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I’ve just caught up with the excellent BBC2 programme that was screened on Sunday night – “Meet the Ukippers” which focuses on Thanet South where Nigel Farage is the party’s candidate. It’s really worth watching and gives a great flavour of the battle that is going on.

Read the full story here

peter_from_putney

First ..... again!

FrancisUrquhart

"For me, however, the most revealing aspects was the high level of hostility that the UKIP/Farage campaign is attracting."

I have to say I don't agree...every political party gets a rent a mob these days. Think how they secure the party conferences. I didn't see in that documentary anything that indicated anything more than the standard rent a mob. Cameron would get the same if he rocked up.

I actually didn't really think the documentary was that interesting either. It showed up UKIP organisation for basically being a group of oldies that were very much of the amateur / busy-bodies variety, but not sure that is particularly revealing...that was my presumption, that outside of media savvy Farage, most of UKIP is run like a bowls club worrying about the youth hanging out around the back on a Friday night and convinced the worst will happen i.e that only a matter of time before out of their heads on cheap cider and drugs that they will burn down the club house in between having lots of random hook-ups.

peter_from_putney

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

felix

As a non-UKIP supporter I'm shocked that a BBC programme would portray the party in a negative
light. Who would have thought it?

felix

I like the phrase 'Labour is competitive' - even while their support has steadily fallen in the most recent polls.

MikeSmithson

11/1 on LAB with William Hill is a great bet

MikeSmithson

felix said:

I like the phrase 'Labour is competitive' - even while their support has steadily fallen in the most recent polls.

In November when that poll was carried out UKIP was at its peak.

felix

MikeSmithson said:

felix said:

I like the phrase 'Labour is competitive' - even while their support has steadily fallen in the most recent polls.

In November when that poll was carried out UKIP was at its peak.

Fair point but that assumes most of the UKIP fall would go to Labour. In fact just as likely to go blue or not vote.

MikeSmithson

This from last week's Ashcroft poll

@LordAshroft national poll. Some good +ve numbers for LAB here an bad ones for Farage/UKIP pic.twitter.com/kpfuLCcXhB

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 16, 2015

peter_from_putney

FWIW Baxter currently gives the Tories 35.0%, UKIP 31.0% and Labour 28.3% at Thanet South and on this basis Mike's right ..... Labour are value at 11/1 with Hills (10/1 elsewhere btw).

Paul_Mid_Beds

Isn't all this anti UKIP glee and excitement rather ignoring the fact that Dispatches has reminded the electorate that LibLabCon are utterly rotten to the core over the last 24 hours.

It is also inevitable that the establishment and MSM monstering of UKIP will result in less voters admitting they will vote UKIP, ie an increasingly shy UKIP tendency.

I thought the Ashcroft constituency poll that had UKIP ahead on three of the four polls but then put the tories adhead when adjusting, presumably on the assumption of shy tories, when they could equally validly have adjusted the other way, was something of a parable of modern polling.

I agree with Mr Hitchens that the purpose of opinion polls is now to attempt to influence not reflect the electorate.

FrancisUrquhart

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Isn't all this anti UKIP glee and excitement rather ignoring the fact that Dispatches has reminded the electorate that LibLabCon are utterly rotten to the core over the last 24 hours.

Might what to be careful there...Dispatches itself was very careful what they were and weren't suggesting. I will be surprised if especially Jack Straw is found to have done anything against the rules, as he spent most of the time on camera explaining why he wouldn't take any money until he wasn't an MP anymore.

Unsightly seeing leading politicians doing a show and dance to get a job, Dispatches had to insert a lot of caveats explaining that both made a lot of things very clear in regards to any possible role.

CarlottaVance

The SNP's 'The Scots are more pro-EU than r-UK' survives little scrutiny (today's YouGov)

If referendum held to leave EU would vote to stay in (net)

OA: +10
Lon: +24
RoS: +9
Mid/W: +9
N: +3
Sc: +11

London & the North are the outliers - the Scots are pretty much in line with the rest of the country.

CarlottaVance

Just been YouGoved - one of their regular 'what positive things have you heard about..list of food outlets.

Before that got started was a two stage VI question - Who would you vote for in GE, followed by 'Thinking about your specific constituency'.....I supplied same answer to both - wonder if I'd have got a different poll if I'd supplied different answers?

OblitusSumMe

Mike Smithson said:

The well funded Al Murray campaign might not attract voters to the Oxford-educated comedian but it stokes up the pot and has the potential to hurt Farage.

He might be more likely to attract the votes of anti-UKIP voters looking to have a laugh at his expense, thus hurting Labour's chances.

Casino_Royale

Already on this bet, for the Tories. Farage will polarise and the Labour vote will be squeezed.

The sort of people who will vote Al Murray will be those who are anti-politics and want to take the piss out of Farage. It won't hurt him but it will possibly hurt his opponent.

TheScreamingEagles

I predict some Kipper willy waving on this thread.

Theoretically I'd expect Farage to get a boost because a leader generally does and Labour voters will conclude the best option to sabotage the Tories is to vote purple.

So Farage should win.

TheScreamingEagles

I just can't see Labour winning in this seat. They polled 31% last time and have 15% Lib Dems to eat up and they are still polling less than they did in 2010.

And to think they held it five years ago.

