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  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Just a reminder, Survation had Clegg losing Hallam few weeks ago.

    "cough" Lord Ashcroft: Clegg losing Hallam "cough"
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    "On the basis of the projections, the party is on course to remain competitive in seats that would fall if there was landslide against the Lib Dems, such as Cheltenham, St Ives, Cardiff Central, Eastbourne, Solihull, Cheadle, Leeds North East, Cambridge and Bermondsey. The rise in the Lib Dem vote in these seats is almost entirely undetected in national polls where the party is becalmed, it claims."

    This selective release of private polling looks like an attempt to gee up activists in those seats to me.

  • I think under BPC rules Survation have to publish this polling.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited February 2015
    The plane and it's capability it's irrelevant.

    It is the message that it gives. The reaction it draws.

    Russia has to feed the nationalistic jingoism twat Putin has created.

    Recovery of military potency and territory are the only ways he can do that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Enough clues. I am up with the Zeitgeist. It's that Eastenders thingy isn't it?
  • @DavidL

    "I just think that some UKIP supporters will be scared by the thought of Ed and Ed and will be persuaded to vote tory as a result for the good of the country."

    Many Conservative supporters are investing a great deal in that hope.

    As hopes go, it's not an unreasonable one. It may well be fulfilled. But sensible supporters like yourself recognise that it is a hope, and no more.

    Naturally I have my own hopes, and sometimes I bet on them, but I do like to get decent odds. Not sure what odds I'd want on the outcome you envisage here, but I'm sure it's no certainty.

    Peter, I think the best hope for the Conservatives is not Ukip voters returning home (although any unwind should be helpful), but Labour voters staying at home. The polling does not give much reason to believe that they will, save inasmuch as it signals a distinct lack of enthusiasm for Labour's leadership, doubt over its economic policies and support concentrated in demographics which historically have been less inclined to vote. But in terms of certainty to vote Labour's numbers are not appreciably worse (and in some cases slightly better) than current Conservative supporters. Nevertheless, if the Tories are to win the election (whatever winning looks like) it seems likely to be a result of the Labour vote staying at home (or lodging a protest). So that's where I'd be concentrating my prayers.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Survation not only are UKIP's in house pollsters, confirmation they poll for the Lib Dems as well

    ...

    The party strategists’ decision selectively to share the private polling conducted by Survation is in part an attempt to show strong local performance will prevent a serious wipeout despite dire national polls.

    Are you allowed to selectively share private poling? I thought it was all or nothing
  • Charles said:

    Survation not only are UKIP's in house pollsters, confirmation they poll for the Lib Dems as well

    ...

    The party strategists’ decision selectively to share the private polling conducted by Survation is in part an attempt to show strong local performance will prevent a serious wipeout despite dire national polls.

    Are you allowed to selectively share private poling? I thought it was all or nothing
    As per the Oakeshot farrago last year, I think they will have to publish the polls as per BPC rules.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Speedy said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Speedy said:

    FalseFlag said:

    philiph said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Neil said:

    Presumably False Flag believes that the RAF was scrambled to intercept rebel or even Ukranian planes. Certainly not Russian ones. They never stray beyond their own air space!

    International airspace is international. Free to fly there and have done so a couple of times a month for years. Clear case of war propaganda that suddenly the press is reporting it.

    He is a very dangerous man.
    It's a plan he is not aware of. What scares me about the Western propaganda is not that it is so voluminously produced but that the people dispensing it believe it.
    You don't believe there were Russian Bear long range bombers off the Cornish coast yesterday?
    Drop the jingo for a moment, "Russian Bear long range bombers" HA.
    Made in the 1950's and using propellers those things can be shot with WW2 anti-aircraft defences.
    No they weren't, they first flew in 1952 as did the B-52, which the US intends to keep operational into the 2040s, but existing aircraft all date from the 1980s-90s. I have given up trying to understand what other points you are trying to make but if they aren't long range bombers then what, in your view, are they?

    The B-52's are more modern than those (1952 American technology was far ahead than the 1952 Soviet one), but they are in use and kept in use by America because they are fighting wars with some third world dictatorships that don't have an airforce anyway.
    Also they are way cheaper to use that modern bombers.

    That is the point though:"but they are in use and kept in use because they are fighting wars with some third world dictatorships that don't have an airforce anyway."

    The russian flying junk is as terrifying to a country that has an aiforce, as a North Korean "please take notice of the mighty dear leader, pleaaaase" ultimatum to America.
    They are still long-range bombers.

    "The modern Estonian Air Force has been rebuilding the destroyed military infrastructure since 1994 when the last Russian Army units left Estonia. Most of the funds were directed to the Ämari military airfield which was completed in 2011. Due to the lack of modern and developed military aviation infrastructure the Estonian Air Force development has been very slow. All aircraft are unarmed." WP

    Just saying.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Anyone think England has a prayer against NZ tonight?

    Thought not.

    Its a tough start for them, that's for sure.
  • DavidL said:

    Anyone think England has a prayer against NZ tonight?

    Thought not.

    Its a tough start for them, that's for sure.

