Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Undefined discussion subject.

13

Comments

  • Some biblical stories get told more often than others. This is one of the less often-told ones:

    https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Genesis 34
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    My only interest in weather is what it means for my garden. This year - despite a very mild winter - and planting my spring bulbs reasonably early and lots of mulching, so far only one or two brave irises have poked their heads up. A bit pathetic I must say, considering it's mid-Feb.

    They need to pull their socks up! The snowdrops have been flowering non-stop since last November.

    So either they're in a sulk or they're nice and cosy under all that earth and are behaving like teenagers refusing to get out of bed or the mice/birds/squirrels have eaten them all, the bastards.

    My next task is to find an orange tree which will survive in my sunny south-facing garden. Any tips welcome!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Smarmeron said:

    @TOPPING
    " accurate to 0.0000005 deg. "
    Fortunately for modern scientists they don't need to be anywhere near that level of accuracy because the variations are of a far larger magnitude.
    And to those quoting the bible on here, it's pointless. Unless something has a price tag on it, Tories don't believe it exists.

    The variations are indeed bigger than that little number.

    The science however is of questionable quality, he said as the climates on Mars and Venus warm up due to AGW
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scottish Betting Post @Pulpstar @antifrank

    Just trying to convince a friend to vote SNP in Dunbartonshire East. Doing my bit for the cause, and my 9/4 bet.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    antifrank said:

    Some biblical stories get told more often than others. This is one of the less often-told ones:

    https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Genesis 34

    It's very true to life, to take disproportionate revenge.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    Tim_B said:

    murali_s said:

    Tim_B said:

    More proof of global warming - it is going down to 9 degrees Fahrenheit here on Wednesday overnight.

    Let's cherry pick one location then...

    Meanwhile across the whole World, temperatures are anomalously warm. January 2015 is likely to be warmest January ever recorded (or at the very least in the top 3) and February most likely will follow suit....

    http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_pastMTH_equir.html

    What do we know?

    1 - the earth's climate warms and cools over time. Roman Britain was warmer than Britain's current climate.

    2 - The two ice ages and the medieval cooling period are more evidence of this.

    What we don't know is whether and how human activity affected all this. Common sense says that it probably has had some affect, but we don't know how much if any definitively.

    So these international conferences - with hundreds of aircraft bringing the conferees to the site, to work out how to keep the temperature change to 2 degrees C - are utter nonsense.
    I've always wondered if the idea is for us to keep the climate exactly as it is now forever more, which would require a lot more work than simply limiting man's effect on it.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Smarmeron said:

    @TOPPING
    " accurate to 0.0000005 deg. "
    Fortunately for modern scientists they don't need to be anywhere near that level of accuracy because the variations are of a far larger magnitude.
    And to those quoting the bible on here, it's pointless. Unless something has a price tag on it, Tories don't believe it exists.

    That's unworthy and doesn't deserve a response, as it verges on personal insult.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited February 2015
    Cyclefree said:

    My only interest in weather is what it means for my garden. This year - despite a very mild winter - and planting my spring bulbs reasonably early and lots of mulching, so far only one or two brave irises have poked their heads up. A bit pathetic I must say, considering it's mid-Feb.

    They need to pull their socks up! The snowdrops have been flowering non-stop since last November.

    So either they're in a sulk or they're nice and cosy under all that earth and are behaving like teenagers refusing to get out of bed or the mice/birds/squirrels have eaten them all, the bastards.

    My next task is to find an orange tree which will survive in my sunny south-facing garden. Any tips welcome!

    My snowdrops are only just beginning to flower now, which is late for them.

    Sulk, cosy, truculent teenager, animal food or maybe rotting if the soil was too wet for too long, not wishing to add another negative possibility.

    No idea on Orange trees, not my area of horticulture, sorry.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    I'm not an expert on AGW, I'm comfortable sitting on the fence. But just because the majority of scientists are in favour doesn't mean it's settled.

    A famous book on the philosophy of science says that there is always a prevailing theory that dominates the field, and stays in place even when conflicting data are generated.

    A paradigm shift is necessary. But a Nobel Prize winner for Physics once said "Scientific theories don't change because old scientists change their mind; they change because old scientists die."

    AGW may grow into real science and one day be able to predict. But it may not. I 'll remain on the fence
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Tim_B
    I have worked out what personal insults are Tim, I get them regularly on here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Alistair said:

    Scottish Betting Post @Pulpstar @antifrank

    Just trying to convince a friend to vote SNP in Dunbartonshire East. Doing my bit for the cause, and my 9/4 bet.

    Please !

    I'm on all 3 parties here, but will net a bit over 200 profit with the SNP (80 loss with Lib Dem hold)
  • Considered review of the Greens: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/green-party-voters-environmentalists-socialists-or-protest-voters/

    "...Green voters are the most likely to strongly dislike Nigel Farage’s party. The increasingly tough immigration rhetoric of the Labour Party may, therefore, have cost them votes to the only vocally pro-immigration party – the Greens. In sum, we can see three protests that Green Party voters are voicing – against the actions of the Liberal Democrats in office, against British politics in general and against the appeasement of Farage’s party by the three centre parties."
  • Smarmeron said:

    @Tim_B
    I have worked out what personal insults are Tim, I get them regularly on here.

