I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.
One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”
A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.
To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
So an easy run in for the Blues in Oxford West and Abingdon then......
I wonder if there are any seats the LibDems have written off in this strategy?
Redcar Burnley Large chunks of Scotland ...
I note it says "almost every seat it does not currently hold". Which suggest there is just one, somewhere, they think they can sneak....
Which?
Watford. (However I think Richard Harrington will hold it.)
I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.
One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”
A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.
To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
So an easy run in for the Blues in Oxford West and Abingdon then......
I wonder if there are any seats the LibDems have written off in this strategy?
Redcar Burnley Large chunks of Scotland ...
I note it says "almost every seat it does not currently hold". Which suggest there is just one, somewhere, they think they can sneak....
Mr. 1000, and do those tree cores show 2014 to be the hottest year ever?
I'd be surprised, if so. Natural variation has accounted for temperatures hotter than those currently experienced, and colder than those currently experienced. There is no compelling evidence. The IPCC got its predictions drastically wrong in its 4th report, then upgraded its confidence in its own forecasts for the 5th report.
I have no idea, I'm just pointing out that we have an unbroken record of something going back 40,000 years which correlates quite well with temperature.
Plato and I have pointed out that we don't.
I agree that the Yamal samples are small.
But if you look at the http://ltrr.arizona.edu/ you can see how many samples they have by year. And, I'm not claiming they're perfect or they allow you to impute temperatures with any great precision (and we know in any given year there will be many, many other factors), but the fact remains that there are literally hundreds of samples for each year going back millenia.
I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.
One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”
A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.
To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
So an easy run in for the Blues in Oxford West and Abingdon then......
I wonder if there are any seats the LibDems have written off in this strategy?
Redcar Burnley Large chunks of Scotland ...
I note it says "almost every seat it does not currently hold". Which suggest there is just one, somewhere, they think they can sneak....
Which?
Watford. (However I think Richard Harrington will hold it.)
And kle4 - I assumed it was Watford with an outside chance of Montgomeryshire - but it would be nice to have someone confirm it - for betting purposes. OGH?
I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.
One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”
A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.
To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
Eek -- according to that article, the Lib Dems are privately saying 30 seats would constitute a "good night".
In private, they appear to be quite realistic about their chances, which shows some sense at least.
We risk the start of a whole new argument if the LDs are equating themselves with Hannibal. I am not sure if the PB Carthaginians will approve.
I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.
One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”
A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.
To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
Eek -- according to that article, the Lib Dems are privately saying 30 seats would constitute a "good night".
In private, they appear to be quite realistic about their chances, which shows some sense at least.
We risk the start of a whole new argument if the LDs are equating themselves with Hannibal. I am not sure if the PB Carthaginians will approve.
No, the Lib Dems are equating themselves with the Romans who gave Hannibal the thrashing to end all thrashings at Zama.
Ohh, you're on dangerous territory there - the Yamal handful of tree ring data is laughably small. The *fingers of one hand* would be more comprehensive as an evidence set. Whatever one thinks of Mr Booker - the data set remains vanishingly small to support the AGW agenda.
Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.
Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.
Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?
I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
I'm not an expert, but my understanding is that going back 10,000 years or so we have literally hundreds of tree samples for each year. Once you get to the back end of the period, it's obviously a much smaller number.
Now, I know that tree rings are not thermometers, and the wifth of individual year's growths can vary for many different reasons, but they do give us a reasonable idea of the fluctuations we see from year-to-year.
I'm not saying this to make any particular point - only to point out that we do have quite a lot of evidence of annual temperatures (albeit with significant margins for error).
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/06/manns-tree-ring-proxy-train-wreck/ ''Steve McIntyre helpfully providing reconstructions based on tree rings which demonstrate how, without the benefit of Mike’s scientifically dubious “nature trick”, the hockey stick simply disappears – tree rings demonstrably don’t correlate with temperature.''
McIntyre is a statistician - a profession which the IPCC would prefer to give the black spot to.
It's clear the Tories don't wan the debates. So what DO they want? What is David Cameron's alternative?
My guess? A campaign where large posters and ads define Ed Miliband as a huge danger to the recovery. "Ed Miliband - why would you take that risk?" Without an occasion to dispel that narrative (the debates), it risks being very persuasive, based on Ed Miliband playing to that stereotype for the past four and a half years... Labour at the top still tearing itself apart over what exactly they ARE supposed to be offering the voters in a manifesto in a few weeks time just plays into that strategy.
Certainly, playing the Ed Miliband card resonates with what I am hearing on the doorstep.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/06/manns-tree-ring-proxy-train-wreck/ ''Steve McIntyre helpfully providing reconstructions based on tree rings which demonstrate how, without the benefit of Mike’s scientifically dubious “nature trick”, the hockey stick simply disappears – tree rings demonstrably don’t correlate with temperature.''
McIntyre is a statistician - a profession which the IPCC would prefer to give the black spot to.
I'm currently reading Global Crisis, about the effects of the Mini Ice Age in the Seventeenth Century, and Geoffrey Parker makes the point that tree ring widths vary for many different reasons: hot and very dry, not much growth... cold and wet, not much growth.
So, I would be the first to admit they are far from perfect. There is no doubt, as well, that people like Mann grossly manipulated the data, and - to get the answers they wanted - excluded tree data they didn't like.
My point, simply, is that there is a global resource of tree data, with over 2 million samples, giving us data from across the world.
So, I would have thought - even if it hasn't been done properly yet - that we could achieve something with a reasonable degree of confidence in the future,
It's clear the Tories don't wan the debates. So what DO they want? What is David Cameron's alternative?
My guess? A campaign where large posters and ads define Ed Miliband as a huge danger to the recovery. "Ed Miliband - why would you take that risk?" Without an occasion to dispel that narrative (the debates), it risks being very persuasive, based on Ed Miliband playing to that stereotype for the past four and a half years... Labour at the top still tearing itself apart over what exactly they ARE supposed to be offering the voters in a manifesto in a few weeks time just plays into that strategy.
Certainly, playing the Ed Miliband card resonates with what I am hearing on the doorstep.
But other views are available....
But whether people agree with the criticism of Ed being a useless dud, and whether it works well for THE TORIES for them to be the ones making the criticisms, are two different things.
In my experience, these days when a party goes negative about the other side, the most common reaction among voters is something along the lines of "well they obviously don't have anything positive to say about themselves if they're just resorting to attacking the other guy". Though in fairness, this does cut both ways: the MANY people who think the Tories are nasty and out-of-touch and will make too harsh cuts, are not going to be too impressed if Labour's whole message boils down to saying that without any alternative of what Labour would do differently being stated. Ordinary Joe Public might just whinge in a generic way about a particular politician or party, but they expect the politicians themselves to do something more than that.
As an aside: I warned earlier that I didn't think the Greek government would be able to pass the measures it would agree to. This FT article (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eea3fdee-ba9e-11e4-945d-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3SUoFi6Ek) shows the problems that SYRIZA has, and why I don't think there is a deal the government can do that is acceptable to its left wing:
Several members of Syriza’s extreme left faction criticised the agreement as a climbdown that had not been presented for approval by party structures such as the Central Committee. Manolis Glezos, a 94-year-old member of the European Parliament and Syriza’s most senior active politician, lashed out at the government for not fulfilling its pre-election promise to “annul the bailout, annul the troika (of bailout monitors from the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank) and annul all the austerity legislation.”
