@Purseybear Because normally any "events" take a few days to show in the polling, and while they might merely bounce about the present stalemate, some might point to how this weeks games have gone down with the voters (supplementaries)
January will be the crossover month....February the pulling away month......March will see healthy Tory leads.
Labour 3% in front
Super Dave, the political masterclass and supremo with three leads out of 21. Ed is crap only has 15
The polling appears to be going the wrong way for the Tories.
Ed is great when he has something to attack. It's his defensive skills that pose a problem. Can he keep on the attack until the campaign proper begins?
It looks like the swingback the PB Hodges so often mention, is going the other way :-)
Off topic, I've finally backed England to win the cricket world cup at 10/1
I know, we're as useful as a condom with holes in both ends,
But look at the format of the tournament. If we beat Scotland and Afghanistan in the group stages, we're through to Quarters (I know we lost to Ireland and Bangladesh last time)
Then in the quarters, we'll probably end up facing Saffers, Pakistan, India or West Indies, we should be able to defeat the latter three, and we all know the Saffers are chokers.
Then we're in the semis, and we're one innings of a lifetime from Buttler or Morgan away from the final.
So has all the hallmarks of a decent trading bet.
Yeah, reasonable bet given the draw (and the fact that the QF is in Melbourne which should suit). Ed Hawkins has tipped it too. I'm being greedy and waiting for us to lose to Australia first.
Oooh, that's a good point.
That must be factored in, but if we do well against the Aussies then the price may shorten.
I just can't see it – they have the hex over us at the moment. We should have beaten them last time but they still won decisively.
Off topic, I've finally backed England to win the cricket world cup at 10/1
I know, we're as useful as a condom with holes in both ends,
But look at the format of the tournament. If we beat Scotland and Afghanistan in the group stages, we're through to Quarters (I know we lost to Ireland and Bangladesh last time)
Then in the quarters, we'll probably end up facing Saffers, Pakistan, India or West Indies, we should be able to defeat the latter three, and we all know the Saffers are chokers.
Then we're in the semis, and we're one innings of a lifetime from Buttler or Morgan away from the final.
So has all the hallmarks of a decent trading bet.
Good thinking. I might have a tickle. Let me think about it.
Generally speaking, the main issue we have at the moment is the Captain's Curse: Morgan is just a dud with the bat at the moment. That said he was in poor form before being handed the captaincy.
I've bought Kane Williamson series runs at 374, he has been in blistering form and has Scotland and Afghanistan in his group, looks a great bet to me.
Bought Buttler performance tomorrow on the basis he will definitely get a bat!
Ben Stokes should be going in at six tomorrow
Kane Williamson's last 16 scores are as follows (most recent first): 112, 54, 97, 26, 103, 15, 97, 123, 46, 70, 10, 88, 60, 65, 77 and 71.
Calls to burn down UKIP shop by members of group run by Green PPC & Labour Councillor A Facebook group run by a Green Parliamentary Candidate, a Welsh Scottish Nationalist and a Labour councillor has members who advocated burning down the UKIP shop in Merthyr Tydfil.
Off topic, I've finally backed England to win the cricket world cup at 10/1
I know, we're as useful as a condom with holes in both ends,
But look at the format of the tournament. If we beat Scotland and Afghanistan in the group stages, we're through to Quarters (I know we lost to Ireland and Bangladesh last time)
Then in the quarters, we'll probably end up facing Saffers, Pakistan, India or West Indies, we should be able to defeat the latter three, and we all know the Saffers are chokers.
Then we're in the semis, and we're one innings of a lifetime from Buttler or Morgan away from the final.
So has all the hallmarks of a decent trading bet.
Yeah, reasonable bet given the draw (and the fact that the QF is in Melbourne which should suit). Ed Hawkins has tipped it too. I'm being greedy and waiting for us to lose to Australia first.
Oooh, that's a good point.
That must be factored in, but if we do well against the Aussies then the price may shorten.
I just can't see it – they have the hex over us at the moment. We should have beaten them last time but they still won decisively.
Mail tipping petrol onto the flames. Changed will and Milibands...
not sure how far it will change votes.
One thing is for certain, the BBC wont be half as interested as if it was printed in the Guardian. A load of their journo's have been openly speculating on twitter if Mail / Sun journos get extra if they can dig up dirt on BBC / BBC employees.
Had a drink with a friend earlier this evening. He's quite a character, with some remarkable contacts. Three years ago, he was a junkie living on Eiliean Sionnach, the beautiful remote Scottish island which is the location for S K Tremayne's amazing, top ten bestselling thriller, The Ice Twins.