    Remember the compliments and forget the insults.

    Once you've got that sussed, tell me how you manage it.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited February 2015
    Rev J C Flannel is alive and well.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31499189

    Looks as if The Bench of Bishops will in for a bashing.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Smarmeron said:

    @Tim_B
    I have worked out what personal insults are Tim, I get them regularly on here.

    not from me
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr Dancer,

    I'm sure you're right. The logical conclusions always end in an endless cycle or a series of turtles. But cycles are never totally the same and never can be.

    Of course, we're assuming that all other universes have similar physics, but if they're infinite, there's an infinite number that will. And an infinite number that last forever.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    edited February 2015
    antifrank said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Tim_B
    I have worked out what personal insults are Tim, I get them regularly on here.

    Remember the compliments and forget the insults.

    Once you've got that sussed, tell me how you manage it.
    I have been insulted many times and often and I chalk each up as a personal victory.

    The more personal/absurd the insult the greater my confidence in the acuity of my argument (talkin' to you @SeanT).
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @antifrank
    Insults are easy, it's the internet, you either laugh at them because they are clever, or laugh at the person handing them out because he/she isn't.
    Compliments are somewhat tricky on here, I never get enough to formulate a scientific opinion.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    MTimT said:

    TOPPING said:

    Anorak said:

    Tim_B said:

    More proof of global warming - it is going down to 9 degrees Fahrenheit here on Wednesday overnight.

    Nice troll. I'll bite (well, nibble). Here's xkcd: http://xkcd.com/1321/
    independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

    Can't get past the paywall on your link. But being born in Plymouth in 1958, I recall that there were just 2 snowfalls in my first 20 years (winters of 1962/3, 1977/8). If anything, snow in Devon and Cornwall seems a much more common occurrence these days.
    I think your memory might not be perfect.

    Serious drifting in the West Country.
    Not Plymouth, but when was the last time there was 10 inches in Dover?
    [From the archive of Monthly Weather Reports]

    And those are from unexceptional years, unlike 62/63, but they would qualify as very exceptional these days.
    I mention my memory specifically about Plymouth and you post general statements about England where the highest level of resolution is South West. It is very often that there is snow on Dartmoor but not in Plymouth. How has what you posted refuted my memory?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    Smarmeron said:

    @antifrank
    Insults are easy, it's the internet, you either laugh at them because they are clever, or laugh at the person handing them out because he/she isn't.
    Compliments are somewhat tricky on here, I never get enough to formulate a scientific opinion.

    Brilliant post.
  • Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: BREAKING: I can exclusively reveal that Harriet Yeo, chairman of Labour's NEC 2012-13, is quitting the party over Ed M's position on Europe

    Now supporting UKIP apparently: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11418374/Top-Labour-figure-dumps-Ed-Miliband-for-Ukip.html

    Straw in the wind, or just a one-off?
  • Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: BREAKING: I can exclusively reveal that Harriet Yeo, chairman of Labour's NEC 2012-13, is quitting the party over Ed M's position on Europe

    Now supporting UKIP apparently: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11418374/Top-Labour-figure-dumps-Ed-Miliband-for-Ukip.html

    Straw in the wind, or just a one-off?
    You've missed the most important question. Who on earth is she?
  • Smarmeron said:

    @antifrank
    Insults are easy, it's the internet, you either laugh at them because they are clever, or laugh at the person handing them out because he/she isn't.
    Compliments are somewhat tricky on here, I never get enough to formulate a scientific opinion.

    To give you your due, you have worked tirelessly to ensure that state of affairs.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Cyclefree said:

    My only interest in weather is what it means for my garden. This year - despite a very mild winter - and planting my spring bulbs reasonably early and lots of mulching, so far only one or two brave irises have poked their heads up. A bit pathetic I must say, considering it's mid-Feb.

    They need to pull their socks up! The snowdrops have been flowering non-stop since last November.

    So either they're in a sulk or they're nice and cosy under all that earth and are behaving like teenagers refusing to get out of bed or the mice/birds/squirrels have eaten them all, the bastards.

    My next task is to find an orange tree which will survive in my sunny south-facing garden. Any tips welcome!

    Snowdrops out since New Years Eve, primroses now out. Red admiral flying around today was the first of the year, as was the bumble bee.

    We have a lovely espalier lemon tree that sits happily on a window sill, which I can heartily recommend. Lots of fruit, which we wait to fall, rather than pick - they are at their best flavour then. Just don't keep them wet - they hate that.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    CD13 said:

    I'm not an expert on AGW, I'm comfortable sitting on the fence. But just because the majority of scientists are in favour doesn't mean it's settled.

    A famous book on the philosophy of science says that there is always a prevailing theory that dominates the field, and stays in place even when conflicting data are generated.

