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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP drop into single figures, LDs 6% as LAB move to 36% in

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  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Indigo said:

    And that's why the more CEOs and Tory donors publicly make this kind of transparently pathetic and disingenuous argument, the more people are going to go running to vote Labour.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083827/The-12m-tax-mystery-Tony-Blairs-earnings-soar-42--pays-315-000-HMRC.html
    Ah right, I meant to say people are going to go running to vote Labour, then just as they reach the polling booth, they will suddenly be struck by the vivid memory of a Daily Mail article from 2012 about Tony Blair and vote for someone else instead.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    I'm claiming a moral victory over Tissue Price.

    Like Dan Hodges will claim a moral victory when Ed is out on his ear after a year ?!
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Anyway fourteen days of business and tax dominating the not-a-campaign and despite all the Tory hot air: Labour wins.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Roger said:

    Cyclefree (again sorry!)

    "Labour claims to be going after tax avoiders. What does that mean? On what basis can you or anyone else say they won't go after those who put their money into an ISA as opposed to those who put their money into a pension which is held on trust (as most pensions are)?"

    what a pity you and the many others on here didn't speak out so loudly in defense of Jimmy Carr when he was lawfully avoiding tax. It almost cost him his career.

    Credit to him though. For all the blame he heaped on his accountant at least he never said " Well people put money into an ISA. That's avoiding tax"

    No need to be sorry Roger.

    There are lots of things I don't comment on. Bizarre to criticise me for it. I honestly cannot remember the Jimmy Carr matter. If it was a year or so ago, I was almost certainly more preoccupied with family health matters.

  • antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Not my idea of a corker of a poll. Maybe I'm just too demanding (maybe I'm just like my father, too bold).

    Sign o' the times
    It certainly doesn't look like a purple reign.
    We should stop this flirting. I know that I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man.....

    I would die for U-Gov?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538

    The Ipsos Mori numbers for England are Con 38%, Labour 37%, UKIP 10%, Green 8%, Others 7%.
  • antifrank said:

    It seems today as though Ed Miliband is channelling TSE. So far he apparently has said "I believe that children are our future" and "reach for the stars".

    He needs more imagination. "If you tolerate this, then your children will be next" would have been far more stylish.

    He's not as subtle as me.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Indigo said:

    And that's why the more CEOs and Tory donors publicly make this kind of transparently pathetic and disingenuous argument, the more people are going to go running to vote Labour.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083827/The-12m-tax-mystery-Tony-Blairs-earnings-soar-42--pays-315-000-HMRC.html
    It's ingenious.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/dec/17/mystery-tony-blairs-money-solved
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Not my idea of a corker of a poll. Maybe I'm just too demanding (maybe I'm just like my father, too bold).

    Sign o' the times
    It certainly doesn't look like a purple reign.
    We should stop this flirting. I know that I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man.....

    I would die for U-Gov?
    U-Gov got the look....

  • State of play so far this week: Labour lead 0.5% inc. yesterday's YG and today's MORI.

    12 weeks to save Crossover!
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Indigo said:


    You were just telling us all about what was moral, I assumed that was because you felt it had some relevance to the discussion. I contest that it doesn't, what is lawful is the only way to run a country.

    I agree. It's also why I dislike politicians whining about corporations behaving immorally. Legislate or shut up. (See Cameron's "time for a pay rise" for a recent example)

    But I don't see why it's not relevant to the discussion. We weren't having a discussion about how to run the country, were we? I just saw a lot of boo-hooing about Miliband's remarks and how it means he hates rich people or something. It's perfectly valid for a politician to try to make points about the moral character of his opponents. It's up to the public whether to agree with them.
  • Afternoon all.

    MORI poll - more a plain Jane than a corker if you ask me.
  • antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Not my idea of a corker of a poll. Maybe I'm just too demanding (maybe I'm just like my father, too bold).

    Sign o' the times
    It certainly doesn't look like a purple reign.
    We should stop this flirting. I know that I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man.....

    I would die for U-Gov?
    U-Gov got the look....

    Tonight we're gonna party like it's 1997?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Richard_Nabavi
    We could ask the Goldsmith family about it? Zac gave up the status but his brother kept his.
    Their sister also gave up the status, but still has her house and other things paid for by the original offshore trust.
  • Scott_P said:

    @JamesTapsfield: Mili states that he is not describing Fink as "dodgy" - that will be seized on by the Tories as a climbdown

    @MrHarryCole: Norman Smith: Ed is determined not to back down. Ed Miliband: "I'm not calling Lord Fink dodgy". Wake up dude.

    Norman Smith over the past few months has completely forgotten he is supposed to work for an impartial broadcaster.
  • Afternoon all.

    MORI poll - more a plain Jane than a corker if you ask me.

    LDs in 5th
    UKIP in single digits for the first time in any poll since September?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited February 2015

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Not my idea of a corker of a poll. Maybe I'm just too demanding (maybe I'm just like my father, too bold).

    Sign o' the times
    It certainly doesn't look like a purple reign.
    We should stop this flirting. I know that I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man.....

    I would die for U-Gov?
    U-Gov got the look....

    Tonight we're gonna party like it's 1997?
    For UKIP it should be Tonight we're gonna party like it's 1959
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    Indigo said:


    You were just telling us all about what was moral, I assumed that was because you felt it had some relevance to the discussion. I contest that it doesn't, what is lawful is the only way to run a country.

