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SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And the winner is

But I do wonder if Ed Miliband’s “Hell Yeah”when Paxman asked him if he was “tough enough to deal with the likes of Putin” maybe the most memorable event from the whole debates and interviews. Whether it is for good or ill, we will soon find out.

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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    First!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    YouGov, EIAIPM? (Ed is alright is PM)
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tories ahead by two: CON 36, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 13, GRN 5
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    RobD said:

    YouGov, EIAIPM? (Ed is alright is PM)

    No he would still be a disaster.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited March 2015
    Tories pull away.

    That was terrible by Miliband. Absolutely dreadful. The only bit he rallied was the second half of Paxo which was then totally undone by the 'off air' final question.

    Cameron won it by light years.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Tories on 36! High water mark for them since the Omnishambles.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Paxo by a mile.

    Oh you mean among the politicians?

    I thought Cameron edged it but about 7:5 rather than some kind of walk over.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Who won?
    Paxo

    Other than that, what we really learned is that Dave versus Ed means we are all losers
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    Who won...Paxman...

    Second...Paxman's bank manager....

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Really all rather boring.

    Tough finish for @Ed_miliband according to the #SunNation worm #BattleforNumber10 pic.twitter.com/oahpCEF7fq

    — Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) March 26, 2015
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ed was shocking on the too much spending/borrowing. Diabolical.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Paxman allowed Ed back in by going personal, that's where Ed did the best.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,713
    Didn't see it, but it sounds as if Miliband fell below expectations, which surely wasn't the intention.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    YouGov, EIAIPM? (Ed is alright is PM)

    No he would still be a disaster.
    EIABCIPM (Ed is alright but crap is PM)?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    MikeK said:

    Really all rather boring.

    Tough finish for @Ed_miliband according to the #SunNation worm #BattleforNumber10 pic.twitter.com/oahpCEF7fq

    — Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) March 26, 2015

    The more they saw......isn't that par for the course. Miliband on the box, Labour down.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    My Twitter's largely calling it for Ed. Not sure myself. Cameron got an easier ride but there's no doubt he's a more accomplished speaker. The exception is usually when he gets personally rattled ('Flashman') but there was nothing to push him there tonight.

    I'm going to be the dissenting voice and say that Paxman wasn't great either, especially with the groan-worthy personal attacks.
  • I'd give it slightly to Milliband, as he did well at the end after a pretty brutal opening. I'd guess both leaders are happy it's over, and neither tripped up.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    DavidL said:

    Paxo by a mile.

    Oh you mean among the politicians?

    I thought Cameron edged it but about 7:5 rather than some kind of walk over.

    Yep that's probably fair. He was measured. Miliband got rattled and the audience laughed at him. The final Paxo question was truly dreadful. OMG one of the most memorable moments in TV history to date. Fortunately for him few people were probably watching.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    No disasters for either of them. The seven way is going to be utterly pointless.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,713
    MaxPB said:

    Tories on 36! High water mark for them since the Omnishambles.

    Dave's uncompromising honesty over VAT and his leadership starting to shine through?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    Wow the Guardian really really really think Ed was awesome.

    Not sure what they were watching, the only awesome performance was Paxman.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Didn't see it, but it sounds as if Miliband fell below expectations, which surely wasn't the intention.

    Farage called it for Ed - because he's obsessed with Cameron.
  • DimitryDimitry Posts: 49
    After that, EICIPM.

    That's Etonian Idol Cameron ...., I think.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    TGOHF said:

    Ed was shocking on the too much spending/borrowing. Diabolical.

    Agreed. He should have a solid rebuttal for this line of attack by now, but doesn't.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I'd say Ed made the most gaffes but also had the best lines

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    MaxPB said:

    Paxman allowed Ed back in by going personal, that's where Ed did the best.

    Yes he overdid that. But then it is easier to challenge someone who has a record. Ed walked away from pretty much everything the last Labour government did which made it hard to challenge him about that.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    Dave handled it well but said absolutely nothing. Ed had his peaks and troughs and was definitely subjected to a harder grilling.

