rounds by minnows.
    Minnows like Barcelona and PSG. The global success of the English Premiership must sting.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505

    MikeK said:

    What Zero Hours can actually mean:

    AlterAlterMedia retweeted
    Barnaby Spen ‏@Barnabyspeak Apr 1
    nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours

    And whilst I do feel sorry for the lass, I'm wondering why any of this is news.

    When I was a young shaver, I too had casual work down at a "local". Nothing so grand sounding as a contract (zero hours or otherwise). I would often be told to go home if the place was quiet. I would often be out of pocket for the day.

    Its news because this is the supposed full employment boom we are experiencing courtesy of the Tories. People on sham contracts being paid next to nothing so they can fiddle employment numbers and rapacious employers can avoid paying wages to staff.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited April 2015
    Ex-Tory candidate Mike Whitehead 'switches to UKIP'

    A former Conservative parliamentary candidate has joined UKIP, amid a row in the Hull West and Hessle constituency.
    UKIP leader Nigel Farage had welcomed the move to UKIP, with Mr Whitehead citing a row with the local Conservative group for his decision.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32194270

    An Easter present for UKIP.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    Mr D, since getting Caller Display the number of cold callers we've answered has dropped dramatically. Fortunately we've got the numbers of all our international contacts in the address book so they show as our contacts name, rather than international, so Microsoft Technical Department, who come up as "Unidentified International" just don't get answered.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    In Scotland groups of local authorities have an involvement in public transport. Strathclyde Passenger Transport (SPT) administers public transport across West Central Scotland and you can follow this link to see their web page http://www.spt.co.uk/ It covers the 12 council areas across what used to be Strathclyde Region.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    People on sham contracts being paid next to nothing so they can fiddle employment numbers and rapacious employers can avoid paying wages to staff.

    except the numbers are tiny.

    750,000 out of a workforce of almost 31 million.

    But don;t let facts get in the way of your childish rant.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited April 2015
    @SMukesh

    'already he has announced in the Mirror that Cameron has been empty-chaired.'

    That should have a dramatic effect on all those floating voters that read the Mirror.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,964
    King Cole, generally I do ignore the phone if I don't recognise the number. Of course, if I'm expecting a call from someone new then I have to answer, and hope it's not some Indian woman claiming to be from Windows and helpfully telling me she's rung up to help me against a virus.

    [That happened a few months ago].
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    The requirements for secrecy are basically imposed on the staff and those authorised to attend a polling station by s66 of the Representation of the People Act 1983. I see pretty much nothing in that section that applies to a voter.

    This is a potential problem and the advice given to returning officers is to discourage the taking of photos. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27486392

    I think it is a concern that a voter might be "encouraged" to produce evidence of their vote by anyone and it undermines the secret ballot. Once again our law has not really kept up with modern technology. Of course all of these problems already exist in a much more unregulated fashion for postal voters which is for me the single strongest reason for restricting their use. A secret ballot is precious and should not be idly thrown away.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    What percentage of the electorate are we expecting to vote by post? Hasn't the whole thing been tightened up?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,505
    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    What Zero Hours can actually mean:

    AlterAlterMedia retweeted
    Barnaby Spen ‏@Barnabyspeak Apr 1
    nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours

    Does it not occur to you that this is notewoithy because it is an exception rather than the rule?
    Unfortunately it is far from an exception, rather the rule
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    edited April 2015

    King Cole, generally I do ignore the phone if I don't recognise the number. Of course, if I'm expecting a call from someone new then I have to answer, and hope it's not some Indian woman claiming to be from Windows and helpfully telling me she's rung up to help me against a virus.

    [That happened a few months ago].

    If you only occasionally get a call telling that Microsoft Tech has identified a fault you are very lucky. I was getting at least one a week at one stage and even telling one such that I wouldn’t let Windows anywhere near my computer didn’t stop other such crooks from trying it on.

    We take the view that if it’s someone with a genuine reason for trying to contact us they’ll leave a message.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 322
    I am confused as to what the fuss is about "zero hours contracts". I have been on one with the NHS for the past three years. I tell them what hours I am willing to work and they pay me accordingly at £75 per hour. Obviously I don't get sick pay, holiday pay or a pension, but I already have a pension based on what was the maximum lifetime allowance so wouldn't want one that would tip me over the limit. I would refuse a permanent contract if it was offered (as it has been).

