Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For those who think that political betting markets are pred
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For those who think that political betting markets are predictive check out what happened in 2010
As we all remember LAB came out with 258 seats so those punters who placed spread bets on Gordon Brown’s party on election day five years ago did very nicely indeed. A £50 buy bet on LAB with SPIN on the morning of the 2010 general election would have been at a level 39 seats below what happened. So the profit would have been 39 times £50. Not bad.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11468704/Ed-Two-Kitchens-Miliband-under-fire-in-bizarre-row.html
IIRC, back in 2010 it was Stephen Fisher's model which triumphed with a near perfect prediction of the result. Curiously very little attention is being paid on PB.com to his forecasting this time around, compared say with the polling results produced by the largely untried and untested relative new boy on the block, Lord Ashcroft. It has to be said however that the full scale of the SNP's surge has only very recently reflected in his model's seat projections, the latest update of which should appear later this morning.
1600 minutes
Far more attention, praise and honours should be heaped upon those with a proven general election track record both here and across the pond, whoever these Scottish nobles and PB TOTY might be.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/uk-election-forecast/
As will be seen from the piece, the good people of Skegness are set to be graced by a visit by the aforesaid Nathaniel.
What I discovered, of course, is that whilst there are undoubtedly some shrewdies who can and do make money on political betting their input is swamped by well off tories voting with their hearts rather than their heads having convinced themselves that all reasonable people must think like them.
But the chat has been good.
What that tells me is the (rarely mentioned) truth that Labour actually did very well in GE2010, given the hopeless position they were in, and fought a very strong rearguard action.
Impressive when you consider they "should" have lost a further 40 seats. ~20 or so to the Lib Dem surge that never was, yes, but also another 20 to the Tories.
I think Lord A has made a fundamental error in using different polling companies for each set of polls. While I appreciate they are only data gathering for him, and the methodology and analytical approach are uniquely his, it does seem to introduce a potentially uncontrolled element of volatility into the numbers.
Who are that group polling for now?
One of the many things that makes me wonder about Ed is how far Mandleson is off the reservation this time. He seems to get ruder about Ed every time he speaks which is becoming increasingly frequently.
I think that elections with over 100 seats changing hands are pretty rare, that there is a lot of inertia in the system. Political landslides are pretty infrequent, though a Scottish one is on the cards.
I am not a spread better myself, I do not like the idea of (near) unlimited liability, so my bets ave been on the seat bands. It looks to me that all of the parties have the value on the down side, so not sure who is going to be the winner!
I think we also tend to see a similar effect in the States where more money gets put on the Republicans than is strictly rational. I have noticed some of the smarter operators on here like OGH and antifrank seem to think there are opportunities in swimming against the tide where weight of money is distorting the underlying reality.
The LD Don't Knows/Refusals are down to 14%.
That's the lowest I can recall seeing in that column and for every LD switcher going to Labour, there are two moving into a different column.
Similarly a bright-eyed 20 year old student in 2010 is now a 25 year old post grad with a lower living standard than their older siblings.
Labour 2015. Why would you take the risk?
The situation may be affected by UKIP overbetting too. I struggle to find decent odds on even unlikely gains, and have profitably bet against the UKIP surgers on a number of by elections and also the Euro-bands.
I agree too on the Mandelson effect in 2010. Mandelson was a great manipulator of the dark arts. Definitely a Slytherin. The current team are not in the same league.
This time around we have a Labour leader who genuinely believes that legislation is the best way to fix prices, who talks about predators in vague and threatening terms and who promises to fund every daft promise he can think of by Bankers bonus and mansion taxes.
No wonder Mandelson is in despair. No wonder Balls is making sly jibes at his leader. This is Kinnock without John Smith. It is a huge leap in the dark.
@TheSunNewspaper: Gimme 5 more! We chat to Sam Cam, for our Comic Relief special: http://t.co/fU4lVzd18U #RND2015 http://t.co/OtBtOZE7PN
For anyone who has joint interest in the worlds of F1 and contract law, then the current situation with Giedo van der Garde will seem hilarious. Take millions from three people for two positions, and not have the money to pay the get-out clauses ...
That said, Populus is more than capable of upsetting this particular applecart with its latest polling results due to be announced over the next few hours.
As expertly tipped* by me, Bottas was top 3 in P1. Backed each way at 17, that's 1/5 the odds for top 3, which is alright.
After Alonso and Honda conspired to make my bet on him winning in Australia a 0% chance and my super cunning 5 bet on him Not To Be Classified getting made null and void, it's nice to be in the green.
*Vaguely mentioned. I won't be counting it towards the weekend's results.
Will have a look at the results of practice and then contemplate putting together a pre-qualifying piece.
Edited extra bit: bloody hell. Sky have redesigned their F1 site to make it worse and now the official site's done the same. It was so easy to navigate before... I'll get used to it, but it looks dreadful.
It does seem like rank incompetence.
Hm: AFAIK, there is no obligation for an energy supplier to supply energy to clients If it is unprofitable for them to continue in business, then they can either export their energy to a client/country who will pay the economic price or shut down plants.