    I do. I think the New Zealand wickets will suit Anderson and Broad
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Neil said:

    Presumably False Flag believes that the RAF was scrambled to intercept rebel or even Ukranian planes. Certainly not Russian ones. They never stray beyond their own air space!

    LOL
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    FalseFlag said:

    Speedy said:

    FalseFlag said:

    philiph said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Neil said:

    Presumably False Flag believes that the RAF was scrambled to intercept rebel or even Ukranian planes. Certainly not Russian ones. They never stray beyond their own air space!

    International airspace is international. Free to fly there and have done so a couple of times a month for years. Clear case of war propaganda that suddenly the press is reporting it.
    Putin has a plan.

    Ukraine, Crimea, land link to Crimea, Black sea ports and coastline, the area of Ukraine with most shale oil and gas. Job just about done. International reaction tested.

    Baltic is next for a Putin test. NATO, EU, what will they do. How scared and impotent are they?

    Popular nationalism at home.

    He is a very dangerous man.
    It's a plan he is not aware of. What scares me about the Western propaganda is not that it is so voluminously produced but that the people dispensing it believe it.
    You don't believe there were Russian Bear long range bombers off the Cornish coast yesterday?
    Drop the jingo for a moment, "Russian Bear long range bombers" HA.
    Made in the 1950's and using propellers those things can be shot with WW2 anti-aircraft defences.
    What's jingoistic about pointing out uncomfortable truths about Russian military movements? They may well be old aircraft, but so was Nimrod. These are still long-range strategic weapons platforms that carry cruise missiles, or even nuclear weapons.

    Apologists for Putin's aggressive military provocations like you really need a better response than to accuse people who call him out on it as being jingoistic.
    They are flying in international airspace and have been making these flights several times a month for years, hence not news.

    They stopped making them for 15 years. Starting them again is news. But its not that we cannot cope. And we can all see - well those with eyes - where Putin comes from.
  • @Falseflag - seeing as you haven't responded to any of my points or questions, but just restated what you said earlier, I'll conclude you haven't got any argument that holds water. Thanks.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    DavidL said:

    Anyone think England has a prayer against NZ tonight?

    Thought not.

    Its a tough start for them, that's for sure.

    I do. I think the New Zealand wickets will suit Anderson and Broad
    I fear Broad and Finn are likely to suit McCullum and Williamson rather too well and Boult will shine as well. They really could have done with one of the minnows to get some vestige of confidence going.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Anyone think England has a prayer against NZ tonight?

    Thought not.

    Its a tough start for them, that's for sure.

    I do. I think the New Zealand wickets will suit Anderson and Broad
    I fear Broad and Finn are likely to suit McCullum and Williamson rather too well and Boult will shine as well. They really could have done with one of the minnows to get some vestige of confidence going.
    Well we've got Scotland on Sunday night.
  • @Flockers

    Yes, that's a pretty fair assessment, imo.
  • RobD said:
    Yeah, well if anybody's buying that, they're welcome.

    I'm not.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    RobD said:
    Yeah, well if anybody's buying that, they're welcome.

    I'm not.
    I feel the same way. I think only a change in ownership/management could really make things better.
  • Charles said:

    Survation not only are UKIP's in house pollsters, confirmation they poll for the Lib Dems as well

    ...

    The party strategists’ decision selectively to share the private polling conducted by Survation is in part an attempt to show strong local performance will prevent a serious wipeout despite dire national polls.

    Are you allowed to selectively share private poling? I thought it was all or nothing
    A propos of nothing in particular:

    @LordAshcroft: Treat with caution "internal polling" in marginal seats as any cost now counts towards the constituency limits so none done #comfortpolling
  • DavidL said:

    @DavidL

    "I just think that some UKIP supporters will be scared by the thought of Ed and Ed and will be persuaded to vote tory as a result for the good of the country."

    Many Conservative supporters are investing a great deal in that hope.

    As hopes go, it's not an unreasonable one. It may well be fulfilled. But sensible supporters like yourself recognise that it is a hope, and no more.

    Naturally I have my own hopes, and sometimes I bet on them, but I do like to get decent odds. Not sure what odds I'd want on the outcome you envisage here, but I'm sure it's no certainty.

    I agree with every word of that.

    But if the tories are losing thousands of votes in seats like those in Ld A's samples today and are still polling at about 36% by the election by definition they are doing a lot better in some areas than they did the last time.

    I still think Labour largest party, they just have too many advantages, but a more efficient Tory vote is their best bet of holding on.
    OK, David, we're agreed.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    FalseFlag said:

    philiph said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Neil said:

    Presumably False Flag believes that the RAF was scrambled to intercept rebel or even Ukranian planes. Certainly not Russian ones. They never stray beyond their own air space!

    International airspace is international. Free to fly there and have done so a couple of times a month for years. Clear case of war propaganda that suddenly the press is reporting it.
    Putin has a plan.

    Ukraine, Crimea, land link to Crimea, Black sea ports and coastline, the area of Ukraine with most shale oil and gas. Job just about done. International reaction tested.

    Baltic is next for a Putin test. NATO, EU, what will they do. How scared and impotent are they?

    Popular nationalism at home.

