1) Will UKIP win 10%+ of the votes ? 2) In what areas of the country will UKIP perform better and affect the outcome ? 3) Lib Dems will hold onto their safe seats, but what will happen to the 2010 Lib Dem votes, where they cannot win ? 4) Will SNP perform as well as the polls predict or will 2010 Labour supporters return to voting for the existing MP ? 5) Will the level of turnout to vote hurt Labour ?
1) I reckon 9 point something for UKIP. But it will be lumpy. I still don't see them breaking through on FPTP.
2) The Midlands is the fascinating one for me. The LibDems never really got into top gear in the Midlands, which has been largely a Lab/Con ding-dong for decades. UKIP getting in the mix here would be fascinating. And unpredictable. Recent press reports of Labour getting worried are obviously wholly at odds with the steady-as-a-rock reports from Broxtowe. We'll see.
3) define LibDem "safe seats". Current polling is heading downwards to 25 year lows, not improving.
4) The SNP have the easiest message to deliver of anyone in this election. "Keep Westminster true to the Pledge. For Scotland. Vote SNP" It appeals to those who voted Yes. It appeals to those who voted No, but...more devolution. Plus they have a huge team of beserkers to campaign for them. I see them topping 50% of the Scottish vote.
5) I don't see the registration drops hurting Labour particularly. I expect the biggest drops are in their safest seats.
1. Yes 2. South East/East coast, could affect outcomes adversely for Labour in the Midlands, Conservatives in SW. Just a finger in the air guess though. On a good night some gains from lab in South Yorks 3.Evaporate, stay at home, go green, go UKIP. Lib Dem truly safe seats are thin, maybe less than 10. 4. A modest swingback, SNP by 15 pts which will be good enough for 45 seats or so. 5. Maybe, a tiny bit but it'll be lost in roundings.
2. Won't strong UKIP in SW eat into LD support first? I always found it amusing the the SW LD were anti-EU (particularly CFP). That should *help* the Tories not hurt them
I'll judge Jack's ARSE on Bury North, I've got £20 on a Labour gain there at 1-2 and I'm confident I'll win a tenner. If I don't then I'll listen to his ARSE more in the future.
If you'd have paid closer attention to my ARSE over the past two General Elections here and across the pond then you'll have won rather substantially more than a tenner !!
Bury North - Lab Gain Pudsey - TCTC Broxtowe - Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Lab Gain Cambridge - TCTC Ipswich - Likely Lab Gain Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - TCTC Enfield North - Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
IMO
I think Cornwall North will be a fairly easy Con gain.
Want to put some money on Cambridge?
Its TCTC and LD are IMO too short on Betfair at 1.70.
LAB at 2.06 is about right i think
My Labour member friend in Cambridge is pretty pessimistic about their chances. He might be wrong, of course, but the Labour Party has been going backwards in local elections recently.
Their crazy decision to field a retread who finished 3rd behind the Cons in 2010 was "interesting".
There are reasons he finished 3rd - not all national.
Bury North - Lab Gain Pudsey - TCTC Broxtowe - Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Lab Gain Cambridge - TCTC Ipswich - Likely Lab Gain Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - TCTC Enfield North - Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
IMO
I think Cornwall North will be a fairly easy Con gain.
Want to put some money on Cambridge?
Its TCTC and LD are IMO too short on Betfair at 1.70.
LAB at 2.06 is about right i think
You are devaluing your BJesus with such folly.
Well i am confident that 3.15 on LAB most seats is far too high as regards BJESUS doesn't assume Cambridge goes red anymore but i think it will be a close run affair.
We will see who was right on EICIPM / EWNBPM in 50 days.
Wouldn't the average voter feel far more uncomfortable having the DUP in government than the SNP? I certaily would. Isn't it time Ed started asking for assurances about the Tories and the DUP?
Footage of Paisley and his tirades against 'papists and homosexuals' should go down really well with Cameron's caring sharing Britain.
I'll judge Jack's ARSE on Bury North, I've got £20 on a Labour gain there at 1-2 and I'm confident I'll win a tenner. If I don't then I'll listen to his ARSE more in the future.
If you'd have paid closer attention to my ARSE over the past two General Elections here and across the pond then you'll have won rather substantially more than a tenner !!
Obviously I've got more on a tenner on the election and if your ARSE comes to fruition I think I'll win money but I'm disagreeing with you on Bury North. This was Ashcroft polled back in October, there hasn't been enough swing since then to dislodge Labour's good position and all the evidence points to the NW being quite kind to them (Far more so than Yorkshire say).
Bury North - Lab Gain Pudsey - TCTC Broxtowe - Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Lab Gain Cambridge - TCTC Ipswich - Likely Lab Gain Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - TCTC Enfield North - Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
IMO
I think Cornwall North will be a fairly easy Con gain.
Want to put some money on Cambridge?
Its TCTC and LD are IMO too short on Betfair at 1.70.
LAB at 2.06 is about right i think
You are devaluing your BJesus with such folly.
Well i am confident that 3.15 on LAB most seats is far too high as regards BJESUS doesn't assume Cambridge goes red anymore but i think it will be a close run affair.
We will see who was right on EICIPM / EWNBPM in 50 days.
I just think the value is not on Cameron at 1.56
One seat where the micro may be more accurate than the macro.
