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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting that Farage won’t do it in Thanet South is starting
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting that Farage won’t do it in Thanet South is starting to look like a good proposition
I’ve just caught up with the excellent BBC2 programme that was screened on Sunday night – “Meet the Ukippers” which focuses on Thanet South where Nigel Farage is the party’s candidate. It’s really worth watching and gives a great flavour of the battle that is going on.
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I have to say I don't agree...every political party gets a rent a mob these days. Think how they secure the party conferences. I didn't see in that documentary anything that indicated anything more than the standard rent a mob. Cameron would get the same if he rocked up.
I actually didn't really think the documentary was that interesting either. It showed up UKIP organisation for basically being a group of oldies that were very much of the amateur / busy-bodies variety, but not sure that is particularly revealing...that was my presumption, that outside of media savvy Farage, most of UKIP is run like a bowls club worrying about the youth hanging out around the back on a Friday night and convinced the worst will happen i.e that only a matter of time before out of their heads on cheap cider and drugs that they will burn down the club house in between having lots of random hook-ups.
On this basis, it seems doubtful UKIP will win more than a handful of seats at best and quite probably only one or two. Looking at the betting market the best bet currently on offer might be Paddy Power's FEWER than 5.5 seats on offer at 5/6 or 1.83 decimal.
DYOR.
light. Who would have thought it?
It is also inevitable that the establishment and MSM monstering of UKIP will result in less voters admitting they will vote UKIP, ie an increasingly shy UKIP tendency.
I thought the Ashcroft constituency poll that had UKIP ahead on three of the four polls but then put the tories adhead when adjusting, presumably on the assumption of shy tories, when they could equally validly have adjusted the other way, was something of a parable of modern polling.
I agree with Mr Hitchens that the purpose of opinion polls is now to attempt to influence not reflect the electorate.
Unsightly seeing leading politicians doing a show and dance to get a job, Dispatches had to insert a lot of caveats explaining that both made a lot of things very clear in regards to any possible role.
If referendum held to leave EU would vote to stay in (net)
OA: +10
Lon: +24
RoS: +9
Mid/W: +9
N: +3
Sc: +11
London & the North are the outliers - the Scots are pretty much in line with the rest of the country.
Before that got started was a two stage VI question - Who would you vote for in GE, followed by 'Thinking about your specific constituency'.....I supplied same answer to both - wonder if I'd have got a different poll if I'd supplied different answers?
The sort of people who will vote Al Murray will be those who are anti-politics and want to take the piss out of Farage. It won't hurt him but it will possibly hurt his opponent.
Theoretically I'd expect Farage to get a boost because a leader generally does and Labour voters will conclude the best option to sabotage the Tories is to vote purple.
So Farage should win.
And to think they held it five years ago.
leave the European Union"
Scotland
Agree: 37%
Disagree: 42%
Net agreement: -5
rUK
Agree: 43%
Disagree: 39%
Net agreement: +4
Removing don't knows it was
Scotland: -6
Rest of UK: +5
http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/F6581wings.pdf
http://sports.coral.co.uk/political-specials/uk/uk-politics/general-election-2015-to-be-an-mp-after-the-election-2476356.html
As to Thanet South, anti-UKIP tactical voting hasn't really materialised in by-elections, which is where you'd expect to see it. And, if you vote Conservative here, you're voting for a candidate whose views are much the same as Farage's.
I do think that Carswell is safe, other than that it may well be one of the lower profile seats that puts in the second kipper, somewhere unexpected.
Having to campaign in Thanet intensively himself will be quite a distraction for Farage from the national campaign.
"This from last week's Ashcroft poll
@LordAshroft national poll. Some good +ve numbers for LAB here an bad ones for Farage/UKIP pic.twitter.com/kpfuLCcXhB
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)
February 16, 2015"
It strikes me that the one of the few areas where things might change before the election is Ed's leadership ratings. The parties have reached saturation point as has Cameron Farage and Clegg's personal ratings. Only Ed and the Green leader whose name escapes me could spring a surprise and show an appeal we haven't yet seen. Rather like we saw with Clegg in 2010 personal appeal can be a very fickle thing
A more realistic examination seems to indicate that it would now be a minor surprise if Farage gets elected.
Looking like yesterday's Ashcroft poll was an outlier of spectacular proportions. For me Labour being 6 ahead in England clearly indicated a sampling issue. Never mind we have his next clutch of seat polls to look forward to next Wednesday.
I think Farage is in danger of losing some of his USP and being a bit more like all the others. He has shown an ability in the past to articulate the public mood of a largish section of the population who feel ignored by the more metropolitan parties but he has struggled to do that recently. He really needs an issue that catches the public's ear.
And his truly awful performance in Buckingham at the last election needs to be taken into account as well. I don't think he will make it.
I am inciting Fox jr to vote Green in Norwich South. I have a few quid on, and every little helps...
The drift down depends on Ukip being ignored and they're not being. They appear to be an amateur bunch and a little disorganised, but you can say that about the Greens and we used to say the same about the LDs.
However, the other two attract different demographic (posher and younger) so are more media friendly. But the oldies vote.
I think you're all very brave to vet on politics at the moment. I wish you luck and hope the adrenaline rush makes up for any minor losses.
Like Mike I also caught up with the Kippers film last night. Very interesting. What struck me most was the age profile - everybody seemed to be in their 60s or later. Maybe this is because a lot of people come to Thanet to retire, or maybe this is true of UKIP on a wider stage. Obviously this is an age group that votes.