Anyhow, I digress. My friend has moved up in the world since his junkie days, and he casually let slip that he'd recently spend a weekend at Chequers. His posh GF is, apparently, an old chum of Cammo's.
Obv I asked my fairly apolitical friend his opinion of Cameron. How many of us have spent an entire weekend with the PM? He said that when he was in Chequers he tried to work out Cameron, but... he just couldn't. DC was, apparently, a very good host, and very friendly to all, but it was impossible to discern his true character, good or bad. The PR veneer was unbreakable, even in such a domestic setting. Or maybe there IS no *real* Cameron. WYSIWYG
Mypal also confirmed my own opinion (based on one meeting) that Sam Cam is seriously hot, in person.
She is hot. Labour voter in the past. Your analysis about Dave is correct – he is known for being impenetrable in person, a useful skill in politics – to some extent.
@Scott_P Hardly surprising given what T.R. is meant to have overheard, I wonder if the reporter made them aware of the clarification, or asked them about the original?
Off topic, I've finally backed England to win the cricket world cup at 10/1
I know, we're as useful as a condom with holes in both ends,
But look at the format of the tournament. If we beat Scotland and Afghanistan in the group stages, we're through to Quarters (I know we lost to Ireland and Bangladesh last time)
Then in the quarters, we'll probably end up facing Saffers, Pakistan, India or West Indies, we should be able to defeat the latter three, and we all know the Saffers are chokers.
Then we're in the semis, and we're one innings of a lifetime from Buttler or Morgan away from the final.
So has all the hallmarks of a decent trading bet.
Good thinking. I might have a tickle. Let me think about it.
Generally speaking, the main issue we have at the moment is the Captain's Curse: Morgan is just a dud with the bat at the moment. That said he was in poor form before being handed the captaincy.
I've bought Kane Williamson series runs at 374, he has been in blistering form and has Scotland and Afghanistan in his group, looks a great bet to me.
Bought Buttler performance tomorrow on the basis he will definitely get a bat!
Ben Stokes should be going in at six tomorrow
Nigel – where did you find the top run scorer bet?
Off topic, I've finally backed England to win the cricket world cup at 10/1
I know, we're as useful as a condom with holes in both ends,
But look at the format of the tournament. If we beat Scotland and Afghanistan in the group stages, we're through to Quarters (I know we lost to Ireland and Bangladesh last time)
Then in the quarters, we'll probably end up facing Saffers, Pakistan, India or West Indies, we should be able to defeat the latter three, and we all know the Saffers are chokers.
Then we're in the semis, and we're one innings of a lifetime from Buttler or Morgan away from the final.
So has all the hallmarks of a decent trading bet.
Yeah, reasonable bet given the draw (and the fact that the QF is in Melbourne which should suit). Ed Hawkins has tipped it too. I'm being greedy and waiting for us to lose to Australia first.
Oooh, that's a good point.
That must be factored in, but if we do well against the Aussies then the price may shorten.
I just can't see it – they have the hex over us at the moment. We should have beaten them last time but they still won decisively.
I'd love to see but I fear you are correct.
I'll be up around 6am to watch – but they are very, very strong (I actually think a better ODI side without Clarke – even though he remains the best Test batsman I have ever seen at a live Test)
Any PB Tory supporters getting worried yet or still piling on Cameron at 1.68
Most Seats 1.78 obviously a far better bet, it's the reverse of the other scenario. I'm +Con Most Seats and +EMPM for what is effectively an arb with a middle.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a three-point lead: CON 31, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 15, GRN 7
Well I got the Greens right
This is looking bad for the Tories now. A definite trend in favour of Labour. Not huge, but enough to ensure EICIPM, even if it is NOM.
I suspect two causes; the Green surge has peaked, and the the Scots are having second thoughts about giving the Nats 40 seats.
The immediate effect must surely be a swift Cameron agreement to the TV debates. Cameron will soon be the underdog. And underdogs ALWAYS want to debate: because underdogs need a game changer.
It's a 1% swing off the back of some pretty poor headlines about tax. I don't foresee any immediate effects. EM is campaigning like the underdog - Ed v Goliath.
It will be effective for a while but psychologically I'm not sure framing yourself as such is a great idea - I reckon the people would have voted for Goliath. Philistines.
Any PB Tory supporters getting worried yet or still piling on Cameron at 1.68
Most Seats 1.78 obviously a far better bet, it's the reverse of the other scenario. I'm +Con Most Seats and +EMPM for what is effectively an arb with a middle.
