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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lib Dem sources say the debates unlikely to happen

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited February 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lib Dem sources say the debates unlikely to happen

Today reports emerged that Liberal Democrat sources say the televised leaders’ debates are unlikely to happen. The Lib Dems aren’t happy because Nick Clegg is only in two of the three debates, and is relegated to the likes of Plaid Cymru, who received one-sixtieth as many votes in 2010 as the Lib Dems did.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Or Clegg will be empty-chaired.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580
    edited February 2015
    A free for all at least has the potential to benefit Cameron against Miliband, and he needs something like that. The LDs not wanting to be relegated further is understandable, but I don't really see the harm either way for them in having them or not, so why whinge about it?

    Not having them in itself is not likely to upset too many people. but those who don't want them, whatever the other reasons for not liking the idea of the debates, are clearly only worried because they think they will not benefit as much (given their parties agreed to them last time or wanted to be included last time), so there's nothing to be gained from trying to derail them completely as those that do care will see it for the craven political calculation it is.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    FPT. Re the UKIP Councillor who I mentioned earlier who made racist comments and who foolishly defended herself by saying 'I just said I don't like the way Negroes look which isn't racist it's just a question of aesthetics or something similar...........

    Well I've just had lunch with some friends and one of the people at the lunch said "I'm going to see the heart man Simon Levy next week who's I've been told is the best in the business with the emphasis on business"

    I found it amusing but in the new world of hyper sensitivity perhaps I shouldn't have smiled
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,843

    it's a good working theory

    Based on what?
    Based on logic. Can you explain previous periods of warming? Obviously not man-made CO2.

    Even on the site 'Skeptical Science' -a site whose entire purpose seems to be trying to 'debunk' alternative theories wherever they emerge, does not even manage to dispute the time lag, it just fudges the issue and tries to say the increased CO2 after warming further accelerated the warming -for which it gets something of a hosing from experts in the comments:
    http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    You are now a teeny, weeny party, LibDems. Get used to it....
  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    Huzzah! The debates were rubbish.

    FPT: Miss Plato, I'm aware of the existence of Agent Carter but haven't seen it. I'm really quite surprised Channel 4 haven't picked it up, given they have Supermodels of SHIELD and it's an obvious fit.

    It does sound good, from your description. Hopefully it won't be too long until Gotham returns.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    The broadcasters probably thought by including everyone, they'd make certain that the debates would go ahead as no one could complain, but as mentioned if Labour are secretly not that keen on the debates any more, it'll be easy for the debates to be killed off with both the main parties not wanting it. The broadcasters should have stuck with their original plan and threatened to empty chair.
  • LibDems get their highest score in ELBOW since 12th October!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/569480545782145026
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2015

    LibDems get their highest score in ELBOW since 12th October!

    They could even storm up to 9% by the election at this rate!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580

    You are now a teeny, weeny party, LibDems. Get used to it....

    While it is pretty certain they will be severely cut back, and in terms of vote share they are on par at best with some of the others, their insistence that, as things stand, they are a party of government etc etc, is not entirely unreasonable. Their moment of true national collapse is pretty inevitable but has not actually occurred yet, so they can argue it is theoretical for the moment.

    BUT there is no way for them to derail things without it being seen, correctly, as though they are only concerned because they feel they will be disadvantaged, which is petty and pathetic.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    interestingly, we do seem to be at a point where Cameron now won't get all the blame if the debates don't happen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580
    FPT:
    Plato said:

    OT Has anyone seen Forever? It looks rather interesting.

    A 200-year-old man works in the New York City Morgue trying to find a key to unlock the curse of his immortality.


    That sounds just like a show from a few years ago called New Amsterdam, starring a pre Game of Thrones Nikolaj Costa-Waldau (Jaime Lannister), only in that one he was a detective, not a morgue worker.

    I liked the concept well enough, only saw the pilot, so I'll probably give this new one a shot
  • it's a good working theory

    Based on what?
    Based on logic. Can you explain previous periods of warming? Obviously not man-made CO2.

    Even on the site 'Skeptical Science' -a site whose entire purpose seems to be trying to 'debunk' alternative theories wherever they emerge, does not even manage to dispute the time lag, it just fudges the issue and tries to say the increased CO2 after warming further accelerated the warming -for which it gets something of a hosing from experts in the comments:
    http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
    Climate science is complicated but the scientific consensus is that currently it is being driven by man, predominately via CO2. I trust the scientific method to arrive at a closer and closer approximation to the truth.
    Have your own opinion if you like. Everybody is entitled to their own opinion (no matter how stupid it may be).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,843
    kle4 said:

    You are now a teeny, weeny party, LibDems. Get used to it....

    While it is pretty certain they will be severely cut back, and in terms of vote share they are on par at best with some of the others, their insistence that, as things stand, they are a party of government etc etc, is not entirely unreasonable. Their moment of true national collapse is pretty inevitable but has not actually occurred yet, so they can argue it is theoretical for the moment.

    BUT there is no way for them to derail things without it being seen, correctly, as though they are only concerned because they feel they will be disadvantaged, which is petty and pathetic.
    Exactly. Also would anyone think a no show by the Lib Dems would mean the debates couldn't happen? Just empty chair them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    kle4 said:

    You are now a teeny, weeny party, LibDems. Get used to it....

    While it is pretty certain they will be severely cut back, and in terms of vote share they are on par at best with some of the others, their insistence that, as things stand, they are a party of government etc etc, is not entirely unreasonable. Their moment of true national collapse is pretty inevitable but has not actually occurred yet, so they can argue it is theoretical for the moment.

    BUT there is no way for them to derail things without it being seen, correctly, as though they are only concerned because they feel they will be disadvantaged, which is petty and pathetic.
    Probably the very worst thing for the LibDems would be for everyone to be reminded of the existence of Nick Clegg after all the LibDem candidates have airbrushed him from history (and their literature). Was it really only five years ago that he stood on that stage and embodied the great hope of so many millions that he would be a refreshing new face in national politics? If 2010 was the Cleggasm, 2015 promised to be the LibDem's Erectile Dysfunction...
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I've been watching the Extras bits of the Fringe DVDs and they're great - I'm marathoning my Dexter boxset now and will watch them next.