    He is a very dangerous man.
    It's a plan he is not aware of. What scares me about the Western propaganda is not that it is so voluminously produced but that the people dispensing it believe it.
    "its a plan he is not aware of"

    I knew you were a sock puppet for the regime but I never knew you actually knew him :-)
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    FalseFlag said:

    philiph said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Neil said:

    Presumably False Flag believes that the RAF was scrambled to intercept rebel or even Ukranian planes. Certainly not Russian ones. They never stray beyond their own air space!

    International airspace is international. Free to fly there and have done so a couple of times a month for years. Clear case of war propaganda that suddenly the press is reporting it.
    Putin has a plan.

    Ukraine, Crimea, land link to Crimea, Black sea ports and coastline, the area of Ukraine with most shale oil and gas. Job just about done. International reaction tested.

    Baltic is next for a Putin test. NATO, EU, what will they do. How scared and impotent are they?

    Popular nationalism at home.

    He is a very dangerous man.
    It's a plan he is not aware of. What scares me about the Western propaganda is not that it is so voluminously produced but that the people dispensing it believe it.
    You don't believe there were Russian Bear long range bombers off the Cornish coast yesterday?
    Drop the jingo for a moment, "Russian Bear long range bombers" HA.
    Made in the 1950's and using propellers those things can be shot with WW2 anti-aircraft defences.
    What's jingoistic about pointing out uncomfortable truths about Russian military movements? They may well be old aircraft, but so was Nimrod. These are still long-range strategic weapons platforms that carry cruise missiles, or even nuclear weapons.

    Apologists for Putin's aggressive military provocations like you really need a better response than to accuse people who call him out on it as being jingoistic.
    If the russians are going to use nuclear weapons on Britain I assure you it will be with ICBMs not with silly overgrown ceessnas that belong to a museum.

    I repeat the charge, you are running scared of junk.
    BOOOO.
    The Bears are likely practising submarine hunting.

    And NATO aircraft are routinely skirting Russian airspace. One got into a bit of trouble last year.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11009182/US-spy-plane-in-Top-Gun-game-of-chicken-over-Russian-air-space-day-after-MH17-shot-down.html
  • antifrank said:

    @LordAshcroft: Treat with caution "internal polling" in marginal seats as any cost now counts towards the constituency limits so none done #comfortpolling

    I believe quite a lot was done just before the constituency limits kicked in, though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Ishmael_X said:

    Grecian70 said:

    Marf lacks the two essential ingredients for a political cartoonist, rather like Nicholas Garland - can't draw and not especially funny.

    Hope you sued the charm school.

    Rules of the site: you laugh at the Marf cartoons. You don't laugh at the Ashcroft polls.
    and nobody mentions PBModerator...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2015
    Meanwhile, in another part of Europe, President Hollande continues to give us his step-by-step masterclass in what a Miliband government would look like.

    We've had the 'lefty posturing' stage, and the 'soak the rich until they leave' stage. and the 'idiotic populist anti-business' stage, and the 'economy is a disaster area and unemployment is catastrophic' stage.

    Now we are moving, finally, into the 'Sacré Bleu, the Right were correct all along, the only way out of this mess is Thatcherism, how do we disguise it?' stage:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31544437
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    Meanwhile, in another part of Europe, President Hollande continues to give us his step-by-step masterclass in what a Miliband government would look like.

    We've had the 'lefty posturing' stage, and the 'soak the rich until they leave' stage. and the 'idiotic populist anti-business' stage, and the 'economy is a disaster area and unemployment is catastrophic' stage.

    Now we are moving, finally, into the 'Blimey, the Right were correct all along, the only way out of this mess is Thatcherism, how do we disguise it?' stage:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31544437

    Weirdly, that is not quite the way the BBC are reporting it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    Survation not only are UKIP's in house pollsters, confirmation they poll for the Lib Dems as well

    ...

    The party strategists’ decision selectively to share the private polling conducted by Survation is in part an attempt to show strong local performance will prevent a serious wipeout despite dire national polls.

    Are you allowed to selectively share private poling? I thought it was all or nothing
    A propos of nothing in particular:

    @LordAshcroft: Treat with caution "internal polling" in marginal seats as any cost now counts towards the constituency limits so none done #comfortpolling
    A lot of this polling was done a few months ago, so I am told, so won't count towards election spending.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    MikeK said:

    NATOSource ‏@NATOSource 34m34 minutes ago
    German Soldiers Used Broomsticks Instead of Guns During NATO Exercise http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/german-soldiers-used-broomsticks-instead-of-guns-during-nato-exercise … #Germany #NRF #Norway

    Way to go NATO!

    I'm not sure if this story will turn out to be quite true. Well not true in the sense of the headlines. The broomsticks were allegedly stuck onto a Mobile HQ vehicle which is allegedly designed/tasked not to be armed. This might turn out to be a joke or a sarcastic point being made that it should have a machine gun as standard. How safe is it from IEDs is perhaps more to the point.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in another part of Europe, President Hollande continues to give us his step-by-step masterclass in what a Miliband government would look like.

    We've had the 'lefty posturing' stage, and the 'soak the rich until they leave' stage. and the 'idiotic populist anti-business' stage, and the 'economy is a disaster area and unemployment is catastrophic' stage.

