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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft finds Clegg in trouble in Sheffield Hallam but the LDs holding as well can be expected elsewhere
Ashcroft detail from Sheffield Hallam where Clegg in trouble
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"Were you you for Clegg" could be the moment of election night?
I've been saying for a while that the Lib Dems here have been really working the seat, and Lord A found the same
On the ground, the campaign is being very closely contested. While 53% in these seats said they had had literature, letters, phone calls or visits from the Conservatives, 52% said they had heard from the Lib Dems. There were variations between seats, though activity levels were high throughout. The highest contact rate of all was from the Lib Dems in Sheffield Hallam, where 76% said they had heard from Nick Clegg’s team; we will know in 35 days if it has paid off.
Or does the next PM just hastily en-lord-ify Nick Clegg then have him just carry on as if nothing happened?
Cambridge suffers the defect that the poll was taken during holiday time for the students (who make up 20% of the electorate).
St Austell & Newquay and North Devon look promising for the Conservatives, but we don't really know how reliable constituency polling is generally and in particular whether the failure to name the candidates makes much impact.
The rest all look like complete toss-ups.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Ohio
£20 gets you a Tory #LabourMug:
https://www.conservatives.com/labourmugs
Can they get squeezed any more?
'On balance I continue to think that when people are prompted to consider their own area and the local candidates, an MP’s personal reputation should be baked in to their voting decisions. This should be especially true a few weeks before an election, when people are inundated with literature adorned with images of the local hero’s beaming countenance. Just as results might change if you asked whether people would vote for “David Cameron’s Conservatives” or “Ed Miliband’s Labour”, I suspect that prompting with the candidate’s name at a general election puts too much importance on one of the many factors that go into in an individual’s decision.'
Well, there's a sensible solution to that problem - Don't do the warm up question !!
His "your own constituency" question mitigates the problem somewhat but seasoned PBers will be well aware that the favourability rating of most LibDem MP's is way above other parties and it seems bonkers to me at this stage of the campaign not to have the named candidate question as we routinely see in all US Congressional contests.
Torbay and A/St Ives look on a knife edge.
I have to say, as a former LD activist, these don't look at all bad. Plenty of time for the constituency "ground war" to have an effect. Indeed, some of those polls show an improving tend for the LDs (and the Conservatives as well to be fair) but a lot of time to turn things more favourably.
Of those, I reckon all bar Camborne are potential LD holds - St Austell will be difficult, no question and all will be tough fights but a 7% deficit is retrievable. I worked in Carshalton & Wallington in 2005 - I reckoned we started behind the Conservatives but caught up and went ahead in the last couple of weeks of campaigning.
http://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-the-truth-behind-it/
If you did, and the Cons got back with 295 seats, and the LDs with 30 sans Clegg, then that might rule out a 2nd LD-Con coalition.
If the general VI is best, then all 8 LibDems are stuffed, e.g. Clegg is 12 points adrift and Huppert 6 points. Who knows, really?
By comparison, "think about the constituency" doesn't seem to do very much to Con/Lab seats, though there are modest differences in both directions.
I don't know. Jury's out for me. But I think it might make a smidgen of difference because it will replicate the ballot papers the voters will be faced with in the polling booth.
If I lived a few miles to the east I'd be very tempted to vote for him. A mate who's an out-and-out greeny respects him highly, and says he will vote for him this time (he didn't in 2010). His wife's going green, again. :-)
How Unite members voted in 2010
Lab 40%
Con 28%
LD 20%
By more than four to one they do not want the SNP to gain enough seats at Westminster to influence who gets into Downing Street after May 7.
The YouGov survey for the Standard also showed that if there is a hung Parliament, nearly half of Londoners would prefer a formal coalition or governing deal involving the Liberal Democrats with either Labour or the Conservatives.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/londoners-strongly-opposed-to-snp-holding-balance-of-power-10148695.html
The streets are a sea of yellow banners and signs - and the yellow canvassers have been banging on doors.
Imagine a congressional poll without naming candidates 5 weeks from an election. Certainly not.