    Given we're into the Easter hellatus for the next month or so - I'm using this time to rewatch old favourites and trying to make my MX box talk to the ABC/CBS networks. Mine is a bit temperamental.

    It's how to watch progs that aren't broadcast here - but totally legal to stream as it doesn't violate the peer-to-peer/download criteria.

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Huzzah! The debates were rubbish.

    FPT: Miss Plato, I'm aware of the existence of Agent Carter but haven't seen it. I'm really quite surprised Channel 4 haven't picked it up, given they have Supermodels of SHIELD and it's an obvious fit.

    It does sound good, from your description. Hopefully it won't be too long until Gotham returns.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,843

    it's a good working theory

    Based on what?
    Based on logic. Can you explain previous periods of warming? Obviously not man-made CO2.

    Even on the site 'Skeptical Science' -a site whose entire purpose seems to be trying to 'debunk' alternative theories wherever they emerge, does not even manage to dispute the time lag, it just fudges the issue and tries to say the increased CO2 after warming further accelerated the warming -for which it gets something of a hosing from experts in the comments:
    http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
    Climate science is complicated but the scientific consensus is that currently it is being driven by man, predominately via CO2. I trust the scientific method to arrive at a closer and closer approximation to the truth.
    Have your own opinion if you like. Everybody is entitled to their own opinion (no matter how stupid it may be).
    For science to work in getting ever closer to the truth, it has to be constantly questioned and refined. Climate science does not work like that, it is a dogmatic religion in which science is called upon to support the prevailing theory, not challenge it. It is in fact more a form of luddism than science.

    Hence we get you, unable to fault the logic of what I'm saying, resorting to 'scientists know better than you', and half-witted insults.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    You are now a teeny, weeny party, LibDems. Get used to it....

    Every fool knows that it is Cameron who has been frit of the debates ever since his poor performance in the 2010 debates .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,629
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:



    Luckily we have only started breathing, eating and burning stuff recently or we would have all gone to hell in a handcart centuries ago.

    Wait. I thought UKIP was of the view that we had gone to hell in a handcart.
    Hi Robert, we had a bet on the lib Dems doing badly at the GE and I can't remember what it was.... Do you?

    It was £20@11/2 ish me being the backer, using the money you had with me on ukip at the Wythenshawe by election. Might have been lib Dems to poll less than 8%?
    I can't remember. But I'll check my emails
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited February 2015
    FPT:

    2014 is the hottest year on record - the facts speak for themselves. Anyway the KEY thing is the trend and that is UP not down. Yes, UP!!!!

    http://www.wmo.int/media/?q=content/warming-trend-continues-2014

    Yes, the right-wing loons that inhabit this blog will continue to say - "nah, this is all made up" and "conspiracy!".

    I'd rather believe the WMO than like nut-jobs like Christopher Booker and his ilk...

    And Mr Richard Tyndall - continue to discredit me and throw mud - that's fine.
  • murali_s said:

    FPT:

    2014 is the hottest year on record - the facts speak for themselves...


    You say it like it was a bad thing. :)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2015
    I still say the Lib Dems' position at this election is going to be even worse than being hated: instead, they're just going to be completely irrelevant. Their whole pitch of moderating the "excesses" of Tories and Labour might seem shrewd on one level, but in such a febrile, emotional election with a host of small parties (UKIP, Greens, the SNP) offering much more newsworthy and exciting pitches, the Lib Dems are going to get completely squeezed out of the media coverage. They really are going to be solely relying on incumbent MPs' good reputations (which, on the topic, makes Tory GAIN HAZEL GROVE an underrated bet imo with the Lib Dem incumbent stepping down).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,843
    murali_s said:

    FPT:

    2014 is the hottest year on record - the facts speak for themselves...

    http://www.wmo.int/media/?q=content/warming-trend-continues-2014

    Yes, the right-wing loons that inhabit this blog will continue to say - "nah, this is all made up" and "conspiracy!".

    I'd rather believe the WMO than like nut-jobs like Christopher Booker and his ilk...

    And Mr Richard Tyndall - continue to discredit me and throw mud - that's fine.

    It's nice of you to support climate change scepticism in this rather bizarre way of trying to make climate change alarmism look as infantile and ridiculous as possible, but please stop, there's enough deception going around the internet already. Just argue what you really believe.
  • Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.

    Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.

    Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited February 2015
    @carnyx @malcolmg

    Thanks for the advice.

    It appears the Scottish Parliament now requires people with dual EU nationality living in England to have been resident in the said country for a three month period.

    Several years to go till the day. Maybe a sabbatical and a three month trip to R o I are something to plan for the future....assuming the rules haven't changed again.....

    I'm surprised that no one has yet gone to the ECHR claiming the policy is racist......
  • kle4 said:

    You are now a teeny, weeny party, LibDems. Get used to it....

    While it is pretty certain they will be severely cut back, and in terms of vote share they are on par at best with some of the others, their insistence that, as things stand, they are a party of government etc etc, is not entirely unreasonable. Their moment of true national collapse is pretty inevitable but has not actually occurred yet, so they can argue it is theoretical for the moment.

    BUT there is no way for them to derail things without it being seen, correctly, as though they are only concerned because they feel they will be disadvantaged, which is petty and pathetic.
    Exactly. Also would anyone think a no show by the Lib Dems would mean the debates couldn't happen? Just empty chair them.
    Except that there are existing guidelines which the broadcasters seem to be ignoring.

    So the Lib Dems could go to court about the arrangements if they choose.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    kle4 said:

    You are now a teeny, weeny party, LibDems. Get used to it....

