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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s all very tight but the Tories seem to be doing better
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It’s all very tight but the Tories seem to be doing better with the phone pollsters LAB with the online ones
At the moment this close to an election with the numbers so tight it’s interesting to divide the pollsters by methodology to see if there’s a pattern
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I'll get my coat.
http://bet2015.co.uk/
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/03/15/fewer-voters-have-made-up-their-mind-on-how-to-vote-than-in-the-past/
ie only 48% of voters have made their mind up compared with 81% in 1992, makes the current polls all a bit irrelevant. This election is a pollsters nightmare
Unless the incumbents do something stupid, my guess is that a large chunk of the 52% will stick with the devil they know. Miliband has had five years to convince them he is a good alternative and if he hasn't yet, I don't think he will now.
It was 1997 when I first got involved (coincidentally the same year as Mike, and for much the same reason.) The spread firms were just getting going and I remember sticking a nervous fiver per point on Labour. It won 250 quid, so you can take it that the bookies generally underestimated the scale of Blair's win.
It was much easier to make money on political betting back then.
However, as you say, it was much less sophisticated and much less transparent. We created that particular spread market (amongst FX dealers), calling each other up and dealing before, around 48 hours later, City Index started quoting. Those were the days!
150 minutes
The divide between telephone polling companies and online panels seems more consistent. The telephone polls have had 9 Conservative leads, 5 Labour leads, and 2 ties since the start of the year. Online panels (Yougov excepted) mostly put Labour ahead. UKIP and Labour tend to get lower scores by telephone.
Back low turnout.
At that, I'd give up and turn to drink - and not vote.
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-trolls-headquarters-media-internet-insider-account/26904157.html
A low turnout probably favours the Tories, who are demographically more likely to vote.
http://nottspolitics.org/2015/03/10/is-it-time-to-start-believing-in-an-snp-landslide/
Not all of them are online, but they almost always answer the phone.
One of the reasons I added “caller identification” was that I was fed up with spurious opinion polls which were in fact thinly disguised efforts to determine whether I was likely to be a customer for double glazing, solar panels or whatever.
Mostly they are little more than wishful thinking and some are plainly daft. Low turnout however definitely has some merit.
Two things that might be contra-indicators relate to the clean up of the registers. In 2010 there were far more people on the registers who were not entitled to vote or who were on the register twice for perfectly legitimate reasons. So we are not directly comparing like with like. Furthermore the register in 2010 would have contained a much greater proportion of young people (who were unlikely to vote) than 2015. In fact I suspect quite a large % of those less inclined to vote will have disappeared from the register.
Because of this I suspect that turnout may well match 2010 even if the underlying reality is lower participation in this wonderful democracy thing.
That said, I still think telephone polling is more likely to be in the right ball park than internet polls with self identifying and classifying "volunteers" paid a pittance for their time. I cannot help being reminded of self certified mortgages in relation to these panels. That went well.
I think the biggest effect, potentially, is to underestimate new boys on the block such as UKIP. But are they likely to do well amongst the don't knows rather than the angry? Its hard to say, isn't it?
Further, it's been confirmed by the relevant bodies that anyone registered for the referendum will also be registered for the general election. This means that the reported registration problems should not be such a big issue in Scotland.
My instinct is that Labour and Tories will win roughly the same number of seats, but much will depend on what happens to Labour in Scotland. If Labour lose too many seats in Scotland, the Tories could stay in government as a minority administration and see how it goes, I would expect that it would be very difficult and within a year there would be a vote of no confidence triggering another election. The EU referendum is then likely not to happen in 2017.
The numbers for 8% must be worse.
Came across this, which for what ever reason, does not seem to have major media attention :http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/03/12/nuisance_call_ico_raids_call_centre/
One Brighton based call centre making 4 to 6 million nuisance calls each day, now closed down
"With the Budget just 48 hours away, the North Sea oil and gas industry is eagerly awaiting details of major tax cuts I am told are being prepared by the Treasury.
At the moment, the sector pays high levels of tax compared to other industries. It pays a corporation tax rate of 30% and an additional "supplementary tax" of 32%. For older fields, the rate can rise as high as 80%, according to Mike Tholen, economics director at Oil and Gas UK, the main industry body.
In the past, the North Sea has always been considered something of a cash cow, there to be milked by governments of all political hues. But the collapsing oil price has meant that the economics of doing business in the sector have changed radically.
As the Greek proverb says, when milking a cow be careful not to pull the udders off.
The oil industry argues that the major tax rises the government put in place in 2011 - when the oil price averaged above $111 a barrel (it's now around $55) - should now be reversed.
That would mean bringing the supplementary tax rate down to 20%. The government has already agreed that it should be reduced from 32% to 30%.
And now it looks clear that the Treasury is going to go a lot further. And certainly the industry thinks a 10% tax cut is not out of the question."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31906966
1) Will UKIP win 10%+ of the votes ?
2) In what areas of the country will UKIP perform better and affect the outcome ?