"Morning all and I fully expect Farage to make it 7 out of 7 glorious defeats at General Elections. Douglas Carswell will be UKIP's parliamentary representative and we don't want him back. His punishment for being a traitorous pig dog is to spend the next 20 years sitting on the Labour benches."
When I read Easterross's posts I'm always reminded that Scotland must see UK elections as a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom they know nothing.
And before you Kippers all rush off to board the Outrage Bus, I am most definitely not saying Nigel Farage = Nick Griffin. Or that UKIP = BNP. Just pointing out party leadership is not a gauarantee of sufficient increased vote share to get over the line. As it won't help Natalie Bennet for the Greens. Nor Nick Clegg for the smaller Liberal Democrats party....
83% of UKIP VI would vote to leave the EU (7% stay in,)
BUT if DC renegotiates UK's EU terms, that figure falls to 63% (23% stay in),
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2007
There is an identifiable uptick for the Conservatives in 2011 but no uptick for the Conservatives in 2007 or the Lib Dems in either elections. The 2011 Conservative uptick is fairly small (couple of points) and should be taken in the context of polling before the Short Campaign being a historic low for the Tories.
The evidence is not there for the secondary parties benefiting from increased television exposure and getting a noticeable increase in voting share.
In much the same way that there have usually been a few surprise Lib / SDP / LibDem gains at each election.
How are things at the coal face? Still forcing yourself to drink champagne and do next to nothing all day in Monte Carlo?
Do you think your wee cousin Ian Murray will hang on or get rogered in Edinburgh South, the fate potentially facing so many SLAB MPs?
Trying to remember how many seats I reckoned UKIP would get. I think I went for 4.
*Technically it was a gain as notionally it was a Tory seat.
Similarly the average LD loss to UKIP is 11.1, down from 11.8.
Also the LD loss to Green is 13.4, down from 15.7 and so LD retention is 27.8, up from 26.1.
Good morning. He is not my cousin. I'd be vey disappointed if he didn't win. My only two bets on this election are on Ann Begg and him. If you were anyone else I'd ask if you had any insight but I suspect it would be the kiss of death and I owe it to my cousin not to damage his chances.
"If you're going to back SLAB those are not the worse constituencies to do it in./"
Thank's. I got just worse than even money on both. 10/11 or thereabout
He asked which supermarket the party leaders would use:
Nigel Farage would be Aldi: “you know what you’re getting. Down to earth. Anyone can shop there.”
Nick Clegg would be the Co-op, with “all its nice fair trade values”
David Cameron would inevitably be Waitrose, but “pretending to be Sainsbury’s”.
Ed Miliband, by the same token, would “go to Waitrose but with his Lidl bag-for-life to carry round afterwards.”
Ladbrokes 4-1 on ukip 1 seat & 6-1 for all between 2 and 5 seats look storming value to me based purely on polling. 12-1 for 0 seats is a cracking punt going on market & polling trends. May change but thats betting for you. There's value in this market http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-exact
On topic don't know about Labour for thanet. Don't see why ukip to tory is going to hurt him.
To the 'more mature' that phrase is more of a threat than a invite. I quite like central heating and food that doesn't rot before you get a chance to eat it.
But neither of the two parties really offers that option.
My theory is that the vast majority of it will go blue, I think the WWC have made up their mind about Labour and they will not be going back, conversely they will never vote Tory either and I think they will stick with Ukip.
I'm leaning towards Tories most seats on this basis.
If that result was replicated in an EU referendum, that not huge difference would mean the end of the Union (the UK one that is).
Mikes laid farage at 4/9 here by backing lab and Tory... Best price 4/7 so can't say he has a bad bet
I'm on farage at 7/4
People interested enough to vote tactically will realise it's self. Defeating here. Cons don't vote labour in tight GEs or vice versa. Farage won't be undone by that. Maybe the greens and lib dems will get behind whoever is best placed to challenge him
But by your own logic, surely if Cameron ends up as PM (or, I would guess, Miliband) after the next GE, doesn't that prove my point?
The act of parody might hurt Farage of course.
It seems odd to suggest that Labour might benefit from anti UKIP sentiment when its also suggested that UKIP are going out of their way to attract Northern WWC labour votes based on the same prospectus that OGH says is hurting them in Thanet.
At the end of the day the voters of Thanet have the self respect of Kent in their hands.
Laura Pitel (@laurapitel)
24/02/2015 08:12
Douglas Carswell strikes out alone again: mass immigration has been "a story of success" thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/co…
Then again...
Douglas Carswell MP (@DouglasCarswell)
24/02/2015 08:14
.@laurapitel Laura, utter nonsense. My article reflects party policy 100%. Quit stirring
The really interesting thing is what happens in practice should Scotland vote to stay in and the UK as a whole votes to leave.
people I wanted to win but both also seemed fair value too
and both won (though both only fairly narrowly)
But after backing George at 6/4 to win Bethnal Green and
Caroline at 5/6 to win Pavilion im struggling to find a similar
left wing, quite likely to win but also value bet in 2015
Both the above two in a double would be value in Bradford
and Brighton again if that was only allowed but ive got a feeling one might lose this
time anyway and neither look great value individually
However, I may be completely wrong, but it makes sense from a cost point of view on a Daily Poll.