    While it is pretty certain they will be severely cut back, and in terms of vote share they are on par at best with some of the others, their insistence that, as things stand, they are a party of government etc etc, is not entirely unreasonable. Their moment of true national collapse is pretty inevitable but has not actually occurred yet, so they can argue it is theoretical for the moment.

    BUT there is no way for them to derail things without it being seen, correctly, as though they are only concerned because they feel they will be disadvantaged, which is petty and pathetic.
    Probably the very worst thing for the LibDems would be for everyone to be reminded of the existence of Nick Clegg after all the LibDem candidates have airbrushed him from history (and their literature). Was it really only five years ago that he stood on that stage and embodied the great hope of so many millions that he would be a refreshing new face in national politics? If 2010 was the Cleggasm, 2015 promised to be the LibDem's Erectile Dysfunction...
    I don't think so. Clegg has everything to gain and little to lose.

    I think that neither of Labour or Tories want the debates to happen, and I don't blame them.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    murali_s said:

    FPT:

    2014 is the hottest year on record - the facts speak for themselves. Anyway the KEY thing is the trend and that is UP not down. Yes, UP!!!!

    http://www.wmo.int/media/?q=content/warming-trend-continues-2014

    Yes, the right-wing loons that inhabit this blog will continue to say - "nah, this is all made up" and "conspiracy!".

    I'd rather believe the WMO than like nut-jobs like Christopher Booker and his ilk...

    And Mr Richard Tyndall - continue to discredit me and throw mud - that's fine.

    But you see that is exactly the problem. You are not equipped to examine intellectual positions on their merits so you assess them on the personal qualities of their supposed proponents.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited February 2015
    Try the new trailer here, I feel lax if I'm not on top of the latest shows from the US - I watch everything available from Netflix, Amazon Prime, MXed/live.

    It makes things a bit tricky re spoilers when I'm a long way ahead compared to the UK networks. I wish Syfy channel streamed their stuff easily - it's too much like hard work to pay them to do so without buying the whole Sky thingy. abc.go.com/shows/forever
    kle4 said:

    FPT:
    Plato said:

    OT Has anyone seen Forever? It looks rather interesting.

    A 200-year-old man works in the New York City Morgue trying to find a key to unlock the curse of his immortality.


    That sounds just like a show from a few years ago called New Amsterdam, starring a pre Game of Thrones Nikolaj Costa-Waldau (Jaime Lannister), only in that one he was a detective, not a morgue worker.

    I liked the concept well enough, only saw the pilot, so I'll probably give this new one a shot

  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    @carnyx @malcolmg

    It appears the Scottish Parliament now requires people with dual EU nationality living in England to have been resident in the said country for a three month period.

    Several years to go till the day. Maybe a sabbatical and a three month trip to R o I are something to plan for the future....assuming the rules haven't changed again.....

    I'm surprised that no one has yet gone to the ECHR claiming the policy is racist......

    Despite reading your first paragraph several times it makes completely no sense whatsoever . The Scottish Parliament has no legal standing to rule on anyone who lives in England
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited February 2015



    In science, no-one is ever 100% certain of anything, not even the general theory of relativity. But it's highly likely that man-made activity is affecting the climate, given that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

    My local metorological station has warmed by about 1.2 degrees K since the 1960s. I downloaded the data from the Met.Office website and plotted a trend line on an Excel spreadsheet to check it for myself.

    If politicians divide into those that believe in the scientific method and those that don't, I'll vote for the first group, thanks very much.

    That information on its own is meaningless. Two vital things need to be known.

    1) Are the temperatures on it "weighted" (ie adjusted) before released?

    2) Where the station is. This is needed so that the change in the local environment can be assessed?

    Heathrow weather station will show a large change in average temps since the 1960s, however that has nothing to do with the climate. The whole reason wattsupwiththat.com started was due to a trained meterologist noticing that temperature stations in the USA were giving artificially high readings due to development round them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,629

    Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.

    Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.

    Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
  • Danny565 said:

    I still say the Lib Dems' position at this election is going to be even worse than being hated: instead, they're just going to be completely irrelevant. Their whole pitch of moderating the "excesses" of Tories and Labour might seem shrewd on one level, but in such a febrile, emotional election with a host of small parties (UKIP, Greens, the SNP) offering much more newsworthy and exciting pitches, the Lib Dems are going to get completely squeezed out of the media coverage. They really are going to be solely relying on incumbent MPs' good reputations (which, on the topic, makes Tory GAIN HAZEL GROVE an underrated bet imo with the Lib Dem incumbent stepping down).

    Except that OfCom have made them one of the main parties and therefore they will gain major TV coverage.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.

    Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.

    Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
    Antarctic ice cores go back a further ten times that, I think.
  • interestingly, we do seem to be at a point where Cameron now won't get all the blame if the debates don't happen.

    Yes, this has been well handled by the Blue team.

    The debates will clearly not happen. This avoids the danger of the worst outcome for DC, i.e., other Parties gain from the publicity. He may now even avoid the lesser danger of appearing afraid of them, since other Parties and possibly the broadcasters themselves look like taking at least some of the flak for them not happening.

    Whatever your view of the debates, you have to admit it's been pretty nifty footwork.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    edited February 2015
    The IPCC's current position is this:

    It is very likely that there has been an overall decrease in the number of cold days and nights, and an overall increase in the number of warm days and nights, at the global scale, that is, for most land areas with sufficient data. It is likely that these changes have also occurred at the continental scale in North America, Europe, and Australia.

    There is medium confidence in a warming trend in daily temperature extremes in much of Asia. Confidence in observed trends in daily temperature extremes in Africa and South America generally varies from low to medium depending on the region. In many (but not all) regions, there is medium confidence that the length or number of warm spells or heat waves has increased.

    There have been statistically significant trends in the number of heavy precipitation events in some regions. It is likely that more of these regions have experienced increases than decreases, although there are strong regional and subregional variations in these trends.

