politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great national – constituency betting divide
My guess is that many constituency bets are placed on the basis of local knowledge and observations while national bets are much more influenced by the overwhelming media narrative that’s emerged over the past month.
When most pollsters tell you that the two parties are tied but we expect the Cons to go up and Lab to go down based on * or *,is it a surprise that Cons have had more money laid on them.
I think this week end is very significant. If the Tories are going to start pulling away as some expect I think we'll see it in the polls today and tomorrow. Everyone now knows there's an election and people will by now know all about the budget.
William Hague famously said he doesn't believe the election campaign itself makes any difference to the result so it's now or never.
For what its worth I think the Tories are likely to start moving...
But the so called seat forecasts which base their predictions on past election performances have the Tories ahead in seats, but I can prove their forecasts are junk. Example: electionforecast has the Tories with a 41% chance to keep Hastings&Rye, the last Ashcroft poll there had Labour with a 9 point lead. Now do we seriously believe the Tories have an almost 50-50 chance in a seat they are 9 points behind? No, and that is why the betting for Hastings&Rye has Labour ahead with a 4/9.
It may be inconceivable for many that Labour might get most seats by thinking it's 1992 but it's difficult in reality to find the individual seats where the Tories will to hold in order to have most seats.
Fwiw,unless Crosby can find an issue to lay into,the Tories have lost this election.
Labour Campaign has got it`s act together,Miliband and Balls are starting to sound confident and Labour have got a spring in their step.
Tories on the other hand seem to be just waiting for Crosby to produce his magic.
Labours act is to tell bare faced lies. They attack donations to tories from hedge funds. They characterise hedge funds (which most people have no clue as to what they do) as evil. They do so not only knowing that they have party funding from a hedge fund they do so knowing they are keeping such donations secret. They do so knowing they are deliberately misleading the electorate into thinking they are not accepting and never would accept donations from hedge funds.
Is that issue big enough for you? Miliband is a two faced untrustworthy lying barsteward.
What'll be very interesting is the party reactions to the polling in the next days and party discipline. If the Tories do not pull a decisive gap expect lots of internal media sniping at Crosby. If they do expect lots of media sniping from Labour that it lacks any strategic narrative. By the beginning of the five week campaign many people internally will already think it is all lost for their team and behave accordingly which is badly.
One contributory factor, Mike, is the ratchet effect.
When there is a good poll for the Conservatives, their supporters pile in and drive the price down. The reverse does not happen when there is a bad poll, or at least not to the same extent. It's as if a ratchet were holding the price up, until the next bit of good news sweeps the price up to the next level, where it is again locked against any adverse news.
This ratcheting is particularly noticeable in the Spreads, where the spread itself imposes a kind of fine on anybody reversing out their positions. It is less noticeable on Betfair, but persists nonetheless.
In theory it should be negated by a similar effect on Labour prices, but it isn't, so I guess the 'heart over head' principle applies more on the Tory side.
There are of course massive hedging possibilities for those with the funds and the detailed constituency knowledge to exploit the discrepancies.
Fwiw,unless Crosby can find an issue to lay into,the Tories have lost this election.
Labour Campaign has got it`s act together,Miliband and Balls are starting to sound confident and Labour have got a spring in their step.
Tories on the other hand seem to be just waiting for Crosby to produce his magic.
Labours act is to tell bare faced lies. They attack donations to tories from hedge funds. They characterise hedge funds (which most people have no clue as to what they do) as evil. They do so not only knowing that they have party funding from a hedge fund they do so knowing they are keeping such donations secret. They do so knowing they are deliberately misleading the electorate into thinking they are not accepting and never would accept donations from hedge funds.
Is that issue big enough for you? Miliband is a two faced untrustworthy lying barsteward.
FPP2015 seems to use a Monte Carlo simulation. In reality these outcomes across seats are hugely correlated (that's why Uniform National Swing is useful) so an aggregate forecast may be "central", but not necessarily a sensible expected value for the total number of seats for any party. Discarding odds greater than 4/1 is probably unsound, but it seems to be necessary to make their aggregation method work, because otherwise they would end up predicting something like nine Ukip seats.
What'll be very interesting is the party reactions to the polling in the next days and party discipline. If the Tories do not pull a decisive gap expect lots of internal media sniping at Crosby. If they do expect lots of media sniping from Labour that it lacks any strategic narrative. By the beginning of the five week campaign many people internally will already think it is all lost for their team and behave accordingly which is badly.
Hmmm, not sure, Tyson.
We've already had The Month Of Crossover (January) and The Month Of Pulling Away (February). The reality check may be a way off yet.
@Peter_the_Punter The stock markets generally show the same effect. Some investors don't see how they could have possibly made a "bad bet", until the brick wall gets hit...again.
Fwiw,unless Crosby can find an issue to lay into,the Tories have lost this election.
Labour Campaign has got it`s act together,Miliband and Balls are starting to sound confident and Labour have got a spring in their step.
Tories on the other hand seem to be just waiting for Crosby to produce his magic.
Labours act is to tell bare faced lies. They attack donations to tories from hedge funds. They characterise hedge funds (which most people have no clue as to what they do) as evil. They do so not only knowing that they have party funding from a hedge fund they do so knowing they are keeping such donations secret. They do so knowing they are deliberately misleading the electorate into thinking they are not accepting and never would accept donations from hedge funds.
Is that issue big enough for you? Miliband is a two faced untrustworthy lying barsteward.
You seem to have missed the point.
What you or I think doesn't matter one jot.
You are refusing to take the point. You asked for an issue. The 'issue' is that Miliband is a bare faced liar.
I think this week end is very significant. If the Tories are going to start pulling away as some expect I think we'll see it in the polls today and tomorrow. Everyone now knows there's an election and people will by now know all about the budget.