    Now we are moving, finally, into the 'Blimey, the Right were correct all along, the only way out of this mess is Thatcherism, how do we disguise it?' stage:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31544437

    Weirdly, that is not quite the way the BBC are reporting it.
    Is the disguise working then?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    Survation not only are UKIP's in house pollsters, confirmation they poll for the Lib Dems as well

    ...

    The party strategists’ decision selectively to share the private polling conducted by Survation is in part an attempt to show strong local performance will prevent a serious wipeout despite dire national polls.

    Are you allowed to selectively share private poling? I thought it was all or nothing
    A propos of nothing in particular:

    @LordAshcroft: Treat with caution "internal polling" in marginal seats as any cost now counts towards the constituency limits so none done #comfortpolling
    What about if jim messinas company does it?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The EWG has finished, the greeks say they have an agreement, others say there is no agreement.
    We'll see tomorrow who is lying.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    philiph said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Neil said:

    Presumably False Flag believes that the RAF was scrambled to intercept rebel or even Ukranian planes. Certainly not Russian ones. They never stray beyond their own air space!

    International airspace is international. Free to fly there and have done so a couple of times a month for years. Clear case of war propaganda that suddenly the press is reporting it.
    Putin has a plan.

    Ukraine, Crimea, land link to Crimea, Black sea ports and coastline, the area of Ukraine with most shale oil and gas. Job just about done. International reaction tested.

    Baltic is next for a Putin test. NATO, EU, what will they do. How scared and impotent are they?

    Popular nationalism at home.

    He is a very dangerous man.
    If push comes to shove, which it never will because he'll salami slice, I don't think Putin believes the West has the stomach or resolve to militarily defend the Baltic States.

    What would NATO do if a 'pro-Russian' rebellion 'broke out' in part of Lithunia or Estonia with a Russian majority population. I suspect more sanctions, and a small naval fleet would position itself off Riga doing flying displays, and we might supply arms to those Baltic states. But that's it.

    Poland is different. First because of history, no one would stand for any shenanigans there, second there are minimal Russian minorities there, and third Poland has fully learnt the lessons of not relying on others for its defence and will arm itself and fight back if pushed.
    If you think the average Brit will think it OK to invade his/her stag/hen party destination of choice then I think you are in for a shock. It will be a shock for the locals to change their Euros for Roubles.
  • The cover of this week's Economist is funny.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2015
    DavidL said:

    Weirdly, that is not quite the way the BBC are reporting it.

    It has to be admitted that the Parti Socialiste's embracing of Thatcherism is not yet entirely whole-hearted. Manuel Valls is clearly sane, but the reforms so far are pretty piddling, and he had trouble getting even those agreed.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    RobD said:

    Grecian70 said:

    Marf lacks the two essential ingredients for a political cartoonist, rather like Nicholas Garland - can't draw and not especially funny.

    What an entrance!
    Certainly an individual of strong beliefs.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Haha was on Sturridge massive fgs and Balotelli wouldn't let him take pen!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    philiph said:

    DavidL said:

    Meanwhile, in another part of Europe, President Hollande continues to give us his step-by-step masterclass in what a Miliband government would look like.

    We've had the 'lefty posturing' stage, and the 'soak the rich until they leave' stage. and the 'idiotic populist anti-business' stage, and the 'economy is a disaster area and unemployment is catastrophic' stage.

    Now we are moving, finally, into the 'Blimey, the Right were correct all along, the only way out of this mess is Thatcherism, how do we disguise it?' stage:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31544437

    Weirdly, that is not quite the way the BBC are reporting it.
    Is the disguise working then?
    Not really. No one really believes the BBC is impartial anymore.

    Oh, you mean the foreign chap? I think the jury is still out on that.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Artist said:

    "On the basis of the projections, the party is on course to remain competitive in seats that would fall if there was landslide against the Lib Dems, such as Cheltenham, St Ives, Cardiff Central, Eastbourne, Solihull, Cheadle, Leeds North East, Cambridge and Bermondsey. The rise in the Lib Dem vote in these seats is almost entirely undetected in national polls where the party is becalmed, it claims."

    This selective release of private polling looks like an attempt to gee up activists in those seats to me.

    Ashcroft's constituency polling already tells us that the Lib Dems "remain competitive" in most of those.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/cambridge/
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/cardiff-central/
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/solihull/

    and all the rest.
  • Just done a Yougov poll with a two part voting question. other questions on economy, gender abortion, attitudes to racism (yawn)
  • Told you it was Bobby!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2015
    LOL, you really have to laugh at the Guardian!

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/19/telegraph-250m-loan-hsbc-editorial-changes-yodel

    The owners of the Daily Telegraph secured a £250m loan from HSBC for a struggling corner of their business empire shortly before the newspaper’s reporters were allegedly “discouraged” from running articles critical of the bank, the Guardian has learned.

    Here we go again, Proverbs 26:11 applies.

    But what's this, just three paragraphs later in the very same Guardian smear-fest?

    The documents show that Sir David and Sir Frederick Barclay had to formally give a personal financial guarantee as additional security for the loan facility.