    A paradigm shift is necessary. But a Nobel Prize winner for Physics once said "Scientific theories don't change because old scientists change their mind; they change because old scientists die."

    AGW may grow into real science and one day be able to predict. But it may not. I 'll remain on the fence

    Absolutely. It was absolutely certain that the Earth was flat until it wasn't. Or that we were nearing the end of science until quantum physics appeared. Or that we could have a full set of mathematical proofs. The only thing settled about science is that it is never settled. It is just good enough until a better explanation turns up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Lib Dems reduced to an asterix in Scotland in the ICM cross breaks.
  • antifrank said:

    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: BREAKING: I can exclusively reveal that Harriet Yeo, chairman of Labour's NEC 2012-13, is quitting the party over Ed M's position on Europe

    Now supporting UKIP apparently: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11418374/Top-Labour-figure-dumps-Ed-Miliband-for-Ukip.html

    Straw in the wind, or just a one-off?
    You've missed the most important question. Who on earth is she?
    Now now, antifrank. She's got her own wikipedia page stub and everything: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harriet_Yeo
  • Considered review of the Greens: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/green-party-voters-environmentalists-socialists-or-protest-voters/

    "...Green voters are the most likely to strongly dislike Nigel Farage’s party. The increasingly tough immigration rhetoric of the Labour Party may, therefore, have cost them votes to the only vocally pro-immigration party – the Greens. In sum, we can see three protests that Green Party voters are voicing – against the actions of the Liberal Democrats in office, against British politics in general and against the appeasement of Farage’s party by the three centre parties."

    Hmmmmmm. It suggests that only around 34% of voters strongly dislike UKIP. That doesn't fit the narrative on here in recent days.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    antifrank said:

    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: BREAKING: I can exclusively reveal that Harriet Yeo, chairman of Labour's NEC 2012-13, is quitting the party over Ed M's position on Europe

    Now supporting UKIP apparently: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11418374/Top-Labour-figure-dumps-Ed-Miliband-for-Ukip.html

    Straw in the wind, or just a one-off?
    You've missed the most important question. Who on earth is she?
    I just hope Andrea isnt around to read this post. Has all his work been in vain?!

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: BREAKING: I can exclusively reveal that Harriet Yeo, chairman of Labour's NEC 2012-13, is quitting the party over Ed M's position on Europe

    Now supporting UKIP apparently: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11418374/Top-Labour-figure-dumps-Ed-Miliband-for-Ukip.html

    Straw in the wind, or just a one-off?
    All these lefty Kipper policies are bound to make them more attractive to lefties.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2015
    Blimey

    Margaret Thatcher was, famously, keen to restore “Victorian Values”, by which she meant not only unregulated markets but a strong sense of duty, self-help and personal responsibility

    Margaret Thatcher wanted unregulated markets? What planet have the Bishops been living on?

    And what about this utter drivel:

    Thatcher’s market revolution emphasised individualism, consumerism and the importance of the corporate sector to the extent that, far from returning to Victorian notions of social responsibility, the paradigm for all relationships became competitive individualism, consumption and the commercial contract, fragmenting social solidarity at many levels.
  • Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: BREAKING: I can exclusively reveal that Harriet Yeo, chairman of Labour's NEC 2012-13, is quitting the party over Ed M's position on Europe

    Seems a bit strange as Ed has talked very little about Europe and seems to have a similar policy to Brown
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems reduced to an asterix in Scotland in the ICM cross breaks.

    I think you mean asterisk. Sorry to be dogmatic about your research on vital statistics.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems reduced to an asterix in Scotland in the ICM cross breaks.

    I think you mean asterisk. Sorry to be dogmatic about your research on vital statistics.
    Asterisk - a mathematical symbol denoting the share of the vote required to get fewer MPs in Scotland than there are pandas.
  • Blimey

    Margaret Thatcher was, famously, keen to restore “Victorian Values”, by which she meant not only unregulated markets but a strong sense of duty, self-help and personal responsibility

    Margaret Thatcher wanted unregulated markets? What planet have the Bishops been living on?

    And what about this utter drivel:

    Thatcher’s market revolution emphasised individualism, consumerism and the importance of the corporate sector to the extent that, far from returning to Victorian notions of social responsibility, the paradigm for all relationships became competitive individualism, consumption and the commercial contract, fragmenting social solidarity at many levels.

    The whole thing is mostly drivel. They'll end up regretting it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: BREAKING: I can exclusively reveal that Harriet Yeo, chairman of Labour's NEC 2012-13, is quitting the party over Ed M's position on Europe

    Now supporting UKIP apparently: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11418374/Top-Labour-figure-dumps-Ed-Miliband-for-Ukip.html

    Straw in the wind, or just a one-off?
    Having a recent Chair of the NEC putting the boot in can't be helping Ed's Wonderful Week.

    But it won't change the mind of someone with such intellectual self-confidence. Not a chance....
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems reduced to an asterix in Scotland in the ICM cross breaks.