Also many of the UK's energy suppliers are owned by non-UK companies - would EdM have a duff up with Hollande? (ten 3 minute rounds in the Bois de Boulogne - or just pistols at dawn?)
Of course EdM could always nationalise the UK energy generation and supply - of course he would have to pay the global price for gas and oil imports - or would he just use a HMG subsidy and so rapidly grow the deficit and debt - and so the interest rate on UK paper would rise and so increasing the deficit and debt even more.
No matter he did teach economics at Harvard - all theory of course.
So I've done very well under this government, as someone who lives in SE England and works in London.
But I'd be even better off had I graduated and bought my home five years earlier. Similarly, it'd have been much harder for me for buy my home five years later. There does seem to be a trend.
And I have no idea what you do in the North or Midlands if you haven't been to university and want to get on. I imagine it's very hard indeed.
"If I were PM all the things would be cheaper, and I'd make it law that everyone had more money, and was happier."
It's not that far away from the insanity of Scottish Labour's promise to have 1,000 nurses more than the SNP want.
Although they were all basically saying the same thing of 48-52 and that was within the MOE for a single poll for every single poll to be saying that put the chance of it actually being 51-49 or better for Yes as incredibly slim. NO should have been 1.05 or less on the exchange not the 1.22 that it was.
I suppose people weren't fully believing the polls as they were untested.
Or watch Sky.
Only managed to see one question, when a bright young lady asked him 'would not Labour be in a better position if your brother was the Labour Leader.'
Never have I seen a man so unprepared for one of the most obvious questions that may arise.
He jerked back in his chair, opened his eyes in surprise (probably that anyone would dare to ask him that question - or that it had not been moderated out) and started to mumble and waffle.
Both his lack of ability for quick thinking and his lack of preparedness would leave the UK with a PM that the world (and certainly the EU and Brussels) would laugh at.
David, You're one of the shrewdest PB commentators.
Ironic, eh?
The reality of life in Tory Britain is the only campaign tool that will work for Labour; zero hours, bedroom tax , privatisation, cuts, closure of public services etc. etc.
That said, I think his 24 seat LibDem prediction looks too high. Unless the LibDems crawl back into double digits, in which case it might be right.
Not quite up there with IDS muddling up "in" and "at" in relationship to Perugia, but definitely deliberately misleading
Not quite up there with IDS muddling up "in" and "at" in relationship to Perugia, but definitely deliberately misleading
I would put more store by anyone on here.
2 kitchen Miliband...never more than 20 feet from a bacon sandwich!
This campaign is going to be legend
"On 25 July 2002, it was announced that Miliband would take a 12-month unpaid sabbatical from the Treasury to be a visiting scholar at the Centre for European Studies of Harvard University for two semesters.[22] He spent his time at Harvard teaching economics,[23] and stayed there after September 2003 for an additional semester teaching a course titled "What's Left? The Politics of Social Justice"
He was after my time there, but found that Harvard did teach a lot of theoretical theory.
Surely the reason why Miliband has two kitchens is bleedin' obvious? It's because he's Jewish. Two kitchens are completely normal in observant Jewish homes. You have the meat kitchen and the milk kitchen. If his little non-kitchen isn't a kitchen at all, and is just for making tea (LOL), why does it have a bloody oven in it? Is it to save walking 20 feet to the real kitchen to warm up the latkes? Pffft.
Where space does not permit two completely separate kitchens, a doctrinally acceptable alternative is then to have a meat end and a milk end of the same kitchen, as far away from each other as can be contrived. I didn't realise this was allowed until I bought a house so configured in NW11; needs must, I suppose. There was one actual kitchen space, but it had an invisible line across the middle and you had a separate sink, dishwasher, oven etc at opposite ends. Two kitchens, in effect, but a very inefficient design layout for most purposes.
Miliband no doubt does observant when it suits him, and not when it doesn't; almost as though he were a nasty, cynical, unprincipled little weasel, or something.
@politicshome: Caroline Flint on BBC News: "I have got one kitchen + I'm very pleased that...we will have the chance to discuss issues of substance".
If he were observant, he wouldn't eat bacon sarnies or describe himself as an atheist, surely?
[Mind you, if he were Jewish in a religious sense that would at least make his comment on being the first Jewish PM make sense. If he *is* an atheist, then he wouldn't be, as the first ethnically Jewish PM was Disraeli].
Mr. Antifrank, it's akin to the debates 'problem' for Cameron. It won't shift opinion much at all, but it does stop the man in question getting the points across that he wants to talk about, and having the piss taken is not helpful.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/blighty/2014/01/labours-economic-plans
I expect that it will pass most people by completely.
What % rate is the Bedroom Tax levied at?
I still haven't got my free owl yet, but looking forward to my second kitchen.
Have Labour actually tried to salvage this cluster%%%%?
Interesting that the Lib Dems fell short of the betting expectation than the Conservatives did.
Since Labour was the beneficiary of both of these shortfalls, was the key problem a failure by the Lib Dems to take Labour seats?
No, the OTHER kitchen....
Two kitchens? Top band....
Mr. Eek, is it possible to rush in a 2015 McLaren?
EdM knows what it's like not to know where your next meal is coming from.