He said Greek officials were “renaming fish as meat” by using different terms to reference the unpopular loan programme “without changing the actual situation.”
Ohh, you're on dangerous territory there - the Yamal handful of tree ring data is laughably small. The *fingers of one hand* would be more comprehensive as an evidence set. Whatever one thinks of Mr Booker - the data set remains vanishingly small to support the AGW agenda.
Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.
Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.
Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?
I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
I'm not sure there are any trees around which are 40,000 years old or anywhere near it. You may be confusing this with 40,000 year old sediments laid down in a lake in Japan which have been studied by the University of Arizona. I do not think as yet it makes any claims about climate.
Ohh, you're on dangerous territory there - the Yamal handful of tree ring data is laughably small. The *fingers of one hand* would be more comprehensive as an evidence set. Whatever one thinks of Mr Booker - the data set remains vanishingly small to support the AGW agenda.
Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.
Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.
Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?
I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
I'm not sure there are any trees around which are 40,000 years old or anywhere near it. You may be confusing this with 40,000 year old sediments laid down in a lake in Japan which have been studied by the University of Arizona. I do not think as yet it makes any claims about climate.
Wasn't the Yamal scandal due to the fact that the researcher decided to ignore more than half the trees as they didn't fit what he was looking for?
It's clear the Tories don't wan the debates. So what DO they want? What is David Cameron's alternative?
An election campaign? How did we manage all those years without debates? Its not as if politicians do not stand up in Parliament every day and debate with each other under the shadow of TV cameras.
Ohh, you're on dangerous territory there - the Yamal handful of tree ring data is laughably small. The *fingers of one hand* would be more comprehensive as an evidence set. Whatever one thinks of Mr Booker - the data set remains vanishingly small to support the AGW agenda.
Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.
Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.
Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?
I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
I'm not sure there are any trees around which are 40,000 years old or anywhere near it. You may be confusing this with 40,000 year old sediments laid down in a lake in Japan which have been studied by the University of Arizona. I do not think as yet it makes any claims about climate.
The only one I can think of is (quoting Wikipedia) "Swamp kauri, sometimes marketed as "ancient kauri", are prehistoric kauri trees (Agathis australis), buried and preserved in peat up to 50,000 years ago in New Zealand's North Island.Buried under a peat swamp by an unexplained act of nature at the end of the last Ice Age, the trees have survived the centuries underground, sealed in a chemically balanced environment that has preserved the timber in perfect condition."
They don't have to find 40,000 year old trees. (Or even 11,000 year old ones.)
They only have to find planks of wood (often fossilised), and to match parts of those planks with other things we do know about. And every bit of wood we get gives us a better picture. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendrochronology
I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.
One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”
A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.
To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
So an easy run in for the Blues in Oxford West and Abingdon then......
I wonder if there are any seats the LibDems have written off in this strategy?
Redcar Burnley Large chunks of Scotland ...
I note it says "almost every seat it does not currently hold". Which suggest there is just one, somewhere, they think they can sneak....
Which?
Watford. (However I think Richard Harrington will hold it.)
And kle4 - I assumed it was Watford with an outside chance of Montgomeryshire - but it would be nice to have someone confirm it - for betting purposes. OGH?
Hopefully it's Montgomery - as I followed OGH's betting tip.
I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.
One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”
A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.
To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
So an easy run in for the Blues in Oxford West and Abingdon then......
I wonder if there are any seats the LibDems have written off in this strategy?
Redcar Burnley Large chunks of Scotland ...
I note it says "almost every seat it does not currently hold". Which suggest there is just one, somewhere, they think they can sneak....
Which?
Watford. (However I think Richard Harrington will hold it.)
And kle4 - I assumed it was Watford with an outside chance of Montgomeryshire - but it would be nice to have someone confirm it - for betting purposes. OGH?
Hopefully it's Montgomery - as I followed OGH's betting tip.
Montgomery will not be a LibDem gain in 2015 (and nor will Watford).
I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.
One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”
A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.
To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
So an easy run in for the Blues in Oxford West and Abingdon then......
I wonder if there are any seats the LibDems have written off in this strategy?
Redcar Burnley Large chunks of Scotland ...
I note it says "almost every seat it does not currently hold". Which suggest there is just one, somewhere, they think they can sneak....
Which?
Watford. (However I think Richard Harrington will hold it.)
And kle4 - I assumed it was Watford with an outside chance of Montgomeryshire - but it would be nice to have someone confirm it - for betting purposes. OGH?
Hopefully it's Montgomery - as I followed OGH's betting tip.
It's clear the Tories don't wan the debates. So what DO they want? What is David Cameron's alternative?
My guess? A campaign where large posters and ads define Ed Miliband as a huge danger to the recovery. "Ed Miliband - why would you take that risk?" Without an occasion to dispel that narrative (the debates), it risks being very persuasive, based on Ed Miliband playing to that stereotype for the past four and a half years... Labour at the top still tearing itself apart over what exactly they ARE supposed to be offering the voters in a manifesto in a few weeks time just plays into that strategy.
Certainly, playing the Ed Miliband card resonates with what I am hearing on the doorstep.
But other views are available....
But whether people agree with the criticism of Ed being a useless dud, and whether it works well for THE TORIES for them to be the ones making the criticisms, are two different things.
In my experience, these days when a party goes negative about the other side, the most common reaction among voters is something along the lines of "well they obviously don't have anything positive to say about themselves if they're just resorting to attacking the other guy". Though in fairness, this does cut both ways: the MANY people who think the Tories are nasty and out-of-touch and will make too harsh cuts, are not going to be too impressed if Labour's whole message boils down to saying that without any alternative of what Labour would do differently being stated. Ordinary Joe Public might just whinge in a generic way about a particular politician or party, but they expect the politicians themselves to do something more than that.
On the cuts, its basically - "shit happens - under David Cameron". Or "shit still happens - under Ed Miliband". Both are inevitable (unless you live in Scotland). It's just that one has a decent track record of delivery. The other comes with a side order of crushed hopes and bitter disappointment - and buyers remorse that they should have had the Green salad after all...
Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.
Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.
Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?
I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
I bet that Cammo is red faced, and if he isn't, then he knew what she was up to.
How many more times are you going to repeat the repeats of a Telegraph story which is about a '' “cross-Government working group on anti-Muslim hatred” set up by Lady Warsi and Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister. '' A talking shop is not 'the heart of whitehall' - no matter who sits on it.
The tortuous nature of the Telegraph report can be judged by is comment on planning permission for a mosque - '' The planning appeal will be decided by the Department for Communities and Local Government, the same ministry which runs the working group on anti-Muslim hatred on which Mr Ahmed sits, although it reports to the Deputy Prime Minister. The decision will be announced next month'' One of the people attacked by the report is this man - http://www.thepressnews.co.uk/press-news/an-amazing-day-at-palace-for-iqbal/ ''WEST Yorkshires Batleybased Deputy Lord Lieutenant Iqbal Bhana was presented with his OBE by Prince Charles at Buckingham Palace last week.'' He was of course awarded these posts and honours by a Labour Government.
Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.
Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.
Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?
I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
Wasn't it 6 tree cores?
Professor/Doctor/Mr Mann used six out of 20 or so tree cores from one place in Eastern Siberia in his temperature studies.
The University of Arizona has more than 2 million samples from all over the world.
We should - hopefully - be able to get better data in the future than we have in the past.
Mr. kle4, yeah, not much of a dark lord fan myself. Although I may have one as a villain for Sir Edric at some point.
Done right, or played with, it can work fine so comedically I think it can be great, it's just as a fan of the genre I did come across it a bit too much in too generic a fashion. I even wrote a book several years ago where the twist (done many times by others) was that the antagonist to the heroes, most of whom were decent people, was despite that not the dark lord they thought, just, well, a normal sort of ruler who happens to be opposed to them, albeit with some dark lordy type abilities.
Very much the premise of Glen Cook's (original) Black Company Trilogy.
Mr. kle4, yeah, not much of a dark lord fan myself. Although I may have one as a villain for Sir Edric at some point.
Done right, or played with, it can work fine so comedically I think it can be great, it's just as a fan of the genre I did come across it a bit too much in too generic a fashion. I even wrote a book several years ago where the twist (done many times by others) was that the antagonist to the heroes, most of whom were decent people, was despite that not the dark lord they thought, just, well, a normal sort of ruler who happens to be opposed to them, albeit with some dark lordy type abilities.
Very much the premise of Glen Cook's (original) Black Company Trilogy.
Interesting - I own it but haven't got around to reading it, so should probably correct that.
He said Greek officials were “renaming fish as meat” by using different terms to reference the unpopular loan programme “without changing the actual situation.”
Why on earth are the lenders bothering to negotiate with this rabble?
It's clear the Tories don't wan the debates. So what DO they want? What is David Cameron's alternative?
My guess? A campaign where large posters and ads define Ed Miliband as a huge danger to the recovery. "Ed Miliband - why would you take that risk?" Without an occasion to dispel that narrative (the debates), it risks being very persuasive, based on Ed Miliband playing to that stereotype for the past four and a half years... Labour at the top still tearing itself apart over what exactly they ARE supposed to be offering the voters in a manifesto in a few weeks time just plays into that strategy.
Certainly, playing the Ed Miliband card resonates with what I am hearing on the doorstep.
But other views are available....
You mean the Tories would want to reduce the campaign to the most vulgar and superficial terms?
It's clear the Tories don't wan the debates. So what DO they want? What is David Cameron's alternative?
My guess? A campaign where large posters and ads define Ed Miliband as a huge danger to the recovery. "Ed Miliband - why would you take that risk?" Without an occasion to dispel that narrative (the debates), it risks being very persuasive, based on Ed Miliband playing to that stereotype for the past four and a half years... Labour at the top still tearing itself apart over what exactly they ARE supposed to be offering the voters in a manifesto in a few weeks time just plays into that strategy.
Certainly, playing the Ed Miliband card resonates with what I am hearing on the doorstep.
But other views are available....
You mean the Tories would want to reduce the campaign to the most vulgar and superficial terms?
Sounds plausible.
It's called politics. New Labour were rather good at it I recall....
Mr. kle4, only read the first two (still want to read The White Rose or whatever the third's called). The second, the name of which escapes me, has a fantastic character arc for Marron Shed [assuming I've got the name right, it's been a while since I read it].
Mr. Money, if fantasy's not your cup of tea, fair enough, though I would point out there's more to fantasy than just Tolkien's approach.
Grimdark is very popular, there's some nice comedy (Terry Pratchett, for example, is practically a subgenre by himself), fairytales also seem to be back in fashion. Of course, it's entirely possible and legitimate to like none of that, but fantasy = Tolkien is as mistaken as poetry = rhyming.
Mr. kle4, yeah, not much of a dark lord fan myself. Although I may have one as a villain for Sir Edric at some point.
Done right, or played with, it can work fine so comedically I think it can be great, it's just as a fan of the genre I did come across it a bit too much in too generic a fashion. I even wrote a book several years ago where the twist (done many times by others) was that the antagonist to the heroes, most of whom were decent people, was despite that not the dark lord they thought, just, well, a normal sort of ruler who happens to be opposed to them, albeit with some dark lordy type abilities.
Very much the premise of Glen Cook's (original) Black Company Trilogy.
Interesting - I own it but haven't got around to reading it, so should probably correct that.
Fantasy, and historical fiction are my favourite types of fiction. Horror can be good, too. I agree with George Martin's view that good horror writing shouldn't be about six ways to kill a vampire, or a graphic account of the rats eating Billy's genitalia.
I disagree with the article. There are no declared candidates against her and yet her curve is on a distinct downward trajectory already.
Not sure which curve you are looking at Tim, but if it's the betting price, the explanation is Bill - and more specifically the New York Post report about his latest indiscretions.
Many of us that had piled high our bets on Hilary simply had to run for cover. On balance, I felt the allegations would be unlikely to derail her, but simply couldn't take the chance. I still think the nomination is hers for the asking, but if the Bill problem gets too bad she may not ask.
If she doesn't run, it becomes a much more interesting betting heat. Can't believe the Dems are crazy enough to go for Warren, and Biden would lose to any half-decent Republican candidate. Maybe there is somebody else out there who can win for them, but my impression is Hilary's their only chance.
And I certainly don't regard her as any more than a 4/5 chance if she does run.
Mr. Charles, alas, I've got to get through a reasonably long to-read list of books I already own before I try anything else. I'll try and remember Moorcock's name, though it'll be months before I (probably) but anything else. And I've still got the second Stormlight Archive and Douglas Hulick's Sworn In Steel to get.
Mr. kle4, only read the first two (still want to read The White Rose or whatever the third's called). The second, the name of which escapes me, has a fantastic character arc for Marron Shed [assuming I've got the name right, it's been a while since I read it].
Shadows Linger. That's my joint favourite with Dreams of Steel (Book 5 in the series). The first 3 books are a self-contained trilogy, after which the series heads off in a completely different direction.
Mr. kle4, yeah, not much of a dark lord fan myself. Although I may have one as a villain for Sir Edric at some point.
Done right, or played with, it can work fine so comedically I think it can be great, it's just as a fan of the genre I did come across it a bit too much in too generic a fashion. I even wrote a book several years ago where the twist (done many times by others) was that the antagonist to the heroes, most of whom were decent people, was despite that not the dark lord they thought, just, well, a normal sort of ruler who happens to be opposed to them, albeit with some dark lordy type abilities.
Very much the premise of Glen Cook's (original) Black Company Trilogy.
Interesting - I own it but haven't got around to reading it, so should probably correct that.
Fantasy, and historical fiction are my favourite types of fiction. .
One reason I love historical fiction, in addition to just liking history, is that depending on which era it is, which setting and how many liberties the author takes, it contains many of the same elements of world building and strange, unknown cultures and amazing heroic happenings as fantasy novels anyway, particularly if one knows very little about a particular time period.