    Isn't Asterix a French comic strip character? Asterix the Gaul
  • I've got to page 36 and I don't think I can take any more...
  • Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems reduced to an asterix in Scotland in the ICM cross breaks.

    I think you mean asterisk. Sorry to be dogmatic about your research on vital statistics.
    I hope you're right. The idea of one tiny corner of Scotland such as Dunbartonshire East heroically holding out against the SNP horde sends shudders down my spine.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Blimey

    Margaret Thatcher was, famously, keen to restore “Victorian Values”, by which she meant not only unregulated markets but a strong sense of duty, self-help and personal responsibility

    Margaret Thatcher wanted unregulated markets? What planet have the Bishops been living on?

    And what about this utter drivel:

    Thatcher’s market revolution emphasised individualism, consumerism and the importance of the corporate sector to the extent that, far from returning to Victorian notions of social responsibility, the paradigm for all relationships became competitive individualism, consumption and the commercial contract, fragmenting social solidarity at many levels.

    The whole thing is mostly drivel. They'll end up regretting it.
    Surely you aren't suggesting it is so bad that they will..... rue the day?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems reduced to an asterix in Scotland in the ICM cross breaks.

    I think you mean asterisk. Sorry to be dogmatic about your research on vital statistics.
    Asterisk - a mathematical symbol denoting the share of the vote required to get fewer MPs in Scotland than there are pandas.
    Aren't pandas those ludicrous tiny UK police cars?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2015

    The whole thing is mostly drivel. They'll end up regretting it.

    It reads like something a first-year politics student who hasn't done any work might produce in the hope of bluffing his way through with a series of vacuous generalisations.
  • MTimT said:

    CD13 said:

    I'm not an expert on AGW, I'm comfortable sitting on the fence. But just because the majority of scientists are in favour doesn't mean it's settled.

    A famous book on the philosophy of science says that there is always a prevailing theory that dominates the field, and stays in place even when conflicting data are generated.

    A paradigm shift is necessary. But a Nobel Prize winner for Physics once said "Scientific theories don't change because old scientists change their mind; they change because old scientists die."

    AGW may grow into real science and one day be able to predict. But it may not. I 'll remain on the fence

    Absolutely. It was absolutely certain that the Earth was flat until it wasn't..
    When was that the case? Ptolemy as early as the 2nd Century AD compiled a world map, though he underestimated the circumference of the globe.

    Also Eratosthenes (as early as 3rd Cen. BC) calculated the circumference to a fair degree of accuracy.
  • I've got to page 36 and I don't think I can take any more...

    Just skip ahead to section 111: that should make you choke on your cornflakes.
  • The whole thing is mostly drivel. They'll end up regretting it.

    It reads like something a first-year politics student who hasn't done any work might produce in the hope of bluffing his way through with a series of vacuous generalisations.
    No need to get personal - that was a long time ago and I got my degree in the end.
  • I've got to page 36 and I don't think I can take any more...

    Just skip ahead to section 111: that should make you choke on your cornflakes.
    To be fair, at least it actually says something, albeit something completely wrong!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2015

    The whole thing is mostly drivel. They'll end up regretting it.

    It reads like something a first-year politics student who hasn't done any work might produce in the hope of bluffing his way through with a series of vacuous generalisations.
    No need to get personal - that was a long time ago and I got my degree in the end.
    LOL!

    Well I can't speak - there was one week when I had my weekly tutorial at 5pm and I started work at 4.35... and I managed to bluff my way through.
  • Cyclefree said:

    My only interest in weather is what it means for my garden. This year - despite a very mild winter - and planting my spring bulbs reasonably early and lots of mulching, so far only one or two brave irises have poked their heads up. A bit pathetic I must say, considering it's mid-Feb.

    They need to pull their socks up! The snowdrops have been flowering non-stop since last November.

    So either they're in a sulk or they're nice and cosy under all that earth and are behaving like teenagers refusing to get out of bed or the mice/birds/squirrels have eaten them all, the bastards.

    My next task is to find an orange tree which will survive in my sunny south-facing garden. Any tips welcome!

    Snowdrops out since New Years Eve, primroses now out. Red admiral flying around today was the first of the year, as was the bumble bee.

    We have a lovely espalier lemon tree that sits happily on a window sill, which I can heartily recommend. Lots of fruit, which we wait to fall, rather than pick - they are at their best flavour then. Just don't keep them wet - they hate that.
    Crocuses out outside the National Maritime Museum on Sunday.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    MTimT said:

    CD13 said:

    I'm not an expert on AGW, I'm comfortable sitting on the fence. But just because the majority of scientists are in favour doesn't mean it's settled.

    A famous book on the philosophy of science says that there is always a prevailing theory that dominates the field, and stays in place even when conflicting data are generated.

    A paradigm shift is necessary. But a Nobel Prize winner for Physics once said "Scientific theories don't change because old scientists change their mind; they change because old scientists die."

    AGW may grow into real science and one day be able to predict. But it may not. I 'll remain on the fence

    Absolutely. It was absolutely certain that the Earth was flat until it wasn't..
    When was that the case? Ptolemy as early as the 2nd Century AD compiled a world map, though he underestimated the circumference of the globe.