Alistair

CarlottaVance said:

The SNP's 'The Scots are more pro-EU than r-UK' survives little scrutiny (today's YouGov)

If referendum held to leave EU would vote to stay in (net)

OA: +10
Lon: +24
RoS: +9
Mid/W: +9
N: +3
Sc: +11

London & the North are the outliers - the Scots are pretty much in line with the rest of the country.

Top quality sub-sampling there. Panelbase did a pair of side by side 1000 person polls, one for Scotland and one for the rest of the UK. They got, for the question, "The UK should
leave the European Union"

Scotland

Agree: 37%
Disagree: 42%
Net agreement: -5

rUK

Agree: 43%
Disagree: 39%
Net agreement: +4

Removing don't knows it was
Scotland: -6
Rest of UK: +5

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581wings.pdf

AlastairMeeks

If you want to bet that Nigel Farage will lose, you can get 6/5 on that proposition with Corals:

http://sports.coral.co.uk/political-specials/uk/uk-politics/general-election-2015-to-be-an-mp-after-the-election-2476356.html

Pulpstar

Thanet South is a long way from Buckingham.

peter_from_putney

CarlottaVance said:

Just been YouGoved - one of their regular 'what positive things have you heard about..list of food outlets.

Before that got started was a two stage VI question - Who would you vote for in GE, followed by 'Thinking about your specific constituency'.....I supplied same answer to both - wonder if I'd have got a different poll if I'd supplied different answers?

The question I would like to ask Peter Kellner is: "Why do YG's VI figures move within such an incredibly narrow band, week after week, month after month and is there any aspect about your company's methodology which brings this about?"

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

Thanet South is a long way from Buckingham.

Not if you travel on a plane.

Sean_F

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

The SNP's 'The Scots are more pro-EU than r-UK' survives little scrutiny (today's YouGov)

If referendum held to leave EU would vote to stay in (net)

OA: +10
Lon: +24
RoS: +9
Mid/W: +9
N: +3
Sc: +11

London & the North are the outliers - the Scots are pretty much in line with the rest of the country.

Top quality sub-sampling there. Panelbase did a pair of side by side 1000 person polls, one for Scotland and one for the rest of the UK. They got, for the question, "The UK should
leave the European Union"

Scotland

Agree: 37%
Disagree: 42%
Net agreement: -5

rUK

Agree: 43%
Disagree: 39%
Net agreement: +4

Removing don't knows it was
Scotland: -6
Rest of UK: +5

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581wings.pdf

That's not a huge difference between Scotland and RUK.

As to Thanet South, anti-UKIP tactical voting hasn't really materialised in by-elections, which is where you'd expect to see it. And, if you vote Conservative here, you're voting for a candidate whose views are much the same as Farage's.

Pulpstar

I'm +55.33 UKIP -40 CON -130 LAB here, happy enough with that.

foxinsoxuk

peter_from_putney said:

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

Shadsys exact seat market looks attractive too. I have backed both 2 and 3 at good odds.

I do think that Carswell is safe, other than that it may well be one of the lower profile seats that puts in the second kipper, somewhere unexpected.

Having to campaign in Thanet intensively himself will be quite a distraction for Farage from the national campaign.

peter_from_putney

Looking at Hills' other markets for Thanet South, I notice that in a three way fight for the most votes, they have Al Murray on 6/4 ahead of both the Greens and the LibDems, both on offer at 7/4.

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

Looking at Hills' other markets for Thanet South, I notice that in a three way fight for the most votes, they have Al Murray on 6/4 ahead of both the Greens and the LibDems, both on offer at 7/4.

Doubt Al Murray should be the shortest of the 3. 112% market at any rate.

Roger

Mike

"This from last week's Ashcroft poll

@LordAshroft national poll. Some good +ve numbers for LAB here an bad ones for Farage/UKIP pic.twitter.com/kpfuLCcXhB
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)
February 16, 2015"

It strikes me that the one of the few areas where things might change before the election is Ed's leadership ratings. The parties have reached saturation point as has Cameron Farage and Clegg's personal ratings. Only Ed and the Green leader whose name escapes me could spring a surprise and show an appeal we haven't yet seen. Rather like we saw with Clegg in 2010 personal appeal can be a very fickle thing

chestnut

CarlottaVance said:

Just been YouGoved - one of their regular 'what positive things have you heard about..list of food outlets.

Before that got started was a two stage VI question - Who would you vote for in GE, followed by 'Thinking about your specific constituency'.....I supplied same answer to both - wonder if I'd have got a different poll if I'd supplied different answers?

I got the same starters, then a string of questions that are ripped straight from the European Social Survey.

Scott_P

Roger said:

the Green leader whose name escapes me could spring a surprise and show an appeal we haven't yet seen.

Could she appeal enough for you to remember her name?

Pulpstar

Farage gets in here for the same reason CLegg does I reckon. Leader...

Dair

It seems incredible that the worse the polls show for UKIP the more determined the hardcore Kippers are that they'll somehow do well in an election despite all experience and indication.

A more realistic examination seems to indicate that it would now be a minor surprise if Farage gets elected.

Easterross

Morning all and I fully expect Farage to make it 7 out of 7 glorious defeats at General Elections. Douglas Carswell will be UKIP's parliamentary representative and we don't want him back. His punishment for being a traitorous pig dog is to spend the next 20 years sitting on the Labour benches.

