Gone with the 9/2 Conservative minority, thanks TSE
I cannot see Labour gaining more than fifty seats in England and Wales, and most likely fewer. If Scotland goes SNP as expected, then the Tories will be the largest party by circa 25 seats.
In those circumstances an attempt at minority government would be a reasonable approach. 9/2 seems to be quite good odds.
"Seems" is the correct word.
However on closer inspection a minority government really is a very narrow band given the most likely scenarios. With SF abstention a majority is +/- 1 seat at 323.
A Con minority is the narrower band with only the DUP and possibly Ukip providing supply and confidence with their 10-15 seats. The viable Con band would appear to be 310-325.
For Labour a wider band is possible given the stated SNP position and their higher projected total. Labour on 280-325 accordingly. That said some SLAB MP's are extremely hostile to any SNP arrangement.
I doubt the LibDems will opt for supply and confidence - All the blame and none of the power. It's Coalition or bust for them.
Good point that the band for Lab minority is wider. But on the other hand a former PB TOTY whose name has slipped my mind has occasionally pointed out that "Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister"
Cameron's position on the EU and the farce of renegotiation is as dishonest as he is. Still no answer on what he wants to renegotiate. Because this isn't about the UKs strategic position in the world, it is about the Tories' strategic position versus a largely reviled rightwing splinter group. Shameful. How dare Tories attempt to paint Miliband as opportunistic on anything when their own weak and embattled leader is the most shameless in selling out Britain's national in increasingly desperate attempts to shore up his crumbling position.
A torrid, pitiful PM.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
Charles - the UK has been a lot of things for all your life. And you've never had a say on them. Driving on the left. Using decimal currency. Most people don't obsess about these things.
Po-faced people vote Labour, sticklers for the rules support the Tories and SNP voters are seeking a laugh. Those caricatures might seem harsh but analysis suggests there could be some truth to political stereotypes.
It shows that those who value tolerance of others least are attracted to Ukip while the least anxious to be polite will look to the Green Party. And after five bruising years in coalition, those who support the Liberal Democrats think life is not fair.
More interesting, especially for Indigo and other Kippers : -
"When asked to choose three policies they would like to see in manifestos, from a longer list, only one in four voters overall – and only a third of Tories – singled out an EU referendum as a top priority."
That's hardly news (except you deciding I am a kipper for some reason), the public hold inconsistent views, they want all sorts of things which are inconsistent with EU membership, but don't see leaving the EU as an important consideration. But then the public also want to pay less taxes, have less cuts and want an increase in public services spending, so we cant expect too much in the way of coherence.
I may've sussed the YouGov lack of variation issue.
Just did my second VI in 3 days. Only done 2 in my life. What happens is you tick your voting intention 2 stager then get a survey on a stack of other stuff. Both times same thing's happened. YG say they last 10 to 15 minutes. You don't just get a GE poll.
Bingo. So YG have 300k registered for surveys but how many'll really be arsed to do them when it involves load of q's some of which are a pain in the butt? Bugger all's the answer. Bet you the actual pool of respondents for their polls is less than 3k - the same 3000 people answering the same VI opinion poll day after day [well 5 in 7]. Also a very very narrow demographic as a result.
YG'll deny this til they're bright blue in the cheeks but bet you a tiny tiny fraction of registerereds are the ones answering the poll: same old people, same old result, minimal variation.
I've just done my fifth VI for YouGov in about three weeks. I'm 0.1% of the survey and I switch between Labour and LibDem depending how I feel.
Cameron's position on the EU and the farce of renegotiation is as dishonest as he is. Still no answer on what he wants to renegotiate. Because this isn't about the UKs strategic position in the world, it is about the Tories' strategic position versus a largely reviled rightwing splinter group. Shameful. How dare Tories attempt to paint Miliband as opportunistic on anything when their own weak and embattled leader is the most shameless in selling out Britain's national in increasingly desperate attempts to shore up his crumbling position.
A torrid, pitiful PM.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
Charles - the UK has been a lot of things for all your life. And you've never had a say on them. Driving on the left. Using decimal currency. Most people don't obsess about these things.
Po-faced people vote Labour, sticklers for the rules support the Tories and SNP voters are seeking a laugh. Those caricatures might seem harsh but analysis suggests there could be some truth to political stereotypes.
It shows that those who value tolerance of others least are attracted to Ukip while the least anxious to be polite will look to the Green Party. And after five bruising years in coalition, those who support the Liberal Democrats think life is not fair.
More interesting, especially for Indigo and other Kippers : -
"When asked to choose three policies they would like to see in manifestos, from a longer list, only one in four voters overall – and only a third of Tories – singled out an EU referendum as a top priority."
That's hardly news (except you deciding I am a kipper for some reason), the public hold inconsistent views, they want all sorts of things which are inconsistent with EU membership, but don't see leaving the EU as an important consideration. But then the public also want to pay less taxes, have less cuts and want an increase in public services spending, so we cant expect too much in the way of coherence.
And that is why we vote for politicians, not policies.
Gone with the 9/2 Conservative minority, thanks TSE
I cannot see Labour gaining more than fifty seats in England and Wales, and most likely fewer. If Scotland goes SNP as expected, then the Tories will be the largest party by circa 25 seats.
In those circumstances an attempt at minority government would be a reasonable approach. 9/2 seems to be quite good odds.
"Seems" is the correct word.
However on closer inspection a minority government really is a very narrow band given the most likely scenarios. With SF abstention a majority is +/- 1 seat at 323.
A Con minority is the narrower band with only the DUP and possibly Ukip providing supply and confidence with their 10-15 seats. The viable Con band would appear to be 310-325.
For Labour a wider band is possible given the stated SNP position and their higher projected total. Labour on 280-325 accordingly. That said some SLAB MP's are extremely hostile to any SNP arrangement.
I doubt the LibDems will opt for supply and confidence - All the blame and none of the power. It's Coalition or bust for them.
Good point that the band for Lab minority is wider. But on the other hand a former PB TOTY whose name has slipped my mind has occasionally pointed out that "Ed Miliband will never be Prime Minister"
Who is this most articulate and forward thinking forecaster of seemingly unimpeachable brilliance?
PB deserves to know and garland the sage with copious accolades and cases of single malt in suitable tribute and humble recognition.
I actually think the whole argument about the EU referendum is completely moot anyway, before the end of 2017 we have a Act 2 of the GrExit drama in four months, the Spanish election with Podemos leading by some margin in the polls at the end of the year. We have an Italian election with Bepe Grillo's fruitcakes in the lead, and we have a French election with a good chance of FN getting into power, and a very good chance of them getting a load of seats in the national assembly. There are also several German state elections and the federal election in 2018 with a better than average chance of AfD making strong gains. The Dutch election is 2017 will be interesting as well with Geert Wilders leading in the polls at the moment. The chances the EU being in much of a state to leave are not good.
I knock on hundreds of doors a week in a ukip target seat, if anybody on here would like to message me I'm very happy for them to join me. I guarantee that those who judge ukip prospects by using national opinion polls will be amazed.