IIRC Guy Gavriel Kay exploits that particularly well, with ostensibly fantasy settings and made up places which are, however, not just reminiscent of real world cultures and histories, but essentially fantasy retellings of El Cid era Spain or something.
It is amusing when someone categorically denies something which is loud and clear on a recording or something. Happens more rarely than we sometimes think, as politicians are usually more careful in their language of denial.
Mr. 1000, and do those tree cores show 2014 to be the hottest year ever?
I'd be surprised, if so. Natural variation has accounted for temperatures hotter than those currently experienced, and colder than those currently experienced. There is no compelling evidence. The IPCC got its predictions drastically wrong in its 4th report, then upgraded its confidence in its own forecasts for the 5th report.
I have no idea, I'm just pointing out that we have an unbroken record of something going back 40,000 years which correlates quite well with temperature.
Plato and I have pointed out that we don't.
I think you may be talking at cross-purposes.
The Yarmal data set on which Michael Mann's hockey stick was thin to useless.
UoA may well have a better dataset (presumably based on the redwood) but Mann didn't use that for his theory
" I didn't say it; I don't remember saying it; it's not important that I said it; I didn't mean to say it".
How to change one's position on something 4 times in one breath.
Priceless!
He may have to play the Ernest Saunders Altzheimer's Defence.......
Why not employ, the I was pissed defence. On the other hand I'm trying to decide if Labour gaining more votes there is funnier than the loss of the seat.
Austin Mitchell story makes BBC news - huge threat from UKIP.
I was misquoted...
I wouldn't have been surprised if Austin Mitchell had switched to UKIP.
It was a truly artificial story, SeanF.
He was simply making the common and obvious point that anybody in a red rosette should win in G Grimbsby, but he used characteristically colorful language and of course that has been seized upon by those whose job it is to seize upon these things (and repeated here by those who see at their job to beat the Party drum wherever and whenever).
It will probably help UKIP, a little bit. You and I should be pleased, for different reasons.
Poor sod. Not only has he ruined his chances of election, now he's been outed as a Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate, the chances of any woman swiping right have been ruined too.
He said Greek officials were “renaming fish as meat” by using different terms to reference the unpopular loan programme “without changing the actual situation.”
Why on earth are the lenders bothering to negotiate with this rabble?
Austin Mitchell story makes BBC news - huge threat from UKIP.
I was misquoted...
I wouldn't have been surprised if Austin Mitchell had switched to UKIP.
It was a truly artificial story, SeanF.
He was simply making the common and obvious point that anybody in a red rosette should win in G Grimbsby, but he used characteristically colorful language and of course that has been seized upon by those whose job it is to seize upon these things (and repeated here by those who see at their job to beat the Party drum wherever and whenever).
Well said. While the specific example he gave was more offensive than most such scenarios, he wasn't wrong about the point he was making, so why all the fuss?
I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army" The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold. One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.” To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
Thank you for providing the reference to the FT, Mr Eagles. I fear the article is much weaker than some PB Tories like to think.
For a start the author, the FT political correspondent, Kiran Stacey, seems to think that the Liberal Democrats started out in 1983, which does not give one much confidence in his expertise.
Then the sources that he quotes are a "Liberal Democrat official", "a senior MP" and "a party strategist", which is pretty vague. Two of those three terms could have applied to me, at one time! I am not his source, of course.
Then Mr Stacey claims that the party has "just a few weeks to organise its ground level campaign teams." Oh indeed? For all that he is a "political correspondent", Mr Stacey seems to have little idea about how political parties operate.
And then there is his assertion that "the party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold." I wonder what the mechanism might be for doing that. It might be helpful if Mr Stacey - with his wonderful political insight - could have explained that to his readers.
I think there must be at least fifty people who post here on PB who could have cobbled together a more convincing story than the one that Mr Stacey has contrived.
It's clear the Tories don't wan the debates. So what DO they want? What is David Cameron's alternative?
My guess? A campaign where large posters and ads define Ed Miliband as a huge danger to the recovery. "Ed Miliband - why would you take that risk?" Without an occasion to dispel that narrative (the debates), it risks being very persuasive, based on Ed Miliband playing to that stereotype for the past four and a half years... Labour at the top still tearing itself apart over what exactly they ARE supposed to be offering the voters in a manifesto in a few weeks time just plays into that strategy.
Certainly, playing the Ed Miliband card resonates with what I am hearing on the doorstep.
But other views are available....
But whether people agree with the criticism of Ed being a useless dud, and whether it works well for THE TORIES for them to be the ones making the criticisms, are two different things.
In my experience, these days when a party goes negative about the other side, the most common reaction among voters is something along the lines of "well they obviously don't have anything positive to say about themselves if they're just resorting to attacking the other guy". Though in fairness, this does cut both ways: the MANY people who think the Tories are nasty and out-of-touch and will make too harsh cuts, are not going to be too impressed if Labour's whole message boils down to saying that without any alternative of what Labour would do differently being stated. Ordinary Joe Public might just whinge in a generic way about a particular politician or party, but they expect the politicians themselves to do something more than that.
I think that's right. As I've said before, most people that I meet are pretty sure how they'll vote, or that they'll not vote. But only about half of those (for all parties) are actually enthusiastic. Everyone else has taken on board the negative stuff about all sides and believe that it's mostly true. They are currently defaulting to "general sympathy" (for party or candidate) but they'd be up for a clear, positive vision of golden uplands.
The trouble is that if we're honest, Britain's medium-term outlook is quite difficult - it's not at all clear that we are really competitive. So all the vaguely responsible parties are being pretty cautious about what they offer, and people are correspondingly unenthused.
freshly baked (@_freshlybaked) 22/02/2015 18:21 How they do it at #WestHam VIDEO: How to treat fellow passengers! bit.ly/1CZo3PQ pic.twitter.com/R484sBatXK via @FootballFunnys #Chelsea
Poor sod. Not only has he ruined his chances of election, now he's been outed as a Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate, the chances of any woman swiping right have been ruined too.
IANACE, but one thing that intrigues me about using tree cores to discern past temperature is the implied correlation between ring width and temperature.
Surely the growth of a tree is promoted and hindered by many effects, not just temperature. For instance a localised particularly wet or dry season, or reduced sunlight due to atmospheric pollution (e.g. volcanoes).
Is the width of tree wings really a good analogue for temperature, especially at the degrees of precision being claimed?
I daresay the climate boffins have a good answer for this, but it;'s hard for me to see how localised variations cannot be discounted without massive samples.
Slightly more singer-songwriter than country, I would also heartily recommend Gretchen Peters for those that don't know her. Make a start with her recent albums "One to the Heart, One to the Head" and "Hello, Cruel World" which both showcase her bitter-sweet, black humour lyrics.
Poor sod. Not only has he ruined his chances of election, now he's been outed as a Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate, the chances of any woman swiping right have been ruined too.
But if he does get elected she might get to meet people of power and influence. She might think!
Poor sod. Not only has he ruined his chances of election, now he's been outed as a Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate, the chances of any woman swiping right have been ruined too.
Leaving the smearing of LD candidates to Tory activists who don't like canvassing in the rain, should we be surprised by any of this ?