    Also Eratosthenes (as early as 3rd Cen. BC) calculated the circumference to a fair degree of accuracy.
    Eratosthenes as immortalized by Carl Sagan in Cosmos (and Samsung ads for their curved screen TV).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @mlpfoster: Ukip spokesman says former Labour NEC chair Harriet Yeo has not joined the party but is giving it her "wholehearted support" in May
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems reduced to an asterix in Scotland in the ICM cross breaks.

    I think you mean asterisk. Sorry to be dogmatic about your research on vital statistics.
    Asterisk - a mathematical symbol denoting the share of the vote required to get fewer MPs in Scotland than there are pandas.
    Aren't pandas those ludicrous tiny UK police cars?
    I think it is a generic term for any normal sized police car, although I could be mistaken.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems reduced to an asterix in Scotland in the ICM cross breaks.

    I think you mean asterisk. Sorry to be dogmatic about your research on vital statistics.
    Asterisk - a mathematical symbol denoting the share of the vote required to get fewer MPs in Scotland than there are pandas.
    Aren't pandas those ludicrous tiny UK police cars?
    I think it is a generic term for any normal sized police car, although I could be mistaken.
    Is a Vauxhall Astra a 'normal sized' police car?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Re the AGW debate..and totally out of curiosity.How many small Islands have been overwhelmed..worldwide... and how many Polar bears are there..at one time we were told they would very soon be extinct... these were at one time the great slogan items for the AGW supporters.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    CD13 said:

    I'm not an expert on AGW, I'm comfortable sitting on the fence. But just because the majority of scientists are in favour doesn't mean it's settled.

    A famous book on the philosophy of science says that there is always a prevailing theory that dominates the field, and stays in place even when conflicting data are generated.

    A paradigm shift is necessary. But a Nobel Prize winner for Physics once said "Scientific theories don't change because old scientists change their mind; they change because old scientists die."

    AGW may grow into real science and one day be able to predict. But it may not. I 'll remain on the fence

    AGW isn't an can never be a theory with predictive power in your sense because of its lack of generality: it is only about what this human activity is doing to this planet, here and now. You couldn't usefully extrapolate from it about anything else. So yes its jolly warm. whoopee. The stock market is sometimes jolly high. whoopee. In neither case does that state of affairs give us much of a clue as to what happens next. The same is true of absolutely every complex system that has ever existed.

    One of the local warmist dweebs told us the other day that science establishes "the truth" (and who is this Popper guy anyway?) As Goethe I think said, against stupidity the gods themselves struggle in vain.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems reduced to an asterix in Scotland in the ICM cross breaks.

    I think you mean asterisk. Sorry to be dogmatic about your research on vital statistics.
    Asterisk - a mathematical symbol denoting the share of the vote required to get fewer MPs in Scotland than there are pandas.
    Aren't pandas those ludicrous tiny UK police cars?
    I think it is a generic term for any normal sized police car, although I could be mistaken.
    You may be right -

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panda_car
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited February 2015
    Cyclefree said:

    My only interest in weather is what it means for my garden. This year - despite a very mild winter - and planting my spring bulbs reasonably early and lots of mulching, so far only one or two brave irises have poked their heads up. A bit pathetic I must say, considering it's mid-Feb.

    They need to pull their socks up! The snowdrops have been flowering non-stop since last November.

    So either they're in a sulk or they're nice and cosy under all that earth and are behaving like teenagers refusing to get out of bed or the mice/birds/squirrels have eaten them all, the bastards.

    My next task is to find an orange tree which will survive in my sunny south-facing garden. Any tips welcome!

    Where do you live Cyclefree? Winter 14/15 is likely to be average or only slightly milder than average for the UK as a whole - however Scotland has been slightly colder than average and it has been milder than average in the South.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited February 2015

    and how many Polar bears are there..at one time we were told they would very soon be extinct...

    You misunderstood. It was Scottish Tory MPs we warned would soon become extinct due to climate change. Though I think we got them confused with Pandas.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Re the AGW debate..and totally out of curiosity.How many small Islands have been overwhelmed..worldwide... and how many Polar bears are there..at one time we were told they would very soon be extinct... these were at one time the great slogan items for the AGW supporters.

    Yes, the world-ending predictions of 15-20 years ago look increasingly silly.
  • Scott_P said:

    @mlpfoster: Ukip spokesman says former Labour NEC chair Harriet Yeo has not joined the party but is giving it her "wholehearted support" in May

    Harriet Yeo only got 11% of the vote when she stood for PCC in Kent:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_and_Wales_police_and_crime_commissioner_elections,_2012#Kent_Police
  • Mr. X, as Professor Jones taught us, if you want truth, go to the philosophy class.
  • The whole thing is mostly drivel. They'll end up regretting it.

