Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Operation Save Dave is unlikely to succeed

1235»

Comments

  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    PClipp said:

    Cameron's supposed "metropolitan morality" works fine and dandy down here in rural Devon.

    People down here think that Ed Miliband and his Labour Party fecking over the economy again is a rather more important determinant of where their cross goes this election than whether Brian can marry Brian. I can honestly say that no-one has raised gay marriage on the doorstep. Not one.

    Well, Mr Mark, may I say that I am not surprised? If you go canvassing in the South Hams, most of the people you meet will be wealthy metropolitan types, who are concerned only about their own wealth. Nobody else can afford to live there.
    Nah - it's the rough bits of Torquay for me!
    Hmmm

    you appear to be heading back to the dockside !
  • Options
    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015

    A 'trade deal' which would involve agreeing to single market rules and free movement of labour and membership of Schengen.

    Like Mexico, South Korea, Iceland and South Africa, all well known members of the Schengen Agreement.

    This is the some nonsense that Dair is trying to sell. Check out

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

    and then consider how many of those countries pay EU membership fees, or are bound by Free movement of labour or are in Schengen.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Alanbrooke
    As long as he doesn't dock his backside? (might lose some of the more "conservative" voters)
    :)
  • Options
    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Indigo said:

    A 'trade deal' which would involve agreeing to single market rules and free movement of labour and membership of Schengen.

    Like Mexico, South Korea, Iceland and South Africa, all well known members of the Schengen Agreement.

    This is the some nonsense that Dair is trying to sell. Check out

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

    and then consider how many of those countries pay EU membership fees, or are bound by Free movement of labour or are in Schengen.
    How many are in Europe? It is only wishful thinking thats says that if we walk out then Europe would give us a free lunch.
    But why do people protest so much. Come 2017 we will get a referendum and the whole issue can be argued out - if we get a tory government.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,610
    Speedy said:

    EPG said:

    Given the UK would become the EU's largest external export market, I would expect the UK to get far better terms than the likes of Mexico. I suppose all 190 or so nations (including the USA, Canada, Australia, South Africa, South Korea, Japan etc etc) around the world who exist in the economic and sovereign manner UKIP aspire to are run by 'fringe nationalists groups' with 'paranoid persecution complexes'?

    So Ukip want Norway-style "government by fax machine"? Taking all those European regulations about bendy bananas you don't like, but just giving up your say on them?

    So the only point of Ukip is not about European trade at all, but to kick out the foreigners?
    Who said anything about Norway? Do stop trying to peddle your deranged propaganda. Nobody believes it anymore.

    UKIP have made it clear that they will not seek an EEA or EFTA arrangement with the EU. What they would do is negotiate a unilateral agreement based on the volumes of trade we do with the EU at the time of negotiation.

    Furthermore, UKIP's motivations are more based on being free to do business with the rest of the world on terms that are tailored as best as possible to fit the needs of the UK (difficult when trying to do the same for 28 other countries as well) than it is about trade with Europe. The issue of immigration is simply an issue of good government (as practiced by almost 200 nations around the world but not the UK and the rest of the EU).

    You do realise there is a world beyond the EU or is it you have now been that brainwashed that you only view things through the myopic prism of Brussels?
    I prefer joining NAFTA than EFTA.
    We can absorb the EU into the Commonwealth, as English is an official language and 51% of EU citizens have some understanding of the English language :)
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages_of_the_European_Union
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Norwich fans giving each other the high six.

    The Norwich Family remains the best football chant in the UK.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,610
    Oh almost forgot, didn't post any graphs this morning!

    For those wot missed it earlier:

    Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week (ELBOW) for w/e 1st March is as follows - 11 polls, sample 12,696:

    Lab 33.5 (+0.4)
    Con 32.8 (+0.7)
    UKIP 14.3 (-0.6)
    LD 7.8 (-0.2)
    Grn 6.1 (-0.4)

    Lab lead 0.7 (-0.3)

    * Second lowest Labour lead since ELBOW inception in August! Lowest Labour lead of 2015 so far and lowest since Nov.
    * Lowest Green score of 2015 so far
    * UKIP second lowest score of 2015 so far
    * LibDem lead over the Greens highest since mid-December
    * Two major parties the only parties to go up this week. All three lesser parties down.


