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SystemSystem Posts: 12,590
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP in Dudley N, where the Tories have had candidate troubles, might at 10-3 be a value bet

We’ve talked a lot about the CON-UKIP battleground but not about the LAB-UKIP one. Certainly the focus of the purples has been on the former but that doesn’t mean there are not opportunities with the latter.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited March 2015
    MP's voting on Speaker rule change now

    Result approx 1335.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,849
    On the purples here.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Earlier today:

    Mark Reckless ‏@MarkReckless 41m41 minutes ago
    “@SamCoatesTimes: Gove is summoning individual Tory MPs for "fireside chats" re Bercow. Desperation creeping in?”>after saying was free vote

    Douglas Carswell ‏@DouglasCarswell 39m39 minutes ago
    @MarkReckless @SamCoatesTimes think I might stand outside whips office and tweet which narks are hauled in....

    & third?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,760
    Mr. W, sounds like (from the prior thread) the cantankerous gnome may be safe, alas.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,849
    edited March 2015
    Honestly I'd have thought Hague could have exited parliament in a better way than this. Deeply depressing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,345
    Bercow will survive and the Tories have wasted a campaign day on this rubbish.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I'm not going to say what I have seen on BBC Parliament in the last few minutes, but it seems Cameron has managed to unite everyone who is his opponent inside and outside the Tory party in support of Bercow.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Richard Rogers retweeted
    David A ‏@PassionateDave 26m26 minutes ago
    'White Poor Thickos' so says Kelvin Mckenzie. What a bigoted bastard he is. #bbcdp


    UKFront... ‏@UKFront 25m25 minutes ago
    UK to face rush of migrants as France opens migrant camp 'Sangatte 2' http://shr.gs/ybN2WUP
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, sounds like (from the prior thread) the cantankerous gnome may be safe, alas.

    I hope so.

    Awful move by the government and regardless of the result a final day in the HoC that Hague will long regret. Whatever possessed him?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,760
    Mr. W, the Speaker was elected due to Labour partisanship and is not trusted by two parties of government to be fair and even-handed in the event of a very tight result after the election. My sympathy for Bercow is limited, and I'm surprised the idea of a secret ballot is seen as such a horrid one.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    JackW said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, sounds like (from the prior thread) the cantankerous gnome may be safe, alas.

    I hope so.

    Awful move by the government and regardless of the result a final day in the HoC that Hague will long regret. Whatever possessed him?

    Who told him to proceed?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh 7m7 minutes ago
    Michael Gove has joined Hague on front bench. To keep him in check? Or moral support after hour long kicking he's just had?

    William hague acting like the arrogant 16 year old he used to be and beloved by Thatcher.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,233
    edited March 2015
    FPT:
    Mortimer said:

    Pong said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've just seen the latest Lib Dem poster.

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/581025157671616512

    That's rather good.
    Dreadful message from the shameless party. 'Hey, these people look stupid in some photos, so vote for us'.

    Dreadful because:

    a) even more childish than the usual election poster
    b) doesn't have any issue highlighted apart from outdated assumptions of the political spectrum
    c) doesn't resonate with public perceptions - GO one of the most popular politicians in the country
    d) the irony will resonate with public perceptions more - LDs are terribly unpopular. So much so that people are not even mentioning them in public. Not even in a whisper.

    It is so bad I doubt there will even be any parodies produced by opponents.

    Yes, yes, you don't like the LDs and you think George Osborne is wonderful.

    I don't know what it is about some Tories on here - happy to throw the vitriol around when it comes to their opponents but as soon as anyone fights back they get all brittle and prickly (like their leader).

    You've got £70 million to spend on this election - go out and buy a sense of humour and a thicker skin - you won't make it to election day without them.
    No bitterness, no prickliness. Just pointing out some using some basic advertising assumptions that this is a particularly naff approach.

    You have to remember that these posters are not intended for people who bet on politics, or who are political activists - but instead for the general public who are more interested in the price of their rent, mortgages and their pay packet (thus taxes).
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2015
    JackW said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, sounds like (from the prior thread) the cantankerous gnome may be safe, alas.

