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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 12th 2015
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : February 12th 2015
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 32, Liberal Democrats 14, United Kingdom Independence Party 12, Labour 7, Independents 4 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3)
Result of ward at last election (2013):
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Speaking of Harlow, 1/3 seems generous for Robert Halfon to hold on, though the price won't appeal to everyone.
Milibands mum will be pleased. He split the family, and now the media will be sniffing around their financial affairs.
Oh, wait...
Tactical voting explained in full.
Didn't see them, but they were out there.
I think I might end up tactically voting.
And Farron gives tacit support to the SNP/Labour on a bill by bill basis.
And various PBers have lost money backing Clegg.
And you'd wasted your vote on a no hoper candidate
It is a very very safe Tory seat!
A great podcast http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/the-spectator/2015/02/peter-oborne-ed-miliband-is-the-greatest-opposition-leader-since-the-war/
In your PB Tory dreams
Well worth listening to – I'm putting it forward for a Nighthawks link @TSE
I was impressed with Fink's interview in the Evening Standard tonight. He perfectly distinguished between the legal and prudent arrangement of one's financial affairs and downright criminality - a distinction that Miliband has been striving to blur. It will be harder in future for Miliband to disseminate such pernicious abstractions. Either someone's a criminal under British law or they're not. Weird notions that only exist in the fetid imaginings of the far-Left are neither here nor there.
Hodges voting for Ed and backing Dave.
Funny old world.
LOL. It was entirely embarrassing. Central Office will be wishing the Finkster simply kept his mouth shut.
Meanwhile, I see that my alter ego TheLastBobaFett actually got banned after just two posts earlier this evening.
Surely a PB record?
Why were you embarrassed?
Of course, the Lady might prove crucial in a vote of no confidence at some point; but if it's gotten that close the government wouldn't be long for this world anyway.
*on that note, here's a strong contender for the worst bet available on the GE: Con/Green coalition at 7/1 with Betfair Sportsbook
"Frank Nash, tax partner at accountants Blick Rothenberg, says the effect of the deed is no different to that which would have been achieved if there had been a well-written will in the first place. “What the deed seems to have done is to pass the £150,000 tax-free allowance from the father directly to the children,” he says. “If the father had sat down a month earlier and written the will to do that there would have been no issue.”"
So in classic leftie style, Milibands tax avoidance is good tax avoidance coz his Dad wrote his will wrong.
I've got nothing against avoiding tax. If its legal not to pay it, you have to be nuts to pay it.
Labour are trying to position everyone who is rich who legally avoids unnecessary tax as tax evaders as part of their slimy class war.
They really deserve to lose on this alone. Bunch of pond life in their million pound north London mansions.
'The general rule that incumbents tend to put on a few points in the actual campaign. '
Most people seem to believe that but it is actually a myth! The official election campaign - the month leading up to polling day - has generally favoured the Opposition. This was true in - 1959 - 1964 - 1966 - 1970 - Feb 1974 - Oct 1974 - 1987 - 2001 - 2005 - 2010. The 1983 campaign saw no swing either way - though this was due to a swing from Labour to the Alliance. The Tory vote did actually drop several points in the final weeks. The 1979 and 1997 elections did see the incumbent gain ground - but on both occasions the Government was trailing badly and went on to lose decisively. This leaves 1992 for Tory optimists.
The above does not contradict the idea of 'swingback' from midterm at all - but it can reasonably be argued that this has already happened and that the Tories have circa 7 weeks left to build up a lead to offset likely campaign slippage.
The Speaker should always be counted and he should be counted as Con.
Which is why the BBC in its results does count the Speaker as Con.
The reason is that Lab has to supply two Deputy Speakers whilst Con only supplies one.
None of the Speakers vote - not just the Speaker, the Deputy Speakers don't vote either.
So you must either count the Speaker as Con. Or, if not, deduct two Deputy Speakers off Lab and one off Con. Which gives the same net result as counting the speaker as Con.
Which is what the BBC does and BBC results are used for settling most bets.
Ladbrokes
The Speaker will not count for any party totals. Any seats won in Northern Ireland will not count for either Labour, Conservatives or Lib Dem party totals.
bet365
The Speaker, if seeking re-election, will not count as an MP of any party.