    Just for a bit of fun:

    YouGov only (five polls):

    Con 33.5 (!)
    Lab 33.4
    UKIP 13.7
    LD 7.4
    Grn 6.2

    And non-YouGovs only (six polls):

    Lab 33.6
    Con 31.9
    UKIP 14.9
    LD 8.3
    Grn 5.9
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108


    But if we (and that means it is in the 'UK's control') do not put additional duty on those imports it will have no impact at all (and given the EU is a net exporter to us they are unlikely to put duties on our exports under such circumstances). Of course if a post withdrawal Tory or any other government start putting additional duty on imports then that would be for them to answer for.

    As it is in the interest of both parties go continue trading as seemlessly as possible nobody will be cut adrift. You should really stop being so hysterical about these things. The world will not end if we withdraw from the EU.

    The fantasy world you inhabit really does get more and more farcical. The rUK would have no negotiating position, lacking natural resources, food (Ireland would have to kow tow to their treaty obligations) and facing massive tariffs on the import of necessities, the impact on the economy would have the UK at door of the IMF within weeks.

    That's your core problem, like most Kippers you have an exaggerated and unrealistic idea of the UK's place in the world. The most basic tenets of economics and trade completely elude your mindset because you think trading with the UK on anything other than 100% the EU's own terms would be desirable for the EU.

    The rUK would have nothing the EU would want. Not only that it DOES HAVE things the EU DOES want. Such as the financial services industry which operate on a Europe wide basis. And it would ensure that every single bank serious about doing business with the EU would have moved its operations to Edinburgh, Dublin or Frankfurt by the time the rUK ceded from the EU.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,610
    Labour leads in ELBOW since August: Week-ending 1st March = 0.7%, second lowest lead since ELBOW inception in August, and lowest this year.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/572033068443275264
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,610
    LibDems v. Greens in ELBOW since August, week-ending 1st March LibDem lead = 1.7%, biggest lead over Greens since mid-December.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/572043434179084288
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,610
    Conservatives v. UKIP in ELBOW since August, week-ending 1st March 2015

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/572046854961160192
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Indigo said:

    A 'trade deal' which would involve agreeing to single market rules and free movement of labour and membership of Schengen.

    Like Mexico, South Korea, Iceland and South Africa, all well known members of the Schengen Agreement.

    This is the some nonsense that Dair is trying to sell. Check out

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

    and then consider how many of those countries pay EU membership fees, or are bound by Free movement of labour or are in Schengen.
    All the ones in Europe. With an exception for Schengen being delayed for candidate countries outside the EEA as it would not be beneficial to the EU to allow free movement (because it would favour the smaller country).

    The UK would have the same terms of trade as the EEA, most likely with Schengen. There is a possiblity that the EU analytics will indicate that all those Brits living and working abroad are less desirable than a free Labour market.

    But if it does, good luck dealing with 1m pensioners turning up (impoverished because their Spanish property is near worthless now) wanting health care, social care etc. Plus another 1.5m being repatriated from working in elsewhere in the EU.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Dair
    I am sure the Americans would "lease lend" us ships and supplies, at the usual rates for a European conflict
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,610
    And for the month of February - 43 polls, total sample 49,356:

    (changes from all-January)

    Lab 33.5 (+0.2)
    Con 32.4 (+0.3)
    UKIP 14.5 (-0.7)
    LD 7.7 (+0.4)
    Grn 6.3 (-0.2)

    Lab lead 1.1 (nc)

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/572053013654847488
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
  • Options
    DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    I am sure the Americans would "lease lend" us ships and supplies, at the usual rates for a European conflict