William Hague famously said he doesn't believe the election campaign itself makes any difference to the result so it's now or never.
For what its worth I think the Tories are likely to start moving...
Is that the first time you have ever agreed with Hague? Guess it's only because it allows you to erect a straw man, if there is little discernible movement in the polls for the Tories (which could include a couple of narrow leads) you will declare they cannot win the election.
That website looks at the favourite in each constituency. So Thurrock counts as 1 Ukip, 0 Labour, 0 Conservative. The First Past the Post website sums expectations, discarding odds above 4/1: Thurrock then counts as approximately 2/3 Ukip, 1/3 Labour, 0 Conservative. (Bet2015 also has its problems: for instance, marking Manchester Central as a Labour Co-op Gain from Labour!)
Fwiw,unless Crosby can find an issue to lay into,the Tories have lost this election.
Labour Campaign has got it`s act together,Miliband and Balls are starting to sound confident and Labour have got a spring in their step.
Tories on the other hand seem to be just waiting for Crosby to produce his magic.
Labours act is to tell bare faced lies. They attack donations to tories from hedge funds. They characterise hedge funds (which most people have no clue as to what they do) as evil. They do so not only knowing that they have party funding from a hedge fund they do so knowing they are keeping such donations secret. They do so knowing they are deliberately misleading the electorate into thinking they are not accepting and never would accept donations from hedge funds.
Is that issue big enough for you? Miliband is a two faced untrustworthy lying barsteward.
You seem to have missed the point.
What you or I think doesn't matter one jot.
You are refusing to take the point. You asked for an issue. The 'issue' is that Miliband is a bare faced liar.
One contributory factor, Mike, is the ratchet effect.
When there is a good poll for the Conservatives, their supporters pile in and drive the price down. The reverse does not happen when there is a bad poll, or at least not to the same extent. It's as if a ratchet were holding the price up, until the next bit of good news sweeps the price up to the next level, where it is again locked against any adverse news.
This ratcheting is particularly noticeable in the Spreads, where the spread itself imposes a kind of fine on anybody reversing out their positions. It is less noticeable on Betfair, but persists nonetheless.
In theory it should be negated by a similar effect on Labour prices, but it isn't, so I guess the 'heart over head' principle applies more on the Tory side.
There are of course massive hedging possibilities for those with the funds and the detailed constituency knowledge to exploit the discrepancies.
One could hedge with betting on individual seats on Labour and most seats on the Tories. Example: You could bet on the Tories winning most seats, but then bet on Labour to win the seats which the Tories need in order to be largest party (like Ipswich, Hastings&Rye ect), but it will require quite a sum of money.
But the so called seat forecasts which base their predictions on past election performances have the Tories ahead in seats, but I can prove their forecasts are junk. Example: electionforecast has the Tories with a 41% chance to keep Hastings&Rye, the last Ashcroft poll there had Labour with a 9 point lead. Now do we seriously believe the Tories have an almost 50-50 chance in a seat they are 9 points behind? No, and that is why the betting for Hastings&Rye has Labour ahead with a 4/9.
It may be inconceivable for many that Labour might get most seats by thinking it's 1992 but it's difficult in reality to find the individual seats where the Tories will to hold in order to have most seats.
It's not proof to quote a poll as evidence of anything. A poll is a snapshot , not a forecast. To use it as evidence against another method of forecast really is junk.
It's probably using a slightly different method but the difference with Mike's figures is not that great. The difference between both and Betfair 'Most Seats' is huge.
There have to be opportunities there for the brave and the skilful.
Canvassing anecdote, did 4 hours this morning in a split ward between Conservative and Labour. Strong Conservative support, bit of seepage to UKIP who are thinking twice with recent events. Didn't come across one strong Labour voter strangely enough. 4 from last time who are strongly wavering. Just wonder whether the Labour vote will turn out, seems to be very little enthusiasm for Labour on the doorstep, even less Miliband.
But the so called seat forecasts which base their predictions on past election performances have the Tories ahead in seats, but I can prove their forecasts are junk. Example: electionforecast has the Tories with a 41% chance to keep Hastings&Rye, the last Ashcroft poll there had Labour with a 9 point lead. Now do we seriously believe the Tories have an almost 50-50 chance in a seat they are 9 points behind? No, and that is why the betting for Hastings&Rye has Labour ahead with a 4/9.
It may be inconceivable for many that Labour might get most seats by thinking it's 1992 but it's difficult in reality to find the individual seats where the Tories will to hold in order to have most seats.
It's not proof to quote a poll as evidence of anything. A poll is a snapshot , not a forecast. To use it as evidence against another method of forecast really is junk.
But would you really believe the Tories have an almost 50-50 chance in that seat, despite polls showing them 9 points behind in that seat?
That is the point, why should I believe a forecast based on the 1979 GE in order to bet on a seat and not a constituency poll for said seat?
Fwiw,unless Crosby can find an issue to lay into,the Tories have lost this election.
Labour Campaign has got it`s act together,Miliband and Balls are starting to sound confident and Labour have got a spring in their step.
Tories on the other hand seem to be just waiting for Crosby to produce his magic.
Labours act is to tell bare faced lies. They attack donations to tories from hedge funds. They characterise hedge funds (which most people have no clue as to what they do) as evil. They do so not only knowing that they have party funding from a hedge fund they do so knowing they are keeping such donations secret. They do so knowing they are deliberately misleading the electorate into thinking they are not accepting and never would accept donations from hedge funds.
Is that issue big enough for you? Miliband is a two faced untrustworthy lying barsteward.
You seem to have missed the point.
What you or I think doesn't matter one jot.
You are refusing to take the point. You asked for an issue. The 'issue' is that Miliband is a bare faced liar.
I do wonder sometimes whether people are thick or are too blindly tribal to understand.