Looking like yesterday's Ashcroft poll was an outlier of spectacular proportions. For me Labour being 6 ahead in England clearly indicated a sampling issue. Never mind we have his next clutch of seat polls to look forward to next Wednesday.

JohnO

Sean_F said:

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

The SNP's 'The Scots are more pro-EU than r-UK' survives little scrutiny (today's YouGov)

If referendum held to leave EU would vote to stay in (net)

OA: +10
Lon: +24
RoS: +9
Mid/W: +9
N: +3
Sc: +11

London & the North are the outliers - the Scots are pretty much in line with the rest of the country.

Top quality sub-sampling there. Panelbase did a pair of side by side 1000 person polls, one for Scotland and one for the rest of the UK. They got, for the question, "The UK should
leave the European Union"

Scotland

Agree: 37%
Disagree: 42%
Net agreement: -5

rUK

Agree: 43%
Disagree: 39%
Net agreement: +4

Removing don't knows it was
Scotland: -6
Rest of UK: +5

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581wings.pdf

That's not a huge difference between Scotland and RUK.

As to Thanet South, anti-UKIP tactical voting hasn't really materialised in by-elections, which is where you'd expect to see it. And, if you vote Conservative here, you're voting for a candidate whose views are much the same as Farage's.

But if you vote for the Conservative you get a referendum. If you vote for Farage, you won't.

peter_from_putney

chestnut said:

CarlottaVance said:

Just been YouGoved - one of their regular 'what positive things have you heard about..list of food outlets.

Before that got started was a two stage VI question - Who would you vote for in GE, followed by 'Thinking about your specific constituency'.....I supplied same answer to both - wonder if I'd have got a different poll if I'd supplied different answers?

I got the same starters, then a string of questions that are ripped straight from the European Social Survey.

Unless I'm very much mistaken, that's two votes for the Blues in this YG survey - I'll look out for a big bounce in the Tories' level of support in this pollster's next findings!

Sean_F

JohnO said:

Sean_F said:

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

The SNP's 'The Scots are more pro-EU than r-UK' survives little scrutiny (today's YouGov)

If referendum held to leave EU would vote to stay in (net)

OA: +10
Lon: +24
RoS: +9
Mid/W: +9
N: +3
Sc: +11

London & the North are the outliers - the Scots are pretty much in line with the rest of the country.

Top quality sub-sampling there. Panelbase did a pair of side by side 1000 person polls, one for Scotland and one for the rest of the UK. They got, for the question, "The UK should
leave the European Union"

Scotland

Agree: 37%
Disagree: 42%
Net agreement: -5

rUK

Agree: 43%
Disagree: 39%
Net agreement: +4

Removing don't knows it was
Scotland: -6
Rest of UK: +5

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581wings.pdf

That's not a huge difference between Scotland and RUK.

As to Thanet South, anti-UKIP tactical voting hasn't really materialised in by-elections, which is where you'd expect to see it. And, if you vote Conservative here, you're voting for a candidate whose views are much the same as Farage's.

But if you vote for the Conservative you get a referendum. If you vote for Farage, you won't.

I expect that Farage would vote in favour of an EU referendum.

DavidL

The UKIP vote has been by far the most volatile of this Parliament (the Lib Dems had a bigger movement initially but any subsequent movement has had the suspicion of rigor mortis about it). I think this means that it is more likely than not that they will fade somewhat as the election approaches and people focus on the real choices for government in this country but there remains an outside chance that they will bounce back once they get more media attention.

I think Farage is in danger of losing some of his USP and being a bit more like all the others. He has shown an ability in the past to articulate the public mood of a largish section of the population who feel ignored by the more metropolitan parties but he has struggled to do that recently. He really needs an issue that catches the public's ear.

And his truly awful performance in Buckingham at the last election needs to be taken into account as well. I don't think he will make it.

foxinsoxuk

Scott_P said:

Roger said:

the Green leader whose name escapes me could spring a surprise and show an appeal we haven't yet seen.

Could she appeal enough for you to remember her name?

Bennett just got ripped to shreds on the Today programme. I cannot see her performing well on telly or radio. She will get a lot of support on Social Media though which is where her voters lie.

I am inciting Fox jr to vote Green in Norwich South. I have a few quid on, and every little helps...

CD13

As I've mentioned on here before, I (and many others) think Ukip will drift slowly down as we approach GE but perk up in the last month with the increased publicity. But they'll certainly be starting from a higher base than I anticipated.

The drift down depends on Ukip being ignored and they're not being. They appear to be an amateur bunch and a little disorganised, but you can say that about the Greens and we used to say the same about the LDs.

However, the other two attract different demographic (posher and younger) so are more media friendly. But the oldies vote.

I think you're all very brave to vet on politics at the moment. I wish you luck and hope the adrenaline rush makes up for any minor losses.

rottenborough

Morning all,

Like Mike I also caught up with the Kippers film last night. Very interesting. What struck me most was the age profile - everybody seemed to be in their 60s or later. Maybe this is because a lot of people come to Thanet to retire, or maybe this is true of UKIP on a wider stage. Obviously this is an age group that votes.