    Score draw for me.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    Didn't see it, but it sounds as if Miliband fell below expectations, which surely wasn't the intention.

    Not really. He did okay, on the personal stuff he was reasonably good. On the policy stuff he was dire but people will forget about that because it is expected.

    Overall Ed will have gained and Cameron will stay static.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    Cameron winner according to Guardian ICM poll...54/46

    Egg on face of Guardian journo who has been ramping up how impressive and well prepared Ed Miliband was throughout. What's that I hear....the delete key being rapidly pressed on the Guardian's journo's keyboard as they have to rewrite 100's of words of how Miliband wiped the floor with Cameron.
  • DavidL said:

    Paxo by a mile.

    Oh you mean among the politicians?

    I thought Cameron edged it but about 7:5 rather than some kind of walk over.

    Yep that's probably fair. He was measured. Miliband got rattled and the audience laughed at him. The final Paxo question was truly dreadful. OMG one of the most memorable moments in TV history to date. Fortunately for him few people were probably watching.
    Yeah, even better than the moon landings, World Trade Center destruction, and the Iranian Embassy Siege!

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706
    Cameron should have won that by a much bigger margin. He needs to up his game.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Just read the Guardian numbers to Douglas Alexander. Stands by view that Ed won.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Well, that's probably about as good as could've been expected for Ed.
  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    MaxPB said:

    Didn't see it, but it sounds as if Miliband fell below expectations, which surely wasn't the intention.

    Not really. He did okay, on the personal stuff he was reasonably good. On the policy stuff he was dire but people will forget about that because it is expected.

    Overall Ed will have gained and Cameron will stay static.
    I would be surprised if headline VI moves beyond MoE as a result. Ed may see a slight uptick in his personal approval ratings, but I wouldn't guarantee it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    ICM 3 way poll....Paxman / Cameron / Miliband....

    98 / 1 / 1

    I put the 1's down to misclicks.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 1m1 minute ago
    Guardian ICM snap poll gives Cameron a win: Cameron 54%, Miliband 46%
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    Cameron should have won that by a much bigger margin. He needs to up his game.

    I think it was a big disadvantage going first. So overcoming that in the polling is pretty good.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Guardian calls 54-46 close - obviously Hollande must have squeaked in against Sarkozy then. Oh wait...
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Visually it was Dave 10 Ed 0 verbally ditto. I did think ED did better at the end(better than fecking awful), but I am the wrong person to ask because I just cannot bear to listen to him. It was just dreadful.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    Cameron should have won that by a much bigger margin. He needs to up his game.

    Indeed. Though it should be noted that Dave improved a lot between the first and second debate last time so next time he should be better.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Hard to call in some respects.

    Paxman got the better of Ed early on in part because of Eds inability to cope with him, Cameron is better in that situation. Towards the end Ed had his moments against Paxman, he had a bad experience with some sunny uplands.

    By definition as the opposition it is an easier it is easier to attack the record than it is for the incumbent to defend a 5 year record in which things are bound to go wrong.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    54/46 is not just..
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iain_w_anderson: Snap poll favours @David_Cameron - while commentators seem to favour @Ed_Miliband - @CiceroElections
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706
    MaxPB said:

    Cameron should have won that by a much bigger margin. He needs to up his game.

    Indeed. Though it should be noted that Dave improved a lot between the first and second debate last time so next time he should be better.
    Cameron has two modes: wing it and panic.

    The close shave should generate a panic, so he doesn't try and wing it next time and actually prepared properly.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    46 - 54
    Isn't that what's known as a 'Scottish victory" (© Alex Salmond)?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    MaxPB said:

    Cameron should have won that by a much bigger margin. He needs to up his game.

