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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Interesting betting on Scotland just opened
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Interesting betting on Scotland just opened
I am selling the turnout which just looks far too high. I can’t decide on the LAB/SNP seats yet because a lot could happen but I do believe LAB’s losses have been maxed out
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Out leafleting in Blairgowrie this morning. The local tories think they are in with a chance against Pete Wishart. Amazing what people can talk themselves into.
Good lord did I really get a first?
I closed out my SNP position last night.
(I also don`t live in Scotland) I think Lab seats will be between 10-20 and it`s likely to be in the high teens atleast IMO.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11515276/Revealed-Full-text-of-Nicola-Sturgeon-memo.html#disqus_thread
Here's a flavour......
Let's get this right.
Nicola Sturgeon denies it.
Fiona Hyslop denies it.
The French Ambassador denies it.
The French Consul General denies it.
The person who wrote the memo doesn't believe it.
Great story, chief.
Let's say the probabilities are (being generous to the LDs):
0 Seats - 10%
1 Seat - 30%
2 Seats - 40%
3 Seats - 10%
4 Seats - 10%
(5+ Seats - 0%)
Then the Expected Value is +0.4 Units, and that's with a generous reading of the LDs chances.
Wouldn't touch any of the others with a bargepole, too much going on in Scotland and the result could be anything from 10-40 to 40-10 between Lab and SNP
But then what would I know, I had money on Liverpool at Arsenal.
I'd have thought in Scotland we'd see a spread of something like 0.8-1.2
2010 Scotland (subsample) YouGov 10/10 certain to vote figure: 74%
Smells like a sell, sell, sell
As a Kipper I would be happy with 10% of the vote but I genuinely feel it could be quite a bit more than that.
https://twitter.com/DPMcBride/status/584101639218454528
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11515477/Conservative-candidates-four-way-love-split-adds-to-voter-confusion.html
I think Ipsos Mori will be the key one with the their methodology, to compare all those giving a VI and the difference between those 10/10 to vote VI.
I have dodgy blood. But you all knew that anyway...
It is hard to see Sturgeon being caught out as a liar. What evidence would be required for that?
The Speaker's seat will count to their affiliated party's result (i.e John Bercow as Conservative).
If Bercow is not re-elected Speaker by the Commons -presumably he is entitled to sit on whichever side of the House he chooses?
http://damianpmcbride.tumblr.com/post/115470278209/the-truth-will-out-or-will-it
He reckons that these minutes are dry and verbatim, the more that is correct the less likely there is to be a glaring error compared to what actually happened at the meeting (which no-one seems to deny actually happened).
Reading between the lines he says that Nicola is denying because it suits her, and the CS and the French are unlikely to intervene during the election campaign- unless of course the Telegraph is holding back something for tomorrow? If they have an audio recording then she could be cooked bread.
What is Seatspotting?
Points are awarded on the following basis for the number of seats won by the SNP in the May 7th General Election:
0-19 seats = 0 pts,
20-24 seats = 5 pts,
25-29 seats = 10 pts,
30-34 seats = 15 pts,
35-39 seats = 20 pts,
40-44 seats = 30 pts,
45-49 seats = 40 pts,
50-54 seats = 60 pts,
55-58 seats = 80 pts,
All 59 seats = 100 pts.
Sell turnover - low risk and probable winner.
I have said before that I think UKIP will have done really well if it gets 6 seats but three or less would be a big disappointment.
Rugby Union, Test Cricket and Hockey are my sports.
Traditionally a Speaker steps down and is immediately kicked up to the Lords, but one could well imagine a dethroned Bercow hanging around with the reds to cause as much trouble as possible in a very hung Parliament, given the formality of a Tory win in a Buckingham by-election.
Christ, our defence on Wednesday against Blackburn Rovers will include, Kolo the Clown and Dejan Lovren
Though, I'm on sabbatical till the end of May, so I can give up on the football for the rest of the season.
Looks like the Crusaders have had the best of the first half. Bath and Northampton in action later, once sufficient sorrows drowned!