Off topic, I've finally backed England to win the cricket world cup at 10/1
I know, we're as useful as a condom with holes in both ends,
But look at the format of the tournament. If we beat Scotland and Afghanistan in the group stages, we're through to Quarters (I know we lost to Ireland and Bangladesh last time)
Then in the quarters, we'll probably end up facing Saffers, Pakistan, India or West Indies, we should be able to defeat the latter three, and we all know the Saffers are chokers.
Then we're in the semis, and we're one innings of a lifetime from Buttler or Morgan away from the final.
So has all the hallmarks of a decent trading bet.
Yeah, reasonable bet given the draw (and the fact that the QF is in Melbourne which should suit). Ed Hawkins has tipped it too. I'm being greedy and waiting for us to lose to Australia first.
Oooh, that's a good point.
That must be factored in, but if we do well against the Aussies then the price may shorten.
I just can't see it – they have the hex over us at the moment. We should have beaten them last time but they still won decisively.
I'd love to see but I fear you are correct.
I'll be up around 6am to watch – but they are very, very strong (I actually think a better ODI side without Clarke – even though he remains the best Test batsman I have ever seen at a live Test)
I agree with you, and with Johnson back they could skittle everyone
Any PB Tory supporters getting worried yet or still piling on Cameron at 1.68
Most Seats 1.78 obviously a far better bet, it's the reverse of the other scenario. I'm +Con Most Seats and +EMPM for what is effectively an arb with a middle.
I still think 1.78 is still poor value IMO
Has to be a coin flip at the very best i reckon
Maybe heart over head on both our parts?
You said it was better than a coin flip when it was evens :-D
Like I say, back both, and hope for Con 280 Lab 275
I thought 'Red Ed' had fallen out of fashion in the last couple of years - is the moniker making a comeback? Maybe that will raise the Tory polling ceiling and lower the Labour polling floor, as nothing else is achieving that.
So when is the Labour majority price going to crash?
Probably in the last 2 weeks of the campaign, the last tory hope is the debates if they happen and if Farage is not on them.
I think it will be sooner. The current prices are ridiculous and assume a whole series of positive events and trends for the tories for which there is currently no evidence. I am not saying the Tories can't win, just that it is getting increasingly unlikely and the chances of Labour getting a majority are in my opinion more like 3/1 than 20/1.
Any PB Tory supporters getting worried yet or still piling on Cameron at 1.68
Most Seats 1.78 obviously a far better bet, it's the reverse of the other scenario. I'm +Con Most Seats and +EMPM for what is effectively an arb with a middle.
I still think 1.78 is still poor value IMO
Has to be a coin flip at the very best i reckon
Maybe heart over head on both our parts?
You said it was better than a coin flip when it was evens :-D
Like I say, back both, and hope for Con 280 Lab 275
Sounds sensible but if Lab most seats and EICIPM you win I win big.
Admittedly if CON most seats and Ed not PM I lose big (but at least mrs BJ divorces me when she finds out so not all bad!!!)
So when is the Labour majority price going to crash?
Probably in the last 2 weeks of the campaign, the last tory hope is the debates if they happen and if Farage is not on them.
I think it will be sooner. The current prices are ridiculous and assume a whole series of positive events and trends for the tories for which there is currently no evidence. I am not saying the Tories can't win, just that it is getting increasingly unlikely and the chances of Labour getting a majority are in my opinion more like 3/1 than 20/1.
The betting is still dominated by Tory partisan bettors, so it will depend until the general public puts a bet on the election outcome.
"Ed are you proposing a tax on rich people that you yourself would have to pay?"
"Yes, I think its only right that everyone who is fortunate in society pays their fair way, If Prime Minister I will be raising my own tax bill to help others. Now - I would like to ask David Cameron if he benefited himself from cutting the 50p tax rate"
I wish he had had the courage of his convictions to make clear that the NHS is a third rate health system and that we should be aspiring to the sort of health service they have in some of our European neighbouring countries rather than one that is only kept of the bottom of the pile for failing to keep people alive by the US.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a three-point lead: CON 31, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 15, GRN 7
Well I got the Greens right
This is looking bad for the Tories now. A definite trend in favour of Labour. Not huge, but enough to ensure EICIPM, even if it is NOM.
I suspect two causes; the Green surge has peaked, and the the Scots are having second thoughts about giving the Nats 40 seats.
