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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft polling on the leaders

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  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Neil said:

    antifrank said:

    May I join pb's open borders society?

    It's a closed group, AF ;)
    I think he may still be able to get in if he passes the society citizenship test about the history of our organization, or have we already hit the quota for this year?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,889
    antifrank said:

    @taffys UKIP are popular because a section of society are tired of having to wrestle with the complexities and shades of grey that the modern world requires, and would prefer not to have to think about them. Grubby compromise isn't as much fun as flouncing off in a purist huff. But it's usually a better solution in the long term.

    On the other hand many people see the mainstream parties as the ones who are ignoring the complexities and shades of grey of the real world due to their remoteness from ordinary people.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,712
    edited June 2013
    Sherwood constituency aggregates, 2013 local elections, using the following electoral divisions:

    Ashfield: Hucknall
    Gedling: Calverton
    Gedling: Newstead
    Newark & Sherwood: Blidworth
    Newark & Sherwood: Farnsfield & Lowdham
    Newark & Sherwood: Ollerton
    Newark & Sherwood: Rufford

    Lab: 10,277 (38.61%)
    Con: 8,235 (30.94%)
    UKIP: 6,374 (23.95%)
    Ind: 870 (3.27%)
    LD: 703 (2.64%)
    Others: 158 (0.59%)

    Changes since 2010 GE:

    Lab: -0.20%
    Con: -8.30%
    UKIP: +20.90%
    LD: -12.24%
    Ind: +2.82%
    Others: -2.99%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 4.05%

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxoSGFQaWg1V2tyYklHcXFkTm9LTXc#gid=0
  • The EU will never, ever, EVER relinquish power.

    I would be very happy with a 'slow lane', 'associate' membership status - as long it basically meant we were free to manage our own affairs as we see fit. Really it would be good to see the EU give up completely on 'ever closer' and become a club of free independent members.

    It will never happen.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,300
    Looks like we're about to start spending again;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22838241

    The good times are on their way back! :^O
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    BenM said:

    taffys said:

    The article is also a bit simplistic about this too although the news is not great.

    There you go again. People who oppose EU membership simply cannot get their heads around the complexities of why its such a good idea. Therefore they shouldn't be listened to.
    Its an utterly toxic attitude that is as responsible for the rise of UKIP as anything else.

    Actually I think what we've seen since Cameron's Europe speech is that pandering to the vastly over simplistic UKIP line on the EU actually feeds the monster.

    And poll after poll highlights the British public's lack of knowledge about the EU and how it works. You don't have to like the EU, it has many failings, but I'm sorry, I'm not going to respect the opinions of Outers when so much of it is built upon sheer ignorance.
    But why then should anyone respect the opinions of Inners when so much of it is built upon sheer ignorance.

    Not to mention prejudice and lies.

    Fifteen years ago you would have been condemning those opposed to joining the Euro of having opinions 'built upon sheer ignorance'.

    Yet now you agree that joining the Euro would have been bad for Britain.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I see the French air traffic controllers are striking. Unlike them.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    taffys said:

    The article is also a bit simplistic about this too although the news is not great.

    There you go again. People who oppose EU membership simply cannot get their heads around the complexities of why its such a good idea. Therefore they shouldn't be listened to.
    Its an utterly toxic attitude that is as responsible for the rise of UKIP as anything else.

    Actually I think what we've seen since Cameron's Europe speech is that pandering to the vastly over simplistic UKIP line on the EU actually feeds the monster.

    And poll after poll highlights the British public's lack of knowledge about the EU and how it works. You don't have to like the EU, it has many failings, but I'm sorry, I'm not going to respect the opinions of Outers when so much of it is built upon sheer ignorance.
    We've seen time and time again on here that eurosceptics know far more about the EU and various competing options than the europhiles do. The main fact trotted out by the europhiles is the three million jobs lie, so I don't think your side can be all high and mighty about this.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    TGOHF said:

    Cameron calls out the left

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10110200/David-Cameron-dont-patronise-little-Englanders-worried-by-immigration.html

    ""We're familiar with some of the arguments," he said. "Open your borders. National sovereignty is obsolete.

    I think that must be addressed to me, hardly anyone on the left or right agrees with me, sadly.
    How many million do you think would come to the UK each year if we genuinely had open borders?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,639
    antifrank said:

    @taffys UKIP are popular because a section of society are tired of having to wrestle with the complexities and shades of grey that the modern world requires, and would prefer not to have to think about them. Grubby compromise isn't as much fun as flouncing off in a purist huff. But it's usually a better solution in the long term.

