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SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft finds Clegg in trouble in Sheffield Hallam but the LDs holding as well can be expected elsewhere

Ashcroft detail from Sheffield Hallam where Clegg in trouble
LAB GAIN pic.twitter.com/P9zLFxGFmc

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited April 2015
    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    Lib-Dems to lose about half their seats (ending up close to 30 seats?) seems about right.

    "Were you you for Clegg" could be the moment of election night?
  • I took part in this Sheffield Hallam poll.

    I've been saying for a while that the Lib Dems here have been really working the seat, and Lord A found the same

    On the ground, the campaign is being very closely contested. While 53% in these seats said they had had literature, letters, phone calls or visits from the Conservatives, 52% said they had heard from the Lib Dems. There were variations between seats, though activity levels were high throughout. The highest contact rate of all was from the Lib Dems in Sheffield Hallam, where 76% said they had heard from Nick Clegg’s team; we will know in 35 days if it has paid off.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    So for the sake of argument, say we get a Hung Parliament with enough LibDems to make a majority but Clegg loses his seat, do the LibDems have a method for getting a new leader in a reasonable time-frame or does everybody have to wait around while they organize a ballot of their members?

    Or does the next PM just hastily en-lord-ify Nick Clegg then have him just carry on as if nothing happened?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Of these only Camborne & Redruth looks clearcut.

    Cambridge suffers the defect that the poll was taken during holiday time for the students (who make up 20% of the electorate).

    St Austell & Newquay and North Devon look promising for the Conservatives, but we don't really know how reliable constituency polling is generally and in particular whether the failure to name the candidates makes much impact.

    The rest all look like complete toss-ups.
  • So for the sake of argument, say we get a Hung Parliament with enough LibDems to make a majority but Clegg loses his seat, do the LibDems have a method for getting a new leader in a reasonable time-frame or does everybody have to wait around while they organize a ballot of their members?

    Or does the next PM just hastily en-lord-ify Nick Clegg then have him just carry on as if nothing happened?

    I think they'll have a coronation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    Alistair (earlier thread) Actually McCain led Obama in many swing state polls in September 2008, in fact in Ohio McCain led for most September polls until the end of the month and the impact of the Lehmans crash filtered through
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Ohio
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2015
    Deleted for lack of clarity. :smile:
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Plenty of UKIP votes to be squeezed in the seats where these polls show the LibDems just hanging on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    antifrank said:

    Of these only Camborne & Redruth looks clearcut.

    Cambridge suffers the defect that the poll was taken during holiday time for the students (who make up 20% of the electorate).

    St Austell & Newquay and North Devon look promising for the Conservatives, but we don't really know how reliable constituency polling is generally and in particular whether the failure to name the candidates makes much impact.

    The rest all look like complete toss-ups.

    I've just gone balls crazy deep in Camborne and Redruth at 1-2.
  • ItwasriggedItwasrigged Posts: 154
    This might have ben posted before but I got a good laugh from it. http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/the-view-from-england-the-union-is-over/
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Plenty of UKIP votes to be squeezed in the seats where these polls show the LibDems just hanging on.

    Plenty of UKIP posters and banners out in Falmouth last week
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Massive UKIP squeeze. Go to bed with Nige, wake up with Ed indeed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    How much are Labour selling their mugs for?

    £20 gets you a Tory #LabourMug:

    https://www.conservatives.com/labourmugs
  • The most interesting thing from this Ashcroft polling, UKIP get squeezed like the a Chippendale's arse during a hen night in Blackpool.

    Can they get squeezed any more?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    Disgusting.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited April 2015
    This election is gong to be all about turnout. And in England and Wales Tory voters, whether voting Tory or tactically for the LibDems, are going to be far more motivated than Labour voters, whether voting Labour or tactically for the LibDems. Then there is Scotland, where by far the most motivated voters will be voting to oust Labour MPs. More and more, it seems to me, the question is not whether the Tories win the most seats, but whether they scrape an overall majority - actual or de facto.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited April 2015

    The most interesting thing from this Ashcroft polling, UKIP get squeezed like the a Chippendale's arse during a hen night in Blackpool.