William Hill / Paddys
The Speaker, if seeking re-election, will not count.
I wonder what's stopping him.
Dave or Ozzie could do it and shoot Ed's fox?
EICIPM (2.42 on Betfair) is a cracking bet IMO
What about Betfair? I thought they followed BBC. BBC results below has Speaker as Con - Con total 307, blue on map.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/election2010/results/default.stm
• Democratic Unionist: Antrim East, Londonderry East, Lagan Valley, North Antrim, Strangford (5)
• Social Democratic and Labour Party: Belfast South, South Down (2)
• Sinn Fein: Belfast West, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Mid Ulster, Newry and Armagh, West Tyrone (5)
• Independent: North Down (1)
• Too close to call: Belfast East, Belfast North, Foyle, South Antrim, Upper Bann (5)
Depends on what they would allow to be inspected?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/9218119/David-Camerons-inherited-family-wealth-based-in-foreign-tax-havens.html
Yes, the Opposition tends to pick up points during the official campaign, due to greater media exposure, etc. (Harder for them to get airtime normally)
Mark Oaten was certainly a notable ab stainer.*
*allegedly.
You have been telling me its a certainty as well
Where the Specific Sports Rules do not specify how and on what basis a market will be settled, markets will be settled on the official result of the relevant governing body regardless of any subsequent disqualification or amendment to the result (except if an amendment is announced within 24 hours of the initial settlement of the relevant market in order to correct an error in reporting the result).
If no official result of a relevant governing body is available, the result will be determined by Betfair (acting reasonably) using information from independent sources.
@SkyNews: DAILY TELEGRAPH FRONT PAGE: "Enjoy low prices while you can" #skypapers http://t.co/cemuSsHtXy
I have £200 @ 13-8 with Ladbrokes on NOM, £50 on Con Majority @ 4-1 and -£113.85 at Betfair ?
I know, we're as useful as a condom with holes in both ends,
But look at the format of the tournament. If we beat Scotland and Afghanistan in the group stages, we're through to Quarters (I know we lost to Ireland and Bangladesh last time)
Then in the quarters, we'll probably end up facing Saffers, Pakistan, India or West Indies, we should be able to defeat the latter three, and we all know the Saffers are chokers.
Then we're in the semis, and we're one innings of a lifetime from Buttler or Morgan away from the final.
So has all the hallmarks of a decent trading bet.
Generally speaking, the main issue we have at the moment is the Captain's Curse: Morgan is just a dud with the bat at the moment. That said he was in poor form before being handed the captaincy.
Now down to 2.48.
Still decent odds.
Hope springs eternal.........
The great thing is that even if some of them were up to something "dodgy". they would have to pay back an estimated amount, and a small surcharge, at which point, no one would find out, as they become immune and tax secrecy protects them.
If we can injure someone and get Stokes back in, those will look pretty good odds when we're in the semis
C 33 L 33 LD 6 UKIP 14 GRN 7
I wish i was as organised.
Me i am green on EICIPM, Lab most seats and now EICIPM after Cameron (only a bit)
Red on all other outcomes although i did cover a bit on most seats market in November I got tempted back in with EICIPM drift so back to square one
If he's got nothing to hide, and his front bench team don't either, then they could force the Tories to do the same and look rich and a bit dodgy, or if they refuse look even dodgier
Bought Buttler performance tomorrow on the basis he will definitely get a bat!
Ben Stokes should be going in at six tomorrow
And the swing back in 87, 01 and 05 went to people who lost.
The only opposition leader to add votes in the last month, and win, since 1974.... was Cameron?
Every time the subject comes up it dissolves into an argument of what is "disclosure", and what is "properly private"
Everyone gets to posture, but nothing gets revealed.
Cheers.
Labour 3% in front
Super Dave, the political masterclass and supremo with three leads out of 21. Ed is crap only has 15 out of the last 21 polls.
Okay hats off I was wrong – Francis and TSE correct.
Fifty Shades of Grey
Gets coat
Ed is great when he has something to attack. It's his defensive skills that pose a problem. Can he keep on the attack until the campaign proper begins?
not sure how far it will change votes.
All too early to tell, as obviously only one data point and 3% is well within margin of error.