It sounds like a bit of a negotiating ploy from the Party - I didn't think when the various formulae for debates were announced a few weeks ago that everyone or indeed anyone would be happy. It's more interesting how negatively the parties themselves view the debates given how critical they were last time.
I've always thought Cameron would be vulnerable when forced to publicly defend aspects of the Government's record - especially immigration - to a potentially hostile public audience. In all honesty, I think Cameron is weak when dealing with hostility (witness how he repeatedly twists and turns under the onslaughts from his own side) and while anyone can sound and look good in front of a friendly crowd, that can be controlled and organised.
All in all, I doubt Cameron will lose much sleep from not having a debate - he will be sent off to do stage-managed events in front of well-vetted crowds and contact with any hostile public will be kept to an absolute minimum.
Mr. Charles, alas, I've got to get through a reasonably long to-read list of books I already own before I try anything else. I'll try and remember Moorcock's name, though it'll be months before I (probably) but anything else. And I've still got the second Stormlight Archive and Douglas Hulick's Sworn In Steel to get.
Unlike my steampunk short story [not released], I found horror much harder to get into. Happy with the end result, mind.
His thing was that he created a character called "the Eternal Champion" with many different incarnations, which gave him the ability to write about multiple characters (Corum, Hawkmoon, Von Bek, Elric, Jerry Cornelius, etc)
Poor sod. Not only has he ruined his chances of election, now he's been outed as a Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate, the chances of any woman swiping right have been ruined too.
Poor sod. Not only has he ruined his chances of election, now he's been outed as a Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate, the chances of any woman swiping right have been ruined too.
I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army" The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold. One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.” To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
Thank you for providing the reference to the FT, Mr Eagles. I fear the article is much weaker than some PB Tories like to think.
For a start the author, the FT political correspondent, Kiran Stacey, seems to think that the Liberal Democrats started out in 1983, which does not give one much confidence in his expertise.
Then the sources that he quotes are a "Liberal Democrat official", "a senior MP" and "a party strategist", which is pretty vague. Two of those three terms could have applied to me, at one time! I am not his source, of course.
Then Mr Stacey claims that the party has "just a few weeks to organise its ground level campaign teams." Oh indeed? For all that he is a "political correspondent", Mr Stacey seems to have little idea about how political parties operate.
And then there is his assertion that "the party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold." I wonder what the mechanism might be for doing that. It might be helpful if Mr Stacey - with his wonderful political insight - could have explained that to his readers.
I think there must be at least fifty people who post here on PB who could have cobbled together a more convincing story than the one that Mr Stacey has contrived.
Six paragraphs - and not a single denial.
Your confirmation of the story is noted, senior LibDem official strategist.... ;-)
Leaving the smearing of LD candidates to Tory activists who don't like canvassing in the rain, should we be surprised by any of this ?
It sounds like a bit of a negotiating ploy from the Party - I didn't think when the various formulae for debates were announced a few weeks ago that everyone or indeed anyone would be happy. It's more interesting how negatively the parties themselves view the debates given how critical they were last time.
I've always thought Cameron would be vulnerable when forced to publicly defend aspects of the Government's record - especially immigration - to a potentially hostile public audience. In all honesty, I think Cameron is weak when dealing with hostility (witness how he repeatedly twists and turns under the onslaughts from his own side) and while anyone can sound and look good in front of a friendly crowd, that can be controlled and organised.
All in all, I doubt Cameron will lose much sleep from not having a debate - he will be sent off to do stage-managed events in front of well-vetted crowds and contact with any hostile public will be kept to an absolute minimum.
Yep , frit Dave will try and avoid any contact with real voters , how different to his attitude when he was a newly elected LofO back in 2006/2007
I disagree with the article. There are no declared candidates against her and yet her curve is on a distinct downward trajectory already.
Not sure which curve you are looking at Tim, but if it's the betting price, the explanation is Bill - and more specifically the New York Post report about his latest indiscretions.
Many of us that had piled high our bets on Hilary simply had to run for cover. On balance, I felt the allegations would be unlikely to derail her, but simply couldn't take the chance. I still think the nomination is hers for the asking, but if the Bill problem gets too bad she may not ask.
If she doesn't run, it becomes a much more interesting betting heat. Can't believe the Dems are crazy enough to go for Warren, and Biden would lose to any half-decent Republican candidate. Maybe there is somebody else out there who can win for them, but my impression is Hilary's their only chance.
And I certainly don't regard her as any more than a 4/5 chance if she does run.
She was always going to come under scrutiny and when it comes to the hurly burly of US domestic politics still has a divisiveness about her. Thats why I couldn't back her last time to get the nomination at short odds and couldn't back her this time.
There is a possibility that if she is vulnerable that someone will emerge outside the n ext couple of competitors in the betting.
The GOP market, as it always seems, is far more interesting, mainly due to the cartoon level misunderstandings we in this part of the world often have about the Republicans. I am still not convinced, despite trying to logic it out on a number of occasions, by Jeb Bush as its stands, nor by Rubio or Paul as it stands. Which leaves us your fella Walker, my favorite fat lad Christie and the disruptive force of 1 x Mike Huckabee. I don't think Huckabee will win but if he does run and the pockets are deep he might cause enough problems for others.
I think that's right. As I've said before, most people that I meet are pretty sure how they'll vote, or that they'll not vote. But only about half of those (for all parties) are actually enthusiastic.
Since you started saying that Labour's lead in the polls has declined by about 10 percentage points. How do you square that circle?
Mr. Charles, alas, I've got to get through a reasonably long to-read list of books I already own before I try anything else. I'll try and remember Moorcock's name, though it'll be months before I (probably) but anything else. And I've still got the second Stormlight Archive and Douglas Hulick's Sworn In Steel to get.
Unlike my steampunk short story [not released], I found horror much harder to get into. Happy with the end result, mind.
His thing was that he created a character called "the Eternal Champion" with many different incarnations, which gave him the ability to write about multiple characters (Corum, Hawkmoon, Von Bek, Elric, Jerry Cornelius, etc)
Another excellent fantasy series is Stephen Erikson's "Malazan books of the fallen", starting with "Gardens of the moon"; with the addition of I. C. Esslemont's additional books to the series. 15 books altogether in the series. You will need about 12 months of your time for straight read through.
Mr. Charles, alas, I've got to get through a reasonably long to-read list of books I already own before I try anything else. I'll try and remember Moorcock's name, though it'll be months before I (probably) but anything else. And I've still got the second Stormlight Archive and Douglas Hulick's Sworn In Steel to get.
Unlike my steampunk short story [not released], I found horror much harder to get into. Happy with the end result, mind.
His thing was that he created a character called "the Eternal Champion" with many different incarnations, which gave him the ability to write about multiple characters (Corum, Hawkmoon, Von Bek, Elric, Jerry Cornelius, etc)
Another excellent fantasy series is Stephen Erikson's "Malazan books of the fallen", starting with "Gardens of the moon"; with the addition of I. C. Esslemont', additional books to the series. 15 books altogether in the series. You will need about 12 months of your time for straight read through.