    Can they get squeezed any more?

    The blues will certainly be trying. Given that the noble lord found that 53% of the Kippers in these seats would prefer a Tory majority, there seems to be some scope.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    Grubby.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Lord Ashcroft on naming candidates

    'On balance I continue to think that when people are prompted to consider their own area and the local candidates, an MP’s personal reputation should be baked in to their voting decisions. This should be especially true a few weeks before an election, when people are inundated with literature adorned with images of the local hero’s beaming countenance. Just as results might change if you asked whether people would vote for “David Cameron’s Conservatives” or “Ed Miliband’s Labour”, I suspect that prompting with the candidate’s name at a general election puts too much importance on one of the many factors that go into in an individual’s decision.'
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    You might have a point there.
    Lord A in his commentary says he doesn't undertake named candidates polling as the LibDem already do but this with a favourable warm up question.

    Well, there's a sensible solution to that problem - Don't do the warm up question !!

    His "your own constituency" question mitigates the problem somewhat but seasoned PBers will be well aware that the favourability rating of most LibDem MP's is way above other parties and it seems bonkers to me at this stage of the campaign not to have the named candidate question as we routinely see in all US Congressional contests.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Thankfully Cambridge looks safe - I'm bawdeep there.

    Torbay and A/St Ives look on a knife edge.



  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    Afternoon all :)

    I have to say, as a former LD activist, these don't look at all bad. Plenty of time for the constituency "ground war" to have an effect. Indeed, some of those polls show an improving tend for the LDs (and the Conservatives as well to be fair) but a lot of time to turn things more favourably.

    Of those, I reckon all bar Camborne are potential LD holds - St Austell will be difficult, no question and all will be tough fights but a 7% deficit is retrievable. I worked in Carshalton & Wallington in 2005 - I reckoned we started behind the Conservatives but caught up and went ahead in the last couple of weeks of campaigning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    edited April 2015
    TimB (earlier) The low Labor Force Participation rate is mainly a reflection of the aging population according to the CBO half of the 3% decline in labor-force participation is due to ageing of the workforce and over 65 baby boomers dropping out and retiring. Since 2010 the share of discouraged workers following the Crash has also declined, particularly amongst 25-54 year olds who will have left College and are not nearing retirement and most likely to be looking for work
    http://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-the-truth-behind-it/
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    Disgusting.
    Attention seeking, at least that's what David Beckham just told me he thought of it

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    You'd vote Labour in Hallam to unseat Clegg?

    If you did, and the Cons got back with 295 seats, and the LDs with 30 sans Clegg, then that might rule out a 2nd LD-Con coalition.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    The crucial question for LibDem seats is which is better: asking for VI or asking for VI with a prompt to think about the constituency and candidates or (as in LibDems' own polls) specifically naming the candidates.Ashcroft's commentary is cautious about the desirability of prompting, since he feels the view of local candidates may be baked into the overall VI, and specifically prompting for this aspect may distort the result (like saying "Bearing in mind concerns about the NHS, how would you vote?").

    If the general VI is best, then all 8 LibDems are stuffed, e.g. Clegg is 12 points adrift and Huppert 6 points. Who knows, really?

    By comparison, "think about the constituency" doesn't seem to do very much to Con/Lab seats, though there are modest differences in both directions.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,222

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    Disgusting.
    I think it's funny. It would be hilarious if the Lib Dems end up propping up Labour, much to the chagrin of Tories voting tactically to save the Lib Dems.
  • TGOHF said:

    Thankfully Cambridge looks safe - I'm bawdeep there.

    Torbay and A/St Ives look on a knife edge.



    Cheers for the Cambridge advice.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I have to say, as a former LD activist, these don't look at all bad. Plenty of time for the constituency "ground war" to have an effect. Indeed, some of those polls show an improving tend for the LDs (and the Conservatives as well to be fair) but a lot of time to turn things more favourably.