    I agree. It's also why I dislike politicians whining about corporations behaving immorally. Legislate or shut up. (See Cameron's "time for a pay rise" for a recent example)

    But I don't see why it's not relevant to the discussion. We weren't having a discussion about how to run the country, were we? I just saw a lot of boo-hooing about Miliband's remarks and how it means he hates rich people or something. It's perfectly valid for a politician to try to make points about the moral character of his opponents. It's up to the public whether to agree with them.
    The Tories brought their backers to the front of the political debate, not Ed.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    I feel a 'What if' coming on.

    Ed wins the GE and forms a government. It runs into Euro trouble when Greece exits. To regain some popularity, he allows a referendum. Despite having all the high cards, Ed with his characteristic efficiency cocks it up. We vote to leave.

    Ukip win by proxy.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Roger said:

    Cyclefree

    "I'm going to put some money into this year's ISA allowance. This will mean that I don't pay income tax on the interest earned on my savings. I will therefore avoid paying that income tax.

    I am also putting some money into my pension and give some to various charities I support. These too will enable me to avoid paying tax.

    Will Labour be pursuing me?"

    For a well respected poster that's kindergarten stuff.

    This site is surely too grown up for those sorts of reductio ad absurdum posts

    It's a perfectly legitimate question which a number of Labour-supporting posters have been unable to answer.

    Labour have deliberately - and apparently effectively - blurred the distinction between complying with the law (tax avoidance) and breaking it (tax evasion). They should not be surprised if others wonder where the law will be drawn should they be in government.
    If you were unduly cynical you might suspect that they are perfectly happy to make use of tax avoidance themselves, while garnering political brownie points by criticising it in Tories, with no intention of changing the law to make what is currently legal tax avoidance illegal tax evasion.

    Interesting use of the word unduly there, if I say so myself.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Not my idea of a corker of a poll. Maybe I'm just too demanding (maybe I'm just like my father, too bold).

    Sign o' the times
    It certainly doesn't look like a purple reign.
    We should stop this flirting. I know that I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man.....

    They were my two offerings last time there was a prince themed thread, glad they resonated
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Tax efficiency is just another way of describing legal tax avoidance.

    Tax avoidence is complying technically with the law while going against its intention. Obviously that's not a legal distinction (by its nature), .
    You've undermined your own argument right there.

    Under the rule of the law (yes that old thing again) certainty is needed. If the government wants to change the law to eliminate loopholes I'm all in favour. But while they exist and subject to any other relevant laws, taxpayers using them are acting lawfully.



    HMRC Briefing: Tackling Tax Avoidance (pdf)

    This government has done quite a bit to tackle exactly the sort of avoidance that BenM, Roger, et al are complaining about.

    For Roger: this is the sort of thing that Mr Carr was involved with, as far as I can see Lord F has not been accused of the same. Bordering on smear tactics to conflate the two.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Sean_F said:


    The Ipsos Mori numbers for England are Con 38%, Labour 37%, UKIP 10%, Green 8%, Others 7%.

    Labour ~ 10% in England than where they are in Scotland.

    Big turnaround.

  • antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Not my idea of a corker of a poll. Maybe I'm just too demanding (maybe I'm just like my father, too bold).

    Sign o' the times
    It certainly doesn't look like a purple reign.
    We should stop this flirting. I know that I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man.....

    I would die for U-Gov?
    U-Gov got the look....

    Tonight we're gonna party like it's 1997?
    For UKIP it should be Tonight we're gonna party like its 1959
    This is what it sounds like, when Gove cries?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Scott_P said:

    @JamesTapsfield: Mili states that he is not describing Fink as "dodgy" - that will be seized on by the Tories as a climbdown

    @MrHarryCole: Norman Smith: Ed is determined not to back down. Ed Miliband: "I'm not calling Lord Fink dodgy". Wake up dude.

    Norman Smith over the past few months has completely forgotten he is supposed to work for an impartial broadcaster.
    He doesn't though - he works for the BBC.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    So through the Deed of Covenant, Robinson opens up Miliband's personal tax affairs to millions of folks who never knew about it. If you're going to go against millionaire tax avoiders, the last thing you want coming to the voters attention is the idea that you might yourself be.... Er....a millionaire tax avoider...

    Those who think Ed has played a blinder might just want to wait a while....
  • antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Not my idea of a corker of a poll. Maybe I'm just too demanding (maybe I'm just like my father, too bold).

    Sign o' the times
    It certainly doesn't look like a purple reign.
    We should stop this flirting. I know that I Could Never Take the Place of Your Man.....

    I would die for U-Gov?
    U-Gov got the look....

    Tonight we're gonna party like it's 1997?
    For UKIP it should be Tonight we're gonna party like its 1959
    What was wrong with 1959?
  • Smarmeron said:

    @Richard_Nabavi
    We could ask the Goldsmith family about it? Zac gave up the status but his brother kept his.
    Their sister also gave up the status, but still has her house and other things paid for by the original offshore trust.

    Yes, it will depend on a whole host of things, see pages 27-33 of this HMRC guide for very quick overview:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/366836/rdr1_1_.pdf
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:


    You were just telling us all about what was moral, I assumed that was because you felt it had some relevance to the discussion. I contest that it doesn't, what is lawful is the only way to run a country.

    I agree. It's also why I dislike politicians whining about corporations behaving immorally. Legislate or shut up. (See Cameron's "time for a pay rise" for a recent example)
    You will get no disagreement with me on that one, I almost choked on my breakfast when I read that headline a few days ago. Its a strange world when politicians whine about morals and the clergy complain about laws.

  • Arghhh autocorrect leads to horrific apostrophe misuse.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    There was a Doctor Fink in Prince's backing band. No...it couldn't be...could it?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Jonathan said:

    Indigo said:


    You were just telling us all about what was moral, I assumed that was because you felt it had some relevance to the discussion. I contest that it doesn't, what is lawful is the only way to run a country.