    I hope so.

    Awful move by the government and regardless of the result a final day in the HoC that Hague will long regret. Whatever possessed him?

    Replace Hague with Cameron and that gives you the answer.
    Cameron has build a small reputation on reckless HoC moves and this is no exception.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, the Speaker was elected due to Labour partisanship and is not trusted by two parties of government to be fair and even-handed in the event of a very tight result after the election. My sympathy for Bercow is limited, and I'm surprised the idea of a secret ballot is seen as such a horrid one.

    From what I read, it seems like most of what was being said was about the underhanded tactics Hague used to try to push this through, rather than the idea itself.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,214
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, the Speaker was elected due to Labour partisanship and is not trusted by two parties of government to be fair and even-handed in the event of a very tight result after the election. My sympathy for Bercow is limited, and I'm surprised the idea of a secret ballot is seen as such a horrid one.

    Isn't Bercow a Tory?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,760
    Mr. Stereotomy, probably a valid criticism.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,910
    Bercow survives
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,760
    Dr. Prasannan, in the same way Elagabalus was a Roman.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Tellers returning.

    Result : Government loses

    Bercow emotional.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Bercow wins.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    202 : 228
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,849
    Hills cut Kettering to 1-16,
    Ladbrokes cut Ashfield to 1-5.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, the Speaker was elected due to Labour partisanship and is not trusted by two parties of government to be fair and even-handed in the event of a very tight result after the election. My sympathy for Bercow is limited, and I'm surprised the idea of a secret ballot is seen as such a horrid one.

    Isn't Bercow a Tory?
    I think that is a matter of some debate ;)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, the Speaker was elected due to Labour partisanship and is not trusted by two parties of government to be fair and even-handed in the event of a very tight result after the election. My sympathy for Bercow is limited, and I'm surprised the idea of a secret ballot is seen as such a horrid one.

    It's not Bercow per se, Morris, just the devious and underhand way the Tories went about it.
    Doesn't show promise of good government in the next parliament without UKIP having a finger on the tiller.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Government defeated by 202-228.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,345
    Honestly, this is a wasted day for the Tories.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Actually pretty close.

    Still a total own-goal from Hague. What an idiot.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,760
    Shame to see Bercow survives. For now.

    Mr. K, only a finger? Not very ambitious ;)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Speedy said:

    Government defeated by 202-228.

    Good! And I'm NOT a fan of Mr Bercow.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MikeK said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, the Speaker was elected due to Labour partisanship and is not trusted by two parties of government to be fair and even-handed in the event of a very tight result after the election. My sympathy for Bercow is limited, and I'm surprised the idea of a secret ballot is seen as such a horrid one.

    It's not Bercow per se, Morris, just the devious and underhand way the Tories went about it.
    Doesn't show promise of good government in the next parliament without UKIP having a finger on the tiller.
    Shouldn't that be 'Fingers in the till'?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    If Bercow's looks could kill the government front bench would be dead meat.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Speedy said:

    Bercow wins.

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Bercow survives

    This is the odd thing, even if the vote had passed Bercow would have survived. The only thing that would have changed as I understand it was the mechanism for possibly replacing him after the election, at which point it is entirely possibly (especially given today's vote) that he would have been elected speaker in a secret ballot... bizarre.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,910
    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,214
    Speaker's no longer Cornered!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2015
    I'm all in favour of dastardly coups, but before attempting one you do need to be sure it will be successful...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    No. His place as Labour's favourite speaker has been confirmed. Again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,849
    Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 37m37 minutes ago
    Graham Brady, chair of powerful 1922 committee, sitting next to Charles Walker, leading Tory criticism of Bercow plot. Ominous for gvt
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2015
    MikeK said:

    Speedy said:

    Government defeated by 202-228.