    Of those, I reckon all bar Camborne are potential LD holds - St Austell will be difficult, no question and all will be tough fights but a 7% deficit is retrievable. I worked in Carshalton & Wallington in 2005 - I reckoned we started behind the Conservatives but caught up and went ahead in the last couple of weeks of campaigning.

    The Conservatives are winning the ground war in Torbay and North Devon, if Lord Ashcroft's polling on contact numbers is to be believed, and are neck and neck with the Lib Dems in the other blue/yellow marginals.
  • Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    You'd vote Labour in Hallam to unseat Clegg?

    If you did, and the Cons got back with 295 seats, and the LDs with 30 sans Clegg, then that might rule out a 2nd LD-Con coalition.
    Well I really want to see Mark Reckless unseated.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2015
    Under 25s are massively unrepresented in the Cambridge poll, they've had to upweight them by nearly five.
  • Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    The weakness in the Lord A constituency polls is that we still have no named candidates which will have a definite incumbency boost for the LibDems.

    Cambridge and Cornwall North are in the "JackW Dozen" and these polls confirm my ARSE as LibDem HOLD and TCTC respectively.

    You might have a point there.
    Lord A in his commentary says he doesn't undertake named candidates polling as the LibDem already do but this with a favourable warm up question.

    Well, there's a sensible solution to that problem - Don't do the warm up question !!

    His "your own constituency" question mitigates the problem somewhat but seasoned PBers will be well aware that the favourability rating of most LibDem MP's is way above other parties and it seems bonkers to me at this stage of the campaign not to have the named candidate question as we routinely see in all US Congressional contests.
    It would be interesting if "your constituency" were modified by "your own constituency with candidate A for party A, B for Party B.. Etc. "

    I don't know. Jury's out for me. But I think it might make a smidgen of difference because it will replicate the ballot papers the voters will be faced with in the polling booth.
  • This does fit in with the Lib Dems not quite so private polling that has them doing better than the national polling suggests.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    Disgusting.
    Criminal and disgusting
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,471
    I hope Huppert holds on in Cambridge. I don't agree with a lot of what he says, but IMHO he's the sort of person we need more of in parliament.

    If I lived a few miles to the east I'd be very tempted to vote for him. A mate who's an out-and-out greeny respects him highly, and says he will vote for him this time (he didn't in 2010). His wife's going green, again. :-)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    Daily politics using a political betting pie chart!!

    How Unite members voted in 2010
    Lab 40%
    Con 28%
    LD 20%
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Big surge in economic optimism and Conservatives getting more on top of their ground game has lead to the former kippers switching back in Camborne.
  • Londoners are overwhelmingly against Scottish Nationalists holding the balance of power over the next government, a poll reveals today.

    By more than four to one they do not want the SNP to gain enough seats at Westminster to influence who gets into Downing Street after May 7.

    The YouGov survey for the Standard also showed that if there is a hung Parliament, nearly half of Londoners would prefer a formal coalition or governing deal involving the Liberal Democrats with either Labour or the Conservatives.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/londoners-strongly-opposed-to-snp-holding-balance-of-power-10148695.html
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...

    That really only works if Labour wins the overall election, which they won't. In the unlikely event that Clegg does lose, it will spark a wry smile of consolation rather than the joy that Portillo's defeat caused.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Thankfully Cambridge looks safe - I'm bawdeep there.

    Torbay and A/St Ives look on a knife edge.



    Cheers for the Cambridge advice.
    Cambridge now 4/11 on Betfair sportsbook - Labour 2/1 (!)

    The streets are a sea of yellow banners and signs - and the yellow canvassers have been banging on doors.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    The crucial question for LibDem seats is which is better: asking for VI or asking for VI with a prompt to think about the constituency and candidates or (as in LibDems' own polls) specifically naming the candidates.Ashcroft's commentary is cautious about the desirability of prompting, since he feels the view of local candidates may be baked into the overall VI, and specifically prompting for this aspect may distort the result (like saying "Bearing in mind concerns about the NHS, how would you vote?").