Roger

Easterross

"Morning all and I fully expect Farage to make it 7 out of 7 glorious defeats at General Elections. Douglas Carswell will be UKIP's parliamentary representative and we don't want him back. His punishment for being a traitorous pig dog is to spend the next 20 years sitting on the Labour benches."

When I read Easterross's posts I'm always reminded that Scotland must see UK elections as a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom they know nothing.

MarqueeMark

Pulpstar said:

Farage gets in here for the same reason CLegg does I reckon. Leader...

Your logic didn't help Nick Griffin when he stood in Barking in 2010. The BNP vote dropped 1.7% from 2005.

And before you Kippers all rush off to board the Outrage Bus, I am most definitely not saying Nigel Farage = Nick Griffin. Or that UKIP = BNP. Just pointing out party leadership is not a gauarantee of sufficient increased vote share to get over the line. As it won't help Natalie Bennet for the Greens. Nor Nick Clegg for the smaller Liberal Democrats party....

Pulpstar

Just done a Yougov survey too...

peter_from_putney

Pulpstar said:

Just done a Yougov survey too...

Oh dear ..... that rather levels things off somewhat.

Financier

Looking at today's YG poll:

83% of UKIP VI would vote to leave the EU (7% stay in,)

BUT if DC renegotiates UK's EU terms, that figure falls to 63% (23% stay in),

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

Pulpstar said:

Just done a Yougov survey too...

Oh dear ..... that rather levels things off somewhat.

My answers bear no relation to what I will do or indeed my views.

DavidL

Did anyone see Galeforce in action last night? 215 in a ODI at a strike rate of 146. I know what I will be watching on the TV tonight and it won't be UKIP documentaries.

JohnO

Sean_F said:

JohnO said:

Sean_F said:

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

The SNP's 'The Scots are more pro-EU than r-UK' survives little scrutiny (today's YouGov)

If referendum held to leave EU would vote to stay in (net)

OA: +10
Lon: +24
RoS: +9
Mid/W: +9
N: +3
Sc: +11

London & the North are the outliers - the Scots are pretty much in line with the rest of the country.

Top quality sub-sampling there. Panelbase did a pair of side by side 1000 person polls, one for Scotland and one for the rest of the UK. They got, for the question, "The UK should
leave the European Union"

Scotland

Agree: 37%
Disagree: 42%
Net agreement: -5

rUK

Agree: 43%
Disagree: 39%
Net agreement: +4

Removing don't knows it was
Scotland: -6
Rest of UK: +5

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581wings.pdf

That's not a huge difference between Scotland and RUK.

As to Thanet South, anti-UKIP tactical voting hasn't really materialised in by-elections, which is where you'd expect to see it. And, if you vote Conservative here, you're voting for a candidate whose views are much the same as Farage's.

But if you vote for the Conservative you get a referendum. If you vote for Farage, you won't.

I expect that Farage would vote in favour of an EU referendum.

While thanking his lucky stars that Ed Miliband is Prime Minister and that there won't be one.

Scrapheap_as_was

Any one want an update on my annuity share investment... today is a good one!

Pulpstar

DavidL said:

Did anyone see Galeforce in action last night? 215 in a ODI at a strike rate of 146. I know what I will be watching on the TV tonight and it won't be UKIP documentaries.

Oh Great - kerching. That's won me ~ £18.

Dair

For those expecting the Lib Dems or UKIP to benefit from the MUCH smaller coverage they get in the short campaign, please take a look at the opinion polling in the final weeks of the Scottish Elections of 2007 and 2011 where there was a Four Major Party system and where the third and fourth parties get considerably reduced coverage (nothing like that a single third party gets).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2007

There is an identifiable uptick for the Conservatives in 2011 but no uptick for the Conservatives in 2007 or the Lib Dems in either elections. The 2011 Conservative uptick is fairly small (couple of points) and should be taken in the context of polling before the Short Campaign being a historic low for the Tories.

The evidence is not there for the secondary parties benefiting from increased television exposure and getting a noticeable increase in voting share.

another_richard

peter_from_putney said:

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

I think UKIP will get a few surprise wins while missing out on high profile targets - I think their chances are overrated in Thurrock for example.

In much the same way that there have usually been a few surprise Lib / SDP / LibDem gains at each election.

DavidL

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

Did anyone see Galeforce in action last night? 215 in a ODI at a strike rate of 146. I know what I will be watching on the TV tonight and it won't be UKIP documentaries.

Oh Great - kerching. That's won me ~ £18.

I hope you don't need a result. The match is currently delayed by rain.

Pulpstar

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

Did anyone see Galeforce in action last night? 215 in a ODI at a strike rate of 146. I know what I will be watching on the TV tonight and it won't be UKIP documentaries.

Oh Great - kerching. That's won me ~ £18.

I hope you don't need a result. The match is currently delayed by rain.

£5 @ 9-4 Over 189, £9.19 over 163.5 @ 5-6 Anyone.

edmundintokyo

Financier said:

Looking at today's YG poll:

83% of UKIP VI would vote to leave the EU (7% stay in,)

BUT if DC renegotiates UK's EU terms, that figure falls to 63% (23% stay in),

Middle option bias.

Easterross

Morning Roger,
How are things at the coal face? Still forcing yourself to drink champagne and do next to nothing all day in Monte Carlo?

