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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great national – constituency betting divide
My guess is that many constituency bets are placed on the basis of local knowledge and observations while national bets are much more influenced by the overwhelming media narrative that’s emerged over the past month.
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hypocrite
/ˈhɪpəkrɪt/
noun
noun: hypocrite; plural noun: hypocrites
a hypocritical person.
"the story tells of respectable Ben who turns out to be a cheat and a hypocrite"
synonyms:
sanctimonious person, pietist, whited sepulchre, plaster saint, humbug, pretender, deceiver, dissembler, impostor;
informalphoney, Holy Willie;
informalcreeping Jesus;
informalbluenose;
rarePharisee, Tartuffe, Pecksniff, canter
By amount of favs or by implied % chance of winning in each seat?
If it is the former, that solves the puzzle, if its the latter, maybe not
***EDIT***
I guess it must be by implied % as UKIP aren't favs in 7 seats
Word Origin
noun
1.
a pile of old, discarded material, as metal.
2.
a place for dumping old, useless things.
*flimsy reason 1 *flimsy reason 2
William Hague famously said he doesn't believe the election campaign itself makes any difference to the result so it's now or never.
For what its worth I think the Tories are likely to start moving...
Labour Campaign has got it`s act together,Miliband and Balls are starting to sound confident and Labour have got a spring in their step.
Tories on the other hand seem to be just waiting for Crosby to produce his magic.
BigJohnOwls
Spelling-error
Leftist. Tidy pension.
But the so called seat forecasts which base their predictions on past election performances have the Tories ahead in seats, but I can prove their forecasts are junk.
Example: electionforecast has the Tories with a 41% chance to keep Hastings&Rye, the last Ashcroft poll there had Labour with a 9 point lead.
Now do we seriously believe the Tories have an almost 50-50 chance in a seat they are 9 points behind? No, and that is why the betting for Hastings&Rye has Labour ahead with a 4/9.
It may be inconceivable for many that Labour might get most seats by thinking it's 1992 but it's difficult in reality to find the individual seats where the Tories will to hold in order to have most seats.
Is that issue big enough for you? Miliband is a two faced untrustworthy lying barsteward.
When there is a good poll for the Conservatives, their supporters pile in and drive the price down. The reverse does not happen when there is a bad poll, or at least not to the same extent. It's as if a ratchet were holding the price up, until the next bit of good news sweeps the price up to the next level, where it is again locked against any adverse news.
This ratcheting is particularly noticeable in the Spreads, where the spread itself imposes a kind of fine on anybody reversing out their positions. It is less noticeable on Betfair, but persists nonetheless.
In theory it should be negated by a similar effect on Labour prices, but it isn't, so I guess the 'heart over head' principle applies more on the Tory side.
There are of course massive hedging possibilities for those with the funds and the detailed constituency knowledge to exploit the discrepancies.
What you or I think doesn`t matter one jot.
We've already had The Month Of Crossover (January) and The Month Of Pulling Away (February). The reality check may be a way off yet.
The stock markets generally show the same effect.
Some investors don't see how they could have possibly made a "bad bet", until the brick wall gets hit...again.
http://bet2015.co.uk/
Example: You could bet on the Tories winning most seats, but then bet on Labour to win the seats which the Tories need in order to be largest party (like Ipswich, Hastings&Rye ect), but it will require quite a sum of money.
It's probably using a slightly different method but the difference with Mike's figures is not that great. The difference between both and Betfair 'Most Seats' is huge.
There have to be opportunities there for the brave and the skilful.
That is the point, why should I believe a forecast based on the 1979 GE in order to bet on a seat and not a constituency poll for said seat?
There may be 100 problems with Ed Miliband and the Labour party but whether one out of the 100 gains traction during the campaign is my point.
Suggested in P&J that there were more people at Salmond's book signing in Union Street than at Lib Conference in Aberdeen. Photos seem to bear it out!
I'm always cautious when there are such large deviations from all the other constituency and national polls, only if it is confirmed by subsequent polls will I believe it.
That is why I was cautious with the first Sheffield Hallam poll back in October 2010 that showed Clegg in a bad position, but since then the national polls and subsequent constituency polls have reaffirmed the result of the first poll.
And that is the reason Lord A is revisiting the constituencies he polled, now he is showing that the original Southampton Itchen poll was wrong and Labour are 8 points ahead, a result which is in line with all the other polls.
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/527251/queue-turn-out-in-hundreds-alex-salmond-book-signing/
"Elaine Ward, 63, who had travelled all the way from Troon in Ayrshire, said: “I’m very excited, I’ve done work for Alex before and done some campaigning for him, his book is very good.” "
All the secondary questions (PM's satisfaction rating, Government's satisfaction rating, best party on the economy) are moving in the Conservatives' direction. But, the shift in voting intention has been far more glacial.
I think there's a better than even chance that voting intention will finally catch up with the fundamentals, and the Conservatives will achieve the sort of result predicted by Jack W.
Alternatively, fundamentals don't matter any more.
Your wording was clearly ''unless''...
Well, this is an electioneering issue on at least two counts
1 - It clearly demonstrates that 'hedge funds' are not intrinsically evil as Miliband alleges
2 - It shows Miliband was clearly lying when it came to his opinions about taking money from hedge funds.
Nothing I have said on this has anything to do with being tribal.
And as far as BJO is concerned he should realise that the NHS under the tories is clearly having authority devolved as part of the reorganisation - first to commissioners/GPs and currently in a wider sense the whole of Greater Manchester is being given autonomy over its NHS. This is the exact opposite of top down.