    Good! And I'm NOT a fan of Mr Bercow.
    And that is how Bercow survived, Cameron united his enemies behind Bercow.
    The PM forgot that the opposition plus Tory rebels have greater numbers than he has.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,990
    Dudley North certainly looks worth a purple punt at these numbers. As usual it will be a question of where the LibDem voters go, and in this case whether the Tory vote falls away after loss of candidate.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,345
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Bercow has no honour. He has shown this time and again so he won't resign. He will have to be forced out and the Tories completely effed this up. A bipartisan report recommends changing the system and the Tories try and get it through in the wash up. They should have brought it to the House much earlier, it would have sailed through with a Con/Lib majority.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,233
    edited March 2015
    MikeK said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, the Speaker was elected due to Labour partisanship and is not trusted by two parties of government to be fair and even-handed in the event of a very tight result after the election. My sympathy for Bercow is limited, and I'm surprised the idea of a secret ballot is seen as such a horrid one.

    It's not Bercow per se, Morris, just the devious and underhand way the Tories went about it.
    Doesn't show promise of good government in the next parliament without UKIP having a finger on the tiller.
    A party that has to rely on recent defections is hardly in a position to lecture on procedure....

    (Not that I think this was the government's finest hour)

    (But then, I do think the public ballot for speaker is a joke)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    notme said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Dair said:

    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @afneil: Nicola Sturgeon forced to remind us "I'm leading the SNP campaign" as Salmond continues solo manoeuvres in Westminster over pink champagne

    Journalist: Are you the leader of the SNP?
    Sturgeon: Yes

    SNP IN LEADERSHIP CRISIS - WHO RUNS THE SNP?
    Sturgeon forced into damaging restatement of leadership


    The thing I find funniest is that the pink champagne was ordered with fish & chips. It's almost like Salmond knew which part was going to get reported.
    I don't know what's funnier.

    Salmon playing the Loyalists like a fiddle. Or maybe a recorder.
    Or the Loyalist straw clutching over an entirely made up Telegraph story.
    This might be wasted on you, but I don't think using Northern Ireland style sectarian language like that is helpful.
    Thanksfully. Someone else picks him up on this. It makes my spine run cold to see such language used in the mainland.
    It is ambiguous and perhaps better avoided - Britnat is better in that respect. But to be fair to the user, it was actually a pro-Union PBer who first used that expression on PB in the Scottish context.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015
    The co-pilot "deliberately" initiated the descent of the Germanwings flight that crashed into the French Alps and refused to open the door to the pilot who was outside the cockpit, the lead investigator said on Thursday.
    The co-pilot, named as 28-year-old Andreas Lubitz, appeared to "show a desire to want to destroy" the plane, prosecutor Brice Robin told reporters.
    "The co-pilot was alone at the controls," said Mr Robin, presenting information gathered from the "black box" recorder that records sounds and conversations from the cockpit.
    "He ... refused to open the door of the cockpit to the pilot and deliberately began the descent of the plane."
    Lubitz was identified as a German citizen who was not known to have any links to terrorism or extremists, Mr Robin said, adding that German authorities were expected to provide additional information on his background and private life later Thursday or Friday.
    The co-pilot turned the "flight monitoring system" button to initiate the plane's descent and spoke "not a single word" during the last 10 minutes before the plane crashed.
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11491587/Airbus-A320-crashes-in-French-Alps-with-148-people-on-board-live.html
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,732
    FPT: Indigo said:

    Betty Boothroyd is the standard by which modern speakers are measured I would say, very far from supine, plenty of fire, infallibly polite, utterly neutral.
    ------------------
    Not sure you'd say that if you'd served under her. You might be right on political neutrality, but she was not very popular with newer MPs, because she was perceived as having old-hand favourites who would be called again and again (also something said of Michael Martin). Bercow was much better with newcomers, as well as in my opinion being simply a nicer person - and I'm saying that although Betty and Michael were in my party and he wasn't.

    The impression people get from the media (coloured by political assessments) doesn't always reflect what people think who've met those involved, and the scenes being played out in the Commons at the moment partly reflect the reality that people don't like to see someone they personally quite like being stitched up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,849
    Carswell reminding himself precisely why he joined UKIP today I reckon.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, the Speaker was elected due to Labour partisanship and is not trusted by two parties of government to be fair and even-handed in the event of a very tight result after the election. My sympathy for Bercow is limited, and I'm surprised the idea of a secret ballot is seen as such a horrid one.