    I agree. It's also why I dislike politicians whining about corporations behaving immorally. Legislate or shut up. (See Cameron's "time for a pay rise" for a recent example)

    But I don't see why it's not relevant to the discussion. We weren't having a discussion about how to run the country, were we? I just saw a lot of boo-hooing about Miliband's remarks and how it means he hates rich people or something. It's perfectly valid for a politician to try to make points about the moral character of his opponents. It's up to the public whether to agree with them.
    The Tories brought their backers to the front of the political debate, not Ed.
    It was a combination of Guardian, BBC and Labour who sought to smear the Tories.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Richard_Nabavi
    Thanks Richard, but I already had a look, The actual law was apparently brought in in 1914, and it might just be me, but I am thinking it might have been framed for an entirely different era.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2015
    It beggars belief that Ed M is now trying to claim he didn't call Lord Fink 'dodgy'.

    Let us take Stanley Fink, who gave £3 million to the Conservative party. The Prime Minister actually appointed him as treasurer of the party and gave him a peerage for good measure. Will he now explain what steps he is going to take about the tax avoidance activities of Lord Fink?
    ...
    [reply by Cameron]
    ...
    The Prime Minister cannot get away from it: he is a dodgy Prime Minister surrounded by dodgy donors.


    Given that in the previous breath Ed had specifically mentioned Lord Fink by name, and named no-one else, and demanded that the PM should take steps in his regard, it really doesn't require a PhD in applied semantics, or a degree in law, to see that the only possible interpretation of the next sentence is that Ed was claiming Lord Fink was a "dodgy donor".
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326

    Indigo said:


    You were just telling us all about what was moral, I assumed that was because you felt it had some relevance to the discussion. I contest that it doesn't, what is lawful is the only way to run a country.

    It's perfectly valid for a politician to try to make points about the moral character of his opponents. It's up to the public whether to agree with them.
    Yes - let's look at the moral character of Labour politicians.

    Hmm: let's see - a Labour Prime Minister interviewed by the police under caution and who is also a donor to the party and has arranged his tax affairs (according to today's press using a large number of offshore entities) to pay a very small amount of tax, a number of Labour MPs sent to prison for fraud, a party receiving a loan from a very rich person with a Swiss bank account (yes I know that's legal but that doesn't matter) and a party which sought to smear the wives and children of their opponents.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    It beggars belief that Ed M is now trying to claim he didn't call Lord Fink 'dodgy'.

    Let us take Stanley Fink, who gave £3 million to the Conservative party. The Prime Minister actually appointed him as treasurer of the party and gave him a peerage for good measure. Will he now explain what steps he is going to take about the tax avoidance activities of Lord Fink?
    ...
    [reply by Cameron]
    ...
    The Prime Minister cannot get away from it: he is a dodgy Prime Minister surrounded by dodgy donors.


    Given that in the previous breath Ed had specifically mentioned Lord Fink by name, and named no-one else, and demanded that the PM should take steps in his regard, it really doesn't require a PhD is applied semantics, or a degree in law, to see that the only possible interpretation of the next sentence is that Ed was claiming Lord Fink was a "dodgy donor".

    From what you quote Ed is correct.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Tax efficiency is just another way of describing legal tax avoidance.

    Tax avoidence is complying technically with the law while going against its intention. Obviously that's not a legal distinction (by its nature), .
    You've undermined your own argument right there.

    Under the rule of the law (yes that old thing again) certainty is needed. If the government wants to change the law to eliminate loopholes I'm all in favour. But while they exist and subject to any other relevant laws, taxpayers using them are acting lawfully.
    Have you never heard of First Tier Tribunals?

    The exact reason they exist is to deal with Tax Avoidance and only Tax Avoidance. Because Tax Efficiency is never questioned and Tax Evasion is dealt with as a Crime.

    That's why the distinction is important. If you practise Tax Avoidance, you accept that because you are not using intended legistlative protocols to reduce your tax you are at risk of the structure being closed by legislation (which might eat up most of the costs you've paid out in Tax Advice) or the loophole not only being closed by being successfully challenged at the Tribunal by HMRC and you being handed a substantial bill for back tax, penalties and interest.

    Put simple, under the law in the UK you can perfectly legally avoid tax and STILL end up with a big bill.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    My hunch was correct, SNP on 5%.

    Labour barely behind in the south is interesting.
  • Smarmeron said:

    @Richard_Nabavi
    Thanks Richard, but I already had a look, The actual law was apparently brought in in 1914, and it might just be me, but I am thinking it might have been framed for an entirely different era.

    It's mostly determined by case law, though. But yes, you are right in your implication that increased globalisation, international mobility, and ease of cross-border transfers makes this whole area quite a tricky one for the tax authorities in all countries.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    It beggars belief that Ed M is now trying to claim he didn't call Lord Fink 'dodgy'.

    Let us take Stanley Fink, who gave £3 million to the Conservative party. The Prime Minister actually appointed him as treasurer of the party and gave him a peerage for good measure. Will he now explain what steps he is going to take about the tax avoidance activities of Lord Fink?
    ...
    [reply by Cameron]
    ...
    The Prime Minister cannot get away from it: he is a dodgy Prime Minister surrounded by dodgy donors.


    Given that in the previous breath Ed had specifically mentioned Lord Fink by name, and named no-one else, and demanded that the PM should take steps in his regard, it really doesn't require a PhD is applied semantics, or a degree in law, to see that the only possible interpretation of the next sentence is that Ed was claiming Lord Fink was a "dodgy donor".