Still no convergence between your BJ and the ARSE - someone is eating humble pie in 50 days
Bury North - Lab Gain Pudsey - TCTC Broxtowe - Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Lab Gain Cambridge - TCTC Ipswich - Likely Lab Gain Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - TCTC Enfield North - Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
IMO
I think Cornwall North will be a fairly easy Con gain.
Want to put some money on Cambridge?
Its TCTC and LD are IMO too short on Betfair at 1.70.
LAB at 2.06 is about right i think
You are devaluing your BJesus with such folly.
Well i am confident that 3.15 on LAB most seats is far too high as regards BJESUS doesn't assume Cambridge goes red anymore but i think it will be a close run affair.
We will see who was right on EICIPM / EWNBPM in 50 days.
I'll judge Jack's ARSE on Bury North, I've got £20 on a Labour gain there at 1-2 and I'm confident I'll win a tenner. If I don't then I'll listen to his ARSE more in the future.
If you'd have paid closer attention to my ARSE over the past two General Elections here and across the pond then you'll have won rather substantially more than a tenner !!
How much do you expect to stake on CON hold Bury North?
Wouldn't the average voter feel far more uncomfortable having the DUP in government than the SNP? I certaily would. Isn't it time Ed started asking for assurances about the Tories and the DUP?
Footage of Paisley and his tirades against 'papists and homosexuals' should go down really well with Cameron's caring sharing Britain.
Time for Ed to get on the front foot again.
You speak of yesteryear. While the DUP is certainly sternly evangelical, the bigotry of the past is largely buried. Unlike the SNP the DUP does not favour breaking up the country and is not obsessed with unilateral nuclear disarmament.
Wouldn't the average voter feel far more uncomfortable having the DUP in government than the SNP? I certaily would. Isn't it time Ed started asking for assurances about the Tories and the DUP?
Footage of Paisley and his tirades against 'papists and homosexuals' should go down really well with Cameron's caring sharing Britain.
Time for Ed to get on the front foot again.
Ed might well want, or need to do a deal with the DUP himself.
I'll judge Jack's ARSE on Bury North, I've got £20 on a Labour gain there at 1-2 and I'm confident I'll win a tenner. If I don't then I'll listen to his ARSE more in the future.
If you'd have paid closer attention to my ARSE over the past two General Elections here and across the pond then you'll have won rather substantially more than a tenner !!
Obviously I've got more on a tenner on the election and if your ARSE comes to fruition I think I'll win money but I'm disagreeing with you on Bury North. This was Ashcroft polled back in October, there hasn't been enough swing since then to dislodge Labour's good position and all the evidence points to the NW being quite kind to them (Far more so than Yorkshire say).
For casting doubt on my ARSE PBers have been cast into the very depth of despair aka ConHome.
However I'm of a generous disposition this morning and accordingly will just issue you with a yellow card and a warning as to your future conduct.
1) Will UKIP win 10%+ of the votes ? 2) In what areas of the country will UKIP perform better and affect the outcome ? 3) Lib Dems will hold onto their safe seats, but what will happen to the 2010 Lib Dem votes, where they cannot win ? 4) Will SNP perform as well as the polls predict or will 2010 Labour supporters return to voting for the existing MP ? 5) Will the level of turnout to vote hurt Labour ?
1) I reckon 9 point something for UKIP. But it will be lumpy. I still don't see them breaking through on FPTP.
2) The Midlands is the fascinating one for me. The LibDems never really got into top gear in the Midlands, which has been largely a Lab/Con ding-dong for decades. UKIP getting in the mix here would be fascinating. And unpredictable. Recent press reports of Labour getting worried are obviously wholly at odds with the steady-as-a-rock reports from Broxtowe. We'll see.
3) define LibDem "safe seats". Current polling is heading downwards to 25 year lows, not improving.
4) The SNP have the easiest message to deliver of anyone in this election. "Keep Westminster true to the Pledge. For Scotland. Vote SNP" It appeals to those who voted Yes. It appeals to those who voted No, but...more devolution. Plus they have a huge team of beserkers to campaign for them. I see them topping 50% of the Scottish vote.
5) I don't see the registration drops hurting Labour particularly. I expect the biggest drops are in their safest seats.
1. Yes 2. South East/East coast, could affect outcomes adversely for Labour in the Midlands, Conservatives in SW. Just a finger in the air guess though. On a good night some gains from lab in South Yorks 3.Evaporate, stay at home, go green, go UKIP. Lib Dem truly safe seats are thin, maybe less than 10. 4. A modest swingback, SNP by 15 pts which will be good enough for 45 seats or so. 5. Maybe, a tiny bit but it'll be lost in roundings.
2. Won't strong UKIP in SW eat into LD support first? I always found it amusing the the SW LD were anti-EU (particularly CFP). That should *help* the Tories not hurt them
Yes. A lot of the Libdem vote in SW is in my opinion a revolt against the tories becoming too detached and remote and will decamp to the kippers.
I am watching out for some major infrastructure announcements tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised to see an announcement of Waterloo - Exeter redoubling and 25kV electrification (along with new capacity enhancing flyovers at Woking and Basingstoke) and Exeter - Okehampton - Plymouth reopening and Electrification to create a new Intercity route with hourly trains taking about 1 3/4 hours to Exeter and 2 1/2 hours to Plymouth.
Bury North - Lab Gain Pudsey - TCTC Broxtowe - Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Lab Gain Cambridge - TCTC Ipswich - Likely Lab Gain Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - TCTC Enfield North - Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
IMO
I think Cornwall North will be a fairly easy Con gain.