    Likewise my son who is a professional actor does work on a zero hours contract when he is between engagements. It suits him fine and he wouldn't be able or willing to take anything permanent; he regards the pay £11 per hour as reasonable and the employers are sensible and supportive. They are a large public organization. Most of his actor friends have similar arrangements for part time or sessional work.

    What world do Mr Milliband and his socialist chums live in
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    malcolmg said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Dair said:

    Roger said:

    The challengers debate should be fun next week. A lefty love-in with a grinning Farage collecting Cammeron's votes from the other side.

    Unless Michael Green can organize a programme called 'one careful owner'on another channel it's difficult to see how Cameron's going to come out of this undamaged. If there's a silver lining it's that the Libs might come out of it even worse

    There's only going to be one definite loser in the Challenger Debate.

    Ed Miliband will be ripped apart.

    Farage could join him but if he's smart and plays along, says as little controversial things as possible and basically behaves he can avoid drawing attention from Sturgeon and ending up buried as bad as Miliband.

    Who's chairing it? Miliband could end up with his "Help me Rona!" moment.
    Will anyone be watching ?

    It will be like watching a Europa league quarter final with no English involvement on ITV 4.
    Normal people will be watching , the effete premiership type fans will not , huffed that their "world class" teams were dumped out in early rounds by minnows.
    More than Hearts v Rangers on BT Sport then ?

    Hope you Scots have not over hyped this young lad after calling him the Scottish Messi.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30392738
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    I just thought of a somewhat bizarre scenario under which the SNP could form the next government of the United Kingdom. While not likely, it is actually plausible.

    Under FTPA the third largest party would get an opportunity to form a government after the incumbent and then largest/second largest party have their chance. If both are defeated on confidence or pass the opportunity given they can't maintain confidence of the house, the SNP could make the offer to the Tories. Support us on as a short term, single issue Government - a Bill to devolve all matters except Defense and Foreign Affairs, while exempting Scotland for certain aspects of current UK wide spending while disbarring Scottish MPs from voting on any matter not related to Defense and Foreign Affairs.

    There is a good reason for the Conservatives to support this, obviously there's potential risks for them too. But they might be less than the risks of an early election and UKIP gaining more ground. Meanwhile, if it is successful, all those Anti-Scottish Kippers may be attracted back to the Tories who "finally got rid of them interfering with England".
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    MikeK said:

    Ex-Tory candidate Mike Whitehead 'switches to UKIP'

    A former Conservative parliamentary candidate has joined UKIP, amid a row in the Hull West and Hessle constituency.
    UKIP leader Nigel Farage had welcomed the move to UKIP, with Mr Whitehead citing a row with the local Conservative group for his decision.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32194270

    An Easter present for UKIP.

    The guy was sacked by the Tories before joining ukip. Any port in a storm.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,313
    taffys said:

    People on sham contracts being paid next to nothing so they can fiddle employment numbers and rapacious employers can avoid paying wages to staff.

    except the numbers are tiny.

    750,000 out of a workforce of almost 31 million.

    But don;t let facts get in the way of your childish rant.

    And anyone on less than 16 hours can still claim JSA.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    taffys said:

    People on sham contracts being paid next to nothing so they can fiddle employment numbers and rapacious employers can avoid paying wages to staff.

    except the numbers are tiny.

    750,000 out of a workforce of almost 31 million.

    But don;t let facts get in the way of your childish rant.

    Use the quote button ><
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    DavidL said:


    I think it is a concern that a voter might be "encouraged" to produce evidence of their vote by anyone and it undermines the secret ballot. Once again our law has not really kept up with modern technology. Of course all of these problems already exist in a much more unregulated fashion for postal voters which is for me the single strongest reason for restricting their use. A secret ballot is precious and should not be idly thrown away.

    The UK does not operate a Secret Ballot.

    Your ballot paper number is recorded next to your name and address on the voters roll and can be referenced by officials at any time up till the papers are destoryed (6 months I believe).
This discussion has been closed.