    Milliband would never dare repeat that exact statement outside the HoC.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Dair said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Tax efficiency is just another way of describing legal tax avoidance.

    Tax avoidence is complying technically with the law while going against its intention. Obviously that's not a legal distinction (by its nature), .
    You've undermined your own argument right there.

    Under the rule of the law (yes that old thing again) certainty is needed. If the government wants to change the law to eliminate loopholes I'm all in favour. But while they exist and subject to any other relevant laws, taxpayers using them are acting lawfully.
    Have you never heard of First Tier Tribunals?

    The exact reason they exist is to deal with Tax Avoidance and only Tax Avoidance. Because Tax Efficiency is never questioned and Tax Evasion is dealt with as a Crime.

    That's why the distinction is important. If you practise Tax Avoidance, you accept that because you are not using intended legistlative protocols to reduce your tax you are at risk of the structure being closed by legislation (which might eat up most of the costs you've paid out in Tax Advice) or the loophole not only being closed by being successfully challenged at the Tribunal by HMRC and you being handed a substantial bill for back tax, penalties and interest.

    Put simple, under the law in the UK you can perfectly legally avoid tax and STILL end up with a big bill.
    Since I'm currently dealing with exactly such a case I suspect I know rather more about this than you do.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Jonathan said:

    It beggars belief that Ed M is now trying to claim he didn't call Lord Fink 'dodgy'.

    Let us take Stanley Fink, who gave £3 million to the Conservative party. The Prime Minister actually appointed him as treasurer of the party and gave him a peerage for good measure. Will he now explain what steps he is going to take about the tax avoidance activities of Lord Fink?
    ...
    [reply by Cameron]
    ...
    The Prime Minister cannot get away from it: he is a dodgy Prime Minister surrounded by dodgy donors.


    Given that in the previous breath Ed had specifically mentioned Lord Fink by name, and named no-one else, and demanded that the PM should take steps in his regard, it really doesn't require a PhD is applied semantics, or a degree in law, to see that the only possible interpretation of the next sentence is that Ed was claiming Lord Fink was a "dodgy donor".

    From what you quote Ed is correct.
    If you are right, Ed will be asked to say who he WAS calling dodgy then - so that they might issue a writ....

    Of course he was talking about Fink. Stop being wilfully stupid. We know you aren't.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    When were Labour on 37% in England last ?

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2015

    Afternoon all.

    MORI poll - more a plain Jane than a corker if you ask me.

    LDs in 5th
    UKIP in single digits for the first time in any poll since September?

    Admittedly Mr Blue - however I was expecting changes of more than 1 or 2%. for a 'corker'..!
  • So, let's get this clear, Labour's defence is that Ed was deliberately trying to smear Lord Fink without any basis?

    Well, yes, but in the Blair/Brown era they'd have been less transparent about it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    Pulpstar said:

    When were Labour on 37% in England last ?

    They got 35% in 2005 and 41% in 2001. That LD collapse in favour of Labour is key. I think Mike may have mentioned it a couple of times.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited February 2015
    Nats on 56%! in Scotland on the weighted with turnout 10/10
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    You pays your money, you takes your choice.

    "Miliband is likely to be very specific in what he repeats. In the Commons he referred to tax avoidance, not evasion, and did not describe Lord Fink directly as a dodgy donor. Tax avoidance is legal but deprives the Treasury of income."
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Corking poll for TSE this, looks like that £400 could really be his.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Cyclefree said:

    Dair said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Tax efficiency is just another way of describing legal tax avoidance.

    Tax avoidence is complying technically with the law while going against its intention. Obviously that's not a legal distinction (by its nature), .
    You've undermined your own argument right there.

    Under the rule of the law (yes that old thing again) certainty is needed. If the government wants to change the law to eliminate loopholes I'm all in favour. But while they exist and subject to any other relevant laws, taxpayers using them are acting lawfully.
    Have you never heard of First Tier Tribunals?

    The exact reason they exist is to deal with Tax Avoidance and only Tax Avoidance. Because Tax Efficiency is never questioned and Tax Evasion is dealt with as a Crime.

    That's why the distinction is important. If you practise Tax Avoidance, you accept that because you are not using intended legistlative protocols to reduce your tax you are at risk of the structure being closed by legislation (which might eat up most of the costs you've paid out in Tax Advice) or the loophole not only being closed by being successfully challenged at the Tribunal by HMRC and you being handed a substantial bill for back tax, penalties and interest.

    Put simple, under the law in the UK you can perfectly legally avoid tax and STILL end up with a big bill.
    Since I'm currently dealing with exactly such a case I suspect I know rather more about this than you do.
    Then you will know that the HMRC will appeal where it loses, will persist to the end and all your costs are likely to be unrecoverable even if you are one of the lucky ones that win. Perhaps the stringency of your argument is based more on personal slight at being pursued by HMRC rather than any genuine analysis of Tax Avoidance.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    When were Labour on 37% in England last ?

    2005?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited February 2015
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    I believe* that "corker" came from the concept of closing the matter down (i.e. putting the cork in bottle). Eg such an amazing argument that it wins hands down.

    I don't see how this poll comes anywhere close to that. Unless it refers to the LibDem position - and how it shows it's all over for them?



    *I might be wrong. It has been known. Occasionally.
  • Blimey some Tory donor is offering big money for anyone wanting to back Lab most seats or lays tory most seats on Betfair.... 10k and 8k available!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Dair said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Dair said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Tax efficiency is just another way of describing legal tax avoidance.