There may be 100 problems with Ed Miliband and the Labour party but whether one out of the 100 gains traction during the campaign is my point.
Judging by the number of glossy flyers dropping through the letterbox the Tories clearly think they have a chance in Morley & Outwood. Today a glossy Conservative Budget Report and a glossy Andrea Jenkins plan for the constituency have just landed. There's been several newsletters in the last couple of months too.
But the so called seat forecasts which base their predictions on past election performances have the Tories ahead in seats, but I can prove their forecasts are junk. Example: electionforecast has the Tories with a 41% chance to keep Hastings&Rye, the last Ashcroft poll there had Labour with a 9 point lead. Now do we seriously believe the Tories have an almost 50-50 chance in a seat they are 9 points behind? No, and that is why the betting for Hastings&Rye has Labour ahead with a 4/9.
It may be inconceivable for many that Labour might get most seats by thinking it's 1992 but it's difficult in reality to find the individual seats where the Tories will to hold in order to have most seats.
It's not proof to quote a poll as evidence of anything. A poll is a snapshot , not a forecast. To use it as evidence against another method of forecast really is junk.
But would you really believe the Tories have an almost 50-50 chance in that seat, despite polls showing them 9 points behind in that seat?
That is the point, why should I believe a forecast based on the 1979 GE in order to bet on a seat and not a constituency poll for said seat?
Remember the Southampton, Itchen marginal poll from August that had Labour and the Conservatives tied?
Fwiw,unless Crosby can find an issue to lay into,the Tories have lost this election.
Labour Campaign has got it`s act together,Miliband and Balls are starting to sound confident and Labour have got a spring in their step.
Tories on the other hand seem to be just waiting for Crosby to produce his magic.
Labours act is to tell bare faced lies. They attack donations to tories from hedge funds. They characterise hedge funds (which most people have no clue as to what they do) as evil. They do so not only knowing that they have party funding from a hedge fund they do so knowing they are keeping such donations secret. They do so knowing they are deliberately misleading the electorate into thinking they are not accepting and never would accept donations from hedge funds.
Is that issue big enough for you? Miliband is a two faced untrustworthy lying barsteward.
You seem to have missed the point.
What you or I think doesn't matter one jot.
You are refusing to take the point. You asked for an issue. The 'issue' is that Miliband is a bare faced liar.
I do wonder sometimes whether people are thick or are too blindly tribal to understand.
There may be 100 problems with Ed Miliband and the Labour party but whether one out of the 100 gains traction during the campaign is my point.
Ed Miliband Prime Minster. Too many people in the country just don't want that.
But the so called seat forecasts which base their predictions on past election performances have the Tories ahead in seats, but I can prove their forecasts are junk. Example: electionforecast has the Tories with a 41% chance to keep Hastings&Rye, the last Ashcroft poll there had Labour with a 9 point lead. Now do we seriously believe the Tories have an almost 50-50 chance in a seat they are 9 points behind? No, and that is why the betting for Hastings&Rye has Labour ahead with a 4/9.
It may be inconceivable for many that Labour might get most seats by thinking it's 1992 but it's difficult in reality to find the individual seats where the Tories will to hold in order to have most seats.
It's not proof to quote a poll as evidence of anything. A poll is a snapshot , not a forecast. To use it as evidence against another method of forecast really is junk.
But would you really believe the Tories have an almost 50-50 chance in that seat, despite polls showing them 9 points behind in that seat?
That is the point, why should I believe a forecast based on the 1979 GE in order to bet on a seat and not a constituency poll for said seat?
Remember the Southampton, Itchen marginal poll from August that had Labour and the Conservatives tied?
That is finally a reasonable point, the clue here is that it was a very unusual poll result that showed a swing to the Tories in complete contradiction to all the other polls. I'm always cautious when there are such large deviations from all the other constituency and national polls, only if it is confirmed by subsequent polls will I believe it.
That is why I was cautious with the first Sheffield Hallam poll back in October 2010 that showed Clegg in a bad position, but since then the national polls and subsequent constituency polls have reaffirmed the result of the first poll.
And that is the reason Lord A is revisiting the constituencies he polled, now he is showing that the original Southampton Itchen poll was wrong and Labour are 8 points ahead, a result which is in line with all the other polls.
"Elaine Ward, 63, who had travelled all the way from Troon in Ayrshire, said: “I’m very excited, I’ve done work for Alex before and done some campaigning for him, his book is very good.” "
Fwiw,unless Crosby can find an issue to lay into,the Tories have lost this election.
Labour Campaign has got it`s act together,Miliband and Balls are starting to sound confident and Labour have got a spring in their step.
Tories on the other hand seem to be just waiting for Crosby to produce his magic.
Labours act is to tell bare faced lies. They attack donations to tories from hedge funds. They characterise hedge funds (which most people have no clue as to what they do) as evil. They do so not only knowing that they have party funding from a hedge fund they do so knowing they are keeping such donations secret. They do so knowing they are deliberately misleading the electorate into thinking they are not accepting and never would accept donations from hedge funds.
Is that issue big enough for you? Miliband is a two faced untrustworthy lying barsteward.
You seem to have missed the point.
What you or I think doesn't matter one jot.
You are refusing to take the point. You asked for an issue. The 'issue' is that Miliband is a bare faced liar.
I do wonder sometimes whether people are thick or are too blindly tribal to understand.
There may be 100 problems with Ed Miliband and the Labour party but whether one out of the 100 gains traction during the campaign is my point.
Ed Miliband Prime Minster. Too many people in the country just don't want that.
Perhaps people just don't care how good or bad he is.
All the secondary questions (PM's satisfaction rating, Government's satisfaction rating, best party on the economy) are moving in the Conservatives' direction. But, the shift in voting intention has been far more glacial.