    Indeed. Though it should be noted that Dave improved a lot between the first and second debate last time so next time he should be better.
    Cameron came to that cold. Remember, Miliband did the "yuff" one a couple of weeks ago. Stupid for Cameron not to do a warm up gig.
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    Cammo steady but guarded and fairlydull, Eddie started poorly with Paxo but turned it round and his interview was the better watch. BBC have called it for Eddie for what that is worth.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rowenamason: Tory spinner: excellent poll. Always knew we could count on the Guardian.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    macisback said:

    Cammo steady but guarded and fairlydull, Eddie started poorly with Paxo but turned it round and his interview was the better watch. BBC have called it for Eddie for what that is worth.

    BBC called for Ed...There's a shock....probably because that is what is says on the Guardian website. In other news, something about bears and woods and shitting...

    Now we are on the spin from Guardian...

    2) But, given Ed Miliband’s personal ratings before tonight, Miliband is the man who has outperformed his benchmark - quite significantly.

    I think we should wait and see what the standard VI polls say. I don't think either are going to benefit from this experience.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Kay Burley is quite sexy isn't she?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    isam said:

    Kay Burley is quite sexy isn't she?

    She's very naughty, that's for sure.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Cameron wins it 54-46. About right.

    Not the twiterrati which is voodoo but ICM poll.

    Money going on tories.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    isam said:

    Kay Burley is quite sexy isn't she?

    She looks unnatural...too much botox imo.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    MaxPB said:

    Cameron should have won that by a much bigger margin. He needs to up his game.

    Indeed. Though it should be noted that Dave improved a lot between the first and second debate last time so next time he should be better.
    Cameron has two modes: wing it and panic.

    The close shave should generate a panic, so he doesn't try and wing it next time and actually prepared properly.
    He comes across as someone who has had it all, and doesnt have to work at it. It breeds complacency. Also what came up from Paxman was his 'promises'. He made promises on things that he didnt need to. He needs to caveat undertakings when he has no real control over the outcome. Why on earth would he make a commitment on immigration, when it could only apply outside the EU, or did he caveat it, and not pull paxman up because of it?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Press look glum?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,713
    Not good. Can you imagine Blair losing to Major in 1997 on this sort of thing? And this should have allowed Miliband to play his trump cards: compassion, vision and standing up for the weak and the oppressed against the most inept and vindictive government of all time.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Farage on ITV London now, for The Debate.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Wow, was that really appropriate for her to say that?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    BenM said:

    Press look glum?

    No gaffes or headlines.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Visually it was Dave 10 Ed 0 verbally ditto. I did think ED did better at the end(better than fecking awful), but I am the wrong person to ask because I just cannot bear to listen to him. It was just dreadful.

    54/46 is not just..

    Well if you are not the person to ask then why comment?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    edited March 2015
    Narrow win for Cameron, but I doubt many will have watched it on C4/SKY in primetime and it was not head to head. More encouraging for him is the narrow yougov Tory lead tonight
  • RobD said:

    Wow, was that really appropriate for her to say that?

    Who? and what did they say? and who did they say it to?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706
    Scott_P said:

    @iain_w_anderson: Snap poll favours @David_Cameron - while commentators seem to favour @Ed_Miliband - @CiceroElections

    Because Miliband did a bit better than soil himself. Expectations are crucial.

    Right, enough of this. Time for sack hitting.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2015

    Cameron winner according to Guardian ICM poll...54/46

    Egg on face of Guardian journo who has been ramping up how impressive and well prepared Ed Miliband was throughout. What's that I hear....the delete key being rapidly pressed on the Guardian's journo's keyboard as they have to rewrite 100's of words of how Miliband wiped the floor with Cameron.

    Ed finished ok but mean Qs from paxo got him sympathy, audience went aahhh.

    Surprisingly Allegra on newsnight called it big win for Ed and showed why cammo not want debate ed....