    Tax avoidence is complying technically with the law while going against its intention. Obviously that's not a legal distinction (by its nature), .
    You've undermined your own argument right there.

    Under the rule of the law (yes that old thing again) certainty is needed. If the government wants to change the law to eliminate loopholes I'm all in favour. But while they exist and subject to any other relevant laws, taxpayers using them are acting lawfully.
    Have you never heard of First Tier Tribunals?

    The exact reason they exist is to deal with Tax Avoidance and only Tax Avoidance. Because Tax Efficiency is never questioned and Tax Evasion is dealt with as a Crime.

    That's why the distinction is important. If you practise Tax Avoidance, you accept that because you are not using intended legistlative protocols to reduce your tax you are at risk of the structure being closed by legislation (which might eat up most of the costs you've paid out in Tax Advice) or the loophole not only being closed by being successfully challenged at the Tribunal by HMRC and you being handed a substantial bill for back tax, penalties and interest.

    Put simple, under the law in the UK you can perfectly legally avoid tax and STILL end up with a big bill.
    Since I'm currently dealing with exactly such a case I suspect I know rather more about this than you do.
    Then you will know that the HMRC will appeal where it loses, will persist to the end and all your costs are likely to be unrecoverable even if you are one of the lucky ones that win. Perhaps the stringency of your argument is based more on personal slight at being pursued by HMRC rather than any genuine analysis of Tax Avoidance.
    HMRC's record for winning cases isn't that great.
  • Smarmeron said:

    You pays your money, you takes your choice.

    "Miliband is likely to be very specific in what he repeats. In the Commons he referred to tax avoidance, not evasion, and did not describe Lord Fink directly as a dodgy donor. Tax avoidance is legal but deprives the Treasury of income."

    Let's hope some journalist asks: "So, Mr. Miliband, for the avoidance of doubt, would you care to confirm that you were not in any way suggesting that Lord Fink is a 'dodgy donor? "

    and a follow-up question:

    "In that case, Mr Miliband, why did you mention Lord Fink at all?"

    [It also beggars belief that anyone is defending Ed. He is showing himself unfit to be an MP, let alone PM]
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Blimey some Tory donor is offering big money for anyone wanting to back Lab most seats or lays tory most seats on Betfair.... 10k and 8k available!

    Don't tell me people think the polls are total b8llocks...???

    Surely not
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Indigo
    It's record on bringing cases forward is hardly stellar either.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    One of the weaknesses of PB within a political institution that is of course a naughty indulgence for us all is that OGH's mighty organ has a tendency to go all weak at the knees over a single opinion poll that it must be said has been shamelessly hyped and is frankly drearily within the margin of error.

    For the want of doubt let PB be clear and being mindful of PBers bank balances, Swiss or not, that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Smarmeron said:

    You pays your money, you takes your choice.

    "Miliband is likely to be very specific in what he repeats. In the Commons he referred to tax avoidance, not evasion, and did not describe Lord Fink directly as a dodgy donor. Tax avoidance is legal but deprives the Treasury of income."


    Someone deciding to work four days a week instead of five also deprives the Treasury of income.

    That's not a very good test for dodgy-ness.
  • Blimey some Tory donor is offering big money for anyone wanting to back Lab most seats or lays tory most seats on Betfair.... 10k and 8k available!

    Well done on Spurs scoring a goal past Liverpool. Even if one was a blatant offside.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Indigo said:

    Dair said:


    Then you will know that the HMRC will appeal where it loses, will persist to the end and all your costs are likely to be unrecoverable even if you are one of the lucky ones that win. Perhaps the stringency of your argument is based more on personal slight at being pursued by HMRC rather than any genuine analysis of Tax Avoidance.

    HMRC's record for winning cases isn't that great.
    Wouldn't claim it was really. But the point I was trying to make was that Tax Avoidance is completely difference to Tax Efficiency (using the as intended legislative tax reduction schemes).

    Cyclefree is arguing they are the same because they are both legal when in reality the risk is quite different for the two classes of tax reduction.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    JackW said:

    One of the weaknesses of PB within a political institution that is of course a naughty indulgence for us all is that OGH's mighty organ has a tendency to go all weak at the knees over a single opinion poll that it must be said has been shamelessly hyped and is frankly drearily within the margin of error.

    For the want of doubt let PB be clear and being mindful of PBers bank balances, Swiss or not, that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

    What was your prediction for the referendum, Yes @ 41%+/-1.5% with a certainty of 90-95% was it ?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Yes please.
    Sean_F said:


    The Ipsos Mori numbers for England are Con 38%, Labour 37%, UKIP 10%, Green 8%, Others 7%.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,975
    RN

    "Let us take Stanley Fink, who gave £3 million to the Conservative party. The Prime Minister actually appointed him as treasurer of the party and gave him a peerage for good measure. Will he now explain what steps he is going to take about the tax avoidance activities of Lord Fink?"

    I presume Ed knows of certain tax avoidance taken by Lord Fink. A Swiss bank account would probably be enough. He never suggested criminal activity so ANY aggressive avoidance would do. A Swiss bank account would under these circumstances take some explaining.

    I repeat the case of Jimmy Carr is worth revisiting
  • I believe* that "corker" came from the concept of closing the matter down (i.e. putting the cork in bottle). Eg such an amazing argument that it wins hands down.

    I don't see how this poll comes anywhere close to that. Unless it refers to the LibDem position - and how it shows it's all over for them?



    *I might be wrong. It has been known. Occasionally.

