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Yougov Sunday Times poll. Con 30, Labour 40, UKIP 14, Lib Dems 9

Read the full story here

Morris_Dancer

Betting Post

Good morning, everyone.

I've backed Nadal to beat Ferrer 3-0 at 1.96, and Webber for a podium at 2.64, hedged at 1.2: enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/canada-pre-race.html

In addition Hamilton should've gotten pole, but cocked up the final corner: http://www.espn.co.uk/canada/motorsport/story/110291.html

Particularly frustrating given how ropey my F1 betting has been this season.

Raikkonen and Ricciardo have both been given 1 place grid penalties for not queueing properly during the final bit of Q2 after the red flag: http://www.espn.co.uk/canada/motorsport/story/110395.html

AlastairMeeks

There's nothing very surprising in any of that really.

FPT @AndyJS Babergh is supposedly the district council with the most listed buildings in England. It would certainly make for a very picturesque by-election setting, with Lavenham, Monks Eleigh, Kersey, Long Melford, Hadleigh and the Suffolk side of the Dedham vale, to name a few.

And my parents, sister and brother-in-law would all have a vote.

EDIT "Babergh" is usually pronounced "bay-bur" with a slight stress on the "bay", a bit like "tuber". Though I have heard someone rhyme it with Fabergé.

Morris_Dancer

With the Xbone's 1984 Kinect and always-on 'features', the spying scandal and now this, I wonder just how long we'll be able to enjoy both online access and the freedom to use it as we wish:

"Some campaigners want web search engines to default to the safest option - blocking access to legal as well as illegal sexual images.

This would force people to register to access such material, likely deterring many from doing so, it is argued."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22831219

How about this: I'm an adult, and I'll look at or buy whatever I bloody well like. My freedom isn't bloody rented from the government or granted at the behest of a benevolent journalist who has deemed my preferences to be acceptable.

Charles

@CD13 FPT

Charles, testing for the safety of drugs is an extremely well-regulated affair. But remember that you are looking for signs of toxicity, so you can estimate the potential for harm in any likely scenario. And everything in life is toxic to some extent, even water. As Paracelsus said, the dose makes the poison.

I've no direct knowledge of cosmetic-testing but I know of potentially life-saving drugs being junked because of side-effects at much higher doses than are ever likely to be used.

Animals used are treated well - it's in the companies' interest to do so. Every rat, for instance, must be scrutinised regularly for any sign of ill-health and at post-mortem, they are examined minutely. Microscopic lesions, even in control animals could doom or delay a drug. Hence the nonsense about stealing stray cats from off the local streets is so barmy. These are lab-bred, pedigree animals ... if they were human, they would not speak to you.

Animal alternatives can be useful on some occasions (and Nick is a principled supporter of these), but the whole animal remains the only alternative for the near future at least. Effects on hormone systems, generational effects, certain metabolic changes can only be established by these methods.

Now as for cosmetics, it depends on what residual risk you want to put up with. I don't use them, so I'd say get rid of them anyway. Or accept they may burn your eyes out - caveat emptor.

CD13, don't get me wrong: while not a fan of animal testing per se, it's absolutely critical to the development of new drugs & the animals on the whole are very well treated. I don't have any role in the lab animal business (logistics are a nightmare) - SPF eggs is the closest I get and they don't poop everywhere!

I am much more sceptical about cosmetic testing because I don't see the benefit. There needs to be a high hurdle of benefit if you are going to test products on animals. Interestingly, you may recall after the HLS scandal the government stepped in with new legislation to protect the pharmaceutical industry from the animal rights nutters. The quid pro quo was that the biggest companies would maintain an absolute ban in principle on non-medical testing on animals to try and minimise controversy)

AlastairMeeks

Further to my previous post, I'm getting old. Two of my nephews would also have a vote. A family ballot box would probably produce the result:

Con: 3
UKIP: 1 (maybe Con if my mother ordered him to do so sufficiently strictly)
Lab: 1
Green: 1

Charles

antifrank said:

Further to my previous post, I'm getting old. Two of my nephews would also have a vote. A family ballot box would probably produce the result:

Con: 3
UKIP: 1 (maybe Con if my mother ordered him to do so sufficiently strictly)
Lab: 1
Green: 1

Mebbe you should vote LIbDem to stop the poor dears being wiped out?

AlastairMeeks

@Charles I don't have a vote in South Suffolk. I remain a floating voter for the next election. My Green-voting nephew, I think, will take after his uncle in his voting style. He might give the Lib Dems a whirl - it's his birthday today so when I call him up, I shall quiz him on his current political thinking.

OldKingCole

Charles, CD13.
Hasn't the vast majority of the "necessary" cosmetic ingredient testing on animals already been done? I may well be wrong, but my impression is that there are very few real new chemical entities in cosmetics.

Charles

OldKingCole said:

Charles, CD13.
Hasn't the vast majority of the "necessary" cosmetic ingredient testing on animals aleady been done? I may well be wrong, but my impression is that there are very few real new chemical entities in cosmetics.

I'm not an expert in the field, but my impression was any new formulation or combination (regardless of whether they are NCEs or not) are often tested

TGOHF

Polls clearly showing rEd would do or say anything to get elected. So why no referendum from Labour ?

TGOHF

Nice to see eco loon Yeo getting nailed.

Carola

TGOHF said:

Nice to see eco loon Yeo getting nailed.

'We'll be talking to Conservative MP Tim Yeo on the Sunday Politics at 11am, BBC1 with @afneil http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22830707 …' robbiegibb

Carola

By the way, thanks TSE for keeping PB going in admirable style. A lengthy stint!

AlastairMeeks

I have to say that the Swedish limb of Arriva are perhaps being a little dopey here?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-22828150

It's madness gone politically correct. Let them wear shorts.

Millsy

Average of YouGov weekly (Sunday) polls published in May 2013 with changes on May 2012:

Con: 29.75% (-1.50%)
Lab: 39.75% (-3.25%)
Ukip: 14.00% (+5.75%)
LD: 9.75% (+1.0%)

Carola

Yeo on Sky shortly.

Mick_Pork

Morris_Dancer said:

"With the Xbone's 1984 Kinect and always-on 'features',"

Microsoft clarified both as well as the used games issue.