    Utter rubbish.

    Speakers are normally elected with the support of the governing party and from the governing party. Boothroyd and Bercow were exceptions.

    Bercow, a Conservative was elected with cross party support with minority Conservative support during a Labour government.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,256
    edited March 2015
    On topic

    Dudley North was available at 25/1 at the time of publication of my Ukip hitlist in spring 2013, and was a tier 1 selection. Good luck to those who followed me in
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    JackW said:

    If Bercow's looks could kill the government front bench would be dead meat.

    An absolutely stupid move by the government. Why?

    Never underestimate the Tories' ability to shoot themselves in the foot even when things might be going well for them. It's either stupidity or hubris.

    It's one reason why I think tha Labour are more likely to win in May than not.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,760
    Mr. W, Boothroyd had respect across the House. Bercow does not.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited March 2015
    I believe that today was a fitting symbolic end to this parliament, with Cameron defeated by Tory rebels.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    Pulpstar said:

    NickPalmer said:

    scotslass said:



    In other words best not to clutch at staw polls. Trust in real ones like ICM. Right now you will learn more about the SNP vote in your own constituency than from the current YouGov cross breaks!

    The SNP vote in Broxtowe is well-hidden...
    What's your view on the constitutional lies being peddled by Jim Murphy ?
    Good afternoon all. I'd be very interested to know, too. I am also puzzled by the emphasis on the faux doctrine that the party with most seats always forms the government - and it doesn't seem to be confined to Mr Murphy either.

    Perhaps Mr Murphy is trying to drum up enough votes for a majority. But the only conclusion that seems to make sense, of sorts, is that, if the Tories get most seats but are still a minority, Labour are planning to let the Tories rule rather than vote them out with the assistance of the SNP; and Mr Murphy is trying to deflect the public blame in advance.

    Any better ideas please??
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    MikeK said:

    Richard Rogers retweeted
    David A ‏@PassionateDave 26m26 minutes ago
    'White Poor Thickos' so says Kelvin Mckenzie. What a bigoted bastard he is. #bbcdp


    UKFront... ‏@UKFront 25m25 minutes ago
    UK to face rush of migrants as France opens migrant camp 'Sangatte 2' http://shr.gs/ybN2WUP

    Mckenzie only playing up to the lefties,trying to get back on TV after his shame of the Hillsborough report,first he's in favour now of mass immigration and now this.

    He's a two faced pri*k.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Gerald '£8865 TV on expenses' Kauffman calling another 'grubby' and 'squalid'. Hilarious.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Bercow has no honour. He has shown this time and again so he won't resign. He will have to be forced out and the Tories completely effed this up. A bipartisan report recommends changing the system and the Tories try and get it through in the wash up. They should have brought it to the House much earlier, it would have sailed through with a Con/Lib majority.
    Absolutely incorrect.

    The all party Procedure Committee recommended no change as the Conservative Chair noted in his emotional speech an hour ago. He also correctly shamed the government front bench.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    As a lucky member of the PR of Bercow, this today has been ridiculous and sheer stupidity by my team.

    Whoever thought it was a clever ruse in blue hq, needs to join ukip asap.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,941
    This coming after the fiasco with the Commons Clerk is like death by a thousand cuts.

    Bercow will be gone by the end of the year, IMO.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Speedy
    Probably not the wisest of moves to send the troops home with a government defeat.
    But I have no doubt the tactical genius of it will become apparent soon (on PB at least)
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    isam said:

    On topic

    Dudley North was available at 25/1 at the time of publication of my Ukip hitlist in spring 2013, and was a tier 1 selection. Good luck to those who followed me in


    @isam,did you get to Question David lammy yesterday ?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    NickPalmer said:

    FPT: Indigo said:

    Betty Boothroyd is the standard by which modern speakers are measured I would say, very far from supine, plenty of fire, infallibly polite, utterly neutral.
    ------------------
    Not sure you'd say that if you'd served under her. You might be right on political neutrality, but she was not very popular with newer MPs, because she was perceived as having old-hand favourites who would be called again and again (also something said of Michael Martin). Bercow was much better with newcomers, as well as in my opinion being simply a nicer person - and I'm saying that although Betty and Michael were in my party and he wasn't.