Want to put some money on Cambridge?
Its TCTC and LD are IMO too short on Betfair at 1.70.
LAB at 2.06 is about right i think
You are devaluing your BJesus with such folly.
Well i am confident that 3.15 on LAB most seats is far too high as regards BJESUS doesn't assume Cambridge goes red anymore but i think it will be a close run affair.
We will see who was right on EICIPM / EWNBPM in 50 days.
I just think the value is not on Cameron at 1.56
One seat where the micro may be more accurate than the macro.
Still no convergence between your BJ and the ARSE - someone is eating humble pie in 50 days
Correct you think i am wrong presumably but do you really think CON hold with a greater than 500 majority in Bury North is credible?
"With the Budget just 48 hours away, the North Sea oil and gas industry is eagerly awaiting details of major tax cuts I am told are being prepared by the Treasury.
At the moment, the sector pays high levels of tax compared to other industries. It pays a corporation tax rate of 30% and an additional "supplementary tax" of 32%. For older fields, the rate can rise as high as 80%, according to Mike Tholen, economics director at Oil and Gas UK, the main industry body.
In the past, the North Sea has always been considered something of a cash cow, there to be milked by governments of all political hues. But the collapsing oil price has meant that the economics of doing business in the sector have changed radically.
As the Greek proverb says, when milking a cow be careful not to pull the udders off.
The oil industry argues that the major tax rises the government put in place in 2011 - when the oil price averaged above $111 a barrel (it's now around $55) - should now be reversed.
That would mean bringing the supplementary tax rate down to 20%. The government has already agreed that it should be reduced from 32% to 30%.
And now it looks clear that the Treasury is going to go a lot further. And certainly the industry thinks a 10% tax cut is not out of the question."
Rather more immediately to the point, especially at a time when indyref is off the menu (except in the minds of Labour and the Tories, and the xenophobic rants of London newspapers, censored from their Scottish editions), it seriously undermines the Unionist argument on 'pooling and sharing'. If this is what happens before and after a No vote ...
Wouldn't the average voter feel far more uncomfortable having the DUP in government than the SNP? I certaily would. Isn't it time Ed started asking for assurances about the Tories and the DUP?
Footage of Paisley and his tirades against 'papists and homosexuals' should go down really well with Cameron's caring sharing Britain.
Time for Ed to get on the front foot again.
How easily you forget (repress?) Gordon Brown
Gordon Brown managed to fight off a Labour rebellion on the controversial 42-day anti-terror legislation by a majority of just nine votes. 37 Labour MPs voted against the government. All nine DUP MPs voted with the government, prompting allegations that the DUP had engaged in political horse-trading.
Bury North - Lab Gain Pudsey - TCTC Broxtowe - Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Lab Gain Cambridge - TCTC Ipswich - Likely Lab Gain Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - TCTC Enfield North - Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
IMO
I think Cornwall North will be a fairly easy Con gain.
Want to put some money on Cambridge?
Its TCTC and LD are IMO too short on Betfair at 1.70.
LAB at 2.06 is about right i think
You are devaluing your BJesus with such folly.
Well i am confident that 3.15 on LAB most seats is far too high as regards BJESUS doesn't assume Cambridge goes red anymore but i think it will be a close run affair.
We will see who was right on EICIPM / EWNBPM in 50 days.
I just think the value is not on Cameron at 1.56
One seat where the micro may be more accurate than the macro.
Still no convergence between your BJ and the ARSE - someone is eating humble pie in 50 days
We have no truck with humble pie at Auchentennach fine comestibles.
Wouldn't the average voter feel far more uncomfortable having the DUP in government than the SNP? I certaily would. Isn't it time Ed started asking for assurances about the Tories and the DUP?
Footage of Paisley and his tirades against 'papists and homosexuals' should go down really well with Cameron's caring sharing Britain.
Time for Ed to get on the front foot again.
ROFL
sorry Roger isn't Labour now the nun bashing party ?
Surely Tristam\Julian\Tarquin\Quentin's rant against Catholic education was to suck up to the DUP ?
Wouldn't the average voter feel far more uncomfortable having the DUP in government than the SNP? I certaily would. Isn't it time Ed started asking for assurances about the Tories and the DUP?
Footage of Paisley and his tirades against 'papists and homosexuals' should go down really well with Cameron's caring sharing Britain.
Time for Ed to get on the front foot again.
If the DUP were to trying to impose its views on RUK, you'd be right. But, the DUP is only interested in Northern Ireland. They can deal as easily with Labour as the Conservatives.
The SNP, OTOH, seems to want a major role in running RUK, at the same time as wanting greater autonomy for Scotland, and independence. Polling shows that is not popular with RUK voters.
I'll judge Jack's ARSE on Bury North, I've got £20 on a Labour gain there at 1-2 and I'm confident I'll win a tenner. If I don't then I'll listen to his ARSE more in the future.
If you'd have paid closer attention to my ARSE over the past two General Elections here and across the pond then you'll have won rather substantially more than a tenner !!
How much do you expect to stake on CON hold Bury North?
Not a brass farthing.
Bury North isn't a seat I have wagered on presently and with some exceptions the liquidity in many constituency markets is too small to interest me.