Do you think your wee cousin Ian Murray will hang on or get rogered in Edinburgh South, the fate potentially facing so many SLAB MPs?

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Trying to remember how many seats I reckoned UKIP would get. I think I went for 4.

peter_from_putney

another_richard said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

I think UKIP will get a few surprise wins while missing out on high profile targets - I think their chances are overrated in Thurrock for example.

In much the same way that there have usually been a few surprise Lib / SDP / LibDem gains at each election.

Remind me, which were the surprise LibDem gains at the 2010 GE?

peter_from_putney

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Any one want an update on my annuity share investment... today is a good one!

Yep, let's hear it.

Pulpstar

peter_from_putney said:

another_richard said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

I think UKIP will get a few surprise wins while missing out on high profile targets - I think their chances are overrated in Thurrock for example.

In much the same way that there have usually been a few surprise Lib / SDP / LibDem gains at each election.

Remind me, which were the surprise LibDem gains at the 2010 GE?

Montgomeryshire.

JohnO

peter_from_putney said:

another_richard said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

I think UKIP will get a few surprise wins while missing out on high profile targets - I think their chances are overrated in Thurrock for example.

In much the same way that there have usually been a few surprise Lib / SDP / LibDem gains at each election.

Remind me, which were the surprise LibDem gains at the 2010 GE?

Redcar?

TheScreamingEagles

peter_from_putney said:

another_richard said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

I think UKIP will get a few surprise wins while missing out on high profile targets - I think their chances are overrated in Thurrock for example.

In much the same way that there have usually been a few surprise Lib / SDP / LibDem gains at each election.

Remind me, which were the surprise LibDem gains at the 2010 GE?

Eastbourne, Wells and Solihull*

*Technically it was a gain as notionally it was a Tory seat.

rcs1000

peter_from_putney said:

another_richard said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

I think UKIP will get a few surprise wins while missing out on high profile targets - I think their chances are overrated in Thurrock for example.

In much the same way that there have usually been a few surprise Lib / SDP / LibDem gains at each election.

Remind me, which were the surprise LibDem gains at the 2010 GE?

Eastbourne?

Purseybear

CD13 said:

I think you're all very brave to bet on politics at the moment. I wish you luck and hope the adrenaline rush makes up for any minor losses.

Yeah me too. Dodgy as hell at moment. Gains to make but potential big losers too. Hasn't all kicked off yet.

TheScreamingEagles

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Any one want an update on my annuity share investment... today is a good one!

Go on, tell us you're the Bobby Sol Harry Kane of the annuity world.

Financier

Looking at the YG 2010VIs, the average Cons loss to UKIP is 17.6, down from 18.2 last month.
Similarly the average LD loss to UKIP is 11.1, down from 11.8.

Also the LD loss to Green is 13.4, down from 15.7 and so LD retention is 27.8, up from 26.1.

Roger

Easterross.

Good morning. He is not my cousin. I'd be vey disappointed if he didn't win. My only two bets on this election are on Ann Begg and him. If you were anyone else I'd ask if you had any insight but I suspect it would be the kiss of death and I owe it to my cousin not to damage his chances.

JohnO

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

another_richard said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

I think UKIP will get a few surprise wins while missing out on high profile targets - I think their chances are overrated in Thurrock for example.

In much the same way that there have usually been a few surprise Lib / SDP / LibDem gains at each election.

Remind me, which were the surprise LibDem gains at the 2010 GE?

Eastbourne, Wells and Solihull*

*Technically it was a gain as notionally it was a Tory seat.

Not really Eastbourne I think. Nigel Waterson, the defeated Tory MP, had his fair share of troubles and I wasn't surprised to see him lose.

Purseybear

peter_from_putney said:

CarlottaVance said:

Just been YouGoved - one of their regular 'what positive things have you heard about..list of food outlets.

Before that got started was a two stage VI question - Who would you vote for in GE, followed by 'Thinking about your specific constituency'.....I supplied same answer to both - wonder if I'd have got a different poll if I'd supplied different answers?

The question I would like to ask Peter Kellner is: "Why do YG's VI figures move within such an incredibly narrow band, week after week, month after month and is there any aspect about your company's methodology which brings this about?"

Me too. Polls should move around a bit. Daily polling that doesn't budge makes me ultra wary. Kind of building up a PL and Div 1 of pollsters. Or maybe just phone pollsters are safer proposition for punters?

Pulpstar

Roger said:

Easterross.

Good morning. He is not my cousin. I'd be vey disappointed if he didn't win. My only two bets on this election are on Ann Begg and him. If you were anyone else I'd ask if you had any insight but I suspect it would be the kiss of death and I owe it to my cousin not to damage his chances.

If you're going to back SLAB those are not the worse constituencies to do it in./

Slackbladder

another_richard said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

I think UKIP will get a few surprise wins while missing out on high profile targets - I think their chances are overrated in Thurrock for example.

In much the same way that there have usually been a few surprise Lib / SDP / LibDem gains at each election.

Which raises the issue of the future of UKIP if they get one or two MPs, but Farage isn't one of them.

TheScreamingEagles

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

peter_from_putney said:

another_richard said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

I think UKIP will get a few surprise wins while missing out on high profile targets - I think their chances are overrated in Thurrock for example.