I actually think the whole argument about the EU referendum is completely moot anyway, before the end of 2017 we have a Act 2 of the GrExit drama in four months, the Spanish election with Podemos leading by some margin in the polls at the end of the year. We have an Italian election with Bepe Grillo's fruitcakes in the lead, and we have a French election with a good chance of FN getting into power, and a very good chance of them getting a load of seats in the national assembly. There are also several German state elections and the federal election in 2018 with a better than average chance of AfD making strong gains. The Dutch election is 2017 will be interesting as well with Geert Wilders leading in the polls at the moment. The chances the EU being in much of a state to leave are not good.
The issue in Europe has more to do with the establisment having it's right to rule questioned. The people who gave you the biggest bust in ages followed by stagnation are finding they no longer have an automatic acceptance that they know best.
By contrast the US because it is returning to business as usual is seeing the peasant revolt slack off. But even there I doubt it will ever be quite the same, too many scars.
England did about as well in the cricket as Scotland did in the rugby.
The England score was decent enough but their bowling attack was pitiful.
4 identikit medium fast bowlers and a part time spinner. Need to win every game from here on in.
Wins over Afghanistan and Bangladesh will see England through to the QF's and after that one off matches may throw up some surprises.
Teams often grow as a tournament progresses but England seem to lack bite and it's likely they'll be dumped out in the knockout phase unless they can gather their best game and especially find some significantly better bowling form.
I actually think the whole argument about the EU referendum is completely moot anyway, before the end of 2017 we have a Act 2 of the GrExit drama in four months, the Spanish election with Podemos leading by some margin in the polls at the end of the year. We have an Italian election with Bepe Grillo's fruitcakes in the lead, and we have a French election with a good chance of FN getting into power, and a very good chance of them getting a load of seats in the national assembly. There are also several German state elections and the federal election in 2018 with a better than average chance of AfD making strong gains. The Dutch election is 2017 will be interesting as well with Geert Wilders leading in the polls at the moment. The chances the EU being in much of a state to leave are not good.
This has probably been noted but, quoting form the piece, and from the unattributed remarks "In the event of a fragile Labour-led coalition taking power, they would argue that there could be a second general election within months”
That would require no-one else to be able to form a government. If a Milliband-led government collapsed, then there would have to be no other grouping which could form a government. Whether, in those circumstances, both or either of the biggest groups would remain momolithic is, IMHO, open to doubt.
I actually think the whole argument about the EU referendum is completely moot anyway, before the end of 2017 we have a Act 2 of the GrExit drama in four months, the Spanish election with Podemos leading by some margin in the polls at the end of the year. We have an Italian election with Bepe Grillo's fruitcakes in the lead, and we have a French election with a good chance of FN getting into power, and a very good chance of them getting a load of seats in the national assembly. There are also several German state elections and the federal election in 2018 with a better than average chance of AfD making strong gains. The Dutch election is 2017 will be interesting as well with Geert Wilders leading in the polls at the moment. The chances the EU being in much of a state to leave are not good.
Various populist parties of right and left are doing well, but the issues that are drawing their fire are economic (and austerity in particular) and non EU immigration. There is very little demand for breaking up the EU or dismantling the Eurozone. Even Syrizia wants to keep the Euro.
Cameron's position on the EU and the farce of renegotiation is as dishonest as he is. Still no answer on what he wants to renegotiate. Because this isn't about the UKs strategic position in the world, it is about the Tories' strategic position versus a largely reviled rightwing splinter group. Shameful. How dare Tories attempt to paint Miliband as opportunistic on anything when their own weak and embattled leader is the most shameless in selling out Britain's national in increasingly desperate attempts to shore up his crumbling position.
A torrid, pitiful PM.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
.
Charles - the UK has been a lot of things for all your life. And you've never had a say on them. Driving on the left. Using decimal currency. Most people don't obsess about these things.
Do they care about uncontrolled immigration?
Interesting how little furore there was this week over the new migration figures. Partly it was their predictibility, but a very big determinant must be the economy. When people are losing their jobs the issue of immigration becomes more intense, when the economy is growing they are more secure and much less bothered.
People who do not want immigrants are also generally much more bothered by Kuwaiti Jihadis than Polish waitresses.
I knock on hundreds of doors a week in a ukip target seat, if anybody on here would like to message me I'm very happy for them to join me. I guarantee that those who judge ukip prospects by using national opinion polls will be amazed.
I actually think the whole argument about the EU referendum is completely moot anyway, before the end of 2017 we have a Act 2 of the GrExit drama in four months, the Spanish election with Podemos leading by some margin in the polls at the end of the year. We have an Italian election with Bepe Grillo's fruitcakes in the lead, and we have a French election with a good chance of FN getting into power, and a very good chance of them getting a load of seats in the national assembly. There are also several German state elections and the federal election in 2018 with a better than average chance of AfD making strong gains. The Dutch election is 2017 will be interesting as well with Geert Wilders leading in the polls at the moment. The chances the EU being in much of a state to leave are not good.
Also, "The Five Star" movement is not in the lead, it scores less than half what Renzi's Democratic Party does in the polls, and is down to about 17% (from 23% a year ago). See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Italian_general_election
I may've sussed the YouGov lack of variation issue.
Just did my second VI in 3 days. Only done 2 in my life. What happens is you tick your voting intention 2 stager then get a survey on a stack of other stuff. Both times same thing's happened. YG say they last 10 to 15 minutes. You don't just get a GE poll.
Bingo. So YG have 300k registered for surveys but how many'll really be arsed to do them when it involves load of q's some of which are a pain in the butt? Bugger all's the answer. Bet you the actual pool of respondents for their polls is less than 3k - the same 3000 people answering the same VI opinion poll day after day [well 5 in 7]. Also a very very narrow demographic as a result.
YG'll deny this til they're bright blue in the cheeks but bet you a tiny tiny fraction of registerereds are the ones answering the poll: same old people, same old result, minimal variation.
Makes sense when you think about it, I did a few surveys some years ago and I got bored of them very quickly. Now I just ignore them and the pop up requests to "make the site better".
There is something wrong with the results, from gut instinct and experiernce, they don't feel right and I suspect many of the commentators on PB of all sides are suspicious as well.
Same here, get loads of survey requests but never polled on VI, and that over years.
I actually think the whole argument about the EU referendum is completely moot anyway, before the end of 2017 we have a Act 2 of the GrExit drama in four months, the Spanish election with Podemos leading by some margin in the polls at the end of the year. We have an Italian election with Bepe Grillo's fruitcakes in the lead, and we have a French election with a good chance of FN getting into power, and a very good chance of them getting a load of seats in the national assembly. There are also several German state elections and the federal election in 2018 with a better than average chance of AfD making strong gains. The Dutch election is 2017 will be interesting as well with Geert Wilders leading in the polls at the moment. The chances the EU being in much of a state to leave are not good.
Also, "The Five Star" movement is not in the lead, it scores less than half what Renzi's Democratic Party does in the polls, and is down to about 17% (from 23% a year ago). See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Italian_general_election
Do you think Five Star and Podemos votes will sit still in the polls if/when Greek falls apart in four months time. I agree they could go down as a result, but generally speaking anti-EU fruitcake parties seem to surge in the polls when the EU appears to be behaving high-handedly, especially to people who are asking for the same sort of things that they are likely to ask for.
If Cameron can't form the next government it's hard to see how he can survive. With Boris and Theresa circling you would assume Cam and Boy George would be finished...