I'll judge Jack's ARSE on Bury North, I've got £20 on a Labour gain there at 1-2 and I'm confident I'll win a tenner. If I don't then I'll listen to his ARSE more in the future.
If you'd have paid closer attention to my ARSE over the past two General Elections here and across the pond then you'll have won rather substantially more than a tenner !!
How much do you expect to stake on CON hold Bury North?
On the 2 Midlands seats I agree with Jack, on Bury North again probably too close to call. An interesting seat, UKIP are likely to hit Labour harder in a seat such as this but it will be harder generally for the Conservatives in the North West.
I would edge towards the Conservatives in Bury North but it is one of maybe 20 that could go either way.
I predict though that Jack's overall summation will be closer to the final result than yours.
Until it deals with its lack of transparancy I think it should be cast into a bottomless pit
I know you are a Labour supporter, but why don't you come up with an alternative rather than just carping from the sidelines?
We can then decide, May 8, who was more accurate
Carping from the sidelines is what lefties do.
No solutions for the economy, No solutions for jobs, No solutions for productivity, No solutions for public spending, No solutions for affordable welfare, No solutions for getting people off benefits... just carping from the sidelines.
Bury North - Lab Gain Pudsey - TCTC Broxtowe - Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Lab Gain Cambridge - TCTC Ipswich - Likely Lab Gain Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - TCTC Enfield North - Lab Gain Cornwall North - TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
IMO
I think Cornwall North will be a fairly easy Con gain.
Want to put some money on Cambridge?
Its TCTC and LD are IMO too short on Betfair at 1.70.
LAB at 2.06 is about right i think
You are devaluing your BJesus with such folly.
Well i am confident that 3.15 on LAB most seats is far too high as regards BJESUS doesn't assume Cambridge goes red anymore but i think it will be a close run affair.
We will see who was right on EICIPM / EWNBPM in 50 days.
I just think the value is not on Cameron at 1.56
One seat where the micro may be more accurate than the macro.
Still no convergence between your BJ and the ARSE - someone is eating humble pie in 50 days
Correct you think i am wrong presumably but do you really think CON hold with a greater than 500 majority in Bury North is credible?
No idea about Bury North - but I'm bawdeep on Huppert (LD) in Cambridge (my constituency).
I wonder whether the time hasn't arrived for Labour to do some negative campaigning of their own. Perhaps a re-run of Peter Blake's award winning Sgt Pepper cover. "Dave's Mates". Charlie and Rebekkah Liz Murdoch Jeremy Clarkson Anthony Bamford Rachel Whetstone Andy Coulson Paul Dacre Quentin Letts.....and I haven't even had to start thinking yet.
Looking back at Ashcroft's marginal polling in October, and then applying a shift of 3-4% to the Tories, Bury North still looks good for Labour. Worcester, Chester, and Wirral West shift back into the Conservative column.
Croydon Central still has a small Labour lead, but I don't believe UKIP will poll 19% there, on the day.
watching the sunnation, day in the life of the PM. Anyone else surprised that the cabinet dont get to the feet when the PM enters a official cabinet meeting?
Looking back at Ashcroft's marginal polling in October, and then applying a shift of 3-4% to the Tories, Bury North still looks good for Labour. Worcester, Chester, and Wirral West shift back into the Conservative column.
Croydon Central still has a small Labour lead, but I don't believe UKIP will poll 19% there, on the day.
Mcveigh is too close to call I reckon. If I had to place a bet at gunpoint at evens it'd be Labour. Just.
"Maybe this election will surprise and go down like 1992, as a polling disaster. That year all the polls pointed to a hung parliament but John Major’s Tories won a clear cut victory."
I think this is true, and that majority government, by either party, may be more likely than the betting currently indicates.
A lot depends on the 2010 Lib Dem and the 2015 UKIP voters in the Lab/Con marginals. Will there be more Coalition or Red Liberals? Are UKIP voters mostly ex-Labour WWC, or ex-Tory blazers?
I wonder whether the time hasn't arrived for Labour to do some negative campaigning of their own. Perhaps a re-run of Peter Blake's award winning Sgt Pepper cover. "Dave's Mates". Charlie and Rebekkah Liz Murdoch Jeremy Clarkson Anthony Bamford Rachel Whetstone Andy Coulson Paul Dacre Quentin Letts.....and I haven't even had to start thinking yet.
I wonder whether the time hasn't arrived for Labour to do some negative campaigning of their own. Perhaps a re-run of Peter Blake's award winning Sgt Pepper cover. "Dave's Mates". Charlie and Rebekkah Liz Murdoch Jeremy Clarkson Anthony Bamford Rachel Whetstone Andy Coulson Paul Dacre Quentin Letts.....and I haven't even had to start thinking yet.
I was always taught sledging the opposition is pointless as it damages your industry and ultimately yourself. So saying nasty Tories do X simply makes voters roll their eyes and say "yeah right and are you tell me your lot don't do it too ?"
I suspect the negative Campbell and Mandelson spin is one of the reasons politicians of all shades are now wandering around in the gutter. Labour didn't just tarnish the Tories ultimately they tarnished themselves and dragged the whole industry down.
It will be a long hard slog to regain previous standing.
"I know you are a Labour supporter, but why don't you come up with an alternative rather than just carping from the sidelines? We can then decide, May 8, who was more accurate "
I Know that Jack means well but I can't help worrying for all the nice Tory posters on here. Jack's ARSE gives them something to cling to when everything else looks like barren ocean.