I found the first one tough going at first when I read it in my mid to late teens, structurally it was a bit weird and it is very unconventional, but they are indeed absorbing, unique and creative, if grim.
On the lighter, more tropey side of things, I've enjoyed in recent times Trudi Canavan's Black Magician Trilogy. It was one of the rare occasions - though less so as time goes on - to follow a female protagonist in a fantasy series.
Austin Mitchell story makes BBC news - huge threat from UKIP.
I was misquoted...
I wouldn't have been surprised if Austin Mitchell had switched to UKIP.
It was a truly artificial story, SeanF.
He was simply making the common and obvious point that anybody in a red rosette should win in G Grimbsby, but he used characteristically colorful language and of course that has been seized upon by those whose job it is to seize upon these things (and repeated here by those who see at their job to beat the Party drum wherever and whenever).
Well said. While the specific example he gave was more offensive than most such scenarios, he wasn't wrong about the point he was making, so why all the fuss?
Given that for the first time in political history the collective support for the three establishment parties could well fall below 50% of those eligible to vote at this next general election I would have thought there has never been a time when such arrogant condescending dismissive contemptuous (of his voters) comments as Mitchell's are less true.
Richard Nabavi - what live TV programmes/formats would you like to see Cameron commit himself to in the election campaign? Do you think he's keen on anything or does he just want to hide behind his expensive and vulgar attack ads?
Peter, I was looking at the curve in the article linked by Nate Cohn. Yokel, I am not convinced by Jeb either, but I am prepared to be proved wrong on him. My logic is that if he were going to win, he should have immediately jumped out to a substantial lead over the pack. That has not happened. Christie is in a ton of trouble with NJ's credit rating downgrades under his watch. Paul could never win - a libertarian will always be not much more than a necessary court jester. So that leaves Rubio and Walker (or Kasich or Rauner if either dislodge Walker for the conservative MidWest Governor from a blue/purple state candidate, but neither have the national name recognition as Walker at this time) to challenge Jeb.
Leaving the smearing of LD candidates to Tory activists who don't like canvassing in the rain, should we be surprised by any of this ?
It sounds like a bit of a negotiating ploy from the Party - I didn't think when the various formulae for debates were announced a few weeks ago that everyone or indeed anyone would be happy. It's more interesting how negatively the parties themselves view the debates given how critical they were last time.
I've always thought Cameron would be vulnerable when forced to publicly defend aspects of the Government's record - especially immigration - to a potentially hostile public audience. In all honesty, I think Cameron is weak when dealing with hostility (witness how he repeatedly twists and turns under the onslaughts from his own side) and while anyone can sound and look good in front of a friendly crowd, that can be controlled and organised.
All in all, I doubt Cameron will lose much sleep from not having a debate - he will be sent off to do stage-managed events in front of well-vetted crowds and contact with any hostile public will be kept to an absolute minimum.
Yep , frit Dave will try and avoid any contact with real voters , how different to his attitude when he was a newly elected LofO back in 2006/2007
Modern political campaigning is the tactical equivalent of "Catenaccio". The object is to prevent the opposition scoring. All unscripted encounters run the risk of a gaffe, and should be kept to a minimum. The defining aspect of the 2010 election was bigot-gate.
Elections are generally won by organisation and attrition, very rarely by dash or flair. I think that the big 2 have the advantage if there are no debates.
Austin Mitchell story makes BBC news - huge threat from UKIP.
I was misquoted...
I wouldn't have been surprised if Austin Mitchell had switched to UKIP.
It was a truly artificial story, SeanF.
He was simply making the common and obvious point that anybody in a red rosette should win in G Grimbsby, but he used characteristically colorful language and of course that has been seized upon by those whose job it is to seize upon these things (and repeated here by those who see at their job to beat the Party drum wherever and whenever).
Well said. While the specific example he gave was more offensive than most such scenarios, he wasn't wrong about the point he was making, so why all the fuss?
Given that for the first time in political history the collective support for the three establishment parties could well fall below 50% of those eligible to vote at this next general election I would have thought there has never been a time when such arrogant condescending dismissive contemptuous (of his voters) comments as Mitchell's are less true.
Less true than ever, and yet in most places, it will remain true nevertheless. I hope this is the start of that sort of thing going away for good - Labour losing the level of safety in Scotland is a good sign, as is UKIP challenging in as many places as possible, but for the time being, in most seats, the party that would always win before will win again.
My 4 top fantasy series, of which I have all the hardback editions:
1. Wheel of time. Robert Jordan 2. The Malazan book of the fallen. Stephen Erikson. 3. Crown of Stars. Kate elliot 4. Memory, Sorrow and Thorn. Tad Williams
Two unfinished series that will go into the hat are: 1. Game of Thrones. 2. The Stormlight Archives.
Bit puzzled as to why Huckabee's odds aren't shorter. He's certainly doing OK in the polls, and it looks like he will run.
Peter, I think his odds are long because no-one thinks he can beat Bush, Rubio or Walker.
Hmmmm....I've always thought he was a pretty strong candidate.
He beat Romney the time before last, didn't he?
But since then he has gone on to be a caricature of himself on TV shows. I think his credibility as a serious candidate is much diminished in much the same way as Palin's.
Bit puzzled as to why Huckabee's odds aren't shorter. He's certainly doing OK in the polls, and it looks like he will run.
Peter, I think his odds are long because no-one thinks he can beat Bush, Rubio or Walker.
From a betting point of view he is an interesting case and has the potential to cause swings in the market by his own performance and knocking some others out by sharing the pool of votes. To that end he may well shorten but his potential to cause a bit of short term chaos to others is also worth noting.
@IsabelOakeshott: From what I can tell talking to key players today, the TV election debates are as good as dead. A v great pity. Good story @ShippersUnbound
Just have Ed v Dave and forget the minor parties. Make it 65 seat bar - 10%.
Bit puzzled as to why Huckabee's odds aren't shorter. He's certainly doing OK in the polls, and it looks like he will run.
Peter, I think his odds are long because no-one thinks he can beat Bush, Rubio or Walker.
From a betting point of view he is an interesting case and has the potential to cause swings in the market by his own performance and knocking some others out by sharing the pool of votes. To that end he may well shorten but his potential to cause a bit of short term chaos to others is also worth noting.
Yes, he certainly has the potential to disrupt the early primaries and thereby affect the whole trajectory of the nomination race. But I am not sure he will. Once everyone is announced, I think given the quality of the field of newcomers, has-beens like Huckabee will be dropped very quickly and the campaign donations will concentrate on Bush as the Establishment, Walker as the conservative, and Rubio as the future, although Rubio hasn't really proven himself ready for prime time yet.
@IsabelOakeshott: From what I can tell talking to key players today, the TV election debates are as good as dead. A v great pity. Good story @ShippersUnbound
Just have Ed v Dave and forget the minor parties. Make it 65 seat bar - 10%.
Not necessarily a disaster. There are other possible formats. 2005 was arguably a better campaign than 2010.
Bit puzzled as to why Huckabee's odds aren't shorter. He's certainly doing OK in the polls, and it looks like he will run.
Peter, I think his odds are long because no-one thinks he can beat Bush, Rubio or Walker.