    It reads like something a first-year politics student who hasn't done any work might produce in the hope of bluffing his way through with a series of vacuous generalisations.
    I can't believe they are sending out a 50 page letter without even any sort of conclusion or executive summary. I'm interested to know what they points are but am not reading all that.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Neil said:

    and how many Polar bears are there..at one time we were told they would very soon be extinct...

    You misunderstood. It was Scottish Tory MPs we warned would soon become extinct due to climate change. Though I think we got them confused with Pandas.
    The bear or the police car?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,582
    Unless Cameron's brand was miles away above the Labour brand, the answer is obviously that the Labour brand will win. People vote for parties, and only rarely for candidates, much as we might wish it were otherwise. Even if they like Cameron more, he cannot get away from the fact of his own party, so his benefit from his own rating is reduced.

    I am astounded the Labour brand is not doing worse, but that's people for you.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Tim_B said:

    Re the AGW debate..and totally out of curiosity.How many small Islands have been overwhelmed..worldwide... and how many Polar bears are there..at one time we were told they would very soon be extinct... these were at one time the great slogan items for the AGW supporters.

    Yes, the world-ending predictions of 15-20 years ago look increasingly silly.
    As silly as regularly diverting pbc threads into precisely the same dead end debate with observations about the weather in a corner of the United States?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems reduced to an asterix in Scotland in the ICM cross breaks.

    I think you mean asterisk. Sorry to be dogmatic about your research on vital statistics.
    Asterisk - a mathematical symbol denoting the share of the vote required to get fewer MPs in Scotland than there are pandas.
    Aren't pandas those ludicrous tiny UK police cars?
    I think it is a generic term for any normal sized police car, although I could be mistaken.
    Is a Vauxhall Astra a 'normal sized' police car?
    It's big enough ;)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited February 2015
    Oborne resigns from the Telegraph.

    Something about a Muslim accounts at HSBC story being quashed by the Barclays as they give good adverts.

  • SunnyJim said:


    Welcome aboard. Do you bet? Occasionally this site dedicates itself to discussion of wagers and so forth.

    Thanks.

    I'm a regular on Betfair but keep it to trading/arbing on horses and the golf.

    I've learnt that betting with anything other than your head is a route to the poor house - which rules out politics.
    I rarely bet on Chelsea for the same reasons, also I can remember us losing at home to the likes of Scarborough so the thought of being favourites against Barcelona I find very odd.

    Though one very good bet is in any big game Chelsea are involved in back Ivanovic and Ramires to get booked if they are starting.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Neil said:

    Tim_B said:

    Re the AGW debate..and totally out of curiosity.How many small Islands have been overwhelmed..worldwide... and how many Polar bears are there..at one time we were told they would very soon be extinct... these were at one time the great slogan items for the AGW supporters.

    Yes, the world-ending predictions of 15-20 years ago look increasingly silly.
    As silly as regularly diverting pbc threads into precisely the same dead end debate with observations about the weather in a corner of the United States?

    I'll let you be the judge
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited February 2015
  • Tim_B said:

    Re the AGW debate..and totally out of curiosity.How many small Islands have been overwhelmed..worldwide... and how many Polar bears are there..at one time we were told they would very soon be extinct... these were at one time the great slogan items for the AGW supporters.

    Yes, the world-ending predictions of 15-20 years ago look increasingly silly.
    Certainly looks cold in Fortitude!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    Apparently she has not defected, but will be giving UKIP her full support (or words to that effect).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    TGOHF said:

    Oborne resigns from the Telegraph.

    Something about a Muslim accounts at HSBC story being quashed by the Barclays as they give good adverts.

    I can't seem to access the site he posted a link to on his Twitter. Any luck on your end?
  • Neil said:

    Tim_B said:

    Re the AGW debate..and totally out of curiosity.How many small Islands have been overwhelmed..worldwide... and how many Polar bears are there..at one time we were told they would very soon be extinct... these were at one time the great slogan items for the AGW supporters.

    Yes, the world-ending predictions of 15-20 years ago look increasingly silly.
    As silly as regularly diverting pbc threads into precisely the same dead end debate with observations about the weather in a corner of the United States?

    Observations trump predictions?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Ed will never be PM if leading lights like Harriet Yeo are defecting to UKIP.

    This is a disaster for EICIPM
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oborne resigns from the Telegraph.

    Something about a Muslim accounts at HSBC story being quashed by the Barclays as they give good adverts.

    I can't seem to access the site he posted a link to on his Twitter. Any luck on your end?
    Crashed I think

    Guido has it
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Apparently she has not defected, but will be giving UKIP her full support (or words to that effect).
    How does that work? Being a member of one party but supporting another..
  • Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Apparently she has not defected, but will be giving UKIP her full support (or words to that effect).
    How does that work? Being a member of one party but supporting another..
    She has resigned from Labour according to Torygraph.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    Apparently she has not defected, but will be giving UKIP her full support (or words to that effect).
    How does that work? Being a member of one party but supporting another..
    Well she is a leftie, contradictions come as second nature. ;)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Todays BJESUS (Before the terrible YEO news)

    17.2.15 LAB 295 (295) CON 268(268) LD 29(29) UKIP 2(2) Others 56(56) (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 79 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited February 2015
    RobD said:

    Apparently she has not defected, but will be giving UKIP her full support (or words to that effect).
    Is she Angharad Yeo's mum?