    Does the UK have sufficient wealth to send to the US in return, every year for 50 years as it did for lend lease? I think the American's already milked the UK dry.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited March 2015
    Just a thought.
    If we leave Europe, and elope with America (who want us "in"), are we just revisiting a past abusive partnership?
    Edit: Britannia, the battered ex?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,380
    The Green vote seems to be softening a bit in my marginal (to Labour) - the Bennett interview hasn't put them off, but people are aware of the tactical situation, and the Green voters seem more anti-Tory than anyone in the country. UKIP are also softening a bit, to the benefit of both major parties. Otherwise no noticeable changes. We've talked to over 10% of the voters since the New Year, so we feel we're fairly clear what's happening (=not much, frankly).
  • Options
    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Speedy said:

    EPG said:

    ....

    So Ukip want Norway-style "government by fax machine"? Taking all those European regulations about bendy bananas you don't like, but just giving up your say on them?

    So the only point of Ukip is not about European trade at all, but to kick out the foreigners?
    Who said anything about Norway? Do stop trying to peddle your deranged propaganda. Nobody believes it anymore.

    UKIP have made it clear that they will not seek an EEA or EFTA arrangement with the EU. What they would do is negotiate a unilateral agreement based on the volumes of trade we do with the EU at the time of negotiation.

    Furthermore, UKIP's motivations are more based on being free to do business with the rest of the world on terms that are tailored as best as possible to fit the needs of the UK (difficult when trying to do the same for 28 other countries as well) than it is about trade with Europe. The issue of immigration is simply an issue of good government (as practiced by almost 200 nations around the world but not the UK and the rest of the EU).

    You do realise there is a world beyond the EU or is it you have now been that brainwashed that you only view things through the myopic prism of Brussels?
    I prefer joining NAFTA than EFTA.
    ''In recent years, representatives from 34 countries have been working to expand the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to Central America, South America and the Caribbean. The Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) is another example of the free-market fundamentalism that has created a global race-to-the-bottom that threatens the environment, families' livelihoods, human rights, and democracy.''
    http://www.globalexchange.org/resources/FTAA/oppose
    This of course could be a load of cobblers. But it highlights the lack of a free lunch.
    Lets be clear there is no such thing as a 'free trade agreement'. They all, including the EU single market, cover things more than tariffs. They have to since you are letting people into your markets.
    For instance
    http://www.straight.com/food/813541/california-wine-producers-claim-bc-liquor-reforms-violate-nafta-gatt-and-eu-canada-agreement
    ''California wine producers claim B.C. liquor reforms violate NAFTA, GATT, and EU-Canada Agreement''

    You want more of this in spades with NAFTA - and then FTAA ? And movement of Labour is inevitable with NAFTA...
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324162304578302670469752176
    So welcome to all those Mexican plumbers.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    I am sure the Americans would "lease lend" us ships and supplies, at the usual rates for a European conflict

    Does the UK have sufficient wealth to send to the US in return, every year for 50 years as it did for lend lease? I think the American's already milked the UK dry.
    Wolfe McDair - you should perhaps study the history of Britain over the last 1000 years or so. Our free thinking, throwing off the shackles of religious straightjacketing and entrepreneurial spirit has served us well and enabled us to ride the highs and lows.

    Scotland used to be at the forefront of this - unfortunately the current pygmies running Holyrood seem to insist on the failed statist approaches that have been unsuccessful when tried elsewhere,

    I find your lack of faith in rUk amusing and very easy to dismiss as the envious bile of the referendum loser.
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Dair
    The loan after the war was even funnier.....for some.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-American_loan
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,610
    TGOHF said:
    Can't speak for the graph, as it's not my graphic, but I do know it gets updated monthly.

    BTW, guess who's been adding most of the polls to the table, lately?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election&action=history
  • Options
    TGOHF said:
    Why have you run out of material to 'play' with?
  • Options
    New Thread
  • Options
    Dair said:


    But if we (and that means it is in the 'UK's control') do not put additional duty on those imports it will have no impact at all (and given the EU is a net exporter to us they are unlikely to put duties on our exports under such circumstances). Of course if a post withdrawal Tory or any other government start putting additional duty on imports then that would be for them to answer for.