I just cant bear the thought of their disappointment turning to despair when it turns out to be a massive chimera
Well, the LibDems have just had two polls showing them with their lowest vote share in 25 years. It's not exactly hard to justify downgrading their prospects this week....
Isn’t LibDemmery in the deep SW the result of tradition; working class & Chapel = Lib, middle/upper class & Church = Tory? Long tradition of, perhaps not radicalism as such, but anti-establishment. I don’t recall any of the switch-over Lib > Lab that took place in, for example, Wales or Lancashire.
I wonder whether the time hasn't arrived for Labour to do some negative campaigning of their own. Perhaps a re-run of Peter Blake's award winning Sgt Pepper cover. "Dave's Mates". Charlie and Rebekkah Liz Murdoch Jeremy Clarkson Anthony Bamford Rachel Whetstone Andy Coulson Paul Dacre Quentin Letts.....and I haven't even had to start thinking yet.
"I know you are a Labour supporter, but why don't you come up with an alternative rather than just carping from the sidelines? We can then decide, May 8, who was more accurate "
I Know that Jack means well but I can't help worrying for all the nice Tory posters on here. Jack's ARSE gives them something to cling to when everything else looks like barren ocean.
I just cant bear the thought of their disappointment turning to despair when it turns out to be a massive chimera
A stunning non-endorsement for my ARSE from @Roger.
There is no better feeling on PB than to be given the black spot by Rogerdamus. Life in the fast lane of political punting rarely gets any better than this.
I wonder whether the time hasn't arrived for Labour to do some negative campaigning of their own. Perhaps a re-run of Peter Blake's award winning Sgt Pepper cover. "Dave's Mates". Charlie and Rebekkah Liz Murdoch Jeremy Clarkson Anthony Bamford Rachel Whetstone Andy Coulson Paul Dacre Quentin Letts.....and I haven't even had to start thinking yet.
Anthony Bamford: you mean attack the man who has been running his family business for forty years, and has made it into a true manufacturing success story?
Labour really are not interested in manufacturing, are they?
But will Lord A have named candidates? .... probably not.
I reckon if we can name the candidate easily on here then the locals might know who it is. Alot of them are completely anonymous.
I couldn't name the MP of where I'm sitting right now for instance.
Think it's Clive Betts. Labour will be weighing the vote here, UKIP a very very distant second. Lib Dems to lose deposit methinks.
If constituency polling in the UK has a flaw it's the almost complete failure to name candidates, the more so as polling day looms. The "your constituency" question mitigates the problem but it's still a weakness.
Polls in the US invariably name candidates for Congress and many state wide elections and in a significant number of UK HoC seats this would be appropriate.
"You speak of yesteryear. While the DUP is certainly sternly evangelical, the bigotry of the past is largely buried. Unlike the SNP the DUP does not favour breaking up the country and is not obsessed with unilateral nuclear disarmament."
I discovered recently that Manchester was the first nuclear free zone in the UK. A policy brought in by a Labour council in 1980 and one which for 35 years has been 100% successful. I think we have nothing to fear from the SNP on that score
"I know you are a Labour supporter, but why don't you come up with an alternative rather than just carping from the sidelines? We can then decide, May 8, who was more accurate "
I Know that Jack means well but I can't help worrying for all the nice Tory posters on here. Jack's ARSE gives them something to cling to when everything else looks like barren ocean.
I just cant bear the thought of their disappointment turning to despair when it turns out to be a massive chimera
In 2010 Jack was one of the few who was adamant against a Conservative majority as anticipated by many, much to the chagrin of those nice posters to whom you refer. While his methodology is not disclosed Jack does nonetheless have a track record.
"You speak of yesteryear. While the DUP is certainly sternly evangelical, the bigotry of the past is largely buried. Unlike the SNP the DUP does not favour breaking up the country and is not obsessed with unilateral nuclear disarmament."
I discovered recently that Manchester was the first nuclear free zone in the UK. A policy brought in by a Labour council in 1980 and one which for 35 years has been 100% successful. I think we have nothing to fear from the SNP on that score
I'd point out that Manchester improved brilliantly after the IRA bombed it, and they redeveloped the place.
I reckon a nuclear bomb hitting Manchester in the 80s or early 90s would have helped improve the progress.
"You speak of yesteryear. While the DUP is certainly sternly evangelical, the bigotry of the past is largely buried. Unlike the SNP the DUP does not favour breaking up the country and is not obsessed with unilateral nuclear disarmament."
I discovered recently that Manchester was the first nuclear free zone in the UK. A policy brought in by a Labour council in 1980 and one which for 35 years has been 100% successful. I think we have nothing to fear from the SNP on that score
I lived in Manchester in the early 80s. I never for one moment imagined a Russian ICBM would stop in mid flight because it detected a "Nuclear free " sign at the city limits
But will Lord A have named candidates? .... probably not.
I reckon if we can name the candidate easily on here then the locals might know who it is. Alot of them are completely anonymous.
I couldn't name the MP of where I'm sitting right now for instance.
Think it's Clive Betts. Labour will be weighing the vote here, UKIP a very very distant second. Lib Dems to lose deposit methinks.
If constituency polling in the UK has a flaw it's the almost complete failure to name candidates, the more so as polling day looms. The "your constituency" question mitigates the problem but it's still a weakness.