    EDIT
    Yes.
    http://www.ashfordherald.co.uk/Standing-beliefs/story-18211045-detail/story.html

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Updated this weeks BJESUS (After terrible YEO news)

    17.2.15 LAB 295 (295) CON 268(268) LD 29(29) UKIP 2(2) Others 56(56) (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 79 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oborne resigns from the Telegraph.

    Something about a Muslim accounts at HSBC story being quashed by the Barclays as they give good adverts.

    I can't seem to access the site he posted a link to on his Twitter. Any luck on your end?
    Crashed I think

    Guido has it
    The Telegraph went downhill years ago. How anyone of sound mind can write for them is a complete mystery.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Todays BJESUS (Before the terrible YEO news)

    17.2.15 LAB 295 (295) CON 268(268) LD 29(29) UKIP 2(2) Others 56(56) (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 79 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    A graph of the BJESUS vs time might be instructive - remember the days of Labour on 330+ ?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oborne resigns from the Telegraph.

    Something about a Muslim accounts at HSBC story being quashed by the Barclays as they give good adverts.

    I can't seem to access the site he posted a link to on his Twitter. Any luck on your end?
    Crashed I think

    Guido has it
    Thanks, a depressing read.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited February 2015
    @TGOHF
    How long was Ozzie with them?
    Edit, scratch that it was Obi wan
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oborne resigns from the Telegraph.

    Something about a Muslim accounts at HSBC story being quashed by the Barclays as they give good adverts.

    I can't seem to access the site he posted a link to on his Twitter. Any luck on your end?
    Crashed I think

    Guido has it
    The Telegraph went downhill years ago. How anyone of sound mind can write for them is a complete mystery.
    The business section I enjoy - some of the "lifestyle" articles wouldn't be out of place in the Gran.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited February 2015

    Todays BJESUS (Before the terrible YEO news)

    17.2.15 LAB 295 (295) CON 268(268) LD 29(29) UKIP 2(2) Others 56(56) (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 79 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    LOL - love it John!

    Edit: I was meant to quote the "After the terrible YEO news"...
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Smarmeron said:

    @TGOHF
    How long was Ozzie with them?
    Edit, scratch that it was Obi wan

    Surely 'Obbie'?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Oborne resigns from the Telegraph.

    Something about a Muslim accounts at HSBC story being quashed by the Barclays as they give good adverts.

    I can't seem to access the site he posted a link to on his Twitter. Any luck on your end?
    Crashed I think

    Guido has it
    The Telegraph went downhill years ago. How anyone of sound mind can write for them is a complete mystery.
    The business section I enjoy - some of the "lifestyle" articles wouldn't be out of place in the Gran.
    It's terrible - the Barclay Brothers are the Anti-Midas of Fleet Street proprietors.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TGOHF
    Oboe?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    antifrank said:

    Scott_P said:

    @IsabelOakeshott: BREAKING: I can exclusively reveal that Harriet Yeo, chairman of Labour's NEC 2012-13, is quitting the party over Ed M's position on Europe

    Now supporting UKIP apparently: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11418374/Top-Labour-figure-dumps-Ed-Miliband-for-Ukip.html

    Straw in the wind, or just a one-off?
    You've missed the most important question. Who on earth is she?
    May be some implications for Labour--->UKIP in Kent?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    Lib Dems reduced to an asterix in Scotland in the ICM cross breaks.

    I think you mean asterisk. Sorry to be dogmatic about your research on vital statistics.
    smirk :)
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    edited February 2015

    Neil said:

    Tim_B said:

    Re the AGW debate..and totally out of curiosity.How many small Islands have been overwhelmed..worldwide... and how many Polar bears are there..at one time we were told they would very soon be extinct... these were at one time the great slogan items for the AGW supporters.

    Yes, the world-ending predictions of 15-20 years ago look increasingly silly.
    As silly as regularly diverting pbc threads into precisely the same dead end debate with observations about the weather in a corner of the United States?

    Observations trump predictions?
    Absolutely Sunil...

    Record temperature highs outnumber record lows 3:1 from across the globe.

  • India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to protect all religious groups after a string of attacks on churches in Delhi.

    Addressing a Christian audience in the capital, he called on all religious groups to show restraint and respect.

    Since December, five churches have been attacked, but this is the first time Mr Modi has commented on the issue.

    Critics say his Hindu nationalist BJP government is not doing enough to stop Hindu zealots targeting minorities.


