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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just over a week to go before voting starts
You might have thought that there’s more than a month to go in this election but early next week the first postal voting packs will be going out and people will start voting in GE2015.
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(I was just thinking to my self how nice it was going to be watching the general election coverage as I eat my breakfast and lunch, but then I realised I am going to be on vacation on a tropical island with no internet worth a damn, life is tough sometimes!)
GPRS from a cell phone on a good day. Which is an improvement on the first time I visited 15 years ago where there was one land line telephone on the island and you had to queue to make your call!
My favourite was the poll in Vancouver. Do you think the local transport facilities should be improved? YES 70%. Would you be willing to pay an extra 0.5% in sales tax to achieve this? NO 70%.
IA's law states that, in any so-called "mature" democracy, 40% of voters expect something for nothing.
Don't know. Really don't know.
A little more political nous, and a little less grandstanding from a more able leadership might have completed a drift toward the centre without losing quite so many on the right, which would have put them on course for a majority.
My problem with a "competence vs chaos" meme is that competence doesn't fire anyone up, and get out the vote, its what you hope any professional person will do (yes, I know its less common in politics). When you ask Cameron what he stands for, what fires him up about politics, what he wants to achieve, there is a polite silence, almost as if the question is in bad taste.
Moving to the centre seems fine to me providing you win working man, but thats Cameron & Osbornes problem. They don't often seem to speak for ordinary people in the way say that Maggie or even Major did. Too often they seem like old tory grandees. Case in point yesterday. Why didn't Osborne just reply 'I'm hoping to cut taxes for everyone'? So simple. But if you don't know what its like to live on the breadline you'll never get that.
In the absence of any big momentum this could be a weird election with a very divided britain. London looks to me like its going big time labour, but even there we could see big divide between east end and west end.
At the same time one possible coalition partner has collapsed, and another possible (although less likely) partner (the kippers) will have the votes, but owing to being thinly spread won't have the seats. The Tories might wibble about not doing a deal with the kippers, but if Farage had 30 seats they would bite his arm off.
London is going to be interesting in terms of how efficient Labour vote is, its going to do them no good at all piling up 40k majorities in places like East Ham and then losing Hampstead & Highgate.
Not 1997 following repeated booms and busts, capped by the total collapse of Tory economic policy when ejected from the ERM. Not 1974 after austerity was replaced by the Barber boom, later blamed by monetarists and Thatcherites for having caused the inflation against which Labour struggled. Not 1964, following stop/go and low growth. 1945 is a special case. Perhaps you meant 1929.
I am thinking particularly here of the Michael Foot effect, who was by the standards of current politicians an intellectual and oratorical titan with a sartorial death wish. When people discuss Foot they tend not to say they didn't want him as PM because he was a dangerous socialist, or because he was in the union's pocket, or because they didn't like his intellectual or debating positions. They mostly say they didn't want him to be PM because he looked like he had just arrived from a picket line, its was the "donkey jacket" image that killed him, especially the supposed donkey jacket at the cenotaph, which apparently was actually http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/7361078/Michael-Foot-and-the-donkey-jacket-that-wasnt.html
No, not in your throat or next to you in bed ....
But your pension pot !!
The big question for PB will be what OGH will spend his pension pot on. The betting from Lad-Hills presently is :
1. A decade supply of Chanel No 666 Hair Tonic Pour Homme - 6/4 fav
2. £20K donation to Vince Cable in Twickenham - 5/1
3. £100K investment for a 2% stake in my ARSE - 8/1
4. 51% share of the Bedford Sandal Co Ltd - 10/1
5. £1M trust fund for son Robert - 100/1
Huzzah for Pensions Minister Steve Webb and the Coalition.
Its a deathly dull election so far.
I missed 2010 as I was on a visit to Africa, and postal voted. I missed all the coalition negotiations. Not this time around.
Mobile phone, at least via Vodafone and O2 is dreadful.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/32190054
But I did see Black Lark on Anglesey. Yay!
But dipped the Catbird. Boo.....
Not sure that's right. The change in the mood was when people had to put a cross in the box for Prime Minister Kinnock. "Nah....just can't do it."
Would have been the same crunch point whether postal or polling station.
Er, lie....
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/06/nick-clegg-george-osborne-is-a-very-dangerous-man
Well I suppose he has seen him close up in the quad, so we should take his word .
Unless Michael Green can organize a programme called 'one careful owner'on another channel it's difficult to see how Cameron's going to come out of this undamaged. If there's a silver lining it's that the Libs might come out of it even worse
On topic,
Does anybody really know if the early postal voting did/does firm up the polls?
What has been the impact at the last few GE/Local elections?
As older voters vote, tend to be Tory and make up the bulk of postal voters, in some seats the election could virtually be over before polling day arrives and therefore events will have little or no relevance.
As younger voters tend to support Labour or the Greens, are less likely to vote and it seems in a great many cases are not actually registered to vote, will we look back on Labour vote shares in the polls and realise we should have deducted 2-3% to get close to the actual numbers?
Interesting 4 weeks ahead for we political anoraks.