Polls in the US invariably name candidates for Congress and many state wide elections and in a significant number of UK HoC seats this would be appropriate.
I've tried to bear names in mind in my betting, "Clegg", "Kennedy", "Farage", "(Douglas) Alexander", "Burt", "Sanders", "Palmer","Huppert" are some where I've considered it as a factor. The one "name" who is going though is Danny Alexander. I don't care how big a name you are it is NOT saving you from a 29 pt deficit.
"You speak of yesteryear. While the DUP is certainly sternly evangelical, the bigotry of the past is largely buried. Unlike the SNP the DUP does not favour breaking up the country and is not obsessed with unilateral nuclear disarmament."
I discovered recently that Manchester was the first nuclear free zone in the UK. A policy brought in by a Labour council in 1980 and one which for 35 years has been 100% successful. I think we have nothing to fear from the SNP on that score
That would have been a comfort when a 800kt warhead landed on those nasty capitalists in Trafford and incinerated the whole of central Manchester in passing
1) Will UKIP win 10%+ of the votes ? 2) In what areas of the country will UKIP perform better and affect the outcome ? 3) Lib Dems will hold onto their safe seats, but what will happen to the 2010 Lib Dem votes, where they cannot win ? 4) Will SNP perform as well as the polls predict or will 2010 Labour supporters return to voting for the existing MP ? 5) Will the level of turnout to vote hurt Labour ?
1) I reckon 9 point something for UKIP. But it will be lumpy. I still don't see them breaking through on FPTP.
2) The Midlands is the fascinating one for me. The LibDems never really got into top gear in the Midlands, which has been largely a Lab/Con ding-dong for decades. UKIP getting in the mix here would be fascinating. And unpredictable. Recent press reports of Labour getting worried are obviously wholly at odds with the steady-as-a-rock reports from Broxtowe. We'll see.
3) define LibDem "safe seats". Current polling is heading downwards to 25 year lows, not improving.
4) The SNP have the easiest message to deliver of anyone in this election. "Keep Westminster true to the Pledge. For Scotland. Vote SNP" It appeals to those who voted Yes. It appeals to those who voted No, but...more devolution. Plus they have a huge team of beserkers to campaign for them. I see them topping 50% of the Scottish vote.
5) I don't see the registration drops hurting Labour particularly. I expect the biggest drops are in their safest seats.
Lib Dem safe seats = where they have majorities of 5000+.
The Midlands is interesting, but parts of Birmingham are very different to Shropshire or other rural areas. I think Labour will do quite well in many seats.
SNP will put some people off, once they start talking about their policies.
No they won't , they are talking Labour policies to soon to be ex Labour voters, whilst Labour have gone Tory where as we know , there are more Panda's and Ed Kitchens than MP's.
But will Lord A have named candidates? .... probably not.
I reckon if we can name the candidate easily on here then the locals might know who it is. Alot of them are completely anonymous.
I couldn't name the MP of where I'm sitting right now for instance.
Think it's Clive Betts. Labour will be weighing the vote here, UKIP a very very distant second. Lib Dems to lose deposit methinks.
If constituency polling in the UK has a flaw it's the almost complete failure to name candidates, the more so as polling day looms. The "your constituency" question mitigates the problem but it's still a weakness.
Polls in the US invariably name candidates for Congress and many state wide elections and in a significant number of UK HoC seats this would be appropriate.
I've tried to bear names in mind in my betting, "Clegg", "Kennedy", "Farage", "(Douglas) Alexander", "Burt", "Sanders", "Palmer","Huppert" are some where I've considered it as a factor. The one "name" who is going though is Danny Alexander. I don't care how big a name you are it is NOT saving you from a 29 pt deficit.
Clegg is the only major politician where I'd reckon his vote would fall if his name was mentioned.
@Indigo Keep the bombs, but do away with the launch systems. If you detonate enough of them about 40 feet (approximately) underground, the resulting fall out would make the rest of the world wish you had dropped them on their heads instead. Welcome to the insanity of MAD.
Yes. A lot of the Libdem vote in SW is in my opinion a revolt against the tories becoming too detached and remote and will decamp to the kippers.
Think you are being harsh on the Tories.
There was always a Celtic Fringe - the Liberals were very strong there (in fact, much of the Tory strength in the SW comes from the old National Liberal party). The LibDems also squeezed Labour very effectively and therefore consolidated the not-Tory vote.
It strikes me that the not-Tory vote will go Green (in the old National Liberal territories) or UKIP (in the Liberal areas).
The results of TB's: "Education, Education, Education" - Low Skills and Productivity.
Schoolchildren in the valleys have the lowest reading and numeracy levels in Wales, the BBC has found.
Pupils from schools in Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Torfaen scored the lowest results in last year's English language reading and numeracy tests.
It is the second year children aged between seven and 14 have been tested......
According to the 2010 National Survey of Adult Skills in Wales, more than 900,000 people in Wales - around half the adult population - have maths skills equivalent to primary school pupils aged between nine and 11......
According to latest figures, more than 15% of adults in Blaenau Gwent left school without any qualifications, almost twice the British average.
Is it possible that genetic factors are now influencing the results of school education in the areas of Wales you mention? If the people with gumption and talent have upped and left in search of a better future then those that remain behind are going to be well to the left on the bell-curve. It is not possible to make a silk purse out of sow's ear.