    Ed also benefit from going second so knew he'd get a q about what was good re dave. Audience deffo negative more to ed but then sound sympathy for him, as then backed up with panoramic asking him not off Mike if he was ok!
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    isam said:

    Kay Burley is quite sexy isn't she?

    https://youtu.be/pswQLA9mWmA

    She certainly knows to toe the party line.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    Sunil (last thread) Opinium also had the Tories ahead on 36% last Sunday
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    edited March 2015

    RobD said:

    Wow, was that really appropriate for her to say that?

    Who? and what did they say? and who did they say it to?
    Kay said that Ed was shaking before he got on stage. She did go on to say how he became confident once it was underway. Oh, she said it to some journo.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    The Salmond question was the dog that didn't bark, could have been dangerous
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    46 is as close as Miliband dare get to '45'??
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Wow, was that really appropriate for her to say that?

    Who? and what did they say? and who did they say it to?
    Kay said that Ed was shaking before he got on stage. She did go on to say how he became confident once it was underway. Oh, she said it to some journo.
    Thanks.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    And we know twitter is just sooooo representative....
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    FalseFlag said:

    isam said:

    Kay Burley is quite sexy isn't she?

    https://youtu.be/pswQLA9mWmA

    She certainly knows to toe the party line.
    That was utterly hilarious. "they werent all black, I was a white guy there".

    That is what Trevor Philips was talking about....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    edited March 2015
    Are the same organisation going to analyse whether the Pope is Catholic? I mean, seriously, platform for shouty people reports a win for a left wing shouty person? Quel surprise.
  • Paxo not panoramic, effing predictive text
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,706
    Hmm.. Miliband has barely 25% the tweets of Cameron. Most people don't even care enough to comment.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Visually it was Dave 10 Ed 0 verbally ditto. I did think ED did better at the end(better than fecking awful), but I am the wrong person to ask because I just cannot bear to listen to him. It was just dreadful.

    54/46 is not just..

    Well if you are not the person to ask then why comment?

    Well I guess you take my comment and look at all the others and take a view. you wont get an unbiased view from me, but then again all your Dave cant win threads aren't exactly unbiased. are they.. Why write so many of them... we know you think Dave cant win./
  • And we know twitter is just sooooo representative....
    Twitter called the indyref for Yes.

    Just saying.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    The sample of viewers, who were weighted to bring them in line with the broader population, were asked to put aside their party preference and concentrate only on what they heard during the programme, 46% felt that Cameron had the best arguments, as against 44% who said the same of Miliband. Cameron was also judged slightly more convincing – by 48% to 43% – and to have the more appealing personality, by 46% to 42%. He chalked up a clearer win on “actually answering the questions asked”, by 44% to 37%.

    There was better news for Miliband when it comes to the crucial question of shifting votes: 56% of the sub-sample who said they might change their mind will now plump for Labour, as against just 30% for the Conservatives.

    David Cameron retains his lead as best prime minister in this survey - but by a smaller margin than in many past polls – he is preferred on this count by 48% as against just 40% for Miliband.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    And we know twitter is just sooooo representative....

    Like I said on the previous thread, my timeline called it for Ed
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Mortimer said:

    Are the same organisation going to analyse whether the Pope is Catholic? I mean, seriously, platform for shouty people reports a win for a left wing shouty person? Quel surprise.
    4xtimes the amount of Cameron tweets?
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Face up to it, both are shite.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Cameron winner according to Guardian ICM poll...54/46

    Egg on face of Guardian journo who has been ramping up how impressive and well prepared Ed Miliband was throughout. What's that I hear....the delete key being rapidly pressed on the Guardian's journo's keyboard as they have to rewrite 100's of words of how Miliband wiped the floor with Cameron.

    Ed finished ok but mean Qs from paxo got him sympathy, audience went aahhh.

    Surprisingly Allegra on newsnight called it big win for Ed and showed why cammo not want debate ed....