Hmmmm....I've always thought he was a pretty strong candidate.
He beat Romney the time before last, didn't he?
But since then he has gone on to be a caricature of himself on TV shows. I think his credibility as a serious candidate is much diminished in much the same way as Palin's.
I have it on good authority that Sarah Palin will make a bid to be potus candidate. So good is my info, so far, that I have laid £200 on Palin to at least run the primaries.
Austin Mitchell story makes BBC news - huge threat from UKIP.
I was misquoted...
I wouldn't have been surprised if Austin Mitchell had switched to UKIP.
It was a truly artificial story, SeanF.
He was simply making the common and obvious point that anybody in a red rosette should win in G Grimbsby, but he used characteristically colorful language and of course that has been seized upon by those whose job it is to seize upon these things (and repeated here by those who see at their job to beat the Party drum wherever and whenever).
Well said. While the specific example he gave was more offensive than most such scenarios, he wasn't wrong about the point he was making, so why all the fuss?
Given that for the first time in political history the collective support for the three establishment parties could well fall below 50% of those eligible to vote at this next general election I would have thought there has never been a time when such arrogant condescending dismissive contemptuous (of his voters) comments as Mitchell's are less true.
Less true than ever, and yet in most places, it will remain true nevertheless. I hope this is the start of that sort of thing going away for good - Labour losing the level of safety in Scotland is a good sign, as is UKIP challenging in as many places as possible, but for the time being, in most seats, the party that would always win before will win again.
Indeed but not because they'd vote for a particular rosette if it was pinned on a cabbage but moreso because especially in Labour seats so many people are totally disaffected with the establishment parties that they no longer bother voting at all. Turnout in Great Grimsby was a pathetic 53.8% in 2010 with a Labour majority of 714 for an MP who has been in Parliament since 1977. Not only that but the total votes for him in 2010 was 16,000 lower than in 1997 and on numerous occasions prior to that.
Mitchell's comments show a complete detachment from the real situation in his constituency
“Labour, while openly backing the debates, have also privately raised questions about the presence of [Nicola] Sturgeon, who will be handed a national stage as well as debating with Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour leader.”
The usual slimy, deceitful approach that so many Scots have come to know and despise from the British Labour Party in Scotland.
Comments
But if you look at the http://ltrr.arizona.edu/ you can see how many samples they have by year. And, I'm not claiming they're perfect or they allow you to impute temperatures with any great precision (and we know in any given year there will be many, many other factors), but the fact remains that there are literally hundreds of samples for each year going back millenia.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/08/16/oh-mann-paper-demonstrates-that-tree-ring-proxy-temperature-data-is-seriously-compromised/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/06/manns-tree-ring-proxy-train-wreck/
''Steve McIntyre helpfully providing reconstructions based on tree rings which demonstrate how, without the benefit of Mike’s scientifically dubious “nature trick”, the hockey stick simply disappears – tree rings demonstrably don’t correlate with temperature.''
McIntyre is a statistician - a profession which the IPCC would prefer to give the black spot to.
Certainly, playing the Ed Miliband card resonates with what I am hearing on the doorstep.
But other views are available....
So, I would be the first to admit they are far from perfect. There is no doubt, as well, that people like Mann grossly manipulated the data, and - to get the answers they wanted - excluded tree data they didn't like.
My point, simply, is that there is a global resource of tree data, with over 2 million samples, giving us data from across the world.
So, I would have thought - even if it hasn't been done properly yet - that we could achieve something with a reasonable degree of confidence in the future,
In my experience, these days when a party goes negative about the other side, the most common reaction among voters is something along the lines of "well they obviously don't have anything positive to say about themselves if they're just resorting to attacking the other guy". Though in fairness, this does cut both ways: the MANY people who think the Tories are nasty and out-of-touch and will make too harsh cuts, are not going to be too impressed if Labour's whole message boils down to saying that without any alternative of what Labour would do differently being stated. Ordinary Joe Public might just whinge in a generic way about a particular politician or party, but they expect the politicians themselves to do something more than that.
Caesar, however, managed to get murdered by his own allies less than a year after winning.
The lesson is clear - a Hannibalic defeat leads to greater glory and longer life than a Caesarian victory.
Several members of Syriza’s extreme left faction criticised the agreement as a climbdown that had not been presented for approval by party structures such as the Central Committee.
Manolis Glezos, a 94-year-old member of the European Parliament and Syriza’s most senior active politician, lashed out at the government for not fulfilling its pre-election promise to “annul the bailout, annul the troika (of bailout monitors from the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank) and annul all the austerity legislation.”
He said Greek officials were “renaming fish as meat” by using different terms to reference the unpopular loan programme “without changing the actual situation.”
You may be confusing this with 40,000 year old sediments laid down in a lake in Japan which have been studied by the University of Arizona. I do not think as yet it makes any claims about climate.
Uploaded to a DATING app??
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-31575460
How did we manage all those years without debates? Its not as if politicians do not stand up in Parliament every day and debate with each other under the shadow of TV cameras.
They don't have to find 40,000 year old trees. (Or even 11,000 year old ones.)
They only have to find planks of wood (often fossilised), and to match parts of those planks with other things we do know about. And every bit of wood we get gives us a better picture. See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendrochronology
I was misquoted...
The University of Arizona has more than 2 million samples from all over the world.
We should - hopefully - be able to get better data in the future than we have in the past.
Why on earth are the lenders bothering to negotiate with this rabble?
Sounds plausible.
This article is rather good on the mindset of those trying to - and usually failing to - deal with Islamists.
http://hurryupharry.org/2015/02/21/96015/
The vox pop on that report really showed the difference between voters and the committed on here.
MP you say? election you say??
Many of us that had piled high our bets on Hilary simply had to run for cover. On balance, I felt the allegations would be unlikely to derail her, but simply couldn't take the chance. I still think the nomination is hers for the asking, but if the Bill problem gets too bad she may not ask.
If she doesn't run, it becomes a much more interesting betting heat. Can't believe the Dems are crazy enough to go for Warren, and Biden would lose to any half-decent Republican candidate. Maybe there is somebody else out there who can win for them, but my impression is Hilary's their only chance.
And I certainly don't regard her as any more than a 4/5 chance if she does run.
Mr. F, not sure if you saw it, but I contributed to a horror anthology (proceeds going to charity) which came out a week or so ago. [Hadn't planned on plugging but it is relevant to the conversation]:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Prey-Seven-Tales-Beastly-Terror/dp/1507626800/
Unlike my steampunk short story [not released], I found horror much harder to get into. Happy with the end result, mind.
“It’s not my comment. I don’t remember it. It’s irrelevant. It’s of no importance. It doesn’t represent my point of view.”
Read more: http://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/Grimsby-MP-Austin-Mitchell-claims-t-remember/story-26065175-detail/story.html#ixzz3SUvJb5xF
Follow us: @GrimsbyTel on Twitter | grimsbytel on Facebook
That reads like:
" I didn't say it; I don't remember saying it; it's not important that I said it; I didn't mean to say it".
How to change one's position on something 4 times in one breath.
Priceless!
