"FFS -im on a train so cant prune the thread properly, but guven it seems to impossible for any discussion of scottish politics not to devolve into partisan squabbling within about two comments can we go back to limiting Scottish discussion to Scottish threads. There should be a couple in the next couple of days."
Kipper alert! The EU backs the current Ukraine regime. Kippers hate the EU. Therefore kippers support Putin's Mafia State. Watch what goes into your tea!
Farage said how much he admired Putin in the EU election debate.
The day Farage cowers in the face of mainstream media and political class hectoring and manufactures outrage over 'Putin' (they don't get a surname when we're really cross with them), and his 'regime' (they become 'regimes' as opposed to 'governments' when we would prefer someone else to be in power) is the day he becomes utterly pointless.
UKIP could do with some greenery - not slag off the greens as Paterson does. Stop GMOs. Glyphosate/Roundup. Shale gas/fracking. Get with the people. Get in the game. Stop the slaughter.
The Labour Party will narrowly win more seats than the Conservatives – and the Liberal Democrats will be saved from wipe out by the first-past-the-post system, according to a new electoral forecast by Prof Paul Whiteley at the University of Essex, co-director of the British Election Study from 2001 to 2012.
Whiteley’s forecast, based on mathematical modelling, focuses on what happened to seats in previous election rather than the overall share of the vote and is based on a model developed while the British Election Study was based at Essex. This model successfully predicted the outcomes of the 2005 and 2010 general elections.
The Labour Party will narrowly win more seats than the Conservatives – and the Liberal Democrats will be saved from wipe out by the first-past-the-post system, according to a new electoral forecast by Prof Paul Whiteley at the University of Essex, co-director of the British Election Study from 2001 to 2012.
Whiteley’s forecast, based on mathematical modelling, focuses on what happened to seats in previous election rather than the overall share of the vote and is based on a model developed while the British Election Study was based at Essex. This model successfully predicted the outcomes of the 2005 and 2010 general elections.
Audrey was telling me off this morning for assuming that the Lib Dems would win a few more seats than the UNS was indicating but 48! That is ridiculous.
As is 30 others by the way. 18 NI leaves 12 others for the SNP (currently 6), PC, the Greens and UKIP. Frankly absurd.
Am I the only one surprised we haven't seen a bit of a move back towards Labour in the betting markets over the last couple of days?
Around last Wed, Con position was looking very positive - they had led in four polls in a row (albeit by only 1%).
Since then we have had two polls with a Lab lead of 3%, two with a Lab lead of 1% and three ties. So it does look as if Lab is still ahead by about 1% which is really no change compared to the last three months (except for the very brief blip up in the Lab lead just before Christmas).
Yet the betting markets have moved significantly to Con over the last three months.
I think Tory punters feel the market OUGHT to be moving to them, so every random twitch has them hurrying to Betfair.
The Tories are, it seems to me, confusing what they want to be true with what they think is happening. There is nothing to suggest that voters are turning back to or towards the Tories. Their leads have been tiny and have not lasted long. None of the polls show them winning an outright majority.
Quite - I can see no evidence for the confidence that is occasionally displayed, only suppositions a lot more tenuous than the suppositions supporting other predictions. That doesn't mean they might not be correct, but it seems highly improbable.
The day Farage cowers in the face of mainstream media and political class hectoring and manufactures outrage over 'Putin' (they don't get a surname when we're really cross with them), and his 'regime' (they become 'regimes' as opposed to 'governments' when we would prefer someone else to be in power) is the day he becomes utterly pointless.
Yes, the mainstream media and political class (which let us not kid ourselves, UKIP are now a part of the latter as much as anyone else) are never right about anything.
Am I the only one surprised we haven't seen a bit of a move back toward Labour in the betting markets over the last couple of days?
Around last Wed, Con position was looking very positive - they had led in four polls in a row (albeit by only 1%).
Since then we have had two polls with a Lab lead of 3%, two with a Lab lad of 1% and three ties. So it does look as if Lab is still ahead by about 1% which is really no change compared to the last three months (except for the very brief blip up in the Lab lead just before Christmas).
Yet the betting markets have moved significantly to Con over the last three months.
Proud I have layed Cameron as short as 1.63 and backed EICIPM at 2.5.
If i cant make a profit from that i deserve a good kicking!!
Realises what i just said and hopes N4E isnt home yet.
LOL, I'm watching from afar!
Good luck with those bets BJO, I think it is too close to call and will follow some constituency bets instead of the outrights, good luck though.
Thanks only small money on at those prices for me.
On the other hand if EICIPM does not win and or Lab does not get most seats, I could be in divorce scale lossses if Mrs BJ finds out. Or as i call it no lose territory!!
Good luck with your constituency bets too.