I think there's a better than even chance that voting intention will finally catch up with the fundamentals, and the Conservatives will achieve the sort of result predicted by Jack W.
Alternatively, fundamentals don't matter any more.
Fwiw,unless Crosby can find an issue to lay into,the Tories have lost this election.
Labour Campaign has got it`s act together,Miliband and Balls are starting to sound confident and Labour have got a spring in their step.
Tories on the other hand seem to be just waiting for Crosby to produce his magic.
Labours act is to tell bare faced lies. They attack donations to tories from hedge funds. They characterise hedge funds (which most people have no clue as to what they do) as evil. They do so not only knowing that they have party funding from a hedge fund they do so knowing they are keeping such donations secret. They do so knowing they are deliberately misleading the electorate into thinking they are not accepting and never would accept donations from hedge funds.
Is that issue big enough for you? Miliband is a two faced untrustworthy lying barsteward.
You seem to have missed the point.
What you or I think doesn't matter one jot.
You are refusing to take the point. You asked for an issue. The 'issue' is that Miliband is a bare faced liar.
I do wonder sometimes whether people are thick or are too blindly tribal to understand.
There may be 100 problems with Ed Miliband and the Labour party but whether one out of the 100 gains traction during the campaign is my point.
So no matter what points are made to you this gives you the right to ignore them... is that right? A major plank of labours appeal is - as NPexMP has clearly lauded, his alleged willingness to take on vested interests. Miliband has made this his appeal. He uses hedge funds as a clear example. All the while this is going on he knows full well he is taking money from a hedge fund. Your wording was clearly ''unless''... Well, this is an electioneering issue on at least two counts 1 - It clearly demonstrates that 'hedge funds' are not intrinsically evil as Miliband alleges 2 - It shows Miliband was clearly lying when it came to his opinions about taking money from hedge funds.
Nothing I have said on this has anything to do with being tribal. And as far as BJO is concerned he should realise that the NHS under the tories is clearly having authority devolved as part of the reorganisation - first to commissioners/GPs and currently in a wider sense the whole of Greater Manchester is being given autonomy over its NHS. This is the exact opposite of top down.
And as far as BJO is concerned he should realise that the NHS under the tories is clearly having authority devolved as part of the reorganisation - first to commissioners/GPs and currently in a wider sense the whole of Greater Manchester is being given autonomy over its NHS. This is the exact opposite of top down.
What you think the creation of CCGs and NHS England was bottom up reorganisation. Even Lansley wouldnt make that claim
BBC News website still has no mention whatsoever of Ed and his hedgie mate. Sky News site is covering it. Honestly. does anyone seriously think the BBC is politically impartial?
BBC News website still has no mention whatsoever of Ed and his hedgie mate. Sky News site is covering it. Honestly. does anyone seriously think the BBC is politically impartial?
Must admit given the hype they gave the tory donors [lead headline iirc?] it does seem unbalanced and unfair.
Meantime what the blazers is going down with Labour's price in the markets? Talk about bear run.
Fwiw,unless Crosby can find an issue to lay into,the Tories have lost this election.
Labour Campaign has got it`s act together,Miliband and Balls are starting to sound confident and Labour have got a spring in their step.
Tories on the other hand seem to be just waiting for Crosby to produce his magic.
Labours act is to tell bare faced lies. They attack donations to tories from hedge funds. They characterise hedge funds (which most people have no clue as to what they do) as evil. They do so not only knowing that they have party funding from a hedge fund they do so knowing they are keeping such donations secret. They do so knowing they are deliberately misleading the electorate into thinking they are not accepting and never would accept donations from hedge funds.
Is that issue big enough for you? Miliband is a two faced untrustworthy lying barsteward.
Labour is using scare tactics - with their lines about a VAT rise (for which there is no evidence), cuts to NHS funding (which have been explicitly rules out), cuts back to spending levels of the 1930s (which don't stand up to scrutiny), the 'everyone is £1600 worse off' line (which is made up from partial statistics)
Their tuition fee cut has unraveled as they cannot say how it will be funded. Their promised energy freeze policy has unraveled and has been rebranded as a cap - but they are denying any change.
Labour is trying to lie their way to power more than any party I can remember. It is totally shameless and too many in our broadcast media are not holding them to account for it.
Miliband and Balls cut their teeth alongside the Brown machine of Whelan and McBride - so this very dirty style of politics should come as no surprise.
Two excellent new sites on the constituency odds I see.
There was an analysis done after 2010 which showed that both methods were inferior to simple UNS forecasting, although that wasn't brilliant either. IIRC, the simple favourite method outperformed the probabilistic model.
Truncating longshots at 20% is probably not ideal. In 2010, around 10% of such candidates won.
Two excellent new sites on the constituency odds I see.
There was an analysis done after 2010 which showed that both methods were inferior to simple UNS forecasting, although that wasn't brilliant either. IIRC, the simple favourite method outperformed the probabilistic model.
Truncating longshots at 20% is probably not ideal. In 2010, around 10% of such candidates won.
Ok. Labour in all 4 programmes. Cons in 3 Libs in 2 UKIP in 2.
Not that bad.
Remember, the more people see of Miliband, the lower the Labour poll rating goes. Keep him out of the spotlight, Labour goes up, put him in the spotlight - and things go wrong.
Ok. Labour in all 4 programmes. Cons in 3 Libs in 2 UKIP in 2.
Not that bad.
Remember, the more people see of Miliband, the lower the Labour poll rating goes. Keep him out of the spotlight, Labour goes up, put him in the spotlight - and things go wrong.
Two excellent new sites on the constituency odds I see.
There was an analysis done after 2010 which showed that both methods were inferior to simple UNS forecasting, although that wasn't brilliant either. IIRC, the simple favourite method outperformed the probabilistic model.
Truncating longshots at 20% is probably not ideal. In 2010, around 10% of such candidates won.