    There is low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e., intensity, frequency, duration) [...] There is low confidence in observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena such as tornadoes and hail.

    There is medium confidence that some regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer droughts, in particular in southern Europe and West Africa, but in some regions droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter, for example, in central North America and northwestern Australia.

    There is limited to medium evidence available to assess climate-driven observed changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods at regional scales because the available instrumental records of floods at gauge stations are limited in space and time, and because of confounding effects of changes in land use and engineering. Furthermore, there is low agreement in this evidence, and thus overall low confidence at the global scale regarding even the sign of these changes.
    Very little of which is in its nature catastrophic. Hence the importance of the new IPCC report on adaptibility, which was an awful oversight in earlier reports.

    http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREX-SPMbrochure_FINAL.pdf
  • Mr. 1000, and do those tree cores show 2014 to be the hottest year ever?

    I'd be surprised, if so. Natural variation has accounted for temperatures hotter than those currently experienced, and colder than those currently experienced. There is no compelling evidence. The IPCC got its predictions drastically wrong in its 4th report, then upgraded its confidence in its own forecasts for the 5th report.
  • Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I've judged it without even wasting five seconds on it. I'm told it's dark lord nonsense (aka fantasy).

  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Ohh, you're on dangerous territory there - the Yamal handful of tree ring data is laughably small. The *fingers of one hand* would be more comprehensive as an evidence set. Whatever one thinks of Mr Booker - the data set remains vanishingly small to support the AGW agenda.

    telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6738111/Climategate-reveals-the-most-influential-tree-in-the-world.html
    rcs1000 said:

    Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.

    Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.

    Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    edited February 2015
    Danny565 said:

    LibDems get their highest score in ELBOW since 12th October!

    They could even storm up to 9% by the election at this rate!
    Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government! :)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Sue ‏@English_Woman 31m31 minutes ago
    Baroness Warsi Placed Islamist Radicals at Heart of Whitehall - Breitbart http://bit.ly/1D7p5vH

    I bet that Cammo is red faced, and if he isn't, then he knew what she was up to.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Does seem daft that in 2010 the LDs got equal airtime with the other two, but now they're in government they get less?
  • Artist said:

    The broadcasters probably thought by including everyone, they'd make certain that the debates would go ahead as no one could complain, but as mentioned if Labour are secretly not that keen on the debates any more, it'll be easy for the debates to be killed off with both the main parties not wanting it. The broadcasters should have stuck with their original plan and threatened to empty chair.

    Yes, if the Broadcasters really wanted these to take place they've been outsmarted.

    Once they started making concessions, they were on a slippery slope. I see no way back for them now.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580

    Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I've judged it without even wasting five seconds on it. I'm told it's dark lord nonsense (aka fantasy).

    You don't believe it is possible for something to be good even if it is of a genre of which you dislike?
  • Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.

    Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.

    Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    Mr Dancer. There was a time when there was no oxygen in the atmosphere. Then the first photosynthetic bacteria evolved which put oxygen into the atmosphere.
  • A possible alternative to the debates would be a televised version of the call-ins Clegg has been doing with LBC, to be offered to all the Party leaders on the debates list. That would actually be an improvement on the Debates anyway.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    @carnyx @malcolmg

    It appears the Scottish Parliament now requires people with dual EU nationality living in England to have been resident in the said country for a three month period.

    Several years to go till the day. Maybe a sabbatical and a three month trip to R o I are something to plan for the future....assuming the rules haven't changed again.....

    I'm surprised that no one has yet gone to the ECHR claiming the policy is racist......

    Despite reading your first paragraph several times it makes completely no sense whatsoever . The Scottish Parliament has no legal standing to rule on anyone who lives in England
    They do not but Parliament does and decides how the matter is dealt with. Only responsibility for Scottish resident students was devolved to Scotland. So their fees (and as a consequence of EU law other EU citizens) are paid for by the Scottish Government.

    Parliament reserves responsibility for funding English students at Scottish Universities (and has devolved Welsh and NI responsibilities to their respective Assemblies).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580
    RodCrosby said:

    Does seem daft that in 2010 the LDs got equal airtime with the other two, but now they're in government they get less?

    The field is more crowded, making a readjustment which negatively impacts them more reasonable, the same way a party could increase its vote share but still go backwards in terms of position.
  • I find the CO2 graph here offers food for thought:
    www.climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
    That rather regular "natural" fluctuation up to recent times and then a vertical climb. For me, it rather demolishes the idea that the current changes are just more of the same variation.
    But no doubt somebody here can tell me it's meaningless.
  • Mr. Money, if fantasy's not your cup of tea, fair enough, though I would point out there's more to fantasy than just Tolkien's approach.

    Grimdark is very popular, there's some nice comedy (Terry Pratchett, for example, is practically a subgenre by himself), fairytales also seem to be back in fashion. Of course, it's entirely possible and legitimate to like none of that, but fantasy = Tolkien is as mistaken as poetry = rhyming.
  • it's a good working theory

    Based on what?
    Based on logic. Can you explain previous periods of warming? Obviously not man-made CO2.

    Even on the site 'Skeptical Science' -a site whose entire purpose seems to be trying to 'debunk' alternative theories wherever they emerge, does not even manage to dispute the time lag, it just fudges the issue and tries to say the increased CO2 after warming further accelerated the warming -for which it gets something of a hosing from experts in the comments:
    http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm
    Climate science is complicated but the scientific consensus is that currently it is being driven by man, predominately via CO2.
    Farting? Breathing? There are many more people alive than 100 years ago.

  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited February 2015

    @carnyx @malcolmg

    It appears the Scottish Parliament now requires people with dual EU nationality living in England to have been resident in the said country for a three month period.

    Several years to go till the day. Maybe a sabbatical and a three month trip to R o I are something to plan for the future....assuming the rules haven't changed again.....

    I'm surprised that no one has yet gone to the ECHR claiming the policy is racist......