"EICIPM does not win and or Lab does not get most seats" Despite Scotland creating some wrong winner scenarios, those are still reasonably related contingencies
I know but as you said EICIPM is better odds so switched quite a lot to that
Am I the only one surprised we haven't seen a bit of a move back toward Labour in the betting markets over the last couple of days?
Nope.
My algorithm work has required me to spend time on 3 decades of polling data. I've discovered things I either never knew or have forgotten. Some of the stats are remarkable. I'll reveal more at the end of the week but the punters are right not to back Labour. (NB that doesn't mean I'm saying Cons will win: just Labour from here would not win based on 30 years' form.)
I thought you'd been saying for some time now that the Cons would win and with a clear lead - 8% I seem to recall.
There is no precedent that's relevant to the current political situation and ALL polling data pre-GE2015 election should be discarded because, apart from ICM, polling didn't operate bearing any relationship at all to today's methodologies.
I'm sure Audreyanne will take your points on board, Mike!
Kipper alert! The EU backs the current Ukraine regime. Kippers hate the EU. Therefore kippers support Putin's Mafia State. Watch what goes into your tea!
Farage said how much he admired Putin in the EU election debate.
He also criticised him for locking up journalists.
But is there not a quantum uncertainty effect likely to happen here. Actually speculating on a possibility, the observation, of something happening will create uncertainty of it actually happening.
Or perhaps it should be dubbed the manhole cover effect. Generally speaking people do not fall down open manholes - they see them coming. So this speculation by its existence might be avoided by those with their eyes open and with fears about what lies beyond the dark open aperture. A lot of those wide apprehensive eyes would no doubt be in England.
UKIP could do with some greenery - not slag off the greens as Paterson does. Stop GMOs. Glyphosate/Roundup. Shale gas/fracking. Get with the people. Get in the game. Stop the slaughter.
"Mr Varoufakis said the government would maintain a primary budget surplus — after interest payments — of 1 to 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product, even if this meant Syriza, the leftwing party that dominates the ruling coalition, would not fulfil all the public spending promises on which it was elected."
But is there not a quantum uncertainty effect likely to happen here. Actually speculating on a possibility, the observation, of something happening will create uncertainty of it actually happening.
Or perhaps it should be dubbed the manhole cover effect. Generally speaking people do not fall down open manholes - they see them coming. So this speculation by its existence might be avoided by those with their eyes open and with fears about what lies beyond the dark open aperture. A lot of those wide apprehensive eyes would no doubt be in England.
The Scottish results usually start to come in early on the night...
It is quicker to count the votes in constituencies where there are fewer registered electors and lower turnouts. What might be called 'rotten' boroughs.
Scottish seats will come in earlier because there are no local elections in Scotland this May . London seats will be much earlier than in 2010 because again there are no local elections whereas there were in 2010 .
These two regions will probably show the most divergent swings in the UK.
The Scottish results will mark the end and sharp reversal of a 60 year trend, at least of Con relative to Labour.
Am I the only one surprised we haven't seen a bit of a move back towards Labour in the betting markets over the last couple of days?
Around last Wed, Con position was looking very positive - they had led in four polls in a row (albeit by only 1%).
Since then we have had two polls with a Lab lead of 3%, two with a Lab lead of 1% and three ties. So it does look as if Lab is still ahead by about 1% which is really no change compared to the last three months (except for the very brief blip up in the Lab lead just before Christmas).
Yet the betting markets have moved significantly to Con over the last three months.
This is what the polling figures have been doing for some months. Moving towards a Tory lead and then edging back towards Labour, and repeating. The net result is still towards the Tories, but it isn't linear.
Yes, the mainstream media and political class (which let us not kid ourselves, UKIP are now a part of the latter as much as anyone else) are never right about anything.
Like the Russian mainstream media and political class, or the Iranian mainstream media and political class, they are often right, when right conforms to their agenda. The Russians are right when they point out American racial strife and disgraceful military adventures, the Americans (and by extension our own media) are right when they point out Russian authoritarian legal moves, but what none of these outlets are is neutral and uncoloured by a political agenda.
Therefore the individual has to be able to spot baloney. And this ridiculous Dick Dastardly cartoon character with an itchy invade finger they have made out of Putin is grade A baloney. Someone who ACTUALLY ruled a horrible regime recently died - we flew the flag at Westminster Abbey half mast for him.
Am I the only one surprised we haven't seen a bit of a move back toward Labour in the betting markets over the last couple of days?
Nope.
My algorithm work has required me to spend time on 3 decades of polling data. I've discovered things I either never knew or have forgotten. Some of the stats are remarkable. I'll reveal more at the end of the week but the punters are right not to back Labour. (NB that doesn't mean I'm saying Cons will win: just Labour from here would not win based on 30 years' form.)
I thought you'd been saying for some time now that the Cons would win and with a clear lead - 8% I seem to recall.
There is no precedent that's relevant to the current political situation and ALL polling data pre-GE2015 election should be discarded because, apart from ICM, polling didn't operate bearing any relationship at all to today's methodologies.