In much the same way that there have usually been a few surprise Lib / SDP / LibDem gains at each election.

Remind me, which were the surprise LibDem gains at the 2010 GE?

Eastbourne, Wells and Solihull*

*Technically it was a gain as notionally it was a Tory seat.

Not really Eastbourne I think. Nigel Waterson, the defeated Tory MP, had his fair share of troubles and I wasn't surprised to see him lose.

This is true.

Roger

Pulpstar

"If you're going to back SLAB those are not the worse constituencies to do it in./"

Thank's. I got just worse than even money on both. 10/11 or thereabout

Purseybear

Roger said:

Mike
The parties have reached saturation point as has Cameron Farage and Clegg's personal ratings.

Who says? Evidence for that please? Chatting to friends n' work colleagues lots still undecideds and much total apathy. Still some unconscious there's an election. Campaigns haven't kicked off, parliaments still sitting. Don't expect your saturation to hit until mid April if at all. So you'd better get used to it, or go on holiday ;-)

Financier

Lord A's bit of political fun - published yesterday with his comments on his poll.

He asked which supermarket the party leaders would use:

Nigel Farage would be Aldi: “you know what you’re getting. Down to earth. Anyone can shop there.”

Nick Clegg would be the Co-op, with “all its nice fair trade values”

David Cameron would inevitably be Waitrose, but “pretending to be Sainsbury’s”.

Ed Miliband, by the same token, would “go to Waitrose but with his Lidl bag-for-life to carry round afterwards.”

Purseybear

Guess we're all punting on carswell winning clacton but paddy are offering 5-1 Cons there. Might be worth flutter if ukip slide under 2 party GE focus?

Ladbrokes 4-1 on ukip 1 seat & 6-1 for all between 2 and 5 seats look storming value to me based purely on polling. 12-1 for 0 seats is a cracking punt going on market & polling trends. May change but thats betting for you. There's value in this market http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-exact

On topic don't know about Labour for thanet. Don't see why ukip to tory is going to hurt him.

CD13

I vaguely remember why the young vote Green. A Green vote means a reversal, a wild roller coaster ride. The phrase 'anything and everything is possible' and the excitement that entails.

To the 'more mature' that phrase is more of a threat than a invite. I quite like central heating and food that doesn't rot before you get a chance to eat it.

But neither of the two parties really offers that option.

Purseybear

So looking at my last post if carswell loses clacton you'd think they'll get 0 seats. So take the 12-1 on 0 seats not the 5-1 at clacton.

peter_from_putney

Financier said:

Lord A's bit of political fun - published yesterday with his comments on his poll.

He asked which supermarket the party leaders would use:

Nigel Farage would be Aldi: “you know what you’re getting. Down to earth. Anyone can shop there.”

Nick Clegg would be the Co-op, with “all its nice fair trade values”

David Cameron would inevitably be Waitrose, but “pretending to be Sainsbury’s”.

Ed Miliband, by the same token, would “go to Waitrose but with his Lidl bag-for-life to carry round afterwards.”

Surely Ed Miliband would shop at the Co-op as a show of unity and also in gratitude for the millions they have shovelled into Labour's coffers over the years.

nigel4england

felix said:

MikeSmithson said:

felix said:

I like the phrase 'Labour is competitive' - even while their support has steadily fallen in the most recent polls.

In November when that poll was carried out UKIP was at its peak.

Fair point but that assumes most of the UKIP fall would go to Labour. In fact just as likely to go blue or not vote.

I can see Ukip polling 10-11% at the GE which means that there is 3-4% up for grabs going by the pollsters.

My theory is that the vast majority of it will go blue, I think the WWC have made up their mind about Labour and they will not be going back, conversely they will never vote Tory either and I think they will stick with Ukip.

I'm leaning towards Tories most seats on this basis.

Theuniondivvie

Sean_F said:

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

The SNP's 'The Scots are more pro-EU than r-UK' survives little scrutiny (today's YouGov)

If referendum held to leave EU would vote to stay in (net)

OA: +10
Lon: +24
RoS: +9
Mid/W: +9
N: +3
Sc: +11

London & the North are the outliers - the Scots are pretty much in line with the rest of the country.

Top quality sub-sampling there. Panelbase did a pair of side by side 1000 person polls, one for Scotland and one for the rest of the UK. They got, for the question, "The UK should
leave the European Union"

Scotland

Agree: 37%
Disagree: 42%
Net agreement: -5

rUK

Agree: 43%
Disagree: 39%
Net agreement: +4

Removing don't knows it was
Scotland: -6
Rest of UK: +5

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581wings.pdf

That's not a huge difference between Scotland and RUK.

Though still probably greater than the likely margin between the 2 main parties after the next GE, one of which will form the UK government.

If that result was replicated in an EU referendum, that not huge difference would mean the end of the Union (the UK one that is).

isam

People who hate Ukip think programmes that focus on negatives for Ukip are excellent, who knew?

Mikes laid farage at 4/9 here by backing lab and Tory... Best price 4/7 so can't say he has a bad bet

I'm on farage at 7/4

People interested enough to vote tactically will realise it's self. Defeating here. Cons don't vote labour in tight GEs or vice versa. Farage won't be undone by that. Maybe the greens and lib dems will get behind whoever is best placed to challenge him

SouthamObserver

CD13 said:

I vaguely remember why the young vote Green. A Green vote means a reversal, a wild roller coaster ride. The phrase 'anything and everything is possible' and the excitement that entails.