    The impression people get from the media (coloured by political assessments) doesn't always reflect what people think who've met those involved, and the scenes being played out in the Commons at the moment partly reflect the reality that people don't like to see someone they personally quite like being stitched up.

    I met Bercow last year at an event to encourage female entrepreneurs. He was much nicer than reading comments about him you might have expected and spent a lot of time talking to people individually and listening. I was rather impressed.

    But even if he's an egomaniac amongst six hundred or so other egomaniacs, his office represents the Commons and shouldn't be mucked about with by the executive just because they don't like the particular individual holding the role.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Au contraire.

    Bercow is strengthened by the support of the House against a government that numerically should have won comfortably.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited March 2015
    Carnyx said:

    Perhaps Mr Murphy is trying to drum up enough votes for a majority. But the only conclusion that seems to make sense, of sorts, is that, if the Tories get most seats but are still a minority, Labour are planning to let the Tories rule rather than vote them out with the assistance of the SNP; and Mr Murphy is trying to deflect the public blame in advance.

    Any better ideas please??

    Surely it's very simple - if it were the case that the party with the most seats gets to form the government, then Labour would have a strong argument that a vote for the SNP could let in a Tory government. It may be nonsense, but you can see why they'd want to peddle this nonsense. I don't think you need to look any further than a desperate attempt to claw back some of the voters they've mislaid.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    This coming after the fiasco with the Commons Clerk is like death by a thousand cuts.

    Bercow will be gone by the end of the year, IMO.

    How?

    There is no mechanism to remove him, and he seems unlikely to do the honourable thing
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Mortimer said:

    MikeK said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, the Speaker was elected due to Labour partisanship and is not trusted by two parties of government to be fair and even-handed in the event of a very tight result after the election. My sympathy for Bercow is limited, and I'm surprised the idea of a secret ballot is seen as such a horrid one.

    It's not Bercow per se, Morris, just the devious and underhand way the Tories went about it.
    Doesn't show promise of good government in the next parliament without UKIP having a finger on the tiller.
    A party that has to rely on recent defections is hardly in a position to lecture on procedure....

    (Not that I think this was the government's finest hour)

    (But then, I do think the public ballot for speaker is a joke)
    Its hardly the first time the government has tried this sort of wheeze. The disgraceful handling of the EAW was of a similar nature. Failing to give parliament a vote on it having said in as many words that they would and then discovering that the referendum lock didn't apply either, how convenient.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Au contraire.

    Bercow is strengthened by the support of the House against a government that numerically should have won comfortably.

    Exactly. I'm not seeing this idea that he was somehow weakened by a plot against him ending in humiliating failure
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,849
    Carnyx said:


    Pulpstar said:

    NickPalmer said:

    scotslass said:



    In other words best not to clutch at staw polls. Trust in real ones like ICM. Right now you will learn more about the SNP vote in your own constituency than from the current YouGov cross breaks!

    The SNP vote in Broxtowe is well-hidden...
    What's your view on the constitutional lies being peddled by Jim Murphy ?
    Good afternoon all. I'd be very interested to know, too. I am also puzzled by the emphasis on the faux doctrine that the party with most seats always forms the government - and it doesn't seem to be confined to Mr Murphy either.

    Perhaps Mr Murphy is trying to drum up enough votes for a majority. But the only conclusion that seems to make sense, of sorts, is that, if the Tories get most seats but are still a minority, Labour are planning to let the Tories rule rather than vote them out with the assistance of the SNP; and Mr Murphy is trying to deflect the public blame in advance.

    Any better ideas please??
    1951, 1923 and 1931 are all examples of where the biggest single party did not have the premiership.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,345
    GIN1138 said:

    This coming after the fiasco with the Commons Clerk is like death by a thousand cuts.

    Bercow will be gone by the end of the year, IMO.