    Now, don't get me wrong, I'm no fan of the Telegraph or the Barclay Brothers, still less Yodel, whose delivery record to Nabavi Towers does not, shall we say, exactly inspire confidence. But the idea that a loan of £250m, secured on Yodel's business and with a personal guarantee by the mega-rich Barclay brothers, is some kind of reason for the Telegraph to be soft on HSBC is an insult to conspiracy theorists.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    Told you it was Bobby!

    Yes, yes in the shower and the last 3 years were all a dream...

    Wrong soap?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Told you it was Bobby!

    Bugger I was on Cindy!!

  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Speedy said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Speedy said:

    FalseFlag said:

    philiph said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Neil said:

    Presumably False Flag believes that the RAF was scrambled to intercept rebel or even Ukranian planes. Certainly not Russian ones. They never stray beyond their own air space!

    International airspace is international. Free to fly there and have done so a couple of times a month for years. Clear case of war propaganda that suddenly the press is reporting it.
    Putin has a plan.

    Ukraine, Crimea, land link to Crimea, Black sea ports and coastline, the area of Ukraine with most shale oil and gas. Job just about done. International reaction tested.

    Baltic is next for a Putin test. NATO, EU, what will they do. How scared and impotent are they?

    Popular nationalism at home.

    He is a very dangerous man.
    It's a plan he is not aware of. What scares me about the Western propaganda is not that it is so voluminously produced but that the people dispensing it believe it.
    You don't believe there were Russian Bear long range bombers off the Cornish coast yesterday?
    Drop the jingo for a moment, "Russian Bear long range bombers" HA.
    Made in the 1950's and using propellers those things can be shot with WW2 anti-aircraft defences.
    The russian flying junk is as terrifying to a country that has an aiforce, as a North Korean "please take notice of the mighty dear leader, pleaaaase" ultimatum to America.
    There's a distinct possibility that the bears are configured for elint collection. The intent being to force air defence radars to become active by not using transponders and forcing the RAF to skin paint them thereby revealing a great deal of intelligence about NATO radar technology.
  • Artist said:

    "On the basis of the projections, the party is on course to remain competitive in seats that would fall if there was landslide against the Lib Dems, such as Cheltenham, St Ives, Cardiff Central, Eastbourne, Solihull, Cheadle, Leeds North East, Cambridge and Bermondsey. The rise in the Lib Dem vote in these seats is almost entirely undetected in national polls where the party is becalmed, it claims."

    This selective release of private polling looks like an attempt to gee up activists in those seats to me.

    Jeepers. "Remain competitive" sounds like they're behind. If that's meant to gee em up its blimmin bleak stuff.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited February 2015
    First bit of movement for a while in the tory price tonight - tightening. Prob means the YG will be a solid Lab lead ;-)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Fallon says Putin is as big a threat as IS

    FFS thankfully Blair no longer has his finger on our nuclear button
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    Artist said:

    "On the basis of the projections, the party is on course to remain competitive in seats that would fall if there was landslide against the Lib Dems, such as Cheltenham, St Ives, Cardiff Central, Eastbourne, Solihull, Cheadle, Leeds North East, Cambridge and Bermondsey. The rise in the Lib Dem vote in these seats is almost entirely undetected in national polls where the party is becalmed, it claims."

    This selective release of private polling looks like an attempt to gee up activists in those seats to me.

    Jeepers. "Remain competitive" sounds like they're behind. If that's meant to gee em up its blimmin bleak stuff.
    I'm intrigued by the "rise in the Lib Dem vote" that is alluded to. Surely just an odd turn of phrase, and not an actual rise?

    If they have to release all 100 polls, I look forward to seeing what the party has in Watford and Ashfield.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    Artist said:

    "On the basis of the projections, the party is on course to remain competitive in seats that would fall if there was landslide against the Lib Dems, such as Cheltenham, St Ives, Cardiff Central, Eastbourne, Solihull, Cheadle, Leeds North East, Cambridge and Bermondsey. The rise in the Lib Dem vote in these seats is almost entirely undetected in national polls where the party is becalmed, it claims."

    This selective release of private polling looks like an attempt to gee up activists in those seats to me.

    Jeepers. "Remain competitive" sounds like they're behind. If that's meant to gee em up its blimmin bleak stuff.
    Yep . And you're not getting much of that sort of positivity North of the border.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited February 2015
    Surely Thatcher did it.

    Killed Lucy ...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Told you it was Bobby!

    Ha i was told Bobby when it was 4/1 w paddy power and VC... Couldn't get on wit them and ended up taking 6/4 coral and 5/6 betfair

    Winners a winner... Max bet £160!!!!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723

    Artist said:

    "On the basis of the projections, the party is on course to remain competitive in seats that would fall if there was landslide against the Lib Dems, such as Cheltenham, St Ives, Cardiff Central, Eastbourne, Solihull, Cheadle, Leeds North East, Cambridge and Bermondsey. The rise in the Lib Dem vote in these seats is almost entirely undetected in national polls where the party is becalmed, it claims."

    This selective release of private polling looks like an attempt to gee up activists in those seats to me.