To the 'more mature' that phrase is more of a threat than a invite. I quite like central heating and food that doesn't rot before you get a chance to eat it.

But neither of the two parties really offers that option.

Maybe it is that the young have longer to live and they feel they have much more of a stake in the planet's future. The old can global warm and do all manner of other earth-degrading things in the knowledge that it won't really affect them.

HYUFD

TUD Of course the ironic thing was 4% more SNP voters in that poll wanted to leave the EU than stay in, SNP voters are in fact more anti EU than Scots as a whole, which will also pose problems for Sturgeon. It is of course possible that because the EU polls show it about 51-49 either way that Scotland could keep the UK in the EU even if England and Wales vote very narrowly to leave if Scotland has a big In vote!

isam

Purseybear said:

Guess we're all punting on carswell winning clacton but paddy are offering 5-1 Cons there. Might be worth flutter if ukip slide under 2 party GE focus?

Ladbrokes 4-1 on ukip 1 seat & 6-1 for all between 2 and 5 seats look storming value to me based purely on polling. 12-1 for 0 seats is a cracking punt going on market & polling trends. May change but thats betting for you. There's value in this market http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-exact

On topic don't know about Labour for thanet. Don't see why ukip to tory is going to hurt him.

It you backed 12/1no seat 4/1 one seat and 6/1 2,3,4 &5 you're taking 2/11 under 5.5 seats which is available at 5/6 so your 'storming value' is actually the biggest mug bet of all time

Alanbrooke

SouthamObserver said:

CD13 said:

I vaguely remember why the young vote Green. A Green vote means a reversal, a wild roller coaster ride. The phrase 'anything and everything is possible' and the excitement that entails.

To the 'more mature' that phrase is more of a threat than a invite. I quite like central heating and food that doesn't rot before you get a chance to eat it.

But neither of the two parties really offers that option.

Maybe it is that the young have longer to live and they feel they have much more of a stake in the planet's future. The old can global warm and do all manner of other earth-degrading things in the knowledge that it won't really affect them.

So you're saying oldies don't care about their children and grandchildren ? Can't really see that myself, I get fing annoyed with Cameron because he's shafting the younger generation.

SouthamObserver

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

CD13 said:

I vaguely remember why the young vote Green. A Green vote means a reversal, a wild roller coaster ride. The phrase 'anything and everything is possible' and the excitement that entails.

To the 'more mature' that phrase is more of a threat than a invite. I quite like central heating and food that doesn't rot before you get a chance to eat it.

But neither of the two parties really offers that option.

Maybe it is that the young have longer to live and they feel they have much more of a stake in the planet's future. The old can global warm and do all manner of other earth-degrading things in the knowledge that it won't really affect them.

So you're saying oldies don't care about their children and grandchildren ? Can't really see that myself, I get fing annoyed with Cameron because he's shafting the younger generation.

I am providing an alternative explanation.

But by your own logic, surely if Cameron ends up as PM (or, I would guess, Miliband) after the next GE, doesn't that prove my point?

Flightpath

Murray can only hurt Farage if he does not attract votes. He may hurt The MRLP.
The act of parody might hurt Farage of course.
It seems odd to suggest that Labour might benefit from anti UKIP sentiment when its also suggested that UKIP are going out of their way to attract Northern WWC labour votes based on the same prospectus that OGH says is hurting them in Thanet.

At the end of the day the voters of Thanet have the self respect of Kent in their hands.

rogerh

Re Comres poll LD numbers.Can't understand how LD can be 8 for GB but only 7 for England.Surely LD shares in Scotland and Wales are under 8 not over 8?

Flightpath

SouthamObserver said:

CD13 said:

I vaguely remember why the young vote Green. A Green vote means a reversal, a wild roller coaster ride. The phrase 'anything and everything is possible' and the excitement that entails.

To the 'more mature' that phrase is more of a threat than a invite. I quite like central heating and food that doesn't rot before you get a chance to eat it.

But neither of the two parties really offers that option.

Maybe it is that the young have longer to live and they feel they have much more of a stake in the planet's future. The old can global warm and do all manner of other earth-degrading things in the knowledge that it won't really affect them.

No - its just that the young haven't a clue.

isam

Carswell on a different page to ukip

Laura Pitel (@laurapitel)
24/02/2015 08:12
Douglas Carswell strikes out alone again: mass immigration has been "a story of success" thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/co…

Then again...

Douglas Carswell MP (@DouglasCarswell)
24/02/2015 08:14
.@laurapitel Laura, utter nonsense. My article reflects party policy 100%. Quit stirring

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

TUD Of course the ironic thing was 4% more SNP voters in that poll wanted to leave the EU than stay in, SNP voters are in fact more anti EU than Scots as a whole, which will also pose problems for Sturgeon. It is of course possible that because the EU polls show it about 51-49 either way that Scotland could keep the UK in the EU even if England and Wales vote very narrowly to leave if Scotland has a big In vote!