IIRC Guy Gavriel Kay exploits that particularly well, with ostensibly fantasy settings and made up places which are, however, not just reminiscent of real world cultures and histories, but essentially fantasy retellings of El Cid era Spain or something.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4vE11UPD_I
The Yarmal data set on which Michael Mann's hockey stick was thin to useless.
UoA may well have a better dataset (presumably based on the redwood) but Mann didn't use that for his theory
He was simply making the common and obvious point that anybody in a red rosette should win in G Grimbsby, but he used characteristically colorful language and of course that has been seized upon by those whose job it is to seize upon these things (and repeated here by those who see at their job to beat the Party drum wherever and whenever).
It will probably help UKIP, a little bit. You and I should be pleased, for different reasons.
When I last checked the trilogy was available as a single purchase from Amazon. If I remember, I might buy the third part from Abebooks at some point.
All I need for these books are some more shelves to store them, more time to read them, and more money to buy them
Just a guess.
Those 3 missing Jihadist girls might just have new jobs waiting for them.
For a start the author, the FT political correspondent, Kiran Stacey, seems to think that the Liberal Democrats started out in 1983, which does not give one much confidence in his expertise.
Then the sources that he quotes are a "Liberal Democrat official", "a senior MP" and "a party strategist", which is pretty vague. Two of those three terms could have applied to me, at one time! I am not his source, of course.
Then Mr Stacey claims that the party has "just a few weeks to organise its ground level campaign teams." Oh indeed? For all that he is a "political correspondent", Mr Stacey seems to have little idea about how political parties operate.
And then there is his assertion that "the party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold." I wonder what the mechanism might be for doing that. It might be helpful if Mr Stacey - with his wonderful political insight - could have explained that to his readers.
I think there must be at least fifty people who post here on PB who could have cobbled together a more convincing story than the one that Mr Stacey has contrived.
The trouble is that if we're honest, Britain's medium-term outlook is quite difficult - it's not at all clear that we are really competitive. So all the vaguely responsible parties are being pretty cautious about what they offer, and people are correspondingly unenthused.
freshly baked (@_freshlybaked)
22/02/2015 18:21
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Surely the growth of a tree is promoted and hindered by many effects, not just temperature. For instance a localised particularly wet or dry season, or reduced sunlight due to atmospheric pollution (e.g. volcanoes).
Is the width of tree wings really a good analogue for temperature, especially at the degrees of precision being claimed?
I daresay the climate boffins have a good answer for this, but it;'s hard for me to see how localised variations cannot be discounted without massive samples.
Leaving the smearing of LD candidates to Tory activists who don't like canvassing in the rain, should we be surprised by any of this ?
It sounds like a bit of a negotiating ploy from the Party - I didn't think when the various formulae for debates were announced a few weeks ago that everyone or indeed anyone would be happy. It's more interesting how negatively the parties themselves view the debates given how critical they were last time.
I've always thought Cameron would be vulnerable when forced to publicly defend aspects of the Government's record - especially immigration - to a potentially hostile public audience. In all honesty, I think Cameron is weak when dealing with hostility (witness how he repeatedly twists and turns under the onslaughts from his own side) and while anyone can sound and look good in front of a friendly crowd, that can be controlled and organised.
All in all, I doubt Cameron will lose much sleep from not having a debate - he will be sent off to do stage-managed events in front of well-vetted crowds and contact with any hostile public will be kept to an absolute minimum.
Corum is probably the best of his series.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Corum-Knight-Swords-Eternal-Champion/dp/1857983149/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1424629507&sr=1-1&keywords=corum+tale+of+the+eternal+champion
I personally liked Hawkmoon the best
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Hawkmoon-Eternal-Champion-Michael-Moorcock/dp/1857984374/ref=sr_1_6?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1424629302&sr=1-6&keywords=moorcock+hawkmoon
Von Bek was the most useful in terms of terms of actually explaining what is going on
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Von-Bek-Warhound-Pleasure-Sagittarius/dp/1857984366/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1424629479&sr=1-2&keywords=von+bek+moorcock
But you probably need to have taken drugs to understand Jerry Cornelus (or Dancers at the End of Time, which actually explains what is going on)
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Dancers-Time-Tale-Eternal-Champion/dp/1857980360/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1424629576&sr=1-1&keywords=dancer+at+the+end+of+time+tale+of+the+eternal+champion
So his prospects go up in smoke!
Your confirmation of the story is noted, senior LibDem official strategist.... ;-)
There is a possibility that if she is vulnerable that someone will emerge outside the n ext couple of competitors in the betting.
The GOP market, as it always seems, is far more interesting, mainly due to the cartoon level misunderstandings we in this part of the world often have about the Republicans. I am still not convinced, despite trying to logic it out on a number of occasions, by Jeb Bush as its stands, nor by Rubio or Paul as it stands. Which leaves us your fella Walker, my favorite fat lad Christie and the disruptive force of 1 x Mike Huckabee. I don't think Huckabee will win but if he does run and the pockets are deep he might cause enough problems for others.
Bit puzzled as to why Huckabee's odds aren't shorter. He's certainly doing OK in the polls, and it looks like he will run.
On the lighter, more tropey side of things, I've enjoyed in recent times Trudi Canavan's Black Magician Trilogy. It was one of the rare occasions - though less so as time goes on - to follow a female protagonist in a fantasy series.
What is your nom de plume, Morris?
http://www.silentnight.co.uk/about-us/media-room/press-releases/prime-minister-david-cameron-visits-silentnight/?hideCookieBanner=true
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/david-cameron-quizzed-runcorn-call-8025089
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8943365/David-Cameron-quizzed-over-Europe-during-PM-Direct.html
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-03-24/cameron-talks-pensions-at-pm-direct-event/
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-defends-50000-cost-of-pm-direct-sessions-8594949.html
There was even one in your backyard a few days ago:
http://uk.thetruth24.com/article/95308/cameron-to-speak-at-a-pm-direct-event-in-sussex-politics-live-blog
He beat Romney the time before last, didn't he?
Yokel, I am not convinced by Jeb either, but I am prepared to be proved wrong on him. My logic is that if he were going to win, he should have immediately jumped out to a substantial lead over the pack. That has not happened. Christie is in a ton of trouble with NJ's credit rating downgrades under his watch. Paul could never win - a libertarian will always be not much more than a necessary court jester. So that leaves Rubio and Walker (or Kasich or Rauner if either dislodge Walker for the conservative MidWest Governor from a blue/purple state candidate, but neither have the national name recognition as Walker at this time) to challenge Jeb.
Elections are generally won by organisation and attrition, very rarely by dash or flair. I think that the big 2 have the advantage if there are no debates.
1. Wheel of time. Robert Jordan
2. The Malazan book of the fallen. Stephen Erikson.
3. Crown of Stars. Kate elliot
4. Memory, Sorrow and Thorn. Tad Williams
Two unfinished series that will go into the hat are:
1. Game of Thrones.
2. The Stormlight Archives.
Just have Ed v Dave and forget the minor parties. Make it 65 seat bar - 10%.
Mitchell's comments show a complete detachment from the real situation in his constituency
The usual slimy, deceitful approach that so many Scots have come to know and despise from the British Labour Party in Scotland.