    If the general VI is best, then all 8 LibDems are stuffed, e.g. Clegg is 12 points adrift and Huppert 6 points. Who knows, really?

    By comparison, "think about the constituency" doesn't seem to do very much to Con/Lab seats, though there are modest differences in both directions.

    Not naming candidates in constituencies is half baked especially if the candidate (Clegg, Farage or Soubry :smile: ) has a high local or national profile.

    Imagine a congressional poll without naming candidates 5 weeks from an election. Certainly not.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    You'd vote Labour in Hallam to unseat Clegg?

    If you did, and the Cons got back with 295 seats, and the LDs with 30 sans Clegg, then that might rule out a 2nd LD-Con coalition.
    Well I really want to see Mark Reckless unseated.
    Even in preference to David Cameron?

    You know my views on the man, but it seems out of priority to what I suspect you really want.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Another example, in a long line, of why UKIP are a major drag on the euroseptic argument:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32144437

    "UKIP: School children 'brainwashed' with pro-EU propaganda"

    Utter idiocy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,500

    Londoners are overwhelmingly against Scottish Nationalists holding the balance of power over the next government, a poll reveals today.

    By more than four to one they do not want the SNP to gain enough seats at Westminster to influence who gets into Downing Street after May 7.

    The YouGov survey for the Standard also showed that if there is a hung Parliament, nearly half of Londoners would prefer a formal coalition or governing deal involving the Liberal Democrats with either Labour or the Conservatives.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/londoners-strongly-opposed-to-snp-holding-balance-of-power-10148695.html

    They want to keep robbing us , no surprise there as we fund their largesse.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    These are gr8 polls for the tories. Seems to me Ashcrofts got the balance about right. If you don't name at all LDs lose all 8. If you warm them up they do better. He's struck a middle path of naming.

    Gotta remember its not just a local vote but a national one too and like it or not on May 7 pple vote for Cameron or Miliband in No.10. Simples. Its not the US where local MPs have so much influence. The one who changes lives at local level is the man or woman in No.10 Downing St.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...

    Some of the movements in Hallam are rather odd. Kippers voting tactically for Clegg or for Labour?

    Perhaps like Lenin they believe "the worse, the better"!
  • Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    You'd vote Labour in Hallam to unseat Clegg?

    If you did, and the Cons got back with 295 seats, and the LDs with 30 sans Clegg, then that might rule out a 2nd LD-Con coalition.
    Well I really want to see Mark Reckless unseated.
    Even in preference to David Cameron?

    You know my views on the man, but it seems out of priority to what I suspect you really want.
    I'm a bit irrational when it comes to him.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Npexmp. Not seen a reply to my bet offer?????
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2015

    Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...

    Fools gold for Labour.

    For PBers hopefully Clegg's odds will lengthen and site members will be able to cash in.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Artist said:

    Under 25s are massively unrepresented in the Cambridge poll, they've had to upweight them by nearly five.

    Cambridge students - well a big chunk are foreign these days as £30k fees are more welcome than £9k fees - and there are a lot of posh types who wont vote Labour. The tutors are probably red to the core of their Moscow loving hearts mind you.

    Anglia Ruskin probably more ripe for Labour - but property prices and rents are pushing students to commute more.

    Plus you have to get the lazy oiks to register..
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Londoners are overwhelmingly against Scottish Nationalists holding the balance of power over the next government, a poll reveals today.

    By more than four to one they do not want the SNP to gain enough seats at Westminster to influence who gets into Downing Street after May 7.

    The YouGov survey for the Standard also showed that if there is a hung Parliament, nearly half of Londoners would prefer a formal coalition or governing deal involving the Liberal Democrats with either Labour or the Conservatives.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/londoners-strongly-opposed-to-snp-holding-balance-of-power-10148695.html

    Once upon a time there was an anti-Tory vote.

    Now there's an anti-everyone vote.