    Bercow is not an honourable person, he will never resign and never leave unless he is forced out. He will cling onto his position by any means necessary. Look at his calling of "urgent" questions early this morning to allow his Labour allies to get back to Westminster, and then chairing the debate himself when it should have been Dawn Primarolo. His is a petty minded person.

    Worse still I agree with today's vote to not change the system. The government completely ballsed this up and wasted valuable campaigning time on this rubbish.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,941
    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Au contraire.

    Bercow is strengthened by the support of the House against a government that numerically should have won comfortably.

    As PB's voice of the establishment, where did you stand on Speaker Martin being given the boot?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,910
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    As a lucky member of the PR of Bercow, this today has been ridiculous and sheer stupidity by my team.

    Whoever thought it was a clever ruse in blue hq, needs to join ukip asap.

    Michael Gove is a crap Chief Whip.

    After the fiasco of the European Arrest warrant vote now this, he's as inept as Crassus at Carrhae
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,849
    @Richard_Nabavi I know, but I want to hear Mr Palmer's views on it :)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    @Richard_Nabavi I know, but I want to hear Mr Palmer's views on it :)

    You'll be lucky!
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Au contraire.

    Bercow is strengthened by the support of the House against a government that numerically should have won comfortably.

    The Division Lists will be interesting, particularly those Tories supporting Bercow.

    The defeaning cheers from the Labour side really only serve to confirm that he is indeed "their" Speaker.
  • blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492
    Is Dudley N Bill Etheridge? Very well respected local man, MEP, his wife is disabled. He has a great chance
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    As a lucky member of the PR of Bercow, this today has been ridiculous and sheer stupidity by my team.

    Whoever thought it was a clever ruse in blue hq, needs to join ukip asap.

    Michael Gove is a crap Chief Whip.

    After the fiasco of the European Arrest warrant vote now this, he's as inept as Crassus at Carrhae
    Look's like M Smithson and Tim was right about him ;-)

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,910
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This coming after the fiasco with the Commons Clerk is like death by a thousand cuts.

    Bercow will be gone by the end of the year, IMO.

    How?

    There is no mechanism to remove him, and he seems unlikely to do the honourable thing
    There is a public vote to re-elect him Speaker when the new Parliament meets.

    They can vote him out then or fatally damage him by having 200 odd MPs voting against him
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    As a lucky member of the PR of Bercow, this today has been ridiculous and sheer stupidity by my team.

    Whoever thought it was a clever ruse in blue hq, needs to join ukip asap.

    Michael Gove is a crap Chief Whip.

    After the fiasco of the European Arrest warrant vote now this, he's as inept as Crassus at Carrhae
    Perhaps that's his revenge for pulling him out of Education where he really wanted to be ;)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    JohnO said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Au contraire.

    Bercow is strengthened by the support of the House against a government that numerically should have won comfortably.

    The Division Lists will be interesting, particularly those Tories supporting Bercow.

    The defeaning cheers from the Labour side really only serve to confirm that he is indeed "their" Speaker.
    This somewhat dodgy move deserved to be defeated. There would have been cheers, but that is why they were deafening today.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    I think the interesting thing about Dudley North, which is backed up by the Lord Ashcroft poll is that there'll be a strong gender divide. UKIP will have a strong lead among men, they'll attract plenty of working class, old Labour types. There are strong issues with immigration in the area and UKIP will no doubt be able to play on these concerns. Women on the other hand won't be attracted by this and will likely plump for Labour or Conservative. I think a narrow Labour hold by 2-3%.

    The two Walsall seats are also very fertile for UKIP.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,167
    edited March 2015
    Mortimer said:

    FPT:

    Mortimer said:

    Pong said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I've just seen the latest Lib Dem poster.

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/581025157671616512

    That's rather good.
    Dreadful message from the shameless party. 'Hey, these people look stupid in some photos, so vote for us'.

    Dreadful because:

    a) even more childish than the usual election poster
    b) doesn't have any issue highlighted apart from outdated assumptions of the political spectrum
    c) doesn't resonate with public perceptions - GO one of the most popular politicians in the country
    d) the irony will resonate with public perceptions more - LDs are terribly unpopular. So much so that people are not even mentioning them in public. Not even in a whisper.

