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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP drop into single figures, LDs 6% as LAB move to 36% in
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP drop into single figures, LDs 6% as LAB move to 36% in this month’s Ipsos-MORI poll
UKIP drop to single figures in this month's @IpsosMORI poll
LAB 36% (+2)
Con 34 (+1)
UKIP 9 (-2)
Green 7 (-1)
LD 6 (-2) …..
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Must be stonking for Labour.
Terrible for the LD's. Might hit single figure seats even on that. Pretty dire for UKIP too in light of expectations.
Otherwise a bit of a dull poll. It's shaping up for a slug out between tories and labour. Maybe that shouldn't surprise us. LDs are the casualties, leaving two main parties.
And the SNP holding the cards?
In a coalition it is the little party that gets smashed at the polls.
Still, I suppose it means there's a chance he'll be able to run a 'Major parties collapse as election approaches' story next month.
They only compete for 8% of the votes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31433665
So life imitates art. The Ukraine-Russia ceasefire deal feels a lot like the Federation-Cardassian treaty, one side will stick to it and force their people to do so and the other will brazenly break it and continue to ship weapons into the ceasefire zone.
There is no compromise with warlords like Putin, we can only defeat them, this is going to end badly.
Murphy's taken the hint and he's gone AWOL. Not on TV for two days, two tweets since Tuesday, one on football, one on Mandela anniversary. He's given up.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/support-for-lib-dems-slumps-to-its-lowest-level-in-a-quarter-of-a-century-poll-shows-10041104.html
Nah.....what was I thinking....
A simple average of this week's polls gives Labour 33.7%, Conservative 33.3%, UKIP 13.3%. That is a shift back to the big two, but less dramatic than MORI's numbers suggest.
On the flip side the Con gain Twickenham bet looks inspired.
Less good for my 1-10 seat losses to to the Conservatives.
Papers do love to believe their own hype.
Half of voters say they may change their mind about their vote, but, significantly, this is highest among current Lib-Dem supporters, at 62 per cent. Only 35 per cent of Lib-Dems say they have “definitely decided” to back Mr Clegg’s party.
I may be old-fashioned but I rather like the idea of the rule of law. The law gets made. You comply with it. And you have the certainty of knowing that having complied with the law you are not going to be pursued by the state just because it doesn't like you - for some other reason - in an arbitrary, capricious or even malicious manner.
The barons felt a bit like this when they forced Magna Carta on King John 800 years ago.
Judging by some of the comments Labour seem to think that caprice and ad hominem insults rather than the law are a good basis for government. This is a fundamentally and dangerously unserious position for Labour to take. Aren't there any grown-ups left in it?
Overall, though, I don't think this poll lives up to MORI's hype.
In recent days, I have found the Conservative vote decidedly soft, but people are certain to vote. Strange, innit? Not necessarily going to UKIP, but they are pretty sure they are not going to vote Tory this time.
Just anecdotal, of course.
Evens? Why wouyld I gamble with you when I can play proper markets for same odds. You'll have to do better than that to tempt me.
Mike Smithson said it was probably hyped. Too right!
You can't play the real markets for the same odds, tories are best price 5/6, so I am doing better than that
Mr. Vale, perhaps, but much of their rise was under the radar as well.
As an aside I am wondering if the FTPA is going to result in reduced turnout as voters get sick to the teeth of politics after 3-4 months of mudslinging and abuse.
"I have the SNP dog in this race, but the implied SNP score in this Mori is at least 5% (Are Plaid on 2% ?) so it means that, on this Mori at least Labour are well behind in Scotland."
How do you find that out?
Of course that plays into my own personal hopes as well so is probably heart ruling head.
Emails won't prove or disprove anything, I doubt 'her' name was Audrey...
True.
Right gtg.
Overall, this poll gives a big combined left-wing vote share of 50%, (Labour, Green, Nationalist) and a correspondingly low right-wing vote share of 43%, compared to an average of about 45/47% respectively.
Just had a call from Toyota announcing their new hydrogen powered car - available in the autumn with a range of 300miles. Only emission is water vapour.
If it's two horse race for PM, which it is and always has been, any seat the other doesn't win is a gain... if labour can't win Thanet, they'll be attacking tories not ukip
LDs should have dumped him.
That's the beauty of Hydrogen Fuel Cell. As they said on Top Gear, "it's the car of the future, because it works just like the car of today".
Ramping by IPSOS-Mori.
I'm not especially old (indeed, towards the young end of the pb spectrum), but when I was a kid we didn't even have mobile phones (except yuppies, who were roundly mocked). Now we have computer glasses in development, VR is on the way, TVs that can record your conversations, e-readers which are basically the hand-held pads from Star Trek: The Next Generation, internet-connected fridges etc etc.
It's incredibly impressive, but the social upheaval (most obvious in the internet harming the high street) could be tumultuous due to the rate of change.
Just on the cars: could we have hydrogen powered trains? Or even hydrogen power stations?
Once the production of Hydrogen from algae is perfected and this takes over from the cracking process, it will solve most of the worlds energy issues.