    The final polls will influence votes, with the probable effect of squeezing the under-card out of the game.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    HYUFD said:

    TimB (earlier) The low Labor Force Participation rate is mainly a reflection of the aging population according to the CBO half of the 3% decline in labor-force participation is due to ageing of the workforce and over 65 baby boomers dropping out and retiring. Since 2010 the share of discouraged workers following the Crash has also declined, particularly amongst 25-54 year olds who will have left College and are not nearing retirement and most likely to be looking for work
    http://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-the-truth-behind-it/

    A strongly rising participation rate in Britain where we have the exact same trends though. Stronger jobs market and economy here. Good reasons the Fed worries about labour market weakness.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...

    Some of the movements in Hallam are rather odd. Kippers voting tactically for Clegg or for Labour?

    Perhaps like Lenin they believe "the worse, the better"!
    Kippers down in all the seats shown not just Hallam.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    edited April 2015
    JackW said:

    The crucial question for LibDem seats is which is better: asking for VI or asking for VI with a prompt to think about the constituency and candidates or (as in LibDems' own polls) specifically naming the candidates.Ashcroft's commentary is cautious about the desirability of prompting, since he feels the view of local candidates may be baked into the overall VI, and specifically prompting for this aspect may distort the result (like saying "Bearing in mind concerns about the NHS, how would you vote?").

    If the general VI is best, then all 8 LibDems are stuffed, e.g. Clegg is 12 points adrift and Huppert 6 points. Who knows, really?

    By comparison, "think about the constituency" doesn't seem to do very much to Con/Lab seats, though there are modest differences in both directions.

    Not naming candidates in constituencies is half baked especially if the candidate (Clegg, Farage or Soubry :smile: ) has a high local or national profile.

    Imagine a congressional poll without naming candidates 5 weeks from an election. Certainly not.

    Given that we now know the candidates in every seat (inc. minor parties) I am not sure why you wouldn't just present someone with a mock-up ballot paper and ask them to make a mark. It then contains the same local and national information that the voter will have in the ballot box.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    BenM said:

    Another example, in a long line, of why UKIP are a major drag on the euroseptic argument:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32144437

    "UKIP: School children 'brainwashed' with pro-EU propaganda"

    Utter idiocy.

    No you are completely and utterly wrong. It has long been a left wing big state policy to indoctrinate children politically

    http://youtu.be/COt65HZCJaA
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Pretty good polls for the blues. Long way to go yet, though.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...

    That really only works if Labour wins the overall election, which they won't. In the unlikely event that Clegg does lose, it will spark a wry smile of consolation rather than the joy that Portillo's defeat caused.

    It would be more like Chris Patten in 1992. Ran a successful campaign ans surprise national victory but lost his own seat.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    This does fit in with the Lib Dems not quite so private polling that has them doing better than the national polling suggests.

    I am not sure it will be the same picture in seats where Labour is in second place.

  • Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...

    That really only works if Labour wins the overall election, which they won't. In the unlikely event that Clegg does lose, it will spark a wry smile of consolation rather than the joy that Portillo's defeat caused.

    Well by Portillo Moment I mean an individual deceleration worth staying up for rather than the result being a national indication.

    Given Ed Balls should be safe in his constituency I can't think of too many other potentials, Danny Alexander i guess?

    Plus Clegg strikes me as the kind of bloke who might give a David Mellor style concession speech!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited April 2015
    The potential anti-Conservative tactical voter in Camborne and Redruth is going to be very, very confused now.

    Expect barcharts from UKIP, Lib Dem and Labour showing them all as "The only party that can win here"
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Lot of LD ignoring this from Ashcroft -

    "The upshot is that the Conservatives have consolidated their position in Camborne & Redruth, North Devon and St Austell & Newquay, where they lead by thirteen, seven and six points respectively. North Cornwall and Torbay, both tied in my previous polls, and St Ives, where I found a one-point Lib Dem lead, have all edged slightly in the Lib Dems’ direction – though the two parties remain within the margin of error of each other in all three"

    The LD holds are too close to call - MOE. 3 of the 4 LD holds are 3% or less.

    re sheffield hallam. the tory campaign team will do everything to get clegg winning his seat.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    antifrank said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I have to say, as a former LD activist, these don't look at all bad. Plenty of time for the constituency "ground war" to have an effect. Indeed, some of those polls show an improving tend for the LDs (and the Conservatives as well to be fair) but a lot of time to turn things more favourably.

