In Wales @ Ceredignion. Plaid held the seat from 1992 up until 2005. I think it's perfectly possible a Lib Dem collapse could see them retaking it. Particularly given the Plaid candidate has some TV glamour.
There could also be a Welsh nationalist 'sympathy vote' increase to mirror the SNP rise (although nothing like to the same extent) and, if the debates do happen, that might help Plaid and their profile too.
But the constituency betting odds aren't attractive enough to tempt me atm.
According to Anthony Wells, the LDs have commissioned 120 private polls. They've only published one, and that shows them tied.
If tied in one constituency is the best of 120 they're looking into the abyss.
Is discussion of these invisible polls still on the verboten list?
Either they're holding the Sanders one back or Kevin is going to get in !
Torbay would be totemic.
We are getting the message out. Sanders is a well-regarded MP and we don't trash him personally. But his re-election is a route for Ed Miliband to get into Downing Street. That fear weighs heavy with many on the doorstep....
In Wales @ Ceredignion. Plaid held the seat from 1992 up until 2005. I think it's perfectly possible a Lib Dem collapse could see them retaking it. Particularly given the Plaid candidate has some TV glamour.
There could also be a Welsh nationalist 'sympathy vote' increase to mirror the SNP rise (although nothing like to the same extent) and, if the debates do happen, that might help Plaid and their profile too.
But the constituency betting odds aren't attractive enough to tempt me atm.
According to Anthony Wells, the LDs have commissioned 120 private polls. They've only published one, and that shows them tied.
If tied in one constituency is the best of 120 they're looking into the abyss.
As someone who knows the city like the back of my hand I'd be extremely surprised if the cons hold on to hove and brighton Kemptown as that election forecast suggests, which throws the whole thing into doubt for me.
In Wales @ Ceredignion. Plaid held the seat from 1992 up until 2005. I think it's perfectly possible a Lib Dem collapse could see them retaking it. Particularly given the Plaid candidate has some TV glamour.
There could also be a Welsh nationalist 'sympathy vote' increase to mirror the SNP rise (although nothing like to the same extent) and, if the debates do happen, that might help Plaid and their profile too.
But the constituency betting odds aren't attractive enough to tempt me atm.
According to Anthony Wells, the LDs have commissioned 120 private polls. They've only published one, and that shows them tied.
If tied in one constituency is the best of 120 they're looking into the abyss.
Is discussion of these invisible polls still on the verboten list?
I did a review of LD seats a couple of weeks back, dividing the LD vote according to the split in 2010 voters in the polling tables, amongst other factors.
In Wales @ Ceredignion. Plaid held the seat from 1992 up until 2005. I think it's perfectly possible a Lib Dem collapse could see them retaking it. Particularly given the Plaid candidate has some TV glamour.
There could also be a Welsh nationalist 'sympathy vote' increase to mirror the SNP rise (although nothing like to the same extent) and, if the debates do happen, that might help Plaid and their profile too.
But the constituency betting odds aren't attractive enough to tempt me atm.
According to Anthony Wells, the LDs have commissioned 120 private polls. They've only published one, and that shows them tied.
If tied in one constituency is the best of 120 they're looking into the abyss.
Is discussion of these invisible polls still on the verboten list?
I did a review of LD seats a couple of weeks back, dividing the LD vote according to the split in 2010 voters in the polling tables, amongst other factors.
I came up with 28 holds. Maybe I am a bit optomistic. The better odds are on the opposition in apparently safe LD seats. People really expecting a wipeout like the Euros should get their stakes on.
What do you expect to happen in Norfolk North?
I have that one down as a LD hold, but my ARSE is no match for Jacks!
Comments
Next, he'll be taking his mummy to PMQs in case Cameron wants to be mean to him.
almost 190,000 signatures, so going well for the BBC then.
Looks like ITV is about to offer Clarkson £10m to come over to them.
BBC - always able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.