What a crock of shit.
Mike the cherry picker because the yellows are suffering.
And you've no idea what data I'm working with over the past 30 years. Still, if it makes you happy to keep your head in the sand Mike, then be my guest. You've been wrong most of this parliament.
Am I the only one surprised we haven't seen a bit of a move back toward Labour in the betting markets over the last couple of days?
Nope.
My algorithm work has required me to spend time on 3 decades of polling data. I've discovered things I either never knew or have forgotten. Some of the stats are remarkable. I'll reveal more at the end of the week but the punters are right not to back Labour. (NB that doesn't mean I'm saying Cons will win: just Labour from here would not win based on 30 years' form.)
I thought you'd been saying for some time now that the Cons would win and with a clear lead - 8% I seem to recall.
There is no precedent that's relevant to the current political situation and ALL polling data pre-GE2015 election should be discarded because, apart from ICM, polling didn't operate bearing any relationship at all to today's methodologies.
What a crock of shit.
Mike the cherry picker because the yellows are suffering.
We've yet to see what analytical miracles you will produce.
The Scottish results usually start to come in early on the night...
It is quicker to count the votes in constituencies where there are fewer registered electors and lower turnouts. What might be called 'rotten' boroughs.
The main thing slowing things down is if local election ballots have to be separated from the general election papers. This year there're once again going to be local elections in most of England apart from London.
audreyanne: was my 2010 running totals spreadsheet to your satisfaction? I know that an improvement would be if it had times included, for example every 30 or 15 mins.
audreyanne: was my 2010 running totals spreadsheet to your satisfaction? I know that an improvement would be if it had times included, for example every 30 or 15 mins.
So sorry, I've been off the board and then had to hand-bag Mike.
Regarding election night, I have spreadsheets prepared showing how the results came in for every election from Oct 1974 to 2010 with all the juicy details: running totals, running percentage change, running swing, etc.
Where where? Sounds great, please share location?
& thank you!
Most of them aren't public yet. I can give you a link to the 2010 spreadsheet if you like...
Perhaps when you're ready with everything nearer the time? I don't want to rush or hassle you. It sounds brilliant.
The Scottish results usually start to come in early on the night...
It is quicker to count the votes in constituencies where there are fewer registered electors and lower turnouts. What might be called 'rotten' boroughs.
The main thing slowing things down is if local election ballots have to be separated from the general election papers. This year there're once again going to be local elections in most of England apart from London.
I wonder if anyone has done any research on whether the presence of local elections affects GE votes? For example, I might vote UKIP in the local elections, does this make me less or more likely to vote my usual Tory in the GE?
Am I the only one surprised we haven't seen a bit of a move back toward Labour in the betting markets over the last couple of days?
Nope.
My algorithm work has required me to spend time on 3 decades of polling data. I've discovered things I either never knew or have forgotten. Some of the stats are remarkable. I'll reveal more at the end of the week but the punters are right not to back Labour. (NB that doesn't mean I'm saying Cons will win: just Labour from here would not win based on 30 years' form.)
I thought you'd been saying for some time now that the Cons would win and with a clear lead - 8% I seem to recall.
There is no precedent that's relevant to the current political situation and ALL polling data pre-GE2015 election should be discarded because, apart from ICM, polling didn't operate bearing any relationship at all to today's methodologies.
What a crock of shit.
Mike the cherry picker because the yellows are suffering.
And you've no idea what data I'm working with over the past 30 years. Still, if it makes you happy to keep your head in the sand Mike, then be my guest. You've been wrong most of this parliament.
I generally don't hold back with robust language on here, but I think we should all remember that we're all effectively guests in Mike's house, so it might be worth being a little bit politer to our host.
The Scottish results usually start to come in early on the night...
It is quicker to count the votes in constituencies where there are fewer registered electors and lower turnouts. What might be called 'rotten' boroughs.
The main thing slowing things down is if local election ballots have to be separated from the general election papers. This year there're once again going to be local elections in most of England apart from London.
I wonder if anyone has done any research on whether the presence of local elections affects GE votes? For example, I might vote UKIP in the local elections, does this make me less or more likely to vote my usual Tory in the GE?
The Scottish results usually start to come in early on the night...
I wonder if anyone has done any research on whether the presence of local elections affects GE votes? For example, I might vote UKIP in the local elections, does this make me less or more likely to vote my usual Tory in the GE?
The Scottish results usually start to come in early on the night...
I
I wonder if anyone has done any research on whether the presence of local elections affects GE votes? For example, I might vote UKIP in the local elections, does this make me less or more likely to vote my usual Tory in the GE?
The Scottish results usually start to come in early on the night...
It is quicker to count the votes in constituencies where there are fewer registered electors and lower turnouts. What might be called 'rotten' boroughs.