    Despite reading your first paragraph several times it makes completely no sense whatsoever . The Scottish Parliament has no legal standing to rule on anyone who lives in England
    It does make sense if said person with dual nationality (with another EU state) living in England wishes to attend a University in Scotland in their capacity as a national of that other EU state (and therefore not pay fees), which is what this debate is about.
  • kle4 said:

    Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I've judged it without even wasting five seconds on it. I'm told it's dark lord nonsense (aka fantasy).

    You don't believe it is possible for something to be good even if it is of a genre of which you dislike?
    Country & Western music is the stiffest test of that theory.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    rcs1000 said:

    Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.

    Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.

    Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
    Actually the tree rings are a large part of the data cherry-picking controversy.

    The claims are based on the Yamal tree samples which came from only 12 specimens of 252 in the original data set. A larger data set of 34 trees from the same vicinity that weren’t used showed no dramatic recent warming, but warmer temperatures in the Middle Ages.
  • kle4 said:


    You don't believe it is possible for something to be good even if it is of a genre of which you dislike?

    I don't believe it's remotely plausible that I would like it given it comes from my least favourite genre (I think I'd put fantasy below chick flicks and the ridiculous martial arts crap where people fly). Since this is a genre my wife is relatively keen on and a counterexample has yet to crop up, it seems wise to apply prejudice rather than wasting precious seconds when I could be doing something really useful like typing this!

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    kle4 said:

    Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I've judged it without even wasting five seconds on it. I'm told it's dark lord nonsense (aka fantasy).

    You don't believe it is possible for something to be good even if it is of a genre of which you dislike?
    Country & Western music is the stiffest test of that theory.
    And Gram Parsons shows that it is possible.

  • Dimitry said:

    I find the CO2 graph here offers food for thought:
    www.climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
    That rather regular "natural" fluctuation up to recent times and then a vertical climb. For me, it rather demolishes the idea that the current changes are just more of the same variation.
    But no doubt somebody here can tell me it's meaningless.

    No one isdisputing the rise in C02 emissions since the industrial revolution, the dispute is over whether it makes any material difference to the climate, and if it does, whether negatively so.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    kle4 said:

    You are now a teeny, weeny party, LibDems. Get used to it....

    While it is pretty certain they will be severely cut back, and in terms of vote share they are on par at best with some of the others, their insistence that, as things stand, they are a party of government etc etc, is not entirely unreasonable. Their moment of true national collapse is pretty inevitable but has not actually occurred yet, so they can argue it is theoretical for the moment.

    BUT there is no way for them to derail things without it being seen, correctly, as though they are only concerned because they feel they will be disadvantaged, which is petty and pathetic.
    Probably the very worst thing for the LibDems would be for everyone to be reminded of the existence of Nick Clegg after all the LibDem candidates have airbrushed him from history (and their literature). Was it really only five years ago that he stood on that stage and embodied the great hope of so many millions that he would be a refreshing new face in national politics? If 2010 was the Cleggasm, 2015 promised to be the LibDem's Erectile Dysfunction...
    Clegg has everything to gain and little to lose.
    That's rather dismissive of him of their 57 MP's!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    @carnyx @malcolmg

    It appears the Scottish Parliament now requires people with dual EU nationality living in England to have been resident in the said country for a three month period.

    Several years to go till the day. Maybe a sabbatical and a three month trip to R o I are something to plan for the future....assuming the rules haven't changed again.....

    I'm surprised that no one has yet gone to the ECHR claiming the policy is racist......

    Despite reading your first paragraph several times it makes completely no sense whatsoever . The Scottish Parliament has no legal standing to rule on anyone who lives in England
    It does make sense if said person with dual nationality (with another EU state) living in England wishes to attend a University in Scotland in their capacity as a national of that other EU state (and therefore not pay fees), which is what this debate is about.
    They would be asked why the qualifications upon which they are basing their entry were awarded in England if they are ordinarily resident in Ireland and required to provide proof of residence. As they wouldn't be able to they would be referred back to their funding body in England for payment of their fees.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Dimitry said:

    I find the CO2 graph here offers food for thought:
    www.climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
    That rather regular "natural" fluctuation up to recent times and then a vertical climb. For me, it rather demolishes the idea that the current changes are just more of the same variation.
    But no doubt somebody here can tell me it's meaningless.

    No one isdisputing the rise in C02 emissions since the industrial revolution, the dispute is over whether it makes any material difference to the climate, and if it does, whether negatively so.
    Plus - there is evidence that the rise in CO2 follows rises in temperature not because of it. The natura; exchanges of CO2 and carbon into the atmosphere are massive compared to mankind produced.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580

    Mr. Money, if fantasy's not your cup of tea, fair enough, though I would point out there's more to fantasy than just Tolkien's approach.

    Grimdark is very popular, there's some nice comedy (Terry Pratchett, for example, is practically a subgenre by himself), fairytales also seem to be back in fashion. Of course, it's entirely possible and legitimate to like none of that, but fantasy = Tolkien is as mistaken as poetry = rhyming.

    Quite. My own preference is toward fantasy because I like world building, but one reason I think it can work so well is because, like actual history, you can have any sort of plot or topic going on to suit your own tastes. Romance, epic, comedy, urban, swashbuckling, philosophical, however light or dark you want. And then you can add whatever fantastical element you want to make it more interesting still.

    A made up world with no magical elements or dark inhuman plot, just human drama? Fine.
    The Napoleonic Wars, only with dragons? Fine
    A universe where the world has been split into 4 different worlds embodying one of the four classical elements? Fine

    And so on and so on. Each to their own I guess. I've gone a bit off dark lord plots myself in truth
  • Mr. kle4, yeah, not much of a dark lord fan myself. Although I may have one as a villain for Sir Edric at some point.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    kle4 said:

    Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I've judged it without even wasting five seconds on it. I'm told it's dark lord nonsense (aka fantasy).

    You don't believe it is possible for something to be good even if it is of a genre of which you dislike?
    Country & Western music is the stiffest test of that theory.
    And Gram Parsons shows that it is possible.