You can turn the Kinect off or pause it at any time and you control the data it collects and can send out. Of course their bigger blunder was packaging the useless thing with the console in the first place as my industry friends just laugh when asked about what good Kinect is for games.

Always on is a verification check every 24 hours which has to do with the validity of games, piracy and the used game issue. I think it's pretty crap and I'm not alone but apparently PC gamers live with this type of thing all the time with Steam and other checks.

Morris_Dancer said:

"or granted at the behest of a benevolent journalist who has deemed my preferences to be acceptable."

*chortle*

Ironic indeed.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pork, when the 'off' switch of a console is apparently a selling point there's something wrong with the console.

Microsoft retains the right to alter its terms, and that's assuming the system never gets hacked. Which brings me onto the online connectivity, namely if Microsoft has a problem at their end the Xbox One becomes an expensive brick.

I concur with you regarding the crapness of the 24 hour rule, but this is for every single game, whereas the online requirement varies for PC games (I believe, I'm not a PC gamer). Furthermore, PC games tend to be cheaper and come with the potential for modding.

AveryLP

Pray tell me, why is YouGov asking "who is to blame for the current state of the economy"?

Surely a more appropriate question today is "who should get the credit for the current recovery in the economy?".

Millsy

Who do Ukip and LD10 voters blame most for "the current state of the British economy"? (net blame less not to blame)

Gordon Brown
All: 51
Ukip: 74
LD10: 51

Ed Balls
All: 9
Ukip: 51
LD10: -5

David Cameron
All: 15
Ukip: 15
LD10: 33

George Osborne
All: 22
Ukip: 25
LD10: 44

Ukip voters attach a lot of blame to Balls but Lib Dems blame Cameron and Osborne more (less than Brown though).

Edit: from today's YouGov

NickPalmer

Responding to CD13, Charles and OldKingCole on animal tests: the position on cosmetics is that around 3-5% of new cosmetics each year use new ingredients - typically a new sunscreen that enables you to tan faster without increased risk of skin cancer.

It's generally agreed that safety testing is needed. However, in many cases animal tests are used that are no better or even inferior models of humans compared to alternatives - the reason they're still used in this case is that it's easier and cheaper to go on using what you know and are equipped for.

For example, we do need to test to see if shampoo will blind you if it gets in your eyes. The classic Draize test involves keeping rabbits clamped in frames for several days and forcing the shampoo into their eyes - as rabbits can't blink it away, you get a fairly clear result within 3 days. It's very unpleasant, as anyone who has had shampoo in their eyes for 10 seconds will confirm, never mind 3 days. It's banned in Europe but is common in other countries.

However, you get exactly the same quality result if you use the BCOP test on eyes taken from cows that have been slaughtered for meat. The cow doesn't mind as it's dead, and it doesn't blink either for the same reason. But it needs you to go to the trouble of training to use it and fixing up a deal with a slaughterhouse to transport the eyes over in cooled, secure containers, so it needs pressure from groups like mine to persuade you to bother. Or you could use a human cell culture, which actually gives more safety for humans (most domestic rabbits don't *really* use shampoo!) but is even more trouble and expense.

My trip to Vietnam a couple of months ago was because the State authorities there use the Draize test. I persuaded them that it would be attractive to change, since they would then be the leading labs in ASEAN using modern non-animal testing technology, and companies wanting to export to the EU (which now bans cosmetic imports tested on animals) would flock to give them contracts. They are now quite keen if the switch is funded by others, so the next job is to raise the money for the necessary equipment and training. My Chinese trip was about the same sort of things.

There's a discussion of the science generally here, which also discusses the sort of experiments in the UK which we'd argue are indefensible:

http://www.buav.org/humane-science/science-reports/

Essentially Cruelty Free International (for which I'm Policy Director) is an advocacy group for lab animals trying to prompt global reconsideration of whether each type of experiment is needed for cosmetics and household products like bleach. If we and others didn't do it, inertia would mean that countries kept on using the old methods long after better alternatives had appeared.

Domestically, the UK sister organisation the BUAV (I work for both - the BUAV covers animal experiments of all kinds) has as its central current proposal is that project licences (which detail what's done and what the hoped-for benefit are) should be published online by the Home Office, with all details of the people, location, companies and anything commercially confidential removed. We could then have a rational debate on whether potential result X justified suffering Y. At present it would be a criminal offence for the Home Office to disclose details of what it is approving - this was introduced under the last government in reaction to nutters attacking researchers (all you get is a sanitised summary drafted by the researcher which often glosses over the details). But by anonymising, the nutter risk would be avoided - we aren't interested in discussing whether company A or Professor B are misguided, only whether the system should allow discussions of the trade-offs between research potential and suffering. The present blanket of secrecy just encourages wild speculation and thereby (we'd argue) damages the interests of research as well. Was this Labour's fault? Yes. Did I vote for it? Yes. Was I wrong? Yes. Has the current government fixed it? No, but in fairness, after lengthy hesitation they're consulting about it right now.

Apologies for length - it's a quiet morning and a few posts raised it so I thought a detailed response might be helpful.

Mick_Pork

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Pork, when the 'off' switch of a console is apparently a selling point there's something wrong with the console.

Yes, they made it part of the package instead of a stand alone peripheral, as I said.

Morris_Dancer said:

Microsoft retains the right to alter its terms, and that's assuming the system never gets hacked. Which brings me onto the online connectivity, namely if Microsoft has a problem at their end the Xbox One becomes an expensive brick.

Name me a corporation which doesn't keep that right? For that matter how many laptops and pads have a camera and microphone built in which are also vulnerable? Microsoft's problems are purely of their own making with PR blunders from the start and a misguided faith in a fairly pointless piece of hardware like Kinect as some kind of amazing feature.

The validity checks are a disaster waiting to happen. You are far from alone in thinking that is a big fat weak spot in Microsoft's entire online strategy. They have spent an incredible amount of money on new supposedly 'bombproof' infrastructure to support it but if it ever fails their console fails with it.

Morris_Dancer said:

I concur with you regarding the crapness of the 24 hour rule, but this is for every single game, whereas the online requirement varies for PC games (I believe, I'm not a PC gamer). Furthermore, PC games tend to be cheaper and come with the potential for modding.