    Jeepers. "Remain competitive" sounds like they're behind. If that's meant to gee em up its blimmin bleak stuff.
    Indeed. It's a bizarre phrase - I could easily see someone using it to describe anything up to 10% behind.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Friday's Daily Torygraph front page: Millions of savers pay rip off fees

    Presumably every bank except HSBC has been ripping savers off!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Fallon says Putin is as big a threat as IS

    FFS thankfully Blair no longer has his finger on our nuclear button

    Up until a few weeks ago I would have agreed with you. However after a couple of sessions with a specialist who had the data, foresight, scenarios and predictions to make a compelling case that Putin is as big a threat as ISIS. Indeed, I would say bigger threat, ISIS will hopefully be hollowed out to a weak shell by October
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Friday's Daily Torygraph front page: Millions of savers pay rip off fees

    Presumably every bank except HSBC has been ripping savers off!

    If you believe it's the torygraph, you really haven't been paying attention.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    saddened said:

    Speedy said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Speedy said:

    FalseFlag said:

    philiph said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Neil said:

    Presumably False Flag believes that the RAF was scrambled to intercept rebel or even Ukranian planes. Certainly not Russian ones. They never stray beyond their own air space!

    International airspace is international. Free to fly there and have done so a couple of times a month for years. Clear case of war propaganda that suddenly the press is reporting it.
    Putin has a plan.

    Ukraine, Crimea, land link to Crimea, Black sea ports and coastline, the area of Ukraine with most shale oil and gas. Job just about done. International reaction tested.

    Baltic is next for a Putin test. NATO, EU, what will they do. How scared and impotent are they?

    Popular nationalism at home.

    He is a very dangerous man.
    It's a plan he is not aware of. What scares me about the Western propaganda is not that it is so voluminously produced but that the people dispensing it believe it.
    You don't believe there were Russian Bear long range bombers off the Cornish coast yesterday?
    Drop the jingo for a moment, "Russian Bear long range bombers" HA.
    Made in the 1950's and using propellers those things can be shot with WW2 anti-aircraft defences.
    The russian flying junk is as terrifying to a country that has an aiforce, as a North Korean "please take notice of the mighty dear leader, pleaaaase" ultimatum to America.
    There's a distinct possibility that the bears are configured for elint collection. The intent being to force air defence radars to become active by not using transponders and forcing the RAF to skin paint them thereby revealing a great deal of intelligence about NATO radar technology.
    Eh? The Air Defence radars are always active. Otherwise an aggressor could simply turn off their transponder and appear anywhere by surprise.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    The Daily Telegraph has been politically conservative in modern times. The personal links between the paper's editors and the leadership of the Conservative Party, along with the paper's generally right wing stance and influence over Conservative activists, have resulted in the paper commonly being referred to, especially in Private Eye, as the Torygraph.
  • Local by-election preview now in header
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Basil....Keeping On, Keeping On. Labour 1% ahead....again.


    January the crossover month, Febraury the pulling away month.

    Basiliscious!!!!
  • YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Friday's Daily Express front page: MILLIONS SET FOR TAX CUTS

    Magic money tree?
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    saddened said:

    Speedy said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Speedy said:

    FalseFlag said:

    philiph said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Neil said:

    Presumably False Flag believes that the RAF was scrambled to intercept rebel or even Ukranian planes. Certainly not Russian ones. They never stray beyond their own air space!

    International airspace is international. Free to fly there and have done so a couple of times a month for years. Clear case of war propaganda that suddenly the press is reporting it.
    Putin has a plan.

    Ukraine, Crimea, land link to Crimea, Black sea ports and coastline, the area of Ukraine with most shale oil and gas. Job just about done. International reaction tested.

    Baltic is next for a Putin test. NATO, EU, what will they do. How scared and impotent are they?

    Popular nationalism at home.

    He is a very dangerous man.
    It's a plan he is not aware of. What scares me about the Western propaganda is not that it is so voluminously produced but that the people dispensing it believe it.
    You don't believe there were Russian Bear long range bombers off the Cornish coast yesterday?
    Drop the jingo for a moment, "Russian Bear long range bombers" HA.
    Made in the 1950's and using propellers those things can be shot with WW2 anti-aircraft defences.
    The russian flying junk is as terrifying to a country that has an aiforce, as a North Korean "please take notice of the mighty dear leader, pleaaaase" ultimatum to America.
    There's a distinct possibility that the bears are configured for elint collection. The intent being to force air defence radars to become active by not using transponders and forcing the RAF to skin paint them thereby revealing a great deal of intelligence about NATO radar technology.
    Eh? The Air Defence radars are always active.
    Air defence radars are multi mode, the intent is to force as many of those modes to be activated to allow them to be analysed. Search radars are at the very bottom of the technical and capabilities end of the spectrum and they are the ones that are always on.
  • Clear Yellow water between the Lib Dems and Greens
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Friday's Daily Express front page: MILLIONS SET FOR TAX CUTS

    Magic money tree?