    Ed also benefit from going second so knew he'd get a q about what was good re dave. Audience deffo negative more to ed but then sound sympathy for him, as then backed up with panoramic asking him not off Mike if he was ok!
    He might have said the same to Cameron, but maybe not with the 'Dave' bit. Who knows?
    Everyone does need to be paranoid about open mics in the next 6 weeks.

    6 weeks... !
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    ICM details:
    An instant Guardian/ICM poll found that David Cameron had narrowly “won” the contest with 54% saying that the PM came out on top once the don’t knows were excluded, compared with just 46% who felt that Miliband had the edge.

    The sample of viewers, who were weighted to bring them in line with the broader population, were asked to put aside their party preference and concentrate only on what they heard during the programme, 46% felt that Cameron had the best arguments, as against 44% who said the same of Miliband. Cameron was also judged slightly more convincing – by 48% to 43% – and to have the more appealing personality, by 46% to 42%. He chalked up a clearer win on “actually answering the questions asked”, by 44% to 37%.

    There was better news for Miliband when it comes to the crucial question of shifting votes: 56% of the sub-sample who said they might change their mind will now plump for Labour, as against just 30% for the Conservatives.

    David Cameron retains his lead as best prime minister in this survey - but by a smaller margin than in many past polls – he is preferred on this count by 48% as against just 40% for Miliband.

    ICM interviewed 3,650 adults aged 18+ online on 24-26th March.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    The crucial bit from the polling chunk I posted, and why Cameron definitely didn't want this close to GE and head to head...even though he won, a decent number of voters say they might shift their vote to Ed.

    If you get that 1-2 weeks before a GE, hard to get them back. With 8 weeks to go, you have time to pump the propaganda out.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Was the ICM poll of 1/3 tory, 1/3 Labour 1/3 neutral? If it is then this is a massive win for Cameron since pretty well all tory/ labour voters will be loyal to the leader. Cameron must have won the neutrals over 21:13 - or 70 - 30.

    Given the fact that Tory-Labour are neck and neck, this is a resounding win for Cameron.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelePolitics: Election TV debate: David Cameron vs Ed Miliband - who was the winner? http://t.co/WiKPrZqvQa
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Twitter is not a good measure. Young people and anoraks.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    There was better news for Miliband when it comes to the crucial question of shifting votes: 56% of the sub-sample who said they might change their mind will now plump for Labour, as against just 30% for the Conservatives.
    That's the dangerous bit for the Tories.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,916
    edited March 2015
    Clever tactic by Miliband though to say the things he most admired about Cameron were introducing gay marriage and protecting overseas aid, the 2 things rightwingers and Kippers most loathe him for!
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Visually it was Dave 10 Ed 0 verbally ditto. I did think ED did better at the end(better than fecking awful), but I am the wrong person to ask because I just cannot bear to listen to him. It was just dreadful.

    54/46 is not just..

    Well if you are not the person to ask then why comment?

    Ah c'mon, where's the smiley? Can you dish out a bit more of that to a few others who are less than honest than Mr Root?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    weejonnie said:

    Was the ICM poll of 1/3 tory, 1/3 Labour 1/3 neutral? If it is then this is a massive win for Cameron since pretty well all tory/ labour voters will be loyal to the leader. Cameron must have won the neutrals over 21:13 - or 70 - 30.

    Given the fact that Tory-Labour are neck and neck, this is a resounding win for Cameron.

    ICM was a poll of those daft enough to watch - wonder what the VI of such a group was ?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142

    The crucial bit from the polling chunk I posted, and why Cameron definitely didn't want this close to GE and head to head...even though he won, a decent number of voters say they might shift their vote to Ed.

    If you get that 1-2 weeks before a GE, hard to get them back. With 8 weeks to go, you have time to pump the propaganda out.

    You mean, show them the error of a rash judgement :-) ?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited March 2015
    Cameron has a good chance of winning the first proper debate based on that polling IMO, assuming YouGov do it the same way as ICM.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @RichardA: Tonight's Twitter is just confirmation bias data collection for future pol-sci PhDs.
This discussion has been closed.