People who do not want immigrants are also generally much more bothered by Kuwaiti Jihadis than Polish waitresses.
That is probably true. Ironically our old friend the HRA rather confirms peoples suspicions that the government is powerless to do much about that either.
I actually think the whole argument about the EU referendum is completely moot anyway, before the end of 2017 we have a Act 2 of the GrExit drama in four months, the Spanish election with Podemos leading by some margin in the polls at the end of the year. We have an Italian election with Bepe Grillo's fruitcakes in the lead, and we have a French election with a good chance of FN getting into power, and a very good chance of them getting a load of seats in the national assembly. There are also several German state elections and the federal election in 2018 with a better than average chance of AfD making strong gains. The Dutch election is 2017 will be interesting as well with Geert Wilders leading in the polls at the moment. The chances the EU being in much of a state to leave are not good.
Also, "The Five Star" movement is not in the lead, it scores less than half what Renzi's Democratic Party does in the polls, and is down to about 17% (from 23% a year ago). See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Italian_general_election
Do you think Five Star and Podemos votes will sit still in the polls if/when Greek falls apart in four months time. I agree they could go down as a result, but generally speaking anti-EU fruitcake parties seem to surge in the polls when the EU appears to be having high-handedly, especially to people who are asking for the same sort of things that they are likely to ask for.
Significantly the next round of EU vs Syrizia has been scheduled for after our GE.
The most likely European crisis in the next two months is to do with Ukraine and Russias interest in separatist movements in adjacent states. Few things would unite Europe better than an external threat.
I knock on hundreds of doors a week in a ukip target seat, if anybody on here would like to message me I'm very happy for them to join me. I guarantee that those who judge ukip prospects by using national opinion polls will be amazed.
I actually think the whole argument about the EU referendum is completely moot anyway, before the end of 2017 we have a Act 2 of the GrExit drama in four months, the Spanish election with Podemos leading by some margin in the polls at the end of the year. We have an Italian election with Bepe Grillo's fruitcakes in the lead, and we have a French election with a good chance of FN getting into power, and a very good chance of them getting a load of seats in the national assembly. There are also several German state elections and the federal election in 2018 with a better than average chance of AfD making strong gains. The Dutch election is 2017 will be interesting as well with Geert Wilders leading in the polls at the moment. The chances the EU being in much of a state to leave are not good.
Also, "The Five Star" movement is not in the lead, it scores less than half what Renzi's Democratic Party does in the polls, and is down to about 17% (from 23% a year ago). See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Italian_general_election
Do you think Five Star and Podemos votes will sit still in the polls if/when Greek falls apart in four months time. I agree they could go down as a result, but generally speaking anti-EU fruitcake parties seem to surge in the polls when the EU appears to be behaving high-handedly, especially to people who are asking for the same sort of things that they are likely to ask for.
No: I think they'll collapse.
If Greece leaves the Euro, sees its income fall in half, and sees massive civil unrest, do you think this will:
(a) Encourage people to say "hmmm... leaving the Euro sounds like a really good idea" or (b) Encourage people to say "god, austerity sucks, but look how awful Greece is"
The irony is that leaving the Euro is almost certainly the right choice for Greece. But leaving the Euro to follow Chavez's economic policy will lead to utter disaster.
England did about as well in the cricket as Scotland did in the rugby.
The England score was decent enough but their bowling attack was pitiful.
4 identikit medium fast bowlers and a part time spinner. Need to win every game from here on in.
Wins over Afghanistan and Bangladesh will see England through to the QF's and after that one off matches may throw up some surprises.
Teams often grow as a tournament progresses but England seem to lack bite and it's likely they'll be dumped out in the knockout phase unless they can gather their best game and especially find some significantly better bowling form.
Suspect we will lose one of those to put us out of our misery.
By co-incidence, last night a few of us were discussing Mrs.Thatcher and the coal strikes. In the Guardian "opinions" section of the website, Kevin McKenna has a more or less identical piece on my position. (I am not for a moment suggesting this is proof of the soundness of my position, just that after so long out of the news it's appearance was surprising)
"30 years after the strike ended, our misused miners must have the justice they deserve "
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
You do realise that in 2017 it will not be clear what, if anything, the other EU countries are prepared to offer? Even the EU's best friends don't think it works that quickly, with votes and referenda needed in 27 countries. What we would have is Cameron's negotiating package, plus some nudges and hints on what he might get - Spanish government will support this, Bulgarians say they might accept that, etc. Will that meet your requirement? Or in that situation will you want a delay until it's clear, or a second referendum?
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
You do realise that in 2017 it will not be clear what, if anything, the other EU countries are prepared to offer? Even the EU's best friends don't think it works that quickly, with votes and referenda needed in 27 countries. What we would have is Cameron's negotiating package, plus some nudges and hints on what he might get - Spanish government will support this, Bulgarians say they might accept that, etc. Will that meet your requirement? Or in that situation will you want a delay until it's clear, or a second referendum?
Then the vote option can be - stay IN if the changes are agreed, but leave if not.
So it looks like any edge that Labour has had throughout the past few years of this Parliament has gone. Dead heat at the moment.
The election campaign will be the most important for quite some time. For those who think this augurs well for Labour, that everything is settled, I would point them to the Scottish Parliament elections in 2011, when under a very poor leader, Labour crashed and burned during the campaign.
But I'm sure the "clean sheet of paper" manifesto, around which we hear of so much Labour unity, will keep their potential voters in waiting in long lines for the polling stations to open...
"We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough."
And who judges what they have offered Murdoch's SUN? Dacre's MAIL? The treaty is so long Kenneth Clark famously said he couldn't possibly work his way through it. It'll be a sham from the great shamster himself. He'll declare victory when nothing's changed and it'll rumble on for years
And if Hammond, Gove or BoJo think he's blowing smoke they'll say so and the tory party will fall apart.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
You do realise that in 2017 it will not be clear what, if anything, the other EU countries are prepared to offer? Even the EU's best friends don't think it works that quickly, with votes and referenda needed in 27 countries. What we would have is Cameron's negotiating package, plus some nudges and hints on what he might get - Spanish government will support this, Bulgarians say they might accept that, etc. Will that meet your requirement? Or in that situation will you want a delay until it's clear, or a second referendum?
remind me Nick what exactly are you offering re the EU ?
But I'm sure the "clean sheet of paper" manifesto, around which we hear of so much Labour unity, will keep their potential voters in waiting in long lines for the polling stations to open...
Usually when people talk about a "clean sheet of paper" manifesto, they mean they are starting from a clean sheet, and implies some radical or new thinking, not that after four and a half years of thinking, and two months from an election its still a clean sheet of paper (except from the new improved and almost universally derided Tuition Fees Policy of course!)
@Foxinsox - Interesting how little furore there was this week over the new migration figures. Partly it was their predictibility, but a very big determinant must be the economy. When people are losing their jobs the issue of immigration becomes more intense, when the economy is growing they are more secure and much less bothered.
Alternatively, the day the immigration figures were revealed was the day that Jihadi John was unmasked. As I commented yesterday, Cameron is a very lucky PM. Tory moves to import voters were knocked off the front pages and out of the comment sections.