    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-31499978
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (EICIPM)
    24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (EICIPM)
    1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (EICIPM)
    8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (EICIPM)
    15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (EICIPM)
    22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (EICIPM)
    29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (EICIPM)
    5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (EICIPM)
    12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (EICIPM)
    18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 EICIPM
    26.8.14 LAB 333(331) CON 259(261)LD(34)UKIP 0(0) Others 24 EICIPM
    2.9.14 LAB331(333) CON261(259) LD24(34) Others24 (24) EICIPM
    9.9.14 LAB332(331) CON260(261) LD34(34) Others24 (24) EICIPM
    16.9.14 LAB 331(332) CON 262(260) LD 33(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 EICIPM
    23.9.14 LAB 334 (331) CON 260(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (EICIPM)
    30.9.14 LAB 334 (334) CON 260(260) LD 32(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (EICPM)
    7.10.14 LAB 325 (334) CON 269(260) LD 31(32) UKIP 1(0) Others 24 (EICIPM)
    14.10.14 LAB 328 (325) CON 264(269) LD 33(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (EICIPM)
    21.10.14 LAB 327 (328) CON 265(264) LD 33(33) UKIP 1(1) Others 24 (EICPM)
    28.10.14 LAB 322 (327) CON 269(265) LD 33(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 24 (EICIPM)
    4.11.14 LAB 320 (322) CON 268(269) LD 31(33) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (EICIPM)
    11.11.14 LAB 320 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (EICIPM)
    18.11.14 LAB 319 (320) CON 268(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 30(29) (EICIPM)
    25.11.14 LAB 319 (319) CON 267(268) LD 31(31) UKIP 2(2) Others 31(30) (EICIPM)
    2.12.14 LAB 320 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(2) Others 31(31) (EICIPM)
    9.12.14 LAB 319 (320) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 32(31) (EICIPM)
    16.12.14 LAB 318 (319) CON 267(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 33(32) (EICIPM)
    23.12.14 LAB 320 (318) CON 263(267) LD 31(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 35(33) (EICIPM)
    5.1.15 LAB 322 (320) CON 259(263) LD 32(31) UKIP 1(1) Others 36(35) (EICIPM)
    12.1.15 LAB 318 (322) CON 262(259) LD 33(32) UKIP 1(1) Others 36(36) (EICIPM)
    19.1.15 LAB 316 (318) CON 264(262) LD 32(33) UKIP 2(1) Others 36(36) (EICIPM)
    26.1.15 LAB 310 (316) CON 269(264) LD 31(32) UKIP 2(2) Others 38(36) (EICIPM)
    3.2.15 LAB 313 (310) CON 267(269) LD29(31) UKIP2(2) Others39(38) EICIPM
    10.2.15 LAB 295 (313) CON 268(267) LD 29(29) UKIP 2(2) Others 56(39) (EICIPM)
    17.2.15 LAB 295 (295) CON 268(268) LD 29(29) UKIP 2(2) Others 56(56) (EICIPM)

  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited February 2015
    Oborne statement. Made me think of Geoffery Howe's resignation speech to the commons.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TGOHF said:

    Todays BJESUS (Before the terrible YEO news)

    17.2.15 LAB 295 (295) CON 268(268) LD 29(29) UKIP 2(2) Others 56(56) (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last BJESUS in brackets Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 79 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    A graph of the BJESUS vs time might be instructive - remember the days of Labour on 330+ ?

    LAB down by 35 in last 8 month SNP up 32 Con up 5 LD down 4 UKIP up 2
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    edited February 2015
    murali_s said:

    Neil said:

    Tim_B said:

    Re the AGW debate..and totally out of curiosity.How many small Islands have been overwhelmed..worldwide... and how many Polar bears are there..at one time we were told they would very soon be extinct... these were at one time the great slogan items for the AGW supporters.

    Yes, the world-ending predictions of 15-20 years ago look increasingly silly.
    As silly as regularly diverting pbc threads into precisely the same dead end debate with observations about the weather in a corner of the United States?

    Observations trump predictions?
    Absolutely Sunil...

    Record temperature highs outnumber record lows 3:1 from across the globe.
    Most of which seem to be estimated and the rest apparently adjusted.

    http://jamesdelingpole.com/2015/01/forget-climategate-this-global-warming-scandal-is-much-bigger/
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    murali_s said:

    Neil said:

    Tim_B said:

    Re the AGW debate..and totally out of curiosity.How many small Islands have been overwhelmed..worldwide... and how many Polar bears are there..at one time we were told they would very soon be extinct... these were at one time the great slogan items for the AGW supporters.

    Yes, the world-ending predictions of 15-20 years ago look increasingly silly.
    As silly as regularly diverting pbc threads into precisely the same dead end debate with observations about the weather in a corner of the United States?

    Observations trump predictions?
    Absolutely Sunil...

    Record temperature highs outnumber record lows 3:1 from across the globe.
    But what does that prove? If you are in a natural warming cycle, vs a man-made warming cycle, the same would be true. The key is what period do the records cover and how should that be seen within weather cycles? Which weather cycle? etc...

    The fact is that there is so much we cannot know with current data about the weather. in that context, I think it makes sense to moderate activities that we suspect might have deleterious effects, rather than take drastic action or complete inaction.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    New thread folks!
This discussion has been closed.