And as far as BJO is concerned he should realise that the NHS under the tories is clearly having authority devolved as part of the reorganisation - first to commissioners/GPs and currently in a wider sense the whole of Greater Manchester is being given autonomy over its NHS. This is the exact opposite of top down.
What you think the creation of CCGs and NHS England was bottom up reorganisation.
Even Lansley wouldnt make that claim
Perhaps he is lieing
Oh and no plans to put up VAT?
Meantime what the blazers is going down with Labour's price in the markets? Talk about bear run.
'As can be seen above there’s now a 30-30 CON-LAB split . . ' should be 70-30.
Their tuition fee cut has unraveled as they cannot say how it will be funded. Their promised energy freeze policy has unraveled and has been rebranded as a cap - but they are denying any change.
Labour is trying to lie their way to power more than any party I can remember. It is totally shameless and too many in our broadcast media are not holding them to account for it.
Miliband and Balls cut their teeth alongside the Brown machine of Whelan and McBride - so this very dirty style of politics should come as no surprise.
Except that locally "Union" Street is known as "Onion" Street - it reduces people to tears.
There was an analysis done after 2010 which showed that both methods were inferior to simple UNS forecasting, although that wasn't brilliant either. IIRC, the simple favourite method outperformed the probabilistic model.
Truncating longshots at 20% is probably not ideal. In 2010, around 10% of such candidates won.
L-N ?
Oh and no plans to put up VAT?"
And there we see another Labour lie
Make up a policy that no-one is planning to implement - and use it as a scare tactic.
A Lie is a Lie is a Lie.
Back Your Odds Your Stake Your Profit
Harry Kane 4.79
Labour in all 4 programmes.
Cons in 3
Libs in 2
UKIP in 2.
Not that bad.
David Cameron gets what he wanted. Ed gets nothing.
Which one is better at negotiations?
I'd rather just keep saying what I've been saying for years. Tories most votes, most seats, majority possible.
There will be no Ed-gasm
This election will come down to whether people can close their eyes and imagine PM Miliband standing outside No 10.
I know a number of Labour loyalists who have been campaigning and standing for the party over many years who find that one a leap too far.
Folded like a cheap suit...
Oh, wait...
I really can't see how it will bring anything other than a chance for Farage to look like the big fish in a little pool. Which might be entertaining. Putting Ed in with the minnows - also fun
But serious, balanced political debate that will help voters? Doesn't sound like it to me.
"Balls apparently got the fourth highest first class honours from Oxford in Economics"
That's some achievement, given he didn't study Economics at Oxford! He studied (as all bloody politicians do) PPE, absolutely not the same thing.
However, the national parties can speak about English isssues because they will have a vote on them even though they don't affect their constituents.
So on Scottish health issues only SNP will have a view but on English health issues the Scottish and Welsh independence parties have a vote and thus will be expected to have a view.
How exciting...I can't wait :-) Isn't it basically empty chair without being an empty chair?
Dave was too scared to debate with Farage.
Is that the Farage who will be part of the 7 leader debate?
Or another one?
Furthermore given it will be Sturgeon representing the SNP it will be a politician who will not under any circumstances be sitting in the House of Commons. What sort of nonsense is that?
Or not.
For what my anecdote is worth, out and about among the good people of Torbay today. Sanders is undoubtedly well respected as a local MP, but the LibDem vote is soft - and time after time we are finding the fear of Ed Miliband Prime Minister top trumps the incumbency effect.
The key debate will be the 5-way, which has most potential to shift the polls given that there'll be two empty nets and also that Miliband is by far the most senior figure there and needs to appear as such.
It was a Labour spin tactic that has failed to produce that 'confrontation' - a meeting they never actually wanted to happen.
When I start telling you that due to this fat woman at the station who loves Labour and therefore Labour are about to win this leafy suburb off the Tories,then you can call me on that.
Two prime ministerial contenders debating for 90 minutes instead of producing jokes written by someone else for 3 minutes.What can be so hard about that?
This is the big banana skin for all leaders. Remember last thing Cameron got caught out by the guy in the street with the disabled kid. It is pretty unfair and it was revealed later that the guy was an activist, but too late damage done.
And of course Gordo and the infamous bigot-gate.
Of course I absolutely think politicians should be taking questions from the public, but I think that has bigger potential to blow up than all the stage managed debates. I wish we had a leaders QT every year, plus a chancellor one, etc. I think it would actually help QT and politics to have 4-5 "specials" every year where it is head to head minsters vs their shadows.
People want to see debates not a farce.
"Ed Miliband Prime Minster. Too many people in the country just don't want that."
Left wing voters don't care about the personality of the leader. Like all on the left it's the effort of the team that counts. Only Tories are interested in the tinsel and glitter of politics.
If you're waiting for the voters to decide that Ed's not up to it then you're going to be disappointed. Voters obsessed with that sort of trivia are already in the Cameron camp.
You reckon they fancy you or are thinking "I don't want to say it directly, but I'm gonna dodge this?" #safetyinnumbers
I continually underestimate this guy.
I have a feeling a good many people may have voted before the 30th April...
As even the BBC is forced to admit Greater Manchester will have control of a £6 billion NHS budget.
That is devolution; that is localism. Furthermore it is health and social care, which gives the opportunity for local needs to have a local organisation. Its not top down, but clearly the opportunity and structure for local initiatives has to come from the leadership who hold the budgets.
Rather than sticking your head in the sand what you should be arguing for is 'best practice' to be followed by other local spending and commissioning groups which build on success and do not repeat mistakes.
MIliband is the one who only recently was caught out standing on a box so he didn't look short in a photo with a tall candidate. He is as obsessed with image as any politician.
I would have thought the OFCOM major party status would have made it almost impossible for Clegg to be in there without Farage. How have they got around that?