It's not so much for every single game as it is for the system. The 360 was cracked fairly easily allowing piracy to eat into their and publishers profits. They clearly do not want a repeat of that though some regard it as inevitable. The rental and used games issue was always being pushed by the publishers more than the console makers. It's still up to them whether they make used games and rental possible in the end and it is very unlikely to be different on the PS4.

PC games are indeed cheaper mainly because you have the likes of Steam and other portals giving huge discounts that digital retail can facilitate so easily. If the consoles don't follow they will likely suffer since it's the very affordability of PC games that offsets their far higher problems with piracy and has seen more and more publishers moving to PC gaming.

Modding will come as will some other PC gaming staples like MOBAs and free to play transaction based games.

Charles

NickPalmer said:

My trip to Vietnam a couple of months ago was because the State authorities there use the Draize test. I persuaded them that it would be attractive to change,

As an aside, Vietnam is open to being a thought leader in the region. In my experience, it has been helpful to have the industry pushing as well. An example is the use of antibiotics in aquaculture - because of the increasing concern from EU consumers about antibiotics in fish and the practice of distributors returning fish with excessive minimum residue levels - indusry pushed hard for change. Partly as a result, the authorities have now approved pangasius vaccines for the first time

david_kendrick1

57% of people apparently think MPs should not have a second job. What proportion of the public think that MPs should be more 'in touch with people at work'?

Trying to ensure that politicians are as removed from the real world as possible, and then complaining that they are out of touch?

I'd go the other way. Until minster level, having a separate and distinct job (presumably part-time) should be seen as 'best practice' for all politicians.

Morris_Dancer

A console should work without needing continual support from the firm that made it. I could plug in my Megadrive right now and play Sonic the Hedgehog, but it seems that the Xbox One will likely be entirely useless shortly after its successor is released because I can't see Microsoft maintaining the support for an old system.

I've also read that some reckon the console itself could be illegal under EU law. I'd be surprised but amused if that were the case.

foxinsoxuk

NickPalmer said:

Responding to CD13, Charles and OldKingCole on animal tests: the position on cosmetics is that around 3-5% of new cosmetics each year use new ingredients - typically a new sunscreen that enables you to tan faster without increased risk of skin cancer.

It's generally agreed that safety testing is needed. However, in many cases animal tests are used that are no better or even inferior models of humans compared to alternatives - the reason they're still used in this case is that it's easier and cheaper to go on using what you know and are equipped for.

For example, we do need to test to see if shampoo will blind you if it gets in your eyes. The classic Draize test involves keeping rabbits clamped in frames for several days and forcing the shampoo into their eyes - as rabbits can't blink it away, you get a fairly clear result within 3 days. It's very unpleasant, as anyone who has had shampoo in their eyes for 10 seconds will confirm, never mind 3 days. It's banned in Europe but is common in other countries.

However, you get exactly the same quality result if you use the BCOP test on eyes taken from cows that have been slaughtered for meat. The cow doesn't mind as it's dead, and it doesn't blink either for the same reason. But it needs you to go to the trouble of training to use it and fixing up a deal with a slaughterhouse to transport the eyes over in cooled, secure containers, so it needs pressure from groups like mine to persuade you to bother. Or you could use a human cell culture, which actually gives more safety for humans (most domestic rabbits don't *really* use shampoo!) but is even more trouble and expense.

My trip to Vietnam a couple of months ago was because the State authorities there use the Draize test. I persuaded them that it would be attractive to change, since they would then be the leading labs in ASEAN using modern non-animal testing technology, and companies wanting to export to the EU (which now bans cosmetic imports tested on animals) would flock to give them contracts. They are now quite keen if the switch is funded by others, so the next job is to raise the money for the necessary equipment and training. My Chinese trip was about the same sort of things.

There's a discussion of the science generally here, which also discusses the sort of experiments in the UK which we'd argue are indefensible:

http://www.buav.org/humane-science/science-reports/

Essentially Cruelty Free International (for which I'm Policy Director) is an advocacy group for lab animals trying to prompt global reconsideration of whether each type of experiment is needed for cosmetics and household products like bleach. If we and others didn't do it, inertia would mean that countries kept on using the old methods long after better alternatives had appeared.

Domestically, the UK sister organisation the BUAV (I work for both - the BUAV covers animal experiments of all kinds) has as its central current proposal is that project licences (which detail what's done and what the hoped-for benefit are) should be published online by the Home Office, with all details of the people, location, companies and anything commercially confidential removed. We could then have a rational debate on whether potential result X justified suffering Y. At present it would be a criminal offence for the Home Office to disclose details of what it is approving - this was introduced under the last government in reaction to nutters attacking researchers (all you get is a sanitised summary drafted by the researcher which often glosses over the details). But by anonymising, the nutter risk would be avoided - we aren't interested in discussing whether company A or Professor B are misguided, only whether the system should allow discussions of the trade-offs between research potential and suffering. The present blanket of secrecy just encourages wild speculation and thereby (we'd argue) damages the interests of research as well. Was this Labour's fault? Yes. Did I vote for it? Yes. Was I wrong? Yes. Has the current government fixed it? No, but in fairness, after lengthy hesitation they're consulting about it right now.

Apologies for length - it's a quiet morning and a few posts raised it so I thought a detailed response might be helpful.

I have seen my fill of presentations of unethical medical experiments on animals. Apart trom the individual cruelty the most unethical part is often lack of scientific validity in the experimental design.

If an experiment cannot rigorously test the hypothesis even the most animal-comfort based experiment is unnessecary. Nothing scientific is more unethical than bad science.

I am glad that Nick is trying to get worldwide agreement on this. Tighter regulation in the developed world has led to off shoring of more dubious research to less regulated parts of the world. Rather like off shoring our CO2 production to China, it just makes feel smug without having done anything useful in the world.

CarlottaVance

Constable Crick on the case:

Met police chief Hogan-Howe on the rack over Plebgate leak

http://blogs.channel4.com/michael-crick-on-politics/met-police-chief-hogan-howe-on-the-rack-over-plebgate-leak/2536

AlastairMeeks

The Independent on Sunday has one of its pictorial front pages:

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/79796/the_independent_on_sunday_sunday_9th_june_2013.html

But I would be very disappointed with that biscuit selection if that is in fact what was served at the G8 Food Summit. I guess it's just a reflection of the budgets at the Independent.