3) Lib Dems will hold onto their safe seats, but what will happen to the 2010 Lib Dem votes, where they cannot win ?
4) Will SNP perform as well as the polls predict or will 2010 Labour supporters return to voting for the existing MP ?
5) Will the level of turnout to vote hurt Labour ?
Re
1) & 2) I think UKIP will win about 10% of the votes, but in some areas of the south and east of England, UKIP could win 20%+ of the votes. Where Labour cannot win, I think we could well see some Labour tactical votes for UKIP. This could make for some very close results. In seats where Labour can win, the Tories voting UKIP may be enough for Labour to win seats. As for UKIP, I think they will win about 6 seats.
3) If the pollls are correct, atleast a quarter of the 2010 Lib Dem votes will go to Labour. This is approx 1.5 million votes around the country going to Labour. That could make significant difference in some seats, when you factor in Tories losing more votes to UKIP.
4) I don't think that SNP will perform as well as the polls predict. Once the campaign starts, I think 2010 Labour voters will be persuaded to vote for the existing Labour MP. SNP already run Holyrood and they are due to get extra powers. Why would an independence party having lost a recent referendum think that they can gain more for a Westminster government that what has recently been agreed. The other parties at Westminster would block it. If Scotland is on the left politics wise, I am sure they would prefer a Labour government, that the Tories.
5) The new voter registration system will worry Labour, as there are estimates of 750k of people not having re-registered to vote. If these are mostly younger people who might have voted Labour, then it could have a small effect. If the turnout is low, with older more Tory voters being reliable as usual, then the Tories may do better than expected.
"The argument is a simple one: productivity, or output per hour and worker, fell from annual improvements of roughly 2% a year before the Great Crash, to more-or-less zero since 2010; that stagnation is a big reason why wages have been so stagnant over the past few years; and it also explains why income tax revenues have failed to improve as expected in spite of a reasonably robust economic recovery. ....
The Resolution Foundation has today published some work showing quite how much productivity matters to the magnitude of cuts necessary to restore the health of the public finances.
The chart below says it all. It shows for example that if productivity were only to grow on average at 0.5% a year during the life of the next parliament, the Tories would have to make spending cuts or increase taxes by £104bn - roughly double their current plans - to hit their deficit reduction target.
But if productivity could be boosted to 4%, a Tory government would actually have £18bn to give away, in the form of tax cuts or greater public spending....
The problem is that what's required to do just that is fairly unpredictable in terms of outcome and very long-term in effect.
For example, the skills of British people would need to be enhanced - which would require little short of an education revolution.
And the City would have to be better at channelling money to businesses with potential and killing off the dogs. But this would require the City to abandon its short-termist approach to investment, which has been dreamed of by governments of all shades and colours for decades, and never delivered."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31907597
Productivity is the most misused of statistics, for a lot of very good reasons, and tends to be quoted most by those who don't really understand economics. (I would include both Mr Peston, and Mr Evans-Pritchard in this camp.)
Because productivity does not measure "like-for-like" it tends to rise during periods of increasing unemployment, and fall during periods of decreasing. (This happens for two reasons: firstly, it is the most economically marginal workers who are laid off first; and secondly because the young, who have the lowest productivtiy, are the ones who see their unemployment rate soar when times are bad and vice-versa.)
So: Greece and Spain's productivity has soared 36 and 35% in the last five years - but at the expense of dreadful unemployment. Ours and Germany's has worsened, and -lo - we have seen unemployment decline in both countries.
Wages have also been stagnant in the United States, Japan, Spain, Portugal, and Germany.
That has nothing to do with the UK's substandard productivity growth.
2) The Midlands is the fascinating one for me. The LibDems never really got into top gear in the Midlands, which has been largely a Lab/Con ding-dong for decades. UKIP getting in the mix here would be fascinating. And unpredictable. Recent press reports of Labour getting worried are obviously wholly at odds with the steady-as-a-rock reports from Broxtowe. We'll see.
3) define LibDem "safe seats". Current polling is heading downwards to 25 year lows, not improving.
4) The SNP have the easiest message to deliver of anyone in this election. "Keep Westminster true to the Pledge. For Scotland. Vote SNP" It appeals to those who voted Yes. It appeals to those who voted No, but...more devolution. Plus they have a huge team of beserkers to campaign for them. I see them topping 50% of the Scottish vote.
5) I don't see the registration drops hurting Labour particularly. I expect the biggest drops are in their safest seats.
2. South East/East coast, could affect outcomes adversely for Labour in the Midlands, Conservatives in SW. Just a finger in the air guess though. On a good night some gains from lab in South Yorks
3.Evaporate, stay at home, go green, go UKIP. Lib Dem truly safe seats are thin, maybe less than 10.
4. A modest swingback, SNP by 15 pts which will be good enough for 45 seats or so.
5. Maybe, a tiny bit but it'll be lost in roundings.
I just heard about Nicola Sturgeon's tour of the universities where by all accounts she's impressive. As important she's being ridiculed by just the right sort of opponents.