@Foxinsox - Interesting how little furore there was this week over the new migration figures. Partly it was their predictibility, but a very big determinant must be the economy. When people are losing their jobs the issue of immigration becomes more intense, when the economy is growing they are more secure and much less bothered.
Alternatively, the day the immigration figures were revealed was the day that Jihadi John was unmasked. As I commented yesterday, Cameron is a very lucky PM. Tory moves to import voters were knocked off the front pages and out of the comment sections.
I agree. Cameron is lucky in a way that Ed is not.
Even so, I think that concern re immigration drops when people are feeling economically more secure.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
You do realise that in 2017 it will not be clear what, if anything, the other EU countries are prepared to offer? Even the EU's best friends don't think it works that quickly, with votes and referenda needed in 27 countries. What we would have is Cameron's negotiating package, plus some nudges and hints on what he might get - Spanish government will support this, Bulgarians say they might accept that, etc. Will that meet your requirement? Or in that situation will you want a delay until it's clear, or a second referendum?
remind me Nick what exactly are you offering re the EU ?
Let us know what aspect of the EU you want to bet on specifically - somebody else here may be able to offer you more generous odds than Nick Palmer.
Quite a few people seem to think the PIIGS situation is going to result in the Euro and/or the EU coming to a sticky end, so it might be interesting if we could work out a way to frame a bet on that and get some hard-cash probability numbers out there.
"We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough."
And who judges what they have offered Murdoch's SUN? Dacre's MAIL? The treaty is so long Kenneth Clark famously said he couldn't possibly work his way through it. It'll be a sham from the great shamster himself. He'll declare victory when nothing's changed and it'll rumble on for years
I think we can say with absolute confidence even this far from a referendum that whatever the results of the renegotiation the Express, the Mail, the Sun and the Telegraph will be vigorously supporting a vote for withdrawal. Should they lose, they will blame the BBC.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
You do realise that in 2017 it will not be clear what, if anything, the other EU countries are prepared to offer? Even the EU's best friends don't think it works that quickly, with votes and referenda needed in 27 countries. What we would have is Cameron's negotiating package, plus some nudges and hints on what he might get - Spanish government will support this, Bulgarians say they might accept that, etc. Will that meet your requirement? Or in that situation will you want a delay until it's clear, or a second referendum?
remind me Nick what exactly are you offering re the EU ?
Let us know what aspect of the EU you want to bet on specifically - somebody else here may be able to offer you more generous odds than Nick Palmer.
Quite a few people seem to think the PIIGS situation is going to result in the Euro and/or the EU coming to a sticky end, so it might be interesting if we could work out a way to frame a bet on that and get some hard-cash probability numbers out there.
Last time I looked Nick was a front man for a charity, I'm pretty sure he can speak for himself.
I am not comfortable about the polls. I think there is a methodological "error" [ I wish I knew what it was ]and the Tories are about a point or two higher with Labour the same percentage lower.]
It would not make much difference regarding NOM - which is odds on. However, it could decide which one ends up on top.
Labour's losses to the SNP has cost them the absolute majority but has not helped the Tories directly. Indirectly, they are a beneficiary. The Greens are more than an irritant. They are doing, on a smaller scale, what UKIP is doing to the Tories.
One crumb of comfort: in the spread betting: the Tories are ahead by only 8 seats. Last time they were ahead by almost 120 seats - and what happened ?
@Foxinsox - Interesting how little furore there was this week over the new migration figures. Partly it was their predictibility, but a very big determinant must be the economy. When people are losing their jobs the issue of immigration becomes more intense, when the economy is growing they are more secure and much less bothered.
Alternatively, the day the immigration figures were revealed was the day that Jihadi John was unmasked. As I commented yesterday, Cameron is a very lucky PM. Tory moves to import voters were knocked off the front pages and out of the comment sections.
I agree. Cameron is lucky in a way that Ed is not.
Even so, I think that concern re immigration drops when people are feeling economically more secure.
Not sure the last few years supports that. Immigration has been a big issue in this country since a long time before the crash. I guess what may be the case is that when people feel economically better off they are less inclined to let it shape their vote. That said, have we ever had a GE - in good times or in bad - where it has been a determining factor?
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
You do realise that in 2017 it will not be clear what, if anything, the other EU countries are prepared to offer? Even the EU's best friends don't think it works that quickly, with votes and referenda needed in 27 countries. What we would have is Cameron's negotiating package, plus some nudges and hints on what he might get - Spanish government will support this, Bulgarians say they might accept that, etc. Will that meet your requirement? Or in that situation will you want a delay until it's clear, or a second referendum?
remind me Nick what exactly are you offering re the EU ?
Let us know what aspect of the EU you want to bet on specifically - somebody else here may be able to offer you more generous odds than Nick Palmer.
Quite a few people seem to think the PIIGS situation is going to result in the Euro and/or the EU coming to a sticky end, so it might be interesting if we could work out a way to frame a bet on that and get some hard-cash probability numbers out there.
Last time I looked Nick was a front man for a charity, I'm pretty sure he can speak for himself.
He was once an MP you know.
I'm not saying he won't be offering you good value, I'm just saying someone else may be able to do even better.
@Foxinsox - Interesting how little furore there was this week over the new migration figures. Partly it was their predictibility, but a very big determinant must be the economy. When people are losing their jobs the issue of immigration becomes more intense, when the economy is growing they are more secure and much less bothered.
Alternatively, the day the immigration figures were revealed was the day that Jihadi John was unmasked. As I commented yesterday, Cameron is a very lucky PM. Tory moves to import voters were knocked off the front pages and out of the comment sections.
"Tory moves to import voters"? You must be as deluded as kippers. It was Labour's original policy to import voters when Asians mostly voted Labour. A few "wars against muslims" have knocked that a bit.
England did about as well in the cricket as Scotland did in the rugby.
The England score was decent enough but their bowling attack was pitiful.
4 identikit medium fast bowlers and a part time spinner. Need to win every game from here on in.
Wins over Afghanistan and Bangladesh will see England through to the QF's and after that one off matches may throw up some surprises.
Teams often grow as a tournament progresses but England seem to lack bite and it's likely they'll be dumped out in the knockout phase unless they can gather their best game and especially find some significantly better bowling form.
Against Bangladesh: really ? They have won 2 out of the last 3 contests including one in England and the other one was in the world cup.
Afganistan: It rains 13 days out of 31 in March in Sydney.
@Foxinsox - Interesting how little furore there was this week over the new migration figures. Partly it was their predictibility, but a very big determinant must be the economy. When people are losing their jobs the issue of immigration becomes more intense, when the economy is growing they are more secure and much less bothered.
Alternatively, the day the immigration figures were revealed was the day that Jihadi John was unmasked. As I commented yesterday, Cameron is a very lucky PM. Tory moves to import voters were knocked off the front pages and out of the comment sections.
"Tory moves to import voters"? You must be as deluded as kippers. It was Labour's original policy to import voters when Asians mostly voted Labour. A few "wars against muslims" have knocked that a bit.
Ha, ha. If immigration went up under Labour because Labour wanted to import voters, then surely the same reasoning must apply when it goes up under the Tories.