Charles

antifrank said:

The Independent on Sunday has one of its pictorial front pages:

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/79796/the_independent_on_sunday_sunday_9th_june_2013.html

But I would be very disappointed with that biscuit selection if that is in fact what was served at the G8 Food Summit. I guess it's just a reflection of the budgets at the Independent.

KKR has the best biscuits in London, with Carlyle not far behind ;-)

AlastairMeeks

@Charles A good biscuit is very important reputationally. My own firm used to be very strong in that area but is sadly much weaker. A false economy, in my view.

Mick_Pork

Morris_Dancer said:

A console should work without needing continual support from the firm that made it.

That died as soon as the console makers went big on their online strategy and internet based delivery systems. The PS3 network was hit hard by hackers and had a huge PR problem on their hands as a result, nor were they alone.

Morris_Dancer said:

I could plug in my Megadrive right now and play Sonic the Hedgehog, but it seems that the Xbox One will likely be entirely useless shortly after its successor is released because I can't see Microsoft maintaining the support for an old system.

I beg to differ. The installed user base for the 360 and PS3 is truly gigantic and they have a far bigger problem actually getting publishers to commit to new consoles. That's a risk only offset right now by making cross platform releases for their old consoles as well. A risk that Nintendo is still on the wrong side of with very weak publisher support so far. The industry will likely support two big players in Sony and Microsoft for home consoles. The assumption is that Sony has the Japanese market pretty much to themselves while Microsoft is going big for the US leaving Europe and other territories up for grabs right now. Nintendo could be pushed to handheld only in a few years if they aren't careful and even that isn't a safe haven with iOS sales still on the rise.

Morris_Dancer said:

I've also read that some reckon the console itself could be illegal under EU law. I'd be surprised but amused if that were the case.

There was talk of the Kinect violating German privacy laws I think but that always seemed overblown and is likely to have been addressed with the recent clarification.

another_richard

AveryLP said:

Pray tell me, why is YouGov asking "who is to blame for the current state of the economy"?

Surely a more appropriate question today is "who should get the credit for the current recovery in the economy?".

The 'recovery' which is at a lower rate than what the government still assumes is the trend rate of growth ???

I'd be careful of boasting about that if I were you Avery.

Taking credit for declining living standards for the many while the rich are getting richer wont endear you to swing voters in marginal constituencies.

BTW any progress on your prediction as to when we get a month's trade surplus ?

Or here's another one - when do the FTSE100 and industrial production levels recover to what they were at the start of the millenium ?

And if they don't what's the justification for retail spending being any higher that it was at that point ?

AlastairMeeks

The person with most to smile about from today's front pages is Prince Harry. The Mail on Sunday's front page story could almost have been drafted by committee to show off all the positive sides of his public persona.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2337882/Harry-saved-gay-hate-attack-Prince-extraordinary-showdown-troops-threatened-gunner.html

I suppose it might even be a broadly true account as well.

RichardNabavi

david_kendrick1 said:

57% of people apparently think MPs should not have a second job. What proportion of the public think that MPs should be more 'in touch with people at work'? .

To be honest, I think if you asked a question about almost any aspect of MPs, you'd get strong support for the most unpleasant-sounding option: cut salary, restrict expenses even further, shorter parliamentary recesses, hang 'em up by their goolies.

It's regrettable, but I think that is the current feeling.

RichardNabavi

another_richard said:

Or here's another one - when do the FTSE100 and industrial production levels recover to what they were at the start of the millenium ?

And if they don't what's the justification for retail spending being any higher that it was at that point ?

Why on earth would you choose an index which is almost entirely unrelated to the UK economy, and which is dominated by a handful of international mining, oil, pharmaceutical and oil companies, as a measure of anything related to the UK? And if you did, why would you choose the short-lived peak of a massive international asset bubble as your comparison point?

Charles

antifrank said:

@Charles A good biscuit is very important reputationally. My own firm used to be very strong in that area but is sadly much weaker. A false economy, in my view.

Our firm has the same reputation for lunch...partners' lunch is an invitation not to turn down...

NickPalmer

Charles said:

NickPalmer said:

My trip to Vietnam a couple of months ago was because the State authorities there use the Draize test. I persuaded them that it would be attractive to change,

As an aside, Vietnam is open to being a thought leader in the region. In my experience, it has been helpful to have the industry pushing as well. An example is the use of antibiotics in aquaculture - because of the increasing concern from EU consumers about antibiotics in fish and the practice of distributors returning fish with excessive minimum residue levels - indusry pushed hard for change. Partly as a result, the authorities have now approved pangasius vaccines for the first time

Yes, we are on the same side as much of industry on this (having contradictory rules in Europe and Asia on animal tests is a real pain for them), and one of the possible sources of funding for the Vietnam project will we hope be companies. They would benefit by good PR for quite modest sums of money as well as making their own international work easier, and we'd be pleased to give them credit for it, so literally everyone would gain. If any of your contacts might be interested, please encourage them to get in touch.

Jonathan

antifrank said:

@Charles A good biscuit is very important reputationally. My own firm used to be very strong in that area but is sadly much weaker. A false economy, in my view.

Indeed, the first company I worked for had a cupboard of sheer awe and wonder. It contained every biscuit known to man from the humble Custard Cream to the Wagon Wheel and beyond. Each was available for the unit price from 2p upwards in a complex system of pricing that put the city to shame.

A simple pleasure, but hedonism nonetheless. Alas no more in this soulless age.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer

O/T
Al Arabiya English ‏@AlArabiya_Eng 16m

#BreakingNews: Protesters have been shot at outside the Iranian embassy in #Beirut, injuries reported

FluffyThoughts

Jonathan said:

antifrank said:

@Charles A good biscuit is very important reputationally. My own firm used to be very strong in that area but is sadly much weaker. A false economy, in my view.

Indeed, the first company I worked for had a cupboard of sheer awe and wonder. It contained every biscuit known to man from the humble Custard Cream to the Wagon Wheel and beyond. Each was available for the unit price from 2p upwards in a complex system of pricing that put the city to shame.