    Of those, I reckon all bar Camborne are potential LD holds - St Austell will be difficult, no question and all will be tough fights but a 7% deficit is retrievable. I worked in Carshalton & Wallington in 2005 - I reckoned we started behind the Conservatives but caught up and went ahead in the last couple of weeks of campaigning.

    The Conservatives are winning the ground war in Torbay and North Devon, if Lord Ashcroft's polling on contact numbers is to be believed, and are neck and neck with the Lib Dems in the other blue/yellow marginals.
    I believe these are polls from earlier in the month so, in effect, before the campaign started. As any activist will tell you, there's what you do before the campaign and what you do during the campaign.

    Of course there has been an ongoing level of activity varying from constituency to constituency but what happens from now on will be of an order of magnitude greater.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Rob, Balls should be safe, but it's not a gimme by any stretch.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...

    Some of the movements in Hallam are rather odd. Kippers voting tactically for Clegg or for Labour?

    Perhaps like Lenin they believe "the worse, the better"!
    Kippers down in all the seats shown not just Hallam.
    In a Tory/LD seat I could understand it, but it makes no sense in Hallam.

    But the fact the Purple Peril fade in all eight seats may well be a predictor that they will not do as well as the polls, particularly in marginal seats.
  • This does fit in with the Lib Dems not quite so private polling that has them doing better than the national polling suggests.

    I am not sure it will be the same picture in seats where Labour is in second place.

    Indeed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    So of these LD held marginal seats, the LDs hold 4 and lose 2 to the Tories and 1 to Labour (and the Tories hold Camborne) which suggests the LDs should get around 30 seats which would again likely give them the balance of power on their own or with other parties. As Clegg could lose his seat they will probably not go into coalition again but provide confidence and supply. I knew Kevin Foster from Warwick days when I campaigned with him, interesting he is in the tightest race, a 1% LD lead and tied in September all to play for, I suggest he target some of the 17% voting UKIP, if he can squeeze that he may go over the line
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited April 2015

    Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...

    Some of the movements in Hallam are rather odd. Kippers voting tactically for Clegg or for Labour?

    Perhaps like Lenin they believe "the worse, the better"!
    Kippers down in all the seats shown not just Hallam.
    In a Tory/LD seat I could understand it, but it makes no sense in Hallam.

    But the fact the Purple Peril fade in all eight seats may well be a predictor that they will not do as well as the polls, particularly in marginal seats.
    I think the November poll was an outlier.

    Sheffield Hallam is one of those places that is economically/demographically/socially very resistant to UKIP
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    edited April 2015
    Straw poll - ZHCs changes have gone down badly among my whatsapp group.

    Big business letter - nobody cares.

    Martin Freeman - F*** him lecturing us on how to vote
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...

    That really only works if Labour wins the overall election, which they won't. In the unlikely event that Clegg does lose, it will spark a wry smile of consolation rather than the joy that Portillo's defeat caused.


    Plus Clegg strikes me as the kind of bloke who might give a David Mellor style concession speech!
    Wearing a Chelsea football strip?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    “We’re not actually advocating an entire ban on these contracts. Sometimes people like to use them.”

    Who said this then?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Lennon said:

    JackW said:

    The crucial question for LibDem seats is which is better: asking for VI or asking for VI with a prompt to think about the constituency and candidates or (as in LibDems' own polls) specifically naming the candidates.Ashcroft's commentary is cautious about the desirability of prompting, since he feels the view of local candidates may be baked into the overall VI, and specifically prompting for this aspect may distort the result (like saying "Bearing in mind concerns about the NHS, how would you vote?").

    If the general VI is best, then all 8 LibDems are stuffed, e.g. Clegg is 12 points adrift and Huppert 6 points. Who knows, really?