The main thing slowing things down is if local election ballots have to be separated from the general election papers. This year there're once again going to be local elections in most of England apart from London.
I wonder if anyone has done any research on whether the presence of local elections affects GE votes? For example, I might vote UKIP in the local elections, does this make me less or more likely to vote my usual Tory in the GE?
Am I the only one surprised we haven't seen a bit of a move back toward Labour in the betting markets over the last couple of days?
Nope.
My algorithm work has required me to spend time on 3 decades of polling data. I've discovered things I either never knew or have forgotten. Some of the stats are remarkable. I'll reveal more at the end of the week but the punters are right not to back Labour. (NB that doesn't mean I'm saying Cons will win: just Labour from here would not win based on 30 years' form.)
I thought you'd been saying for some time now that the Cons would win and with a clear lead - 8% I seem to recall.
There is no precedent that's relevant to the current political situation and ALL polling data pre-GE2015 election should be discarded because, apart from ICM, polling didn't operate bearing any relationship at all to today's methodologies.
What a crock of shit.
Mike the cherry picker because the yellows are suffering.
And you've no idea what data I'm working with over the past 30 years. Still, if it makes you happy to keep your head in the sand Mike, then be my guest. You've been wrong most of this parliament.
I generally don't hold back with robust language on here, but I think we should all remember that we're all effectively guests in Mike's house, so it might be worth being a little bit politer to our host.
Nah. It's not a peep show but a public forum and unless he's philistine he won't mind a bit of robust debate. He has no idea what data I've been working on and it's the first I've heard that all previous polling prior to 2010 is no longer relevant or admissible. Talk about moving goalposts and cherry picking. So I had a swing of my handbag. I do love this site very much but at its best when everyone's open to scrutiny.
It's going to be one of the most interesting GE campaigns of my life I think.
Nah. It's not a peep show but a public forum and unless he's philistine he won't mind a bit of robust debate. He has no idea what data I've been working on and it's the first I've heard that all previous polling prior to 2010 is no longer relevant or admissible. Talk about moving goalposts and cherry picking. I do love this site very much but at its best when everyone's open to scrutiny.
It's going to be one of the most interesting GE campaigns of my life I think.
It's more a public house than the town common, and Mike is the landlord.
Am I the only one surprised we haven't seen a bit of a move back toward Labour in the betting markets over the last couple of days?
Nope.
My algorithm work has required me to spend time on 3 decades of polling data. I've discovered things I either never knew or have forgotten. Some of the stats are remarkable. I'll reveal more at the end of the week but the punters are right not to back Labour. (NB that doesn't mean I'm saying Cons will win: just Labour from here would not win based on 30 years' form.)
I thought you'd been saying for some time now that the Cons would win and with a clear lead - 8% I seem to recall.
There is no precedent that's relevant to the current political situation and ALL polling data pre-GE2015 election should be discarded because, apart from ICM, polling didn't operate bearing any relationship at all to today's methodologies.
What a crock of shit.
Mike the cherry picker because the yellows are suffering.
And you've no idea what data I'm working with over the past 30 years. Still, if it makes you happy to keep your head in the sand Mike, then be my guest. You've been wrong most of this parliament.
I generally don't hold back with robust language on here, but I think we should all remember that we're all effectively guests in Mike's house, so it might be worth being a little bit politer to our host.
Nah. It's not a peep show but a public forum and unless he's philistine he won't mind a bit of robust debate. He has no idea what data I've been working on and it's the first I've heard that all previous polling prior to 2010 is no longer relevant or admissible. Talk about moving goalposts and cherry picking. So I had a swing of my handbag. I do love this site very much but at its best when everyone's open to scrutiny.
It's going to be one of the most interesting GE campaigns of my life I think.
Because it is like no other? Different dynamics of insurgent parties and coalition government. Exit from severe recession and long single party rule. Media changes with digital evolution.
Yup, hard to relate polling now to any previous election. There is no certainty that any methodology it's accurate.
I wonder if anyone has done any research on whether the presence of local elections affects GE votes? For example, I might vote UKIP in the local elections, does this make me less or more likely to vote my usual Tory in the GE?
Although you may be suggesting the inverse. If you vote one way locally will that make you likely to vote the same 'nationally.'
I'm not sure that is the same thing. Politics in the UK has historically been fairly tribal, with some swing voters in the middle but still choosing between mainstream parties. People seem to now be more likely to consider voting different ways in different elections - qv recent local and European elections. More people will vote UKIP in Euro elections or (until recently) LibDem in local elections than would in Westminster elections.
So if there is a Tory/Kipper waverer who has already voted UKIP once in a local or Euro election I would say they are more likely to vote UKIP in the GE than a waverer who hasn't taken that psychological step yet. But what does a local election on the same day do? If the waverer starts thinking they will vote UKIP in the less important local election, does that push them further towards a UKIP GE vote? Or have they done their "rebelling" for the day and feel happier giving the Tories their vote in the GE?