Have you decided upon a model yet ?
L-N ?
Oh, I've got to pick a model? That's awkward... (^_-)
I'd rather just keep saying what I've been saying for years. Tories most votes, most seats, majority possible.
Ok. Labour in all 4 programmes. Cons in 3 Libs in 2 UKIP in 2.
Not that bad.
Remember, the more people see of Miliband, the lower the Labour poll rating goes. Keep him out of the spotlight, Labour goes up, put him in the spotlight - and things go wrong.
Let`s see what are the polls on the 30th April.
I can be quite confident that no serious party leader will say 'I agree with Ed'
There will be no Ed-gasm
This election will come down to whether people can close their eyes and imagine PM Miliband standing outside No 10.
I know a number of Labour loyalists who have been campaigning and standing for the party over many years who find that one a leap too far.
Ok. Labour in all 4 programmes. Cons in 3 Libs in 2 UKIP in 2.
Not that bad.
Remember, the more people see of Miliband, the lower the Labour poll rating goes. Keep him out of the spotlight, Labour goes up, put him in the spotlight - and things go wrong.
Let`s see what are the polls on the 30th April.
I can be quite confident that no serious party leader will say 'I agree with Ed'
There will be no Ed-gasm
This election will come down to whether people can close their eyes and imagine PM Miliband standing outside No 10.
I know a number of Labour loyalists who have been campaigning and standing for the party over many years who find that one a leap too far.
When I come to anecdotes on PB as evidence of what`s likely to happen,I stop reading.
Can someone explain to me how the 'Opposition Leaders' debate will work?
I really can't see how it will bring anything other than a chance for Farage to look like the big fish in a little pool. Which might be entertaining. Putting Ed in with the minnows - also fun
But serious, balanced political debate that will help voters? Doesn't sound like it to me.
So in these debates - how are questions about areas of devolved responsibility treated?
Only the relevant national party can have anything relevant to say about devolved issues.
However, the national parties can speak about English isssues because they will have a vote on them even though they don't affect their constituents.
So on Scottish health issues only SNP will have a view but on English health issues the Scottish and Welsh independence parties have a vote and thus will be expected to have a view.
@paulwaugh: No10 source:"If anything, this is an improvement on the deal we were offered last wk" PM always sd too many debates wd suck life out of elxn
So in these debates - how are questions about areas of devolved responsibility treated?
Only the relevant national party can have anything relevant to say about devolved issues.
However, the national parties can speak about English isssues because they will have a vote on them even though they don't affect their constituents.
So on Scottish health issues only SNP will have a view but on English health issues the Scottish and Welsh independence parties have a vote and thus will be expected to have a view.
Yet what value is that to English viewers given they cannot vote against them (unless they vote for a Labour majority government). Basically all the TV companies are doing is rubbing English voters noses in it. For anyone who values the Union it is an extremely damaging thing to do which will only exacerbate resentment and further advance the independence cause.
Furthermore given it will be Sturgeon representing the SNP it will be a politician who will not under any circumstances be sitting in the House of Commons. What sort of nonsense is that?
Ok. Labour in all 4 programmes. Cons in 3 Libs in 2 UKIP in 2.
Not that bad.
Remember, the more people see of Miliband, the lower the Labour poll rating goes. Keep him out of the spotlight, Labour goes up, put him in the spotlight - and things go wrong.
Let`s see what are the polls on the 30th April.
I can be quite confident that no serious party leader will say 'I agree with Ed'
There will be no Ed-gasm
This election will come down to whether people can close their eyes and imagine PM Miliband standing outside No 10.
I know a number of Labour loyalists who have been campaigning and standing for the party over many years who find that one a leap too far.
When I come to anecdotes on PB as evidence of what`s likely to happen,I stop reading.
Well try sharing your own canvassing anecdotes then. Tell us how the folk you are meeting on the doorstep are just gagging for Ed Miliband Prime Minister.
Or not.
For what my anecdote is worth, out and about among the good people of Torbay today. Sanders is undoubtedly well respected as a local MP, but the LibDem vote is soft - and time after time we are finding the fear of Ed Miliband Prime Minister top trumps the incumbency effect.
Got to say, ballsy and impressive negotiating from CCHQ. I wouldn't have been brave enough to do what they did. Indeed, I advocated accepting what would have been a much worse option on the basis that the broadcasters wouldn't blink. Not only did they blink but rolled over and had their tummy tickled.
The key debate will be the 5-way, which has most potential to shift the polls given that there'll be two empty nets and also that Miliband is by far the most senior figure there and needs to appear as such.
BBC News website still has no mention whatsoever of Ed and his hedgie mate. Sky News site is covering it. Honestly. does anyone seriously think the BBC is politically impartial?
Hmm, Ed’s £600K hedge fund donor has been reported by all the major newspapers, Sky giving it major coverage on their on-line site, even the Evening Stardard has covered it – and yet the BBC has no write up anywhere, whatsoever. Quite unbelievable really.
Ok. Labour in all 4 programmes. Cons in 3 Libs in 2 UKIP in 2.
Not that bad.
Remember, the more people see of Miliband, the lower the Labour poll rating goes. Keep him out of the spotlight, Labour goes up, put him in the spotlight - and things go wrong.
Let`s see what are the polls on the 30th April.
I can be quite confident that no serious party leader will say 'I agree with Ed'
There will be no Ed-gasm
This election will come down to whether people can close their eyes and imagine PM Miliband standing outside No 10.
I know a number of Labour loyalists who have been campaigning and standing for the party over many years who find that one a leap too far.
When I come to anecdotes on PB as evidence of what`s likely to happen,I stop reading.
Well try sharing your own canvassing anecdotes then. Tell us how the folk you are meeting on the doorstep are just gagging for Ed Miliband Prime Minister.