    Is that a typo? Should that not be Millionaires, and isn't it a year or so late?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited February 2015

    The Daily Telegraph has been politically conservative in modern times. The personal links between the paper's editors and the leadership of the Conservative Party, along with the paper's generally right wing stance and influence over Conservative activists, have resulted in the paper commonly being referred to, especially in Private Eye, as the Torygraph.

    The Berrys (Camrose) were married into the Conservative Party.

    Black (who bought it in, I think, 84) was an ideological soulmate of Thatcher

    It's only after the boys from Brecqhou got involved that it all began to go downhill
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,568
    LAB - 33% (-1) CON - 32% (-) UKIP - 15% (+1) LDEM - 9% (+1) GRN - 6% (-)

    Drift, drift. Tick, tock...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG - EICIPM
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited February 2015

    LAB - 33% (-1) CON - 32% (-) UKIP - 15% (+1) LDEM - 9% (+1) GRN - 6% (-)

    Drift, drift. Tick, tock...

    Beware Nick .....March is.......REGULAR MAJORITY WINNING LEAD MONTH.

    **** Shudders *****
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Charles said:

    The Daily Telegraph has been politically conservative in modern times. The personal links between the paper's editors and the leadership of the Conservative Party, along with the paper's generally right wing stance and influence over Conservative activists, have resulted in the paper commonly being referred to, especially in Private Eye, as the Torygraph.

    The Berrys (Harmsworth) were married into the Conservative Party.

    Black (who bought it in, I think, 84) was an ideological soulmate of Thatcher

    It's only after the boys from Brecqhou got involved that it all began to go downhill

    I cant remember the last time I saw anyone carrying the Telegraph but then again, I don't commute.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015
    Edited
  • YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    Q. How do YG get such little variation? Doesn't make sense unless they poll the same people every day? Should be much more MoE showing surely?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Best Lib Dem share with YouGov since August 2014

    13th August?
  • Basil....Keeping On, Keeping On. Labour 1% ahead....again.


    January the crossover month, Febraury the pulling away month.

    Basiliscious!!!!

    Very fast fingers again - have you and Peter Kellner ever been seen together in the same room?
  • Best Lib Dem share with YouGov since August 2014

    13th August?
    Nope they go 9% a few weeks ago.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015
    Who wants to price up Libs and greens combined vs ukip GE vote share?? Any offers??
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    No Tory representative tonight on #bbcqt as we have @CarolineFlintMP @normanlamb @DuncanBannatyne @NicolaSturgeon and Lord Heseltine.

    Heseltine is virtually a socialist these days isn't he?
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    edited February 2015
    isam said:

    Who wants to prove up Libs and greens combined vs ukip GE vote share?? Any offers??

    Yes I'll take that. What odds? You're going on the ukip side I guess? ;-)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Best Lib Dem share with YouGov since August 2014

    Yikes. A year ago, they were atleast consistently getting 10% or so.
  • YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    Q. How do YG get such little variation? Doesn't make sense unless they poll the same people every day? Should be much more MoE showing surely?
    I agree ..... it's quite extraordinary.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    LOL, you really have to laugh at the Guardian!

    http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/feb/19/telegraph-250m-loan-hsbc-editorial-changes-yodel

    The owners of the Daily Telegraph secured a £250m loan from HSBC for a struggling corner of their business empire shortly before the newspaper’s reporters were allegedly “discouraged” from running articles critical of the bank, the Guardian has learned.

    Here we go again, Proverbs 26:11 applies.

    But what's this, just three paragraphs later in the very same Guardian smear-fest?

    The documents show that Sir David and Sir Frederick Barclay had to formally give a personal financial guarantee as additional security for the loan facility.

    Now, don't get me wrong, I'm no fan of the Telegraph or the Barclay Brothers, still less Yodel, whose delivery record to Nabavi Towers does not, shall we say, exactly inspire confidence. But the idea that a loan of £250m, secured on Yodel's business and with a personal guarantee by the mega-rich Barclay brothers, is some kind of reason for the Telegraph to be soft on HSBC is an insult to conspiracy theorists.

    Why ? Have you seen the loan document ? There maybe clauses in there where the bank could call the loan in. Therefore, don't upset them !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Best Lib Dem share with YouGov since August 2014

    13th August?
    Nope they go 9% a few weeks ago.
    Is February called August now

    I must keep up
  • No Tory representative tonight on #bbcqt as we have @CarolineFlintMP @normanlamb @DuncanBannatyne @NicolaSturgeon and Lord Heseltine.

    Heseltine is virtually a socialist these days isn't he?

    Only 5 lefties on the panel and a wet Tory. Usual BBC balance then.
  • YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    Q. How do YG get such little variation? Doesn't make sense unless they poll the same people every day? Should be much more MoE showing surely?
    YouGov has a polling panel of about 300k - so the same people not polled everyday.

  • Best Lib Dem share with YouGov since August 2014

    13th August?
    Nope they go 9% a few weeks ago.
    Is February called August now

    I must keep up
    I'm writing one of Sunday's threads, and watching the telly.

    I'm distracted.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    The Daily Telegraph has been politically conservative in modern times. The personal links between the paper's editors and the leadership of the Conservative Party, along with the paper's generally right wing stance and influence over Conservative activists, have resulted in the paper commonly being referred to, especially in Private Eye, as the Torygraph.