The immediate effect must surely be a swift Cameron agreement to the TV debates. Cameron will soon be the underdog. And underdogs ALWAYS want to debate: because underdogs need a game changer.
It's a 1% swing off the back of some pretty poor headlines about tax. I don't foresee any immediate effects. EM is campaigning like the underdog - Ed v Goliath.
It will be effective for a while but psychologically I'm not sure framing yourself as such is a great idea - I reckon the people would have voted for Goliath. Philistines.
I would be inclined to agree. Ed is very strong when on the attack – but he can't possibly be on the front foot foot for another 12 weeks. His defensive work is the problem.
Ancient story that Miliband has stupidly revived by obsessing about tax dodgers. The Milibands themselves dodged tax. Quite legally, of course, but they nonetheless cleverly arranged their affairs so that the inherited millions of property wealth would deftly swerve the taxman's rugby tackle.
I doubt any Tory will attack him for it, as they are all doing the same. But the papers have no such qualms, apart from the Guardian, which hides its profits in the Caymans.
The thing is, the BBC, with all their tax avoiders, nor Sky, will go near this story. These days, the Daily Mail splashing something nasty about Ed is about as effectively as the Mirror saying something nasty about Cameron.
Like phone hacking, tax efficiency planning amongst MP, media, etc is widespread (Fink is right about about that), and anybody who pops their head above the waterline is just asking for getting bashed (however hypocritical the attack my be).
Fink has stood up to the claims...result, he is still tarred. Lord Paul doesn't say a word, the public are none the wiser.
@SeanT Oh how things change. From your perspective now, the thing that is a political weight for Ed Miliband is his brother David, who is not even an MP anymore. I though the position was that the popular David Miliband was supposed to save the Labour party from unpopular Ed circa 2011.
Strange decision to run a story on the front page of the Mail about Miliband's tax affairs. It looks so contrived its unlikely to be believed. First rule of advertising is preach to the semi converted.
They'd have done better if they'd run it in a few weeks when it might have looked like something had come to light. This is self evidently just doing what the Mail does...'
But then why try so hard all this time? I don't begrudge the average person having a chuckle at a government. Hell knows I do about the Lib Dems.
I didn't spend all my time on a website using other peoples words to desperately ramp to - and lets be honest here - no more than 60 aging men and a handful of women,
So when is the Labour majority price going to crash?
We are still a long way from that David. Ed is brilliant when on the attack but very underwhelming in defence. He will have to defend again at some stage.
I see the if you have a pension you're avoiding tax brigade have been out in force. What palpable rubbish. Ordinary people have pensions not as some tax dodge but because they want something to live on when they retire.
“The best coalitions are where the two parties challenge each other to rise to even greater heights,” said Mr Browne. The worst ones are those that resort to a “lowest common denominator” as the parties block each other’s policies. This Coalition started in the first category but is ending in the second, and he regrets that. “I embody the spirit that Nick Clegg brought to government for the first two years of this Parliament – to a greater degree than he now does.”
Describing the change of strategy as “a really serious mistake”, Mr Browne said: “As a result, the party has remained surprisingly becalmed given the terrible election results and opinion polls. But we have not made a compelling case to the country. Instead, we have chosen to try and feel good about ourselves.”
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a three-point lead: CON 31, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 15, GRN 7
Well I got the Greens right
This is looking bad for the Tories now. A definite trend in favour of Labour. Not huge, but enough to ensure EICIPM, even if it is NOM.
I suspect two causes; the Green surge has peaked, and the the Scots are having second thoughts about giving the Nats 40 seats.
The immediate effect must surely be a swift Cameron agreement to the TV debates. Cameron will soon be the underdog. And underdogs ALWAYS want to debate: because underdogs need a game changer.
It's a 1% swing off the back of some pretty poor headlines about tax. I don't foresee any immediate effects. EM is campaigning like the underdog - Ed v Goliath.
It will be effective for a while but psychologically I'm not sure framing yourself as such is a great idea - I reckon the people would have voted for Goliath. Philistines.
I would be inclined to agree. Ed is very strong when on the attack – but he can't possibly be on the front foot foot for another 12 weeks. He's defensive work is the problem.
He seems quite slippery to me - he barely seems to get any negative connection from being at the heart of the last government as an adviser then a minister for instance.
So when is the Labour majority price going to crash?
Probably in the last 2 weeks of the campaign, the last tory hope is the debates if they happen and if Farage is not on them.
I think it will be sooner. The current prices are ridiculous and assume a whole series of positive events and trends for the tories for which there is currently no evidence. I am not saying the Tories can't win, just that it is getting increasingly unlikely and the chances of Labour getting a majority are in my opinion more like 3/1 than 20/1.