Am I the only one surprised we haven't seen a bit of a move back toward Labour in the betting markets over the last couple of days?
I thought you'd been saying for some time now that the Cons would win and with a clear lead - 8% I seem to recall.
There is no precedent that's relevant to the current political situation and ALL polling data pre-GE2015 election should be discarded because, apart from ICM, polling didn't operate bearing any relationship at all to today's methodologies.
What a crock of shit.
Mike the cherry picker because the yellows are suffering.
And you've no idea what data I'm working with over the past 30 years. Still, if it makes you happy to keep your head in the sand Mike, then be my guest. You've been wrong most of this parliament.
I generally don't hold back with robust language on here, but I think we should all remember that we're all effectively guests in Mike's house, so it might be worth being a little bit politer to our host.
Nah. It's not a peep show but a public forum and unless he's philistine he won't mind a bit of robust debate. He has no idea what data I've been working on and it's the first I've heard that all previous polling prior to 2010 is no longer relevant or admissible. Talk about moving goalposts and cherry picking. So I had a swing of my handbag. I do love this site very much but at its best when everyone's open to scrutiny.
It's going to be one of the most interesting GE campaigns of my life I think.
Because it is like no other? Different dynamics of insurgent parties and coalition government. Exit from severe recession and long single party rule. Media changes with digital evolution.
It's so damned close! Then there's the demise of the LibDems: they're polling at their lowest this close since the Beatles were still together. And UKIP. And a bit of Green desire.
I wonder if anyone has done any research on whether the presence of local elections affects GE votes? For example, I might vote UKIP in the local elections, does this make me less or more likely to vote my usual Tory in the GE?
Although you may be suggesting the inverse. If you vote one way locally will that make you likely to vote the same 'nationally.'
I'm not sure that is the same thing. Politics in the UK has historically been fairly tribal, with some swing voters in the middle but still choosing between mainstream parties. People seem to now be more likely to consider voting different ways in different elections - qv recent local and European elections. More people will vote UKIP in Euro elections or (until recently) LibDem in local elections than would in Westminster elections.
So if there is a Tory/Kipper waverer who has already voted UKIP once in a local or Euro election I would say they are more likely to vote UKIP in the GE than a waverer who hasn't taken that psychological step yet. But what does a local election on the same day do? If the waverer starts thinking they will vote UKIP in the less important local election, does that push them further towards a UKIP GE vote? Or have they done their "rebelling" for the day and feel happier giving the Tories their vote in the GE?
I can't find the research at the moment, but when it was last looked at in the UK, there was no "split ticketing" in the UK.
All it did was boost turnout in council elections held on a General Election day.
The Scottish results usually start to come in early on the night...
It is quicker to count the votes in constituencies where there are fewer registered electors and lower turnouts. What might be called 'rotten' boroughs.
The main thing slowing things down is if local election ballots have to be separated from the general election papers. This year there're once again going to be local elections in most of England apart from London.
I wonder if anyone has done any research on whether the presence of local elections affects GE votes? For example, I might vote UKIP in the local elections, does this make me less or more likely to vote my usual Tory in the GE?
If there is a Coattail effect, I expect that it would help LDs in places where they have loads of councillors door knocking. Do Eastleigh or Sutton have local elections?
I presume you now accept hard crossover did not happen in January as you predicted despite your bullish Tweets a week ago.
In fact as at today Lab appear still slightly ahead?
Still bullish on the 90%+ chance of overall Con Maj?
We will only know in retrospect about crossover. It is not certain either way yet.
I report the L&N model output without comment, other than to mention some caveats.
Rod thanks for the reply
I dont understand why we do not know whether there was a January crossover. Aren't all January numbers now out or am i missing something?
Please can you explain? Sorry if I am being thick
Ideally, if the Samplemiser was still around, we'd have a better idea. Failing that, we could pool the polls over some reasonable moving timeframe (a week) and derive standard errors from the larger sample, then work out the probabilities the Tory lead is greater than 0. We could then say, for example, if the probability was >0.025 or <0.975 there would be a degree of uncertainty about who was ahead...
I wonder if anyone has done any research on whether the presence of local elections affects GE votes? For example, I might vote UKIP in the local elections, does this make me less or more likely to vote my usual Tory in the GE?
Although you may be suggesting the inverse. If you vote one way locally will that make you likely to vote the same 'nationally.'
I'm not sure that is the same thing. Politics in the UK has historically been fairly tribal, with some swing voters in the middle but still choosing between mainstream parties. People seem to now be more likely to consider voting different ways in different elections - qv recent local and European elections. More people will vote UKIP in Euro elections or (until recently) LibDem in local elections than would in Westminster elections.