    As it is in the interest of both parties go continue trading as seemlessly as possible nobody will be cut adrift. You should really stop being so hysterical about these things. The world will not end if we withdraw from the EU.

    The fantasy world you inhabit really does get more and more farcical. The rUK would have no negotiating position, lacking natural resources, food (Ireland would have to kow tow to their treaty obligations) and facing massive tariffs on the import of necessities, the impact on the economy would have the UK at door of the IMF within weeks.

    That's your core problem, like most Kippers you have an exaggerated and unrealistic idea of the UK's place in the world. The most basic tenets of economics and trade completely elude your mindset because you think trading with the UK on anything other than 100% the EU's own terms would be desirable for the EU.

    The rUK would have nothing the EU would want. Not only that it DOES HAVE things the EU DOES want. Such as the financial services industry which operate on a Europe wide basis. And it would ensure that every single bank serious about doing business with the EU would have moved its operations to Edinburgh, Dublin or Frankfurt by the time the rUK ceded from the EU.
    ROFLMFAO

    So lets get this right the EU is going to put tariffs on its exports to the rUK making them less competitive forcing us to look elsewhere to supply such goods potentially putting millions of EU workers out of work. Wow I wish all political parties were as innovative in their economic policies. No wonder you want rUK to stay in the EU in order to take all the unemployed workers the SNP are going to price out of business! Tell me how much will Scotland put on the price of all that energy you are going to sell us? Will you double the price of Whisky to the rUK too? Oh my god thist is priceless!

    Don't you understand the most basic concepts of international trade. it is the receiving nation that imposes the tariffs on goods to make their own industries competitive. That's why its called protectionism. You really are an idiot!
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    Dair said:


    But if we (and that means it is in the 'UK's control') do not put additional duty on those imports it will have no impact at all (and given the EU is a net exporter to us they are unlikely to put duties on our exports under such circumstances). Of course if a post withdrawal Tory or any other government start putting additional duty on imports then that would be for them to answer for.

    As it is in the interest of both parties go continue trading as seemlessly as possible nobody will be cut adrift. You should really stop being so hysterical about these things. The world will not end if we withdraw from the EU.

    The fantasy world you inhabit really does get more and more farcical. The rUK would have no negotiating position, lacking natural resources, food (Ireland would have to kow tow to their treaty obligations) and facing massive tariffs on the import of necessities, the impact on the economy would have the UK at door of the IMF within weeks.

    That's your core problem, like most Kippers you have an exaggerated and unrealistic idea of the UK's place in the world. The most basic tenets of economics and trade completely elude your mindset because you think trading with the UK on anything other than 100% the EU's own terms would be desirable for the EU.

    The rUK would have nothing the EU would want. Not only that it DOES HAVE things the EU DOES want. Such as the financial services industry which operate on a Europe wide basis. And it would ensure that every single bank serious about doing business with the EU would have moved its operations to Edinburgh, Dublin or Frankfurt by the time the rUK ceded from the EU.
    Absolute rubbish from start to finish. Your blind Euro fanaticism and the fact you don't have the first idea about trade with the EU - as you have shown time and time again on here leafs you to make these outlandish and ridiculous comments that have absolutely no basis in fact.
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048

    MP SE... ''You are also aware that the Lisbon Treaty requires the EU to enter into a trade agreement with any country which leaves the EU?''

    A 'trade deal' which would involve agreeing to single market rules and free movement of labour and membership of Schengen.

    It doesn't mean anything of the sort. Show me where the EU have tried to impose such terms on a nation that has not indicated at some point a desire to join the EU?

    Again and again you keep putting forward these absurd strawmen which bare no relationship with what the reality of the negotiations will be.
    Normal Euro fanatic nonsense. When the facts don't support your beliefs just make stuff up.
This discussion has been closed.