An EU referendum in Scotland will surely be all about independence rather than EU membership. The SNP will frame it as the perfect way to get a second referendum, so it would be a huge surprise if many SNP supporters end up voting to leave.

The really interesting thing is what happens in practice should Scotland vote to stay in and the UK as a whole votes to leave.

rcs1000

Financier said:

Lord A's bit of political fun - published yesterday with his comments on his poll.

He asked which supermarket the party leaders would use:

Nigel Farage would be Aldi: “you know what you’re getting. Down to earth. Anyone can shop there.”

Nick Clegg would be the Co-op, with “all its nice fair trade values”

David Cameron would inevitably be Waitrose, but “pretending to be Sainsbury’s”.

Ed Miliband, by the same token, would “go to Waitrose but with his Lidl bag-for-life to carry round afterwards.”

So: Nigel Farage is the only one who would be shopping at immigrant store...

SquareRoot

Alanbrooke said:

SouthamObserver said:

CD13 said:

I vaguely remember why the young vote Green. A Green vote means a reversal, a wild roller coaster ride. The phrase 'anything and everything is possible' and the excitement that entails.

To the 'more mature' that phrase is more of a threat than a invite. I quite like central heating and food that doesn't rot before you get a chance to eat it.

But neither of the two parties really offers that option.

Maybe it is that the young have longer to live and they feel they have much more of a stake in the planet's future. The old can global warm and do all manner of other earth-degrading things in the knowledge that it won't really affect them.

So you're saying oldies don't care about their children and grandchildren ? Can't really see that myself, I get fing annoyed with Cameron because he's shafting the younger generation.

Very "tim"esque.. putting words in other peoples mouths....

SouthamObserver

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

Alistair said:

CarlottaVance said:

The SNP's 'The Scots are more pro-EU than r-UK' survives little scrutiny (today's YouGov)

If referendum held to leave EU would vote to stay in (net)

OA: +10
Lon: +24
RoS: +9
Mid/W: +9
N: +3
Sc: +11

London & the North are the outliers - the Scots are pretty much in line with the rest of the country.

Top quality sub-sampling there. Panelbase did a pair of side by side 1000 person polls, one for Scotland and one for the rest of the UK. They got, for the question, "The UK should
leave the European Union"

Scotland

Agree: 37%
Disagree: 42%
Net agreement: -5

rUK

Agree: 43%
Disagree: 39%
Net agreement: +4

Removing don't knows it was
Scotland: -6
Rest of UK: +5

http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581wings.pdf

That's not a huge difference between Scotland and RUK.

Though still probably greater than the likely margin between the 2 main parties after the next GE, one of which will form the UK government.

If that result was replicated in an EU referendum, that not huge difference would mean the end of the Union (the UK one that is).

How will that work? The SNP leadership knew of the Tory referendum pledge when they stated that the referendum was a once in a lifetime opportunity.

HYUFD

SO It would not be a surprise at all, on most nationalist forums most SNP voters are just as anti Brussels as they are anti Westminster, after all if you want independence you may as well go the whole hog, and Sturgeon has a ticking timebomb under her nose!

Flightpath

Slackbladder said:

another_richard said:

peter_from_putney said:

If Farage is seriously at risk of losing Thanet South then UKIP really are in trouble seats-wise come the GE. After all, leaving aside their two incumbent MPs (only one of whom appears likely to be re-elected), the Great Leader pretty much has the pick of the bunch surely.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.

I think UKIP will get a few surprise wins while missing out on high profile targets - I think their chances are overrated in Thurrock for example.

In much the same way that there have usually been a few surprise Lib / SDP / LibDem gains at each election.

Which raises the issue of the future of UKIP if they get one or two MPs, but Farage isn't one of them.

They fight like ferrets in a sack for party leader and thus top of the party list in the next Euros. That MEPs salary is a nice little earner. Such an earner that Farage might still be one of the ferrets.

coolagorna

Only had one bet at each of the last two GE...both were
people I wanted to win but both also seemed fair value too
and both won (though both only fairly narrowly)

But after backing George at 6/4 to win Bethnal Green and
Caroline at 5/6 to win Pavilion im struggling to find a similar
left wing, quite likely to win but also value bet in 2015

Both the above two in a double would be value in Bradford
and Brighton again if that was only allowed but ive got a feeling one might lose this
time anyway and neither look great value individually

philiph

Purseybear said:

peter_from_putney said:

CarlottaVance said:

Just been YouGoved - one of their regular 'what positive things have you heard about..list of food outlets.

Before that got started was a two stage VI question - Who would you vote for in GE, followed by 'Thinking about your specific constituency'.....I supplied same answer to both - wonder if I'd have got a different poll if I'd supplied different answers?

The question I would like to ask Peter Kellner is: "Why do YG's VI figures move within such an incredibly narrow band, week after week, month after month and is there any aspect about your company's methodology which brings this about?"

Me too. Polls should move around a bit. Daily polling that doesn't budge makes me ultra wary. Kind of building up a PL and Div 1 of pollsters. Or maybe just phone pollsters are safer proposition for punters?

I thought I heard ages ago that the YouGov daily Poll was made from combining the Poll results from two days. 50% from the day and 50% from the day before, which would help to explain the turgid nature of the movements.

However, I may be completely wrong, but it makes sense from a cost point of view on a Daily Poll.