Cameron's position on the EU and the farce of renegotiation is as dishonest as he is. Still no answer on what he wants to renegotiate. Because this isn't about the UKs strategic position in the world, it is about the Tories' strategic position versus a largely reviled rightwing splinter group. Shameful. How dare Tories attempt to paint Miliband as opportunistic on anything when their own weak and embattled leader is the most shameless in selling out Britain's national in increasingly desperate attempts to shore up his crumbling position.
A torrid, pitiful PM.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
Want a referendum? This'll be the fifth where those who deem the EU a vital issue - not a big number of voters - have the opportunity to generate the wave of popular and democratic will to force their priorities into government.
As it looks likely not to happen again is democracy at work. The phobes should stop whining and hitching their position to appalling bandwagons like UKIP which poisons their appeal.
I'm not a phobe, it's not the most important vote determinant for me, and I'm not a Kipper.
On topic, given the polls it seems reasonable enough to be considering possible outcomes. No Cameron fan myself but he is still more popular than his party and for all I know more popular than potential successors. If EICIPM without a Labour majority in the house, the job of the Tories is going to be to make his life as difficult as possible in parliament from day one, not from day whenever they have sorted a new leader out.
But that isn't what has had this long time lurker to appear this Sunday morning. 'Reviled' according to BenM. Concerned about immigration only because of the BBC according to Dair (priceless). No just an ordinary person who loves his country and believes in the right of its people to govern themselves (for better or worse) without reference to or subservience to others. Many have given all that had for that right only for this generation of politicians to simply hand it away. So it's UKIP for me this time and if you don't like it, well good - get yourselves on Any Questions and try and clap out the freedom of speech we are supposed to enjoy and for many gave their lives.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
You do realise that in 2017 it will not be clear what, if anything, the other EU countries are prepared to offer? Even the EU's best friends don't think it works that quickly, with votes and referenda needed in 27 countries. What we would have is Cameron's negotiating package, plus some nudges and hints on what he might get - Spanish government will support this, Bulgarians say they might accept that, etc. Will that meet your requirement? Or in that situation will you want a delay until it's clear, or a second referendum?
remind me Nick what exactly are you offering re the EU ?
Let us know what aspect of the EU you want to bet on specifically - somebody else here may be able to offer you more generous odds than Nick Palmer.
Quite a few people seem to think the PIIGS situation is going to result in the Euro and/or the EU coming to a sticky end, so it might be interesting if we could work out a way to frame a bet on that and get some hard-cash probability numbers out there.
Last time I looked Nick was a front man for a charity, I'm pretty sure he can speak for himself.
He was once an MP you know.
I'm not saying he won't be offering you good value, I'm just saying someone else may be able to do even better.
Yeah, I'm not actually asking him odds, I'm asking him a political question as to what Labour is offering on the EU.
I was telling friends over the last 2/3 years that this should be Labour policy. Ticks many boxes. Many parents not at all comfortable with £9000 additional cost for themselves or their children. If you have 2 kids going through Uni then God help.
York City..No I do not vote in Italy..nor do I vote in the UK.As I was resident in Chelsea I would obviously vote for the Conservative..I don't think my missing vote will make that much difference.
@Foxinsox - Interesting how little furore there was this week over the new migration figures. Partly it was their predictibility, but a very big determinant must be the economy. When people are losing their jobs the issue of immigration becomes more intense, when the economy is growing they are more secure and much less bothered.
Alternatively, the day the immigration figures were revealed was the day that Jihadi John was unmasked. As I commented yesterday, Cameron is a very lucky PM. Tory moves to import voters were knocked off the front pages and out of the comment sections.
"Tory moves to import voters"? You must be as deluded as kippers. It was Labour's original policy to import voters when Asians mostly voted Labour. A few "wars against muslims" have knocked that a bit.
Ha, ha. If immigration went up under Labour because Labour wanted to import voters, then surely the same reasoning must apply when it goes up under the Tories.
Ironically, once they settled down, I thought the Poles would be natural Tories [ I know it is a broad brush ] because of those "family values" etc. etc.
But since their reception from Tories and right of centre people have been universally hostile, basically "why are you here ?" and "why don't you F****** go back ?" !!!
It will take sometime, even after they begin to naturalise, to vote Tory.
Apparently 84% (89% of Labour) have NEVER done anything that they regard as tax avoidance (ISAs?). Good job they did not ask about tax evasion which includes cash-in-hand!
"I would point them to the Scottish Parliament elections in 2011, when under a very poor leader, Labour crashed and burned during the campaign."
The great paradox is that this person who we all wrote off as complete crap (the only question was degree) is proving himself to be a very smart operator. His latest wheeze (pensions and student fees) is not only very popular (witness YouGov poll) but also a very smart piece of positioning.
Apparently 84% (89% of Labour) have NEVER done anything that they regard as tax avoidance (ISAs?). Good job they did not ask about tax evasion which includes cash-in-hand!
So do polls have any credibility?
They do have credibility because that is what people "believes". They know that stuffing money in Swiss banks is avoidance or evasion even though, in some cases, they may not be.
Apparently 84% (89% of Labour) have NEVER done anything that they regard as tax avoidance (ISAs?). Good job they did not ask about tax evasion which includes cash-in-hand!
So do polls have any credibility?
According to Lord A's written question, ISAs are not tax avoidance, they are tax something else (planning?) because they are used how the government wanted them to be. That is a convenient distinction, of course, but it hardly reveals a fundamental truth.
Just seen this weeks Sunday Times list of the Best Places to Live in Britain - and my village is in the list (Blackawton, number 8, for anyone curious...).
On topic, given the polls it seems reasonable enough to be considering possible outcomes. No Cameron fan myself but he is still more popular than his party and for all I know more popular than potential successors. If EICIPM without a Labour majority in the house, the job of the Tories is going to be to make his life as difficult as possible in parliament from day one, not from day whenever they have sorted a new leader out.
But that isn't what has had this long time lurker to appear this Sunday morning. 'Reviled' according to BenM. Concerned about immigration only because of the BBC according to Dair (priceless). No just an ordinary person who loves his country and believes in the right of its people to govern themselves (for better or worse) without reference to or subservience to others. Many have given all that had for that right only for this generation of politicians to simply hand it away. So it's UKIP for me this time and if you don't like it, well good - get yourselves on Any Questions and try and clap out the freedom of speech we are supposed to enjoy and for many gave their lives.
Kippers really don't get it.
There are only two ways to enjoy a high level of trade. Either you enforce your terms at gunpoint, which worked very well for the UK for 200 years until all those subjugated people rebelled.
Or you agree to give up the ability to make certain changes to your national laws in order to participate in open trade. One of those requirements, if you wish to trade with the EU, is to allow a single labour market, EFTA countries are required to agree to this. If the UK wants to close its borders then it needs to be very clearly understood that this means it will be poorer due to lack of trade, everything will be more expensive and often shoddier and the economy will fall off a cliff.
If you want that because you don't like Poles, fine. The problem is that Kippers seem to have no understanding of this and wilfully ignore such obvious truths.
Apparently 84% (89% of Labour) have NEVER done anything that they regard as tax avoidance (ISAs?). Good job they did not ask about tax evasion which includes cash-in-hand!
So do polls have any credibility?