You know my views on the man, but it seems out of priority to what I suspect you really want.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32144437
"UKIP: School children 'brainwashed' with pro-EU propaganda"
Utter idiocy.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-liberal-democrat-leader
Gotta remember its not just a local vote but a national one too and like it or not on May 7 pple vote for Cameron or Miliband in No.10. Simples. Its not the US where local MPs have so much influence. The one who changes lives at local level is the man or woman in No.10 Downing St.
Perhaps like Lenin they believe "the worse, the better"!
For PBers hopefully Clegg's odds will lengthen and site members will be able to cash in.
Anglia Ruskin probably more ripe for Labour - but property prices and rents are pushing students to commute more.
Plus you have to get the lazy oiks to register..
Now there's an anti-everyone vote.
The final polls will influence votes, with the probable effect of squeezing the under-card out of the game.
http://youtu.be/COt65HZCJaA
Given Ed Balls should be safe in his constituency I can't think of too many other potentials, Danny Alexander i guess?
Plus Clegg strikes me as the kind of bloke who might give a David Mellor style concession speech!
Expect barcharts from UKIP, Lib Dem and Labour showing them all as "The only party that can win here"
"The upshot is that the Conservatives have consolidated their position in Camborne & Redruth, North Devon and St Austell & Newquay, where they lead by thirteen, seven and six points respectively. North Cornwall and Torbay, both tied in my previous polls, and St Ives, where I found a one-point Lib Dem lead, have all edged slightly in the Lib Dems’ direction – though the two parties remain within the margin of error of each other in all three"
The LD holds are too close to call - MOE. 3 of the 4 LD holds are 3% or less.
re sheffield hallam. the tory campaign team will do everything to get clegg winning his seat.
Of course there has been an ongoing level of activity varying from constituency to constituency but what happens from now on will be of an order of magnitude greater.
But the fact the Purple Peril fade in all eight seats may well be a predictor that they will not do as well as the polls, particularly in marginal seats.
Sheffield Hallam is one of those places that is economically/demographically/socially very resistant to UKIP
Big business letter - nobody cares.
Martin Freeman - F*** him lecturing us on how to vote
Who said this then?
Although face to face political polling has long gone it's perfectly straight foward to undertake named candidate polling by phone or on-line
This is the thrust of the Fink Times piece. And certainly backs up what I've noticed anecdotely across lots of news sites.
When asked in detail - it comes down to the Yes, Yes, No bloc = I prefer Cameron as PM, the Tories are better on the economy, but I won't vote for them.
Only a small % fall into the Because They're Tories segment - this is the 4% the Tories will attempt to push over the edge into their camp on polling day.
It's 4 levels of sub-segment polling by Populus IIRC - great digging on what will convert a ballot day voter.
You are free to vote how you feel in Ilford North, I am going to vote tactically here in Sheffield Hallam for the Cleggmeister.
May God Have Mercy Upon My Soul
Dunno just everything seems to be piledriving tory at moment. Guess we need to see if other polls follow the trend.
All I've noticed from the LDs is giving dads 3x more paternity pay. Whilst that will no doubt appeal to their own side - I can't see it having much impact.
I remember seeing some footage of him a while back doing exercises in his office when he was a minister. Truly disturbing images...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11471048/who-should-I-vote-for.html
Paging Sunil, paging Sunil.
Labour - the party of the <1% ?
No mention of LDs on that page, though their candidate Steven Williams is gay. Am wondering if it was a deliberate dig at him or not? Reminds me of Bermondsey for some reason.
BBC website:
Chris Leslie says Labour would write the legislation in a way that prevents employers from terminating employment when the 12-week period it's specifying comes to an end. "You can frame the legislation in a way that doesn't allow that kind of perverse circumstance to happen," he says.
This is fascinating. Effectively a ZHC contract will give the employee significantly more rights than an employee on a permanent contract (who has pretty much none for the first 12 months)
policy making "on the fly"
Lay UKIP @ 4.6 in Camborne.
Whoever is the trader there is on the ball