    By comparison, "think about the constituency" doesn't seem to do very much to Con/Lab seats, though there are modest differences in both directions.

    Not naming candidates in constituencies is half baked especially if the candidate (Clegg, Farage or Soubry :smile: ) has a high local or national profile.

    Imagine a congressional poll without naming candidates 5 weeks from an election. Certainly not.

    Given that we now know the candidates in every seat (inc. minor parties) I am not sure why you wouldn't just present someone with a mock-up ballot paper and ask them to make a mark. It then contains the same local and national information that the voter will have in the ballot box.
    Indeed.

    Although face to face political polling has long gone it's perfectly straight foward to undertake named candidate polling by phone or on-line

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724

    This is the thrust of the Fink Times piece. And certainly backs up what I've noticed anecdotely across lots of news sites.

    When asked in detail - it comes down to the Yes, Yes, No bloc = I prefer Cameron as PM, the Tories are better on the economy, but I won't vote for them.

    Only a small % fall into the Because They're Tories segment - this is the 4% the Tories will attempt to push over the edge into their camp on polling day.

    It's 4 levels of sub-segment polling by Populus IIRC - great digging on what will convert a ballot day voter.

    Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...

    Some of the movements in Hallam are rather odd. Kippers voting tactically for Clegg or for Labour?

    Perhaps like Lenin they believe "the worse, the better"!
    Kippers down in all the seats shown not just Hallam.
    In a Tory/LD seat I could understand it, but it makes no sense in Hallam.

    But the fact the Purple Peril fade in all eight seats may well be a predictor that they will not do as well as the polls, particularly in marginal seats.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    "This deal is getting worse all the time!"
  • Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    "This deal is getting worse all the time!"
    I've dropped you an email already.

    You are free to vote how you feel in Ilford North, I am going to vote tactically here in Sheffield Hallam for the Cleggmeister.

    May God Have Mercy Upon My Soul
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited April 2015
    Day 3, anyone else getting impression tories are starting to walk this? Or anyone else sense the way the winds blowing?

    Dunno just everything seems to be piledriving tory at moment. Guess we need to see if other polls follow the trend.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    "This deal is getting worse all the time!"
    I've dropped you an email already.

    You are free to vote how you feel in Ilford North, I am going to vote tactically here in Sheffield Hallam for the Cleggmeister.

    May God Have Mercy Upon My Soul
    "But that was never a condition of our agreement, nor was giving Han to this bounty hunter!"
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    "This deal is getting worse all the time!"
    I am going to vote tactically here in Sheffield Hallam for the Cleggmeister.

    May God Have Mercy Upon My Soul
    Glitter Ball Fans for Clegg. :smile:

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    All I'm seeing from Labour is prat-falls. I assume this will change when Mandy is finally compelled to help them out. It was the same with Gordon.

    All I've noticed from the LDs is giving dads 3x more paternity pay. Whilst that will no doubt appeal to their own side - I can't see it having much impact.

    Day 3, anyone else getting impression tories are starting to walk this? Or anyone else sense the way the winds blowing?

    Dunno just everything seems to be piledriving tory at moment. Guess we need to see if other polls follow the trend.

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Day 3, anyone else getting impression tories are starting to walk this? Or anyone else sense the way the winds blowing?

    Dunno just everything seems to be piledriving tory at moment. Guess we need to see if other polls follow the trend.

    Labour are still very much in this, but they need to ensure that the relatively young and the DE contingent are registered and bother to vote.


  • Sheffield Hallam now shaping up to be the 'Portillo Moment' of election night...

    That really only works if Labour wins the overall election, which they won't. In the unlikely event that Clegg does lose, it will spark a wry smile of consolation rather than the joy that Portillo's defeat caused.


    Plus Clegg strikes me as the kind of bloke who might give a David Mellor style concession speech!
    Wearing a Chelsea football strip?
    Was there ever any truth to the Mellor Chelsea strip stuff?!