    The Berrys (Harmsworth) were married into the Conservative Party.

    Black (who bought it in, I think, 84) was an ideological soulmate of Thatcher

    It's only after the boys from Brecqhou got involved that it all began to go downhill

    I cant remember the last time I saw anyone carrying the Telegraph but then again, I don't commute.
    I used to read it most days. Probably haven't touched it for a decade.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    Q. How do YG get such little variation? Doesn't make sense unless they poll the same people every day? Should be much more MoE showing surely?
    YouGov has a polling panel of about 300k - so the same people not polled everyday.

    Do you have any thoughts on why YouGov numbers don't show any real wild swings, that say Ashcroft polling has exhibited.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited February 2015

    Charles said:

    The Daily Telegraph has been politically conservative in modern times. The personal links between the paper's editors and the leadership of the Conservative Party, along with the paper's generally right wing stance and influence over Conservative activists, have resulted in the paper commonly being referred to, especially in Private Eye, as the Torygraph.

    The Berrys (Harmsworth) were married into the Conservative Party.

    Black (who bought it in, I think, 84) was an ideological soulmate of Thatcher

    It's only after the boys from Brecqhou got involved that it all began to go downhill

    I cant remember the last time I saw anyone carrying the Telegraph but then again, I don't commute.
    I can't remember the last time I saw anyone carrying anything other than free copies of Metro or the Standard, and I do commute. Most thesedays read or listen to a smartphone or pad and don't buy a paper.

    The Daily Mail have won the commuter Smartphone/pad battle hands down because they have a free app that downloads the paper before you leave the house automatically so still works when you are out of coverage or in a tunnel etc. Its also now widely read by commuters in the USA and Australia to the extent that they have their own domestic version of the Daily Mail online to download to their smartphones - and of course the free Metro is just a lite version of the Daily Mail.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Who wants to prove up Libs and greens combined vs ukip GE vote share?? Any offers??

    Yes I'll take that. What odds? You're going on the ukip side I guess? ;-)
    You price it and I'll see if I want to bet
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    http://electionforecast.co.uk/

    Lab back ahead with these after 1 day of Tory plurality
  • YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    Q. How do YG get such little variation? Doesn't make sense unless they poll the same people every day? Should be much more MoE showing surely?
    I agree ..... it's quite extraordinary.
    They poll over two days, is the poll for 11-12 Feb (for example) a completely new poll, or the "second half" of the 10-11 Feb poll plus a new day's polling for the 12th. If so, it might account for some of the stability.

  • YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    Q. How do YG get such little variation? Doesn't make sense unless they poll the same people every day? Should be much more MoE showing surely?
    YouGov has a polling panel of about 300k - so the same people not polled everyday.

    So how come such static results Mike? Scratching my head over it.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    No Tory representative tonight on #bbcqt as we have @CarolineFlintMP @normanlamb @DuncanBannatyne @NicolaSturgeon and Lord Heseltine.

    Heseltine is virtually a socialist these days isn't he?

    Only 5 lefties on the panel and a wet Tory. Usual BBC balance then.
    It is a bit unbalanced I agree
  • YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    Q. How do YG get such little variation? Doesn't make sense unless they poll the same people every day? Should be much more MoE showing surely?
    I agree ..... it's quite extraordinary.
    They poll over two days, is the poll for 11-12 Feb (for example) a completely new poll, or the "second half" of the 10-11 Feb poll plus a new day's polling for the 12th. If so, it might account for some of the stability.

    They used to do a rolling poll didn't they but thought that was then dropped for one offs every day?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    The Daily Telegraph has been politically conservative in modern times. The personal links between the paper's editors and the leadership of the Conservative Party, along with the paper's generally right wing stance and influence over Conservative activists, have resulted in the paper commonly being referred to, especially in Private Eye, as the Torygraph.

    The Berrys (Harmsworth) were married into the Conservative Party.

    Black (who bought it in, I think, 84) was an ideological soulmate of Thatcher

    It's only after the boys from Brecqhou got involved that it all began to go downhill

    I cant remember the last time I saw anyone carrying the Telegraph but then again, I don't commute.
    I used to read it most days. Probably haven't touched it for a decade.
    Me too, maybe a bit more than a decade.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    Q. How do YG get such little variation? Doesn't make sense unless they poll the same people every day? Should be much more MoE showing surely?
    YouGov has a polling panel of about 300k - so the same people not polled everyday.

    So how come such static results Mike? Scratching my head over it.
    When Audrey releases her extraordinary findings we will know why the polls are wrong
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    Who wants to prove up Libs and greens combined vs ukip GE vote share?? Any offers??

    Yes I'll take that. What odds? You're going on the ukip side I guess? ;-)
    You price it and I'll see if I want to bet
    You threw the bait ;-) Well evens then I suppose? Me LDs & Greens vote share to equal or beat Ukip vote share. Dicey bet cos I can see something like 7 + 4 vs 12 giving you the win so only bit of fun for a low stake plse. £10? You may hook someone wanting bigger volume.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Flint always looks as if she could do with a bath.
This discussion has been closed.