Much as my wallet would like that to be true, and I do think Lab are too long on most bets, I don't think we can be so bullish. The past few months have been a consistent pattern of Labour holding steady for periods, their victory looking more and more inevitable, and then sudden falls in their support over a week or so. Every time the Tories look like they are going to make serious progress (like a fortnight ago when they had various pollsters crossover) they lose steam just when they are about to pull away. And every time Labour look like they've finally clinched it, as they do now, they begin to slip precipitously.
The result of the trend overall? Look at the Wiki chart. Lab lead declining at almost the perfect rate to make most seats a toss-up.
Off topic, I've finally backed England to win the cricket world cup at 10/1
I know, we're as useful as a condom with holes in both ends,
But look at the format of the tournament. If we beat Scotland and Afghanistan in the group stages, we're through to Quarters (I know we lost to Ireland and Bangladesh last time)
Then in the quarters, we'll probably end up facing Saffers, Pakistan, India or West Indies, we should be able to defeat the latter three, and we all know the Saffers are chokers.
Then we're in the semis, and we're one innings of a lifetime from Buttler or Morgan away from the final.
So has all the hallmarks of a decent trading bet.
Yeah, reasonable bet given the draw (and the fact that the QF is in Melbourne which should suit). Ed Hawkins has tipped it too. I'm being greedy and waiting for us to lose to Australia first.
Oooh, that's a good point.
That must be factored in, but if we do well against the Aussies then the price may shorten.
I just can't see it – they have the hex over us at the moment. We should have beaten them last time but they still won decisively.
I'd love to see but I fear you are correct.
I'll be up around 6am to watch – but they are very, very strong (I actually think a better ODI side without Clarke – even though he remains the best Test batsman I have ever seen at a live Test)
I agree with you, and with Johnson back they could skittle everyone
Johnson's journey from zero to hero is an amazing sports story – would be compelling and heartwarming were he not an Aussie
He has reluctantly concluded that the Liberal Democrats would spurn the chance of another coalition after the May election. He described the party mood as “collectively relieved that the whole ordeal is over,” adding: “A lot of people in the party will feel that they have reached the end of the contract.”
There's no value at all in backing any formal coalitions at current prices. Minority government bets (both sides) look the way to go.
“The best coalitions are where the two parties challenge each other to rise to even greater heights,” said Mr Browne. The worst ones are those that resort to a “lowest common denominator” as the parties block each other’s policies. This Coalition started in the first category but is ending in the second, and he regrets that. “I embody the spirit that Nick Clegg brought to government for the first two years of this Parliament – to a greater degree than he now does.”
Describing the change of strategy as “a really serious mistake”, Mr Browne said: “As a result, the party has remained surprisingly becalmed given the terrible election results and opinion polls. But we have not made a compelling case to the country. Instead, we have chosen to try and feel good about ourselves.”
He generally seems a sensible sort, Jeremy Browne. More like him and I'd be more inclined to vote LD than I am at present, which is basically that they might - only might - get a pity vote from me, if no decent alternative is standing, but why bother really?
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour have a three-point lead: CON 31, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 15, GRN 7
Well I got the Greens right
This is looking bad for the Tories now. A definite trend in favour of Labour. Not huge, but enough to ensure EICIPM, even if it is NOM.
I suspect two causes; the Green surge has peaked, and the the Scots are having second thoughts about giving the Nats 40 seats.
The immediate effect must surely be a swift Cameron agreement to the TV debates. Cameron will soon be the underdog. And underdogs ALWAYS want to debate: because underdogs need a game changer.
It's a 1% swing off the back of some pretty poor headlines about tax. I don't foresee any immediate effects. EM is campaigning like the underdog - Ed v Goliath.
It will be effective for a while but psychologically I'm not sure framing yourself as such is a great idea - I reckon the people would have voted for Goliath. Philistines.
I would be inclined to agree. Ed is very strong when on the attack – but he can't possibly be on the front foot foot for another 12 weeks. He's defensive work is the problem.
He seems quite slippery to me - he barely seems to get any negative connection from being at the heart of the last government as an adviser then a minister for instance.
I am still waiting for somebody to ask his former Mirror employed spin man, what, if anything, he knew about phone hacking going on at that newspaper, because it is now thought that it was more widespread than even at the NOTW. I am sure he knew nothing or saw nothing, but somebody should really ask.