The ComRes favourability numbers for the big two are:
Lab +29% / -45%
Con +28% / -46%
http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/IoS-SM-Political-Poll-March-2015-6572.pdf
If people don't think either party is going to win a majority then there's no reason for their soft supporters to make a Lab/Con forced choice. They can pick one of the minor parties that they feel more aligned to instead.
The polls should be treated with considerable caution because usual contact patterns will be disrupted.
Not very likely, obviously, but if either party has made the sort of breakthrough to get them that far, getting to 340 or above probably isn't that much more improbable and the downside isn't big, as it can't go negative.
The odd SPIN rule to count Bercow as a Tory also helps this bet a tiny bit.
Near impossible to prove though.
I doubt this damages Sturgeon - 'Ed's not up to it' is barely controversial and 'I'd prefer Cameron as PM' so unlikely it can be considered either fiendishly machiavellian or a simple misunderstanding.
The answer to the first question is clearly yes. There is no question that it will be easier for the SNP to maintain their dominant position at Holyrood next year if they can contrive fights with a Tory led government. The object of the SNP is to drive a wedge between the rUK and the Scots. Having a Labour government with a number of Scottish Ministers will not achieve that. And there is little doubt that Salmond is going to be a nuisance who needs to appreciate and learn that the torch has passed on.
The second question is whether it was said. This strikes me as vanishingly unlikely. It is the sort of thing you might say to your very closest allies in private. To make such comments to a foreign diplomat you are meeting for the first time would be so far as beyond indiscrete as to be almost unimaginable. Especially when you know civil servants are listening in.
Which does raise the further question of what is going on?
I've taken precautions.
I have a hole for Conservative Majority, but I'm not going to be lying awake at night worrying about that right now.
I agree with DavidL. Even if true it would be stupidly indiscrete, and Sturgeon is not stupid.
In reality it is going to be deniable for any party, if the document has been meddled with, whoever did it is unlikely to be more than a sympathiser who will be disowned with alacrity.
If on the other hand the document hasn't been meddled with, and was just "garbled account of a routine meeting" in which person A used an unfortunately turn of phrase to describe something innocuous, which person B misunderstood and relayed the wrong interpretation to person C, who wrote it down, then no one comes out of it with much credit, and lots of people will look rather foolish for having made a lot of piss and wind over a transcription error.
Considering we've not had a Tory majority opinion poll since 2011, and we've had many Lab majority polls since then, there's a huge rick on the market, whether by accident or design.
OldKingCole Posts 2:33PM
You guys take the biscuit. The memo reveals nothing since it is third hand tripe probably not even from the FCO!
Sturgeon hasn't denied talking about Salmond because no-body has asked her and that is because it is another piece of the jig saw which tells you it is nonsence. If she really didn't know what Salmond intended to do at Westminster why on earth would she confide that to the French Ambassador!
The memo is ridiculous and the story is who wrote it and who leaked it.
Meanwhile, on social media evryone with an onze of sence is putting as much distance as possible between themselves and the story. Except you guys of course!
It would be nice to think Labour were up to contriving and executing such a convoluted wheeze, but my money is on a cock-up.
Cock-ups are, in my experience, far more common than conspiracies.
The fact that they were accurate meant that there was no mileage in it for the anti-UKIP media.
A group suspected of being a front for Islamic extremists claims it can control as many as 30 seats in the general election and boasts of acting a "kingmaker"
Thats nice!
Nobody has suggested that the Ambassador revealed her own preferences.
We are only discussing Sturgeon's political preferences. So shouldn't the statement have said:
the French Ambassador and Nicola Sturgeon "did not discuss her political preferences"
Why "their" ?
Ed Miliband has enjoyed a particularly significant boost to his personal polling, however. The Labour leader has seen a six-point rise on last week, up from -21% to -15% (29% approve, 44% disapprove) with his net rating among Labour voters rising from +53% to +59%.
David Cameron’s approval rating is largely unchanged at +1% overall; both approval an disapproval have seen a one point rise.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/04/general-election-2015-tories-labour-neck-and-neck-opinium-observer-poll
And vice versa, Tories have given Cameorn the massive thumbs up, like a North Korean asked about Kim Jong Un, for basically the past 5 years.
Mr. Smithson, not a spread-bettor[sp], but that did jump out at me as well.