    Another utterly wrong analysis.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited June 2013
    ...and in fact my own No 1 beef with the EU is that it is not a democracy. Any true democracy offers the chance to kick the buggers out - and change not only the team but the direction. Alternate visions can get voted in in a democracy.

    The EU is governed by unelected Commissioners. They are not accountable to anyone. There is no mechanism for getting rid. Likewise the 'ever closer' religion. There is just no means whatever to change course. There is nothing any European voter can do via a ballot box to alter the unidirectional, socialist, statist, big government EU monster's advance.

    I can live with getting outvoted by our lefty scum here in the UK, as I believe they should have equal votes as the enlightened sensible small staters. But those who make laws and govern me from Brussels - I am not even permitted to compete with them with my vote. Those who think they are untouchable in politics usually find out the hard way that it isn't so.

    And it is this democratic deficit which will ultimately kill the EU. If the EZ becomes a superstate it's going to have to find itself a means for its citizens to elect AND DESELECT those with the real power. The option of dropping the Euro, returning powers, reforming the state, listening to the people will have to be there. Or it will go the way of all dicatatorships - which start with good intentions...

    The EU is utterly illiberal and undemocratic (which is, of course, why the Yellow Peril loves it so much).
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Another day, another bunch of posts from Socrates about immigrants and/or Muslims. We get that you're very concerned and think that us lefties don't pay enough attention to it. You sound a decent bloke and are clearly genuinely worried. But you don't half go on about it on every thread. Could you maybe post some cat videos or something to avoid us feeling you're a bit obsessed?

    I usually only mention it in response to articles in the news, but as you made the request politely I'll try to scale it back a bit.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Just casting my eyes to the DT comments re Cameron's speech - I do wonder how the Kippers will be talking as the world turns again and they are no longer charging ahead. It comes to every party in the end.

    I for one will be pleased when some balance is restored to the reader comments - the anger, self-righteousness and name-calling on there is really off-putting. Mob behaviour from far too many.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BenM said:

    Financier said:

    TGOHF said:

    Cameron is spot on in this

    "“To succeed, it’s no use just hiding away from the world – we’ve got to roll our sleeves up and compete in it.”"


    EU protectionism is not the answer to our problems. The business is out there - you just have to go and find it.
    The way Germany do (from inside the EU) you mean?
    How are you proposing we replicate Germany's undervalued exchange rate?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I'm not going to respect the opinions of Outers when so much of it is built upon sheer ignorance.

    You may have a point, but in politics you cannot refuse to debate with someone simply because you don;t think they know what they are talking about.

    That, in effect, is what the europhiles have done in the past decade, and that is why we have UKIP now.

    Plus the europhiles have discredited themselves with equally 'sophisticated' arguments about why we should join the euro and why we would have more influence inside the euro club than outside.

    These arguments have turned out to be patent nonsense. Why are the philes assuming they have been so right now when they have been so wrong before? where is the self examination? where is the mea culpa?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    Andy_JS said:

    Liberal Democrats seem to be pleased with the Labour selection in Bermondsey, which perhaps means Labour may have made the wrong choice.

    Not the straight choice then ?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Part of a great programme about a great man, but particularly interesting is the minute or so from 6:39 where the architects of multiculturalism admit they got it wrong

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHipbJl-81o
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Socrates said:

    TGOHF said:

    Cameron is spot on in this

    "“To succeed, it’s no use just hiding away from the world – we’ve got to roll our sleeves up and compete in it.”"

    Yes, he is. Shame that he thinks the way to do that is to stay in an organisation that puts up trade barriers with the rest of the world, spends half its budget on agricultural subsidies and regulates the hell out of product and labour markets.
    I think Cam's answer is to stay in and change it. My greatest fear is that if we were to leave the EU it would evolve intentionally in a way which would put us at disadvantage. So there is an argument that by staying in you can change it, or if not, by wrecking it from within.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Computer's on the blink, so I may disappear for a few days.

    Mr. Patrick, that's my single biggest problem with the EU as well. We don't have control over our own destiny, and even if there were an EU demos (which there is not) that too would not be able to fundamentally change anything due to the cabal of meddlesome anti-democrats squatting in Brussels.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,243
    Cameron's speech: +.1 UKIP, -.1 CON.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Socrates said:


    How are you proposing we replicate Germany's undervalued exchange rate?