A simple pleasure, but hedonism nonetheless. Alas no more in this soulless age.

:whoosh...:

another_richard

RichardNabavi said:

another_richard said:

Or here's another one - when do the FTSE100 and industrial production levels recover to what they were at the start of the millenium ?

And if they don't what's the justification for retail spending being any higher that it was at that point ?

Why on earth would you choose an index which is almost entirely unrelated to the UK economy, and which is dominated by a handful of international mining, oil, pharmaceutical and oil companies, as a measure of anything related to the UK? And if you did, why would you choose the short-lived peak of a massive international asset bubble as your comparison point?

Because of the prominence which it is given.

Not to mention the effect it has on personal investments etc.

And while it is true that the turn of the millenium was the peak of the FTSE100 by comparison the DJIA is approximately 35% higher that it was at that point.

The twin peaks of the FTSE100 and UK industrial production which occurred at around the millenium represented, in my opinion, the all time peak of the UK economy. What has happened since has been nothing more than an orgy of government encouraged personal consumption funded by £1.5 trillion of borrowed money.

While that was bad enough the attempts by the establishment to keep the process continuing and not prepare for the inevitable social problems which its end will bring is yet another disgraceful concentration on short term advantage at the expense of greater long term damage.

HYUFD

This poll confirms that the 2015 election will be won or lost now on where the UKIP vote goes. If Cameron wins it back then the combined Tory/UKIP score is 44% compared to Labour's 40%, even if Cameron wins not one Labour voter or LD voter over from now until the election!

MonikerDiCanio

Even the French don't deserve this man

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22832471

AlastairMeeks

We had one of the most significant indications about British attitudes towards foreigners last night. When a troupe from Hungary can win a show called Britain's Got Talent, whatever the public's concerns might be about immigrants, they don't seem to revolve very much around them not being British.

David_Evershed

Can I just say what a good job The Screaming Eagle is doing while Mike Smithson is away on holiday.

edmundintokyo

HYUFD said:

This poll confirms that the 2015 election will be won or lost now on where the UKIP vote goes. If Cameron wins it back then the combined Tory/UKIP score is 44% compared to Labour's 40%, even if Cameron wins not one Labour voter or LD voter over from now until the election!

UKIP aren't all Tories on holiday, so the 44% number is irrelevant.

That said Cameron's best hope for a majority is that he gets the UKIPpers he's lost back, while the Labour defectors stick with UKIP.

David_Evershed

HYUFD said:

This poll confirms that the 2015 election will be won or lost now on where the UKIP vote goes. If Cameron wins it back then the combined Tory/UKIP score is 44% compared to Labour's 40%, even if Cameron wins not one Labour voter or LD voter over from now until the election!

Whilst UKIP has taken more support from Conservatives than other parties, not all of the UKIP support would return to its origins, and much of it would return to Labour, Lib Dem and Don't Care.

HYUFD

EdmundinTokyo - Yes, but a plurality at least are. Even if Cameron took back only half the UKIP vote that would take the Tories to 37%, exactly the same score Labour got in the last ComRes!

another_richard

HYUFD said:

This poll confirms that the 2015 election will be won or lost now on where the UKIP vote goes. If Cameron wins it back then the combined Tory/UKIP score is 44% compared to Labour's 40%, even if Cameron wins not one Labour voter or LD voter over from now until the election!

Which makes the volume of abuse hurled by the chumocracy at UKIP even more stupid.

Its effective, very possible, being to remind the ex-Labour UKIP supporters of how much they hate posh Tories and return to Labour while reminding ex-Conservative UKIP supporters as to how much the chumocracy despise them.

HYUFD

Ann Widdecombe in the Mail - 'Is there anyone in the party who can replace her (she thinks Theresa May has grown in stature but ‘can get on the wrong side of the party’)? ‘Maybe Nadine Dorries?’ she says, scrabbling to come up with someone memorable. Ann Widdecombe is big. It’s politics that got small.' -

isam

"leaving the European Union wont solve our problems, it will give us the ability to solve our problems"



Matthew Goodwin ‏@GoodwinMJ 1h

Here's Nigel Farage speech from yesterday's conference, discussing Euros, the main parties & Unite Against Fascism http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJdyEB7aUQo&feature=youtube_gdata_player …

HYUFD

Brooks Newmark backs arming the Syrian rebels despite having met Assad
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2338170/Brooks-Newmark-I-know-Assad--I-know-time-arm-Syrian-rebels-bring-says-Tory-MP-visited-dictators-house-tea.html

Tykejohnno

Fox Soccer's top five managers across Europe from the 2012/2013 season

Bradford city's Phil Parkinson makes top 5 ;-)

http://msn.foxsports.com/foxsoccer/world/lists/top-managers-from-2012-13-season-club-football-soccer-images-060613#tab=photo-title=Behind+the+wheel&photo=31796625

HYUFD

Osborne - If LDs don't cut welfare we'll cut education
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2338169/Osbornes-shock-demand-slash-1BILLION-schools-budget-despite-promise-protect-pupils-cuts.html

HYUFD

'Philistine' LDs press arts cuts
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/article1271207.ece

HYUFD

Meanwhile Britain commits to £375m more in aid
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/10108151/Britain-commits-to-375m-extra-in-aid.html

Neil

HYUFD said:

Osborne - If LDs don't cut welfare we'll cut education

But it's Osborne and Cameron who are blocking any cuts to the largest part of the welfare budget.

FluffyThoughts

Tykejohnno said:

Fox Soccer's top five managers across Europe from the 2012/2013 season

Bradford city's Phil Parkinson makes top 5 ;-)

http://msn.foxsports.com/foxsoccer/world/lists/top-managers-from-2012-13-season-club-football-soccer-images-060613#tab=photo-title=Behind+the+wheel&photo=31796625

Phil Parkinson: Charlton reject!* Next season should be the year of Chris Powell and Gus Poyet**...!