Or not.
For what my anecdote is worth, out and about among the good people of Torbay today. Sanders is undoubtedly well respected as a local MP, but the LibDem vote is soft - and time after time we are finding the fear of Ed Miliband Prime Minister top trumps the incumbency effect.
Aah,good to know you were reading mate.
When I start telling you that due to this fat woman at the station who loves Labour and therefore Labour are about to win this leafy suburb off the Tories,then you can call me on that.
Got to say, ballsy and impressive negotiating from CCHQ. I wouldn't have been brave enough to do what they did. Indeed, I advocated accepting what would have been a much worse option on the basis that the broadcasters wouldn't blink. Not only did they blink but rolled over and had their tummy tickled.
The key debate will be the 5-way, which has most potential to shift the polls given that there'll be two empty nets and also that Miliband is by far the most senior figure there and needs to appear as such.
He might be - but Farage will not want to be outshone. And I think I know who would be likely to come off best in front of the cameras. And it isn't Ed.
BBC News website still has no mention whatsoever of Ed and his hedgie mate. Sky News site is covering it. Honestly. does anyone seriously think the BBC is politically impartial?
Hmm, Ed’s £600K hedge fund donor has been reported by all the major newspapers, Sky giving it major coverage on their on-line site, even the Evening Stardard has covered it – and yet the BBC has no write up anywhere, whatsoever. Quite unbelievable really.
Sadly it is what we have come to expect from the BBC News team.
The bottom line of the debate shenanigans debates..
Dave was too scared to debate with Farage.
And that`s why he ducked out of the head to head with Ed Miliband.WOW
There was never a serious likelihood of that happening. Ever.
It was a Labour spin tactic that has failed to produce that 'confrontation' - a meeting they never actually wanted to happen.
It was the broadcasters that made the offer.
Two prime ministerial contenders debating for 90 minutes instead of producing jokes written by someone else for 3 minutes.What can be so hard about that?
Will anyone bother watching the opposition debate? The answer to that question will show whether the broadcasters were right to cave in to the Conservatives.
Ok. Labour in all 4 programmes. Cons in 3 Libs in 2 UKIP in 2.
Not that bad.
Remember, the more people see of Miliband, the lower the Labour poll rating goes. Keep him out of the spotlight, Labour goes up, put him in the spotlight - and things go wrong.
30 April: BBC Question Time programme with David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg, presented by David Dimbleby
This is the big banana skin for all leaders. Remember last thing Cameron got caught out by the guy in the street with the disabled kid. It is pretty unfair and it was revealed later that the guy was an activist, but too late damage done.
And of course Gordo and the infamous bigot-gate.
Of course I absolutely think politicians should be taking questions from the public, but I think that has bigger potential to blow up than all the stage managed debates. I wish we had a leaders QT every year, plus a chancellor one, etc. I think it would actually help QT and politics to have 4-5 "specials" every year where it is head to head minsters vs their shadows.
The bottom line of the debate shenanigans debates..
Dave was too scared to debate with Farage.
And that`s why he ducked out of the head to head with Ed Miliband.WOW
There was never a serious likelihood of that happening. Ever.
It was a Labour spin tactic that has failed to produce that 'confrontation' - a meeting they never actually wanted to happen.
It was the broadcasters that made the offer.
Two prime ministerial contenders debating for 90 minutes instead of producing jokes written by someone else for 3 minutes.What can be so hard about that?
You think they would actually be delivering off-the-cuff answers? Of course not. They would be sticking to their carefully prepared lines. Though whether Ed would remember to talk about the economy or immigration is open to question - given his form when it comes to set-piece events.
Will anyone bother watching the opposition debate? The answer to that question will show whether the broadcasters were right to cave in to the Conservatives.
The opposition debate will get more hits than the 1 to 1 with the 3 leaders.
"Ed Miliband Prime Minster. Too many people in the country just don't want that."
Left wing voters don't care about the personality of the leader. Like all on the left it's the effort of the team that counts. Only Tories are interested in the tinsel and glitter of politics.
If you're waiting for the voters to decide that Ed's not up to it then you're going to be disappointed. Voters obsessed with that sort of trivia are already in the Cameron camp.
If the broadcasters were serious about debates, they should have collectively sponsored debates in each constituency so that voters could have access to all of the candidates for whom they could vote - that is where debates are really needed. None of this other nonsense.
@JohnRentoul: Winners: Cameron & a fine sense of the absurd. Format now 2-7-5-3. Only one is a debate (the 7), and no empty chair http://t.co/ynLGY4vTFN
Will anyone bother watching the opposition debate? The answer to that question will show whether the broadcasters were right to cave in to the Conservatives.
The opposition debate will get more hits than the 1 to 1 with the 3 leaders.
People want to see debates not a farce.
The debates have been diluted and don't forget the campaign will have begun with 24 hour tv coverage, the programmes may well suffer from voter fatigue
Mr Owls - NHS England is the 'NHS' as far as England is concerned. The NHS in Wales and Scotland are devolved. As such it is just the authorising board under which the local commissioning group operate. As even the BBC is forced to admit Greater Manchester will have control of a £6 billion NHS budget. That is devolution; that is localism. Furthermore it is health and social care, which gives the opportunity for local needs to have a local organisation. Its not top down, but clearly the opportunity and structure for local initiatives has to come from the leadership who hold the budgets. Rather than sticking your head in the sand what you should be arguing for is 'best practice' to be followed by other local spending and commissioning groups which build on success and do not repeat mistakes.
"Ed Miliband Prime Minster. Too many people in the country just don't want that."
Left wing voters don't care about the personality of the leader. Like all on the left it's the effort of the team that counts. Only Tories are interested in the tinsel and glitter of politics.
If you're waiting for the voters to decide that Ed's not up to it then you're going to be disappointed. Voters obsessed with that sort of trivia are already in the Cameron camp.