    By joining the Euro! You know it makes sense.
  • antifrank said:

    @taffys UKIP are popular because a section of society are tired of having to wrestle with the complexities and shades of grey that the modern world requires, and would prefer not to have to think about them. Grubby compromise isn't as much fun as flouncing off in a purist huff. But it's usually a better solution in the long term.

    The rise of UKIP is, I think, directly related to the point I just made about the need for democracies to offer a choice. The 3 main parties don't really. Maybe Dave sort of does with his cast iron commitments - but you just know he'll campaign for an In not an Out. And when voters look at their regular choices and see no fundamental choice on offer, when all they see is shades of metrosexual oneness, then they exercise their right to go elsewhere.

    It is hugely to our national credit that we have this 'oh just sod off' gene. UKIP may never gain power - but they are the ones shaping UK politics.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,712
    Cameron today was putting himself forward as the moderate choice between two extremes: how original.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    UKIP are popular because a section of society are tired of having to wrestle with the complexities and shades of grey that the modern world requires, and would prefer not to have to think about them.

    Is the world really more complex and replete with shades of grey than it ever was?

    or are we simply being told that to get us to shut the f8ck up and leave the big decisions to those who go to Davos and attend Bilderberg. People who understand 'the complexities' and think they have a right to decide on our behalf?

    Ukippers would argue its the latter, and I have some sympathy with them.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Patrick said:


    And it is this democratic deficit which will ultimately kill the EU. If the EZ becomes a superstate it's going to have to find itself a means for its citizens to elect AND DESELECT those with the real power. The option of dropping the Euro, returning powers, reforming the state, listening to the people will have to be there. Or it will go the way of all dicatatorships - which start with good intentions...

    Dropping the Euro would be something the individual member states would decide to do. They could certainly do it if they wanted to. It's not quite clear what the technical legal situation is, but in practice nobody would try to stop them.

    Returning powers has to be a unanimous decision of the governments of all the member states and get ratified by all their parliaments, which is a very high hurdle. I think it would be better if the EU constitution could be changed by a super-majority of the member states plus a Europe-wide referendum rather than being something that can be vetoed by individual countries, but I doubt you'll agree.

    But what can and will happen is the elected EU-wide jobs getting more powerful. It's already happening with the EU parliament, which will also (very probably) choose the Commission president. Over time the elected president will start to push against the limits of their mandate and bully the member states into giving them more control, until it looks more like a regular country. This is what happened with the US; POTUS wasn't supposed to be directly elected, or particularly powerful, but in practice they grew their mandate little by little without explicitly changing the constitution to allow it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    More eurozone prosperity. Greek stock market down 6% after surprise failure of gas privatisation: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/jun/10/eurozone-crisis-japan-nikkei-francois-hollande
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    More eurozone prosperity. Greek stock market down 6% after surprise failure of gas privatisation

    Tbf the Greek stock market is up about 90% over the last 12 months.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Lots of people recovered from the Black Death too. It doesn't mean plague's good for your health.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    So daily market movements are proof of something when they move in a direction that backs up your prejudices while the year-on-year changes are not when they are in an inconvenient direction?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,712
    Amber Valley constituency aggregates, 2013 local elections, (using all Amber Valley divisions apart from Alport & Derwent, Belper, Duffield & Belper South):

    Lab: 10,279 (43.8%)
    Con: 6,606 (28.1%)
    UKIP: 4,703 (20.0%)
    LD: 663 (2.8%)
    Ind: 415 (1.8%)
    Green: 145 (0.6%)
    Others: 659 (2.8%)

    Changes since 2010 GE:

    Lab: +6.4%
    Con: -10.5%
    UKIP: +18.0%
    LD: +11.6%

    Swing, Con to Lab: 8.4%

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGxDVWFzUnk2c2JUZEZaMXZnRGx4NGc#gid=0
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Prejudice?

    I think most would agree that the eurozone sovereign debt crisis is a bad thing, is unresolved, and has hit Greece particularly hard. It's not pre-judging to look at the eurozone's past and currency performance and think to oneself "That's not super".

    That said, I was against the euro from the start, as were lots of other sensible chaps derided by pro-EU and pro-euro sorts who now look sillier than a cat in a tutu.
This discussion has been closed.