    It is so bad I doubt there will even be any parodies produced by opponents.



    Yes, yes, you don't like the LDs and you think George Osborne is wonderful.

    I don't know what it is about some Tories on here - happy to throw the vitriol around when it comes to their opponents but as soon as anyone fights back they get all brittle and prickly (like their leader).

    You've got £70 million to spend on this election - go out and buy a sense of humour and a thicker skin - you won't make it to election day without them.
    No bitterness, no prickliness. Just pointing out some using some basic advertising assumptions that this is a particularly naff approach.

    You have to remember that these posters are not intended for people who bet on politics, or who are political activists - but instead for the general public who are more interested in the price of their rent, mortgages and their pay packet (thus taxes).
    Not sure how a cross between two awful things is meant to be a good thing either.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    As a lucky member of the PR of Bercow, this today has been ridiculous and sheer stupidity by my team.

    Whoever thought it was a clever ruse in blue hq, needs to join ukip asap.

    Michael Gove is a crap Chief Whip.

    After the fiasco of the European Arrest warrant vote now this, he's as inept as Crassus at Carrhae
    Don't throw all blame on Gove, he is simply executing orders from higher up, if those orders are suicidal he can't do much about it, he's like a german general in 1945.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,910
    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    As a lucky member of the PR of Bercow, this today has been ridiculous and sheer stupidity by my team.

    Whoever thought it was a clever ruse in blue hq, needs to join ukip asap.

    Michael Gove is a crap Chief Whip.

    After the fiasco of the European Arrest warrant vote now this, he's as inept as Crassus at Carrhae
    Look's like M Smithson and Tim was right about him ;-)

    His Missus skewered Ed over his two kitchens. So he's not all that bad.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,672
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Carnyx said:

    Perhaps Mr Murphy is trying to drum up enough votes for a majority. But the only conclusion that seems to make sense, of sorts, is that, if the Tories get most seats but are still a minority, Labour are planning to let the Tories rule rather than vote them out with the assistance of the SNP; and Mr Murphy is trying to deflect the public blame in advance.

    Any better ideas please??

    Surely it's very simple - if it were the case that the party with the most seats gets to form the government, then Labour would have a strong argument that a vote for the SNP could let in a Tory government. It may be nonsense, but you can see why they'd want to peddle this nonsense. I don't think you need to look any further than a desperate attempt to claw back some of the voters they've mislaid.
    Ah, thanks. Yes, I see now. Vote SNP get Tory, and all that. All the same, nonsense or not, if they don't get a majority of seats, which has a non-trivial probability, it does have the further implication which I have outlined - and which is of considerable interest.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There is a public vote to re-elect him Speaker when the new Parliament meets.

    They can vote him out then or fatally damage him by having 200 odd MPs voting against him

    Neither of which will happen
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,941
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This coming after the fiasco with the Commons Clerk is like death by a thousand cuts.

    Bercow will be gone by the end of the year, IMO.

    How?

    There is no mechanism to remove him, and he seems unlikely to do the honourable thing
    There was no mechanism to get rid of Speaker Martin but he lost the confidence of the House and ended up being given the boot.

    The same will happen to Bercow. It's just a matter of when and how bad the scandal is that does him in...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    This coming after the fiasco with the Commons Clerk is like death by a thousand cuts.

    Bercow will be gone by the end of the year, IMO.

    How?

    There is no mechanism to remove him, and he seems unlikely to do the honourable thing
    Incorrect.

    The new Father of the House will put the question when the HoC meets again. MP's may demur should they wish.

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    MikeK said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, the Speaker was elected due to Labour partisanship and is not trusted by two parties of government to be fair and even-handed in the event of a very tight result after the election. My sympathy for Bercow is limited, and I'm surprised the idea of a secret ballot is seen as such a horrid one.