    ''Fink means good bread'' - not dodgy bread at all.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/22/nyregion/neighborhood-report-long-island-city-yeasty-smell-blows-sea-era-ends-fink-bakery.html
  • Pulpstar said:

    Corking poll for TSE this, looks like that £400 could really be his.

    I still think I'll lose that bet but blimey it is fun
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Plato said:

    Yes please.

    Sean_F said:


    The Ipsos Mori numbers for England are Con 38%, Labour 37%, UKIP 10%, Green 8%, Others 7%.

    You do realise those are excellent numbers for Labour right ?!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Richard_Nabavi
    Then the Tories are home and hosed, but we will have to see how the statement pans out.
    One thing for sure, if he makes it, it will get a wider audience than PMQ's
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    I'm sticking to the prediction I gave in Ilkley of a Labour Minority Gov't.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Tax avoidance and political parties.

    Now which party accepted a donation in shares recently, and why was it made in shares?
  • JackW said:

    One of the weaknesses of PB within a political institution that is of course a naughty indulgence for us all is that OGH's mighty organ has a tendency to go all weak at the knees over a single opinion poll that it must be said has been shamelessly hyped and is frankly drearily within the margin of error.

    For the want of doubt let PB be clear and being mindful of PBers bank balances, Swiss or not, that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

    Jack

    I don't wish to cast doubt on your sound judgement, nor the quality output from your ARSE and other organs, but supposing - purely hypothetically - that by some extraordinary perverse quirk of fate this country does end up with Ed as Prime Minister.....to which country will you be emigrating?


  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Dair said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Dair said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:


    Tax efficiency is just another way of describing legal tax avoidance.

    Tax avoidence is complying technically with the law while going against its intention. Obviously that's not a legal distinction (by its nature), .
    You've undermined your own argument right there.

    Under the rule of the law (yes that old thing again) certainty is needed. If the government wants to change the law to eliminate loopholes I'm all in favour. But while they exist and subject to any other relevant laws, taxpayers using them are acting lawfully.
    Have you never heard of First Tier Tribunals?

    The exact reason they exist is to deal with Tax Avoidance and only Tax Avoidance. Because Tax Efficiency is never questioned and Tax Evasion is dealt with as a Crime.

    That's why the distinction is important. If you practise Tax Avoidance, you accept that because you are not using intended legistlative protocols to reduce your tax you are at risk of the structure being closed by legislation (which might eat up most of the costs you've paid out in Tax Advice) or the loophole not only being closed by being successfully challenged at the Tribunal by HMRC and you being handed a substantial bill for back tax, penalties and interest.

    Put simple, under the law in the UK you can perfectly legally avoid tax and STILL end up with a big bill.
    Since I'm currently dealing with exactly such a case I suspect I know rather more about this than you do.
    Then you will know that the HMRC will appeal where it loses, will persist to the end and all your costs are likely to be unrecoverable even if you are one of the lucky ones that win. Perhaps the stringency of your argument is based more on personal slight at being pursued by HMRC rather than any genuine analysis of Tax Avoidance.
    Not me personally. I am involved in this in a professional capacity.

    Still nice to see that your response was to level an ad hominem insult without knowing the facts.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dair said:

    Indigo said:

    Dair said:


    Then you will know that the HMRC will appeal where it loses, will persist to the end and all your costs are likely to be unrecoverable even if you are one of the lucky ones that win. Perhaps the stringency of your argument is based more on personal slight at being pursued by HMRC rather than any genuine analysis of Tax Avoidance.

    HMRC's record for winning cases isn't that great.
    Wouldn't claim it was really. But the point I was trying to make was that Tax Avoidance is completely difference to Tax Efficiency (using the as intended legislative tax reduction schemes).

    Cyclefree is arguing they are the same because they are both legal when in reality the risk is quite different for the two classes of tax reduction.
    HMRC are so bad they are the only outfit to lose to Rangers in recent times..
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Smarmeron said:

    You pays your money, you takes your choice.

    "Miliband is likely to be very specific in what he repeats. In the Commons he referred to tax avoidance, not evasion, and did not describe Lord Fink directly as a dodgy donor. Tax avoidance is legal but deprives the Treasury of income."

    Let's hope some journalist asks: "So, Mr. Miliband, for the avoidance of doubt, would you care to confirm that you were not in any way suggesting that Lord Fink is a 'dodgy donor? "

    and a follow-up question:

    "In that case, Mr Miliband, why did you mention Lord Fink at all?"

    [It also beggars belief that anyone is defending Ed. He is showing himself unfit to be an MP, let alone PM]
    What if the Miliband tax issue (eek, nearly wrote "dodge" wouldn't want Eddie suing) really blows up and dominates the press?

    Imagine it became so big that Miliband was forced to resign and Labour somehow came up with a credible leader. I mean, surely they have one somewhere in their ranks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    Smarmeron said:

    You pays your money, you takes your choice.

    "Miliband is likely to be very specific in what he repeats. In the Commons he referred to tax avoidance, not evasion, and did not describe Lord Fink directly as a dodgy donor. Tax avoidance is legal but deprives the Treasury of income."

    Let's hope some journalist asks: "So, Mr. Miliband, for the avoidance of doubt, would you care to confirm that you were not in any way suggesting that Lord Fink is a 'dodgy donor? "

    and a follow-up question:

    "In that case, Mr Miliband, why did you mention Lord Fink at all?"

    [It also beggars belief that anyone is defending Ed. He is showing himself unfit to be an MP, let alone PM]
    There's definitely blood in the water now on this.... If Lord Fink isn't the dodgy donor he was referring to - then who is?