* I liked the guy. Sadly he followed on [effectively] from (and continued the trend of) Alan Pardew....
** Assuming that all that [Crystal Palace] shyte*** is forgotten....
*** Is the phrase "Crystal Palace Shyte" a truism? I know from experience that their ground is (and the Spannahs' manor ain't much cop either)....

edmundintokyo

HYUFD said:

EdmundinTokyo - Yes, but a plurality at least are. Even if Cameron took back only half the UKIP vote that would take the Tories to 37%, exactly the same score Labour got in the last ComRes!

Sure, but on reasonable assumptions if 7% are drifting back to Con then maybe 3% are drifting back to Lab.

HYUFD

Another Richard/Neil - Agree

kle4

'Fanciful' to think GCHQ is trying to circumvent UK law in its intelligence gathering, Foreign Sec William Hague says

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I've always felt intelligence gatherers' primary mode of operation in any country would be to gather as much data as they can get away with, try to justify it as being within existing laws, and try to change the law to make it ok if they stray too far.

Neil

HYUFD - has Balls given the answer to this, restricting WFA saved 100m and that's about 10% of the DCMS budget?

Job done! Thank you Ed Balls for sorting out the Coalition's problems.

FluffyThoughts

edmundintokyo said:

HYUFD said:

EdmundinTokyo - Yes, but a plurality at least are. Even if Cameron took back only half the UKIP vote that would take the Tories to 37%, exactly the same score Labour got in the last ComRes!

Sure, but on reasonable assumptions if 7% are drifting back to Con then maybe 3% are drifting back to Lab.

:yeah-but:

How much of the Labour vote will return to the losers Lib-Dhimmis? You're using a single-linear* equation to model a multiple-linear regression...!

:derh:

* Typed before engaging brain....**
** I really blame the keyboard I am using but, as it is Sunday, I thought I'd provide some comfort to the lessors amongst the congregation...!

foxinsoxuk

antifrank said:

The person with most to smile about from today's front pages is Prince Harry. The Mail on Sunday's front page story could almost have been drafted by committee to show off all the positive sides of his public persona.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2337882/Harry-saved-gay-hate-attack-Prince-extraordinary-showdown-troops-threatened-gunner.html

I suppose it might even be a broadly true account as well.

It shows how far that opinion has moved in this country, when the Daily Mail serialises a book about being gay in the army in a positive light.

I have no doubt that Harry is a very capable junior officer, and this shows an interesting side to him.

edmundintokyo

FluffyThoughts said:

edmundintokyo said:

HYUFD said:

EdmundinTokyo - Yes, but a plurality at least are. Even if Cameron took back only half the UKIP vote that would take the Tories to 37%, exactly the same score Labour got in the last ComRes!

Sure, but on reasonable assumptions if 7% are drifting back to Con then maybe 3% are drifting back to Lab.

:yeah-but:

How much of the Labour vote will return to the losers Lib-Dhimmis? You're using a single-regression equation to model a multiple-linear regression...!

:derh:

Obviously the UKIP vote isn't the only factor, but it's the one HYUFD was talking about.

Since you ask, I wouldn't expect much slippage back of the former LibDem vote that are currently polling for Lab, especially in Con/Lab marginals. They generally seem to be quite narked off about the coalition.

HYUFD

Neil - That is something I agree with Balls on!

davidthecon

Of the 650 people who are sitting in the HOC, (when they feel like it),!the vast majority fall into the catagories; out and out thieving scum, corrupt, stupid f**knuts who wouldn't be fit to clean toilets in the real world, hypocrites, a mix of all the above. Given our screwed up electoral system, most of them are also placed in their jobs by the monolithic pathetic excuses for political parties.

They are paid as though they are somehow proficient at what they are there to do, when in fact most of them are incapable or unwilling of understanding that they are there to represent their electors. And yet there are those who think they are underpaid and/or should have second jobs to keep them 'in touch' with the rest of us. Look, just bloody well look, at the state of the United Kingdom. Drowning in debt, plummeting down the world rankings in prosperity and education, generally a nation that is/has been so badly run that if was a company it would have gone to the wall.

People don't respect our politicians because they are crap. And they do a crap job, all the while linning their own pockets. I'm a Tory and I realise they are pretty useless, thankfully less useless than the alternatives, but it is not acceptable. Maybe for once the public know better than those engrossed in the political bubble. Democracy in the UK in it's present form is a busted flush, the spiral of decline will not be halted by the system in place now. We need an overhaul of this rotten corpse of a setup. The few politicians with any ability and honour from all sides of the political spectrum,such as Frank Field or David Davis, are shoved to the sidelines as they would threaten the cosy little clique that has embedded itself in perpetual power.

Anyone know when that rumored military coup in France, (as mentioned on here yesterday),is due by the way? I need cheering up.

HYUFD

Edmund in Tokyo - Well 40% Labour 37% Tory looks a lot closer than 37% Labour 30% Tory and once the Tories have made inroads into the UKIP vote they should be able to make some more!

HYUFD

According to Gallup we are still America's best friend (although I would have said Australia but that was not asked)

For each of the following countries, please say whether you consider it an ally of the United States, friendly, but not an ally, unfriendly, or an enemy of the United States.
Great Britain
Ally 66%
Friendly, but not an ally 25%
Unfriendly 2%
Enemy 1%
Canada
Ally 61%
Friendly, but not an ally 33%
Unfriendly 2%
Enemy 1%
Israel
Ally 46%
Friendly, but not an ally 32%
Unfriendly 10%
Enemy 6%
Japan
Ally 44%
Friendly, but not an ally 40%
Unfriendly 7%
Enemy 3%
Mexico
Ally 31%
Friendly, but not an ally 47%
Unfriendly 15%
Enemy 4%
India
Ally 25%
Friendly, but not an ally 53%
Unfriendly 10%
Enemy 3%
Saudi Arabia
Ally 12%
Friendly, but not an ally 37%
Unfriendly 26%
Enemy 16%
China
Ally 11%
Friendly, but not an ally 44%
Unfriendly 26%
Enemy 14%
Russia
Ally 11%
Friendly, but not an ally 41%
Unfriendly 30%
Enemy 12%
Egypt
Ally 11%
Friendly, but not an ally 39%
Unfriendly 28%
Enemy 11%
Pakistan
Ally 4%
Friendly, but not an ally 18%
Unfriendly 42%
Enemy 28%
Iraq
Ally 4%
Friendly, but not an ally 17%
Unfriendly 40%
Enemy 35%
North Korea
Ally 3%
Friendly, but not an ally 7%
Unfriendly 26%
Enemy 58%
Iran
Ally 2%
Friendly, but not an ally 8%
Unfriendly 34%
Enemy 51%

foxinsoxuk

When asked why we need a house of Lords, we are told that we need a revising chamber.