Again ISA comes up ! ISA is NOT tax avoidance.ISA was CREATED by Parliament precisely for what it does. Just like Tax Allowances, putting money up to your limits in pension pots etc. etc. Parliament created those instruments.
Tax Avoidance is doing those acts [ constructions ? ] which Parliament DID NOT intend to do. They are legal simply because they are not illegal. Parliament can make them illegal as Parliament does in almost every budget by closing some loopholes until another one is invented.
* Second lowest Labour lead since ELBOW inception in August! Lowest Labour lead of 2015 so far and lowest since Nov. * Lowest Green score of 2015 so far * UKIP second lowest score of 2015 so far * LibDem lead over the Greens highest since mid-December * Two major parties the only parties to go up this week. All three lesser parties down.
Cameron's position on the EU and the farce of renegotiation is as dishonest as he is. Still no answer on what he wants to renegotiate. Because this isn't about the UKs strategic position in the world, it is about the Tories' strategic position versus a largely reviled rightwing splinter group. Shameful. How dare Tories attempt to paint Miliband as opportunistic on anything when their own weak and embattled leader is the most shameless in selling out Britain's national in increasingly desperate attempts to shore up his crumbling position.
A torrid, pitiful PM.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
Charles - the UK has been a lot of things for all your life. And you've never had a say on them. Driving on the left. Using decimal currency. Most people don't obsess about these things.
Sure, but none of fundamental constitutional importance.
This is my country, the government works for me. If they want to delegate power on a permanent basis, I have the right to approve or reject their proposal.
Clearly at 14% UKIP would do well enough to justify support if they dropped less than six points or so. I just wonder whether it is a case of damage limitation for them between now and May or whether people expect them to improve during the campaign period. Thoughts?
No just an ordinary person who loves his country and believes in the right of its people to govern themselves (for better or worse) without reference to or subservience to others. Many have given all that had for that right only for this generation of politicians to simply hand it away.
Nice to see you de-lurking, trawl.
What does it mean for people to govern themselves without reference to or subservience to others? On the face of it any international treaty would break that - for example, if you join NATO, you commit yourself to defend other NATO members if they're attacked. Your parliament could ultimately renege on that and pass laws in breach of the treaty, but that's true of Britain's obligations under the EU treaties as well.
Cameron's position on the EU and the farce of renegotiation is as dishonest as he is. Still no answer on what he wants to renegotiate. Because this isn't about the UKs strategic position in the world, it is about the Tories' strategic position versus a largely reviled rightwing splinter group. Shameful. How dare Tories attempt to paint Miliband as opportunistic on anything when their own weak and embattled leader is the most shameless in selling out Britain's national in increasingly desperate attempts to shore up his crumbling position.
A torrid, pitiful PM.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
Charles - the UK has been a lot of things for all your life. And you've never had a say on them. Driving on the left. Using decimal currency. Most people don't obsess about these things.
Sure, but none of fundamental constitutional importance.
This is my country, the government works for me. If they want to delegate power on a permanent basis, I have the right to approve or reject their proposal.
I don't see why - you've already delegated power to them, why do they have to ask you again before they delegate it on? And related to my previous point, that principle would mean you'd have to hold referendums on a lot of international treaties.
Where they should have to ask you is if they want to _appropriate_ power over you that they don't already have. Normally this is handled by having a written constitution stating what power the government has over you, and requiring a referendum if they want to change it.
Just seen this weeks Sunday Times list of the Best Places to Live in Britain - and my village is in the list (Blackawton, number 8, for anyone curious...).
Which was nice....
Apparently Blackawton was in line for the top spot until it was noticed it had the odd political obsessive living locally ....
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
You do realise that in 2017 it will not be clear what, if anything, the other EU countries are prepared to offer? Even the EU's best friends don't think it works that quickly, with votes and referenda needed in 27 countries. What we would have is Cameron's negotiating package, plus some nudges and hints on what he might get - Spanish government will support this, Bulgarians say they might accept that, etc. Will that meet your requirement? Or in that situation will you want a delay until it's clear, or a second referendum?
It will be possible to have completed the renegotiation if not the ratification.
So in the enabling legislation you include a provision that if ratification does not happen within X years then it automatically devolves into an exit.
More difficult is the Irish second vote situation, but I suspect you would leave it to the government to determine whether any amendments are sufficiently material to invaldiate the original vote
@Foxinsox - Interesting how little furore there was this week over the new migration figures. Partly it was their predictibility, but a very big determinant must be the economy. When people are losing their jobs the issue of immigration becomes more intense, when the economy is growing they are more secure and much less bothered.
Alternatively, the day the immigration figures were revealed was the day that Jihadi John was unmasked. As I commented yesterday, Cameron is a very lucky PM. Tory moves to import voters were knocked off the front pages and out of the comment sections.
"Tory moves to import voters"? You must be as deluded as kippers. It was Labour's original policy to import voters when Asians mostly voted Labour. A few "wars against muslims" have knocked that a bit.
Ha, ha. If immigration went up under Labour because Labour wanted to import voters, then surely the same reasoning must apply when it goes up under the Tories.
Ironically, once they settled down, I thought the Poles would be natural Tories [ I know it is a broad brush ] because of those "family values" etc. etc.
But since their reception from Tories and right of centre people have been universally hostile, basically "why are you here ?" and "why don't you F****** go back ?" !!!
It will take sometime, even after they begin to naturalise, to vote Tory.
Tories don't have equal views to right of centre (i.e. UKIP, BNP) despite your very broad brush.
If Tesco's run a competition that is supposed to have 100 winners of a Mini, but they misjudge it and print a million winning competition tickets, do you a) blame the people running the competition or b) blame the people turning up to claim their Mini? The Poles (and others) haven't gamed the system, so fair play to them. Reserve your anger for those in Labour who got the estimates hopelessly wrong, failed to plan for increased housing, education and health needs when they did - and then keep them far, far from the levers of power again.
The Tories need to print some leaflets in Polish - and remind them that Labour were the Socialist Party apologists for the Berlin Wall and the failed Communist system - and the Tories were the party that fought to bring down that wall and end Communism across Europe.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
You do realise that in 2017 it will not be clear what, if anything, the other EU countries are prepared to offer? Even the EU's best friends don't think it works that quickly, with votes and referenda needed in 27 countries. What we would have is Cameron's negotiating package, plus some nudges and hints on what he might get - Spanish government will support this, Bulgarians say they might accept that, etc. Will that meet your requirement? Or in that situation will you want a delay until it's clear, or a second referendum?
It will be possible to have completed the renegotiation if not the ratification.
So in the enabling legislation you include a provision that if ratification does not happen within X years then it automatically devolves into an exit.
More difficult is the Irish second vote situation, but I suspect you would leave it to the government to determine whether any amendments are sufficiently material to invaldiate the original vote
Second vote syndrome is one of the best things going for BOO, you can vote for out safe in the knowledge you'll get a second chance.
Just seen this weeks Sunday Times list of the Best Places to Live in Britain - and my village is in the list (Blackawton, number 8, for anyone curious...).
Which was nice....
Apparently Blackawton was in line for the top spot until it was noticed it had the odd political obsessive living locally ....
No - Jonathon DImbleby lives in the next village over, Jack....