    By teatime, Labour will be trying to tell us that Hansard has it wrong, and Ed was ACTUALLY referring to a dodgy donner kebab he had when out with Gareth...
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    philiph said:

    why was it made in shares?

    Tax amelioration?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    You pays your money, you takes your choice.

    "Miliband is likely to be very specific in what he repeats. In the Commons he referred to tax avoidance, not evasion, and did not describe Lord Fink directly as a dodgy donor. Tax avoidance is legal but deprives the Treasury of income."

    Let's hope some journalist asks: "So, Mr. Miliband, for the avoidance of doubt, would you care to confirm that you were not in any way suggesting that Lord Fink is a 'dodgy donor? "

    and a follow-up question:

    "In that case, Mr Miliband, why did you mention Lord Fink at all?"

    [It also beggars belief that anyone is defending Ed. He is showing himself unfit to be an MP, let alone PM]
    What if the Miliband tax issue (eek, nearly wrote "dodge" wouldn't want Eddie suing) really blows up and dominates the press?

    Imagine it became so big that Miliband was forced to resign and Labour somehow came up with a credible leader. I mean, surely they have one somewhere in their ranks.
    They only have one, and he doesn't want the job !!!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Cyclefree said:

    Dair said:

    Then you will know that the HMRC will appeal where it loses, will persist to the end and all your costs are likely to be unrecoverable even if you are one of the lucky ones that win. Perhaps the stringency of your argument is based more on personal slight at being pursued by HMRC rather than any genuine analysis of Tax Avoidance.

    Not me personally. I am involved in this in a professional capacity.

    Still nice to see that your response was to level an ad hominem insult without knowing the facts.
    Personal slight or personal interest, it's the same effect. Your interest blinds you to the reality. Tax Avoidance is not anything like Tax Efficiency as while both are legal, one can have quite significant consequences.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    If Labour was lead by Alan Johnson, Conservatives by Dan Hannan, UKIP by Douglas Carswell, Lib Dems by Tim Farron (We'll keep Sturgeon in as SNP leader - she's genuinely better than Salmond...) what would the polling be like now ?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Pulpstar
    Much the same as it is now? Clouded and confused.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    And I got it wrong yesterday. I thought Ed's PMQs was wrongly targetted. I should have listened to OGH.

    The "dodgy PM backed by dodgy donors" has really hit its target. Smoke pouring from the Tory bunker today.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited February 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @Pulpstar
    Much the same as it is now? Clouded and confused.

    They'd probably all cancel each other out to be fair.

    Party members would all possibly be happier though (Farage is on huge ratings with kippers though so they're fine with him)
    ~
    Johnson for Miliband would be the biggest effect and then Farron for Clegg methinks.
  • Pulpstar said:

    If Labour was lead by Alan Johnson, Conservatives by Dan Hannan, UKIP by Douglas Carswell, Lib Dems by Tim Farron (We'll keep Sturgeon in as SNP leader - she's genuinely better than Salmond...) what would the polling be like now ?

    LAB=
    CON -
    LD +
    UKIP -

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    A few Budgets back Osborne sought to close the loopholes whereby rich people used charitable giving to reduce their tax bill with little apparent benefit to charities. The noise from those complaining - including the Labour party - was deafening. And Osborne, wrongly in my view, backed down.

    Funny how all the concern now being expressed by Labour at tax avoidance and artificial schemes and rich people not paying their fair share etc etc did not apply to them. Labour were desperate to defend rich people using tax avoidance schemes then.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Dair said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Dair said:

    Then you will know that the HMRC will appeal where it loses, will persist to the end and all your costs are likely to be unrecoverable even if you are one of the lucky ones that win. Perhaps the stringency of your argument is based more on personal slight at being pursued by HMRC rather than any genuine analysis of Tax Avoidance.

    Not me personally. I am involved in this in a professional capacity.

    Still nice to see that your response was to level an ad hominem insult without knowing the facts.
    Personal slight or personal interest, it's the same effect. Your interest blinds you to the reality. Tax Avoidance is not anything like Tax Efficiency as while both are legal, one can have quite significant consequences.
    Are you a tax lawyer of any standing ?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706

    JackW said:

    One of the weaknesses of PB within a political institution that is of course a naughty indulgence for us all is that OGH's mighty organ has a tendency to go all weak at the knees over a single opinion poll that it must be said has been shamelessly hyped and is frankly drearily within the margin of error.

    For the want of doubt let PB be clear and being mindful of PBers bank balances, Swiss or not, that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

    Jack

    I don't wish to cast doubt on your sound judgement, nor the quality output from your ARSE and other organs, but supposing - purely hypothetically - that by some extraordinary perverse quirk of fate this country does end up with Ed as Prime Minister.....to which country will you be emigrating?


    Surely Switzerland.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    One of the weaknesses of PB within a political institution that is of course a naughty indulgence for us all is that OGH's mighty organ has a tendency to go all weak at the knees over a single opinion poll that it must be said has been shamelessly hyped and is frankly drearily within the margin of error.

    For the want of doubt let PB be clear and being mindful of PBers bank balances, Swiss or not, that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

    What was your prediction for the referendum, Yes @ 41%+/-1.5% with a certainty of 90-95% was it ?
    The result was an outlier. :smiley:

    For over 2 years I was advising PB that YES would not win and the scale of the defeat was the only matter in question. I also advised early on that turnout would exceed 80% and my final projection, one month out, was 85%.

    If I had stayed on PB to polling day the projection would have moved to around 56/44 - not too shabby but still 2 points out.