So if there is a Tory/Kipper waverer who has already voted UKIP once in a local or Euro election I would say they are more likely to vote UKIP in the GE than a waverer who hasn't taken that psychological step yet. But what does a local election on the same day do? If the waverer starts thinking they will vote UKIP in the less important local election, does that push them further towards a UKIP GE vote? Or have they done their "rebelling" for the day and feel happier giving the Tories their vote in the GE?
I can't find the research at the moment, but when it was last looked at in the UK, there was no "split ticketing" in the UK.
All it did was boost turnout in council elections held on a General Election day.
"No split ticketing" seems quite a bold statement to make. I know that I tend to vote differently in local elections, as issues of civil liberties and macroeconomics are not really important at a local election but vitally so in national ones, am I really that unusual? Are you also saying that if a General and a European election took place on the same day, the results would be the same (and will the results of the local elections be the same as the Westminster ones in the same seats)?
Evening all and I see another academic has built himself up to potentially be a laughing stock on 8th May.
Rod if you are still around, what is your present thought on the election outcome?
I have not settled completely on a view yet, other than.
Lab maj - OUT Con maj - Possible Con most seats - Likely Lab net loss of seats - Possible
Thanks Rod, that says far more than most of the ivory towers academics who have been pontificating utter crap for several years.
I really wish all the polls published are adjusted to reflect their historical degree of inaccuracy. If Labour was truly leading in the polls, we wouldn't have the Shadow Cabinet rehearsing for Julius Caesar's final gathering of his closest friends.
Listening to Ed Bland today, he really doesn't understand the irony of him criticising people who engage in lawful tax avoidance when that is precisely what he and his family did to avoid inheritance tax on his father's estate.
And that's before you get to the extra money it brings in via taxes. Like Clinton before him, Obama is a great deficit hawk. We need another Democrat so we don't get another Reagan/Bush-style spending binge.
I wonder if anyone has done any research on whether the presence of local elections affects GE votes? For example, I might vote UKIP in the local elections, does this make me less or more likely to vote my usual Tory in the GE?
Although you may be suggesting the inverse. If you vote one way locally will that make you likely to vote the same 'nationally.'
I can't find the research at the moment, but when it was last looked at in the UK, there was no "split ticketing" in the UK.
All it did was boost turnout in council elections held on a General Election day.
"No split ticketing" seems quite a bold statement to make. I know that I tend to vote differently in local elections, as issues of civil liberties and macroeconomics are not really important at a local election but vitally so in national ones, am I really that unusual? Are you also saying that if a General and a European election took place on the same day, the results would be the same (and will the results of the local elections be the same as the Westminster ones in the same seats)?
I meant there's very little evidence for split ticketing with voters who have General Election days that have council elections.
I wouldn't like to speculate on the outcome of the European Elections held on the same day as a General Election.
As an aside the Scottish Parliament elections were meant to happen on the same day as this year's general election.
Evening all and I see another academic has built himself up to potentially be a laughing stock on 8th May.
Rod if you are still around, what is your present thought on the election outcome?
I have not settled completely on a view yet, other than.
Lab maj - OUT Con maj - Possible Con most seats - Likely Lab net loss of seats - Possible
Thanks Rod, that says far more than most of the ivory towers academics who have been pontificating utter crap for several years.
I really wish all the polls published are adjusted to reflect their historical degree of inaccuracy. If Labour was truly leading in the polls, we wouldn't have the Shadow Cabinet rehearsing for Julius Caesar's final gathering of his closest friends.
Listening to Ed Bland today, he really doesn't understand the irony of him criticising people who engage in lawful tax avoidance when that is precisely what he and his family did to avoid inheritance tax on his father's estate.
What about him and the mother of his child claiming two separate flats as each of their primary residences for the entire pregnancy and first eight months of his child's life?
Evening all and I see another academic has built himself up to potentially be a laughing stock on 8th May.
Rod if you are still around, what is your present thought on the election outcome?
I have not settled completely on a view yet, other than.
Lab maj - OUT Con maj - Possible Con most seats - Likely Lab net loss of seats - Possible
Thanks Rod, that says far more than most of the ivory towers academics who have been pontificating utter crap for several years.
I really wish all the polls published are adjusted to reflect their historical degree of inaccuracy. If Labour was truly leading in the polls, we wouldn't have the Shadow Cabinet rehearsing for Julius Caesar's final gathering of his closest friends. .
Yep I've found something that, to me, was quite extraordinary. Nothing to do with extrapolating past polling to today, but rather past polling to the subsequent GE. More anon, but I agree: Labour majority is OUT.
Evening all and I see another academic has built himself up to potentially be a laughing stock on 8th May.
Rod if you are still around, what is your present thought on the election outcome?
I have not settled completely on a view yet, other than.
Lab maj - OUT Con maj - Possible Con most seats - Likely Lab net loss of seats - Possible
Thanks Rod, that says far more than most of the ivory towers academics who have been pontificating utter crap for several years.