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
You do realise that in 2017 it will not be clear what, if anything, the other EU countries are prepared to offer? Even the EU's best friends don't think it works that quickly, with votes and referenda needed in 27 countries. What we would have is Cameron's negotiating package, plus some nudges and hints on what he might get - Spanish government will support this, Bulgarians say they might accept that, etc. Will that meet your requirement? Or in that situation will you want a delay until it's clear, or a second referendum?
It will be possible to have completed the renegotiation if not the ratification.
So in the enabling legislation you include a provision that if ratification does not happen within X years then it automatically devolves into an exit.
More difficult is the Irish second vote situation, but I suspect you would leave it to the government to determine whether any amendments are sufficiently material to invaldiate the original vote
To be clear, are you saying you think there will be a treaty, signed by all EU members, before this hypothetical referendum?
PS. It seems a bit eccentric to give all the veto players in the EU an option to force Britain to exit. Losing votes in the Council of Ministers because of Britain? No problem, Britain just gave you control of their ejector seat. And some of these will be second chambers held by the opposition, and they'll be trying to make things difficult for their own governments.
There are only two ways to enjoy a high level of trade. Either you enforce your terms at gunpoint, which worked very well for the UK for 200 years until all those subjugated people rebelled.
Or you agree to give up the ability to make certain changes to your national laws in order to participate in open trade. One of those requirements, if you wish to trade with the EU, is to allow a single labour market, EFTA countries are required to agree to this. If the UK wants to close its borders then it needs to be very clearly understood that this means it will be poorer due to lack of trade, everything will be more expensive and often shoddier and the economy will fall off a cliff.
If you want that because you don't like Poles, fine. The problem is that Kippers seem to have no understanding of this and wilfully ignore such obvious truths.
You keep singing this hymn, and it doesn't make it any less bullshit for hearing it multiple times. The EU has free trade agreements with Korea, Iceland, Mexico and shortly with North America, none of those grant residency rights in either country. The conflation of immigration and trade is a complete red herring.
Clearly at 14% UKIP would do well enough to justify support if they dropped less than six points or so. I just wonder whether it is a case of damage limitation for them between now and May or whether people expect them to improve during the campaign period. Thoughts?
This is the Electoral Calculus for Ipswich (for which both the Sunday Times Poll and Jacks ARSE have as too close to call):
Sol Campbell states he wants to stand in Rifkinds seat for the Tories on Murnaghan
A few weeks back he said he wanted to save the Villa...now he wants to help save Camerons arse..he certainly has some optimism on lost causes..not sure who are firing more blanks lately...the Tory Blues or the Claret and Blues
Cameron's position on the EU and the farce of renegotiation is as dishonest as he is. Still no answer on what he wants to renegotiate. Because this isn't about the UKs strategic position in the world, it is about the Tories' strategic position versus a largely reviled rightwing splinter group. Shameful. How dare Tories attempt to paint Miliband as opportunistic on anything when their own weak and embattled leader is the most shameless in selling out Britain's national in increasingly desperate attempts to shore up his crumbling position.
A torrid, pitiful PM.
FWIW, Ben, the UK has been a member of the EU/EEC for all my life. And I've never had a say on that.
I want to have a vote: and I want it to be a clear vote. The renegotiation approach - even if it may not achieve anything - is needed. Otherwise the pro-EU side will behave like a whining boyfriend "Don't break up with me. I promise I can change".
We need to know what they are prepared to offer. And then the people can chose whether it is enough.
Charles - the UK has been a lot of things for all your life. And you've never had a say on them. Driving on the left. Using decimal currency. Most people don't obsess about these things.
Sure, but none of fundamental constitutional importance.
This is my country, the government works for me. If they want to delegate power on a permanent basis, I have the right to approve or reject their proposal.
I don't see why - you've already delegated power to them, why do they have to ask you again before they delegate it on? And related to my previous point, that principle would mean you'd have to hold referendums on a lot of international treaties.
Where they should have to ask you is if they want to _appropriate_ power over you that they don't already have. Normally this is handled by having a written constitution stating what power the government has over you, and requiring a referendum if they want to change it.
Parliament is empowered to enter into treaties between sovereign powers. These are voluntary self-denying ordinances.
Parliament can also delegate decision making to local bodies within the UK.
What it can't do is give decision making power to an external body, not elected by or answerable to the British electorate. (And no, UK MEPs aren't sufficient to make the EU parliament accountable because it has made decisions affecting the UK which virtually all the UK MEPs have voted against)
Comments
England have lost nine ODIs after making at least 300 batting first, the most by any team
Can you still vote at the GE in the UK ?
PB deserves to know and garland the sage with copious accolades and cases of single malt in suitable tribute and humble recognition.
By contrast the US because it is returning to business as usual is seeing the peasant revolt slack off. But even there I doubt it will ever be quite the same, too many scars.
Teams often grow as a tournament progresses but England seem to lack bite and it's likely they'll be dumped out in the knockout phase unless they can gather their best game and especially find some significantly better bowling form.
That would require no-one else to be able to form a government. If a Milliband-led government collapsed, then there would have to be no other grouping which could form a government. Whether, in those circumstances, both or either of the biggest groups would remain momolithic is, IMHO, open to doubt.
People who do not want immigrants are also generally much more bothered by Kuwaiti Jihadis than Polish waitresses.
There are five parties within about 5% of each other (VVD, PVV, SP, CDA and D66).
If Cameron can't form the next government it's hard to see how he can survive. With Boris and Theresa circling you would assume Cam and Boy George would be finished...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11442643/Jihadi-Johns-friend-cannot-be-deported-from-Britain.html
The most likely European crisis in the next two months is to do with Ukraine and Russias interest in separatist movements in adjacent states. Few things would unite Europe better than an external threat.
Check your vanilla mail.
If Greece leaves the Euro, sees its income fall in half, and sees massive civil unrest, do you think this will:
(a) Encourage people to say "hmmm... leaving the Euro sounds like a really good idea"
or
(b) Encourage people to say "god, austerity sucks, but look how awful Greece is"
The irony is that leaving the Euro is almost certainly the right choice for Greece. But leaving the Euro to follow Chavez's economic policy will lead to utter disaster.
In the Guardian "opinions" section of the website, Kevin McKenna has a more or less identical piece on my position.
(I am not for a moment suggesting this is proof of the soundness of my position, just that after so long out of the news it's appearance was surprising)
"30 years after the strike ended, our misused miners must have the justice they deserve "
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/01/scottish-miners-must-get-justice
Then the vote option can be - stay IN if the changes are agreed, but leave if not.
That should concentrate a few EU minds.
The election campaign will be the most important for quite some time. For those who think this augurs well for Labour, that everything is settled, I would point them to the Scottish Parliament elections in 2011, when under a very poor leader, Labour crashed and burned during the campaign.
But I'm sure the "clean sheet of paper" manifesto, around which we hear of so much Labour unity, will keep their potential voters in waiting in long lines for the polling stations to open...
Alternatively, the day the immigration figures were revealed was the day that Jihadi John was unmasked. As I commented yesterday, Cameron is a very lucky PM. Tory moves to import voters were knocked off the front pages and out of the comment sections.
Even so, I think that concern re immigration drops when people are feeling economically more secure.