    Must admit as I have got older I appreciate Country music much more.
  • Dair said:

    @carnyx @malcolmg

    It appears the Scottish Parliament now requires people with dual EU nationality living in England to have been resident in the said country for a three month period.

    Several years to go till the day. Maybe a sabbatical and a three month trip to R o I are something to plan for the future....assuming the rules haven't changed again.....

    I'm surprised that no one has yet gone to the ECHR claiming the policy is racist......

    Despite reading your first paragraph several times it makes completely no sense whatsoever . The Scottish Parliament has no legal standing to rule on anyone who lives in England
    It does make sense if said person with dual nationality (with another EU state) living in England wishes to attend a University in Scotland in their capacity as a national of that other EU state (and therefore not pay fees), which is what this debate is about.
    They would be asked why the qualifications upon which they are basing their entry were awarded in England if they are ordinarily resident in Ireland and required to provide proof of residence. As they wouldn't be able to they would be referred back to their funding body in England for payment of their fees.
    I know, thats why you need to live in RoI for at least three months if you want to qualify for free fees and have proof of residence.

    Three months isn't a lot of time though, and it can be any three months not the three months before attending university. It appears to be the case though that a period of a year is needed to avoid a big argument when applying.

    http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets/documents/raise/publications/2014/employment_learning/4114.pdf
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580

    kle4 said:


    You don't believe it is possible for something to be good even if it is of a genre of which you dislike?

    I don't believe it's remotely plausible that I would like it given it comes from my least favourite genre (I think I'd put fantasy below chick flicks and the ridiculous martial arts crap where people fly). Since this is a genre my wife is relatively keen on and a counterexample has yet to crop up, it seems wise to apply prejudice rather than wasting precious seconds when I could be doing something really useful like typing this!

    That's fair enough, I'm not about to start watching horror movies or the like, but as an obsessive fan of the genre, I can assure you 'dark lord crap' is only a subset of fantasy. Not to say you would like other types, but it isn't all that sort of plot.
  • Danny565 said:

    LibDems get their highest score in ELBOW since 12th October!

    They could even storm up to 9% by the election at this rate!
    Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government! :)
    Which demonstrates how wrong polls can be unless it is the only one that counts.
  • Wonder how long it will be before someone turns up and starts linking to Skeptical Science and putting the appeal to authority argument.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited February 2015

    Danny565 said:

    I still say the Lib Dems' position at this election is going to be even worse than being hated: instead, they're just going to be completely irrelevant. Their whole pitch of moderating the "excesses" of Tories and Labour might seem shrewd on one level, but in such a febrile, emotional election with a host of small parties (UKIP, Greens, the SNP) offering much more newsworthy and exciting pitches, the Lib Dems are going to get completely squeezed out of the media coverage. They really are going to be solely relying on incumbent MPs' good reputations (which, on the topic, makes Tory GAIN HAZEL GROVE an underrated bet imo with the Lib Dem incumbent stepping down).

    Except that OfCom have made them one of the main parties and therefore they will gain major TV coverage.
    The Lib Dems will be running a series of individualised local campaigns this election,I don't think their standing at a national level is remotely salvageable, so the debates aren't a big thing for them in my opinion. The debates before the European Election didn't seem to help Clegg and the Lib Dems in the slightest despite having a free run as the only vocal pro-EU party.

    For the Lib Dems the important thing is that they are still recognised as a relevant party and their Ofcom major party status should enable that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580

    Mr. kle4, yeah, not much of a dark lord fan myself. Although I may have one as a villain for Sir Edric at some point.

    Done right, or played with, it can work fine so comedically I think it can be great, it's just as a fan of the genre I did come across it a bit too much in too generic a fashion. I even wrote a book several years ago where the twist (done many times by others) was that the antagonist to the heroes, most of whom were decent people, was despite that not the dark lord they thought, just, well, a normal sort of ruler who happens to be opposed to them, albeit with some dark lordy type abilities.
  • fantasy = Tolkien is as mistaken as poetry = rhyming.

    I've been exposed to enough to know you're correct. FWIW I went to the same school as Tolkien. Poetry remains a mystery, but I have some time for mysteries.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Ishmael_X said:

    kle4 said:

    Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I've judged it without even wasting five seconds on it. I'm told it's dark lord nonsense (aka fantasy).

    You don't believe it is possible for something to be good even if it is of a genre of which you dislike?
    Country & Western music is the stiffest test of that theory.
    And Gram Parsons shows that it is possible.

    Must admit as I have got older I appreciate Country music much more.
    Anyone who missed it, Reginald D Hunter's BBC programme last night about Songs of the South was top drawer - well worth viewing on Ketchup.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    edited February 2015
    Mr. kle4, indeed. It's a bit like The Prophecy or The Chosen One or The Farmboy Who Turns Out To Be Heir To The Kingdom. Bit hackneyed.

    Good for mockery, though.

    Edited extra bit: and such plots *can* work, but they've been done so much it's more difficult [because it's a well-trodden path].
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Have you tried Josh Ritter? He's more folk, but his stuff is superb.

    The story album of Arctic voyage is fantastic and heart-breaking

    This other track has an almost steel-guitar twang is
    Lights, used in Vampire Diaries -

    Ishmael_X said:

    kle4 said:

    Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I've judged it without even wasting five seconds on it. I'm told it's dark lord nonsense (aka fantasy).

    You don't believe it is possible for something to be good even if it is of a genre of which you dislike?
    Country & Western music is the stiffest test of that theory.
    And Gram Parsons shows that it is possible.

    Must admit as I have got older I appreciate Country music much more.
  • Or Clegg will be empty-chaired.