The sexist Sun have her in a tartan Milly Cyrus outfit and Quentin Letts is as always finding 'bonkers' aliterations. But through the mist her message that the Tories must be got rid of is getting through. And what's more she even sounds like an honest broker.
Infact a whole rag tag of anti Tory paties are now sending out the same message. For those only listening with only half an ear Cameron has the sexist old dynosaurs and those with a large financial interest versus the rest. Even their partners in coalition seem to be holding their nose.
For all of these reasons Cameron's Tories are starting to emmanate a Thatchery whiff that I don't think is particularly deserved.
And the result is that Labour are getting a boost that their leadershi has failed to earn.
The Midlands is interesting, but parts of Birmingham are very different to Shropshire or other rural areas. I think Labour will do quite well in many seats.
SNP will put some people off, once they start talking about their policies.
Mr. 67, whilst the papers have less influence now than in the recent past, we shouldn't write them off.
Mr. Roger, Sturgeon is going to take perhaps as many as 50 seats away from Labour, and presents English voters with the nightmare prospect of the SNP holding the Sword of Damocles dangling above Miliband's premiership.
I'm amused at your line 'Even their partners in coalition...'. The Lib Dems have been bitching almost from day one [which may be why they're getting sod all credit].
I bet the Conservatives would love to get a 'Thatchery whiff' of the electoral success she enjoyed.
Bad news for UKIP without Dirty Desmond backing them.
20 minutes
They conclude that whilst the short factors have been very important, it seems increasingly clearer that something longer term is going on. They are unsure how long these longer term factors (lack of investment, slowing down of the innovation pipeline, survival of poor firms despite the recession etc) will persist.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q201.pdf
The first part [in which we're introduced to the horribly wounded Gertrude] is here: http://www.kraxon.com/zodiac-eclipse-rebirth/
Labour row in Halifax, one for the kippers ?
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 14th March Projection) :
Con 310 (-2) .. Lab 250 (NC) .. LibDem 30 (-1) .. SNP 34 (+2) .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 (+1) .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 16 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - TCTC
Warwickshire North - TCTC
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC from Likely LibDem Gain
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - TCTC
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 14 Mar - Watford - TCTC from Likely LibDem GAIN
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
I think this unlikely to happen (and it'd be vile if it did), but if it does that would dramatically alter the balance of power.
The floor has been 30 and today is the fifth time the yellow peril has hit this low.
As Marquee Mark observes, my impressions are different from the thread header's - there seem to be fewer undecideds than usual (this is not an optimism bias - I've found most Tories quite firmly Tory too). I think it's a reflection of a very tight marginal - essentially it's been in election mode since 2010, whereas in South Snoreshire people haven't heard anything about politics for years and are only just getting round to thinking what to do.
Is it giving any indication of turnout? I remember the MacARSE did...
I think the LibDems will get high teens seats personally, with quite a lot of supposedly safe seats falling - I'd put Twickenham, Southwark on the "lose" list, for example.
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Lab Gain
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - Con Hold
Croydon Central - TCTC
Enfield North - Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely Con Gain
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
imo.
"Many thanks for another showing of your ARSE."
Until it deals with its lack of transparancy I think it should be cast into a bottomless pit
18.3.15 LAB 291 (290) CON 271(273) LD 30(30) UKIP 3(3) Others 55(54) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 50 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Lab Gain
Cambridge - TCTC
Ipswich - Likely Lab Gain
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - TCTC
Enfield North - Lab Gain
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
IMO
"The amount spent on ferrying patients to hospital in taxis has soared by almost 50% in a year, figures obtained by BBC reveal.
The Welsh Ambulance Service spent £269,653 in the first 11 months of 2014, compared with £181,331 in 2013.
It said the rise was because of a new scheme which saw patients transported in taxis when it was safe to do so.
But the Welsh Conservatives said the money could be better spent.
In December 2014 the number of ambulances hitting the target response time for the most urgent calls fell to its lowest level for three years.
Only 51% of urgent emergency responses in November arrived within eight minutes - 14 percentage points lower than the target of 65%."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-31911856
Want to put some money on Cambridge?
Schoolchildren in the valleys have the lowest reading and numeracy levels in Wales, the BBC has found.
Pupils from schools in Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Merthyr Tydfil, Rhondda Cynon Taf and Torfaen scored the lowest results in last year's English language reading and numeracy tests.
It is the second year children aged between seven and 14 have been tested......
According to the 2010 National Survey of Adult Skills in Wales, more than 900,000 people in Wales - around half the adult population - have maths skills equivalent to primary school pupils aged between nine and 11......
According to latest figures, more than 15% of adults in Blaenau Gwent left school without any qualifications, almost twice the British average.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-31912566
LAB at 2.06 is about right i think.
In North Cornwall you can get 1.98 on Tories LD slight favourites in virtual coin toss IMO