Off topic, I've finally backed England to win the cricket world cup at 10/1
I know, we're as useful as a condom with holes in both ends,
But look at the format of the tournament. If we beat Scotland and Afghanistan in the group stages, we're through to Quarters (I know we lost to Ireland and Bangladesh last time)
Then in the quarters, we'll probably end up facing Saffers, Pakistan, India or West Indies, we should be able to defeat the latter three, and we all know the Saffers are chokers.
Then we're in the semis, and we're one innings of a lifetime from Buttler or Morgan away from the final.
So has all the hallmarks of a decent trading bet.
Yeah, reasonable bet given the draw (and the fact that the QF is in Melbourne which should suit). Ed Hawkins has tipped it too. I'm being greedy and waiting for us to lose to Australia first.
Oooh, that's a good point.
That must be factored in, but if we do well against the Aussies then the price may shorten.
I just can't see it – they have the hex over us at the moment. We should have beaten them last time but they still won decisively.
I'd love to see but I fear you are correct.
I'll be up around 6am to watch – but they are very, very strong (I actually think a better ODI side without Clarke – even though he remains the best Test batsman I have ever seen at a live Test)
I agree with you, and with Johnson back they could skittle everyone
Johnson's journey from zero to hero is an amazing sports story – would be compelling and heartwarming were he not an Aussie
More like hero to zero to hero, which of course is even more compelling.
It'll be close until after Easter. Then any move is interesting and momentum hard to change. I suspect the Scots have shown us the way. With limited interest and gnats attention span it is the tail of the campaign that counts and can move at a rapid pace.
So when is the Labour majority price going to crash?
We are still a long way from that David. Ed is brilliant when on the attack but very underwhelming in defence. He will have to defend again at some stage.
I don't think he is that good on the attack but he is truly terrible defending. But it does not matter. His polling is so bad that his capacity to hurt Labour further from here is modest.
The Tories have run the line this week that they have created 1000 jobs for every day they have been in office. It is an absolutely incredible achievement, especially as part of the EU which is dogged with high, structural unemployment. And where has it got them? Absolutely nowhere.
People are just not listening to them or giving the alternative the critical analysis that Labour's rag bag of policies requires. What I find increasingly bewildering is the confidence that this is suddenly all going to change in the next 90 days. It might. But then again...
@Speedy Sean is into quantum politics, he can easily hold two opposing views at the same moment in space/time
It's more common than you might think. People think they fit into neat little political boxes, and can be very surprised when they in fact do not, or when multiple strongly held beliefs conflict with each other. I would not presume to assess whether that is the case for someone else, but I like to think I'm that way, rather than the possibility merely being indecisive or inconsistent.
Ancient story that Miliband has stupidly revived by obsessing about tax dodgers. The Milibands themselves dodged tax. Quite legally, of course, but they nonetheless cleverly arranged their affairs so that the inherited millions of property wealth would deftly swerve the taxman's rugby tackle.
I doubt any Tory will attack him for it, as they are all doing the same. But the papers have no such qualms, apart from the Guardian, which hides its profits in the Caymans.
It's very thin Sean. The problem the Mail has now is that everybody expects it to attack Labour (anyone remember Gravegate and Piegate?) and as such its barbs are neutered.
Getting a literal desperate now. When Miliband is PM. A lot of people on PB are going to have to ask themselves how they can be so wrong about something they are so certain they are right about.
Britain Elects @britainelects · 22s 22 seconds ago Labour GAIN Mark Hall (Harlow) from UKIP.
whoopsadaisy...
"With Harlow being another key seat for the election, UKIP will be gunning to hold this seat and prove, just three months from polling day that their breakthrough in 2013 and their continued strength in 2014 is here to stay in 2015."
"Quite legally, of course, but they nonetheless cleverly arranged their affairs so that the inherited millions of property wealth would deftly swerve the taxman's rugby tackle."
How? As their Mother is still alive there would have been no tax to pay. If their father left the house to the children in trust he must have had little regard for his wife. Either way it wouldn't have been something that would have involved Ed or David.It makes no sense
Britain Elects @britainelects · 22s 22 seconds ago Labour GAIN Mark Hall (Harlow) from UKIP.
whoopsadaisy...
"With Harlow being another key seat for the election, UKIP will be gunning to hold this seat and prove, just three months from polling day that their breakthrough in 2013 and their continued strength in 2014 is here to stay in 2015."
Paradoxically the Labour gain may be well a good result for the Tory MP
So when is the Labour majority price going to crash?