"I suspect the negative Campbell and Mandelson spin is one of the reasons politicians of all shades are now wandering around in the gutter. Labour didn't just tarnish the Tories ultimately they tarnished themselves and dragged the whole industry down."
Interesting you should say that. The evidence of last night's poll from MORI is to the contrary.
52% like the Labour brand whereas only 30 odd like the Tory one. I wonder whether some odium is worse than others or maybe some brands have the strength to withstand a few bad apples?
Or perhaps to really trash a brand you need something special like 'A Thather'? Maybe a Mandelson or a Campbell just don't cut it?
Something for future politics students to think about...
Elderly people are a little less likely to be online and so a particular group of people who are more lilely to vote Conservative and UKIP are excluded from online voting and no adjustment for age can compensate for the missing characteristics.
Also with telephone polling, do we know the proportion of mobile telephones called versus household telephones?
In the same way that elderly people are a little less likely to be online so they are a little more likely to have a household telephone number than a mobile number, so the result will be skewed again.
I've backed Dougie. But just to take out any potential loss on Ms Black because I'm a lily livered bettor
So have I based on the UKIP chap's age and the fall in UKIP's vote since he was selected.
I've also asked a few of the pollsters to ask a supplementary question along the lines of does the youth of a candidate make your more or less likely to vote for them.
@Indigo Keep the bombs, but do away with the launch systems. If you detonate enough of them about 40 feet (approximately) underground, the resulting fall out would make the rest of the world wish you had dropped them on their heads instead. Welcome to the insanity of MAD.
Oh I quite agree, but its like democracy, the only thing worse than it, is not having it. The real insanity is thinking that declaring a city as a nuclear free zone is any more than fatuous posturing.
Mike asked why the difference phone and online polls over how the tories are doing. I think the answer is Older people who are more likely to vote tory are less likely to be online and are more accessible to pollsters over the phone whereas younger people who are less likely to vote tory, dont always have a landline and are more likely to be online.
I've backed Dougie. But just to take out any potential loss on Ms Black because I'm a lily livered bettor
So have I based on the UKIP chap's age and the fall in UKIP's vote since he was selected.
I've also asked a few of the pollsters to ask a supplementary question along the lines of does the youth of a candidate make your more or less likely to vote for them.
I've folded like a cheap suit in Boston I'm afraid.
Another example of why the Labour title inflation was a bad idea. "Judge" should be restricted to the High Court and above.
BTW, who watches porn at work? I can't think of a less conducive environment?
Seems to be plenty of that sort of stupidity around today, like this one from the Mail. Not ideal if shown to be true, and from his .sch.uk (i.e professional) email account as well, no danger of that causing a problem!
Comments
There are reasons he finished 3rd - not all national.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1268389/Labour-candidate-performing-Nazi-salute-Cambridge-University-debate.html
We will see who was right on EICIPM / EWNBPM in 50 days.
I just think the value is not on Cameron at 1.56
Footage of Paisley and his tirades against 'papists and homosexuals' should go down really well with Cameron's caring sharing Britain.
Time for Ed to get on the front foot again.
Still no convergence between your BJ and the ARSE - someone is eating humble pie in 50 days
However I'm of a generous disposition this morning and accordingly will just issue you with a yellow card and a warning as to your future conduct.
I am watching out for some major infrastructure announcements tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised to see an announcement of Waterloo - Exeter redoubling and 25kV electrification (along with new capacity enhancing flyovers at Woking and Basingstoke) and Exeter - Okehampton - Plymouth reopening and Electrification to create a new Intercity route with hourly trains taking about 1 3/4 hours to Exeter and 2 1/2 hours to Plymouth.
Gordon Brown managed to fight off a Labour rebellion on the controversial 42-day anti-terror legislation by a majority of just nine votes. 37 Labour MPs voted against the government. All nine DUP MPs voted with the government, prompting allegations that the DUP had engaged in political horse-trading.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/legacy/ni/2008/06/dup_rescues_gordon_brown.html
We can then decide, May 8, who was more accurate
sorry Roger isn't Labour now the nun bashing party ?
Surely Tristam\Julian\Tarquin\Quentin's rant against Catholic education was to suck up to the DUP ?
The SNP, OTOH, seems to want a major role in running RUK, at the same time as wanting greater autonomy for Scotland, and independence. Polling shows that is not popular with RUK voters.
Bury North isn't a seat I have wagered on presently and with some exceptions the liquidity in many constituency markets is too small to interest me.
I would edge towards the Conservatives in Bury North but it is one of maybe 20 that could go either way.
I predict though that Jack's overall summation will be closer to the final result than yours.
No solutions for the economy, No solutions for jobs, No solutions for productivity, No solutions for public spending, No solutions for affordable welfare, No solutions for getting people off benefits... just carping from the sidelines.
http://news.sky.com/story/1446671/three-judges-fired-for-watching-porn-at-work
He has a fine reputation on PB for political predictions that almost equals that of Ed Balls economic forecasting.
PBers have long looked upon @Roger as something of a national treasure. We must endeavour to keep it that way.
http://www.nauert.com/pictures/ransgt.jpg
Croydon Central still has a small Labour lead, but I don't believe UKIP will poll 19% there, on the day.
All we need is Southam's predictions, and we can bet accordingly.
I think this is true, and that majority government, by either party, may be more likely than the betting currently indicates.