    I remember seeing some footage of him a while back doing exercises in his office when he was a minister. Truly disturbing images...
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    O/T The Telegraph site has a little quiz this morning designed to say which party most matches your views. A little amusement as it asks about how important you think a proposal is as well as whether you agree with it or do not care. Apparently I match most closely with UKIP, which is hardly a surprise.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11471048/who-should-I-vote-for.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    What's interesting is that if the "go to bed with Nige, wake up with Ed" line is working in these 8 now that the campaign proper has started, the Lab/Con marginals may start looking much more favourable for the Tories as well.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @VickiYoung01: Clegg will need Tories in Sheffield Hallam to get behind him if he's to win. Poll showing Labour ahead might help persuade them. #GE2015
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    "This deal is getting worse all the time!"
    I am going to vote tactically here in Sheffield Hallam for the Cleggmeister.
    Along with lots of other sheffield hallam tories. If the tories don't break the 325 barrier then they need Clegg in parliament. Simples.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Any Lib Dems or Labour supporters in Rochester who would like to vote trade with me in Sheffield Hallam, please vanilla message me.

    "This deal is getting worse all the time!"
    I've dropped you an email already.

    You are free to vote how you feel in Ilford North, I am going to vote tactically here in Sheffield Hallam for the Cleggmeister.

    May God Have Mercy Upon My Soul
    "But that was never a condition of our agreement, nor was giving Han to this bounty hunter!"

    Paging Sunil, paging Sunil.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Afternoon all, really looking forward to the first poll with the Tories on 37 or 38%. But if they are, what will Labour be on?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    Afternoon all, really looking forward to the first poll with the Tories on 37 or 38%. But if they are, what will Labour be on?

    40%
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    So there's about 700,000 people on zero-hours contracts, of which 34% would prefer to work more hours = 240,000 people.

    Labour - the party of the <1% ?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    For betting purposes, I'm splitting the difference between the standard question and constituency question. That would mean the Lib Dems lose 7 of these 8 seats, the exception being Cambridge (where Huppert does indeed seem to have a monster incumbency effect).
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Was photographing Labour leaflet - noticed phrase - 'The next election is a straight choice between a Labour Government fighting for you, your family and the NHS or five more years of the Conservatives putting the most privileged first.'

    No mention of LDs on that page, though their candidate Steven Williams is gay. Am wondering if it was a deliberate dig at him or not? Reminds me of Bermondsey for some reason.
  • more ZHC fun and games

    BBC website:
    Chris Leslie says Labour would write the legislation in a way that prevents employers from terminating employment when the 12-week period it's specifying comes to an end. "You can frame the legislation in a way that doesn't allow that kind of perverse circumstance to happen," he says.

    This is fascinating. Effectively a ZHC contract will give the employee significantly more rights than an employee on a permanent contract (who has pretty much none for the first 12 months)

    policy making "on the fly"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Labour is going to try and squeeze the life out of that 9% Green vote I'd imagine.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited April 2015
    ELBOW update - last night's YG Lab lead (the first since Saturday night's YG) has made a slight dent in the Tory lead for the part-ELBOW so far this week. Was 1.1% Con lead, now 0.8%.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I got Kipper too. Unsurprisingly. I'm a political mutt here.

    O/T The Telegraph site has a little quiz this morning designed to say which party most matches your views. A little amusement as it asks about how important you think a proposal is as well as whether you agree with it or do not care. Apparently I match most closely with UKIP, which is hardly a surprise.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11471048/who-should-I-vote-for.html

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    I note Bet365 changed their prices very quickly.

    Whoever is the trader there is on the ball :)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    MaxPB said:

    What's interesting is that if the "go to bed with Nige, wake up with Ed" line is working in these 8 now that the campaign proper has started, the Lab/Con marginals may start looking much more favourable for the Tories as well.

    On the other hand, Labour are benefitting by squeezing the Green vote. Though the effect it has on different marginals will depend on what the previous levels of Green and UKIP support were in each individual seat, of course.
This discussion has been closed.