    To be replaced by a large yellow pile of something steaming and wet?
  • Mr. Betting, lemon ice-cream under studio lights?
  • The real choice nationally is whether you want an Ed Miliband led Govt or one led by Cameron. The debates should have been just those two. Voters could then make their ballot box decisions based on the outcome they wanted between the two. For some a least worse decision. Since the LDs became a 1000-1 chance to provide the next PM they are a very minor party.
  • "The Father, the Son and the Labour Ghost: Justin Welby’s son works for Tony Blair"

    Small world...all his spinners are Labour and his son works for Old Tone.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,348

    @carnyx @malcolmg

    It appears the Scottish Parliament now requires people with dual EU nationality living in England to have been resident in the said country for a three month period.

    Several years to go till the day. Maybe a sabbatical and a three month trip to R o I are something to plan for the future....assuming the rules haven't changed again.....

    I'm surprised that no one has yet gone to the ECHR claiming the policy is racist......

    Despite reading your first paragraph several times it makes completely no sense whatsoever . The Scottish Parliament has no legal standing to rule on anyone who lives in England
    It has every legal standing to rule on paying for their tuition fees at Scottish universities (which is what the discussion is in fact about, FPT, which is admittedly perhaps not clear, as is the point that anyone claiming to be, say, Irish has to prove irish residence).

    On racism, the qualification for people withinn the UK is, as has been stated many times here, on residence and not race or nationality (neither of which is legally defined in the UK anyway: there is no such thing as an English passport)

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    US 2016 Presidential Primaries and Elections. I have posted articles and stated my view on here that Hillary might not be as inevitable as is the current received wisdom. Just to prove that I don't just read and post articles that conform to my own biases, here is the countervailing view from the NYT:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/upshot/hillary-clinton-and-inevitability-this-time-is-different.html?ref=todayspaper&abt=0002&abg=0&_r=0

    I disagree with the article. There are no declared candidates against her and yet her curve is on a distinct downward trajectory already.
  • Mr. Urquhart, I'm very unsurprised to hear of the Archsocialist's links to Blair.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited February 2015
    Ooh I lurve Mr Hunter, will give him a try.

    Speaking of Southern actors - does anyone beat Walton Goggins? Andhis piano keyboard smile?

    I loved him as Venus Van Dam in Sons of Anarchy. A superb tranny. So different from Boyd Crowder in Justified or Shane in The Shield.

    Ishmael_X said:

    kle4 said:

    Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I've judged it without even wasting five seconds on it. I'm told it's dark lord nonsense (aka fantasy).

    You don't believe it is possible for something to be good even if it is of a genre of which you dislike?
    Country & Western music is the stiffest test of that theory.
    And Gram Parsons shows that it is possible.

    Must admit as I have got older I appreciate Country music much more.
    Anyone who missed it, Reginald D Hunter's BBC programme last night about Songs of the South was top drawer - well worth viewing on Ketchup.

  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    MikeK said:


    Sue ‏@English_Woman 31m31 minutes ago
    Baroness Warsi Placed Islamist Radicals at Heart of Whitehall - Breitbart http://bit.ly/1D7p5vH

    I bet that Cammo is red faced, and if he isn't, then he knew what she was up to.

    How many more times are you going to repeat the repeats of a Telegraph story which is about a '' “cross-Government working group on anti-Muslim hatred” set up by Lady Warsi and Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister. ''
    A talking shop is not 'the heart of whitehall' - no matter who sits on it.

    The tortuous nature of the Telegraph report can be judged by is comment on planning permission for a mosque - '' The planning appeal will be decided by the Department for Communities and Local Government, the same ministry which runs the working group on anti-Muslim hatred on which Mr Ahmed sits, although it reports to the Deputy Prime Minister. The decision will be announced next month''
    One of the people attacked by the report is this man -
    http://www.thepressnews.co.uk/press-news/an-amazing-day-at-palace-for-iqbal/
    ''WEST Yorkshires Batleybased Deputy Lord Lieutenant Iqbal Bhana was presented with his OBE by Prince Charles at Buckingham Palace last week.''
    He was of course awarded these posts and honours by a Labour Government.

    http://www.dewsburyreporter.co.uk/news/local/batley-man-helps-to-tackle-hate-crime-1-6619742

    He may deserve it of course - thats down to you to show - but should Warsi be attacked for appointing a deputy lord lieutenant?


  • Paging Morris Dancer

    I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"

    The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.

    One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”

    A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.

    To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"
  • Plato said:

    Ooh I lurve Mr Hunter, will give him a try.

    Speaking of Southern actors - does anyone beat Walton Goggins? Andhis piano keyboard smile?

    I loved him as Venus Van Dam in Sons of Anarchy. A superb tranny. So different from Boyd Crowder in Justified or Shane in The Shield.

    Ishmael_X said:

    kle4 said:

    Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I've judged it without even wasting five seconds on it. I'm told it's dark lord nonsense (aka fantasy).

    You don't believe it is possible for something to be good even if it is of a genre of which you dislike?
    Country & Western music is the stiffest test of that theory.
    And Gram Parsons shows that it is possible.

    Must admit as I have got older I appreciate Country music much more.
    Anyone who missed it, Reginald D Hunter's BBC programme last night about Songs of the South was top drawer - well worth viewing on Ketchup.

    He was superb in The Shield, and he used the name Cletus Van Damme on an under cover job in a couple of episodes!

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,629
    Plato said:

    Ohh, you're on dangerous territory there - the Yamal handful of tree ring data is laughably small. The *fingers of one hand* would be more comprehensive as an evidence set. Whatever one thinks of Mr Booker - the data set remains vanishingly small to support the AGW agenda.

    telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/6738111/Climategate-reveals-the-most-influential-tree-in-the-world.html

    rcs1000 said:

    Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.

    Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.

    Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
    I'm not an expert, but my understanding is that going back 10,000 years or so we have literally hundreds of tree samples for each year. Once you get to the back end of the period, it's obviously a much smaller number.

    Now, I know that tree rings are not thermometers, and the wifth of individual year's growths can vary for many different reasons, but they do give us a reasonable idea of the fluctuations we see from year-to-year.