A lot depends on the 2010 Lib Dem and the 2015 UKIP voters in the Lab/Con marginals. Will there be more Coalition or Red Liberals? Are UKIP voters mostly ex-Labour WWC, or ex-Tory blazers?
This is still wide open.
I was always taught sledging the opposition is pointless as it damages your industry and ultimately yourself. So saying nasty Tories do X simply makes voters roll their eyes and say "yeah right and are you tell me your lot don't do it too ?"
I suspect the negative Campbell and Mandelson spin is one of the reasons politicians of all shades are now wandering around in the gutter. Labour didn't just tarnish the Tories ultimately they tarnished themselves and dragged the whole industry down.
It will be a long hard slog to regain previous standing.
"I know you are a Labour supporter, but why don't you come up with an alternative rather than just carping from the sidelines? We can then decide, May 8, who was more accurate "
I Know that Jack means well but I can't help worrying for all the nice Tory posters on here. Jack's ARSE gives them something to cling to when everything else looks like barren ocean.
I just cant bear the thought of their disappointment turning to despair when it turns out to be a massive chimera
I couldn't name the MP of where I'm sitting right now for instance.
Think it's Clive Betts. Labour will be weighing the vote here, UKIP a very very distant second. Lib Dems to lose deposit methinks.
Long tradition of, perhaps not radicalism as such, but anti-establishment.
I don’t recall any of the switch-over Lib > Lab that took place in, for example, Wales or Lancashire.
http://goo.gl/wc87nn
There is no better feeling on PB than to be given the black spot by Rogerdamus. Life in the fast lane of political punting rarely gets any better than this.
Labour really are not interested in manufacturing, are they?
@JamieRoss7: Mac's cartoon on Labour and the SNP today. http://t.co/rGBj973n5c http://t.co/4pCiaXHO9k
Polls in the US invariably name candidates for Congress and many state wide elections and in a significant number of UK HoC seats this would be appropriate.
"You speak of yesteryear. While the DUP is certainly sternly evangelical, the bigotry of the past is largely buried. Unlike the SNP the DUP does not favour breaking up the country and is not obsessed with unilateral nuclear disarmament."
I discovered recently that Manchester was the first nuclear free zone in the UK. A policy brought in by a Labour council in 1980 and one which for 35 years has been 100% successful. I think we have nothing to fear from the SNP on that score
In 2010 Jack was one of the few who was adamant against a Conservative majority as anticipated by many, much to the chagrin of those nice posters to whom you refer. While his methodology is not disclosed Jack does nonetheless have a track record.
I reckon a nuclear bomb hitting Manchester in the 80s or early 90s would have helped improve the progress.
#pointlessgestures
Good luck
The Yorkshire Post’s manifesto urges politicians to unite to secure region’s future
A Minister for Yorkshire to act as a voice for the region
Give England and Scotland equal say on devolution
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/community/time-for-mps-to-start-flying-the-flag-for-god-s-own-county-1-7158261
Facebook partly to blame for Labour woes in Scotland, says Douglas Alexander
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11476979/Facebook-partly-to-blame-for-Labour-woes-in-Scotland-says-Douglas-Alexander.html
@TelePolitics: Facebook partly to blame for Labour woes in Scotland, says Douglas Alexander http://t.co/JIBQnHYKJt
That would be an extraordinary result from this point.
Which is why it isn't going to happen.
Just saying.
Plus I'd improve the gaiety of the nation.
Keep the bombs, but do away with the launch systems.
If you detonate enough of them about 40 feet (approximately) underground, the resulting fall out would make the rest of the world wish you had dropped them on their heads instead.
Welcome to the insanity of MAD.
There was always a Celtic Fringe - the Liberals were very strong there (in fact, much of the Tory strength in the SW comes from the old National Liberal party). The LibDems also squeezed Labour very effectively and therefore consolidated the not-Tory vote.
It strikes me that the not-Tory vote will go Green (in the old National Liberal territories) or UKIP (in the Liberal areas).
"I suspect the negative Campbell and Mandelson spin is one of the reasons politicians of all shades are now wandering around in the gutter. Labour didn't just tarnish the Tories ultimately they tarnished themselves and dragged the whole industry down."
Interesting you should say that. The evidence of last night's poll from MORI is to the contrary.
52% like the Labour brand whereas only 30 odd like the Tory one. I wonder whether some odium is worse than others or maybe some brands have the strength to withstand a few bad apples?
Or perhaps to really trash a brand you need something special like 'A Thather'? Maybe a Mandelson or a Campbell just don't cut it?
Something for future politics students to think about...
Your ARSE is an anus horrilibus.
Also with telephone polling, do we know the proportion of mobile telephones called versus household telephones?
In the same way that elderly people are a little less likely to be online so they are a little more likely to have a household telephone number than a mobile number, so the result will be skewed again.
Labour's position in Scotland is "bad" & "They have a fight on their hands"
I've also asked a few of the pollsters to ask a supplementary question along the lines of does the youth of a candidate make your more or less likely to vote for them.
BTW, who watches porn at work? I can't think of a less conducive environment?
LOL!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/5422668/Chilli-hot-stuff-immigration-judge-paid-nearly-300000-for-sitting-at-home.html
Are you comparing me to yon alcoholic faggot, "Bonnie Prince Charlie"?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2998567/Married-headteacher-caught-sending-sex-text-messages-prostitute-saying-wanted-wear-schoolgirl-uniform-spanked-threesome.html