Why not just pass properly written and thought through legislation in the first place?

I agree with davidthecon. Most of our politicians are crap. Ed and Dave are also, but it is astonishing that they are the best of the bunch.

davidthecon said:

Of the 650 people who are sitting in the HOC, (when they feel like it),!the vast majority fall into the catagories; out and out thieving scum, corrupt, stupid f**knuts who wouldn't be fit to clean toilets in the real world, hypocrites, a mix of all the above. Given our screwed up electoral system, most of them are also placed in their jobs by the monolithic pathetic excuses for political parties.

They are paid as though they are somehow proficient at what they are there to do, when in fact most of them are incapable or unwilling of understanding that they are there to represent their electors. And yet there are those who think they are underpaid and/or should have second jobs to keep them 'in touch' with the rest of us. Look, just bloody well look, at the state of the United Kingdom. Drowning in debt, plummeting down the world rankings in prosperity and education, generally a nation that is/has been so badly run that if was a company it would have gone to the wall.

People don't respect our politicians because they are crap. And they do a crap job, all the while linning their own pockets. I'm a Tory and I realise they are pretty useless, thankfully less useless than the alternatives, but it is not acceptable. Maybe for once the public know better than those engrossed in the political bubble. Democracy in the UK in it's present form is a busted flush, the spiral of decline will not be halted by the system in place now. We need an overhaul of this rotten corpse of a setup. The few politicians with any ability and honour from all sides of the political spectrum,such as Frank Field or David Davis, are shoved to the sidelines as they would threaten the cosy little clique that has embedded itself in perpetual power.

Anyone know when that rumored military coup in France, (as mentioned on here yesterday),is due by the way? I need cheering up.

CarlottaVance

And today's hostage to fortune:

Euro crisis is over, says France's Francois Hollande

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22832471

foxinsoxuk

The 1% who think Canada is the enemy of the USA and 3% who think North Korea an ally must be seriously weird or ill informed!

HYUFD said:

According to Gallup we are still America's best friend (although I would have said Australia but that was not asked)

For each of the following countries, please say whether you consider it an ally of the United States, friendly, but not an ally, unfriendly, or an enemy of the United States.
Great Britain
Ally 66%
Friendly, but not an ally 25%
Unfriendly 2%
Enemy 1%
Canada
Ally 61%
Friendly, but not an ally 33%
Unfriendly 2%
Enemy 1%
Israel
Ally 46%
Friendly, but not an ally 32%
Unfriendly 10%
Enemy 6%
Japan
Ally 44%
Friendly, but not an ally 40%
Unfriendly 7%
Enemy 3%
Mexico
Ally 31%
Friendly, but not an ally 47%
Unfriendly 15%
Enemy 4%
India
Ally 25%
Friendly, but not an ally 53%
Unfriendly 10%
Enemy 3%
Saudi Arabia
Ally 12%
Friendly, but not an ally 37%
Unfriendly 26%
Enemy 16%
China
Ally 11%
Friendly, but not an ally 44%
Unfriendly 26%
Enemy 14%
Russia
Ally 11%
Friendly, but not an ally 41%
Unfriendly 30%
Enemy 12%
Egypt
Ally 11%
Friendly, but not an ally 39%
Unfriendly 28%
Enemy 11%
Pakistan
Ally 4%
Friendly, but not an ally 18%
Unfriendly 42%
Enemy 28%
Iraq
Ally 4%
Friendly, but not an ally 17%
Unfriendly 40%
Enemy 35%
North Korea
Ally 3%
Friendly, but not an ally 7%
Unfriendly 26%
Enemy 58%
Iran
Ally 2%
Friendly, but not an ally 8%
Unfriendly 34%
Enemy 51%

davidthecon

HYUFD said:

According to Gallup we are still America's best friend (although I would have said Australia but that was not asked)

For each of the following countries, please say whether you consider it an ally of the United States, friendly, but not an ally, unfriendly, or an enemy of the United States.
Great Britain
Ally 66%
Friendly, but not an ally 25%
Unfriendly 2%
Enemy 1%
Canada
Ally 61%
Friendly, but not an ally 33%
Unfriendly 2%
Enemy 1%
Israel
Ally 46%
Friendly, but not an ally 32%
Unfriendly 10%
Enemy 6%
Japan
Ally 44%
Friendly, but not an ally 40%
Unfriendly 7%
Enemy 3%
Mexico
Ally 31%
Friendly, but not an ally 47%
Unfriendly 15%
Enemy 4%
India
Ally 25%
Friendly, but not an ally 53%
Unfriendly 10%
Enemy 3%
Saudi Arabia
Ally 12%
Friendly, but not an ally 37%
Unfriendly 26%
Enemy 16%
China
Ally 11%
Friendly, but not an ally 44%
Unfriendly 26%
Enemy 14%
Russia
Ally 11%
Friendly, but not an ally 41%
Unfriendly 30%
Enemy 12%
Egypt
Ally 11%
Friendly, but not an ally 39%
Unfriendly 28%
Enemy 11%
Pakistan
Ally 4%
Friendly, but not an ally 18%
Unfriendly 42%
Enemy 28%
Iraq
Ally 4%
Friendly, but not an ally 17%
Unfriendly 40%
Enemy 35%
North Korea
Ally 3%
Friendly, but not an ally 7%
Unfriendly 26%
Enemy 58%
Iran
Ally 2%
Friendly, but not an ally 8%
Unfriendly 34%
Enemy 51%

7% say North Korea is friendly???!!! That's a lot of nutters.

3% say North Korea is an ally!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What the F*************.........????

FluffyThoughts

HYUFD said:

According to Gallup we are still America's best friend (although I would have said Australia but that was not asked)

Australia does not look to "Mother-England"; their military is moving towards an adjunct of the US-Marines. If you thought we English overspend on defence capability then just see what they wish to spend on a few destroyers and a dozen submarines.