That is tosh and you know it
MIliband is the one who only recently was caught out standing on a box so he didn't look short in a photo with a tall candidate. He is as obsessed with image as any politician.
Farage the only major party leader not invited to QT - poor negociation.
Poor what?
I would have thought the OFCOM major party status would have made it almost impossible for Clegg to be in there without Farage. How have they got around that?
Comments
hypocrite
/ˈhɪpəkrɪt/
noun
noun: hypocrite; plural noun: hypocrites
a hypocritical person.
"the story tells of respectable Ben who turns out to be a cheat and a hypocrite"
synonyms:
sanctimonious person, pietist, whited sepulchre, plaster saint, humbug, pretender, deceiver, dissembler, impostor;
informalphoney, Holy Willie;
informalcreeping Jesus;
informalbluenose;
rarePharisee, Tartuffe, Pecksniff, canter
By amount of favs or by implied % chance of winning in each seat?
If it is the former, that solves the puzzle, if its the latter, maybe not
***EDIT***
I guess it must be by implied % as UKIP aren't favs in 7 seats
Word Origin
noun
1.
a pile of old, discarded material, as metal.
2.
a place for dumping old, useless things.
*flimsy reason 1 *flimsy reason 2
William Hague famously said he doesn't believe the election campaign itself makes any difference to the result so it's now or never.
For what its worth I think the Tories are likely to start moving...
Labour Campaign has got it`s act together,Miliband and Balls are starting to sound confident and Labour have got a spring in their step.
Tories on the other hand seem to be just waiting for Crosby to produce his magic.
BigJohnOwls
Spelling-error
Leftist. Tidy pension.
But the so called seat forecasts which base their predictions on past election performances have the Tories ahead in seats, but I can prove their forecasts are junk.
Example: electionforecast has the Tories with a 41% chance to keep Hastings&Rye, the last Ashcroft poll there had Labour with a 9 point lead.
Now do we seriously believe the Tories have an almost 50-50 chance in a seat they are 9 points behind? No, and that is why the betting for Hastings&Rye has Labour ahead with a 4/9.
It may be inconceivable for many that Labour might get most seats by thinking it's 1992 but it's difficult in reality to find the individual seats where the Tories will to hold in order to have most seats.
Is that issue big enough for you? Miliband is a two faced untrustworthy lying barsteward.
When there is a good poll for the Conservatives, their supporters pile in and drive the price down. The reverse does not happen when there is a bad poll, or at least not to the same extent. It's as if a ratchet were holding the price up, until the next bit of good news sweeps the price up to the next level, where it is again locked against any adverse news.
This ratcheting is particularly noticeable in the Spreads, where the spread itself imposes a kind of fine on anybody reversing out their positions. It is less noticeable on Betfair, but persists nonetheless.
In theory it should be negated by a similar effect on Labour prices, but it isn't, so I guess the 'heart over head' principle applies more on the Tory side.
There are of course massive hedging possibilities for those with the funds and the detailed constituency knowledge to exploit the discrepancies.
What you or I think doesn`t matter one jot.
We've already had The Month Of Crossover (January) and The Month Of Pulling Away (February). The reality check may be a way off yet.
The stock markets generally show the same effect.
Some investors don't see how they could have possibly made a "bad bet", until the brick wall gets hit...again.
http://bet2015.co.uk/
Example: You could bet on the Tories winning most seats, but then bet on Labour to win the seats which the Tories need in order to be largest party (like Ipswich, Hastings&Rye ect), but it will require quite a sum of money.
It's probably using a slightly different method but the difference with Mike's figures is not that great. The difference between both and Betfair 'Most Seats' is huge.
There have to be opportunities there for the brave and the skilful.
That is the point, why should I believe a forecast based on the 1979 GE in order to bet on a seat and not a constituency poll for said seat?
There may be 100 problems with Ed Miliband and the Labour party but whether one out of the 100 gains traction during the campaign is my point.
Suggested in P&J that there were more people at Salmond's book signing in Union Street than at Lib Conference in Aberdeen. Photos seem to bear it out!
I'm always cautious when there are such large deviations from all the other constituency and national polls, only if it is confirmed by subsequent polls will I believe it.
That is why I was cautious with the first Sheffield Hallam poll back in October 2010 that showed Clegg in a bad position, but since then the national polls and subsequent constituency polls have reaffirmed the result of the first poll.
And that is the reason Lord A is revisiting the constituencies he polled, now he is showing that the original Southampton Itchen poll was wrong and Labour are 8 points ahead, a result which is in line with all the other polls.
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/527251/queue-turn-out-in-hundreds-alex-salmond-book-signing/
"Elaine Ward, 63, who had travelled all the way from Troon in Ayrshire, said: “I’m very excited, I’ve done work for Alex before and done some campaigning for him, his book is very good.” "
All the secondary questions (PM's satisfaction rating, Government's satisfaction rating, best party on the economy) are moving in the Conservatives' direction. But, the shift in voting intention has been far more glacial.
I think there's a better than even chance that voting intention will finally catch up with the fundamentals, and the Conservatives will achieve the sort of result predicted by Jack W.
Alternatively, fundamentals don't matter any more.
Your wording was clearly ''unless''...
Well, this is an electioneering issue on at least two counts
1 - It clearly demonstrates that 'hedge funds' are not intrinsically evil as Miliband alleges
2 - It shows Miliband was clearly lying when it came to his opinions about taking money from hedge funds.
Nothing I have said on this has anything to do with being tribal.
And as far as BJO is concerned he should realise that the NHS under the tories is clearly having authority devolved as part of the reorganisation - first to commissioners/GPs and currently in a wider sense the whole of Greater Manchester is being given autonomy over its NHS. This is the exact opposite of top down.