I wonder if Michael Ashcroft will be revisiting Thanet South. The media this weekend has been entirely negative about Nigel Farage and for many voters, the prospect of ending his career (as with Clegg in Sheffield) must be an attractive prospect.
On the west coast, Orange is often the best.
The smaller parties may get a small boost at the equal expense of the main 2, but I doubt even that (barring some complete howler by Ed - Surely the Farage effect is already priced in).
Ed Miliband will be ripped apart.
Farage could join him but if he's smart and plays along, says as little controversial things as possible and basically behaves he can avoid drawing attention from Sturgeon and ending up buried as bad as Miliband.
Who's chairing it? Miliband could end up with his "Help me Rona!" moment.
However, this is a version of Margaret Thatcher and the calf.
http://tinyurl.com/p4exfe6
If that is right then the campaign goes on after the feckless, the undecided, the don't really knows and the can I be bothered. On such mighty platforms is democracy built. Don'tcha love it?
Oh well, the more desperate they get the more confident I am that the Tories will prevail.
It will be like watching a Europa league quarter final with no English involvement on ITV 4.
"Ed Miliband will be ripped apart."
I'd be very surprised if an hour of Prime time television will lose Ed any votes! I've done some ads for some pretty ropey products but I can't remember ever hearing that sales went down!
I'd expect it to rate between 5.5m and 6.0m.
I dislike this widespread postal voting. If someone has a medical or other valid reason (being in the army and posted overseas, for example) then fair enough, otherwise they should just go vote in person.
If they are true blue .
The way you compare a structured, pre-recorded, focus-grouped and tested advert is absolutely the same as an uncontrolled, live, unpredictable and unrehearsed debate.
Truly the insight gained on your thought process is wonderous.
;-)
Curiously enough I have never felt the need to watch the film either.
she would be voting Labour, but isn't because she hates the idea of Ed as PM.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-32162012
As an aside, I lecturer at university [I wasn't taking his lectures at this point] during the 2005 Danish cartoon controversy reportedly went off on one about how evil the Danish cartoons were. So, I'd strongly suspect this'll be an issue at universities as well as schools.
However at least he has got into the ring, and he is the only one of the leaders , who can be PM, and at 10/11 that is definite possibility.
2) Ed Miliband will be aware of the dangers and presumably will be planning for them. He has no competition for the sensible statesman role.
3) as Roger says, any publicity is good publicity. He is unlikely to do himself too much harm in the English battleground; he is very likely to exceed expectations.
4) Scotland is a different matter entirely. He may well drive the final nail into the coffins of many Scottish Labour MPs. But if he thinks they're goners already, that's a price worth paying for the chance of winning votes in England.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/11517177/Promote-gay-relationships-as-positive-in-school-teachers-say.html
How he gets on versus Sturgeon will be very interesting to see.
Mr. Easterross, sad news. Is Kennedy standing for election again?
The agony of choice! The Romans never had to grapple with such decisions.
I have spent 5 years in government with a "dangerous man" just so I can get a ministerial salary a seat at cabinet and a ministerial car. That will cost him even more votes in Shefield Hallam. It surprises me they are not putting forward how well they have actually done in a coalition.
I can though see how the left think he's a "dangerous man" after all creating that many jobs and putting the people in full time pay rather than low pay sink estates and dole erodes the left wing voting base as people realise they can then aspire and achieve better things.
AlterAlterMedia retweeted
Barnaby Spen @Barnabyspeak Apr 1
nice girl in my local turns up at 7 for work, told to go home 'cos they're not busy. Cost her £7.00 to get there and back. That zero hours
None of the participants will be allowed to address Tory or Liberal policy as they do not have the Right to Reply.
Dem's the rules.
I think the "Opposition debate" next week will modestly help everyone who's in it - the previous debates seem to have improved the view of nearly all participants.
And I've found myself in France along the S Coast.
I find it risible that we talk about Labour having lower turnout among its supporters. Anyone who can't be arsed to go and vote once every five years can't be counted as a supporter, in my view. Most of them live in city constituencies so the polling station really will be just round the corner.
When I was a young shaver, I too had casual work down at a "local". Nothing so grand sounding as a contract (zero hours or otherwise). I would often be told to go home if the place was quiet. I would often be out of pocket for the day.
Thought about buying a place there but in the end opted for something nearer home, but it was a definite maybe for a while.
The really interesting exchanges for most voters will be Ed v Nigel. Ed is clearly vulnerable on immigration, but does have the opportunity to highlight Nigel's Thatcherism. That may give traditional Labour voters thinking about UKIP pause for thought, while it will appeal to UKIP-inclined Tories: a tasty double whammy for Ed if he can pull it off. If, of course, being the operative word.
Having done OK against Paxman and the 7-way debate Ed is probably due a disaster. And we know that whatever happens the Sun, Express, Mail, Telegraph and Times headlines are already written.
"I think I can see why so many on here are in awe of the powers of your predictions."
I've always thought it was the natural cynicism of the Scots which produced some of the best comics of the last half century.
Don't you find this messianic belief in your leaders a little embarrassing and un Scottish?
Having said that I can't remember whether Jersey and Guernsey (which are foreign countries after all) are in the EU or EEA or not.
Labour's beloved Benefit Culture.