I really wish all the polls published are adjusted to reflect their historical degree of inaccuracy. If Labour was truly leading in the polls, we wouldn't have the Shadow Cabinet rehearsing for Julius Caesar's final gathering of his closest friends.
Listening to Ed Bland today, he really doesn't understand the irony of him criticising people who engage in lawful tax avoidance when that is precisely what he and his family did to avoid inheritance tax on his father's estate.
I don't like Miliband or Labour, but they didn't engage in tax avoidance, as I have pointed out ad nauseam.
They took advantage of Ralph's lawful tax allowance, by the lawful device of deed of variation.
No tax was in fact mitigated at the time, and may never be, as Mrs. Miliband has had 20 years to lawfully mitigate tax herself.
The manoeuvre they undertook has since been superceded by statue, in the 2008 Finance Act.
Just managed to catch up with Gordon Brown's speech in Edinburgh today. Is it just me or was that the biggest crock of shite? Vow++ Vow^2 Labour trying to be everything to everyman here... Not wanting to abandon the "shared benefits" of the union that they campaigned on during the referendum, they are left with the weak beer of additional powers to vary welfare - effectively Holyrood can lump in more cash, which won't cause any problems with the view of Scottish subsidy junkies. Add in the clusterfeck waiting to happen decoupling of housing benefit form universal credit, supposedly so they can Reverse The Bedroom Tax (tm).
All just comes across as back of the fag packet panic.
Is this really what Labour will stand on in Scotland?
I presume you now accept hard crossover did not happen in January as you predicted despite your bullish Tweets a week ago.
In fact as at today Lab appear still slightly ahead?
Still bullish on the 90%+ chance of overall Con Maj?
We will only know in retrospect about crossover. It is not certain either way yet.
I report the L&N model output without comment, other than to mention some caveats.
Rod thanks for the reply
I dont understand why we do not know whether there was a January crossover. Aren't all January numbers now out or am i missing something?
Please can you explain? Sorry if I am being thick
Ideally, if the Samplemiser was still around, we'd have a better idea. Failing that, we could pool the polls over some reasonable moving timeframe (a week) and derive standard errors from the larger sample, then work out the probabilities the Tory lead is greater than 0. We could then say, for example, if the probability was >0.025 or <0.975 there would be a degree of uncertainty about who was ahead...</p>
Time series and moving averages memories memories.
Bloody Hell and i have an applied statistics degree too, only a 2.2 though
Long time ago too mind.
Sheffield Poly. Herriot House. Funnily enough i do remember spending a lot of time in
...this ridiculous Dick Dastardly cartoon character with an itchy invade finger they have made out of Putin is grade A baloney...
Given Russian support of Abkhazia, South Ossettia, Crimea, the Front National, and his desire to remain in power by alternating President and Prime Minster, characterising Putin as a bit invadey is not necessarily a caricature.
Comments
"FFS -im on a train so cant prune the thread properly, but guven it seems to impossible for any discussion of scottish politics not to devolve into partisan squabbling within about two comments can we go back to limiting Scottish discussion to Scottish threads. There should be a couple in the next couple of days."
sounds like PB circa 2011.
The day Farage cowers in the face of mainstream media and political class hectoring and manufactures outrage over 'Putin' (they don't get a surname when we're really cross with them), and his 'regime' (they become 'regimes' as opposed to 'governments' when we would prefer someone else to be in power) is the day he becomes utterly pointless.
As is 30 others by the way. 18 NI leaves 12 others for the SNP (currently 6), PC, the Greens and UKIP. Frankly absurd.
Yes, the mainstream media and political class (which let us not kid ourselves, UKIP are now a part of the latter as much as anyone else) are never right about anything.
They were quite remarkable too
If only Putin restricted himself to locking up journalists.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_killed_in_Russia
But is there not a quantum uncertainty effect likely to happen here. Actually speculating on a possibility, the observation, of something happening will create uncertainty of it actually happening.
Or perhaps it should be dubbed the manhole cover effect.
Generally speaking people do not fall down open manholes - they see them coming. So this speculation by its existence might be avoided by those with their eyes open and with fears about what lies beyond the dark open aperture. A lot of those wide apprehensive eyes would no doubt be in England.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7af4252c-ab03-11e4-91d2-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3QcT53yG1
"Mr Varoufakis said the government would maintain a primary budget surplus — after interest payments — of 1 to 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product, even if this meant Syriza, the leftwing party that dominates the ruling coalition, would not fulfil all the public spending promises on which it was elected."
Pulpstar seems like he is having good bets laying that at 4/6 while the Tories poll ratings flatline
Who would prop up the Tories? Who would not prop up labour if it meant a Tory minority otherwise?
Can't imagine a cleggless lib dems or the SNP
Ukip unlikely to win enough seats to do a deal and even if they did may say ' no Cameron'
Could be wrong it's an open heat... Is lab/LD coaltion a big price at 12/1?