    I'm not saying this to make any particular point - only to point out that we do have quite a lot of evidence of annual temperatures (albeit with significant margins for error).
  • I'd like to point out I compared Nick Clegg to Scipio Africanus several years ago
  • The real choice nationally is whether you want an Ed Miliband led Govt or one led by Cameron.

    There is no real national choice, just a local one. In many constituencies your vote has absolutely no hope of deciding which of the two should become PM while even in Con?Lab marginals your likelihood of swinging who will become PM is so small you would have to be very rich for it to be worth your while to fill in a postal vote. Even in non-marginals, your vote may (ever so marginally) impact the decisions of future policymakers and politicians though and potentially lead to your vote having a greater chance of affecting national leadership in future elections. Voters in non-marginals might therefore benefit from scrutiny of the full range of almost pointless options they are faced with. Instead, your proposal further marginalises those already marginalised by our daft voting system.
  • So after years of wanting to do an "Ed Balls deep in trouble" headlined thread, I might be able to do a Hannibal is crap thread on the same day
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,629

    Mr. 1000, and do those tree cores show 2014 to be the hottest year ever?

    I'd be surprised, if so. Natural variation has accounted for temperatures hotter than those currently experienced, and colder than those currently experienced. There is no compelling evidence. The IPCC got its predictions drastically wrong in its 4th report, then upgraded its confidence in its own forecasts for the 5th report.

    I have no idea, I'm just pointing out that we have an unbroken record of something going back 40,000 years which correlates quite well with temperature.
  • Mr. Eagles, someone might want to point out to them that Hannibal rampaged around Italy for about a decade, slaughtering a very substantial portion of the Roman population and several consuls before he finally left.

    And he wasn't 'driven out'. He left because Carthage was under threat.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Paging Morris Dancer

    I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"

    The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.

    One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”

    A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.

    To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"

    Eek -- according to that article, the Lib Dems are privately saying 30 seats would constitute a "good night".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015

    Mr. Eagles, someone might want to point out to them that Hannibal rampaged around Italy for about a decade, slaughtering a very substantial portion of the Roman population and several consuls before he finally left.

    And he wasn't 'driven out'. He left because Carthage was under threat.

    Left = Had a can of Roman whoop-ass opened on his ass at Zama.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,629
    GeoffM said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Miss Plato, just begun the Game of Thrones series 4 extras. Some of the DVD commentaries on previous series have been rather good, so it'll be interesting to hear them this time.

    Mr. S, hottest year on record? The Earth is about 4,500,000,000 years old, give or take, according to Google.

    Records extend how far? One century? Two? Would you judge the Lord of the Rings Trilogy by the last five seconds of The Return of the King's credits?

    I thought we had about 40,000 years of pretty good data based on tree cores.
    Actually the tree rings are a large part of the data cherry-picking controversy.

    The claims are based on the Yamal tree samples which came from only 12 specimens of 252 in the original data set. A larger data set of 34 trees from the same vicinity that weren’t used showed no dramatic recent warming, but warmer temperatures in the Middle Ages.
    Presumably The Medieval Warm Period ahead of The Little Ice Age.

    My understanding is that the University of Arizona has a fabulous resource on tree rings for the past 40,000 odd years, and show many periods of warmth and cold in that time.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Paging Morris Dancer

    I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"

    The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.

    One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”

    A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.

    To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"

    So an easy run in for the Blues in Oxford West and Abingdon then......

    I wonder if there are any seats the LibDems have written off in this strategy?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,629

    Paging Morris Dancer

    I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"

    The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.

    One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”

    A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.

    To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"

    So an easy run in for the Blues in Oxford West and Abingdon then......

    I wonder if there are any seats the LibDems have written off in this strategy?
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Large chunks of Scotland
    ...
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    rcs1000 said:

    Mr. 1000, and do those tree cores show 2014 to be the hottest year ever?

    I'd be surprised, if so. Natural variation has accounted for temperatures hotter than those currently experienced, and colder than those currently experienced. There is no compelling evidence. The IPCC got its predictions drastically wrong in its 4th report, then upgraded its confidence in its own forecasts for the 5th report.

    I have no idea, I'm just pointing out that we have an unbroken record of something going back 40,000 years which correlates quite well with temperature.
    Plato and I have pointed out that we don't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580
    edited February 2015

    Mr. Eagles, someone might want to point out to them that Hannibal rampaged around Italy for about a decade, slaughtering a very substantial portion of the Roman population and several consuls before he finally left.

    And he wasn't 'driven out'. He left because Carthage was under threat.

    So to make it work, in this case I suppose the SNP are the ones threatening 'Carthage' (that is, Labour's scottish heartlands), giving the LDs a better chance (or rather hope) of holding on or recovering ground in their own areas as Labour (Hannibal) are forced to reallocate resources to areas they thought untouchable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580
    Danny565 said:

    Paging Morris Dancer

    I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"

    The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.

    One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”

    A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.

    To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"

    Eek -- according to that article, the Lib Dems are privately saying 30 seats would constitute a "good night".
    In private, they appear to be quite realistic about their chances, which shows some sense at least.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    rcs1000 said:

    Paging Morris Dancer

    I kid you not, The FT have a story up headlined "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"

    The party has chosen to pull resources from almost every seat it does not currently hold.

    One senior MP said: “We have to sacrifice the plains and retreat to the villages and rebuild from there.”

    A party strategist compares the campaign to the tactics of the Roman army, which defeated Hannibal by letting him occupy large parts of Italy for several years before striking back and driving him out of the country.

    To read the article for free, google "Liberal Democrats take lessons from Roman army"

    So an easy run in for the Blues in Oxford West and Abingdon then......

    I wonder if there are any seats the LibDems have written off in this strategy?
    Redcar
    Burnley
    Large chunks of Scotland
    ...
    I note it says "almost every seat it does not currently hold". Which suggest there is just one, somewhere, they think they can sneak....

    Which?
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