Considering the fact of their nation's creation; their belief in untold wealth from mineral resources; and the fact that they a led by a useless, Welsh-born socialist, I'd profer that we have little in-common with Oz. Apart from Woomera, FNDP and ABCA - all of which are multi-party agreements - why should we couple ourselves to a nation with a grievence dating back centuries...?

AlastairMeeks

Most of our politicians are intelligent, thoughtful and well-meaning.

They are also, almost without exception, ineffectual.

edmundintokyo

davidthecon said:

7% say North Korea is friendly???!!! That's a lot of nutters.

3% say North Korea is an ally!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What the F*************.........????

TBF there are two different Koreas right next to each other, it's quite hard to keep track of which is which unless you pay a bit of attention to the news.

edmundintokyo

HYUFD said:

Edmund in Tokyo - Well 40% Labour 37% Tory looks a lot closer than 37% Labour 30% Tory and once the Tories have made inroads into the UKIP vote they should be able to make some more!

They'd be doing well to get 7% out of 14%, but yeah, obviously most people aren't expecting anything like Lab 39.75% vs Con 29.75% in 2015.

davidthecon

antifrank said:

Most of our politicians are intelligent, thoughtful and well-meaning.

They are also, almost without exception, ineffectual.

Coming from the man who blows the trumpet for the legal profession? Luckily for you lot Hell will be overflowing with politicians so there won't be room for all the lawyers.

FluffyThoughts

antifrank said:

Most of our politicians are intelligent, thoughtful and well-meaning.

They are also, almost without exception, ineffectual.

And too many have studied Law.

:off-to-buy-monkee-nuts-and-a-stewie-griffin-monkee-nut-machine-to-throw-at-blogsites:

[A.k.a.: Pub!]

HYUFD

Foxinsoxuk/DavidtheCon - A descendant of an 1812 war veteran? Kim Jong Un's seventh cousin?

HYUFD

FluffyThoughts - Australia naturally identifies with the US, and is the only nation that has fought with it in every major war from the twentieth century, the world wars, Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan and Iraq. New Zealand on the other hand looks more to the UK, and on occasion can tend to the UK snobbish stereotype of OZ as a nation of convicts!

isam

A fire overnight at an Islamic boarding school in south east London is being treated as suspicious by police.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-22831882

davidthecon

edmundintokyo said:

davidthecon said:

7% say North Korea is friendly???!!! That's a lot of nutters.

3% say North Korea is an ally!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What the F*************.........????

TBF there are two different Koreas right next to each other, it's quite hard to keep track of which is which unless you pay a bit of attention to the news.

Geography classes in the US leave something to be desired. I'm scared sh*tless that one of the 1% who think Britain is an enemy gets voted in as President!

There is probably someone in that sample that thinks both North Korea AND Iran are allies of the US!

HYUFD

FluffyThoughts - Well what do you expect legislators to study, PPE?

HYUFD

EdinTokyo - Indeed, which reinforces my original point

isam

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 2h

And the moment Alex Jones knew he was no longer on air he stopped. All an act. #bbcsp.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22832994

AlastairMeeks

There are far too many lawyers in the Houses of Parliament. While it is good to have some lawyers as legislators to have an insight into what is possible under the law now, what we most need in legislators is the ability to see how things could be. Too many of our legislators lack either vision or the courage to take the stances required to enable that vision to come about.

HYUFD

Fluffy - Gillard may not be there much longer, ABC news Australia is reporting today she has lost significant caucus support and Rudd is now considered the only alternative http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-09/julia-gillard-loses-significant-support-in-caucus/4742626

peter_from_putney

Posts on PB2 re today's F1 Canadian Grand Prix don't appear to be working, perhaps the Moderator has frozen further posts on account of the ridiculous amount of spamming taking place, rendering it virtually unreadable. So here goes on PB1 with my two penn'orth:

Unless Valterri Bottas' third place on the grid is a complete fluke, then Betfair's price of 2.02 (equivalent to just under evens net of 5% comm'n) for him to finish in the points, i.e. top 10, looks quite attractive.
Have Williams finally got their act together? This race could provide the answer.

edmundintokyo

HYUFD said:

Fluffy - Gillard may not be there much longer, ABC news Australia is reporting today she has lost significant caucus support and Rudd is now considered the only alternative http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-09/julia-gillard-loses-significant-support-in-caucus/4742626

I liked this quote:

"It's like the Titanic - we're in the final scenes. Third class has realised the doors are locked and they're not getting out and first class are running around looking for a dress to put on," the MP, a key supporter of Mr Rudd, told ABC News Online.

HYUFD

EdinTokyo - Indeed, Rudd would at least deliver a better base for someone like Shorten to take over and build on, some polls have even shown Rudd would beat Abbott, which would be a political comeback and a half, even beating Howard's 'greatest comeback since Lazarus!'

Scott_P

@Coral: After a rush of bets in the last 24 hours, we've suspended betting on the next Doctor Who. Looks like Rory Kinnear is set to land the role.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Putney, the F1 articles are being relocated, at least temporarily, to http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/ to evade the excessive levels of spam on pb2.

I'm not so sure about backing Bottas, at those odds. Hulkenberg went from 1st to 8th at Interlagos in 2010. You might want to check the weather. If it's soggy he may be able to hold onto points, if it's dry he may struggle a bit.

TOPPING

30:40:14 = Cons 38 (60% x 14) come 2015. It's how many Lab=>LD drifters that will determine the final outcome.

Good reason for Cons to be optimistic.

PBModerator

test

old_labour

I'll second that.

Carola said:

By the way, thanks TSE for keeping PB going in admirable style. A lengthy stint!

Morris_Dancer

Indeed, Mr. Eagles has done a splendid job.

foxinsoxuk

old_labour said:

I'll second that.

Carola said:

By the way, thanks TSE for keeping PB going in admirable style. A lengthy stint!

Yes. Well done!

TOPPING

btw does it seem that Nadal has been coached on his ticks and that the cameras are giving him some space off-camera for some of them?

Scott_P

@IanDunt: RT @bbcnickrobinson: Clarity on spending from @edballsmp -Labour "will spend the money which we inherit, no more" <disasterous