Quite a few people seem to think the PIIGS situation is going to result in the Euro and/or the EU coming to a sticky end, so it might be interesting if we could work out a way to frame a bet on that and get some hard-cash probability numbers out there.
He was once an MP you know.
It would not make much difference regarding NOM - which is odds on. However, it could decide which one ends up on top.
Labour's losses to the SNP has cost them the absolute majority but has not helped the Tories directly. Indirectly, they are a beneficiary. The Greens are more than an irritant. They are doing, on a smaller scale, what UKIP is doing to the Tories.
One crumb of comfort: in the spread betting: the Tories are ahead by only 8 seats. Last time they were ahead by almost 120 seats - and what happened ?
Hope the weather is good everywhere on May 7th.
http://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/fccb3cdc9acc14a6e70a12f74560c026.html
Afganistan: It rains 13 days out of 31 in March in Sydney.
"There is still a chance that another Tory MP could defect to Ukip before the general election, Nigel Farage has suggested.
Farage said there was still “one conversation” going on with a Conservative about switching sides.”
That would upset the applecart!
But I want a say.
But that isn't what has had this long time lurker to appear this Sunday morning. 'Reviled' according to BenM. Concerned about immigration only because of the BBC according to Dair (priceless). No just an ordinary person who loves his country and believes in the right of its people to govern themselves (for better or worse) without reference to or subservience to others. Many have given all that had for that right only for this generation of politicians to simply hand it away. So it's UKIP for me this time and if you don't like it, well good - get yourselves on Any Questions and try and clap out the freedom of speech we are supposed to enjoy and for many gave their lives.
But since their reception from Tories and right of centre people have been universally hostile, basically "why are you here ?" and "why don't you F****** go back ?" !!!
It will take sometime, even after they begin to naturalise, to vote Tory.
Apparently 84% (89% of Labour) have NEVER done anything that they regard as tax avoidance (ISAs?). Good job they did not ask about tax evasion which includes cash-in-hand!
So do polls have any credibility?
Nadine ? Where are you ?
"I would point them to the Scottish Parliament elections in 2011, when under a very poor leader, Labour crashed and burned during the campaign."
The great paradox is that this person who we all wrote off as complete crap (the only question was degree) is proving himself to be a very smart operator. His latest wheeze (pensions and student fees) is not only very popular (witness YouGov poll) but also a very smart piece of positioning.
Which was nice....
There are only two ways to enjoy a high level of trade. Either you enforce your terms at gunpoint, which worked very well for the UK for 200 years until all those subjugated people rebelled.
Or you agree to give up the ability to make certain changes to your national laws in order to participate in open trade. One of those requirements, if you wish to trade with the EU, is to allow a single labour market, EFTA countries are required to agree to this. If the UK wants to close its borders then it needs to be very clearly understood that this means it will be poorer due to lack of trade, everything will be more expensive and often shoddier and the economy will fall off a cliff.
If you want that because you don't like Poles, fine. The problem is that Kippers seem to have no understanding of this and wilfully ignore such obvious truths.
Tax Avoidance is doing those acts [ constructions ? ] which Parliament DID NOT intend to do. They are legal simply because they are not illegal. Parliament can make them illegal as Parliament does in almost every budget by closing some loopholes until another one is invented.
Lab 33.5 (+0.4)
Con 32.8 (+0.7)
UKIP 14.3 (-0.6)
LD 7.8 (-0.2)
Grn 6.1 (-0.4)
Lab lead 0.7 (-0.3)
* Second lowest Labour lead since ELBOW inception in August! Lowest Labour lead of 2015 so far and lowest since Nov.
* Lowest Green score of 2015 so far
* UKIP second lowest score of 2015 so far
* LibDem lead over the Greens highest since mid-December
* Two major parties the only parties to go up this week. All three lesser parties down.
Just for a bit of fun:
YouGov only (five polls):
Con 33.5 (!)
Lab 33.4
UKIP 13.7
LD 7.4
Grn 6.2
And non-YouGovs only (six polls):
Lab 33.6
Con 31.9
UKIP 14.9
LD 8.3
Grn 5.9
In the space of a couple of questions, the respondents directly contradict their own views on whether MP's pay should be raised or not.
This is my country, the government works for me. If they want to delegate power on a permanent basis, I have the right to approve or reject their proposal.
(changes from all-January)
Lab 33.5 (+0.2)
Con 32.4 (+0.3)
UKIP 14.5 (-0.7)
LD 7.7 (+0.4)
Grn 6.3 (-0.2)
What does it mean for people to govern themselves without reference to or subservience to others? On the face of it any international treaty would break that - for example, if you join NATO, you commit yourself to defend other NATO members if they're attacked. Your parliament could ultimately renege on that and pass laws in breach of the treaty, but that's true of Britain's obligations under the EU treaties as well.
Where they should have to ask you is if they want to _appropriate_ power over you that they don't already have. Normally this is handled by having a written constitution stating what power the government has over you, and requiring a referendum if they want to change it.
So in the enabling legislation you include a provision that if ratification does not happen within X years then it automatically devolves into an exit.
More difficult is the Irish second vote situation, but I suspect you would leave it to the government to determine whether any amendments are sufficiently material to invaldiate the original vote
If Tesco's run a competition that is supposed to have 100 winners of a Mini, but they misjudge it and print a million winning competition tickets, do you a) blame the people running the competition or b) blame the people turning up to claim their Mini? The Poles (and others) haven't gamed the system, so fair play to them. Reserve your anger for those in Labour who got the estimates hopelessly wrong, failed to plan for increased housing, education and health needs when they did - and then keep them far, far from the levers of power again.
The Tories need to print some leaflets in Polish - and remind them that Labour were the Socialist Party apologists for the Berlin Wall and the failed Communist system - and the Tories were the party that fought to bring down that wall and end Communism across Europe.
PS. It seems a bit eccentric to give all the veto players in the EU an option to force Britain to exit. Losing votes in the Council of Ministers because of Britain? No problem, Britain just gave you control of their ejector seat. And some of these will be second chambers held by the opposition, and they'll be trying to make things difficult for their own governments.
A Lib Dem complaining about a dodgy bar chart.
@MSmithsonPB: Nomination for most distorted bar chart of day. Actual result C 39, L36, LD 20, UKIP 2.5 http://t.co/9uQy1ZHFfj
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_f_k.html#Ipswich
Which would seem to mean that UNS is pretty obsolete as far as 4 party politics goes.
It also means that the 18% LD vote is not so "Red Liberal" as some on here would claim.
That's how bad it got.
So I'm fully expecting Man City to beat Liverpool and the Irish to thrash England to top off this terrible sporting day.
for the Tories on Murnaghan
A few weeks back he said he wanted to save the Villa...now he wants
to help save Camerons arse..he certainly has some optimism on lost
causes..not sure who are firing more blanks lately...the Tory Blues or
the Claret and Blues
Parliament can also delegate decision making to local bodies within the UK.
What it can't do is give decision making power to an external body, not elected by or answerable to the British electorate. (And no, UK MEPs aren't sufficient to make the EU parliament accountable because it has made decisions affecting the UK which virtually all the UK MEPs have voted against)
OTBC
https://twitter.com/adamwisdish95/status/571765923734032384/photo/1