The Scottish results will mark the end and sharp reversal of a 60 year trend, at least of Con relative to Labour.
14.5 on Betfair
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/marketactivity?id=1.101416490&selectionId=1405187
Therefore the individual has to be able to spot baloney. And this ridiculous Dick Dastardly cartoon character with an itchy invade finger they have made out of Putin is grade A baloney. Someone who ACTUALLY ruled a horrible regime recently died - we flew the flag at Westminster Abbey half mast for him.
Mike the cherry picker because the yellows are suffering.
And you've no idea what data I'm working with over the past 30 years. Still, if it makes you happy to keep your head in the sand Mike, then be my guest. You've been wrong most of this parliament.
Belfast West Conservative gain no doubt.
http://www.englishdemocrats.org.uk/latest-news/item/423-english-democrasts-ge2015/423-english-democrasts-ge2015.html
I presume you now accept hard crossover did not happen in January as you predicted despite your bullish Tweets a week ago.
In fact as at today Lab appear still slightly ahead?
Still bullish on the 90%+ chance of overall Con Maj?
If someone had £500 on it it'd probably go odds on!
Some people are off to the poorhouse on May 8th...
I'll scroll down.
I report the L&N model output without comment, other than to mention some caveats.
There have been quite a few studies on it. I remember studying it back in the day http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/2746774?sid=21105239518451&uid=70&uid=4&uid=3738032&uid=2129&uid=2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coattail_effect
http://uspolitics.about.com/od/politicalterminology/g/coattails.htm
Although you may be suggesting the inverse. If you vote one way locally will that make you likely to vote the same 'nationally.'
I am hoping the election might tempt him back.
I dont understand why we do not know whether there was a January crossover. Aren't all January numbers now out or am i missing something?
Please can you explain? Sorry if I am being thick
Rod if you are still around, what is your present thought on the election outcome?
It's going to be one of the most interesting GE campaigns of my life I think.
He was always cheerful and polite, and he could wind up his opponents with kindness.
Yup, hard to relate polling now to any previous election. There is no certainty that any methodology it's accurate.
So if there is a Tory/Kipper waverer who has already voted UKIP once in a local or Euro election I would say they are more likely to vote UKIP in the GE than a waverer who hasn't taken that psychological step yet. But what does a local election on the same day do? If the waverer starts thinking they will vote UKIP in the less important local election, does that push them further towards a UKIP GE vote? Or have they done their "rebelling" for the day and feel happier giving the Tories their vote in the GE?
But mainly 'cos it's neck and neck
Lab maj - OUT
Con maj - Possible
Con most seats - Likely
Lab net loss of seats - Possible
All it did was boost turnout in council elections held on a General Election day.
He was also very funny during Andy Murry's win at Wimbledon with his commentary on Alex Salmond. A
Leader of the House, but that counted.
I really wish all the polls published are adjusted to reflect their historical degree of inaccuracy. If Labour was truly leading in the polls, we wouldn't have the Shadow Cabinet rehearsing for Julius Caesar's final gathering of his closest friends.
Listening to Ed Bland today, he really doesn't understand the irony of him criticising people who engage in lawful tax avoidance when that is precisely what he and his family did to avoid inheritance tax on his father's estate.
http://www.vox.com/2015/2/2/7965911/obamacare-cost
And that's before you get to the extra money it brings in via taxes. Like Clinton before him, Obama is a great deficit hawk. We need another Democrat so we don't get another Reagan/Bush-style spending binge.
I wouldn't like to speculate on the outcome of the European Elections held on the same day as a General Election.
As an aside the Scottish Parliament elections were meant to happen on the same day as this year's general election.
It was agreed to push it back one year.
They took advantage of Ralph's lawful tax allowance, by the lawful device of deed of variation.
No tax was in fact mitigated at the time, and may never be, as Mrs. Miliband has had 20 years to lawfully mitigate tax herself.
The manoeuvre they undertook has since been superceded by statue, in the 2008 Finance Act.
Is it just me or was that the biggest crock of shite?
Vow++
Vow^2
Labour trying to be everything to everyman here... Not wanting to abandon the "shared benefits" of the union that they campaigned on during the referendum, they are left with the weak beer of additional powers to vary welfare - effectively Holyrood can lump in more cash, which won't cause any problems with the view of Scottish subsidy junkies. Add in the clusterfeck waiting to happen decoupling of housing benefit form universal credit, supposedly so they can Reverse The Bedroom Tax (tm).
All just comes across as back of the fag packet panic.
Is this really what Labour will stand on in Scotland?
Bloody Hell and i have an applied statistics degree too, only a 2.2 though
Long time ago too mind.
Sheffield Poly. Herriot House. Funnily enough i do remember spending a lot of time in
http://www.theoldqueenshead.co.uk/history.html