And as far as BJO is concerned he should realise that the NHS under the tories is clearly having authority devolved as part of the reorganisation - first to commissioners/GPs and currently in a wider sense the whole of Greater Manchester is being given autonomy over its NHS. This is the exact opposite of top down.
What you think the creation of CCGs and NHS England was bottom up reorganisation.
Even Lansley wouldnt make that claim
Perhaps he is lieing
Oh and no plans to put up VAT?
Meantime what the blazers is going down with Labour's price in the markets? Talk about bear run.
'As can be seen above there’s now a 30-30 CON-LAB split . . ' should be 70-30.
Their tuition fee cut has unraveled as they cannot say how it will be funded. Their promised energy freeze policy has unraveled and has been rebranded as a cap - but they are denying any change.
Labour is trying to lie their way to power more than any party I can remember. It is totally shameless and too many in our broadcast media are not holding them to account for it.
Miliband and Balls cut their teeth alongside the Brown machine of Whelan and McBride - so this very dirty style of politics should come as no surprise.
Except that locally "Union" Street is known as "Onion" Street - it reduces people to tears.
There was an analysis done after 2010 which showed that both methods were inferior to simple UNS forecasting, although that wasn't brilliant either. IIRC, the simple favourite method outperformed the probabilistic model.
Truncating longshots at 20% is probably not ideal. In 2010, around 10% of such candidates won.
L-N ?
Oh and no plans to put up VAT?"
And there we see another Labour lie
Make up a policy that no-one is planning to implement - and use it as a scare tactic.
A Lie is a Lie is a Lie.
Back Your Odds Your Stake Your Profit
Harry Kane 4.79
Labour in all 4 programmes.
Cons in 3
Libs in 2
UKIP in 2.
Not that bad.
David Cameron gets what he wanted. Ed gets nothing.
Which one is better at negotiations?
I'd rather just keep saying what I've been saying for years. Tories most votes, most seats, majority possible.
There will be no Ed-gasm
This election will come down to whether people can close their eyes and imagine PM Miliband standing outside No 10.
I know a number of Labour loyalists who have been campaigning and standing for the party over many years who find that one a leap too far.
Folded like a cheap suit...
Oh, wait...
I really can't see how it will bring anything other than a chance for Farage to look like the big fish in a little pool. Which might be entertaining. Putting Ed in with the minnows - also fun
But serious, balanced political debate that will help voters? Doesn't sound like it to me.
"Balls apparently got the fourth highest first class honours from Oxford in Economics"
That's some achievement, given he didn't study Economics at Oxford! He studied (as all bloody politicians do) PPE, absolutely not the same thing.
However, the national parties can speak about English isssues because they will have a vote on them even though they don't affect their constituents.
So on Scottish health issues only SNP will have a view but on English health issues the Scottish and Welsh independence parties have a vote and thus will be expected to have a view.
How exciting...I can't wait :-) Isn't it basically empty chair without being an empty chair?
Dave was too scared to debate with Farage.
Is that the Farage who will be part of the 7 leader debate?
Or another one?
Furthermore given it will be Sturgeon representing the SNP it will be a politician who will not under any circumstances be sitting in the House of Commons. What sort of nonsense is that?
Or not.
For what my anecdote is worth, out and about among the good people of Torbay today. Sanders is undoubtedly well respected as a local MP, but the LibDem vote is soft - and time after time we are finding the fear of Ed Miliband Prime Minister top trumps the incumbency effect.
The key debate will be the 5-way, which has most potential to shift the polls given that there'll be two empty nets and also that Miliband is by far the most senior figure there and needs to appear as such.
It was a Labour spin tactic that has failed to produce that 'confrontation' - a meeting they never actually wanted to happen.
When I start telling you that due to this fat woman at the station who loves Labour and therefore Labour are about to win this leafy suburb off the Tories,then you can call me on that.
Two prime ministerial contenders debating for 90 minutes instead of producing jokes written by someone else for 3 minutes.What can be so hard about that?
This is the big banana skin for all leaders. Remember last thing Cameron got caught out by the guy in the street with the disabled kid. It is pretty unfair and it was revealed later that the guy was an activist, but too late damage done.
And of course Gordo and the infamous bigot-gate.
Of course I absolutely think politicians should be taking questions from the public, but I think that has bigger potential to blow up than all the stage managed debates. I wish we had a leaders QT every year, plus a chancellor one, etc. I think it would actually help QT and politics to have 4-5 "specials" every year where it is head to head minsters vs their shadows.
People want to see debates not a farce.
"Ed Miliband Prime Minster. Too many people in the country just don't want that."
Left wing voters don't care about the personality of the leader. Like all on the left it's the effort of the team that counts. Only Tories are interested in the tinsel and glitter of politics.
If you're waiting for the voters to decide that Ed's not up to it then you're going to be disappointed. Voters obsessed with that sort of trivia are already in the Cameron camp.
You reckon they fancy you or are thinking "I don't want to say it directly, but I'm gonna dodge this?" #safetyinnumbers
I continually underestimate this guy.
I have a feeling a good many people may have voted before the 30th April...
As even the BBC is forced to admit Greater Manchester will have control of a £6 billion NHS budget.
That is devolution; that is localism. Furthermore it is health and social care, which gives the opportunity for local needs to have a local organisation. Its not top down, but clearly the opportunity and structure for local initiatives has to come from the leadership who hold the budgets.
Rather than sticking your head in the sand what you should be arguing for is 'best practice' to be followed by other local spending and commissioning groups which build on success and do not repeat mistakes.
MIliband is the one who only recently was caught out standing on a box so he didn't look short in a photo with a tall candidate. He is as obsessed with image as any politician.
I would have thought the OFCOM major party status would have made it almost impossible for Clegg to be in there without Farage. How have they got around that?