We are still a long way from that David. Ed is brilliant when on the attack but very underwhelming in defence. He will have to defend again at some stage.
I don't think he is that good on the attack but he is truly terrible defending. But it does not matter. His polling is so bad that his capacity to hurt Labour further from here is modest.
The Tories have run the line this week that they have created 1000 jobs for every day they have been in office. It is an absolutely incredible achievement, especially as part of the EU which is dogged with high, structural unemployment. And where has it got them? Absolutely nowhere.
People are just not listening to them or giving the alternative the critical analysis that Labour's rag bag of policies requires. What I find increasingly bewildering is the confidence that this is suddenly all going to change in the next 90 days. It might. But then again...
Britain Elects @britainelects · 22s 22 seconds ago Labour GAIN Mark Hall (Harlow) from UKIP.
Kippers really don't have much to celebrate these days. Could they end up behind even the obscure fringe party that is the Lib Dems ?
I have a small bet on that with Isam and to be honest had been working on the basis it was a certain loser for months. I think it probably still is tbh.
The Mail is probably the one remaining newspaper that still has the ability to frighten politicians and drive agendas, because it is so successful, and also so unpredictable, And because the editor is a strange kind of mercurial genius, friend of Gordon Brown, yet no friend of the Milibands.
The Mail is more *important* than Murdoch, I suspect. And I write mainly for the Murdoch press, not Dacre.
@zoesqwilliams: "the golden rule of any politician is not to annoy the Daily Mail or Business" Armando Iannucci is very succinct. Brilliant. lovely #bbcqt
"Ed are you proposing a tax on rich people that you yourself would have to pay?"
"Yes, I think its only right that everyone who is fortunate in society pays their fair way, If Prime Minister I will be raising my own tax bill to help others. Now - I would like to ask David Cameron if he benefited himself from cutting the 50p tax rate"
Well, quite. QED. Miliband has decided to remind everyone that he is in the ultra-rich London posho class also inhabited by Dave Cameron. Thing is, voters expect Tories to be greedy rich London bastards (but they often forgive them, and vote them in, because they also think Tories are basically competent at the money stuff, perhaps from having so much of it)
The perception of Labour is that a few of them might be loaded, but they are the party of the people, still - not so great at handling the economy, in fact quite crap, but the party means well, because they know what it is to be poor.
So the renewed and reiterated revelation that the already-disliked Labour leader is really HUGELY, LONDONY rich (by most people's standards) is not good for the party (esp in Scotland?).
You reckon? I sometimes think people who cut across psephological wealth stereotypes do well in politics: the working class Tory, the reluctant peer etc etc
Comments
Because normally any "events" take a few days to show in the polling, and while they might merely bounce about the present stalemate, some might point to how this weeks games have gone down with the voters (supplementaries)
Good point. We often hear how UKIP damages Labour as much as the Tory. Bring on 45% at election day!!!!
Calls to burn down UKIP shop by members of group run by Green PPC & Labour Councillor
A Facebook group run by a Green Parliamentary Candidate, a Welsh Scottish Nationalist and a Labour councillor has members who advocated burning down the UKIP shop in Merthyr Tydfil.
(2.42 Befair or 2.48 PM after Cameron)
Hardly surprising given what T.R. is meant to have overheard, I wonder if the reporter made them aware of the clarification, or asked them about the original?
Will he finally stop and look at his own life? I'm guessing just more copying and pasteing
31 is one below the ten day range for the Tories.
It's the Tory number that is attention seeking.
The Lib Dems don't have that straw.
What price are you laying?
It will be effective for a while but psychologically I'm not sure framing yourself as such is a great idea - I reckon the people would have voted for Goliath. Philistines.
Has to be a coin flip at the very best i reckon
Maybe heart over head on both our parts?
Only a couple of months left and a draw sees Labour in. Cherio Dave.
Like I say, back both, and hope for Con 280 Lab 275
Published 10 day numbers have Lab 0.8 in front. The 2010/2015 ratios imply a Tory lead of 0.3.
Oh, and if he has any money, hide it under his mattress?
Reckon Red Ed could be a vote winner.
Yawn.
Interesting logic. Laugh at a guy being the very thing you have literally spent years of your life desperately trying to stop.
Very very interesting.
Admittedly if CON most seats and Ed not PM I lose big (but at least mrs BJ divorces me when she finds out so not all bad!!!)
Utterly laughable from the desperate Tory press.
The right wing press have already shot their load when it comes to Miliband. Its priced in.
Dave screwed up in 2010. He just hasn't left himself the card in his hands he needs this time.