    My success at GE's here and in the US is unparalleled in the history of mankind - I am of course TOTY and have been since 2010. :smile:

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    JackW said:

    One of the weaknesses of PB within a political institution that is of course a naughty indulgence for us all is that OGH's mighty organ has a tendency to go all weak at the knees over a single opinion poll that it must be said has been shamelessly hyped and is frankly drearily within the margin of error.

    For the want of doubt let PB be clear and being mindful of PBers bank balances, Swiss or not, that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

    Jack

    I don't wish to cast doubt on your sound judgement, nor the quality output from your ARSE and other organs, but supposing - purely hypothetically - that by some extraordinary perverse quirk of fate this country does end up with Ed as Prime Minister.....to which country will you be emigrating?


    If Ed is Prime Minister, then it will surely only be a matter of months before an independent Scotland is an option?

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    I believe* that "corker" came from the concept of closing the matter down (i.e. putting the cork in bottle). Eg such an amazing argument that it wins hands down.

    I don't see how this poll comes anywhere close to that. Unless it refers to the LibDem position - and how it shows it's all over for them?

    The Ipsos headline is "LDs at lowest level of support since 1990"

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3527/Liberal-Democrats-at-lowest-level-of-support-since-1990.aspx
  • This poll can't be true. Labour have a pink van.
  • Jonathan said:

    JackW said:

    One of the weaknesses of PB within a political institution that is of course a naughty indulgence for us all is that OGH's mighty organ has a tendency to go all weak at the knees over a single opinion poll that it must be said has been shamelessly hyped and is frankly drearily within the margin of error.

    For the want of doubt let PB be clear and being mindful of PBers bank balances, Swiss or not, that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

    Jack

    I don't wish to cast doubt on your sound judgement, nor the quality output from your ARSE and other organs, but supposing - purely hypothetically - that by some extraordinary perverse quirk of fate this country does end up with Ed as Prime Minister.....to which country will you be emigrating?


    Surely Switzerland.
    I'd follow him anywhere, except Scotland.
  • I'm claiming a moral victory over Tissue Price.

    How do I BACS that to you?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    One of the weaknesses of PB within a political institution that is of course a naughty indulgence for us all is that OGH's mighty organ has a tendency to go all weak at the knees over a single opinion poll that it must be said has been shamelessly hyped and is frankly drearily within the margin of error.

    For the want of doubt let PB be clear and being mindful of PBers bank balances, Swiss or not, that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

    What was your prediction for the referendum, Yes @ 41%+/-1.5% with a certainty of 90-95% was it ?
    The result was an outlier. :smiley:

    For over 2 years I was advising PB that YES would not win and the scale of the defeat was the only matter in question. I also advised early on that turnout would exceed 80% and my final projection, one month out, was 85%.

    If I had stayed on PB to polling day the projection would have moved to around 56/44 - not too shabby but still 2 points out.

    My success at GE's here and in the US is unparalleled in the history of mankind - I am of course TOTY and have been since 2010. :smile:

    You'll need some good tips to retain that title this year.

    Got any ?

    @Antifrank and @Peterthepunter are in a clear lead right now.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    One of the weaknesses of PB within a political institution that is of course a naughty indulgence for us all is that OGH's mighty organ has a tendency to go all weak at the knees over a single opinion poll that it must be said has been shamelessly hyped and is frankly drearily within the margin of error.

    For the want of doubt let PB be clear and being mindful of PBers bank balances, Swiss or not, that :

    Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

    Jack

    I don't wish to cast doubt on your sound judgement, nor the quality output from your ARSE and other organs, but supposing - purely hypothetically - that by some extraordinary perverse quirk of fate this country does end up with Ed as Prime Minister.....to which country will you be emigrating?


    The sound of cuckoo clocks beckons :smile:

  • Blimey some Tory donor is offering big money for anyone wanting to back Lab most seats or lays tory most seats on Betfair.... 10k and 8k available!

    GE 2015 betting starting to get serious!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Dair said:

    Smarmeron said:

    You pays your money, you takes your choice.

    "Miliband is likely to be very specific in what he repeats. In the Commons he referred to tax avoidance, not evasion, and did not describe Lord Fink directly as a dodgy donor. Tax avoidance is legal but deprives the Treasury of income."

    Let's hope some journalist asks: "So, Mr. Miliband, for the avoidance of doubt, would you care to confirm that you were not in any way suggesting that Lord Fink is a 'dodgy donor? "

    and a follow-up question:

    "In that case, Mr Miliband, why did you mention Lord Fink at all?"

    [It also beggars belief that anyone is defending Ed. He is showing himself unfit to be an MP, let alone PM]
    What if the Miliband tax issue (eek, nearly wrote "dodge" wouldn't want Eddie suing) really blows up and dominates the press?

    Imagine it became so big that Miliband was forced to resign and Labour somehow came up with a credible leader. I mean, surely they have one somewhere in their ranks.
    Having a rich tory donor trying to sue EdM during the campaign would do wonders for his poll ratings.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Pulpstar said:

    If Labour was lead by Alan Johnson, Conservatives by Dan Hannan, UKIP by Douglas Carswell, Lib Dems by Tim Farron (We'll keep Sturgeon in as SNP leader - she's genuinely better than Salmond...) what would the polling be like now ?

    That would depend when they took over. Farron would have left the Coalition the same day he was elected. Carswell would have rejoined a Tory Party under Dan Hannon, as would most of UKIP. LibDems and Labour would be scrapping over the same body of voters.

    If the Greens changed to a leader who wasn't bat-shit crazy, that might shake things up too....
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JackW
    When you post the results of your arse, have you ever considered using a pie chart to illustrate them?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tory lead in all age categories from 35+ and in all social categories except DE.

This discussion has been closed.