    It's not Bercow per se, Morris, just the devious and underhand way the Tories went about it.
    Doesn't show promise of good government in the next parliament without UKIP having a finger on the tiller.
    A kipper finger on the tiller of anything would be a disaster for us all.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    Anyway, you couldn't get a more of a Westminster Bubble than this one....tonight's TV action will be tomorrow's political headlines.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Next thread.
    How many government ministers will lose their seats in the GE?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Au contraire.

    Bercow is strengthened by the support of the House against a government that numerically should have won comfortably.

    As PB's voice of the establishment, where did you stand on Speaker Martin being given the boot?

    Speaker Martin was awful. Placed by the Labour Party and deserved to be replaced.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JackW said:

    MP's may demur should they wish.

    Only if they want to spend the next 5 years on the speaker's shit list. Not going to happen.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2015
    Just watched Walkers speech. Reports of what Cameron said as well about not missing it for the world etc..

    Today's trivial schoolyard stunt really knocks your faith in the competence of your team and for now would even be a wobble for me in calling out Reckless as a TPD.

    It's that stupid.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,941
    edited March 2015
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Au contraire.

    Bercow is strengthened by the support of the House against a government that numerically should have won comfortably.

    As PB's voice of the establishment, where did you stand on Speaker Martin being given the boot?

    Speaker Martin was awful. Placed by the Labour Party and deserved to be replaced.

    :open_mouth:

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Au contraire.

    Bercow is strengthened by the support of the House against a government that numerically should have won comfortably.

    As PB's voice of the establishment, where did you stand on Speaker Martin being given the boot?

    Speaker Martin was awful. Placed by the Labour Party and deserved to be replaced.

    No change with Bercow then.

    If only, if only, it had been Madame Speaker Beckett.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,782
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Au contraire.

    Bercow is strengthened by the support of the House against a government that numerically should have won comfortably.

    As PB's voice of the establishment, where did you stand on Speaker Martin being given the boot?

    How many wrongs do you reckon make a right, Gin?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JackW said:

    Speaker Martin was awful. Placed by the Labour Party and deserved to be replaced.

    Speaker Martin was Bercow is awful. Placed by the Labour Party and deserveds to be replaced.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Bercow is damaged but fatally so?

    Au contraire.

    Bercow is strengthened by the support of the House against a government that numerically should have won comfortably.

    The Division Lists will be interesting, particularly those Tories supporting Bercow.

    The defeaning cheers from the Labour side really only serve to confirm that he is indeed "their" Speaker.
    I think the Labour cheers were as much against the governments move and their defeat as much as for Bercow as the HoC's man.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,256
    Tykejohnno said:

    isam said:

    On topic

    Dudley North was available at 25/1 at the time of publication of my Ukip hitlist in spring 2013, and was a tier 1 selection. Good luck to those who followed me in


    @isam,did you get to Question David lammy yesterday ?
    I just said hello and goodbye! Have to say he seems a really nice guy, despite our political differences

    My friend who I went with is a socialist and he asked him a question in the show and chatted with him in the pub next door afterwards. I had a chat w Matt Forde

    It was a great show I thoroughly recommend going next time to all PBers. Doesn't matter who you vote for I anmsure you'd love it

    Great impressions of Miliband and Farage in particular

    Kinnock is the guest in May. April and June tbc
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    As a lucky member of the PR of Bercow, this today has been ridiculous and sheer stupidity by my team.

    Whoever thought it was a clever ruse in blue hq, needs to join ukip asap.

    Michael Gove is a crap Chief Whip.

    After the fiasco of the European Arrest warrant vote now this, he's as inept as Crassus at Carrhae
    I think we can safely say he won't be chief whip come June.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,910
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Just watched Walkers speech. Reports of what Cameron said as well about not missing it for the world etc..

    Today's trivial schoolyard stunt really knocks your faith in the competence of your team and for now would even be a wobble for me in calling out Reckless as a TPD.

    It's that stupid.

    Sack up.

    Reckless will always be a TPD.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    JackW said:

    If Bercow's looks could kill the government front bench would be dead meat.

    And that sums up perfectly why Bercow is now so unsuited to the role as 'impartial' Speaker.
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