What's Dave's brother worth Sean, and how did Ralph (RIP) amass his fortune?
Does Dave still get a dividend from the offshore trusts?
I would frigging love that as an attack line.
"Ed are you proposing a tax on rich people that you yourself would have to pay?"
"Yes, I think its only right that everyone who is fortunate in society pays their fair way, If Prime Minister I will be raising my own tax bill to help others. Now - I would like to ask David Cameron if he benefited himself from cutting the 50p tax rate"
Even steven I reckon.
Nothing to do with trousers more about taking advantage of people who want to back Cameron at circa 1.7
Like phone hacking, tax efficiency planning amongst MP, media, etc is widespread (Fink is right about about that), and anybody who pops their head above the waterline is just asking for getting bashed (however hypocritical the attack my be).
Fink has stood up to the claims...result, he is still tarred. Lord Paul doesn't say a word, the public are none the wiser.
Oh how things change.
From your perspective now, the thing that is a political weight for Ed Miliband is his brother David, who is not even an MP anymore.
I though the position was that the popular David Miliband was supposed to save the Labour party from unpopular Ed circa 2011.
They'd have done better if they'd run it in a few weeks when it might have looked like something had come to light. This is self evidently just doing what the Mail does...'
But then why try so hard all this time? I don't begrudge the average person having a chuckle at a government. Hell knows I do about the Lib Dems.
I didn't spend all my time on a website using other peoples words to desperately ramp to - and lets be honest here - no more than 60 aging men and a handful of women,
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/jeremy-browne-interview-why-this-fallen-star-of-the-lib-dems-wont-be-standing-for-reelection-10042759.html
“The best coalitions are where the two parties challenge each other to rise to even greater heights,” said Mr Browne. The worst ones are those that resort to a “lowest common denominator” as the parties block each other’s policies. This Coalition started in the first category but is ending in the second, and he regrets that. “I embody the spirit that Nick Clegg brought to government for the first two years of this Parliament – to a greater degree than he now does.”
Describing the change of strategy as “a really serious mistake”, Mr Browne said: “As a result, the party has remained surprisingly becalmed given the terrible election results and opinion polls. But we have not made a compelling case to the country. Instead, we have chosen to try and feel good about ourselves.”
The result of the trend overall? Look at the Wiki chart. Lab lead declining at almost the perfect rate to make most seats a toss-up.
Sean is into quantum politics, he can easily hold two opposing views at the same moment in space/time
He has reluctantly concluded that the Liberal Democrats would spurn the chance of another coalition after the May election. He described the party mood as “collectively relieved that the whole ordeal is over,” adding: “A lot of people in the party will feel that they have reached the end of the contract.”
There's no value at all in backing any formal coalitions at current prices. Minority government bets (both sides) look the way to go.
Yes, it's a very good QT for Ed but I suspect very few floating voters watch it.
The Tories have run the line this week that they have created 1000 jobs for every day they have been in office. It is an absolutely incredible achievement, especially as part of the EU which is dogged with high, structural unemployment. And where has it got them? Absolutely nowhere.
People are just not listening to them or giving the alternative the critical analysis that Labour's rag bag of policies requires. What I find increasingly bewildering is the confidence that this is suddenly all going to change in the next 90 days. It might. But then again...
Labour GAIN Mark Hall (Harlow) from UKIP.
Getting a literal desperate now. When Miliband is PM. A lot of people on PB are going to have to ask themselves how they can be so wrong about something they are so certain they are right about.
Night all
"With Harlow being another key seat for the election, UKIP will be gunning to hold this seat and prove, just three months from polling day that their breakthrough in 2013 and their continued strength in 2014 is here to stay in 2015."
Labour GAIN Mark Hall (Harlow) from UKIP.
As predicted
How? As their Mother is still alive there would have been no tax to pay. If their father left the house to the children in trust he must have had little regard for his wife. Either way it wouldn't have been something that would have involved Ed or David.It makes no sense
Mark Hall (Harlow) result:
LAB - 42.6% (+8.2)
UKIP - 25.7% (-12.2)
CON - 24.3% (+4.5)
GRN - 4.0% (+4.0)
LDEM - 3.4% (-4.4)
Mark Hall (Harlow) result:
LAB - 42.6% (+8.2)
UKIP - 25.7% (-12.2)
CON - 24.3% (+4.5)
GRN - 4.0% (+4.0)
LDEM - 3.4% (-4.4)
A decisive swing from UKIP to Labour.
http://electionforecast.co.uk/